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High severity fire is far outpacing post-fire reforestation capacity across the American West, highlighting the need to better understand when and where natural regeneration is sufficient to meet short- and long-term reforestation goals. The vast majority of available post-fire data represents regeneration in the first few years following a fire, raising the question of how well recovery trajectories can be predicted from early post-fire snapshots. We utilize a unique dataset from seven wildfires and 78 plots surveyed twice following stand-replacing fire in two California ecoregions, the northern Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains, to ask (1) how are post-fire vegetation and conifer densities changing over time and (2) how well do relatively early post-fire sampling efforts and biophysical factors (availability of seed source, shrub competition, and microclimate) explain longer-term (12–23 year) conifer recovery in California dry forests. Change in conifer seedling density between survey periods was highly variable. Overall, densities of all conifer species during the first decade after fire provided reliable estimates of longer-term conifer recovery in northern California dry forests, though in different ways for different species. Early post-fire seedling density readily explained longer-term densities for less shade-tolerant species, yellow pine (Pinus ponderosa and Pinus jeffreyi) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii). In contrast, early seedling density was a poor predictor for shade-tolerant species, predominantly white fir (Abies concolor), with site conditions better explaining longer-term density. In general, the probability of a site experiencing net seedling mortality between surveys was highest in sites with high shrub cover and the probability of net recruitment increased with decreasing heat load, suggesting a continued role of microclimate and competition in forest recovery long after the initial post-fire period. Our results lend support to the use of relatively early post-fire surveys to infer longer-term forest recovery trajectories for forest management planning and can help refine reforestation prioritization tools. • Long-term post-fire conifer seedling densities can be reliably predicted from early post-fire data. • Early post-fire seedling density readily explained longer-term densities for yellow pine and Douglas-fir. • Site conditions are a strong predictor of long-term fir seedling density. • Long-term seedling mortality was more likely in sites with high shrub cover. • Long-term seedling recruitment was more likely in sites with low heat load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]