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Abstract Alleviating water scarcity is at the core of Sustainable Development Goal 6. Yet the timing of water scarcity in its onset and possible relief in different regions of the world due to climate change and changing human population dynamics remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the timing of the first emergence of water scarcity (FirstWS) and disappearance of water scarcity (EndWS), by using ensembles of simulations with six Global Hydrological Models under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP6.0) combined with two shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP2, SSP3) for 1901–2090. Historically (1901–2020), FirstWS occurred predominantly in Asia (e.g., China and India) and Africa (e.g., East Africa); the peak time of emerging water scarcity began around the 1980s. Under all the four future RCPs-SSPs scenarios (2021–2090), FirstWS will likely occur mainly in some regions of Africa, for which the newly added area is double that in Asia. On the other hand, EndWS will mostly occur in China after 2050, primarily due to the projected declining population. We, therefore, call for specific attention and effort to adapt to the looming water scarcity in Africa.

Abstract Groundwater in north India remains a vital food and water security resource for more than one billion people. Both summer monsoon drying, and winter warming pose considerable challenges for rapidly declining groundwater. However, their impacts on irrigation water demands and groundwater storage under the observed and projected future climate remain unexplored. Using in situ observations, satellite data, and a hydrological model that considers the role of irrigation and groundwater pumping, we show that summer monsoon drying and winter warming accelerate groundwater depletion in north India during the observed climate, which will continue in the projected future climate. Summer monsoon precipitation has significantly (P‐value = 0.04) declined (∼8%) while winters have become warmer in north India during 1951–2021. Both satellite (GRACE/GRACE‐FO) and hydrological model‐based estimates show a rapid groundwater depletion (∼1.5 cm/year) in north India with a net loss of 450 km3 of groundwater during 2002–2021. The summer monsoon drying followed by winter warming cause a substantial reduction in groundwater storage due to reduced groundwater recharge and enhanced pumping to meet irrigation demands. Summer monsoon drying and winter warming will continue to affect groundwater storage in north India in the future. For instance, summer monsoon drying (10%–15% deficit for near‐far periods) followed by substantial winter warming (1–4°C) in the future will further accelerate groundwater depletion by increasing (6%–20%) irrigation water demands and reducing groundwater recharge (6%–12%). Groundwater sustainability measures including reducing groundwater abstraction and enhancing the groundwater recharge during the summer monsoon seasons are needed to ensure future agricultural production.

‘Water circles’ are presented as flexible water cycle diagrams aggregating the flows through a system for a specific region and time period, categorized by flow type and organized by magnitude. Water circles for an entire system and separate storage components can be interpreted as water cycle speedometers and can help compare and communicate different climate and human impacts on different regions, time periods, and storage components. Water circles can facilitate comparisons between hydrological models and other methods for deriving water balances.

There is currently a large amount of energy being wasted on pressure reduction valves across the world. This paper argues that this energy could be harnessed with isothermal depressurization by applying a hydraulic isothermal pressure reduction turbine. The hydraulic isothermal pressure reduction turbine consists of two tanks filled with water or an organic liquid. The pressurized gas enters the tank, displacing the liquid, which flows through a turbine, generating electricity. The proposed system has efficiencies surrounding 90%, which is higher than usual pressure reduction turbines. The estimated cost for the proposed technology is 1300 USD/kW. The proposed technology could be feasible to harness the potential for electricity generation wasted in pressure reduction valves. The need for this technology will increase significantly in a future hydrogen-based economy, given the low volumetric density of hydrogen and the significant energy losses when compressing and decompressing hydrogen.

Significant regional disparities exist in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and how much we can buy time depending on climate scenarios. Specific regions pass this timing by the middle of 21st century even with stringent mitigation.

This work identifies the world’s most vulnerable basins to social and ecological impacts from freshwater stress and storage loss: a set of 168 hotspot basins for global prioritization that encompass 1.5 billion people, 17% of global food crops, 13% of global GDP, and hundreds of significant wetlands.

Abstract Climate change was projected to have negative effects on water availability and consequently a serious constraint to food production in many areas of the world. However, such effects have not been well understood, particularly over rainfed croplands, partly because of the poor representation of green water in associated assessments. In this study, we develop an integrated agricultural water scarcity index (WSIag) that incorporates blue and green water components to examine the agricultural water scarcity in the baseline (1981–2005) and future (2026–2050) periods under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios. Results show that ∼3.8 million km2 (∼39% of total) croplands experienced water scarcity in the baseline period and it would expand by more than 3% in the future. Under the two scenarios, WSIag projections are similar overall and are higher than that under the baseline in 83%–84% of global total croplands. Differences are found between the scenarios in Amazonia, Southern Africa, and South Asia. The increases in future WSIag are dominated by the decreased water availability in ∼60% of total croplands and ∼24% of which is dominated by the increased crop water requirement. Changes in green water availability have a significant contribution to changes in WSIag in 16% of global croplands, mostly in arid/semiarid regions (e.g., the South edge of the Sahel, Southern Africa, Northeast China, and Central America). This implies the important role of green water management for agriculture in these regions. The integrated assessment can help develop effective strategies for agricultural water management under climate change.

