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The impacts of climate change are of primary importance for economic sectors whose proper operation greatly depends on climatic conditions; this is particularly true for beach tourism. Knowledge on climate preferences of tourists is essential for estimating the effects of changes in future climate to the climatic comfort of tourists, and consequently on their willingness to travel to specific destinations. In Southern Europe, changes of future temperature and precipitation are expected to be prominent but empirical studies on tourists’ climate preferences are still limited. The paper presents the results of a recent survey carried out on 13 Greek islands among beach tourists during high season (summer), conducted through questionnaires completed mainly at the beach but also at airports and hotels. Findings reveal that precipitation is a crucial climatic parameter for beach tourism, while climate preferences of tourists differ to some extent according to demographic and other characteristics. Based on the statistical analysis of responses, a utility function was built for ambient temperature, rain, cloudiness, and wind, and the weights of these parameters were estimated. Finally, a Beach Utility Index (BUI) incorporating the estimated climatic utility functions is proposed.

The paper presents a quantitative assessment of mid-term (2021–2050) climate change impacts on and potential adaptation options for selected crops in Greece that are of importance in terms of their share in national agricultural production and gross value added. Central points in the assessment are the monetary evaluation of impacts and the cost-benefit analysis of adaptation options. To address local variability in current and future climate conditions, analysis is spatially disaggregated into geographical regions using as an input downscaled results from climatic models. For some crops (cereals, vegetables, pulses, grapevines), changes in future agricultural yields are assessed by means of agronomic simulation models, while for the rest crops changes are assessed through regression models. The expected effects on crop yields of a number of potential adaptation options are also investigated through the same models, and the costs and benefits of these options are also quantitatively assessed. The findings indicate that climate change may create winners and losers depending on their agricultural activity and location, while adaptation can mitigate adverse effects of climate change under cost-effective terms.

To date, the majority of the research literature on the impacts of climate change has addressed the negative aspect, i.e. the risks associated with a future permanent modification of climate. Potential opportunities have received much less attention and are rarely transformed into monetary values. Furthermore, manufacturing is one of the economic sectors where the influence of climate change remains practically unknown, although the economic performance of some industrial activities depends directly on climatic conditions – bottled water and non-alcoholic beverages (i.e. soft drinks and fruit juices) are among these. This paper aims to explore the link between weather and product sales in these sectors, and estimate in quantitative terms the potential impact of future climate change on their revenues. Historic data were explored through statistical analysis and appropriate regression models were developed. Models were applied for the historic (1961–90) and future climate (2021–50) and the difference in sales forms the expected quantified impact of climate change. The results indicate that significant opportunities may arise for some sectors from modifications in climate, provided their production infrastructure can meet the expected demand and their management strategies can successfully adapt to altered climatic conditions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

The introduction of best available techniques (BAT) with the European Commission's directive 96/61, created a new framework for ‘cleaner’ production in the industrial sector. BATs practically constitute recommended techniques for each of the steps in the manufacturing process. Thus, the industries must decide on which BATs are most appropriate for their processes. In the current study, an integrated approach is applied in order to find the mixture of BATs for the entire industrial sector that satisfies as much as possible the economic and the environmental criteria. The former represent the industry owner's point of view expressed by the Net Present Value of the projects and the latter represent the society's point of view quantified by the emission reduction in some major pollutants. The developed multi-objective optimization model is addressed using two methods: (1) goal programming and (2) generation of the Pareto optimal solutions using an augmented version of the e-constraint method followed by an interactive filtering process in order to select the most preferred Pareto optimal solution. The generation of the Pareto optimal solutions is performed using an improved version of the widely used e-constraint method that overcomes some of its known drawbacks. The COMBAT tool (combinatorial optimization with multiple criteria for BAT selection) that is developed for implementing these methods is also described and the results from its application in the industrial sector of the greater Athens area are presented.

The implementation of Best Available Techniques (BATs) in industry can contribute significantly to the reduction of environmental burdens caused by industrial activities, yet it requires additional expenses, for investment, operation and maintenance, while providing environmental, and in many cases, even economic benefits. When examining BATs for potential application both economic and environmental costs and benefits affect the decision-making process. In view of the large number of BATs available for adoption and the difficulties in computing and comparing costs and benefits, especially environmental with economic ones, a decision-support tool for public and private administrators and managers has been developed, which offers rapid assessment of different BATs and their combinations both in terms of economic costs and environmental benefits that may result. This paper presents its methodological framework, main features and structure, together with some results of its application to the industrial sectors of the metropolitan area of Athens, Greece.

