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The physical and human geographies and the historical climate of theMid-Atlantic Region of the United States are described to provide a baseline for an ongoing assessment of likely climate change impacts in the region. This region consists of 358 counties intersecting part or all of 8 states and 4 physiographic zones. This geographic diversity provides different sets of options for societies to adapt to environmental changes. Since 1967, the region's human population has grownin both number (19%) and income (116%), and important local ecosystems are experiencing associated stresses. Since 1895, the region's climate has become slightly warmer (+0.5 deg. C) and significantly wetter (+10%), although the warming has abated recently. Projections indicate that these broad regional socio-economic, ecological and climatictrends should persist through the 21st century. The significance of these changes in society, ecosystems and climate are evaluated in themore detailed, sector-specific analyses in the subsequent articles of this Special. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydroclimatic modellers presently have no well-established methodology either to identify representative scenarios or to confirm that their model output agrees with observation. To fill this gap, this research presents a synoptic climatological framework that distinguishes typical storm systems associated with above-average discharge from Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River basin (SRB) and establishes the characteristic hydrographic responses to those systems. To determine the effect of basin scale on the results, these responses we stratified by sub-basin size. The results show that those storm systems tapping intoAtlantic Ocean moisture usually produce above-average discharge in the SRB. Hydrographic responses vary with the storm trajectory and type. However, within a sub-basin scale and for any storm type, these hydrographic responses are the same from sub-basin to sub-basin. Thus, almost any basin is representative of its scale. Additional findings suggest that conventional single-day synoptic types are inappropriatefor many types of research. Still it is concluded that a synoptic climatological framework can be valuable for defining model scenarios and confirming model experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.

The Pennsylvania greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory presented in this paper provides detailed estimates of emissions and their sources for the six major categories of GHGs. The inventory was compiled using the current U.S. Environment Protection Agency methodology, which applies emissions factors to socioeconomic data, such as fossil energy use, vehicle miles traveled, and industrial production. The paper also contains an assessment of the methodology and suggestions for improving accounting with respect to process, sectoral, and geographic considerations. The study found that Pennsylvania emitted 77.4 million metric tons carbon equivalent of GHGs in 1990 and that this total increased by 3% to 79.8 million metric tons carbon equivalent by 1999. Despite this increase, however, the state's percentage contribution to the United States total declined during the decade. Pennsylvania's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels represented 92.4% of 1990 totals and declined to 90.5% in 1999. Electricity generation was the largest single source of CO2 emissions, being responsible for 38% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 1990 and 40% of the total in 1999. Transportation emissions accounted for the largest increases in emissions between 1990 and 1999, whereas industrial emissions accounted for the largest decrease. The overall trend indicates that Pennsylvania has been able to weaken the relationship between GHG emissions and economic growth.

The restructuring of Bulgaria's social, economic and political system includes a change in the way it handles disaster preparation and response. During the Cold War, the entire country drilled regularly in civil defense, which was under the control of the army. A recent decree and pending legislation transfers civil defense from the military to the Council of Ministers, which has developed a national plan for defense against environmental hazards. This research shows that the transformation from command to market economy, plus the country's severe economic crisis, is degrading existing civil defense structures, preventing the implementation of the proposed new organization and increasing the population's vulnerability to hazards. Case studies of a small city, a petrochemical complex, coastal-zone hazards management, earthquake hazards regulation and the Kozloduy nuclear facility demonstrate Bulgaria's increasing vulnerability to environmental hazards.