The authors here model how water stress would be affected either by biomass plantations combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in a strong climate mitigation scenario (1.5 °C warming in 2100) or by climate impacts in a strong climate change scenario (3 °C warming in 2100).

There is a significant energy transition in progress globally. This is mainly driven by the insertion of variable sources of energy, such as wind and solar power. To guarantee that the supply of energy meets its demand, energy storage technologies will play an important role in integrating these intermittent energy sources. Daily energy storage can be provided by batteries. However, there is still no technology that can provide weekly, monthly and seasonal energy storage services where pumped hydro storage is not a viable solution. Herein, we introduce an innovative energy storage proposal based on isothermal air compression/decompression and storage of the compressed air in the deep sea. Isothermal deep ocean compressed air energy storage (IDO-CAES) is estimated to cost from 1500 to 3000 USD/kW for installed capacity and 1 to 10 USD/kWh for energy storage. IDO-CAES should complement batteries, providing weekly, monthly and seasonal energy storage cycles in future sustainable energy grids, particularly in coastal areas, islands and offshore and floating wind power plants, as well as deep-sea mining activities.

Many land-based ecosystems are dependent on groundwater and could be threatened by human groundwater abstraction. One key challenge for the description of associated impacts is the initial localisation of groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs). This usually requires a mixture of extensive site-specific data collection and the use of geospatial datasets and remote sensing techniques. To date, no study has succeeded in identifying different types of GDEs in parallel worldwide. The main objective of this work is to perform a global screening analysis to identify GDE potentials rather than GDE locations. In addition, potential risks to GDEs from groundwater abstraction shall be identified. We defined nine key indicators that capture GDE potentials and associated risks on a global grid of 0.5° spatial resolution. Groundwater-dependent streams, wetlands and vegetation were covered, and a GDE index was formulated incorporating the following three aspects: the extent of groundwater use per GDE type, GDE diversity and GDE presence by land cover. The results show that GDE potentials are widely distributed across the globe, but with different distribution patterns depending on the type of ecosystem. The highest overall potential for GDEs is found in tropical regions, followed by arid and temperate climates. The GDE potentials were validated against regional studies, which showed a trend of increasing matching characteristics towards higher GDE potentials, but also inconsistencies upon closer analysis. Thus, the results can be used as first-order estimates only, which would need to be explored in the context of more site-specific analyses. Identified risks to GDEs from groundwater abstraction are more geographically limited and concentrated in the US and Mexico, the Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb, as well as Central, South and East Asia. The derived findings on GDEs and associated risks can be useful for prioritising future research and can be integrated into sustainability-related tools such as the water footprint.

A sufficient freshwater supply is vital for humans, ecosystems, and economies, but anticipated climate and socio-economic change are expected to substantially alter water availability. Across Europe, about two-third of the abstracted freshwater comes from rivers and streams. Various hydrological studies address the resulting need for projections on changes in river discharge. However, those assessments rarely specifically account for the impact of various water withdrawal scenarios during low flow periods. We present here a novel, high-resolution hydrological modeling experiment using pseudo-global warming climate data to investigate the effects of changing water withdrawals under 2 K global warming. Especially in Western and Central Europe the projected impacts on low flows highly depend on the chosen water withdrawal assumption and can severely decrease under the worst case assumptions. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for future water withdrawals in low flow projections, showing that climate-focused impact assessments in near-natural catchments provide only one piece of the anticipated response and do not necessarily reflect changes in heavily managed river basins.

Eutrophication is a major global concern in lakes, caused by excessive nutrient loadings (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities and likely exacerbated by climate change. Present use of indicators to monitor and assess lake eutrophication is restricted to water quality constituents (e.g. total phosphorus, total nitrogen) and does not necessarily represent global environmental changes and the anthropogenic influences within the lake’s drainage basin. Nutrients interact in multiple ways with climate, basin conditions (e.g. socio-economic development, point-source, diffuse source pollutants), and lake systems. It is therefore essential to account for complex feedback mechanisms and non-linear interactions that exist between nutrients and lake ecosystems in eutrophication assessments. However, the lack of a set of water quality indicators that represent a holistic understanding of lake eutrophication challenges such assessments, in addition to the limited water quality monitoring data available. In this review, we synthesize the main indicators of eutrophication for global freshwater lake basins that not only include the water quality constituents but also the sources, biogeochemical pathways and responses of nutrient emissions. We develop a new causal network (i.e. multiple links of indicators) using the DPSIR (drivers-pressure-state-impact-response) framework that highlights complex interrelationships among the indicators and provides a holistic perspective of eutrophication dynamics in freshwater lake basins. We further review the 30 key indicators of drivers and pressures using seven cross-cutting themes: (i) hydro-climatology, (ii) socio-economy, (iii) land use, (iv) lake characteristics, (v) crop farming and livestock, (vi) hydrology and water management, and (vii) fishing and aquaculture. This study indicates a need for more comprehensive indicators that represent the complex mechanisms of eutrophication in lake systems, to guide the global expansion of water quality monitoring networks, and support integrated assessments to manage eutrophication. Finally, the indicators proposed in this study can be used by managers and decision-makers to monitor water quality and set realistic targets for sustainable water quality management to achieve clean water for all, in line with Sustainable Development Goal 6.

