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Considering that co-feeding transmission depends on the loads of infected ticks on each host, we develop a tick-borne disease dynamics model with co-feeding transmission probability peaking at an intermediate level of infected tick loads. We stratify tick and host population by their infection status and divide the vector population in terms of infection status and post-egg stages (larvae, nymphs and adults). We use the tick population dynamics and disease spread basic reproduction numbers and co-feeding transmission characteristics to describe the disease endemic structure, and show, for the first time, that density-dependent co-feeding transmission provides a novel mechanism for bi-stability. Numerical simulations based on parameters from laboratory and fields data confirm the possibility of bi-stability in biologically realistic settings, and sensitivity analyses show that the nymphal tick load value at which the co-feeding transmission probability reaches the maximum impacts most significantly on the stable endemic equilibrium value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a predator-prey system with strong Allee effect in prey and intraspecific competition in predator. We divide the parameter space into several mutually exclusive regions, and for each region we give a rather complete description of the global dynamics including equilibrium stability, Hopf bifurcation and its directions, existence of a heteroclinic orbit loop, a homoclinic orbit loop and limit cycles. In comparison with systems without the Allee effect in prey and systems without the intraspecific competition in predator, we find that the Allee effect in prey and the over-exploitation of the prey by the predator may drive the extinction of two species, but the intraspecific competition in the predator can generate "hydra effect" that regulates the population size of both predator and prey by suppressing the over-exploitation of prey, improving the probability of survivals of two species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the local and global existence and uniqueness of strict solution and the local well-posedness for a class of abstract "explicit" neutral integro-differential equations with state-dependent delay. In the last section some examples motivated by explicit neutral ordinary integro-differential equations arising in the theory of population dynamics are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Restoration of the medial support is especially important for the treatment of proximal humeral fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate the radiographic and clinical outcomes of intramedullary nail fixation with a special focus on the presence of calcar comminution. Methods: In this retrospective study of patients with displaced proximal humeral fractures that were treated by intramedullary nail between January 2018 and July 2021, fracture morphology and the calcar integrity were noted on preoperative radiographs. Patients were divided into two groups according to calcar integrity. During follow‐up, radiological assessment and functional outcome, including the deltoid tuberosity index (DTI), neck shaft angle (NSA), visual analog scale (VAS), the American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) score, the Simple Shoulder Test (SST) score, active and passive range of motion, were performed. A Student t‐test and univariate logistic regression analysis was used. Results: A total of 83 patients (54 female, 29 male) had complete follow‐up (average, 12.8 months; range, 10 to 33 months) and functional assessment in our study. The average age was 58.6 years (range, 20 to 89 years). The mean loss of NSA was 4° (range, 0°–12°) and no significant difference was found between two groups (p = 0.27). DTI had an average of 1.50 ± 0.19 (range 1.13–2.04). Patients with intact calcar achieved greater range of forward elevation (129.06 ± 11.91 vs. 121.05 ± 11.97, p = 0.01), and higher SST scores (8.61 ± 1.85 vs. 7.37 ± 2.22, p = 0.02). Two groups showed similar outcomes in VAS, ASES score, and range of abduction. One patient demonstrated a proximal interlocking screw cutting through and osteonecrosis of the humeral head, who underwent a second surgery for screw removal. There were no cases of infection, malunion, nonunion, nerve injury, subacromial impingement, or rotator cuff tear during the study period. Conclusion: Intramedullary nail can favorably be used to manage proximal humeral fractures with good early radiographic and functional outcomes, even for those with comminuted calcar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Proximal humeral fractures with increasing incidence are common over the past decades. Among them, the complicated and displaced ones, especially combined with the proximal third humeral shaft fractures, need to be treated surgically. Humeral intramedullary nail and locking plate are the most frequently used options. However, few studies address the application of nail‐plate combination for management. Case presentation: A 49‐year‐old man struck by a car was referred to our emergency trauma center. The X‐ray and three‐dimensional computed tomography (CT) showed a complex proximal humeral fracture with proximal third shaft fracture. No evidence of other associated injuries and neurovascular symptom of the injured left upper limb was shown by physical examination. Nail‐plate fixation was performed to restore the anatomic integrity of proximal humerus. The injured arm was maintained in a broad arm sling for 14 days after surgery. The active as well as positive movements under the instruction were encouraged as long as the pain could be tolerated from postoperative day 2. One year after the surgery, the fracture was healed, and the patient regained normal shoulder motion. The good clinical outcomes were obtained by application of nail‐plate fixation to treat complex proximal third humeral shaft fractures. Thus, this surgical intervention could be performed as an alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We argue that self-regulation in tick population dynamics in the natural world is not associated with the egg-production saturation, that was normally assumed in existing literature and modeled using the Ricker reproduction function. We argue that the nonlinearity and self-regulatory inhibition appear in the synergistic effect of tick cooperation and the crowding within groups, and an appropriate nonlinearity can be the sub-linear Gamma-Ricker function. We also noticed that the diapaused development leads to multiple time lags in a structured tick population dynamics model, leading to a scalar delay differential equation with two time lags appearing in the sub-linear Gamma-Ricker nonlinearity. This model has always one and only one positive equilibrium. Here we develop sharp conditions for this model to exhibit persistence and global convergence behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We represent the optimal control functions by neural networks and solve optimal control problems by deep learning techniques. Adjoint sensitivity analysis is applied to train the neural networks embedded in differential equations. This method can not only be applied in classic epidemic control problems, but also in epidemic forecasting, discovering unknown mechanisms, and the ideas behind can give new insights to traditional mathematical epidemiological problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a coupled system of delay-algebraic equations to describe tick attaching and host grooming behaviors