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The accuracy of a debris-flow susceptibility assessment model can not be achieved to an acceptable level without rigorously selecting/processing model input parameters and reliably validating the results with ground truth. In this study, a modified logistic regression model was applied to examine the debris-flow susceptibility in the semi-arid mountainous areas of the southeast Tibetan Plateau, taking the case of the Benzilan-Changbo segment of the Jinsha River. The logistic regression model validation was supported by a field investigation and interpreting aerial photographs. The frequency ratio method was adapted for the sensitivity analysis of ten predisposing factors, including a factor of human activities that has never been considered in previous studies for the selected study area. The model with the highest prediction accuracy (83%) was obtained by comparing 55 possible combinations of the ten factors evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve technique. Composite analysis and random sample testing were also conducted to verify the reliability of the susceptibility assessment. The prediction results showed that the actual debris-flow area accounted for 92% of the total predicted debris-flow area. In summary, this study reveals that: (1) the highest susceptibility area was mainly distributed in the northeast and middle riparian zones, partially scattered in the southwest. Human activity was found to be closely related to the probability of debris flow occurrences; (2) under the two situations of independent and index combination participation evaluation, the performances of the same related factors showed largely different effects on the assessment results, which reflected the interrelation and interaction of the factors causing the debris flow; (3) the accuracy of the modified logistic regression model increased by 15%, when compared with the index entropy model in a previous study, and the reasons for this were discussed in the current study. The modified model, along with its enhanced validation process, could be easily extended to other regional mass movement susceptibility analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large number of the landslide dams located on the major rivers at the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau have been previously identified through remote sensing analysis and field investigations. The Xuelongnang paleolake was one of the lakes formed by these landslide dams in the upper Jinsha River, where the association of a relict landslide dam, lacustrine sediment, and outburst sediment is well preserved. This preservation provides an opportunity to better understand the formation, evolution, and longevity of a large landslide-dammed lake in the upper Jinsha River. It was inferred that the Xuelongnang dammed lake may have been formed by an earthquake-induced paleoavalanche. The surface area of the lake at its peak was estimated at 7.0 × 106 m2, and the corresponding volume was approximately 3.1 × 108 m3. Two outburst flood events were determined to have occurred during the life span of the lake. Based on the 18 ages obtained from optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and carbon-14 (14C) dating combined with stratigraphic sequences observed in the field, the paleolandslide-dammed lake was formed at approximately 2.1 ka and subsequently breached locally. The dammed lake was sustained for a period of some 900 years based on the chronological constraining. This study confirms that a major landslide-dammed lake can be sustained for at least hundreds of years and breached by several dam breaks in multiple periods, which contributed to the preservation of the knickpoints at millennial scale along the major rivers in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]