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In this study, starch was modified with different amounts of boric acid, and the degree of substitution of the synthesized compounds at different temperatures and times was determined by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) and titration methods. The degrees of substitution in both methods showed similar tendency. Optimum conditions were determined, and thermoplastic starch (TPS) and boric acid (B) films were prepared by casting method using glycerol as plasticizer. The morphological properties of the films were studied by scanning electron microscope-energy dispersive spectrometry (SEM-EDS). According to the FTIR results, it was observed that the B--O and B--O--C stretching vibrations increased when the amount of boric acid increased. The tensile strength, water barrier (swelling capacity, solubility, and water vapor permeability), and optical properties of samples were investigated. The swelling capacity, solubility, and water vapor permeability of the films decreased with the addition of 0.5% boric acid to the starch, but the highest tensile strength was achieved. The tensile strength for TPSB0.5% increased compared to control group TPS. In addition, the film showed the highest transparency. Thermoplastic film containing 0.5% boric acid can be used as a packaging material due to its improved mechanical and water barrier. Highlights * The thermoplastic starch and boric acid composite were successfully produced. * The presence of boric acid was confirmed by energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS). * The degree of substitution was determined by two different methods. * Transparency increased with the addition of boric acid. * Tensile strength improved with boric acid content. KEYWORDS barrier, boric acid, degree of substitution, tensile strength, thermoplastic starch, 1 | INTRODUCTION With the population in the world increases at an alarming rate, there will be an increase in demand for food supply and the subsequent regular use of [...]

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Abstract Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a liver pathology. NAFLD’s prevalence is increasing in the world and because of the increase non-invasive methods are gaining importance in diagnosis. The Fibrosis 4 (FIB-4) score is one of the most commonly used non-invasive scoring methods for diagnosing NAFLD today. Acute pancreatitis is a disease with inflammation and high morbidity. There are studies indicating that acute pancreatitis progresses more severely in patients with NAFLD. In our study, it was aimed to define the possible relationship between the FIB-4 score and the severity of acute pancreatitis, which has not been investigated before and contribute to the literature. Methods Our study was conducted by retrospectively scanning 124 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis between 2018 and 2020. The patients were compared with the presence of NAFLD and the FIB-4 score results in those with NAFLD. Results The 48th-hour Ranson score was found to be statistically significantly higher in patients with NAFLD compared to those without NAFLD. In patients with NAFLD, the total billurbin, direct billurbin, AST, ALT, ALP, GGT, and Ranson scores were found to be statistically significantly higher in those with FIB-4 score ≥ 2.67. Conclusıon As liver fibrosis increases in patients with NAFLD, it is suggested that liver damage accompanying acute pancreatitis increases, and the prognosis of acute pancreatitis worsens. There is a need for further studies to be conducted while centering more on this subject, which has not been investigated before in the literature.

Since the authorization of the Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, real-world evidence has indicated its effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 cases. However, increased cases of mRNA vaccine-associated myocarditis/pericarditis have been reported, predominantly in young adults and adolescents. The Food and Drug Administration conducted a benefit-risk assessment to inform the review of the Biologics License Application for use of the Moderna vaccine among individuals ages 18 and older. We modeled the benefit-risk per million individuals who receive two complete doses of the vaccine. Benefit endpoints were vaccine-preventable COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths. The risk endpoints were vaccine-related myocarditis/pericarditis cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. The analysis was conducted on the age-stratified male population due to data signals and previous work showing males to be the main risk group. We constructed six scenarios to evaluate the impact of uncertainty associated with pandemic dynamics, vaccine effectiveness (VE) against novel variants, and rates of vaccine-associated myocarditis/pericarditis cases on the model results. For our most likely scenario, we assumed the US COVID-19 incidence was for the week of December 25, 2021, with a VE of 30% against cases and 72% against hospitalization with the Omicron-dominant strain. Our source for estimating vaccine-attributable myocarditis/pericarditis rates was FDA’s CBER Biologics Effectiveness and Safety (BEST) System databases. Overall, our results supported the conclusion that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh its risks. Remarkably, we predicted vaccinating one million 18–25 year-old males would prevent 82,484 cases, 4,766 hospitalizations, 1,144 ICU admissions, and 51 deaths due to COVID-19, comparing to 128 vaccine-attributable myocarditis/pericarditis cases, 110 hospitalizations, zero ICU admissions, and zero deaths. Uncertainties in the pandemic trajectory, effectiveness of vaccine against novel variants, and vaccine-attributable myocarditis/pericarditis rate are important limitations of our analysis. Also, the model does not evaluate potential long-term adverse effects due to either COVID-19 or vaccine-attributable myocarditis/pericarditis.