Attributing costs to the environmental impacts associated with industrial activities can greatly assist in protecting human health and the natural environment as monetary values are capable of directly influencing technological and policy decisions without changing the rules of the market. This paper attempts to estimate the external cost attributable to the atmospheric pollution from ‘medium and high environmental burden’ industrial activities located in the greater Athens area and the benefits from Best Available Techniques (BAT) introduction. To this end a number of typical installations were defined to be used in conjunction with the Impact Pathway Approach developed in the context of the ExternE project to model all industrial sectors/sub-sectors located in the area of interest. Total environmental externalities due to air pollutants emitted by these industrial activities were found to reach 211 M€ per year, associated mainly with human mortality and morbidity due to PM 10 emissions, as well as with climate change impacts due to CO 2 emissions for which non-metallic minerals and oil processing industries are the main sources. The results obtained can be used as the basis for an integrated evaluation of potential BAT, taking into account not only private costs and benefits but also the environmental externalities, thus leading to policy decisions that maximize social welfare in each industrial sector/sub-sector.

Recognizing that the industrial sector is one of the major sources of environmental impacts, there is a strong effort towards “cleaner” production. In this context, the European Union strongly encourages the adaptation of Best Available Techniques (BATs) which practically constitute recommended techniques for each one of the steps in the manufacturing process (Directive 96/61 EC). In the current case study, we examine the industrial sector of the greater Athens area under the prism of BATs introduction. The aim of the analysis is to find the mixture of BATs for the entire industrial sector that satisfies as much as possible the economic criteria (expressed by the Net Present Value of the projects) and the environmental criteria (quantified by the emission reduction in major pollutants). The obtained multi-objective optimization problem is addressed using two methods: (1) goal programming and (2) generation of the Pareto optimal solutions using the e-constraint method, followed by an interactive filtering procedure in order to select the most preferred Pareto optimal solution (BAT mixture). The computational tool for implementing these methods is also described and the results from the application in the industrial sector of the greater Athens area are presented.

This paper focuses on the potential upcoming impacts of climate change in the 21st century on electricity demand at regional/national levels for regions where topography and location result in large differences in local climate. To address this issue, a regional climate model, PRECIS, has been used to predict future climatic conditions under different emissions scenarios (namely A2 and B2 of the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES)) as an input to a multiple regression model of the sensitivity of electricity demand in the Greek interconnected power system to climate and socio-economic factors. The economic development input to the multiple regression model follows the same storylines of the SRES scenarios upto 2100 and includes sub-scenarios to cover larger and smaller economic development rates. The results of the analysis indicate an increase of the annual electricity demand attributable solely to climate change of 3.6–5.5% under all scenarios examined, most of which results from increased annual variability with substantial increases during the summer period that outweighs moderate declines estimated for the winter period. This becomes more pronounced if inter-annual variability, especially of summer months, is taken into consideration. It was also found that in the long run, economic development will have a strong effect on future electricity demand, thus increasing substantially the total amount of energy consumed for cooling and heating purposes. This substantial increase in energy demand with strong annual variability will lead to the need for inordinate increases of installed capacity, a large percentage of which will be underutilized. Thus, appropriate adaptation strategies (e.g. new investments, interconnections with other power systems, energy saving programmes, etc.) need to be developed at the state level in order to ensure the security of energy supply.

Comprehensive information and detailed data for the non-residential (NR) building stock is rather limited, although it is the fastest growing energy demand sector. This paper elaborates the approach used to determine the potential energy conservation in the Hellenic NR building stock. A major obstacle that had to be overcome was the need to make suitable assumptions for missing detailed primary data. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of scattered national data resulted in a realistic assessment of the existing NR building stock and energy consumption. Different energy conservation scenarios and their impact on the reduction of CO2 emissions were evaluated. Accordingly, the most effective energy conservation measures are: addition of thermal insulation of exposed external walls, primarily in hotels and hospitals; installation of energy efficient lamps; installation of solar collectors for sanitary hot water production, primarily in hotels and health care; installation of building management systems in office/commercial and hotel buildings; replacement of old inefficient boilers; and regular maintenance of central heating boilers.