in the tick-host interface, and use the model to understand how this tick-host interaction impacts the tick population dynamics. We consider two critical state variables, the loads of feeding ticks on host and the engorged ticks on the ground for ticks in a particular development stage (nymphal stage) and show that the model as a coupled system of delay differential equation and an algebraic (integral) equation may have rich structures of equilibrium states, leading to multi-stability. We perform asymptotic analyses and use the implicit function theorem to characterize the stability of these equilibrium states, and show that bi-stability and quadri-stability occur naturally in several combinations of tick attaching and host grooming behaviours. In particular, we show that in the case when host grooming is triggered by the tick biting, the system will have three stable equilibrium states including the extinction state, and two unstable equilibrium states. In addition, the two nontrivial stable equilibrium states correspond to a low attachment rate and a large number of feeding ticks, and a high attachment rate and a small number of feeding ticks, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Yb3+/Er3+ co-doped double perovskite Ba 2 SrWO 6 phosphors were prepared through a solid-state reaction. • XRD and rietveld refinement demonstrate the lanthanide substitution led to the reduction of cell volume. • Upconversion properties were studied under 980 and 1550 nm excitation. • Fluorescence intensity ratio and lifetime-based temperature sensing behaviors were evaluated. All inorganic double perovskites have been adopted as photo-luminescent hosts due to their high stability, absorption coefficient and carrier mobility. Various photo-luminescent properties are being investigated in double perovskites including infrared emitting, upconverting, afterglowing, temperature sensing and so on. Taking advantage of the Boltzmann distributed energy levels, erbium ions are gifted as spectral temperature sensing centers. Here, we synthesized Er3+ doped monoclinic Ba 2 SrWO 6 (BSWO) double perovskites and carried out a series of examinations for their upconverting as well as temperature sensing characteristics. Upon 980 and 1550 nm excitation, the upconversion processes are determined by the relationship between emission intensities against excitation powers. The optical temperature sensitivities are evaluated by exploiting fluorescence intensity ratio (FIR) and lifetime, where the maximum values for FIR and lifetime sensitivities are 14.3 × 10−3 and 2.2 × 10−3 K−1 respectively, suggesting that Er3+ doped double perovskites hold great potential for the development of novel optical temperature sensing materials. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Co-feeding is a mode of pathogen transmission for a wide range of tick-borne diseases where susceptible ticks can acquire infection from co-feeding with infected ticks on the same hosts. The significance of this transmission pathway is determined by the co-occurrence of ticks at different stages in the same season. Taking this into account, we formulate a system of differential equations with tick population dynamics and pathogen transmission dynamics highly regulated by the seasonal temperature variations. We examine the global dynamics of the model systems, and show that the two important ecological and epidemiological basic reproduction numbers can be used to fully characterize the long-term dynamics, and we link these two important threshold values to efficacy of co-feeding transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transparent polycrystalline ceramics (TPCs) are crystalline materials with single‐crystal‐like transparency, which, however, have to rely on fabrication processes with a relatively high cost. Here, we produced lab‐scale TPCs based on the typical refractory Y2O3‐Al2O3 system, through full congruent crystallization of the parent glass prepared by aerodynamic levitation melting method. Doping of the glass and TPCs by rare‐earth (RE) ions (Ce3+, Tb3+, Nd3+, and Yb3+) and transition‐metal (TM) ions (Cr3+) results in strong visible and near‐infrared (NIR) photoluminescence with high quantum yield. The dominance of Stark splitting of the emission band for RE and TM ions in the TPCs as compared with that of the glass confirms crystallization of the parent glasses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a coupled system of delay differential equations for a single-species tick population dynamics, assuming feeding adult ticks are distributed by their hosts in a spatially heterogeneous environment consisting of two patches where egg ticks produced will complete their life cycles with different, normal and diapause, developmental delays. We show that the mobility of adult tick host and the diapause developmental delay combined drive a synchronized oscillation in the total tick populations around a uniquely defined positive equilibrium, and this synchronization makes the oscillatory patterns much simpler in comparison with multi-peak oscillations exhibited in the absence of host mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The restructuring of railway systems has been widely analyzed around the world, while the empirical evidence from the Chinese railway industry is few, despite its significant market scale and unique organizational structure. This study aims to construct and estimate a hedonic cost function for Chinese railway system using the panel data on 18 Regional Railway Administrations (RRAs) of 2006–2017 period. The returns to density (RTD), the returns to scale (RTS), the cost complementarities and the economies of scope (SC) are estimated. The key findings and policy implications are as follows: (1). RTD and RTS of RRAs are 3.56 and 1.19, respectively, suggesting very significant returns to density and slight returns to scale at RRA level. (2). 1% increase in passenger output would increase the marginal costs of freight operations and network infrastructure by 0.233% and 0.808%, respectively. 1% increase in freight output would increase the marginal costs of passenger operations and network infrastructure by 0.486% and 0.735%, respectively. 1% increase in network infrastructure would increase the marginal costs of passenger operations and freight operations by 0.809% and 0.736%, respectively. (3). The economy of scope (SC) between passenger operation and freight operation is −0.189, implying no existence of economy of scope. (4) Based on these estimated results, 18 RRAs are suggested to be consolidated into several larger scale ones, and a separation between passenger and freight operations could be suitable for Chinese railway sector in terms of short-run cost efficiency improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Disease surveillance is central to the public health understanding of pertussis epidemiology. In Canada, public reporting practices have significantly changed over time, creating challenges in accurately characterizing pertussis epidemiology. Debate has emerged over whether pertussis resurged after the introduction of adsorbed pertussis vaccines (1981-1985), and if the incidence fell to its pre-1985 after the introduction of acellular pertussis vaccines (1997-1998). Here, we aim to assemble a unified picture of pertussis disease incidence in Canada.Methods: Using publicly available pertussis surveillance reports, we collected, analyzed and presented Canadian pertussis data for the period (1924-2015), encompassing the pre-vaccine era, introduction of vaccine, changes to vaccine technology, and the introduction of booster doses. Information on age began to be reported since 1952, but age reporting practices (full, partial or no ages) have evolved over time, and varied across provinces/territories. For those cases reported without age each year, we impute an age distribution by assuming it follows that of the age-reported cases.Results: Below the age of 20 years, the adjusted age-specific incidence from 1969 to 1988 is substantially higher than existing estimates. In children < 1 year, the incidence in some years was comparable to that during the 1988-1999 resurgence.Conclusions: The results presented here suggest that the surge in the average yearly incidence of pertussis that began in 1988 was weaker than previously inferred, and in contrary to the past findings, below age 5, the average yearly incidence of pertussis from 1999 to 2015 (when the incidence dropped again) has been lower than it was from 1969 to 1988. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the approximate controllability of a general class of first order abstract control differential problems with state-dependent delay. To this end, we establish and prove several new results on local and global existence and uniqueness of mild and strict solutions for abstract differential equations with state-dependent delay. In the last section, some examples are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a general impulsive reaction-diffusion equation with shifting environment and birth pulse, both induced by climate changes, to capture essential features of the dynamics of species exhibiting distinct stages of reproduction and dispersal. We convert this model into a discrete-time semiflow, and hence to a discrete-time recursion system. We establish the existence of forced waves and asymptotic spreading properties of solutions, and obtain sufficient conditions for the global asymptotic stability of the forced waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pursuit of efficient light sources has stimulated continued effort in the search of materials and methods for generating white light emission. In addition to the white light produced by light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and fluorescent lamps that involves spectral conversion of high energy to low energy emission, recent studies showed that it was also possible to produce white visible light by irradiating different active materials with near-infrared (NIR) constant-wave (CW) lasers. In this review, we begin by introducing and categorizing different materials that exhibit NIR laser driven white light emission, including normal inorganic phosphors, organometallic compounds, graphene, etc. We then discuss the photophysical behavior of this process in terms of optical spectra, temperature evolution and photoelectric response. Different mechanisms of while light generation are analyzed afterwards, and the possibility of a more general physical picture of this process is discussed. This review is concluded with a summary of the current understanding and discussion on potential applications and future perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health interventions have been implemented to mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Ontario, Canada; however, the quantification of their effectiveness remains to be done and is important to determine if some of the social distancing measures can be relaxed without resulting in a second wave. We aim to equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with mathematical model-based quantification of implemented public health measures and estimation of the trend of COVID-19 in Ontario to inform future actions in terms of outbreak control and de-escalation of social distancing. Our estimates confirm that (1) social distancing measures have helped mitigate transmission by reducing daily infection contact rate, but the disease transmission probability per contact remains as high as 0.145 and case detection rate was so low that the effective reproduction number remained higher than the threshold for disease control until the closure of non-essential business in the Province; (2) improvement in case detection rate and closure of non-essential business had resulted in further reduction of the effective control number to under the threshold. We predict the number of confirmed cases according to different control efficacies including a combination of reducing further contact rates and transmission probability per contact. We show that improved case detection rate plays a decisive role to reduce the effective reproduction number, and there is still much room in terms of improving personal protection measures to compensate for the strict social distancing measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Vector co-occurrence in hosts impacts co-feeding vector-borne disease transmission. • Attachment and grooming behaviors determine vector-over-host distribution patterns. • A dynamic model provides insight on bistability and oscillation pattern formation. Towards gaining a mechanistic understanding of the co-feeding transmission dynamics of tick-borne diseases, we develop a delay differential equation model for vector-host population dynamics. In addition to the intrinsic demographic dynamics of both vector and host populations, the model has the distribution dynamics of vector individuals on hosts governed by vector attachment and host grooming behaviour. We introduce the concept of basic infestation number, derive analytic formulae for calculating it and use these formulae to characterize the distribution patterns. We also show how some of these patterns naturally lead to bi-stability and nonlinear oscillations in the vector and host populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the existence and uniqueness of mild and strict solutions for abstract neutral differential equations with state-dependent delay. Some examples related to partial neutral differential equations are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kappa-opioid receptor (KOR) is a member of G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) expressed in serotonergic neurons and neuronal terminals. The involvement of KOR ligands in nociception, diuresis, emotion, cognition, and immune system has been extensively studied. Omics-based methods are preferable to understand the signaling cascade after KOR activation in a systematic manner. In this study, an in-depth quantitative phosphoproteomic analysis resulted in 305 phosphosites, which were significantly changed in three KOR-overexpressed cells upon treatment with two KOR agonists. The subsequent substrate-kinase prediction analysis revealed that 18 potential kinases might be activated under stimulation of the agonists. We found that phosphorylation of PAK1/2 (p21-activated kinase 1/2) was induced by KOR agonists, resulting in reduced actin stress fibers and cytoskeletal reorganization. In summary, this quantitative phosphoproteomics-based research studied the downstream phosphorylation events upon KOR activation, which may shed light on the investigations of KOR signaling pathway and targeted therapy for KOR-related diseases. • Quantitative phosphoproteomic analysis of KOR-overexpressed cells upon KOR agonists treatments. • Downstream Kinase-Substrate Network of KOR activation was revealed. • Phosphorylation of PAK1/2 by KOR agonists resulted in reduced actin stress fiber and cytoskeletal reorganization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2022–2023 Mpox multi-country outbreak, identified in over 110 WHO Member States, revealed a predominant