Low-carbon energy transitions taking place worldwide are primarily driven by the integration of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. These variable renewable energy (VRE) sources require energy storage options to match energy demand reliably at different time scales. This article suggests using a gravitational-based energy storage method by making use of decommissioned underground mines as storage reservoirs, using a vertical shaft and electric motor/generators for lifting and dumping large volumes of sand. The proposed technology, called Underground Gravity Energy Storage (UGES), can discharge electricity by lowering large volumes of sand into an underground mine through the mine shaft. When there is excess electrical energy in the grid, UGES can store electricity by elevating sand from the mine and depositing it in upper storage sites on top of the mine. Unlike battery energy storage, the energy storage medium of UGES is sand, which means the self-discharge rate of the system is zero, enabling ultra-long energy storage times. Furthermore, the use of sand as storage media alleviates any risk for contaminating underground water resources as opposed to an underground pumped hydro storage alternative. UGES offers weekly to pluriannual energy storage cycles with energy storage investment costs of about 1 to 10 USD/kWh. The technology is estimated to have a global energy storage potential of 7 to 70 TWh and can support sustainable development, mainly by providing seasonal energy storage services.

Climate change may impact groundwater storage and thus the availability of freshwater resources. Here the authors use climate models to examine seven aquifers and find that storage changes are primarily the result of enhancement of evapotranspiration, reduction in snowmelt, and over-pumping rather than long-term precipitation changes.

The authors here address water sustainability in the greater area of Beijing, China. Specifically, the positive effects towards Beijing groundwater levels via water diversion from the Yangtze River to the North are shown.

Adequate water availability is key to human and ecosystem sustainability. Here, the authors show that seasonally variable regimes become more variable, and the combined influence of seasonality and magnitude of climate variables will affect future water availability.

The potential of seasonal pumped hydropower storage (SPHS) plant to fulfil future energy storage requirements is vast in mountainous regions. Here the authors show that SPHS costs vary from 0.007 to 0.2 US$ m−3 of water stored, 1.8 to 50 US$ MWh−1 of energy stored and 0.37 to 0.6 US$ GW−1 of installed power generation capacity.

The role of solar and wind energy (SWE) in management of water-food-energy (WFE) nexus is largely neglected. Here the authors developed a trade-off frontier framework to quantify the water sustainability value of SWE and applied it in California, where they found that SWE penetration creates beneficial feedback for the WFE nexus by enhancing drought resilience and benefits groundwater sustainability over long run.

Abstract In this study, we examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of water stress in China for the historical (1971–2010) and the future (2021–2050) periods using a multimodel simulation approach. Three water stress indices (WSIs), that is, the ratios of water withdrawals to locally generated runoff (WSIR), to natural streamflow (WSIQ), and to natural streamflow minus upstream consumptive water withdrawals (WSIC), are used for the assessment. At the basin level, WSIR estimates generally match the reported data and indicate severe water stress in most northern basins. At the grid cell level, the WSIs show distinct spatial patterns of water stress wherein WSIR (WSIQ) estimates higher (lower) water stress compared to WSIC. Based on the WSIC estimates, 368 million people (nearly one third of the total population) are affected by severe water stress annually during the historical period, while WSIR and WSIQ suggest 595 and 340 million, respectively. Future projections of WSIC indicate that more than 600 million people (43% of the total) might be affected by severe water stress, and half of China's land area would be exposed to stress. The found aggravating water stress conditions could be partly attributed to the elevated future water withdrawals. This study emphasizes the necessity of considering explicit upstream and downstream relations with respect to both water availability and water use in water stress assessment and calls for more attention to increasing levels of water stress in China in the coming decades.

Impact models projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here the authors test systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions.

Groundwater storage is an important water management solution that is overlooked by several countries worldwide. This paper evaluates the potential for storing water in the Bananal sedimentary basin and proposes the construction of canals to reduce sediment obstructions in the river flow and harmful flood events. This would allow for better control of the water level. The water stored in the sedimentary basin can be used as a climate change adaptation measure to ensure that the level of the flood plain is maintained high during a drought or low during an intense flood event. Additionally, the flood plain will function as a water reservoir, regulate the river flow downstream from the flood plain, and enhance hydropower generation. A significantly smaller reservoir area is expected to store water, as the water will be stored as groundwater in the sedimentary basin. Results show that the Bananal basin has the potential to store up to 49 km3 of water, which can add up to 11.7 TWh of energy storage to the Brazilian energy matrix for a CAPEX energy storage cost of 0.095 USD/kWh. This is an interesting solution for the Araguaia basin and several other basins worldwide.

