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Enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score is a noninvasive assessment for liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the performance of changes in ELF score 3 years apart in combination with liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) score to predict HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. This is a prospective cohort study. Patients who underwent transient elastography (TE) examinations and at intermediate or high risk of HCC defined by LSM-HCC score were invited to repeat the examination about 3 years later. Their serum samples at these two time points were retrieved to assess the ELF score changes. The primary endpoint was HCC. There were 445 CHB patients (males: 73.9%; mean age: 51.6 ± 10.3 years) who received two TE examinations and ELF scores. Among them, 252 (56.6%) and 193 (43.4%) patients were at intermediate and high HCC risk at first assessment defined by LSM-HCC score, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the changes in ELF score could stratify the HCC risk in both intermediate- and high-risk patients defined by LSM-HCC score (p < 0.001 for intermediate-risk group; p = 0.011 for high-risk group). Patients remained having mild or moderate fibrosis at both assessments had the lowest risk of HCC (4.0%), followed by patients with fibrosis regressed (11.3%; p = 0.014) during a mean follow-up of 163 months. Patients remained having or progressed to severe fibrosis were at highest risk of HCC (>20%). Consistent findings were demonstrated in patients at both intermediate and high risk of HCC defined by LSM-HCC score. Dynamic changes in ELF score provided additional value to LSM-HCC score for stratifying HCC risk in CHB patients., (© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of Viral Hepatitis published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic decompensation persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model to predict the risk of liver-related outcomes (LROs) following HBsAg seroclearance., Methods: A total of 4,787 consecutive patients who achieved HBsAg seroclearance between 2000 and 2022 were enrolled from 6 centers in South Korea and a territory-wide database in Hong Kong, comprising the training (n=944), internal validation (n=1,102), and external validation (n=2,741) cohorts. Three machine learning-based models were developed and compared in each cohort. The primary outcome was the development of any LRO, including HCC, decompensation, and liver-related death., Results: During a median follow-up of 55.2 (interquartile range=30.1-92.3) months, 123 LROs were confirmed (1.1%/person-year) in the Korean cohort. A model with the best predictive performance in the training cohort was selected as the final model (designated as PLAN-B-CURE), which was constructed using a gradient boosting algorithm and 7 variables (age, sex, diabetes, alcohol consumption, cirrhosis, albumin, and platelet count). Compared to previous HCC prediction models, PLAN-B-CURE showed significantly superior accuracy in the training cohort (c-index: 0.82 vs. 0.63-0.70, all P<0.001; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.86 vs. 0.62-0.72, all P<0.01; area under the precision-recall curve: 0.53 vs. 0.13-0.29, all P<0.01). PLAN-B-CURE showed a reliable calibration function (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P>0.05) and these results were reproduced in the internal and external validation cohorts., Conclusion: This novel machine learning model consisting of 7 variables provides reliable risk prediction of LRO after HBsAg seroclearance that can be used for personalized surveillance., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Moon Haeng Hur: Nothing to declare; Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip: Terry Yip has served as an advisory committee member and a speaker for Gilead Sciences; Seung Up Kim: Nothing to declare; Hyun Woong Lee: Nothing to declare; Han Ah Lee: Nothing to declare; Hyung-Chul Lee: Nothing to declare; Grace Lai-Hung Wong: Grace Wong has served as an advisory committee member for AstraZeneca, Gilead Sciences and Janssen, and as a speaker for Abbott, AbbVie, Ascletis, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Echosens, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, and Roche. She has also received a research grant from Gilead Sciences; Vincent Wai-Sun Wong: Vincent Wong has served as a consultant or advisory committee member for AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Echosens, Intercept, Inventiva, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, and TARGET PharmaSolutions; and a speaker for Abbott, AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, and Novo Nordisk. He has received a research grant from Gilead Sciences, and is a cofounder of Illuminatio Medical Technology Limited; Jun Yong Park: Nothing to declare; Sang Hoon Ahn: Nothing to declare; Beom Kyung Kim: Nothing to declare; Hwi Young Kim: Nothing to declare; Yeon Seok Seo: Nothing to declare; Hyunjae Shin: Nothing to declare; Jeayeon Park: Nothing to declare; Yunmi Ko: Nothing to declare; Youngsu Park: Nothing to declare; Yun Bin Lee: Yun Bin Lee receives research grants from Samjin Pharmaceuticals and Yuhan Pharmaceuticals; Su Jong Yu: Su Jong Yu receives research grants from Yuhan Pharmaceuticals and Daewoong Pharmaceuticals; Sang Hyub Lee: Nothing to disclose; Yoon Jun Kim: Yoon Jun Kim receives research grants from BTG, Boston Scientific, AstraZeneca, Gilead Sciences, Samjin, BL&H, and Bayer, and lecture fees from Roche, Abbvie, Eisai, Boston Scientific, BMS, BTG, Bayer, MSD, Novo Nordisk, Green Cross Cell, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Gilead Sciences; Jung-Hwan Yoon: Jung-Hwan Yoon receives research grants from Bayer, Daewoong Pharmaceutical, and Bukwang Pharmaceutical; Jeong-Hoon Lee: Jeong-Hoon Lee receives research grants from Yuhan Pharmaceuticals and GreenCross Cell, and lecture fees from GreenCross Cell, Daewoong Pharmaceuticals, and Gilead Korea., (Copyright © 2024 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events., Methods: Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment., Results: The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model., Conclusions: The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH., (Copyright © 2024 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background and Aims: A single-nation study reported that pretreatment HBV viral load is associated with on-treatment risk of HCC in patients who are HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B initiating antiviral treatment. We aimed to validate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in a larger, multinational cohort., Approach and Results: Using a multinational cohort from Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan involving 7545 adult patients with HBeAg-positive, without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment with baseline HBV viral load ≥5.00 log 10 IU/mL, HCC risk was estimated by baseline viral load. HBV viral load was analyzed as a categorical variable. During continuous antiviral treatment (median, 4.28 y), HCC developed in 200 patients (incidence rate, 0.61 per 100 person-years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a nonlinear pattern. HCC risk was lowest with the highest baseline viral load (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL; incidence rate, 0.10 per 100 person-years), but increased sharply as baseline viral load decreased. The adjusted HCC risk was 8.05 times higher (95% CI, 3.34-19.35) with baseline viral load ≥6.00 and <7.00 log 10 IU/mL (incidence rate, 1.38 per 100 person-years) compared with high (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL) baseline viral load ( p <0.001)., Conclusions: In a multinational cohort of adult patients with HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B, baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk despite antiviral treatment. Patients with the highest viral load who initiated treatment had the lowest long-term risk of HCC development., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Background: Statins have multiple benefits in patients with metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)., Aim: To explore the effects of statins on the long-term risk of all-cause mortality, liver-related clinical events (LREs) and liver stiffness progression in patients with MASLD., Methods: This cohort study collected data on patients with MASLD undergoing at least two vibration-controlled transient elastography examinations at 16 tertiary referral centres. Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the association between statin usage and long-term risk of all-cause mortality and LREs stratified by compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD): baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) of ≥10 kPa. Liver stiffness progression was defined as an LSM increase of ≥20% for cACLD and from <10 kPa to ≥10 or LSM for non-cACLD. Liver stiffness regression was defined as LSM reduction from ≥10 kPa to <10 or LSM decrease of ≥20% for cACLD., Results: We followed up 7988 patients with baseline LSM 5.9 kPa (IQR 4.6-8.2) for a median of 4.6 years. At baseline, 40.5% of patients used statins, and cACLD was present in 17%. Statin usage was significantly associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR=0.233; 95% CI 0.127 to 0.426) and LREs (adjusted HR=0.380; 95% CI 0.268 to 0.539). Statin usage was also associated with lower liver stiffness progression rates in cACLD (HR=0.542; 95% CI 0.389 to 0.755) and non-cACLD (adjusted HR=0.450; 95% CI 0.342 to 0.592), but not with liver stiffness regression (adjusted HR=0.914; 95% CI 0.778 to 1.074)., Conclusions: Statin usage was associated with a relatively lower long-term risk of all-cause mortality, LREs and liver stiffness progression in patients with MASLD., Competing Interests: Competing interests: TC-FY reported serving as an advisory committee member and a speaker for Gilead Sciences outside the submitted work. EAT reported receiving personal fees as advisory board member for Boehringer, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer and Siemens; receiving speaker fees from Echosens, Novo Nordisk and AbbVie outside the submitted work. HH reported personal fees from AstraZeneca, personal fees from Bristol Myers-Squibb, personal fees from MSD, personal fees from Novo Nordisk, personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, personal fees from KOWA and personal fees from GW Phara outside the submitted work, and grants from AstraZeneca, grants from Echosens, grants from Gilead Sciences, grants from Intercept, grants from MSD, grants from Novo Nordisk and grants from Pfizer outside the submitted work. JB reported receiving grants and personal fees from Echosens outside the submitted work. JLC reported receiving other from Echosens Clinical Trials during the conduct of the study; grants from Roche Pharma and other from Gilead Advisory Board outside the submitted work. WKC reported serving as consultant or advisory board member for Zuellig Pharma, Abbott, Roche, AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim and Novo Nordisk; and a speaker for Novo Nordisk, Abbott, Echosens, Viatris and Hisky Medical. AJS reported receiving grants from Intercept, personal consulting fees from Gilead, grants from Merck, personal consulting fees from Pfizer, grants and personal consulting fees from Eli Lilly, grants and personal consulting fees from Novo Nordisk, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, Histoindex, and stock options from Genfit, Tiziana, Durect, Inversago and personal consulting fees from Genentech, ALnylam, Regeneron, Zydus, LG chem, Hanmi, Madrigal, Path AI, 89 Bio and stock options from Galmed outside the submitted work. VdL reported receiving non-financial support from Echosens during the conduct of the study. PNN reported receiving grants from Novo Nordisk, advisory board and personal consulting fees, honoraria for lectures and travel expenses from Novo Nordisk, personal consulting and advisory board fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, Intercept, Poxel Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Pfizer, MSD, Sun Pharma, Eli Lilly, Madrigal, GSK and non-financial support for educational events from AiCME outside the submitted work. LC reported receiving personal fees for consulting and speakers bureau from Echosens during the conduct of the study; personal consultancy fees from Boston pharmaceutical and Gilead, speaker bureau and consultancy personal fees from GSK, personal speaker bureau fees from Inventiva, personal consultancy fees from Madrigal, personal Consultancy fees from MSD and Novo Nordisk, personal consultancy fees from Pfizer, Sagimet and Siemens Healthineers outside the submitted work. CF reported being in the full-time employment of Echosens during the conduct of the study. GL-HW reported receiving personal fees from Echosens during the conduct of the study; grants from Gilead Sciences Research outside the submitted work. MS-WC reported being in the full-time employment of Echosens during the conduct of the study. MR-G reported receiving personal fees from Echosens outside the submitted work. SUK reported personal fees from Gilead Sciences, personal fees from GSK, personal fees from Bayer, personal fees from Eisai, personal fees from AbbVie, personal fees from Echosens, personal fees from MSD, personal fees from Bristol-Myers Squibb and personal fees from AstraZeneca outside the submitted work, and grants from AbbVie, grants from Bristol-Myers Squibb, and grants from Gilead Sciences outside the submitted work. VW-SW reported receiving personal speaker fees from Abbott, consultant and speaker fees from AbbVie, personal consultant fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Echosens, Gilead Sciences, grants from Gilead Sciences, personal consultant fees from Intercept, Inventiva, Novo Nordisk, personal consultant fees from Pfizer, Sagimet Biosciences, TARGET PharmaSolutions, personal speaker fees from Unilab, personal consultant fees from Visirna, and being a cofounder of Illuminatio outside the submitted work. CDB has received grant support from Echosens. No other disclosures were reported., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Bariatric surgery and lifestyle modification are important treatments for obesity, a risk factor for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). Studies have related weight reduction with changes in MASH, however, few have used imaging to investigate effects on liver health. We evaluated differences in liver response to obesity treatment using disease activity iron corrected T1 (cT1) and proton density fat fraction (PDFF) in patients with both obesity and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)., Methods: Thirty-four patients with obesity and MASLD were recruited between March 2019 to February 2022 from a tertiary hospital in this longitudinal study; 13 underwent laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) alongside intraoperative liver biopsy, and 21 underwent a 4-month lifestyle modification program (LMP). All patients had multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and 4-months. Diagnostic accuracy to identify MASH was assessed using the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve., Results: Four (31%) of patients in the LSG group had MASH [non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NAS) activity score ≥4] on liver biopsy. PDFF and cT1 correlated with the NAS activity score [r=0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.453 to 0.943, P<0.001] and (r=0.70, 95% CI: 0.228 to 0.907, P=0.008, respectively). There was good AUROC curve for cT1 (0.89, 95% CI: 0.67 to 1.00, P=0.031) and PDFF (0.83, 95% CI: 0.57 to 1.00, P=0.064) to identify MASH. At follow-up, weight reduction -22.8% (P=0.013) vs. -1.3% (P=0.262) resulted in cT1 reduction of -8.04% (864 ms, P=0.025) vs. -3.87% (907 ms, P=0.083) in the LSG vs. LMP group, respectively. Significant differences between interventions were observed for percentage PDFF decrease (-64.52% vs. -29.16%, P=0.001). Both biomarkers were significantly reduced in the LSG group (cT1 by -8.04%, P=0.025, PDFF by -64.52%, P=0.012), while only PDFF (-29.16%, P=0.012) was significantly reduced in the LMP group., Conclusions: MRI biomarkers may have some utility to monitor MASH following intervention in patients with obesity allowing objective comparison between intervention strategies. Compared to LMP, LSG was more effective in improving liver health., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/qims-24-148/coif). E.S. is an employee of Perspectum Ltd. Perspectum Ltd. is a privately funded commercial enterprise that develops medical devices to address unmet clinical needs, including LiverMultiScan®. V.W.S.W. has served as a consultant for AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Echosens, Gilead Sciences, Intercept, Inventiva, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Sagimet Biosciences, TARGET PharmaSolutions, and Visirna; and a speaker for Abbott, AbbVie, Echosens, Gilead Sciences, Novo Nordisk, and Unilab. He has received a research grant from Gilead Sciences, and is a co-founder of Illuminatio Medical Technology. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (2024 Quantitative Imaging in Medicine and Surgery. All rights reserved.)

