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The decarbonization of the power sector plays a pivotal role in economy-wide decarbonization to set the world on track to limit warming to 1.5{\deg}C by 2050. Carbon emission markets can play a significant role in this transition by putting a price on carbon and giving electricity producers an incentive to reduce their emissions. In this paper, we study the operational equilibrium of an integrated regional/jurisdictional energy system that comprises an electricity market, a natural gas market, and a carbon emission market. We first propose the novel role of a regional carbon market operator (CMO). Different than the conventional cap-and-trade carbon trading mechanism, the proposed CMO manages carbon allowance trading in a centralized jurisdictional carbon emission market. We then develop the formulation to identify the operational equilibrium of the electricity, natural gas, and carbon emission markets based on their interactions. The proposed equilibrium can be obtained by solving the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions of all three operational models simultaneously. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach is more flexible, consistent, and effective in mitigating carbon emissions compared with the cap-and-trade mechanism.

The retirement of unabated coal power plants, the plummeting cost of renewable energy technologies, along with more aggressive public policies and regulatory reforms, are occurring at an unprecedented speed to decarbonize the power and energy systems towards the 2030 and 2050 climate goals. This article aims to establish a carbon-oriented framework to examine the role carbon emission is playing within a power grid that is rapidly transitioning to an integrated multi-energy system. We divide the carbon flows in the multi-energy systems into three stages: carbon allowances initialization/allocation, exchanging/pricing, and circulation. Then, we discuss how cross-disciplinary technologies, such as game theory, optimization, and machine learning can facilitate the modeling and analysis of the proposed framework.

While the advanced machine learning algorithms are effective in load forecasting, they often suffer from low data utilization, and hence their superior performance relies on massive datasets. This motivates us to design machine learning algorithms with improved data utilization. Specifically, we consider the load forecasting for a new user in the system by observing only few shots (data points) of its energy consumption. This task is challenging since the limited samples are insufficient to exploit the temporal characteristics, essential for load forecasting. Nonetheless, we notice that there are not too many temporal characteristics for residential loads due to the limited kinds of human lifestyle. Hence, we propose to utilize the historical load profile data from existing users to conduct effective clustering, which mitigates the challenges brought by the limited samples. Specifically, we first design a feature extraction clustering method for categorizing historical data. Then, inheriting the prior knowledge from the clustering results, we propose a two-phase Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model to conduct load forecasting for new users. The proposed method outperforms the traditional LSTM model, especially when the training sample size fails to cover a whole period (i.e., 24 hours in our task). Extensive case studies on two real-world datasets and one synthetic dataset verify the effectiveness and efficiency of our method., Comment: *The first two authors contributed equally to this work, and hence are co-first authors of this work. C. Wu is the corresponding author. This work was supported in part by the Shenzhen Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics for Society

Smart meter devices enable a better understanding of the demand at the potential risk of private information leakage. One promising solution to mitigating such risk is to inject noises into the meter data to achieve a certain level of differential privacy. In this paper, we cast one-shot non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) in the compressive sensing framework, and bridge the gap between theoretical accuracy of NILM inference and differential privacy's parameters. We then derive the valid theoretical bounds to offer insights on how the differential privacy parameters affect the NILM performance. Moreover, we generalize our conclusions by proposing the hierarchical framework to solve the multi-shot NILM problem. Numerical experiments verify our analytical results and offer better physical insights of differential privacy in various practical scenarios. This also demonstrates the significance of our work for the general privacy preserving mechanism design.

Energy storage has exhibited great potential in providing flexibility in power system to meet critical peak demand and thus reduce the overall generation cost, which in turn stabilizes the electricity prices. In this work, we exploit the opportunities for the independent system operator (ISO) to invest and manage storage as public asset, which could systematically provide benefits to the public. Assuming a quadratic generation cost structure, we apply parametric analysis to investigate the ISO's problem of economic dispatch, given variant quantities of storage investment. This investment is beneficial to users on expectation. However, it may not necessarily benefit everyone. We adopt the notion of marginal system cost impact (MCI) to measure each user's welfare and show its relationship with the conventional locational marginal price. We find interesting convergent characteristics for MCI. Furthermore, we perform $k$-means clustering to classify users for effective user profiling and conduct numerical studies on both prototype and IEEE test systems to verify our theoretical conclusions.

Conventional wisdom to improve the effectiveness of economic dispatch is to design the load forecasting method as accurately as possible. However, this approach can be problematic due to the temporal and spatial correlations between system cost and load prediction errors. This motivates us to adopt the notion of end-to-end machine learning and to propose a task-specific learning criteria to conduct economic dispatch. Specifically, to maximize the data utilization, we design an efficient optimization kernel for the learning process. We provide both theoretical analysis and empirical insights to highlight the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed learning framework.

The start up costs in many kinds of generators lead to complex cost structures, which in turn yield severe market loopholes in the locational marginal price (LMP) scheme. Convex hull pricing (a.k.a. extended LMP) is proposed to improve the market efficiency by providing the minimal uplift payment to the generators. In this letter, we consider a stylized model where all generators share the same generation capacity. We analyze the generators' possible strategic behaviors in such a setting, and then propose an index for market power quantification in the convex hull pricing schemes.