A key unmet need in the management of hemophilia A (HA) is the lack of clinically validated markers that are associated with the development of neutralizing antibodies to Factor VIII (FVIII) (commonly referred to as inhibitors). This study aimed to identify relevant biomarkers for FVIII inhibition using Machine Learning (ML) and Explainable AI (XAI) using the My Life Our Future (MLOF) research repository. The dataset includes biologically relevant variables such as age, race, sex, ethnicity, and the variants in the F8 gene. In addition, we previously carried out Human Leukocyte Antigen Class II (HLA-II) typing on samples obtained from the MLOF repository. Using this information, we derived other patient-specific biologically and genetically important variables. These included identifying the number of foreign FVIII derived peptides, based on the alignment of the endogenous FVIII and infused drug sequences, and the foreign-peptide HLA-II molecule binding affinity calculated using NetMHCIIpan. The data were processed and trained with multiple ML classification models to identify the top performing models. The top performing model was then chosen to apply XAI via SHAP, (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to identify the variables critical for the prediction of FVIII inhibitor development in a hemophilia A patient. Using XAI we provide a robust and ranked identification of variables that could be predictive for developing inhibitors to FVIII drugs in hemophilia A patients. These variables could be validated as biomarkers and used in making clinical decisions and during drug development. The top five variables for predicting inhibitor development based on SHAP values are: (i) the baseline activity of the FVIII protein, (ii) mean affinity of all foreign peptides for HLA DRB 3, 4, & 5 alleles, (iii) mean affinity of all foreign peptides for HLA DRB1 alleles), (iv) the minimum affinity among all foreign peptides for HLA DRB1 alleles, and (v) F8 mutation type.

Cancer vaccines are an important component of the cancer immunotherapy toolkit enhancing immune response to malignant cells by activating CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Multiple successful clinical applications of cancer vaccines have shown good safety and efficacy. Despite the notable progress, significant challenges remain in obtaining consistent immune responses across heterogeneous patient populations, as well as various cancers. We present a mechanistic mathematical model describing key interactions of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine with an individual patient's immune system. Specifically, the model considers the vaccine concentration of tumor-specific antigen peptides and adjuvant, the patient's major histocompatibility complexes I and II copy numbers, tumor size, T cells, and antigen presenting cells. We parametrized the model using patient-specific data from a clinical study in which individualized cancer vaccines were used to treat six melanoma patients. Model simulations predicted both immune responses, represented by T cell counts, to the vaccine as well as clinical outcome (determined as change of tumor size). This model, although complex, can be used to describe, simulate, and predict the behavior of the human immune system to a personalized cancer vaccine.