In managing metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, which affects over 30% of the general population, effective noninvasive biomarkers for assessing disease severity, monitoring disease progression, predicting the development of liver-related complications, and assessing treatment response are crucial. The advantage of simple fibrosis scores lies in their widespread accessibility through routinely performed blood tests and extensive validation in different clinical settings. They have shown reasonable accuracy in diagnosing advanced fibrosis and good performance in excluding the majority of patients with a low risk of liver-related complications. Among patients with elevated serum fibrosis scores, a more specific fibrosis and imaging biomarker has proved useful to accurately identify patients at risk of liver-related complications. Among specific fibrosis blood biomarkers, enhanced liver fibrosis is the most widely utilized and has been approved in the United States as a prognostic biomarker. For imaging biomarkers, the availability of vibration-controlled transient elastography has been largely improved over the past years, enabling the use of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) for accurate assessment of significant and advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis. Combining LSM with other routinely available blood tests enhances the ability to diagnose at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis; and predict liver-related complications, some reaching an accuracy comparable to that of liver biopsy. Magnetic resonance imaging-based modalities provide the most accurate quantification of liver fibrosis, though the current utilization is limited to research settings. Expanding their future use in clinical practice depends on factors such as cost and facility availability.

Background: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)., Aims: To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development., Methods: We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong., Results: In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm 3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively., Conclusions: The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm 3 /L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is an emerging risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD). N-terminal propeptide of collagen type 3 (PRO-C3) is a biomarker of advanced fibrosis in MAFLD and PRO-C3 may be involved in renal fibrosis. We aimed to use PRO-C3 measurements to generate a new algorithmic score to test the prediction of MAFLD with chronic kidney disease (MAFLD-CKD)., Methods: A derivation and independent validation cohort of 750 and 129 Asian patients with biopsy-confirmed MAFLD were included. Serum PRO-C3 concentration was measured and regression analyses were performed to examine associations with MAFLD-CKD. A derivative algorithm for MAFLD-CKD risk prediction was evaluated with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis., Results: The study included two Asian cohorts (n = 180 with MAFLD-CKD; mean-eGFR: 94.93 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ; median-urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio: 6.58 mg/mmol). PRO-C3 was associated with the severity of MAFLD-CKD and independently associated with MAFLD-CKD (adjusted odds ratio = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.23, p < .001). A new non-invasive score (termed PERIOD) including PRO-C3 efficiently predicted MAFLD-CKD (AUROC = .842, 95% CI: .805-.875). Accuracy, specificity and negative predictive values were 80.2%, 85.1% and 88.4%, respectively. In the validation cohort, the PERIOD score had good diagnostic performance (AUROC = .807, 95% CI: .691-.893) with similar results in all patient subgroups. In the MAFLD-CKD subgroup, the accuracy for identifying advanced fibrosis was further improved by combining the PRO-C3-based ADAPT with the Agile 3+ scores (AUROC = .90, 95% CI: .836-.964)., Conclusions: The PERIOD score is helpful for accurately predicting the risk of MAFLD-CKD. PRO-C3 can also be used to assess liver fibrosis in people with MAFLD-CKD., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Importance: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis., Objective: To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE)., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests., Results: A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group., Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.

Background & Aims: The use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a reduction in bone mineral density and an increase in bone metabolism biomarkers. However, data on clinical bone fractures remain limited. We evaluated the impact of TDF compared to entecavir on the risk of fracture in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)., Methods: Patients with CHB aged ≥60 years receiving entecavir or TDF between January 2008 and December 2022 were identified using a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. The risk of incident fracture in entecavir- and TDF-treated patients before and after month 24 were compared after propensity score matching., Results: A total of 41,531 patients with CHB (mean age 69.8±7.8 years, 61.6% male) receiving entecavir (n = 39,897 [96.1%]) and TDF (n = 1,634 [3.9%]) were analysed. At a median follow-up of 25.3 (9.1-58.5) months, 1,733 (4.2%) patients developed incident fracture. Patients with incident fracture were more likely to have diabetes, hypertension, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, and a history of fracture. Compared with propensity score-matched entecavir-treated patients, the risk of incident fracture in TDF-treated patients was comparable in the first 24 months (weighted subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.99, 95% CI 0.56-1.73, p = 0.960) but increased after month 24 (weighted sHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.11-2.93, p = 0.019). The 24-, 60-, and 96-month cumulative incidences (95% CI) of fracture in TDF-treated and entecavir-treated patients were 2.3% (1.6%-3.4%) vs. 2.6% (1.9%-3.5%), 6.4% (5.0%-8.2%) vs. 4.7% (3.8%-6.0%), and 10.2% (8.3%-12.6%) vs. 6.8% (5.4%-8.5%), respectively., Conclusions: The risk of fracture increased with TDF treatment for ≥24 months in elderly patients with CHB. Selection of nucleos(t)ide analogues should be individualised based on age and comorbidities., Impact and Implications: Previous literature suggested that the use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a decrease in bone mineral density. However, data on the impact of TDF on long-term incident clinical fracture remains scarce. In this real-world territory-wide study of 41,531 treated patients with chronic hepatitis B in Hong Kong, patients who received TDF were at a higher risk of fracture after 2 years of treatment than those who received entecavir. Given the ageing population of patients with chronic hepatitis B and the rising prevalence of comorbidities, our findings support the current treatment guidelines that recommend selecting antiviral treatment based on age and comorbidities., (Copyright © 2023 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: aMAP score, as a hepatocellular carcinoma risk score, is proven to be associated with the degree of chronic hepatitis B-related liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the ability of aMAP score for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly NAFLD)-related fibrosis diagnosis and establish a machine-learning (ML) model to improve the diagnostic performance., Methods: A total of 946 biopsy-proved MASLD patients from China and the United States were included in the analysis. The aMAP score, demographic/clinical indices and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were included in seven ML algorithms to build fibrosis diagnostic models in the training set (N = 703). The performance of ML models was evaluated in the external validation set (N = 125)., Results: The AUROCs of aMAP versus fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio (APRI) in cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were (0.850 vs. 0.857 [P = 0.734], 0.735 [P = 0.001]) and (0.759 vs. 0.795 [P = 0.027], 0.709 [P = 0.049]). When using dual cut-off values, aMAP had a smaller uncertainty area and higher accuracy (26.9%, 86.6%) than FIB-4 (37.3%, 85.0%) and APRI (59.0%, 77.3%) in cirrhosis diagnosis. The seven ML models performed satisfactorily in most cases. In the validation set, the ML model comprising LSM and 5 indices (including age, sex, platelets, albumin and total bilirubin used in aMAP calculator), built by logistic regression algorithm (called LSM-plus model), exhibited excellent performance. In cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis detection, the LSM-plus model had higher accuracy (96.8%, 91.2%) than LSM alone (86.4%, 67.2%) and Agile score (76.0%, 83.2%), respectively. Additionally, the LSM-plus model also displayed high specificity (cirrhosis: 98.3%; advanced fibrosis: 92.6%) with satisfactory AUROC (0.932, 0.875, respectively) and sensitivity (88.9%, 82.4%, respectively)., Conclusions: The aMAP score is capable of diagnosing MASLD-related fibrosis. The LSM-plus model could accurately identify MASLD-related cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs)., Methods: MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve., Results: We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts., Conclusions: The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs., (Copyright © 2024 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We thank Allaire et al [...].

