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Experiments show that elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) often enhances plant photosynthesis and productivity, yet this effect varies substantially and may be climate sensitive. Understanding if, where and how water supply regulates CO2 enhancement is critical for projecting terrestrial responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change. Here, using data from 14 long-term ecosystem-scale CO2 experiments, we show that the eCO2 enhancement of annual aboveground net primary productivity is sensitive to annual precipitation and that this sensitivity differs between woody and grassland ecosystems. During wetter years, CO2 enhancement increases in woody ecosystems but declines in grass-dominated systems. Consistent with this difference, woody ecosystems can increase leaf area index in wetter years more effectively under eCO2 than can grassland ecosystems. Overall, and across different precipitation regimes, woody systems had markedly stronger CO2 enhancement (24%) than grasslands (13%). We developed an empirical relationship to quantify aboveground net primary productivity enhancement on the basis of changes in leaf area index, providing a new approach for evaluating eCO2 impacts on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems.

Climate models project warmer summer temperatures will increase the frequency and heat severity of droughts in temperate forests of Eastern North America. Hotter droughts are increasingly documented to affect tree growth and forest dynamics, with critical impacts on tree mortality, carbon sequestration and timber provision. The growing acknowledgement of the dominant role of drought timing on tree vulnerability to water deficit raises the issue of our limited understanding of radial growth phenology for most temperate tree species. Here, we use well-replicated dendrometer band data sampled frequently during the growing season to assess the growth phenology of 610 trees from 15 temperate species over 6 years. Patterns of diameter growth follow a typical logistic shape, with growth rates reaching a maximum in June, and then decreasing until process termination. On average, we find that diffuse-porous species take 16–18 days less than other wood-structure types to put on 50% of their annual diameter growth. However, their peak growth rate occurs almost a full month later than ring-porous and conifer species (ca. 24 ± 4 days; mean ± 95% credible interval). Unlike other species, the growth phenology of diffuse-porous species in our dataset is highly correlated with their spring foliar phenology. We also find that the later window of growth in diffuse-porous species, coinciding with peak evapotranspiration and lower water availability, exposes them to a higher water deficit of 88 ± 19 mm (mean ± SE) during their peak growth than ring-porous and coniferous species (15 ± 35 mm and 30 ± 30 mm, respectively). Given the high climatic sensitivity of wood formation, our findings highlight the importance of wood porosity as one predictor of species climatic sensitivity to the projected intensification of the drought regime in the coming decades.

Whether increased photosynthates under elevated atmospheric CO

Experiments show that elevated atmospheric CO

Forest resource use efficiencies (RUEs) can vary with tree age, but the nature of these trends and their underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Understanding the age dynamics of forest RUEs and their drivers is vital for assessing the trade-offs between forest functions and resource consumption, making rational management policy, and projecting ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here we used the FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux datasets and published literature to explore the age-dependent variability of forest light use efficiency (LUE) and inherent water use efficiency as well as their main regulatory variables in temperate regions. Our results showed that evergreen forest RUEs initially increased before reaching the mature stage (i.e., around 90 years old), and then gradually declined; in contrast, RUEs continuously increased with age for mature deciduous forests. Changing canopy photosynthetic capacity (Amax) was the primary cause of age-related changes in RUEs across temperate forest sites. More importantly, soil nitrogen (N) increased in mature deciduous forests through time but decreased in older evergreen forests. The age-dependent changes in soil N were closely linked with the age dynamics of Amax for mature temperate forests. Additionally, soil nutrient conditions played a greater role in deciduous forest RUEs than evergreen forest RUEs. This study highlights the importance of stand age and forest type on temperate forest RUEs over the long term.

In boreal forests and alpine treelines, it is debatable how the temperature sensitivity of tree-ring growth should vary with changes in climate over time and the extent to which seasonal stem increments are controlled by leaf physiology. We aim to test the hypothesis that, in cold-limited forests, maximizing stem growth rate around summer solstice is closely related to foliage turnover, which generally results in high sensitivity of stem growth and less sensitivity of nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) to early-season temperatures. Our analysis was based on repeat-census observations of stem radial increment (2008–2013; made with dendrometers) and monthly litterfall (2007–2015) as well as the measurements of tree-ring width series (1960–2015; made with tree-ring cores) in two Tibetan treeline forests. NUE was estimated as the inverse of leaf-litter nitrogen concentration. We further examined a global dataset of tree-ring chronologies (1931–1990) from 139 sites across temperate and boreal coniferous forests in the northern high-latitude region. Weekly stem increments across species and years synchronously peaked around summer solstice, with more than half of annual increment produced in the first 28–35 days of the growing season when air and soil temperatures were still low. Monthly stem increments were positively related to previous-month litterfall, and higher litterfall generally resulted in higher NUE. NUE was insensitive or less sensitive to soil temperature in the early growing season. Among years, pre-peak increments were positively correlated with pre-solstice temperatures while post-peak increments varied little. The annual increment was dominated by and coherent with the pre-peak increment and well correlated with the ring-width measurements of monitored trees during 2008–2013. Variations in tree-ring width chronologies from the two Tibetan treelines and the global 139 forest sites mainly reflected the change of early summer temperatures. The findings suggest a day-length control on the linkage between seasonal stem growth and nitrogen cycling in a cold-limited forest ecosystem, and provide the basic for predicting responses of tree-ring growth and NUE to climatic warming.

