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In this paper, we propose a gate recurrent unit (GRU) method to forecast ionospheric the total electron content (TEC) at different latitudes and longitudes. This method aims to address the issues of low accuracy in traditional neural networks and the challenges faced in training long-term time series. We construct a GRU model using TEC data from the European Orbit Determination Center (CODE) for the years 2016 to 2018, geomagnetic indices, and solar activity indices (16 points along the latitude and longitude lines of 120°E and 30°N). Comparative experiments are carried out with the international reference ionosphere (IRI) model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The results show that the GRU model outperforms other models in terms of accuracy. On geomagnetic quiet days, the 5-day predicted average residual can reach 0.51 TECU, while on storm days it can reach 0.72 TECU. The root mean square error (RMSE) for these days is 0.64 TECU and 1.01 TECU, respectively. The correlation coefficients are 0.98 and 0.93, respectively. The RMSE of the GRU model ranges from 0.60 TECU to 2.62 TECU for both geomagnetic quiet days and storm days. In terms of TEC forecast accuracy in 2018, the RMSE of the GRU model is 1.6 TECU, which is smaller than that of the IRI model and LSTM model. These results demonstrate that the GRU model performs better than the IRI model and LSTM model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A robust ionospheric model is indispensable for providing the atmospheric delay corrections for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) navigation and positioning and forecasting the space environment. The accuracy of ionospheric models is limited due to the simplified model structures. Complicated spatiotemporal variations in total electron content (TEC) biases between GNSS and international reference ionosphere (IRI) suggest a robust strategy to optimally combine GNSS and IRI TEC for high-precision modeling. In this paper, we propose a novel ionospheric data assimilation method, which is a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), to construct an ionospheric model over Yunnan in southwestern China. We used the LETKF method to assimilate the ionospheric TEC extracted from GNSS observations in Yunnan into the IRI-2016 model. The experimental results indicate that the ionospheric data assimilation has a more pronounced improvement effect on the IRI empirical model during periods of geomagnetic quiet than during periods of geomagnetic disturbance. On quiet magnetic days, the skill score (SKS) of the assimilation is 0.60 and the root mean square error (RMSE) values before and after assimilation are 5.08 TECU and 2.02 TECU, respectively. The correlation coefficient after assimilation increases from 0.94 to 0.99. On magnetic storm days, the SKS of the assimilation is 0.42 and the RMSE values before and after assimilation are 5.99 TECU and 3.46 TECU, respectively. The correlation coefficient after assimilation increases from 0.98 to 0.99. The results suggest that the LETKF algorithm can be considered an effective method for ionospheric data assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the ionospheric disturbance responses over low-latitude regions by using total electron content from Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS), ionosonde data and Swarm satellite data, during the geomagnetic storm in August 2018. The results show that a prominent total electron content (TEC) enhancement over low-latitude regions is observed during the main phase of the storm. There is a persistent TEC increase lasting for about 1–2 days and a moderately positive disturbance response during the recovery phase on 27–28 August, which distinguishes from the general performance of ionospheric TEC in the previous storms. We also find that this phenomenon is a unique local-area disturbance of the ionosphere during the recovery phase of the storm. The enhanced f o F 2 and h m F 2 of the ionospheric F2 layer is observed by SANYA and LEARMONTH ionosonde stations during the recovery phase. The electron density from Swarm satellites shows a strong equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest over the low-latitude area during the main phase of storm, which is simultaneous with the uplift of the ionospheric F2 layer from the SANYA ionosonde. Meanwhile, the thermosphere O/N2 ratio shows a local increase on 27–28 August over low-latitude regions. From the above results, this study suggests that the uplift of F layer height and the enhanced O/N2 ratio are possibly main factors causing the local-area positive disturbance responses during the recovery phase of the storm in August 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate corrections for ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and early warning information are crucial for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) applications under the influence of space weather. In this study, we propose to use a new machine learning model—the Prophet model, to predict the global ionospheric TEC by establishing a short-term ionospheric prediction model. We use 15th-order spherical harmonic coefficients provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) as the training data set. Historical spherical harmonic coefficient data from 7 days, 15 days, and 30 days are used as the training set to model and predict 256 spherical harmonic coefficients. We use the predicted coefficients to generate a global ionospheric TEC forecast map based on the spherical harmonic function model and select a year with low solar activity (63.4 < F10.7 < 81.8) and a year with the high solar activity (79.5 < F10.7 < 255.0) to carry out a sliding 2-day forecast experiment. Meanwhile, we verify the model performance by comparing the forecasting results with the CODE forecast product (COPG) and final product (CODG). The results show that we obtain the best predictions by using 15 days of historical data as the training set. Compared with the results of CODE'S 1-Day (C1PG) and CODE'S 2-Day (C2PG). The number of days with RMSE better than COPG on the first and second day of the low-solar-activity year is 151 and 158 days, respectively. This statistic for high-solar-activity year is 183 days and 135 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ionospheric forecasts are critical for space-weather anomaly detection. Forecasting ionospheric total electron content (TEC) from the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) is of great significance to near-earth space environment monitoring. In this study, we propose a novel ionospheric TEC forecasting model based on deep learning, which consists of a convolutional neural network (CNN), long-short term memory (LSTM) neural network, and attention mechanism. The attention mechanism is added to the pooling layer and the fully connected layer to assign weights to improve the model. We use observation data from 24 GNSS stations from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) to model and forecast ionospheric TEC. We drive the model with six parameters of the TEC time series, Bz, Kp, Dst, and F10.7 indices and hour of day (HD). The new model is compared with the empirical model and the traditional neural network model. Experimental results show the CNN-LSTM-Attention neural network model performs well when compared to NeQuick, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM forecast models with a root mean square error (RMSE) and R2 of 1.87 TECU and 0.90, respectively. The accuracy and correlation of the prediction results remained stable in different months and under different geomagnetic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]