1. Response of Tropical Overshooting Deep Convection to Global Warming Based on Global Cloud‐Resolving Model Simulations.
- Author
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Wu, Xueke, Fu, Qiang, and Kodama, Chihiro
- Subjects
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GLOBAL warming , *ATMOSPHERIC models , *ATMOSPHERIC temperature , *OZONE layer , *OCEAN temperature , *CHEMICAL species - Abstract
Tropical overshooting deep convections (ODCs) play a vital role in vertical transport of boundary layer pollutants, especially short‐lived species, to upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, with important implications for stratospheric ozone and climate. We use simulations from a global cloud‐system resolving model, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmosphere Model (NICAM), to study ODC changes from historical period to the end of the 21st century. NICAM well reproduces Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission‐satellite observed ODC spatiotemporal patterns. The future occurrences of ODCs with cloud top height above 15.5, 16.9, and 18.4 km scaled by the global temperature increase will increase by 7%/K, 27%/K, and 90%/K, respectively, over ocean where the atmosphere is becoming warmer and wetter. The corresponding changes are −1%/K, 10%/K, and 37%/K over land where the atmosphere will become hotter but drier. Relative to tropical cold point tropopause height, ODCs will only change by 3%/K, with 6%/K over the ocean but −3%/K on land. Plain Language Summary: Tropical overshooting deep convection (ODC) plays an important role in transporting short‐lived chemical species rapidly from troposphere to stratosphere. This study shows that the simulations from a global cloud‐system resolving model, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmosphere Model (NICAM), can well capture observed spatiotemporal variations of tropical ODCs. The NICAM simulations predict that by the end of the 21st century (2075–2104) versus the historical period (1979–2008) with a global‐mean surface air temperature increase of 2.67 K, ODC occurrences with cloud tops reaching above 15.5, 16.9, and 18.4 km will increase by 14%, 59%, and 189%, respectively. Thus ODCs with higher cloud tops increase by a larger fraction than ODCs with lower cloud tops. The corresponding changes in ODC occurrences over the future warmer (hotter) and wetter (drier) oceanic (terrestrial) environments will be 20% (−2%), 72% (27%), and 240% (98%). Thus ODCs over ocean generally increase at a faster rate than over land. With tropical cold point tropopause height as a reference level, which will increase from 17.2 to 18.1 km, ODCs will increase by only 8% over the tropics, with 15% over ocean but decrease by −8% over land. Key Points: The Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmosphere Model well reproduces observed spatiotemporal distributions of tropical overshooting deep convections (ODCs)Tropical ODC increases with global temperature on ocean (land) by 7%/K (−1%/K) for ODCs above 15.5 km, 27%/K (10%/K) above 16.9 km, and 90%/K (37%/K) above 18.4 kmResponse of tropical ODCs that penetrate the tropical cold point tropopause height to global warming is 3%/K, with 6%/K over the ocean and −3%/K on land [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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