impact on cisgender men, particularly those engaging in sex with men, while less frequently affecting women. This disparity prompted a focused investigation into the gender-specific characteristics of Mpox infections, particularly among women, to address a notable knowledge gap. This review systematically gathers and analyzes the scientific literature and case reports concerning Mpox infections in women, covering a broad geographical spectrum including regions such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Nigeria, Europe, Vietnam, and the United States. The analysis delves into various aspects of Mpox in women, including clinical features, epidemiology, psychological impacts, preparedness strategies, and case studies, with particular attention to pregnant women and those with underlying health conditions. Empirical data from multiple studies underscore the unique epidemiological and clinical patterns of Mpox in women. In the United States, a small percentage of Mpox cases were reported among cisgender women, with a notable portion involving non-Hispanic Black or African American, non-Hispanic White, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicities. The primary transmission route was identified as sexual or close intimate contact, with the virus predominantly manifesting on the legs, arms, and genital areas. Further, a study in Spain highlighted significant disparities in diagnosis delays, transmission modes, and clinical manifestations between genders, indicating a different risk profile and disease progression in women. Additionally, a case from Vietnam, linked to a new Mpox sub-lineage in women, emphasized the role of women in the transmission dynamics and the importance of genomic monitoring. This review emphasizes the necessity for inclusive surveillance and research to fully understand Mpox dynamics across diverse population groups, including women. Highlighting gender and sexual orientation in public health responses is crucial for an effective approach to managing the spread and impact of this disease. The findings advocate for a gender-diverse assessment in health services and further research to explore the nuances of Mpox transmission, behavior, and progression among different groups, thereby enhancing the global response to Mpox and similar public health challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key characteristic of acute communicable diseases is the infectiousness that varies over time as the infection dynamics evolve within a host, which influences the risk of transmission in different stages of the disease. Despite the evidence of time-varying transmission risk, most dynamic models of epidemics assume a constant transmission rate during the infectious period. Recent work has shown the difference in epidemic dynamics when this assumption is relaxed and different transmission rates are used by discretizing the infectious period into multiple sub-periods. Here, we develop an age-structured model to integrate a continuous time-varying transmission risk, based on an established correlation between the viral dynamics and infectiousness profile. Taking into account the natural history and parameter estimates of COVID-19 caused by the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, we demonstrate the difference in temporal epidemic dynamics when a continuous time-varying transmission probability is used as compared to multiple constant transmission probabilities. Our results show a significant difference between the incidence curves in terms of the magnitude and peak time, even when the reproduction number and total number of infections are the same for continuous and discrete transmission probabilities. Finally, we demonstrate the spurious outcome of preventing an epidemic through the isolation of infectious individuals when constant transmission probabilities are used, highlighting the importance of integrating a continuous time-dependent transmission parameter in dynamic models. These findings suggest a more cautious interpretation of model outcomes, especially those that are intended to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions for disease mitigation strategies. • Time-varying transmission risk plays a significant role in epidemic dynamics. • Effectiveness of interventions are affected by transmission risk during infectious period. • Epidemic models should account for within-host infectiousness in disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Landscape pattern critically affects hydrological cycling and the processes of non-point source nutrients pollution. However, little is known about the quantitative relationship between landscape characteristics and the river water quality, and very few studies have addressed the abrupt changes in river water quality with the gradient of landscape metrics. The present study was conducted in a typically intensive agriculture watershed of eastern China including 13 sub-watersheds with different landscape pattern metrics. We adopted redundancy analysis, nonparametric deviance reduction approach, bootstrap sampling and other statistical methods to reveal the quantitative relationship between landscape pattern metrics and water quality variables; then, the phenomenon of an abrupt change in river water quality was explored with different landscape pattern gradients. The results show that landscape pattern significantly affects river water quality, and this effect was quite different in dry and rainy seasons. In the studied watershed, landscape pattern metrics could respectively explain 71.1% and 55.3% of the total variance in the river water quality in dry and rainy seasons. The configuration metrics of landscape pattern had a stronger ability than their composition metrics to explain the variance in water quality. In the dry season, largest patch index of forestland (LPI for), the most important landscape index, explained 37.9% of the total variance in water quality. While, in the rainy season, the most important landscape index was the largest patch index of farmland (LPI far), and it could explain 32.4% of that variance. In the studied watershed, when the LPI for was <35% or LPI far was over than 50%, water quality would typically change abruptly, at which the probability of a change in river water would suddenly rise substantially. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Change in landscape pattern inevitably affected NPS pollution. • We analyzed the quantitative relationship between landscape pattern and water quality. • Landscape pattern factors affect water quality more significantly in the dry season. • The most effect factor on water quality was the largest forest land patch index. • We examined the phenomenon of the abrupt change in water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To radiographically characterize the relationship between inferior displacement of great tuberosity (GT) fracture and associated occult or minor displaced humeral neck fracture.Methods: Thirty patients with inferior displacement of the GT on the initial anterior-posterior (AP) view X-ray were included in this study. Twenty-four patients received further computed tomography (CT) scans. One patient with negative CT scans underwent MRI. Radiographic indexes included the cervico-diaphyseal angle, the distance of the inferior displacement of the GT fracture, the apex-tuberosity distance, and the direction of the GT shift on the 3D-CT scan. The measurement reliability was analyzed by calculating intra-class correlation (ICC) coefficients. The relationships between the parameters were revealed using