Abstract With the increasing pressure from population growth and economic development, northern China (NC) faces a grand challenge of water scarcity, which can be further exacerbated by climatic and societal changes. The South‐to‐North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to mitigate the water scarcity in NC. However, few studies have quantified the impact of the SNWD on water scarcity within the context of climatic and societal changes and its potential effects on economic and agricultural food in the region. We used water supply stress index (WaSSI) to quantify water scarcity within the context of environmental change in NC and developed a method to estimate the economic and agricultural impacts of the SNWD. Focuses were put on alleviating the water supply shortage and economic and agricultural benefits for the water‐receiving NC. We find that societal changes, especially economic growth, are the major contributors to water scarcity in NC during 2009–2099. To completely mitigate the water scarcity of NC, at least an additional water supply of 13 billion m3/year (comparable to the annual diversion water by SNWD Central Route) will be necessary. Although SNWD alone cannot provide the full solution to NC's water shortage in next few decades, it can significantly alleviate the water supply stress in NC (particularly Beijing), considerably increasing the agricultural production (more than 115 Tcal/year) and bringing economic benefits (more than 51 billion RMB/year) through supplying industrial and domestic water use. Additionally, the transfer project could have impacts on the ecological environment in the exporting regions.

Abstract Various transboundary river basins are facing increased pressure on water resources in near future. However, little is known ab out the future drivers globally, namely, changes in natural local runoff and natural inflows from upstream parts of a basin, as well as local and upstream water consumption. Here we use an ensemble of four global hydrological models forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse‐gas concentration (RCP) and socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to assess the impact of these drivers on transboundary water stress in the past and future. Our results show that population under water stress is expected to increase by 50% under a low population growth and emissions scenario (SSP1‐RCP2.6) and double under a high population growth and emission scenario (SSP3‐RCP6.0), compared to the year 2010. As changes in water availability have a smaller effect when water is not yet scarce, changes in water stress globally are dominated by local water consumption—managing local demand is thus necessary in order to avoid future stress. Focusing then on the role of upstream changes, we identified upstream availability (i.e., less natural runoff or increased water consumption) as the dominant driver of changes in net water availability in most downstream areas. Moreover, an increased number of people will be living in areas dependent on upstream originating water in 2050. International water treaties and management will therefore have an increasingly crucial role in these hot spot regions to ensure fair management of transboundary water resources.

Abstract In environmental management and sustainability there is an increasing interest in measurement and accounting of beneficial impact—as an incentive to action, as a communication tool, and to move toward a positive, constructive approach focused on opportunities rather than problems. One approach uses the metaphor of a “handprint,” complementing the notion of environmental footprints, which have been widely adopted for impact measurement and accounting. We analyze this idea by establishing core principles of handprint thinking: Handprint encourages actions with positive impacts and connects to analyses of footprint reductions but adds value to them and addresses the issue of what action should be taken. We also identify five key questions that need to be addressed and decisions that need to be made in performing a (potentially quantitative) handprint assessment, related to scoping of the improvement to be made, how it is achieved, and how credit is assigned, taking into account constraints on action. A case study of the potential water footprint reduction of an average Finn demonstrates how handprint thinking can be a natural extension of footprint reduction analyses. We find that there is a diversity of possible handprint assessments that have the potential to encourage doing good. Their common foundation is “handprint thinking.”

Abstract The planetary boundaries framework defines the “safe operating space for humanity” represented by nine global processes that can destabilize the Earth System if perturbed. The water planetary boundary attempts to provide a global limit to anthropogenic water cycle modifications, but it has been challenging to translate and apply it to the regional and local scales at which water problems and management typically occur. We develop a cross‐scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features (e.g., watershed or aquifer), political borders (e.g., city, nation, or group of nations), or commercial entities (e.g., corporation, trade group, or financial institution). The application of the water planetary boundary at these subglobal contexts occurs via two approaches: (i) calculating fair shares, in which local water cycle modifications are compared to that context's allocation of the global safe operating space, taking into account biophysical, socioeconomic, and ethical considerations; and (ii) defining a local safe operating space, in which interactions between water stores and Earth System components are used to define local boundaries required for sustaining the local water system in stable conditions, which we demonstrate with a case study of the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta wetlands in Colombia. By harmonizing these two approaches, the water planetary boundary can ensure that water cycle modifications remain within both local and global boundaries and complement existing water management and governance approaches.