Background: Bacterial infections are not prevalent among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, while unnecessary prescription of antibiotics was commonly observed. This study aimed to determine the impact of procalcitonin testing on antibiotics prescription in the real-world setting., Methods: We performed a territory-wide retrospective cohort study involving all laboratory-confirmed patients hospitalized in public hospitals in Hong Kong in 2020 with COVID-19. We determined the prevalence of bacterial co-infections (documented infections within 72 h of admission) and secondary bacterial infections (infections after 72 h of admission) and antibiotics consumption, and the correlation between procalcitonin testing and antibiotics prescription., Results: The cohort included 8666 patients, with mean age 45.3 ± 19.9 years, 48.5% male, and comorbidities in 26.9%. Among 2688 patients with bacterial cultures performed, 147 (5.5%) had bacterial co-infections, and 222 (8.3%) had secondary bacterial infections. Antibiotics were prescribed for 2773 (32.0%) patients during the hospital admission. Procalcitonin tests were performed for 2543 (29.3%) patients. More patients with procalcitonin testing received antibiotics (65.9% vs. 17.9%, p < 0.001). Procalcitonin testing was associated with 5-fold increased risk of antibiotics prescription after adjusting for confounding variables. At hospital level, procalcitonin testing correlated with antibiotics prescription. Patients with procalcitonin level < 0.5 ng/mL had a lower probability of antibiotics initiation and shorter duration of antibiotics therapy., Conclusions: Procalcitonin testing was not associated with lower prescription of antibiotics. Patients with low procalcitonin level had lower antibiotics exposure, supporting the use of procalcitonin to exclude bacterial infections aiding early stopping of antibiotics among patients hospitalized with COVID-19., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Context: Concomitant obesity is common among patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), yet adjunctive therapy options are scarce., Objective: We assess the efficacy and adverse outcomes of glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) analogues when used as adjunctive therapy for T1DM., Method: PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central, and Scopus databases were searched for randomized controlled trials up to December 2022. Efficacy outcomes were A1c level, body weight, and total daily insulin (TDI) after ≥12 weeks of GLP-1 therapy. We also assessed 12 different adverse outcomes. Subgroup analysis was done for newly diagnosed or C-peptide positive (C-pos) patients. We report the certainty of evidence based on the GRADE assessment tool., Results: A total of 24 studies using 4 different GLP-1 analogues with a total of 3377 patients were included. Liraglutide had the most substantial evidence with effect sizes on A1c (-0.09%/mg), weight (-2.2 kg/mg), and TDI (-4.32 IU/mg). Liraglutide dose was the greatest predictor of greater average weight loss and TDI decrease but was associated with higher odds of nausea (OR 6.5; 95% CI, 5.0-8.4) and ketosis (OR 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8). Odds of severe (OR 0.67; 95% CI, 0.43-1.04) or symptomatic hypoglycemia (OR 0.89; 95% CI, 0.53-1.51) were not significantly elevated. Among C-pos patients, greater A1c decrease (-0.51% vs -0.28%) but similar weight loss and TDI were seen. Effect sizes for exenatide were similar, but studies had higher risk of bias and safety data were sparse., Conclusion: Our meta-analysis supports therapeutic benefits of liraglutide for patients with T1DM mainly for weight loss and insulin dose reduction. Newly diagnosed or C-pos patients do not appear to experience greater weight loss benefits., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background and Aims: We aimed to determine the impact of the duration of type 2 diabetes (T2D) on the risk of liver-related events and all-cause mortality in patients with NAFLD., Approach and Results: We conducted a territory-wide cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD diagnosed between January 1, 2000, and July 31, 2021, in Hong Kong. T2D was defined by the use of any antidiabetic agents, laboratory tests, and/or diagnosis codes. The primary endpoint was liver-related events, defined as a composite endpoint of HCC and cirrhotic complications. To conduct a more granular assessment of the duration of T2D, we employed landmark analysis in four different ages of interest (biological age of 40, 50, 60, and 70 years). By multivariable analysis with adjustment of non-liver-related deaths, compared with patients without diabetes at age 60 (incidence rate of liver-related events: 0.70 per 1,000 person-years), the adjusted subdistribution HR (SHR) of liver-related events was 2.51 (95% CI: 1.32-4.77; incidence rate: 2.26 per 1,000 person-years) in patients with T2D duration < 5 years, 3.16 (95% CI: 1.59-6.31; incidence rate: 2.54 per 1,000 person-years) in those with T2D duration of 6-10 years, and 6.20 (95% CI: 2.62-14.65; incidence rate: 4.17 per 1000 person-years) in those with T2D duration more than 10 years. A similar association between the duration of T2D and all-cause mortality was also observed., Conclusions: Longer duration of T2D is significantly associated with a higher risk of liver-related events and all-cause mortality in patients with NAFLD., (Copyright © 2023 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Background: Early screening may prevent fibrosis progression in metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD)., Aims: We developed and validated MAFLD fibrosis score (MFS) for identifying advanced fibrosis (≥F3) among MAFLD patients., Methods: This cross-sectional, multicentre study consecutively recruited MAFLD patients receiving tertiary care (Malaysia as training cohort [n = 276] and Hong Kong and Wenzhou as validation cohort [n = 431]). Patients completed liver biopsy, vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and clinical and laboratory assessment within 1 week. We used machine learning to select 'highly important' predictors of advanced fibrosis, followed by backward stepwise regression to construct MFS formula., Results: MFS was composed of seven variables: age, body mass index, international normalised ratio, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, platelet count, and history of type 2 diabetes. MFS demonstrated an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.848 [95% CI 0.800-898] and 0.823 [0.760-0.886] in training and validation cohorts, significantly higher than aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (0.684 [0.603-0.765], 0.663 [0.588-0.738]), Fibrosis-4 index (0.793 [0.735-0.854], 0.737 [0.660-0.814]), and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (0.785 [0.731-0.844], 0.750 [0.674-0.827]) (DeLong's test p < 0.05). MFS could include 92.3% of patients using dual cut-offs of 14 and 15, with a correct prediction rate of 90.4%, resulting in a larger number of patients with correct diagnosis compared to other scores. A two-step MFS-VCTE screening algorithm demonstrated positive and negative predictive values and overall diagnostic accuracy of 93.4%, 89.5%, and 93.2%, respectively, with only 4.0% of patients classified into grey zone., Conclusion: MFS outperforms conventional non-invasive scores in predicting advanced fibrosis, contributing to screening in MAFLD patients., (© 2023 The Authors. Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objective: We aimed to test the hypothesis that automated fibrosis score calculation and electronic reminder messages could increase the detection of advanced liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes., Design: In this pragmatic randomised controlled trial at five general medical or diabetes clinics in Hong Kong and Malaysia, we randomly assigned patients in a 1:1 ratio to the intervention group with Fibrosis-4 index and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index automatically calculated based on routine blood tests, followed by electronic reminder messages to alert clinicians of abnormal results, or the control group with usual care. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with increased fibrosis scores who received appropriate care (referred for hepatology care or specific fibrosis assessment) within 1 year., Results: Between May 2020 and Oct 2021, 1379 patients were screened, of whom 533 and 528 were assigned to the intervention and control groups, respectively. A total of 55 out of 165 (33.3%) patients with increased fibrosis scores in the intervention group received appropriate care, compared with 4 of 131 (3.1%) patients in the control group (difference 30.2% (95% CI 22.4% to 38%); p<0.001). Overall, 11 out of 533 (2.1%) patients in the intervention group and 1 out of 528 (0.2%) patients in the control group were confirmed to have advanced liver disease (difference 1.9% (95% CI 0.61% to 3.5%); p=0.006)., Conclusion: Automated fibrosis score calculation and electronic reminders can increase referral of patients with type 2 diabetes and abnormal fibrosis scores at non-hepatology settings., Trial Registration Number: NCT04241575., Competing Interests: Competing interests: TC-FY has served as an advisory committee member and a speaker for Gilead Sciences. GL-HW has served as an advisory committee member for Gilead Sciences and Janssen, and as a speaker for Abbott, Abbvie, Ascletis, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Echosens, Gilead Sciences, Janssen and Roche. She has also received a research grant from Gilead Sciences. L-LL has served as an advisory committee member for Boehringer Ingelheim, Novo Nordisk and Viatris; and as a speaker for Abbott, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novo Nordisk, Roche, Sanofi, Servier and Zuellig Pharma. She has also received research grants from Abbott, AstraZeneca and Boehringer Ingelheim. HLYC has served as an Independent Non-Executive Director for Shanghai Henlius Biotech; as an advisory board member for Aligos, Aptorum, Arbutus, Janssen, Gilead, Glaxo-Smith-Kline, Roche, Vaccitech, Vir Biotechnology and Virion Therapeutics; and as a speaker for Gilead, Roche and Viatris. AP-SK has received honorarium for consultancy or giving lectures from Abbott, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli-Lilly, Kyowa Kirin, Merck Serono, Nestle, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer and Sanofi. WKC has served as an advisory committee member for Roche, AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim and Novo Nordisk; and a speaker for Hisky Medical and Viatris. VW-SW has served as an advisory committee member for AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Echosens, Gilead Sciences, Intercept, Inventiva, Merck, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Sagimet Biosciences and TARGET Pharma Solutions; and a speaker for Abbott, AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, Novo Nordisk and Unilab. He has also received a research grant from Gilead Sciences and is a cofounder of Illuminatio Medical Technology. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is reportedly superior or at least comparable to entecavir (ETV) for the prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B; however, it has distinct long-term renal and bone toxicities. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model (designated as Prediction of Liver cancer using Artificial intelligence-driven model for Network-antiviral Selection for hepatitis B [PLAN-S]) to predict an individualized risk of HCC during ETV or TDF therapy., Methods: This multinational study included 13,970 patients with chronic hepatitis B. The derivation (n = 6,790), Korean validation (n = 4,543), and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts (n = 2,637) were established. Patients were classified as the TDF-superior group when a PLAN-S-predicted HCC risk under ETV treatment is greater than under TDF treatment, and the others were defined as the TDF-nonsuperior group., Results: The PLAN-S model was derived using 8 variables and generated a c-index between 0.67 and 0.78 for each cohort. The TDF-superior group included a higher proportion of male patients and patients with cirrhosis than the TDF-nonsuperior group. In the derivation, Korean validation, and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts, 65.3%, 63.5%, and 76.4% of patients were classified as the TDF-superior group, respectively. In the TDF-superior group of each cohort, TDF was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC than ETV (hazard ratio = 0.60-0.73, all P < 0.05). In the TDF-nonsuperior group, however, there was no significant difference between the 2 drugs (hazard ratio = 1.16-1.29, all P > 0.1)., Discussion: Considering the individual HCC risk predicted by PLAN-S and the potential TDF-related toxicities, TDF and ETV treatment may be recommended for the TDF-superior and TDF-nonsuperior groups, respectively., (Copyright © 2023 by The American College of Gastroenterology.)