Drug resistance is a significant obstacle to effective cancer treatment. To gain insights into how drug resistance develops, we adopted a concept called fitness landscape and employed a phenotype-structured population model by fitting to a set of experimental data on a drug used for ovarian cancer, olaparib. Our modeling approach allowed us to understand how a drug affects the fitness landscape and track the evolution of a population of cancer cells structured with a spectrum of drug resistance. We also incorporated pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling to identify the optimal dosages of the drug that could lead to long-term tumor reduction. We derived a formula that indicates that maximizing variation in plasma drug concentration over a dosing interval could be important in reducing drug resistance. Our findings suggest that it may be possible to achieve better treatment outcomes with a drug dose lower than the levels recommended by the drug label. Acknowledging the current limitations of our work, we believe that our approach, which combines modeling of both PK and drug resistance evolution, could contribute to a new direction for better designing drug treatment regimens to improve cancer treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Immune responses to therapeutic proteins and peptides can adversely affect their safety and efficacy; consequently, immunogenicity risk-assessments are part of the development, licensure and clinical use of these products. In most cases the development of anti-drug antibodies is mediated by T cells which requires antigen presentation by Major Histocompatibility Complex Class II (MHCII) molecules (also called Human Leucocyte Antigen, HLA in humans). Immune responses to many protein therapeutics are thus HLA-restricted and it is important that the distribution of HLA variants used in the immunogenicity assessments provides adequate coverage of the target population. Due to biases inherent to the collection of samples in a blood bank or donor pool, simple random sampling will not achieve a truly representative sample of the population of interest. To help select a donor cohort we introduce SampPick, an implementation of simulated annealing which optimizes cohort selection to closely match the frequency distribution of a target population or subpopulation. With inputs of a target background frequency distribution for a population and a set of available, HLA-typed donors, the algorithm will iteratively create a cohort of donors of a user selected size that will closely match the target population rather than a random sample. In addition to optimizing the HLA types of donor cohorts, the software presented can be used to optimize donor cohorts for any other biallelic or monoallelic trait.

Cell division, endocytosis, and viral budding would not function without the localization and assembly of protein complexes on membranes. What is poorly appreciated, however, is that by localizing to membranes, proteins search in a reduced space that effectively drives up concentration. Here we derive an accurate and practical analytical theory to quantify the significance of this dimensionality reduction in regulating protein assembly on membranes. We define a simple metric, an effective equilibrium constant, that allows for quantitative comparison of protein-protein interactions with and without membrane present. To test the importance of membrane localization for driving protein assembly, we collected the protein-protein and protein-lipid affinities, protein and lipid concentrations, and volume-to-surface-area ratios for 46 interactions between 37 membrane-targeting proteins in human and yeast cells. We find that many of the protein-protein interactions between pairs of proteins involved in clathrin-mediated endocytosis in human and yeast cells can experience enormous increases in effective protein-protein affinity (10-1000 fold) due to membrane localization. Localization of binding partners thus triggers robust protein complexation, suggesting that it can play an important role in controlling the timing of endocytic protein coat formation. Our analysis shows that several other proteins involved in membrane remodeling at various organelles have similar potential to exploit localization. The theory highlights the master role of phosphoinositide lipid concentration, the volume-to-surface-area ratio, and the ratio of 3D to 2D equilibrium constants in triggering (or preventing) constitutive assembly on membranes. Our simple model provides a novel quantitative framework for interpreting or designing in vitro experiments of protein complexation influenced by membrane binding.

Localization of proteins to a membrane is an essential step in a broad range of biological processes such as signaling, virion formation, and clathrin-mediated endocytosis. The strength and specificity of proteins binding to a membrane depend on the lipid composition. Single-particle reaction-diffusion methods offer a powerful tool for capturing lipid-specific binding to membrane surfaces by treating lipids explicitly as individual diffusible binding sites. However, modeling lipid particle populations is expensive. Here, we present an algorithm for reversible binding of proteins to continuum surfaces with implicit lipids, providing dramatic speed-ups to many body simulations. Our algorithm can be readily integrated into most reaction-diffusion software packages. We characterize changes to kinetics that emerge from explicit vs implicit lipids as well as surface adsorption models, showing excellent agreement between our method and the full explicit lipid model. Compared to models of surface adsorption, which couple together binding affinity and lipid concentration, our implicit lipid model decouples them to provide more flexibility for controlling surface binding properties and lipid inhomogeneity, thus reproducing binding kinetics and equilibria. Crucially, we demonstrate our method's application to membranes of arbitrary curvature and topology, modeled via a subdivision limit surface, again showing excellent agreement with explicit lipid simulations. Unlike adsorption models, our method retains the ability to bind lipids after proteins are localized to the surface (through, e.g., a protein-protein interaction), which can greatly increase the stability of multiprotein complexes on the surface. Our method will enable efficient cell-scale simulations involving proteins localizing to realistic membrane models, which is a critical step for predictive modeling and quantification of in vitro and in vivo dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]