Abstract Declining gauging infrastructure and fractious water politics have decreased available information about river flows globally. Remote sensing and water balance modeling are frequently cited as potential solutions, but these techniques largely rely on these same in‐decline gauge data to make accurate discharge estimates. A different approach is therefore needed, and we here combine remotely sensed discharge estimates made via at‐many‐stations hydraulic geometry (AMHG) and the PCR‐GLOBWB hydrological model to estimate discharge over the Lower Nile. Specifically, we first estimate initial discharges from 87 Landsat images and AMHG (1984–2015), and then use these flow estimates to tune the model, all without using gauge data. The resulting tuned modeled hydrograph shows a large improvement in flow magnitude: validation of the tuned monthly hydrograph against a historical gauge (1978–1984) yields an RMSE of 439 m3/s (40.8%). By contrast, the original simulation had an order‐of‐magnitude flow error. This improvement is substantial but not perfect: tuned flows have a 1–2 month wet season lag and a negative base flow bias. Accounting for this 2 month lag yields a hydrograph RMSE of 270 m3/s (25.7%). Thus, our results coupling physical models and remote sensing is a promising first step and proof of concept toward future modeling of ungauged flows, especially as developments in cloud computing for remote sensing make our method easily applicable to any basin. Finally, we purposefully do not offer prescriptive solutions for Nile management, and rather hope that the methods demonstrated herein can prove useful to river stakeholders in managing their own water.

Abstract The dwindling groundwater resource of India, supporting almost one fifth of the global population and also the largest groundwater user, has been of great concern in recent years. However, in contrary to the well documented Indian groundwater depletion due to rapid and unmanaged groundwater withdrawal, here for the first time, we report regional-scale groundwater storage (GWS) replenishment through long-term (1996–2014, using more than 19000 observation locations) in situ and decadal (2003–2014) satellite-based groundwater storage measurements in western and southern parts of India. In parts of western and southern India, in situ GWS (GWSobs) has been decreasing at the rate of −5.81 ± 0.38 km3/year (in 1996–2001) and −0.92 ± 0.12 km3/year (in 1996–2002), and reversed to replenish at the rate of 2.04 ± 0.20 km3/year (in 2002–2014) and 0.76 ± 0.08 km3/year (in 2003–2014), respectively. Here, using statistical analyses and simulation results of groundwater management policy change effect on groundwater storage in western and southern India, we show that paradigm shift in Indian groundwater withdrawal and management policies for sustainable water utilization appear to have started replenishing the aquifers in western and southern parts of India.

Abstract Changes in the climate and population growth will critically impact the future supply and demand of water, leading to large uncertainties for sustainable resource management. In the absence of on-the-ground measurements to provide spatially continuous, high-resolution information on water supplies, satellite observations can provide essential insight. Here, we develop a technique using observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite to evaluate the sustainability of surface water and groundwater use over the continental United States. We determine the annual total water availability for 2003–2015 using the annual variability in GRACE-derived total water storage for 18 major watersheds. The long-term sustainable water quantity available to humans is calculated by subtracting an annual estimate of the water needed to maintain local ecosystems, and the resulting water volumes are compared to reported consumptive water use to determine a sustainability fraction. We find over-consumption is highest in the southwest US, where increasing stress trends were observed in all five basins and annual consumptive use exceeded 100% availability twice in the Lower Colorado basin during 2003–2015. By providing a coarse-scale evaluation of sustainable water use from satellite and ground observations, the established framework serves as a blueprint for future large-scale water resource monitoring.

Abstract The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

The maritime shipping sector is a major contributor to CO2 emissions and this figure is expected to rise in coming decades. With the intent of reducing emissions from this sector, this research proposes the utilization of the jet stream to transport a combination of cargo and hydrogen, using airships or balloons at altitudes of 10–20 km. The jet streams flow in the mid-latitudes predominantly in a west–east direction, reaching an average wind speed of 165 km/h. Using this combination of high wind speeds and reliable direction, hydrogen-filled airships or balloons could carry hydrogen with a lower fuel requirement and shorter travel time compared to conventional shipping. Jet streams at different altitudes in the atmosphere were used to identify the most appropriate circular routes for global airship travel. Round-the-world trips would take 16 days in the Northern Hemisphere and 14 in the Southern Hemisphere. Hydrogen transport via the jet stream, due to its lower energy consumption and shorter cargo delivery time, access to cities far from the coast, could be a competitive alternative to maritime shipping and liquefied hydrogen tankers in the development of a sustainable future hydrogen economy. Keywords: Jet stream, Airships, Balloons, Hydrogen, Cargo, Shipping, Hydrogen economy

Water scarcity threatens people in various regions, and has predominantly been studied from a water quantity perspective only. Here we show that global water scarcity is driven by both water quantity and water quality issues, and quantify expansions in clean water technologies (i.e. desalination and treated wastewater reuse) to ‘reduce the number of people suffering from water scarcity’ as urgently required by UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 6. Including water quality (i.e. water temperature, salinity, organic pollution and nutrients) contributes to an increase in percentage of world’s population currently suffering from severe water scarcity from an annual average of 30% (22%–35% monthly range; water quantity only) to 40% (31%–46%; both water quantity and quality). Water quality impacts are in particular high in severe water scarcity regions, such as in eastern China and India. In these regions, excessive sectoral water withdrawals do not only contribute to water scarcity from a water quantity perspective, but polluted return flows degrade water quality, exacerbating water scarcity. We show that expanding desalination (from 2.9 to 13.6 billion m ^3 month ^−1 ) and treated wastewater uses (from 1.6 to 4.0 billion m ^3 month ^−1 ) can strongly reduce water scarcity levels and the number of people affected, especially in Asia, although the side effects (e.g. brine, energy demand, economic costs) must be considered. The presented results have potential for follow-up integrated analyses accounting for technical and economic constraints of expanding desalination and treated wastewater reuse across the world.

