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Abstract Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.

Mangrove loss has reduced its carbon (C) sink function and ecosystem services. To effectively allocate climate finance for mangrove restoration, a thorough assessment of restoration potential is necessary. Here we show a net loss of ecosystem service value (ESV) of 29.2 billion USD ($) due to land changes in mangroves from 1996 to 2019. The estimated mangrove ESV in 2019 amounts to $894 billion yr−1, mainly provided by regulating and provisioning services (57.4% and 19.7%). Over the next two decades, we project that the restoration of mangroves would necessitate an investment of $40.0–52.1 billion, yielding net gains in ESV of $231–725 billion. The global benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of mangrove restoration ranges from 6.35 to 15.0, demonstrating that such projects are highly cost-effective. Furthermore, an estimated of 19.4 Tg C can be sequestrated in mangrove soils based on a 20-year mangrove restoration program, which can generate $68.6–$236 million via blue C trading. Our findings highlight the significant opportunities for blue C restoration projects to mitigate climate change and support livelihoods. Potential mangrove restoration would necessitate an investment of $40.0–52.1 billion, yielding net gains in ESV of $231–725 billion. An estimated of 19.4 Tg C can be sequestrated in mangrove soils, generating $68.6–$236 million via blue C trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High humidity combined with high temperature decreases the human body's capability to dissipate heat, causing serious health issues. While increased attention has been paid to changes in humid‐heat extremes under the current climate and in the future, the causes of near‐surface humid‐heat extremes over the Yangtze River Delta region are still unclear. Here we investigate the relationships between quasi‐stationary waves (QSWs), which are atmospheric Rossby waves with phase speed close to zero, and humid‐heat extremes over the Yangtze River Delta region during the summer from 1959 to 2021. Additionally, the potential physical processes that link them are also explored. We find that the QSWs with wavenumber 1–8 present different vertical structures: Wave 1–2 are baroclinic, while Wave 3–8 are barotropic. Wave 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 8 show phase‐locking behaviour. When the amplitudes of Wave 1, 3, 5 and 6 are higher, the frequency of humid‐heat extremes near the surface at specific locations tends to be higher than the norm. The high‐amplitude waves in different wavenumbers modulate near‐surface temperature and/or humidity in various ways, ultimately resulting in anomalously intensive humid‐heat extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal tidal wetlands produce and accumulate significant amounts of organic carbon (C) that help to mitigate climate change. However, previous data limitations have prevented a robust evaluation of the global rates and mechanisms driving C accumulation. Here, we go beyond recent soil C stock estimates to reveal global tidal wetland C accumulation and predict changes under relative sea level rise, temperature and precipitation. We use data from literature study sites and our new observations spanning wide latitudinal gradients and 20 countries. Globally, tidal wetlands accumulate 53.65 (95%CI: 48.52–59.01) Tg C yr−1, which is ∼30% of the organic C buried on the ocean floor. Modeling based on current climatic drivers and under projected emissions scenarios revealed a net increase in the global C accumulation by 2100. This rapid increase is driven by sea level rise in tidal marshes, and higher temperature and precipitation in mangroves. Countries with large areas of coastal wetlands, like Indonesia and Mexico, are more susceptible to tidal wetland C losses under climate change, while regions such as Australia, Brazil, the USA and China will experience a significant C accumulation increase under all projected scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the physical mechanisms that drive the poleward propagation of zonal-mean flow anomalies over the North Atlantic during the boreal winter with ECMWF ERA40 reanalysis data that spans the years 1958-2001. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed on the zonal wind anomalies for the North Atlantic domain. Based on time-lag correlations between the first two EOFs, 14 poleward propagation events are identified. A series of lagged composite calculations of the poleward propagation events reveals the following processes: midlatitude synoptic-scale Rossby waves propagate equatorward and break when they encounter their critical latitudes in the Tropics and Subtropics; a new critical latitude is generated slightly poleward of the previous critical latitude, and the subsequent wave breaking occurs at this new critical latitude. This interaction between the wave breaking and the critical latitude drives the poleward propagation of zonal-mean zonal wind anomaly. A comparison between the poleward propagation events and zonal index events indicates that the poleward propagation is associated with a relatively weak potential vorticity gradient over the Subtropics. These North Atlantic poleward propagation events are found to be preceded by anomalously strong transient eddy activity over the subtropical North Pacific, and by anomalously weak tropical convection over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Amazon. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]