Storage is vital to power systems as it provides the urgently needed flexibility to the system. Meanwhile, it can contribute more than flexibility. In this paper, we study the possibility of utilizing storage system for carbon emission reduction. The opportunity arises due to the pending implementation of carbon tax throughout the world. Without the right incentive, most system operators have to dispatch the generators according to the merit order of the fuel costs, without any control for carbon emissions. However, we submit that storage may provide necessary flexibility in carbon emission reduction even without carbon tax. We identify the non-convex structure to conduct storage control for this task and propose an easy to implement dynamic programming algorithm to investigate the value of storage in carbon emission reduction.

To enable an efficient electricity market, a good pricing scheme is of vital importance. Among many practical schemes, customized pricing is commonly believed to be able to best exploit the flexibility in the demand side. However, due to the large volume of consumers in the electricity sector, such task is simply too overwhelming. In this paper, we first compare two data driven schemes: one based on load profile and the other based on user's marginal system cost. Vulnerability analysis shows that the former approach may lead to loopholes in the electricity market while the latter one is able to guarantee the robustness, which yields our robust data-driven pricing scheme. Although k-means clustering is in general NP-hard, surprisingly, by exploiting the structure of our problem, we design an efficient yet optimal k-means clustering algorithm to implement our proposed scheme.

The ambitious targets for renewable energy penetration warrant huge flexibility in the power system. Such flexibility does not come free. In this paper, we examine the possibility of utilizing storage systems for achieving high renewable energy penetration, and identify the trade-off between providing flexibility and arbitrage against real-time prices. More precisely, we investigate the relationship among the operation cost, storage capacity, and the renewable penetration level. This illustrates the value of storage as well as the true cost induced by the high renewable penetration targets.

Sharing economy has disrupted many industries. We foresee that electricity storage systems could be the enabler for sharing economy in electricity sector, though its implementation is a delicate task. Unlike in the 2-tier Time-of-Use (ToU) pricing, where greedy arbitrage policy can achieve the maximal electricity bill savings, most existing ToU schemes consist of multiple tiers, which renders the arbitrage challenging. The difficulty comes from the hedging against multiple tiers and the coupling between the decisions across the day. In this work, we focus on designing the energy sharing mechanism for single peaked ToU scheme. To solve the problem, we identify that it suffices to understand the arbitrage policies for two forms of 3-tier ToU schemes. We submit that under mild conditions, the sharing mechanism yields a unique equilibrium, which supports the maximal social welfare.

Dynamic pricing is both an opportunity and a challenge to the demand side. It is an opportunity as it better reflects the real time market conditions and hence enables an active demand side. However, demand's active participation does not necessarily lead to benefits. The challenge conventionally comes from the limited flexible resources and limited intelligent devices in demand side. The decreasing cost of storage system and the widely deployed smart meters inspire us to design a data-driven storage control framework for dynamic prices. We first establish a stylized model by assuming the knowledge and structure of dynamic price distributions, and design the optimal storage control policy. Based on Gaussian Mixture Model, we propose a practical data-driven control framework, which helps relax the assumptions in the stylized model. Numerical studies illustrate the remarkable performance of the proposed data-driven framework., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1911.06963

Data analytics and machine learning techniques are being rapidly adopted into the power system, including power system control as well as electricity market design. In this paper, from an adversarial machine learning point of view, we examine the vulnerability of data-driven electricity market design. More precisely, we follow the idea that consumer's load profile should uniquely determine its electricity rate, which yields a clustering oriented pricing scheme. We first identify the strategic behaviors of malicious users by defining a notion of disguising. Based on this notion, we characterize the sensitivity zones to evaluate the percentage of malicious users in each cluster. Based on a thorough cost benefit analysis, we conclude with the vulnerability analysis.

Renewable energy brings huge uncertainties to the power system, which challenges the traditional power system operation with limited flexible resources. One promising solution is to introduce dynamic pricing to more consumers, which, if designed properly, could enable an active demand side. To further exploit flexibility, in this work, we seek to advice the consumers an optimal online control policy to utilize their storage devices facing dynamic pricing. Towards designing a more adaptive control policy, we devise a data-driven approach to estimating the price distribution. Simulation studies verify the optimality of our proposed schemes.

Conductor galloping is the high-amplitude, low-frequency oscillation of overhead power lines due to wind. Such movements may lead to severe damages to transmission lines, and hence pose significant risks to the power system operation. In this paper, we target to design a prediction framework for conductor galloping. The difficulty comes from imbalanced dataset as galloping happens rarely. By examining the impacts of data balance and data volume on the prediction performance, we propose to employ proper sample adjustment methods to achieve better performance. Numerical study suggests that using only three features, together with over sampling, the SVM based prediction framework achieves an F_1-score of 98.9%.

Users can arbitrage against Time-of-Use (ToU) pricing with storage by charging in off-peak period and discharge in peak periods. In this paper we design the optimal control policy and the solve optimal investment for general ToU scheme. We formulate the problem as dynamic programming for efficient solution. Our result is feasible facing multi-peaked ToU scheme. Simulation studies examine how the user's cost varies with respect to the user's demand randomness; we also demonstrate the performance of our scheme when aggregating users for extra savings.

