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This study analyzes how climate change affects the economy, society, and environment in South Korea. Then, the study explores the ways to strengthen capabilities that can alleviate climate change impacts. To find them, the study employs a system dynamics simulation method and builds a model with several sectors including the urban, rural, population, and social-environmental sectors. The study compares the size of climate change damages in rural and urban areas. The results with representative concentration path (RCP) 8.5 show that the size of climate change damage will continue to increase by 2050. The projected damages from the reduced industrial outputs in urban areas will be larger than that in rural areas. The results also show that the service sector will face stronger impacts from climate change than the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. However, the total size of damage in the rural areas will be bigger than that of the urban areas. It is because the size of reduced industrial outputs per capita in the rural areas is twice bigger than that of the urban areas. The climate change damage in the social and environmental sectors (including a loss of biodiversity and an increase in health costs) account for the largest part of the total damage. The study finally provides suggestions and policies that can improve the capabilities to reduce the climate change damages. One of the major suggestions of this study is that the increase in the climate change budget corresponding to the GDP growth can minimize the size of climate change impacts.

We have analyzed effects of compound events on heat-related health risks by vulnerable groups in Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea from 2012 to 2020. A multivariate analysis was conducted for heat-related health impacts by combination of meteorological factors. We have found that heat-related health risks have increased by compound events effects by humidity and solar radiation. Heat-related patients occurred more frequently in higher humidity or intense solar radiation conditions than in usual conditions. All-cause mortalities were higher with high vapor pressure (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.5–8.4%) and large amount of solar radiation (7.5%, 95% CI: 5.2–9.7%) conditions. Infectious and metabolic mortalities have increased about 10% in higher humidity or intense solar radiation conditions. The effects of compound events were different by vulnerable groups. Female’s metabolic mortalities were higher (24.3%, 95% CI: 11.2–37.5%) with solar radiation. The circulatory mortalities of outdoor workers (10.1%, 95% CI: -5.6–25.7%), daytime occurrence (12.5%, 95% CI: 7.6–17.4%), and lower education (13.9%, 95% CI: 7.6–20.1%) has also increased by solar radiation. Mortality of infectious diseases has increased in elderlies (23.5%, 95% CI: 10.3–36.7%) by duration of sunshine. It shows heat waves warnings and policies should consider other meteorological factors other than temperature.

Many countries are operating a heatwave warning system (HWWS) to mitigate the impact of heatwaves on human health. The level of heatwave warning is normally determined by using the threshold temperature of heat-related morbidity or mortality. However, morbidity and mortality threshold temperatures have not been used together to account for the severity of health impacts. In this study, we developed a heatwave warning system with two different warning levels: Level-1 and Level-2, by analyzing the severity and likelihood of heat-related morbidity and mortality using the generalized additive model. The study particularly focuses on the cases in Seoul, South Korea, between 2011 and 2018. The study found that the threshold temperature for heat-related morbidity and mortality are 30 °C and 33 °C, respectively. Approximately 73.1% of heat-related patients visited hospitals when temperature was between 30 °C and 33 °C. We validated the developed HWWS by using both the threshold temperatures of morbidity and mortality. The area under curves (AUCs) of the proposed model were 0.74 and 0.86 at Level-1 and Level-2, respectively. On the other hand, the AUCs of the model using only the mortality threshold were 0.60 and 0.86 at Level-1 and Level-2, respectively. The AUCs of the model using only the morbidity threshold were 0.73 and 0.78 at Level-1 and Level-2, respectively. The results suggest that the updated HWWS can help to reduce the impact of heatwaves, particularly on vulnerable groups, by providing the customized information. This also indicates that the HWWS could effectively mitigate the risk of morbidity and mortality.