Pearson correlation analysis.Results: In the 30 cases, humeral neck fractures were detected by AP view X-ray (6 cases), CT (23 cases), and MRI (1 case). The mean cervico-diaphyseal angle was 146.7° ± 8.9°. The mean inferior displacement of the GT fracture was 13.4 ± 5.9 mm. The mean apex-tuberosity distance was 11.8 ± 2.8 mm. Posterior/inferior displacement of the GT fractures was observed in 24 patients via CT scan. All the evaluated parameters presented correlations among methods, indicating intra-rater and inter-rater reliability. The Pearson correlation analysis revealed that inferior displacement of GT fracture was correlated with the cervico-diaphyseal angle (P < 0.05).Conclusion: The inferior displacement of GT fracture on AP view X-ray is a useful diagnostic clue for the early recognition of occult humeral neck fracture and may indicate the need for further CT/MRI examination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important adaptive mechanism for ticks in respond to variable climate is diapause. Incorporating this physiological mechanism into a tick population dynamics model results in a delay differential system with multiple delays. Here, we consider a mechanistic model that takes into consideration of the development diapause by both larvae and nymph ticks, which share a common set of hosts. We introduce the concept of parametric trigonometric functions (convex combinations of two trigonometric functions with different oscillation frequencies) and explore their qualitative properties to derive an explicit formula of the critical diapause portion for the Hopf bifurcation to take place. Our work shows analytically that diapause can generate complex oscillations even though seasonality is not included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aim to show how a neural network based machine learning pro-jective clustering algorithm, Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART), can be effectively used to provide data-informed sports decisions. We illus-trate this data-driven decision recommendation for AS Roma player market in the Summer 2018 season, using the two separate databases of fourty-seven attributes taken from Football Manager 2018 for each of the twenty-four soccer player, with the first including players of the AS Roma squad 2017-18, and the second consisting of all players linked with transfer moves to AS Roma. This is high dimensional data as players should be grouped only in terms of their performance with respect to a small subset of attributes. Projective clustering analyses provide a purely data-driven analysis to identify critical attributes and attribute characteristics for a group of players to form a natural cluster (in lower dimensional data space) in an unsupervised way. By merging the two databases, our unsupervised clustering analysis provides evidence-based recommendations about the club team formation, and in particular, the deci-sion to buy and sell players within the same clusters, under different scenarios including financial constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two or more groups with different initial opinions can develop into a consensus with appropriate inter- and intra group interactions and communication delay. Here we consider the case when zero is a semi-simple eigenvalue of the normalized connection matrix, and we expand the concept of consensus where opinions of all individual agents must converge to the common (consensus) value to the weak consensus where opinions are clustered and the consensus value is no longer a scalar constant but a vector in a certain consensus subspace. The linearity of the system enables us to adopt an argument of Atay, using the phase space decomposition in terms of the standard bilinear form for functional differential equations, to derive sharp conditions for the system to reach a weak consensus, and to calculate the consensus vector. This calculation also informs how the consensus value of the coupled systems depends on the consensus of the subgroups, initial conditions and communication delay. We also point out the challenge of extending these results to nonlinear versions of the opinion dynamical systems with delay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the issues of high-speed rail (HSR) tariff and its impact on equity have always been a hot topic in China, which also attracted the attention of international researchers, research on the level of HSR tariff from the perspective of individual affordability and equity issue have scarcely been considered. This study therefore aims to fill the research gap by quantifying the HSR relative tariff level and its impact on income/regional distribution via introducing a HSR affordability index. Based on the index, we calculate the HSR affordability levels of the main international sample countries with the order of magnitude. Then we expand the analysis of HSR affordability level according to differentiated HSR pricing practice in the selected countries. At the same time, we compare the HSR tariff impact on economic equity among different countries, regions, and social classes. The result indicates that although the absolute level of HSR tariff is low, China is generally in the middle/the lowest and unbalanced position among the sample countries on HSR affordability in terms of expensiveness and economic equity. When we considered the differentiated tariff policy implemented in Europe and Japan, the affordability gap between China and the other countries is further enlarged. Moreover, inequitable distribution of HSR affordability between different income groups and social classes are found larger not only within China, but also higher when compared to the other sample countries. Finally, we conclude that China should implement differentiated HSR pricing system at a larger scale and greater extent based on the Ramsey pricing and Yield management principle to grasp the additional revenue from the high level income group/the developed region and alleviate the economic equity as well. Meanwhile, we also suggest the balance between HSR affordability for passengers themselves and the macro financial affordability for the country as a whole should also be considered in the future HSR pricing regime formulation. • The HSR affordability level and its impact on economic equity are quantified by establishing a HSR affordability index. • Although the HSR tariff level is low, China is in the middle/lowest level among the sample countries on HSR affordability. • In terms of economic equity, China is generally in the unbalanced position among the sample countries. • China should implement differentiated HSR pricing system at a larger scale and greater extent. • China should implement differentiated HSR pricing system at a larger scale and greater extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic behavior investigations of infectious disease models are central to improve our understanding of emerging characteristics of model states interaction. Here, we consider a Susceptible-Infected (SI) model with a general state-dependent delay, which covers an immuno-epidemiological model of pathogen transmission, developed in our early study, using a threshold delay to examine the effects of multiple exposures to a pathogen. The analysis in the previous work showed the appearance of forward as well as backward bifurcations of endemic equilibria when the basic reproductive ratio R 0 is less than unity. The analysis, in the present work, of the endemically infected equilibrium behavior, through the study of a second order exponential polynomial