Background & Aims: The changes in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) are unreliable to estimate regression of fibrosis during antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. The age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets score (aMAP), as an accurate hepatocellular carcinoma risk score, may reflect the liver fibrosis stage. Here, we aimed to evaluate the performance of aMAP for diagnosing liver fibrosis in CHB patients with or without treatment., Methods: A total of 2053 patients from 2 real-world cohorts and 2 multicentric randomized controlled trials in China were enrolled, among which 2053 CHB patients were included in the cross-sectional analysis, and 889 CHB patients with paired liver biopsies before and after 72 or 104 weeks of treatment were included in the longitudinal analysis., Results: In the cross-sectional analysis, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of aMAP in diagnosing cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were 0.788 and 0.757, which were comparable with or significantly higher than those of the fibrosis index based on 4 factors and the aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio. The stepwise approach using aMAP and LSM further improved performance in detecting cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis with the smallest uncertainty area (29.7% and 46.2%, respectively) and high accuracy (82.3% and 79.8%, respectively). In the longitudinal analysis, we established a novel model (aMAP-LSM model) by calculating aMAP and LSM results before and after treatment, which had satisfactory performance in diagnosing cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis after treatment (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.839 and 0.840, respectively), especially for those with a significant decrease in LSM after treatment (vs LSM alone, 0.828 vs 0.748; P < .001 [cirrhosis]; 0.825 vs 0.750; P < .001 [advanced fibrosis])., Conclusions: The aMAP score is a promising noninvasive tool for diagnosing fibrosis in CHB patients. The aMAP-LSM model could accurately estimate fibrosis stage for treated CHB patients., (Copyright © 2023 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Baveno VII was proposed for non-invasive identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. However, a substantial proportion of patients is classified in the grey zone (i.e., liver stiffness 15-24.9 kPa and/or platelet count <150 × 10 9 /L)., Aims: To evaluate the risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in patients in the grey zone, and to determine the prognostic role of spleen stiffness measurement., Methods: We included prospective cohorts (from Hong Kong, Korea and France) of patients who had undergone transient elastography examination for chronic liver disease. We estimated risk of hepatic decompensation using competing risk regression with hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing events., Results: We identified 2763 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). There were 1243 (44.9%) and 536 (19.4%) patients in the Baveno VII grey zone and high-risk groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of decompensation at 5 years was significantly different among low-risk (0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%]), grey zone 4.2% (95% CI: 3.1%-5.4%) and high-risk groups (11.4% [95% CI: 8.7%-14.6%]). By competing risk analysis, aetiology of liver disease (alcohol-related liver disease), albumin-bilirubin score and alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with decompensation among patients in the grey zone. The combination of Baveno VII and spleen stiffness significantly reduced patients classified into grey zone (12.8% in cACLD patients), while maintaining high discrimination of decompensation in low- and high-risk groups., Conclusions: Patients in grey zone of Baveno VII criteria remain at high risk of hepatic decompensation. Clinical risk factors and spleen stiffness can further stratify the risk in such patients., (© 2023 The Authors. Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Automatic lesion segmentation is important for assisting doctors in the diagnostic process. Recent deep learning approaches heavily rely on large-scale datasets, which are difficult to obtain in many clinical applications. Leveraging external labelled datasets is an effective solution to tackle the problem of insufficient training data. In this paper, we propose a new framework, namely LatenTrans, to utilize existing datasets for boosting the performance of lesion segmentation in extremely low data regimes. LatenTrans translates non-target lesions into target-like lesions and expands the training dataset with target-like data for better performance. Images are first projected to the latent space via aligned style-based generative models, and rich lesion semantics are encoded using the latent codes. A novel consistency-aware latent code manipulation module is proposed to enable high-quality local style transfer from non-target lesions to target-like lesions while preserving other parts. Moreover, we propose a new metric, Normalized Latent Distance, to solve the question of how to select an adequate one from various existing datasets for knowledge transfer. Extensive experiments are conducted on segmenting lung and brain lesions, and the experimental results demonstrate that our proposed LatenTrans is superior to existing methods for cross-disease lesion segmentation.

Background: It is uncertain whether people with HIV infection have a higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than the general population., Aims: To compare the incidence of HCC between people infected with HBV and/or HCV with and without HIV METHODS: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study, involving people with HBV and/or HCV infection from 2001 to 2018. The primary endpoint was incidence of HCC; secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of HIV for the primary and secondary endpoints., Results: We identified 1374 people infected with HIV and 39,908 people without HIV with HBV and/or HCV infection. Among those with HIV, 654 (47.6%) had HBV, 649 (47.2%) HCV and 71 (5.2%) HBV-HCV-co-infection; they were younger, and had a higher prevalence of HCV and a lower prevalence of cirrhosis. The incidence rate estimates of HCC were, respectively, 1.5 (95% CI: 0.8-2.5) and 7.6 (95% CI 7.3-8.0) per 1000 person-years for those with and without HIV infection. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models, among people with HBV, HIV was associated with lower risk of HCC (adjusted HR: 0.376, 95% CI: 0.201-0.704, p = 0.01) and death (adjusted HR: 0.692, 95% CI: 0.552-0.867, p = 0.007). Risks of HCC were similar for HCV and HBV-HCV co-infection for people with and without HIV., Conclusions: Among individuals with HBV infection, the Incidence of HCC was lower in those with HIV. For HCV infection, incidence of HCC was similar between those with and without HIV., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: We examined whether changing clinical characteristics and presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) impact the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores., Methods: Adult patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on ≥6 months of entecavir/tenofovir treatment between January 2005 and March 2020 were identified using a territory-wide electronic database in Hong Kong. DM was defined by antidiabetic agents, hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%, fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L, and/or diagnosis codes. PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B), and aMAP scores were assessed by area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and compared with CAMD and REAL-B scores with DM as a component., Results: Of 48,706 patients, 2792, 11,563, 15,471, and 18,880 started entecavir/tenofovir treatment between 2005-2008, 2009-2012, 2013-2016, and 2017-2020, respectively; DM prevalence rose from 15.5% in 2005-2008 to 24.3% in 2017-2020. AUROCs were comparable across the 4 periods in the 5 HCC risk scores (AUROCs ranged between 0.75 and 0.81). At a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 1512 non-diabetic (4.0%) and 645 (6.2%) diabetic patients developed HCC. AUROCs of all 5 scores were lower in diabetic patients than in non-diabetic patients (AUROCs ranged between 0.67-0.71 vs 0.78-0.82; all P < .001). REAL-B score achieved an AUROC of 0.71 in diabetic and 0.82 in non-diabetic patients. Both diabetic and non-diabetic patients in the low-risk group by REAL-B score had a low HCC incidence below the threshold of cost-effective HCC surveillance, ie, 0.2% annually., Conclusions: REAL-B score is accurate and preferred in entecavir/tenofovir-treated CHB patients because of the increasing prevalence of DM., (Copyright © 2023 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Baveno VII criteria for predicting varices needing treatment (VNT) have not been tested in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) population. We evaluated Baveno VII consensus for VNT in HCC patients of different stages according to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages undergoing curative hepatectomy., Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with HCC. Patients underwent transient elastography examination before HCC treatment and received at least one upper endoscopic examination afterwards. Patients were prospectively followed for clinical events including VNT., Results: Six hundred and seventy-three patients (83.1% male, median age 62 years) with HCC of BCLC stage 0 (10%), A (57%), B (17%) and C (15%) were recruited and followed for 47 months. The median (range) LSM was 10.5 (6.9-20.4) kPa; 74% had LSM ≤ 20 kPa and 58% had platelet count ≥150 × 10/L, respectively. VNT occurred in 51 (7.6%) patients. In patients who fulfilled Baveno VII criteria, that is, LSM ≤ 20 kPa and platelet count above 150 × 10/L, only 11 (1.6%) patients had VNT. In all BCLC stages of HCC, the proportion of patients with VNT was below 5%, which support the validity and applicability of Baveno VII criteria in all BCLC stages of HCC., Conclusions: The Baveno VII criteria are valid and applicable in HCC patients undergoing curative hepatectomy for selecting patients to undergo screening endoscopy for VNT. The validity was consistent across different BCLC stages of HCC., (© 2023 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.)