The year 2015 brought two landmark agreements that signaled a growing willingness from many countries to transition onto more sustainable development paths. The first of these landmark agreements, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), endorsed a range of 17 social, economic, and environmental goals to help developed and developing countries reorient development paths from 2015 to 2030. In line with principles of sustainable development, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development called on all countries to formulate and implement integrated development strategies that worked across multiple social, economic, and environmental objectives. With the agreement over the SDGs, policymakers would seek integrated solutions to a variety of development issues, including climate change.

Recently, South Korea announced it would make efforts to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Korea already has been working to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with diverse policies and measures in many sectors. However, climate change is not the only environmental issue that is a concern for South Korea. Annual average PM2.5 concentrations were 23μg/m3 in 2018 and 2019 (National Institute of Environmental Research 2020). National emission standards for PM2.5 have been exeeded over 50 times in 2018 and 2019. It is expected that annual premature mortality associated with PM2.5 will be the highest among Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (OECD 2017). The South Korean government has to deal with these two serious environmental and health risks like many other countries. Co-control policies to reduce PM2.5 and GHGs simultaneously therefore have become a priority for South Korea. Carefully designed co-control and co-benefit policies would help to resolve these problems in more cost-efficive manner. Policies that promote renewable energy have the potential to deliver these co-benefits. Increasing the share of renewable energy to replace coal-fired power generation is included in both South Korea’s Amendment to the Roadmap for the National GHG Reduction for 2030 and the Comprehensive Plan on Fine Dust Management.

This case study developed a framework to assess the spatial distribution of water-use vulnerability within a river basin under various scenarios of climate change, climate change adaptation...

Currently, heat-wave warning systems are based on temperature in many countries. However, heat-wave impacts depend not just on temperature but by socio-economic contexts, including age, occupation, income, household type, etc. This study developed a heatwave health impacts forecast model by considering socio-economic characteristics. In addition, this study evaluated the developed forecasting model by using Area Under the Curve (AUC).This study used health and meteorological data from 2011 to 2017. For the health data, we used two different measures, the number of mortality and the number of emergency department visits with heat-wave related diseases (respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, trauma, infectious diseases, mental and behavioral disorders). Those numbers were obtained from the National Statistical Office and the National Health Insurance Corporation, respectively. For meteorological data, we used temperature and humidity data, which were interpolated at 1 km spatial resolution.We analyzed the health impacts of heat-wave on health by age, type of work, and income. In addition, we analyzed the weighted effects of humidity on health. The results showed age over 65, outdoor workers and low-income groups are relatively vulnerable to heat-wave. Moreover, high relative humidity was a factor that increased the risk of mortality for the population of age over 65. Based on the analysis results, we categorized warning level to 5 levels (from 0 to 4), level 0 means low risk and level 4 means high risk. Warning levels were classified by considering the increased risk of disease and mortality with temperature. We developed warning levels for three different groups, the general public, the elderly, and the outdoor workers.The performance of the model measured based on AUC by using 2018 Heat-related illness monitoring data obtained from the Korea Centers for Disease Control. In the assessment for the risk level 4, the AUC ranged from 0.71 to 0.92, with an average of 0.80. The AUC value of above the risk level 3 also ranged from 0.71 to 0.92, with an average of 0.85.These results indicate that the health impact forecasting model suggested in the study is applicable as an operational forecast model. The results are expected to be used to develop a heat-wave early warning system in Korea.

This study analyzed mortality change rate (MCR: daily change rate of mortality at a given temperature per average summer mortality) for 229 municipalities in Korea considering age, occupation, household type, chronic diseases, and regional temperature distribution. We found that the MCR for heat wave differs depending on socioeconomic factors and the temperature distribution in the region. The MCRs for the elderly (&ge, 65 years of age), outdoor workers, one-person households, and chronic disease patients start to increase at lower temperatures and react more sensitively to temperature than others. For the socioeconomic factors considered in this study, occupation was found to be the most significant factor for the MCR differences (outdoor workers 1.17 and others 1.10 above 35 &deg, C, p &lt, 0.01). The MCRs of elderly outdoor workers increased consistently with temperature, while the MCRs of younger outdoor workers decreased at 33 &deg, C, the heat wave warning level in Korea. The MCRs in lower temperature regions start to increase at 28 &deg, C, whereas the MCRs start to increase at 30 &deg, C in higher temperature regions. The results of this study suggest that heat wave policies should be based on contextualized impacts considering age, occupation, household type, chronic disease, and regional temperature distribution.