Groundwater extraction has grown tremendously in Saudi Arabia to meet the irrigation water demand since the 1980s, and irrigation is one of the major anthropogenic factors modulating regional hydroclimate. However, the link between irrigation and hydroclimate is not well understood in a dry region such as Saudi Arabia. In this study, we utilize three different regional climate models to explore the physical mechanisms behind the irrigation impacts in this region. The results are robust across models and show that when irrigation is applied, wetter soil results in higher evapotranspiration and cools the lower atmosphere, leading to an anomalous pressure field and alters vapor transportation. Precipitation decreases locally because of the local cooling effect, whereas additional water vapor convergence enhances precipitation west to the irrigated region. This west–east contrast of precipitation change indicates a possible link between irrigation expansion in the 1980s and subsequent decadal precipitation variations in central Saudi Arabia. We further find from observations a decadal west–east contrast of precipitation changes in Saudi Arabia to support the similar finding in the models. This study implies the importance of including anthropogenic water management in climate models and provides a better understanding of how irrigation impacts local-to-regional climate.

Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient climate in comparison with the equilibrium climate. Therefore, it is unclear whether floods and droughts projected under a transient climate can be systematically substituted for those occurring in an equilibrated climate. Here, by employing a large ensemble of global hydrological models (HMs) forced by global climate models, we assess the validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Differences in flood characteristics under transient and equilibrium climates could be largely ascribed to natural variability, indicating that the floods derived from a transient climate reasonably approximate the floods expected in an equally warm, equilibrated climate. By contrast, significant differences in drought intensity between transient and equilibrium climates were detected over a larger global land area than expected from natural variability. Despite the large differences among HMs in representing the low streamflow regime, we found that the drought intensities occurring under a transient climate may not validly represent the intensities in an equally warm equilibrated climate for approximately 6.7% of the global land area.

Increasing human demands for water, energy, food and materials, are expected to accentuate resource supply challenges over the coming decades. Experience suggests that long-term strategies for a single sector could yield both trade-offs and synergies for other sectors. Thus, long-term transition pathways for linked resource systems should be informed using nexus approaches. Global integrated assessment models can represent the synergies and trade-offs inherent in the exploitation of water, energy and land (WEL) resources, including the impacts of international trade and climate policies. In this study, we review the current state-of-the-science in global integrated assessment modeling with an emphasis on how models have incorporated integrated WEL solutions. A large-scale assessment of the relevant literature was performed using online databases and structured keyword search queries. The results point to the following main opportunities for future research and model development: (1) improving the temporal and spatial resolution of economic models for the energy and water sectors; (2) balancing energy and land requirements across sectors; (3) integrated representation of the role of distribution infrastructure in alleviating resource challenges; (4) modeling of solution impacts on downstream environmental quality; (5) improved representation of the implementation challenges stemming from regional financial and institutional capacity; (6) enabling dynamic multi-sectoral vulnerability and adaptation needs assessment; and (7) the development of fully-coupled assessment frameworks based on consistent, scalable, and regionally-transferable platforms. Improved database management and computational power are needed to address many of these modeling challenges at a global-scale.

Energy systems support technical solutions fulfilling the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal for clean water and sanitation (SDG6), with implications for future energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions. The energy sector is also a large consumer of water, making water efficiency targets ingrained in SDG6 important constraints for long-term energy planning. Here, we apply a global integrated assessment model to quantify the cost and characteristics of infrastructure pathways balancing SDG6 targets for water access, scarcity, treatment and efficiency with long-term energy transformations limiting climate warming to 1.5 °C. Under a mid-range human development scenario, we find that approximately 1 trillion USD2010 per year is required to close water infrastructure gaps and operate water systems consistent with achieving SDG6 goals by 2030. Adding a 1.5 °C climate policy constraint increases these costs by up to 8%. In the reverse direction, when the SDG6 targets are added on top of the 1.5 °C policy constraint, the cost to transform and operate energy systems increases 2%–9% relative to a baseline 1.5 °C scenario that does not achieve the SDG6 targets by 2030. Cost increases in the SDG6 pathways are due to expanded use of energy-intensive water treatment and costs associated with water conservation measures in power generation, municipal, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Combined global spending (capital and operational expenditures) to 2030 on water, energy and land systems increases 92%–125% in the integrated SDG6-1.5 °C scenarios relative to a baseline ‘no policy’ scenario. Evaluation of the multi-sectoral policies underscores the importance of water conservation and integrated water–energy planning for avoiding costs from interacting water, energy and climate goals.

