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Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

Most volcanoes worldwide are not monitored in real-time; for those that are, patterns of pre-eruptive earthquakes coupled with conceptual models of magma ascent enable short-term forecasting of eruption onset. Basic event locations, characterization of background seismicity, and recognition of changes in earthquake types and energy release are most important to successful eruption forecasting. During renewed activity at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, this approach was used by the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazards Mitigation (CVGHM) and the USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program to forecast eruption onset, identify changes in eruptive styles and raise or lower alert levels and extend or contract evacuation zones. After > 400 years of quiescence, Sinabung began erupting in August 2010. The volcano was unmonitored at the onset of these eruptions, which were phreatic, but soon after a monitoring network was installed by CVGHM. Increasing swarms of high-frequency volcano tectonic (VT) earthquakes were used to forecast continuing phreatic eruptions. Volcanic activity decreased in mid-September 2010, while additional intrusions at depth (inferred from continued distal VT swarms) continued through September 2013, when explosive phreatic eruptions recurred. Explosive eruptions were forecast based on increases in real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) and VT seismicity. Seismicity changed markedly in late November and early December 2013 with the occurrence of deep earthquakes and an overall transition from low-frequency (LF) dominated and irregular (in time and magnitude) earthquakes to more regular LF and hybrid seismicity – a transition that accompanied the continued rise, eventual emergence and growth of a lava dome in the summit crater. This lava dome was first observed on 18 December. In late December 2013 to early January 2014, the eruptive style changed again as additional ascending magma deformed the summit and the dome grew beyond the capacity of the summit crater, resulting in the en masse collapse of the lava dome (2 Mm 3 ) on 11 January and the largest pyroclastic flow to date. The collapse was forecast on the basis of a several order of magnitude increase in RSAM, continued strong distal VT seismicity, an increase in proximal seismicity, and large-scale observed deformation of the summit area. Similarly, a later collapse of a second summit lava dome on 1 February 2014 was forecast on the basis of increased distal seismicity. Here, we demonstrate how a process-based volcano seismicity model was used in combination with real-time data to forecast the time and magnitude of eruptions, as well as changes in eruption style.

After 53 years of quiescence, Mount Agung awoke in August 2017, with intense seismicity, measurable ground deformation, and thermal anomalies in the summit crater. Although the seismic unrest peaked in late September and early October, the volcano did not start erupting until 21 November. The most intense explosive eruptions with accompanying rapid lava effusion occurred between 25 and 29 November. Smaller infrequent explosions and extrusions continue through the present (June 2019). The delay between intense unrest and eruption caused considerable challenges to emergency responders, local and national governmental agencies, and the population of Bali near the volcano, including over 140,000 evacuees. This paper provides an overview of the volcanic activity at Mount Agung from the viewpoint of the volcano observatory and other scientists responding to the volcanic crisis. We discuss the volcanic activity as well as key data streams used to track it. We provide evidence that magma intruded into the mid-crust in early 2017, and again in August of that year, prior to intrusion of an inferred dike between Mount Agung and Batur Caldera that initiated an earthquake swarm in late September. We summarize efforts to forecast the behavior of the volcano, to quantify exclusion zones for evacuations, and to work with emergency responders and other government agencies to make decisions during a complex and tense volcanic crisis.

DOI: 10.17014/ijog.8.1.109-117 The cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise at Sinabung Volcano were analyzed from February 2013 to February 2014. Many eruptions occurred during these periods, started on 15 September 2013. Looking at the variations in the coda of the correlations, two types of measurements can be distinguished associated to two types of changes: relative velocity variation and waveform decoherence. The drop of relative velocity variations and waveform decoherence were observed for each station pair of Sinabung one to two months before the first eruption. These changes in accordance to the deformation of the Sinabung edifice were estimated from geodetic measurements, since an analysis of baseline change between GPS stations indicated an inflation of the volcanic edifice prior to September 2013 eruption. The monitoring of relative velocity variations and decoherence provides insights into the ongoing processes in the volcanic edifice to assist in determining the level of volcanic activity.