We analyzed the relationship between the temperature and traffic accidents in Seoul-Incheon, Busan, Daegu, Daejeon, and Gwangju by the time-of-day (06:00 to 22:00, divided into segments of 4 h) and age of casualties between 2012 and 2017 for the summer season (June to August). A generalized additive model and meta-analysis were employed to analyze this relationship. We found that the threshold temperatures was observed to be approximately 30 °C. Above this temperature, traffic accidents increased in four urban areas, except Busan, which is a popular tourist location. In total, traffic accidents increased by approximately 0.59% (95% confidence interval of 0.41–0.75) per 1 °C increase in the daily maximum temperature, with substantial differences between the different areas, ranging from 0.12% (CI = −0.26–0.50) in Busan to 1.08% (CI = 0.45–1.71) in Gwangju. The morning and evening hours showed a greater increase in traffic accidents than other timeframes. The increase in traffic accidents for young casualties was statistically significant at all times, and that for elderly casualties was observed at 10:00–14:00 and 18:00–22:00. The results of this study could provide information for developing customized traffic accident reduction policies considering time-of-day, age of casualties, and type of city.

This study proposes the methodology to identify heatwave hotspots in Seoul, the metropolis of Korea, using high-resolution data. Resident credit data, population mobility data, and temperature observation data are analyzed to determine vulnerable regions to heatwaves. Potentially vulnerable regions are derived in two ways: static vulnerable regions (SVRs) and dynamic vulnerable regions (DVRs), depending on their characteristics. SVRs are determined by low-income (lower 20% income quantile) residential areas fixed on time. In contrast, DVRs vary with the time and day of the week. DVRs are defined by the place less responsive to heatwaves, where are with low population variability and low correlation with temperature. The final vulnerable regions, so-called hotspots, are determined by the high temperature predicted area where the SVRs and DVRs intersect. We examine how to remove commuting-related displacement signals, which are represented as noise when analyzing population mobility. An example of the hotspots identification result is also shown using temperature hindcast data generated by the Korean Meteorological Administration short-range forecast system. Applying the vulnerability information can improve the quality of disaster planning and decision-making by highlighting the time and area of need for resources in the implementation of short- and long-term disaster response.

There has been growing concern over the effects of heat waves on health. However, the effects of heat waves on the health of individuals in vulnerable groups have rarely been examined. We aimed to investigate the acute health effects of heat waves in elderly individuals living in rural areas and to survey their adaptation capacity. Repeated measurements of body temperature (BT), blood pressure, sleep disturbance, and indoor temperature were conducted up to six times for each of 104 elderly individuals living in rural areas of South Korea during the 2018 heat wave. Changes in BT, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) according to variations in indoor and outdoor temperature were analyzed using linear mixed effect models controlling for age, sex, smoking, and drug use. We also surveyed heat wave adaptation capacity, heat wave shelters, and self-reported health problems. The average indoor temperature measured during the study period was 30.5°C (range: 22.9–38.3°C) and that of ambient temperature was 30.6°C (range: 24.6–36.3°C). BT significantly increased with indoor and outdoor temperatures. The effect on BT was greater in elderly women and the elderly with hypertension. DBP generally decreased with increasing indoor temperature, though the correlation was only statistically significant among the elderly with hypertension. Only 22 (21.2%) individuals used air conditioners during the heat wave. Most did not use an air conditioner mainly to avoid high electricity costs. Of the participants, 58.7% reported experiencing sleep disturbance, which was the most frequent self-reported health problem. Elderly individuals living in rural areas are directly exposed to high temperatures during heat waves, and their vital signs are sensitive to increases in indoor temperature due to poor adaptation capacity. Well-designed strategies for alleviating health-related stress during heat waves are necessary.