Population growth, economic development, and dietary changes have drastically increased the demand for food and water. The resulting expansion of irrigated agriculture into semi-arid areas with limited precipitation and surface water has greatly increased the dependence of irrigated crops on groundwater withdrawal. Also, the increasing number of people living in mega-cities without access to clean surface water or piped drinking water has drastically increased urban groundwater use. The result of these trends has been the steady increase of the use of non-renewable groundwater resources and associated high rates of aquifer depletion around the globe. We present a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in research on non-renewable groundwater use and groundwater depletion. We start with a section defining the concepts of non-renewable groundwater, fossil groundwater and groundwater depletion and place these concepts in a hydrogeological perspective. We pay particular attention to the interaction between groundwater withdrawal, recharge and surface water which is critical to understanding sustainable groundwater withdrawal. We provide an overview of methods that have been used to estimate groundwater depletion, followed by an extensive review of global and regional depletion estimates, the adverse impacts of groundwater depletion and the hydroeconomics of groundwater use. We end this review with an outlook for future research based on main research gaps and challenges identified. This review shows that both the estimates of current depletion rates and the future availability of non-renewable groundwater are highly uncertain and that considerable data and research challenges need to be overcome if we hope to reduce this uncertainty in the near future.

Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those ‘vulnerable to poverty’ from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income

Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with historical model simulations from the global water, agriculture, and biomes sectors participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). Among the independent estimates, we use the EartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset (E2O), two commonly used reanalyses, a pre-compiled ensemble product (LandFlux-EVAL), and an updated collection of recently published datasets that algorithmically derive ET from observations or observations-based estimates (diagnostic datasets). A cluster analysis is applied in order to identify spatio-temporal differences among all datasets and to thus identify factors that dominate overall uncertainties. The clustering is controlled by several factors including the model choice, the meteorological forcing used to drive the assessed models, the data category (models participating in the different sectors of ISIMIP2a, E2O models, diagnostic estimates, reanalysis-based estimates or composite products), the ET scheme, and the number of soil layers in the models. By using these factors to explain spatial and spatio-temporal variabilities in ET, we find that the model choice mostly dominates (24%–40% of variance explained), except for spatio-temporal patterns of total ET, where the forcing explains the largest fraction of the variance (29%). The most dominant clusters of datasets are further compared with individual diagnostic and reanalysis-based estimates to assess their representation of selected heat waves and droughts in the Great Plains, Central Europe and western Russia. Although most of the ET estimates capture these extreme events, the generally large spread among the entire ensemble indicates substantial uncertainties.

Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models’ ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output.

We performed an intercomparison of river discharge regulated by dams under four meteorological forcings among five global hydrological models for a historical period by simulation. This is the first global multimodel intercomparison study on dam-regulated river flow. Although the simulations were conducted globally, the Missouri–Mississippi and Green–Colorado Rivers were chosen as case-study sites in this study. The hydrological models incorporate generic schemes of dam operation, not specific to a certain dam. We examined river discharge on a longitudinal section of river channels to investigate the effects of dams on simulated discharge, especially at the seasonal time scale. We found that the magnitude of dam regulation differed considerably among the hydrological models. The difference was attributable not only to dam operation schemes but also to the magnitude of simulated river discharge flowing into dams. That is, although a similar algorithm of dam operation schemes was incorporated in different hydrological models, the magnitude of dam regulation substantially differed among the models. Intermodel discrepancies tended to decrease toward the lower reaches of these river basins, which means model dependence is less significant toward lower reaches. These case-study results imply that, intermodel comparisons of river discharge should be made at different locations along the river's course to critically examine the performance of hydrological models because the performance can vary with the locations.

Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971–2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2% for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (−20% to 5%, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from −20% to 20%. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only better performances of historical simulations but also more robust and confidential future projections of hydrological changes under a changing environment.

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971–2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience ‘low water security’ over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated—physical and socio-economic—approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term ‘security’ is conceptualized as a function of ‘availability’, ‘accessibility to services’, ‘safety and quality’, and ‘management’. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

Overuse of surface water and an increasing reliance on nonrenewable groundwater resources have been reported over various regions of the world, casting significant doubt on the sustainable water supply and food production met by irrigation. To assess the limitations of global water resources, numerous indicators have been developed, but they rarely consider nonrenewable water use. In addition, surface water over-abstraction is rarely assessed in the context of human and environmental water needs. Here, we perform a transient assessment of global water use over the historical period 1960–2010 as well as the future projections of 2011–2099, using a newly developed indicator: the blue water sustainability index (BlWSI). The BlWSI incorporates both nonrenewable groundwater use and nonsustainable water use that compromises environmental flow requirements. Our results reveal an increasing trend of water consumed from nonsustainable surface water and groundwater resources over the historical period (∼30%), and this increase is projected to continue further towards the end of this century (∼40%). The global amount of nonsustainable water consumption has been increasing especially since the late 1990s, despite a wetter climate and increasing water availability during this period. The BlWSI is the first tool suitable for consistently evaluating the renewability and degradation of surface water and groundwater resources as a result of human water over-abstraction.

