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Ecological sustainability quantifies the capacity of an ecological system to sustain its health while fulfilling human survival needs and supporting future development. An accurate projection of ecological dynamics for sustainability is crucial for decision-makers to comprehend potential risks. However, the intricate interplay between climate change and human activity has hindered comprehensive assessments of future ecological sustainability, leaving it inadequately investigated thus far. This study aimed to assess future ecological sustainability shaped by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using remote sensing data from a typical arid farming–pastoral zone located at the northern foot of Yinshan Mountain (NFYM), Inner Mongolia, China. Five machine learning models were employed to evaluate the relationship between ecological sustainability and its driving factors. The results indicate that (1) overall ecological sustainability initially decreased and then increased during 2003–2022; (2) the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model version 4 (GFDL-ESM4) mode and random forest model demonstrated the best performance in climate and ecological sustainability simulations; and (3) the annual change rates of ecological sustainability from 2023 to 2099 are projected to be +0.45%, −0.05%, and −0.46% per year under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, suggesting that stringent environmental policies can effectively enhance ecological sustainability. The proposed framework can assist decision-makers in understanding ecological changes under different SSPs and calls for strategies to enhance ecosystem resilience in the NFYM and similar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comprehensive biotoxicity indicators have been considered into environmental impact assessment system of wastewater treatment and discharge in China. However, the traditional methods of biotoxicity assessment face two risks of incorrect acceptance and incorrect rejection. According to Accreditation Criteria for the Competence of Testing and Calibration Laboratories (CNAS-CL01: 2018), laboratories should consider the risks when making conformity assessment. This study investigated the uncertainty evaluation of the luminescent bacteria test for the acute toxicity of wastewater, involving its conformance, uncertainty, and non-conformance zones (Geometrical Product Specifications (GPS )--Inspection by Measurement of Workpieces and Measuring Equipment--Part 1: Decision Rules for Verifying Conformity or Nonconformity with Specifications (ISO 14253-1: 2017)), using the pharmaceutical wastewater sample close to the discharge limits. The results show that the conformance, uncertainty, and non-conformance zones varied depending on the r-value of the standard curve and the precision of the measurement. The conformance zone decreased and uncertainty zone increased with the | r| -value or the precision decreased, which made it impossible to reduce the risk of incorrectly decision by setting a "guard band", and greatly affected the accuracy of the acute toxicity assessment. To solve this problem, a Welch's t-test was introduced to assess whether the acute toxicity of wastewater was conformance by comparing the relative luminosity of the wastewater with that of the 0.07 mg·L-1 HgCl2 solution. If the relative luminosity of the wastewater was higher than that of the 0.07 mg·L-1 HgCl2 solution, the acute toxicity of the wastewater was conformance, otherwise the acute toxicity of the wastewater was non-conformance. This study clarifies the limitations of the national standard method and the acute toxicity assessment by carrying out the uncertainty study, and proposes an improvement, which provide an important basis for the scientific assessment of the acute toxicity of wastewater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]