Climate action is goal 13 of UN&rsquo, s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Future impacts of climate change depend on climatic changes, the level of climate change policy, both mitigation and adaptation, and socio-economic status and development pathways. To investigate the climate change policy impact of socio-economic development pathways, we develop three pathways. Climate change affects socio-economic development in many ways. We interpret global storylines into South Korean contexts: Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1 (SSP1), SSP2, and SSP3 for population, economy, and land use. SSP elements and proxies were identified and elaborated through stakeholder participatory workshops, demand survey on potential users, past trends, and recent national projections of major proxies. Twenty-nine proxies were quantified using sector-specific models and downscaled where possible. Socio-economic and climate scenarios matrixes enable one to quantify the contribution of climate, population, economic development, and land-use change in future climate change impacts. Economic damage between climate scenarios is different in SSPs, and it highlights that SSPs are one of the key components for future climate change impacts. Achieving SDGs generates additional incentives for local and national governments as it can reduce mitigation and adaptation policy burden.

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature–mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991–2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea.

Green growth, or environmentally sustainable economic growth, is imperative in light of current environmental crises and resource depletion. Green indicators and statistics can measure environmentally sustainable development; they thus enable evaluating green growth and support its integration into policy. As such, this study uses an OECD framework to select a set of 12 indicators, designed for cross-country comparisons of green growth strategies. These indicators are assessed for 30 countries, including South Korea. Current data for each international indicator is compared to the 10th percentile of OECD countries and evaluated on a scale of 1–10. South Korea ranked 17th among the 30: its natural capital and quality of life indexes are relatively high, but its economic activity scores (production, consumption, and trade) are relatively low. These findings suggest that production and consumption processes must be made more environmentally and economically sustainable. Given that South Korea's green growth strategy currently emphasizes economic value, the country is moving in the right direction and our analysis projects that economic activity scores will rise in the future. This study offers a novel tool for measuring overall effects of green growth strategies, providing the information necessary to re-shape national economic plans based on current circumstances.

기후변화가 산업단지에 미치는 영향은 지자체에까지 확산될 수 있으며 물리적, 경제적인 영향이 미쳐지므로 어떠한 물리적, 경제적 변수에 의해 산업단지의 피해가 초래되는지 규명될 필요가 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 국가 산업단지를 대상으로 산업단지 및 입지 시군구의 물리적, 경제적 특성을 기반으로 한 기후변화 취약성 평가를 수행하고 산업단지 입지에 영향을 미치는 시간, 공간별 극한기후를 규명하고자 하였다. 산업단지의 극한기후에 의한 취약성은 IPCC에서 제안한 상향식 취약성 평가 방법을 따라 분석되었으며 전력요구도, 위험지역유무 등 단지의 물리적 입지조건과 입지 지자체의 기반시설 현황, 지자체와 산업단지의 경제적 특성 등이 평가 기준으로 연구되었다. 기후노출, 민감도, 적응능력의 항목별 가중치와 항목내 변수들의 가중치 분석에 AHP가 적용되었다. 본 연구는 홍수, 가뭄,혹서, 혹한, 해수면상승에 대해 취약 입지 시군구를 밝혔고 홍수와 가뭄, 혹서와 혹한별로 대비되는취약성 결과가 나옴을 고찰하였다. 또한, 각 극한기후별로 적응능력 함양이 시급한 시군구를 밝혀 지자체 차원의 노력이 필요한 시군구를 규명하였다. 서울시 금천구는 산업단지 입지에 가장 취약한 지역으로 나타났으며 홍수, 혹한에서 높은 취약성을 보임이 분석되었다. 한편, 극한기후의 발생에도 불구하고 전반적으로 낮은 취약성을 보인 산업단지 입지 지자체는 광주광역시, 전라북도 익산, 제주시 Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, Vol. 22, No. 6(2013) pp.627~637http://dx.doi.org/10.14249/eia.2013.22.6.627 연구논문 Corresponding Author: Changwan Seo, Environmental Planning Istitute, Seoul National University, Daehak-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul,Korea Tel: +82-2-877-4003 Fax:82-2-883-8620 E-mail: dharmascw@hanmail.net