Internationally shared, or transboundary, aquifers (TBAs) have long played an important role in sustaining drinking water supply and food production, supporting livelihoods of millions of people worldwide. Rapidly growing populations and their food demands cast significant doubt on the sustainability of TBAs. Here, this study provides a first quantitative assessment of TBAs worldwide with an aquifer stress indicator over the period 1960–2010 using groundwater abstraction, groundwater recharge, and groundwater contribution to environment flow. The results reveal that 8% of TBAs worldwide are currently stressed due to human overexploitation. Over these TBAs the rate of groundwater pumping increased substantially during the past fifty years, which worsened the aquifer stress condition. In addition, many TBAs over Europe, Asia and Africa are not currently stressed, but their aquifer stress has been increasing at an alarming rate (>100%) for the past fifty years, due to the increasing reliance on groundwater abstraction for food production. Groundwater depletion is substantial over several TBAs including the India River Plain (India, Pakistan), the Paleogene and Cretaceous aquifers (the Arabian Peninsula), and a few TBAs over the USA–Mexico border. Improving irrigation efficiency can reduce the amount of groundwater depletion over some TBAs, but it likely aggravates groundwater depletion over TBAs where conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater is prevalent.

Over the past 50 years, human water use has more than doubled and affected streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought (the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow). Here, we quantify over the period 1960–2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought worldwide. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow over Europe, North America and Asia, and subsequently intensified the magnitude of hydrological droughts by 10–500%, occurring during nation- and continent-wide drought events. Also, human water consumption alone increased global drought frequency by 27 (±6)%. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia (35 ± 7%), but also substantial over North America (25 ± 6%) and Europe (20 ± 5%). Importantly, the severe drought conditions are driven primarily by human water consumption over many parts of these regions. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over the western and central US, southern Europe and Asia, whereas the impact of industrial and households’ consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over the eastern US and western and central Europe. Our findings reveal that human water consumption is one of the more important mechanisms intensifying hydrological drought, and is likely to remain as a major factor affecting drought intensity and frequency in the coming decades.

Changes in the Yangtze River level induced by large-scale human water regulation have profound implications on the inundation dynamics of surrounding lakes/wetlands and the integrity of related ecosystems. Using in situ measurements and hydrological simulation, this study reveals an altered Yangtze level regime downstream from the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) to the Yangtze estuary in the East China Sea as a combined result of (i) TGD’s flow regulation and (ii) Yangtze channel erosion due to reduced sediment load. During the average annual cycle of TGD’s regular flow control in 2009–2012, downstream Yangtze level variations were estimated to have been reduced by 3.9–13.5% at 15 studied gauging stations, manifested as evident level decrease in fall and increase in winter and spring. The impacts on Yangtze levels generally diminished in a longitudinal direction from the TGD to the estuary, with a total time lag of ∼9–12 days. Chronic Yangtze channel erosion since the TGD closure has lowered water levels in relation to flows at most downstream stations, which in turn counteracts the anticipated level increase by nearly or over 50% in winter and spring while reinforcing the anticipated level decrease by over 20% in fall. Continuous downstream channel erosion in the near future may further counteract the benefit of increased Yangtze levels during TGD’s water supplement in winter and accelerate the receding of inundation areas/levels of downstream lakes in fall.

Groundwater is a critical resource for agricultural production, ecosystems, drinking water and industry, yet groundwater depletion is accelerating, especially in a number of agriculturally important regions. Assessing the stress of groundwater resources is crucial for science-based policy and management, yet water stress assessments have often neglected groundwater and used single data sources, which may underestimate the uncertainty of the assessment. We consistently analyze and interpret groundwater stress across whole nations using multiple data sources for the first time. We focus on two nations with the highest national groundwater abstraction rates in the world, the United States and India, and use the recently developed groundwater footprint and multiple datasets of groundwater recharge and withdrawal derived from hydrologic models and data synthesis. A minority of aquifers, mostly with known groundwater depletion, show groundwater stress regardless of the input dataset. The majority of aquifers are not stressed with any input data while less than a third are stressed for some input data. In both countries groundwater stress affects agriculturally important regions. In the United States, groundwater stress impacts a lower proportion of the national area and population, and is focused in regions with lower population and water well density compared to India. Importantly, the results indicate that the uncertainty is generally greater between datasets than within datasets and that much of the uncertainty is due to recharge estimates. Assessment of groundwater stress consistently across a nation and assessment of uncertainty using multiple datasets are critical for the development of a science-based rationale for policy and management, especially with regard to where and to what extent to focus limited research and management resources.