characteristic equation, concludes the existence of a Hopf bifurcation on the upper branch of the backward bifurcation diagram and gives the criteria for stability switches. Furthermore, the inclusion of state-dependent delays is shown to entirely change the dynamics of the SI model and give rise to rich behaviors including periodic, torus and chaotic dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Current X‐ray‐based classification methods cannot describe all distal clavicle fracture (DCF) patterns, especially the osteoligamentous injury pattern of DCFs. We aimed to develop a novel classification based on the osteoligamentous injury pattern of the DCFs and investigated its reliability. Methods: All DCFs from January 2017 to January 2022 were respectively screened and 45 cases (mean age 20–78; male 31, female 14) met the including criteria and were enrolled. Based on their Zanca view X‐ray radiograph and three‐dimensional CT construction images, we analyzed the osteoligamentous injury pattern of each case, particularly the acromioclavicular (AC) and coracoclavicular ligaments and their bone attachment. Then we developed a novel classification method, five types in total, sorting all DCFs according to their lesion manifestations of osteoligamentous complex. Also, we investigated the inter‐ and intra‐observer reliability using kappa value. Results: A novel classification method for DCF was developed, manifesting the avulsion or rupture of conoid and trapezoid ligaments, and involvement of AC joint. Forty‐five cases of DCFs were included in this study. Among them, 11 (24.4%) were Type 1 fracture, three (6.7%) cases were Type 2, six cases (13.3%) were Type 3, 21 (46.7%) were Type 4, four (8.9%) were Type 5. Kappa values for inter‐observer agreement were 0.57 after first evaluation and 0.61 after second evaluation. Intra‐observer agreement was 0.72 for experienced shoulder specialist and 0.63 for radiologist. Conclusion: This new classification method is reliable to use, supplementary to current classification systems, and emphasizes on the osteoligamentous complex injury when opting for the treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis (ZVL) is one of the world’s deadliest and neglected infectious diseases, according to World Health Organization. This disease is one of major human and veterinary medical significance. The sandfly and the reservoir in urban areas remain among the major challenges for the control activities. In this paper, we evaluated five control strategies (positive dog elimination, insecticide impregnated dog collar, dog vaccination, dog treatment, and sandfly population control), considering disease control results and cost-effectiveness. We elaborated a mathematical model based on a set of differential equations in which three populations were represented (human, dog, and sandfly). Humans and dogs were divided into susceptible, latent, clinically ill, and recovery categories. Sandflies were divided into noninfected, infected, and infective. As the main conclusions, the insecticide impregnated dog collar was the strategy that presented the best combination between disease control and cost-effectiveness. But, depending on the population target, the control results and cost-effectiveness of each strategy may differ. More and detailed studies are needed, specially one which optimizes the control considering more than one strategy in activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tuberculosis infection can result in clearance, latent infection, or active disease, with slow or fast progression. A four-dimensional model of in-host tuberculosis infection includes macrophages, T lymphocytes, tuberculosis bacteria, and their interactions. Changes in the infection rate, cell-mediated immunity rate, macrophage loss rate, and bacteria killing rate most affect disease outcomes. Simulations show that a periodic solution can occur. When the infected macrophage killing rate is constant, a backward bifurcation exists and the system is globally stable. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In a model of tuberculosis with relapse, the basic reproduction numberR0includes new and relapse infections. Lyapunov functions help to prove that the global dynamic is completely determined byR0. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling shows that early diagnosis and treatment are more efficient when relapse cases are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, we investigate the local synchronization problem for delayed phase-coupled oscillators with plastic coupling (also referred as a generalized Kuramoto model). By linearizing the phase-coupled oscillators system at a special solution, an approximation phase-coupled system with delay effects is deduced. Moreover, we find the multiplicity of semisimple zero eigenvalue for coupling strength coefficients matrix and the rank of Vandermonde matrix associated initial values are two sensitive factors. The former is closely related to the maximum number of clusters phase of linear coupled system, and the latter determines clusters phase synchronization. As results, both frequency synchronization criteria and phase synchronization criteria are established in this literature. Also, the final synchronization frequency and phase are formulated in terms of coupling strength, initial values and time delay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider nonlinear differential systems with state-dependent delayed impulses (impulses which involve the delayed state of the system for which the delay is state-dependent). Such systems arise naturally from a number of applications and the stability issue is complex due to the state-dependence of the delay. We establish general and applicable results for uniform stability, uniform asymptotic stability and exponential stability of the systems by using the impulsive control theory and some comparison arguments. We show how restrictions on the change rates of states and impulses should be imposed to achieve system’s stability, in comparison with general impulsive delay differential systems with state-dependent delay in the nonlinearity, or the differential systems with constant delays. In our approach, the boundedness of the state-dependent delay is not required but derives from the stability result obtained. Examples are given to demonstrate the sharpness and applicability of our general results and the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The materials, in which multiple properties are coupled, are greatly important for basic research and multifunctional application. Herein we report on the observation, for the first time, of photo-regulated magnetism and photoferroelectric effect in a single-phase material (the single-crystalline multiferroic BiFeO 3 nanoribbons) at room temperature. Our result presented in this paper opens a new route for multifunctionality where optical property, magnetic polarization and ferroelectric polarization can be controlled simultaneously by white-light and magnetic-field and electric-field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