This study quantifies the costs and benefits of Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) of reducing air pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at a minimal cost in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMPA) for the year 2014 and compares with current air quality management plans and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation plans. The results estimated health benefits from prevention of premature mortality under the IES scenario as 14 trillion Korean won (won) and associated cost as −3.6 trillion won, yielding total benefit, difference of benefits and costs, of 18 trillion won. With the inclusion of benefits from GHG reductions, the total benefits result in 147 trillion won. The difference of human health benefits and costs of air quality management plan and GHG reduction strategies result in 14 trillion won and 8 trillion won, respectively. The research shows that benefits of integrating air quality management and GHG reduction measures are greater than those obtained by air quality management and GHG reduction measures individually.

This study assesses the co-benefits of an air quality management plan and CO 2 emission control measures in the Seoul metropolitan area. This co-benefit analysis includes NO x , PM 10 and CO 2 emission reductions and cost estimations, yielding cost-effectiveness values for each of the measures. It has been found that fuel switching from BC-oil to LNG, CNG bus operation are most cost effective in NO x and PM 10 emission reduction. For CO 2 emission reduction, landfill gas reuse and fuel switching were the most effective option. The correlation of cost-effectiveness analysis indicated that fuel switching and CNG bus operation were the most cost effective option to reduce NO x and CO 2 , PM 10 and CO 2 emissions at the same time. Based on cost effectiveness and co-benefit analysis, this study developed an alternative scenario of emission reduction measures through optimization in order to achieve both air quality improvements and CO 2 reduction targets at the minimum cost. These integrated environmental strategies make it possible to reduce 10.3 Mt of CO 2 emissions, which is beyond the target of the CO 2 reduction strategy, and achieve air quality improvement targets together and at a lower cost than the CO 2 emission reduction and air quality improvement measures combined.

This study quantifies the costs and impacts of six scenarios for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions in North East Asia (NEA) within an integrated probabilistic analysis. The inclusion of the cooling effect of sulphates means that CO 2 control in China would be likely to increase the regional temperature in NEA in the short-term. This is because CO 2 control measures would also automatically control SO 2 emissions, and so reduce their cooling effect. The scenario that involves no control for CO 2 and SO 2 emissions has the lowest mean total cumulative net present cost (NPC) as compared to scenarios with various SO 2 controls or with CO 2 reduced to 5% below year 1990 levels (in China and Japan), or any combination of SO 2 + CO 2 controls at these levels. The mean value of the total cumulative NPC of climate change damage, acid rain damage, CO 2 and SO 2 control cost in China for no CO 2 or SO 2 control is about US$ 0.1 trillion, compared, for instance, to about US$ 1.1 trillion for CO 2 emission stabilisation at 1990 levels and no SO 2 control. SO 2 control also brings more disadvantages than advantages in China and Japan. The higher mean climate change impacts and control costs outweigh the benefit of lower acid rain damage. However, strict SO 2 control brings more benefits than costs in South Korea where there is a large urban population and the sensitivity to acid rain is high. However, the impacts of emissions and valuation of these effects are very uncertain. Uncertainty analysis shows that the key determinants of the total NPC of costs and damages are exported climate change damages, followed by domestic climate change damages, and acid rain damages. The use of other valuation methods would make health damage bigger than this study’s estimation and acid rain damage could be a major concern in the future.