Online games are the most popular form of entertainment among youngsters as well as elders. Recognized as e-Sports, they may become an official part of the Olympic Games by 2020. However, a long waiting time for matchmaking will largely affect players' experiences. We examine different matchmaking mechanisms for 2v2 games. By casting the mechanisms into a queueing theoretic framework, we decompose the rule design process into a sequence of decision making problems, and derive the optimal mechanism with minimum expected waiting time. We further the result by exploring additional static as well as dynamic rule designs' impacts. In the static setting, we consider the game allows players to choose sides before the battle. In the dynamic setting, we consider the game offers multiple zones for players of different skill levels. In both settings, we examine the value of choice-free players. Closed form expressions for the expected waiting time in different settings illuminate the guidelines for online game rule designs.

We consider the scenario where $N$ utilities strategically bid for electricity in the day-ahead market and balance the mismatch between the committed supply and actual demand in the real-time market, with uncertainty in demand and local renewable generation in consideration. We model the interactions among utilities as a non-cooperative game, in which each utility aims at minimizing its per-unit electricity cost. We investigate utilities' optimal bidding strategies and show that all utilities bidding according to (net load) prediction is a unique pure strategy Nash Equilibrium with two salient properties. First, it incurs no loss of efficiency; hence, competition among utilities does not increase the social cost. Second, it is robust and (0, $N-1$) fault immune. That is, fault behaviors of irrational utilities only help to reduce other rational utilities' costs. The expected market supply-demand mismatch is minimized simultaneously, which improves the planning and supply-and-demand matching efficiency of the electricity supply chain. We prove the results hold under the settings of correlated prediction errors and a general class of real-time spot pricing models, which capture the relationship between the spot price, the day-ahead clearing price, and the market-level mismatch. Simulations based on real-world traces corroborate our theoretical findings. Our study adds new insights to market mechanism design. In particular, we derive a set of fairly general sufficient conditions for the market operator to design real-time pricing schemes so that the interactions among utilities admit the desired equilibrium., Comment: 60 pages, 20 figures, in submission to IEEE Systems Journal

The sharing economy has disrupted housing and transportation sectors. Homeowners can rent out their property when they are away on vacation, car owners can offer ride sharing services. These sharing economy business models are based on monetizing under-utilized infrastructure. They are enabled by peer-to-peer platforms that match eager sellers with willing buyers. Are there compelling sharing economy opportunities in the electricity sector? What products or services can be shared in tomorrow's Smart Grid? We begin by exploring sharing economy opportunities in the electricity sector, and discuss regulatory and technical obstacles to these opportunities. We then study the specific problem of a collection of firms sharing their electricity storage. We characterize equilibrium prices for shared storage in a spot market. We formulate storage investment decisions of the firms as a non-convex non-cooperative game. We show that under a mild alignment condition, a Nash equilibrium exists, it is unique, and it supports the social welfare. We discuss technology platforms necessary for the physical exchange of power, and market platforms necessary to trade electricity storage. We close with synthetic examples to illustrate our ideas., Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures

The expected increase in the penetration of renewables in the approaching decade urges the electricity market to introduce new products - in particular, flexible ramping products - to accommodate the renewables' variability and intermittency. CAISO and MISO are leading the design of the new products. However, it is not clear how such products may affect the electricity market. In this paper, we are specifically interested in assessing how the new products distort the optimal energy dispatch by comparing with the case without such products. The distortion may impose additional cost, which we term as the "distortion cost". Using a functional approach, we establish the relationship between the distortion cost and the key parameters of the new products, i.e., the up and down flexible ramping requirements. Such relationship yields a novel routine to efficiently construct the functions, which makes it possible to efficiently perform the minimal distortion cost energy dispatch while guaranteeing a given supply reliability level. Both theoretical analysis and simulation results suggest that smartly selecting the parameters may substantially reduce the distortion cost. We believe our approach can assist the ISOs with utilizing the ramping capacities in the system at the minimal distortion cost.

Distributed generation resources have become significantly more prevalent in the electric power system over the past few years. This warrants reconsideration on how the coordination of generation resources is achieved. In this paper, we particularly focus on secondary frequency control and how to enhance it by exploiting peer-to-peer communication among the resources. We design a control framework based on a consensus-plus-global-innovation approach, which guarantees bringing the frequency back to its nominal value. The control signals of the distributed resources are updated in response to a global innovation corresponding to the ACE signal, and additional information exchanged via communication among neighboring resources. We show that such a distributed control scheme can be very well approximated by a PI controller and can stabilize the system. Moreover, since our control scheme takes advantage of both the ACE signal and peer-to-peer communication, simulation results demonstrate that our control scheme can stabilize the system significantly faster than the AGC framework. Also, an important feature of our scheme is that it performs $c\epsilon$-close to the centralized optimal economic dispatch, where $c$ is a positive constant depending only on the cost parameters and the communication topology and $\epsilon$ denotes the maximum rate of change of overall system., Comment: Submitted for publication