MicroRNA-21 was upexpressed in gastric cancer (GC) indicating that it is a potential diagnostic biomarker for GC. In this study, 50 GC patients and 50 healthy controls were recruited. miR-21 levels in serum and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were quantified using quantitative real-time PCR. CA199, and CEA were measured using electrochemiluminescence assay. The sensitivity and specificity of circulating miR-21, CA199 and CEA in GC diagnosis, the correlation of circulating miR-21 to clinicopathological features, and the diagnostic value of miR-21 in different GC stages were determined. The levels of miR-21 in both serum and PBMCs increased significantly in GC patients comparing to healthy controls; however, no correlation was observed between circulating miR-21 level and clinicopathological features. The sensitivity and specificity of miR-21 in serum and PBMCs, and CA199 and CEA in GC diagnosis were 88.4%, 79.6%, 81.3%, 73.4%, 60.5%, 55.9%, and 68.6%, 59.3%, respectively. The positive prediction rates of circulating miR-21 in GC stages I to IV were all around 90%, while those of CA199 and CEA were around or less than 50%. Our data suggest circulating miR-21 (both in serum and in PBMCs) can serve as a good biomarker for GC and could be used in diagnosis of early (stage I) and late GC (stage IV). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The sensitivity and specificity of blood microRNA-421 (miR-421) as a gastric cancer (GC) biomarker has not been determined. Objective: To investigate the diagnostic value of blood miR-421 as GC biomarker. Materials and methods: miR-421 in serum and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of 90 GC patients and 90 controls was detected by quantitative real-time PCR. The correlation of miR-421 to GC clinicopathological features as well as the diagnostic value of miR-421 comparing to carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) were analyzed. Results: miR-421 increased significantly in GC patients than in controls. miR-421 in either serum or PBMCs had higher sensitivity and specificity than CEA and CA-125 in GC diagnosis. The GC positive prediction rates of miR-421 were also significantly higher than those of CEA and CA-125. Discussion and conclusions: miR-421 in serum or PBMCs may be a new potential diagnostic biomarker for GC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From February to May, 2013, 132 human avian influenza H7N9 cases were identified in China resulting in 37 deaths. We developed a novel, simple and effective compartmental modeling framework for transmissions among (wild and domestic) birds as well as from birds to human, to infer important epidemiological quantifiers, such as basic reproduction number for bird epidemic, bird-to-human infection rate and turning points of the epidemics, for the epidemic via human H7N9 case onset data and to acquire useful information regarding the bird-to-human transmission dynamics. Estimated basic reproduction number for infections among birds is 4.10 and the mean daily number of human infections per infected bird is 3.16*10−5 [3.08*10−5, 3.23*10−5]. The turning point of 2013 H7N9 epidemic is pinpointed at April 16 for bird infections and at April 9 for bird-to-human transmissions. Our result reveals very low level of bird-to-human infections, thus indicating minimal risk of widespread bird-to-human infections of H7N9 virus during the outbreak. Moreover, the turning point of the human epidemic, pinpointed at shortly after the implementation of full-scale control and intervention measures initiated in early April, further highlights the impact of timely actions on ending the outbreak. This is the first study where both the bird and human components of an avian influenza epidemic can be quantified using only the human case data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethnopharmacological relevance The hip of Rosa multiflora Thunb. (HRM) has been traditionally used as a dietary supplement and a herbal remedy for the treatment of various diseases, including inflammation, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis and chronic pain, in China. The current study was to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of the petroleum ether extractive of HRM (PEE) on type II collagen-induced rheumatoid arthritis (CIA) in male Wistar rats. In addition, the anti-inflammatory mechanism(s) of PEE on type II CIA was explored. Materials and methods Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was induced by intradermal injection of bovine type II collagen on Day 1 and Day 8. Starting from Day 13, normal rats were treated with vehicle (serving as the control group); the CIA rats were treated with vehicle (CIA group), dexamethasone (0.25 mg/kg bw per day, p.o.) (a positive control), lei-gong-teng (LGT: 10 mg/kg bw per day, p.o.) (a clinically used Chinese patent medicine in RA therapy) or PEE (12, 36 or 120 mg/kg bw per day, p.o.) for 28 days. Results and conclusions PEE (120 mg/kg bw per day) efficiently attenuated the severity of arthritis in the CIA rats by reducing the mean arthritis severity scores and the fore/hind paw swelling as well as reduced histological changes by decreasing the cartilage surface erosion and cartilage proteoglan depletion. PEE׳s therapeutic effect in RA may involve the inhibition of pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6, in serum and/or the elevation of the activities of hepatic anti-oxidative enzymes including SOD, CAT and GSH-Px. However, the detailed anti-inflammatory mechanism, the main effective components and the interaction between different ingredients in PEE are still not clear and require more studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the question of whether the construction of new high speed lines is the most cost efficient way of solving the rail capacity problems of China. China has the most heavily used rail network in the world and rail traffic has doubled in the last 10 years. Rail continues to have a major share of both passenger and freight markets. The need for a large increase in rail capacity seems clear. If volumes are high enough, there is an argument that system efficiency is maximised by segregating freight and passenger traffic in order to eliminate conflicts between the two and thus maximise capacity utilisation. In Europe this has often been achieved by building new high speed lines for passenger traffic, and leaving existing lines to freight and regional passenger services. It is argued that if a new line has to be constructed, then it is worth the additional cost of providing for high speeds for the extra benefits this brings. This philosophy has been adopted for much of the new construction in China, including the crucial 1300 km Beijing–Shanghai line. But it has been very controversial. It is argued that in Chinese conditions high speed rail is very much more expensive to build than conventional rail. Its construction has led to the Ministry of Railways becoming very heavily in debt, whilst to try to ease the problem high speed rail fares have been set at three times those on conventional rail, reducing the relief to capacity problems by leaving substantial passenger traffic on the existing routes. China, despite its astonishing economic growth in recent decades, remains a relatively poor country and values of time remain low by European standards; moreover they differ enormously between regions. This paper shows that, at existing Chinese values of time, new conventional lines are generally a better solution to Chinese railway capacity problems than high speed rail. Whilst a limited amount of high speed rail construction in the richest and most densely populated parts of the country may be justified, in a country as large and diverse as China, regional differences must be taken into account in determining the appropriate rail investment policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Many studies have investigated the associations between the signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) in the susceptibility to ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). However, the results remain inconsistent. This meta-analysis determined the risk of STAT3 rs744166 polymorphism-conferred UC and CD susceptibility. Materials and Methods: Electronic databases, including PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library, were searched for all eligible studies that evaluated the association between STAT3 rs744166 polymorphisms with UC and CD risk up to August 21, 2014. The pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using fixed- or random-effects models. Results: Twelve studies containing 10298 patients with CD, 4244 patients with UC and 11191 controls were included in this meta-analysis. The results indicated that the STAT3 rs744166 polymorphism was associated with CD and UC susceptibility (CD: GA+AA vs. GG, OR = 1.20, 95%CI, 1.11–1.30, I2 = 0%, Punadjusted<0.00001, PBonferroni<0.00005, PFDR<0.00001; UC: GA+AA vs. GG, OR = 1.21, 95%CI, 1.08–1.36, I2 = 1%, Punadjusted = 0.001, PBonferroni = 0.005, PFDR = 0.00125). In subgroup analyses by ethnicity, the significant association was found only among Caucasians. However, when grouped by age of onset, positive associations were found both among adults and children. In addition, when stratified by study design and genotyping methods, the risk of CD was significantly associated with the STAT3 rs744166 polymorphism in hospital-based and population-based groups and in SNP Array and SNPlex groups. For UC, significant associations were also found in population-based, PCR-RFLP and SNPlex groups. Moreover, these findings were sufficiently robust to withstand the Bonferroni correction and false discovery rate (FDR). Conclusion: This meta-analysis indicates that carriers of the STAT3 rs744166 ‘A’ allele have a significantly greater risk of CD and UC, especially among Caucasians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The processing delay is incorporated into the influence function of the well-known Cucker–Smale model for self-organized systems with multiple agents. Both symmetric and non-symmetric pairwise influence functions are considered, and a Lyapunov functional approach is developed to establish the existence of flocking solutions for the proposed delayed Cucker–Smale model. An analytic formula is given to calculate the asymptotic flocking velocity in terms of model parameters and the variation of the position during the initial time interval. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

ABSTRACT Human degenerative disc disease (DDD) is characterized by progressive loss of human nucleus pulposus (HNP) cells and extracellular matrix, in which the massive deposition are secreted by HNP cells. Cell therapy to supplement HNP cells to degenerated discs has been thought to be a promising strategy to treat DDD. However, obtaining a large quality of fully functional HNP cells has been severely hampered by limited proliferation capacity of HNP cells in vitro. Previous studies have used lipofectamine or recombinant adeno-associated viral (rAAV) vectors to deliver human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) into ovine or HNP cells to prolong the activity of nucleus pulposus cells with limited success. Here we developed a lentiviral vector bearing both hTERT and a gene encoding green fluorescence protein (L-hTERT/EGFP). This vector efficiently mediated both hTERT and EGFP into freshly isolated HNP cells. The expressions of both transgenes in L-hTERT/EGFP transduced HNP cells were detected up to day 210 post viral infection, which was twice as long as rAAV vector did. Furthermore, we observed restored telomerase activity, maintained telomere length, delayed cell senescence, and increased cell proliferation rate in those L-hTERT/EGFP transduced HNP cells. Our study suggests that lentiviral vector might be a useful gene delivery vehicle for HNP cell therapy to treat DDD. © 2013 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 32:159-166, 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we provide some robust estimation of moments of the random effects and the errors in dynamic panel data models with potential intercorrelation. By differencing the residuals over the individual and time indies, we modify the popularly used Arellano-Bond GMM estimator of the parameter coefficient and study its asymptotic properties. Based on the modified parameter estimator, we construct, respectively, some moment estimators of the random effects and the errors with no affecting each other. Their asymptotic normalities are obtained under some mild conditions. The finite sample properties are investigated by a small Monte Carlo simulation experiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Understanding the geographic and temporal spread of food-borne diseases associated with fresh produce is crucial for informing adequate surveillance and control. As a first step towards this goal, we develop and analyze a novel three stage model at the processing/sanitization juncture in the fresh produce supply chain. The key feature of our model is its ability to describe the dynamics of cross-contamination during commercial wash procedures. In general, we quantify the degree of cross-contamination in terms of model parameters. Applying these results in the case of Escherichia coli O157:H7 contamination of fresh-cut romaine lettuce, we identify the mean wash time and free chlorine concentration as critical parameters. In addition to showing how these parameters affect contamination levels, we recommend that in order to prevent potential source misidentification, at least 2.2mg/L of free chlorine should be used during a wash lasting at least 30s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Ever since Richards proposed his flexible growth function more than half a century ago, it has been a mystery that this empirical function has made many incredible coincidences with real ecological or epidemic data even though one of its parameters (i.e., the exponential term) does not seem to have clear biological meaning. It is therefore a natural challenge to mathematical biologists to provide an explanation of the interesting coincidences and a biological interpretation of the parameter. Here we start from a simple epidemic SIR model to revisit Richards model via an intrinsic relation between both models. Especially, we prove that the exponential term in the Richards model has a one-to-one nonlinear correspondence to the basic reproduction number of the SIR model. This one-to-one relation provides us an explicit formula in calculating the basic reproduction number. Another biological significance of our study is the observation that the peak time is approximately just a serial interval after the turning point. Moreover, we provide an explicit relation between final outbreak size, basic reproduction number and the peak epidemic size which means that we can predict the final outbreak size shortly after the peak time. Finally, we introduce a constraint in Richards model to address over fitting problem observed in the existing studies and then apply our method with constraint to conduct some validation analysis using the data of recent outbreaks of prototype infectious diseases such as Canada 2009 H1N1 outbreak, GTA 2003 SARS outbreak, Singapore 2005 dengue outbreak, and Taiwan 2003 SARS outbreak. Our new formula gives much more stable and precise estimate of model parameters and key epidemic characteristics such as the final outbreak size, the basic reproduction number, and the turning point, compared with earlier simulations without constraints. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]