Aims: We aimed to examine the impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on the clinical outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D)., Methods: Between 2013 and 2014, 1,734 patients with T2D underwent transient elastography (TE) to assess liver status indicated by controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM). Liver steatosis was defined by CAP ≥ 248 dB/m and advanced liver fibrosis by LSM ≥ 10 kPa. In 2019, we assessed their clinical outcomes including hospitalizations and mortality., Results: In this prospective cohort [56% men, mean (±standard deviation) age:60.8±11.5 years; glycated hemoglobin (HbA 1c )7.8±1.6 %], 798 patients had liver steatosis, 296 patients had advanced liver fibrosis and 640 patients had normal liver at baseline. T2D with advanced liver fibrosis had higher body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, fasting plasma glucose, HbA 1c , blood pressure and lipid profiles than their counterparts with NAFLD or normal liver (all p < 0.05). After a median follow-up of 6.07 (interquartile range:5.84 to 6.30) years, there were 4,403 incident hospitalizations, 32,119 days of hospital stay, and 171 deaths. Using Cox regression analysis, advanced liver fibrosis was associated with increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] HR:3.07[1.08-8.68], p=0.035) and hospitalizations (HR:1.39[1.14-1.70], p=0.001) while liver steatosis was associated with reduced mortality (HR:0.60[0.41-0.87], p=0.007) compared to their counterparts with normal liver after adjustment for potential confounders., Conclusions: T2D comorbid with liver steatosis and advanced liver fibrosis are distinct clinical entities with differences in outcomes. Advanced liver fibrosis is an important predictor for worse outcomes including heart failure and hospitalizations in people with T2D., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background and Objectives: Ischemic stroke despite a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) is increasingly common and portends a high risk of subsequent ischemic stroke. The efficacy and safety of antithrombotic regimens after the condition are unclear. We aimed to compare the outcomes of patients with ischemic stroke despite DOACs with and without an alternative antithrombotic regimen and determine the risk factors of recurrent ischemic stroke while on anticoagulation., Methods: In a population-based, propensity score-weighted, retrospective cohort study, we compared the clinical outcomes of DOAC-to-warfarin switch, DOAC-to-DOAC switch (DOAC switch ), or addition of antiplatelet agents, with those of unchanged DOAC regimen (DOAC same ) among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who developed the first ischemic stroke despite a DOAC from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020, in Hong Kong. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke. Secondary outcomes were intracranial hemorrhage, acute coronary syndrome, and death. We performed competing risk regression analyses to compare the clinical endpoints and determined the predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke in an unweighted multivariable logistic regression model., Results: During the 6-year study period, among 45,946 patients with AF on a DOAC as stroke prophylaxis, 2,908 patients developed ischemic stroke despite a DOAC. A total of 2,337 patients with NVAF were included in the final analyses. Compared with DOAC same , warfarin (aHR 1.96, 95% CI 1.27-3.02, p = 0.002) and DOAC switch (aHR 1.62, 95% CI 1.25-2.11, p < 0.001) were associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. In the DOAC same group, adjunctive antiplatelet agent was not associated with a reduced risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. Diabetes mellitus, concurrent cytochrome P450/P-glycoprotein (CYP/P-gp) modulators, and large artery atherosclerotic disease (LAD) were predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke., Discussion: In patients with NVAF with ischemic stroke despite a DOAC, the increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke with switching to warfarin called for caution against such practice, while the increased ischemic stroke with DOAC-to-DOAC switch demands further studies. Adjunctive antiplatelet agent did not seem to reduce ischemic stroke relapse. Because diabetes mellitus, the use of CYP/P-gp modulators, and LAD were predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke, further investigations should evaluate whether strict glycemic control, DOAC level monitoring, and routine screening for carotid and intracranial atherosclerosis may reduce ischemic stroke recurrence in these patients., Classification of Evidence: This study provides Class II evidence that in patients with NVAF experiencing an ischemic stroke while being treated with a DOAC, continuing treatment with that DOAC is more effective at preventing recurrent ischemic stroke than switching to a different DOAC or to warfarin., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.)

Background & Aims: The latest Baveno VII consensus has provided guidance for identifying patients who have truly recompensated from those with hepatic decompensation. This study aimed to evaluate patients' transplant-free survival in three different stages of cirrhosis., Methods: All patients with chronic HBV infection and liver cirrhosis treated with oral nucleos(t)ide analogues from March 2006 to December 2022 were identified from a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. Patients with follow-up duration of <1 year were excluded. Participants were classified into three mutually exclusive groups: (1) no decompensated events ( i.e. compensated group); (2) decompensated events occurred ( i.e. decompensated group); or (3) decompensated events occurred followed by recompensation according to Baveno VII criteria ( i.e. recompensated group). A time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model was adopted for evaluation. The follow-up period was 5 years., Results: A total of 4,701 patients with cirrhosis and HBV who were treated with entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) were identified. During a median follow-up of 5 years (interquartile range 3.7, 5 years), 3,327 (70.8%), 1,347 (29.2%), and 265 (5.6%) patients had compensated, decompensated, and recompensated cirrhosis, respectively, at least once before the end of the study. In the time-dependent multivariable model, the recompensated group had similar transplant-free survival compared with the compensated group (adjusted hazard ratio 1.16; 95% CI 0.72-1.86; p  = 0.536). The 5-year transplant-free survival rate was 89.3% for the compensated group, whereas it was 76.0% for the recompensated group, reflecting a minimal difference between the two groups., Conclusions: The clinical significance of recompensation of cirrhosis in improving patient outcomes for individuals with CHB infection was highlighted in this study. Early identification and treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues might promote hepatic recompensation and thus reduce mortality in patients with CHB., Impact and Implications: The latest Baveno VII consensus introduces the new concept of hepatic recompensation, which refers to the reversal of the structural and functional changes of cirrhosis after removal, cure, or suppression of the aetiology of cirrhosis. It is essential to investigate the transplant-free survival rates of patients who are able to achieve hepatic recompensation, as this has significant implications for the medical resources required to manage liver failure and transplantation. This study features the clinical significance of hepatic recompensation by comparing patient outcomes of those who achieve it to those who do not. The early identification and use of antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues is a pivotal strategy to promote hepatic recompensation, which has the potential to significantly reduce mortality rates in patients with chronic HBV infection and ultimately aid in the elimination of hepatitis., Competing Interests: GLHW has served as an advisory committee member for Gilead Sciences and Janssen. She has also served as a speaker for Abbvie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Echosens, Furui, Gilead, and Janssen. VWSW has served as an advisory committee member for 3V-BIO, AbbVie, Allergan, Echosens, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Perspectum Diagnostics, Pfizer, and Terns; and a speaker for Bristol-Myers Squibb, Echosens, Gilead Sciences, and Merck. He has also received a research grant from Gilead Sciences. HLYC is an advisor for Aligos, Aptorum, Arbutus, Janssen, Gilead, GSK, Roche, Vaccitech, Vir Biotechnology, and Viron Therapeutics; and a speaker for Gilead, Roche, and Viatris. TCFY has served as an advisory committee member and a speaker for Gilead Sciences. Please refer to the accompanying ICMJE disclosure forms for further details., (© 2023 The Author(s).)

