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Johan Hjort's "critical period" hypothesis, which postulates that year‐class strength is determined in the short period following the onset of exogenous feeding, has rarely been supported by empirical data. Instead, the current understanding is that recruitment is determined by cumulative mortality throughout early life. Recent studies relied on the measure of growth autocorrelation derived from otolith daily increment widths to test the link between growth rate achieved during the post‐hatch period and during subsequent phases of the larval stage. Based on this approach, we revisit the role of larval growth in driving survival potential in three clupeoid species: Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus, Japanese anchovy Engraulis japonicus, and Pacific round herring Etrumeus micropus throughout the larval stage, using a combination of published datasets of otolith increment widths. Strong growth autocorrelation was detected for all three species throughout the larval stage, suggesting that initial growth determines to some extent growth rates achieved later in life. The extent of autocorrelation was reduced in sardine relative to anchovy and round herring at older ages. This interspecific difference could be attributed to differences in sensitivity to variability of environmental factors such as water temperature and food availability. The present findings suggest that the effect of early growth rate persists into later life stages for driving survival potential, which could reconcile the classic concept of "critical period" and the current "growth–survival" paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Red sea bream Pagrus major is a commercially important fish in Japan. In eastern Seto Inland Sea (SIS), the catch has increased from 297 tons in 1972 to 2,039 tons in 2010. We examined the relationship, 1972–2010, between increase in catch and winter temperature, based on the catch in February and March and the lowest water temperature at 10 m depth. In 1972–1986, the lowest water temperatures in the inner SIS areas (Osaka Bay, Harima‐nada, and Bisan‐seto) were <8°C, which is physiologically unfavorable for red sea bream. However, in 1987–2010 temperatures were generally ≥8°C. In the inner areas, the catch during winter had been minimal until the early 1980s, presumably because most red sea breams moved to the Kuroshio‐influenced (warmer) Kii Channel area. However, the winter catch in the inner areas of SIS increased from the late 1980s with warm winters. In addition, the catch between April and June, the spawning season, increased in the inner areas from the 1990s, and the catch rate of the inner areas was more than twice higher in the 2000s than in the 1980s. The results suggest that expansion of the distribution area during winter due to warm winter and increase in egg production in the inner areas greatly contributes to the increasing in catch in the eastern SIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]