1. Tropical eastern Pacific cooling trend reinforced by human activity
- Author
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Eui-Seok Chung, Seong-Joong Kim, Sang-Ki Lee, Kyung-Ja Ha, Sang-Wook Yeh, Yong Sun Kim, Sang-Yoon Jun, Joo-Hong Kim, and Dongmin Kim
- Subjects
Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Meteorology. Climatology ,QC851-999 - Abstract
Abstract It remains unresolved whether the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) trend pattern during the satellite era, featuring a distinct warming in the northwest/southwest Pacific but cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific, is driven by either external forcing or internal variability. Here, by conducting a comprehensive analysis of observations and a series of climate model simulations for the historical period, we show that a combination of internal variability and human activity may have shaped the observed La Niña-like SST trend pattern. As in observations, SSTs in each model ensemble member show a distinct multi-decadal swing between El Niño-like and La Niña-like trend patterns due to internal variability. The ensemble-mean trends for some models are, however, found to exhibit an enhanced zonal SST gradient along the equatorial Pacific over periods such as 1979–2010, suggesting a role of external forcing. In line with this hypothesis, single-forcing large ensemble model simulations show that human-induced stratospheric ozone depletion and/or aerosol changes have acted to enhance the zonal SST gradient via strengthening of Pacific trade winds, although the effect is model dependent. Our finding suggests that the La Niña-like SST trend is unlikely to persist under sustained global warming because both the ozone and aerosol impacts will eventually weaken.
- Published
- 2024
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