The existing building stock in European countries accounts for over 40% of final energy consumption in the European Union (EU) member states, of which residential use represents 63% of total energy consumption in the buildings sector. Consequently, an increase of building energy performance can constitute an important instrument in the efforts to alleviate the EU energy import dependency (currently at about 48%) and comply with the Kyoto Protocol to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This is also in accordance to the European Directive (EPBD 2002/91/EC) on the energy performance of buildings, which is currently under consideration in all EU member states. This paper presents an overview of the EU residential building stock and focuses on the Hellenic buildings. It elaborates the methodology used to determine the priorities for energy conservation measures (ECMs) in Hellenic residential buildings to reduce the environmental impact from CO 2 emissions, through the implementation of a realistic and effective national action plan. A major obstacle that had to overcome was the need to make suitable assumptions for missing detailed primary data. Accordingly, a qualitative and quantitative assessment of scattered national data resulted to a realistic assessment of the existing residential building stock and energy consumption. This is the first time that this kind of aggregate data is presented on a national level. Different energy conservation scenarios and their impact on the reduction of CO 2 emissions were evaluated. Accordingly, the most effective ECMs are the insulation of external walls (33–60% energy savings), weather proofing of openings (16–21%), the installation of double-glazed windows (14–20%), the regular maintenance of central heating boilers (10–12%), and the installation of solar collectors for sanitary hot water production (50–80%).

The aim of the present paper is to investigate the prospects for the exploitation of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in Greece. The paper is addressing 3 questions: in which country, what kind of investment, with which economic and environmental return? The proposed approach is based on a multicriteria analysis for identifying priority countries and interesting investment opportunities in each priority country. These opportunities are then evaluated through a conventional financial analysis in order to assess their economic and environmental attractiveness. To this purpose, the IRR of a typical project in each investment category is calculated by taking into account country-specific parameters, such as baseline emission factors, load factors, costs, energy prices etc. The results reveal substantial differences in the economic and environmental return of different types of projects in different host-countries and show that for the full exploitation of the CDM a multifaceted approach to decision-making is necessary.

The development of National Allocation Plans (NAPs) for the first phase 2005–2007 of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) was accompanied by the stated concern of the industrial enterprises with installations that fall under the scope of the relevant Directive 2003/87, since the impacts of the allocation in their financial and technical modes of operation were judged to be severe. Thus, the intensity of the negotiations for the next allocation phase (i.e. 2008–2012), is expected to be heated. With a view to assisting enterprises, especially in the energy sector or for which energy use and its management is a crucial part of their activity, to incorporate in their business plans the impacts of the Directive in an informed manner, an attempt is made here to explore the constraints and the available options that will guide the coming EU-ETS potential allocations. In the analysis, the credits derived from the use of CDM are specifically taken into account. The results show that the next allocations would tend to be significantly more stringent than the current ones because of the combined effect of no inter-period transfer of allowances, the amount of CDM credits expected to be available compared to the amount of effort that would be required and the yield of emission reductions from existing or planned policies and measures. It becomes then crucial, if not imperative, for the enterprises involved as well as national governments to examine carefully means to address their obligations under the Directive.

During the last decade the CO2 emissions from the residential and tertiary sectors have been rising continuously. This is cause for concern but also an area to be targeted for emission reduction measures in national action plans. This paper proposes a methodological framework, using the Greek building sector (characterized by an aging building stock constructed mostly in the period before 1980) as a case study for the examination of the economic attractiveness of possible measures, which incorporates crucial parameters such as local climate, use of buildings, age of building stock, etc. that affect the energy conservation potential and consequently the economic performance of available measures. Utilizing this framework, the approach is able to classify measures into three categories, namely ‘win–win’ cases (i.e. where the implementation of emission reduction measures presents a net economic benefit for end-users), measures that require the implementation of appropriate economic support policies in order to make them economically attractive for end-users, and measures that have excessive cost. The results indicate that the emissions reduction potential of ‘win–win’ cases is significant. They also demonstrate how individual measures can provide significant reductions if carefully targeted economic support policies are applied. Finally, sensitivity analyses performed with respect to the discount rate applied indicate that it has a substantial impact on the economic performance of some measures and consequently on the magnitude of the ‘win–win’ potential associated to emissions reduction.

Electricity demand forecasting is becoming an essential tool for energy management, maintenance scheduling and investment decisions in the future liberalized energy markets and fluctuating fuel prices. To address these needs, appropriate forecasting tools for the electricity demand in Greece have been developed and tested. Electricity demand depends on economic variables and national circumstances as well as on climatic conditions. Following the analysis of the time series of electricity demand in the past decade, two statistical models have been developed, one providing daily and the other monthly demand predictions, to estimate medium term demand up to 12 months ahead, utilizing primitive (relative humidity) and derived (heating and cooling degree-days) meteorological parameters. Autoregressive structures were incorporated in both models, aiming at reducing serial correlation, which appears to bias the estimated effects of meteorological parameters on electricity demand. Both modeling approaches show a high predictive value with adjusted R2 above 96%. Their advantages and disadvantages are discussed in this paper. The effect of the climatic conditions on the electricity demand is then further investigated via predictions under four different scenarios for the weather conditions of the coming year, which include both normal and recently observed extreme behavior.