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a global public health problem. NAFLD is bidirectionally correlated with metabolic syndrome, which includes obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia as major components. The presence of metabolic syndrome is associated with a higher prevalence of NAFLD, and vice versa. Also, the presence of metabolic syndrome in patients with NAFLD has been linked to a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases, liver-related complications, extrahepatic malignancies, and mortality, and possibly vice versa. Multidisciplinary care pathways including lifestyle modifications, control of metabolic risk, and potentially beneficial treatments are important to improve the clinical outcomes of patients with NAFLD., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: We aimed to determine the trends in risk factor control and treatment among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in 2000-2020., Methods: We conducted a territory-wide cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD and T2D diagnosed between 1 January 2000 and 31 July 2021 in Hong Kong. T2D was defined by use of any anti-diabetic agents, laboratory tests and/or diagnosis codes., Results: This study included 16,084 patients with NAFLD and T2D (mean age, 54.8 ± 12.0 years; 7124 male [44.3%]). The percentage of patients achieving individualised haemoglobin A 1c (HbA 1c ) targets increased from 44.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42.9-46.1) to 64.8% (95% CI, 64.1-65.5), and percentage of patients achieving individualised low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) targets increased from 23.3% (95% CI, 21.9-24.7) to 54.3% (95% CI, 53.5-55.1) from 2000-2005 to 2016-2020, whereas percentage of patients achieving blood pressure control (<140/90 mm Hg) remained static at 53.1-57.2%. Combination therapy for diabetes increased, especially among those with poor glycaemic control, but there was no increase in combination therapy for hypertension. Fewer cirrhotic patients achieved blood pressure control and individualised LDL-C targets, but they were more likely to achieve individualised HbA 1c targets than non-cirrhotics. Metformin and statins were underused in cirrhotic patients. Younger patients (18-44 years) were less likely to achieve individualised HbA 1c targets than middle-aged (45-64 years) and older ones (≥65 years)., Conclusions: From 2000 to 2020, glycaemic and lipid control improved significantly, whereas blood pressure control remained static among patients with NAFLD and T2D., (© 2023 The Authors. Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Baveno VII criteria are used in patients with liver cirrhosis to predict high-risk varices in patients with liver cirrhosis. Yet its use in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been validated. HCC alone is accompanied with a higher variceal bleeding risk due to its association with liver cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis. The use of systemic therapy in advanced HCC has been thought to further augment this risk. Upper endoscopy is commonly used to evaluate for the presence of varices before initiation of treatment with systemic therapy. Yet it is associated with procedural risks, waiting time and limited availability in some localities which may delay the commencement of systemic therapy. Our study successfully validated the Baveno VI criteria with a 3.5% varices needing treatment (VNT) missed rate, also with acceptable <5% VNT missed rates when considering alternative liver stiffness (LSM) and platelet cut-offs. The Baveno VII clinically significant portal hypertension rule-out criteria (LSM < 15 kPa and platelet >150 × 10 9 /L) also revealed a low frequency (2%) of hepatic events, whilst the rule-in criteria (LSM > 25 kPa) was predictive of a higher proportion of hepatic events (14%). Therefore, our study has successfully validated the Baveno VII criteria as a non-invasive stratification of the risk of variceal bleeding and hepatic decompensation in the HCC population.

Importance: Older patients living in nursing homes are at very high risk of mortality after getting COVID-19., Objective: To evaluate outcomes following oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19 among nonhospitalized older patients living in nursing homes., Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a territory-wide, retrospective cohort study conducted between February 16 and March 31, 2022, with the last follow-up date on April 25, 2022. Participants were patients with COVID-19 living in nursing homes in Hong Kong. Data analysis was performed from May to June 2022., Exposures: Molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, or no oral antiviral treatment., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was hospitalization for COVID-19, and the secondary outcome was risk of inpatient disease progression (ie, admission to intensive care unit, use of invasive mechanical ventilation, and/or death)., Results: Of 14 617 patients (mean [SD] age, 84.8 [10.2] years; 8222 women [56.2%]), 8939 (61.2%) did not use oral antivirals, 5195 (35.5%) used molnupiravir, and 483 (3.3%) used nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. Compared with patients who did not use oral antivirals, those who used molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were more likely to be female and less likely to have comorbid illnesses and hospitalization in the past year. At a median (IQR) follow-up of 30 (30-30) days, 6223 patients (42.6%) were hospitalized and 2307 patients (15.8%) experienced inpatient disease progression. After propensity score weighting, both molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization (molnupiravir, weighted hazard ratio [wHR], 0.46; 95% CI, 0.37-0.57; P < .001; nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, wHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.32-0.65; P < .001) and inpatient disease progression (molnupiravir, wHR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.23-0.51; P < .001; nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, wHR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.06-0.44; P < .001). Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir was comparable to molnupiravir in achieving better clinical outcomes (hospitalization, wHR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.75-1.33; P = .99; inpatient disease progression, wHR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study, the use of oral antivirals to treat COVID-19 was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization and inpatient disease progression among patients living in nursing homes. The findings of this study of nursing home residents could be reasonably extrapolated to other frail older patients living in the community.

NAFLD has become a major public health problem for more than 2 decades with a growing prevalence in parallel with the epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The disease burden of NAFLD differs across geographical regions and ethnicities. Variations in prevalence of metabolic diseases, extent of urban-rural divide, dietary habits, lifestyles, and the prevalence of NAFLD risk and protective alleles can contribute to such differences. The rise in NAFLD has led to a remarkable increase in the number of cases of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic decompensation, and liver-related mortality related to NAFLD. Moreover, NAFLD is associated with multiple extrahepatic manifestations. Most of them are risk factors for the progression of liver fibrosis and thus worsen the prognosis of NAFLD. All these comorbidities and complications affect the quality of life in subjects with NAFLD. Given the huge and growing size of the population with NAFLD, it is expected that patients, healthcare systems, and the economy will suffer from the ongoing burden related to NAFLD. In this review, we examine the disease burden of NAFLD across geographical areas and ethnicities, together with the distribution of some well-known genetic variants for NAFLD. We also describe some special populations including patients with T2D, lean patients, the pediatric population, and patients with concomitant liver diseases. We discuss extrahepatic outcomes, patient-reported outcomes, and economic burden related to NAFLD., (Copyright © 2023 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)