We examine the initial phases of explosion earthquakes accompanying Vulcanian eruptions at Lokon-Empung volcano in Indonesia to reveal the triggering process of explosive eruptions. In 2012–2013, 56 Vulcanian eruptions at Lokon-Empung were observed by our temporary observation network being comprised of four broadband seismometers and two infrasound microphones at 1.6–6.8 km from the active vent. The seismic records of each explosion earthquake share almost the same waveform characteristics of initial phases, consisting of a small compressional onset (P phase) and a subsequent large dilatational phase (D phase). Particle orbits of both phases show straight motion from beneath the active vent, which suggests that these phases are composed of a longitudinal body wave. For each explosion, the origin times of the P phase precedes 0.8–2.5 s before the occurrence of an explosion at the vent that are detected by infrasound data. Since the signal-to-noise ratio of the P phase is insufficient for a quantitative analysis, we analyze the D phase dominating the initial phases. Our analysis for the signals of 0.2–1.0 Hz shows the D phase are well explained by a cylindrical contraction source with a half-cosine shaped time function located at 1.0–1.3 km depth beneath the active vent. We also recognize that some explosions are followed by a prominent tremor that coincides with continuous ash emission (ET). The seismic amplitudes and intensity of the D phase of events in ET are larger than the explosions without accompanying tremor (EX). The frequency distribution of the time interval from the previous eruption is also different in the events in ET and EX. The implosion source in the initial phases of explosion earthquakes at several km beneath the active vent has been reported at Sakurajima volcano. Since our result shows considerable agreement with the previous works at Sakurajima, both Lokon-Empung and Sakurajima may share similar initial processes of Vulcanian eruptions.

Agung Volcano is a stratovolcano located in the area of Karangasem regency of Bali and is in the northwest-southeast fault alignment with Batur, Abang and Seroja Volcano. The existence of this alignment allegedly related to the fracture in the northwest of the island of Bali. The eruption of Agung Volcano recorded on November 25th, 2017 was a significant danger for people living around it. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the activity of Agung Volcano. The method used in this study is the relocation of volcanic earthquake sources to determine the location of the source of the earthquake which caused an increase in Mount activity. Hypocenter relocation was carried out on 138 earthquake events during October 2017-January 2018 using the Coupled Velocity-Hypocenter method. Hypocenter was obtained at a depth of less than 10 km under sea level with an RMS value

Before its 2010 eruption, Sinabung Volcano was a Btype volcano, in its Indonesian classification. A series of explosions featuring 1-5 km high phreatic-ash columns occurred from August 27, 2010 untill September 7, 2010. SO2 flux measured during the eruptions showed sizeable gas emission and the youngest volcanic product has age of 1200 years BP obtained from 14C dating. At the end of August 2010, four continuous seismic stations were established around the volcano, and 6 additional stations were deployed in October 2010. Deformation monitoring was conducted temporarily till in February 2011, four continuous GPS stations were installed. All were set up through collaboration between Indonesian and Japanese academic and government institutions. Hypocenter calculations using data of 4 seismic stations fromSeptember to October 2010 showed two concentrations for shallow volcanic earthquakes (VTB) 0.5-2 km beneath the crater and for deep volcanic earthquakes (VTA) 2.5-14 km beneath the crater. These epicenters defined a northeast-southwest lineament, near an elongated sinistral fault zone between Sinabung and Sibayak volcanoes. Earthquake sources went deeper northeastward. Results using the data of 10 stations from November 2010 to February 2011 showed that earthquakes were concentrated at depths of 4-6 km beneath Lake Lau Kawar. Tilt and Electro-optic Distance Measurement (EDM) measurements from August to September 2010 showed no significant changes We inferred that since the last explosion in 7 September 2010, stabilization process both in pressure and energy were low.