The introduction of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 represents a very important step in the effort for the limitation of the emissions of greenhouse gases. The energy sector, being responsible for the large majority of emissions, represents the most crucial field for undertaking mitigation actions. A large number of potential emission reduction measures exist in this sector, characterised by different cost, applicability difficulties, environmental and social impacts. These criteria define the degree of acceptance of the various actors involved in the decision-making process. In this paper, the possibilities offered by a multicriteria method – namely ELECTRE Tri – are investigated through its application in the case study of Greece, in order to define national priorities for a National Action Plan for GHG mitigation in the energy sector and to formulate a relevant time-schedule for actions’ implementation.

The exploitation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) forms an integral part of the effort to reduce the negative impacts from the use of fossil fuels and to confront the risks associated with climate change. The Kyoto Protocol (KP) sets legally binding commitments for developed countries with respect to their greenhouse gases emissions and, in that, represents the first step of a systematic effort for stabilization of greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Taking into account that CO 2 , originating almost exclusively from energy processes, is the most important greenhouse gas, the further development of RES forms an essential measure for the reduction of emissions. This paper examines whether the current development and planned actions in the field of the RES, even when straightforwardly associated with very ambitious targets for the present decade (e.g., the draft European Directive on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market), are sufficient in order to achieve the commitments according to the KP or more effort is needed in the direction of RES exploitation, combined with complementary actions such as energy conservation.

Besides the necessary policy measures concerning financial or legal aspects of the current energy market, the deployment of renewables can be facilitated by the establishment of different practices in energy analysis and planning. The present paper shows that in order to promote renewables it is necessary to shift from a centralised view of the energy sector to a regional perspective. A bottom-up approach intended to match, at the regional level, the supply of available renewable resources to the particular energy demand profile is presented. The proposed methodology is illustrated by a case study concerning two different Greek regions.

The large scale exploitation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) has to be based on a completely different conception of the energy planning procedure. The shift towards small-scale and dispersed units in the energy system brings up significant difficulties in the problem's analysis and in the decision making process. This paper presents the basic structural characteristics of a group DSS designed for assisting decision makers in the promotion of RES. Specific attention is paid to the description of the decision making procedure which basically consists in the multicriteria analysis of alternative RES penetration scenarios by means of the PROMETHEE II outranking method. Scenarios are evaluated by a group of actors directly or indirectly involved in energy decisions which arrive, through a systematic negotiations procedure, at a wide consensus. Results from a real-world application of the DSS in Greece are presented and conclusions about the system's effectiveness are drawn.

Best Available Techniques (BATs) contribute significantly to the reduction of industrial environmental burdens with respect to air pollution, wastewater, and solid wastes. In Europe, the application of BATs is prescribed by Directive 96/61/EC, which, however, leaves the selection of specific BATs to plant operators. In making their choices, installations have to consider not only the environmental benefits of BATs, but also all relevant cost components. In assessing the economic attractiveness of potential BATs and their combinations, as well as incentives and disincentives to be instituted, the cost of environmental externalities, usually not reflected in market prices, should be taken into account. In this paper, a decision-aid framework combining an assessment of environmental externalities and the utilization of multicriteria methods and, more specifically, Multiobjective Mathematical Programming, capable of addressing all these issues in a comprehensive and coherent manner, is presented. This is illustrated by its application for the region of Attica in Greece, where over 50% of the industrial basis and Athens, with its 4 million inhabitants, are located. The implementation of the framework and its associated tools to 800 installations led to the identification of the specific BATs, alone or in combination, that provide the most cost-effective reductions of four air pollutants (PM10, SO(2), NO(x), VOC) and CO(2). The results also clearly demonstrate the increased pollution reductions that would result from the adoption of BATs made economically attractive by the inclusion of externalities. Estimates of investments and net present values with and without incentives/disincentives are also provided.

In order to comply in 2010 with the emission ceilings proposed by European commission under the convention on transboundary air pollution, Greece has to develop and implement a cohesive strategy affecting all the sectors of the economy. The RAINS model was used for the evaluation of the environmental and economic impacts arising from the use of a number of control technologies under alternative energy scenarios. To this purpose a number of modifications regarding the input databases of RAINS were made. The analysis clearly reveals that the reduction of SO2 emissions can be achieved in a lower cost compared to the reduction of NOx emissions. Moreover, the complementarity of CO2 abatement policies and the SO2/NOx abatement policies is also accented.