Management of forest carbon stocks on public lands is critical to maintaining or enhancing carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. Acknowledging this, an array of federal regulations and policies have emerged that requires US National Forests to report baseline carbon stocks and changes due to disturbance and management and assess how management activities and forest plans affect carbon stocks. To address these requirements with the best-available science, we compiled empirical and remotely sensed data covering the National Forests (one fifth of the area of US forest land) and analyzed this information using a carbon modeling framework. We demonstrate how integration of various data and models provides a comprehensive evaluation of key drivers of observed carbon trends, for individual National Forests. The models in this framework complement each other with different strengths: the Carbon Calculation Tool uses inventory data to report baseline carbon stocks; the Forest Carbon Management Framework integrates inventory data, disturbance histories, and growth and yield trajectories to report relative effects of disturbances on carbon stocks; and the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Model incorporates disturbance, climate, and atmospheric data to determine their relative impacts on forest carbon accumulation and loss. We report results for several National Forests across the USA and compare their carbon dynamics. Results show that recent disturbances are causing some forests to transition from carbon sinks to sources, particularly in the West. Meanwhile, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and nitrogen deposition are consistently increasing carbon stocks, partially offsetting declines due to disturbances and aging. Climate variability introduces concomitant interannual variability in net carbon uptake or release. Targeting forest disturbance and post-disturbance regrowth is critical to management objectives that involve maintaining or enhancing future carbon sequestration.

The recent ‘warming hiatus’ presents an excellent opportunity to investigate climate sensitivity of carbon cycle processes. Here we combine satellite and atmospheric observations to show that the rate of net biome productivity (NBP) has significantly accelerated from −0.007 ± 0.065 PgC yr−2 over the warming period (1982 to 1998) to 0.119 ± 0.071 PgC yr−2 over the warming hiatus (1998–2012). This acceleration in NBP is not due to increased primary productivity, but rather reduced respiration that is correlated (r = 0.58; P = 0.0007) and sensitive (γ = 4.05 to 9.40 PgC yr−1 per °C) to land temperatures. Global land models do not fully capture this apparent reduced respiration over the warming hiatus; however, an empirical model including soil temperature and moisture observations better captures the reduced respiration. Satellite and atmospheric observations show that the rate of net biome productivity has accelerated over the warming ‘hiatus’ period (1998–2012). This net gain results from reduced respiration, rather than increased primary productivity.

Forest soils represent a major stock of organic carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere, but the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock are poorly quantified, especially based on direct field measurements. In this study, we investigated the 20-year changes in the SOC stocks at eight sites from southern to northern China. The averaged SOC stocks increased from 125.2 ± 85.2 Mg C ha−1 in the 1990s to 133.6 ± 83.1 Mg C ha−1 in the 2010s across the forest sites, with a mean increase of 127–908 kg C ha−1 yr−1. This SOC accumulation was resulted primarily from both leaf litter and fallen logs and equivalent to 3.6–16.3 % of aboveground net primary production. Our findings provide strong evidence that China's forest soils have been acting as significant carbon sinks although their strength varies with forests in different climates.

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011–2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty-first century. Although our model in conjunction with multiple disturbance scenarios may not reflect the true conditions of future forests, it provides a range of potential conditions as well as a useful guide to both current and future forest carbon management.

Quantifying forest biomass carbon (C) stock change is important for understanding forest dynamics and their feedbacks with climate change. Forests in the northeastern U.S. have been a net carbon sink in recent decades, but C accumulation in some northern hardwood forests has been halted due to the impact of emerging stresses such as invasive pests, land use change and climate change. The Delaware River Basin (DRB), sited in the southern edge of the northern hardwood forest, features diverse forest types and land-use histories. In 2001–2003, the DRB Monitoring and Research Initiative established 61 forest plots in three research sites, using Forest Service inventory protocols and enhanced measurements. These plots were revisited and re-measured in 2012–2014. By comparing forest biomass C stocks in the two measurements, our results suggest that the biomass C stock of the DRB forest increased, and was thus a carbon sink over the past decade. The net biomass C stock change in the Neversink area in the north of the DRB was 1.94 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, smaller than the biomass C change in the French Creek area (2.52 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, southern DRB), and Delaware Water Gap Area (2.68 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, central DRB). An increase of dead biomass C accounted for 20% of the total biomass C change. The change of biomass C stocks did not correlate with any climatic or topographic factors, but decreased with increasing stand age, and with tree mortality rate. Mortality rates were highest in the smallest size class. In most of the major tree species, stem density decreased, but the loss of biomass from mortality was offset by recruitment and growth. The demographic changes differ dramatically among species. The living biomass of chestnut oak, white oak and black oak decreased because of the large mortality rate, while white pine, American beech and sweet birch increased in both biomass and stem density. Our results suggest that forests in the DRB could continue to be a carbon sink in the coming decades, because they are likely at a middle successional stage. The linkage between demography of individual trees species and biomass C change underscores the effects of species-specific disturbances such as non-native insects and pathogens on forest dynamics, and highlights the need for forest managers to anticipate these effects in their management plans.

Forests play a leading role in regional and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycles. Changes in C sequestration within forests can be attributed to areal expansion (increase in forest area) and forest growth (increase in biomass density). Detailed assessment of the relative contributions of areal expansion and forest growth to C sinks is crucial to reveal the mechanisms that control forest C sinks and it is helpful for developing sustainable forest management policies in the face of climate change. Using the Forest Identity concept and forest inventory data, this study quantified the spatial and temporal changes in the relative contributions of forest areal expansion and increased biomass growth to China's forest biomass C sinks from 1977 to 2008. Over the last 30 years, the areal expansion of forests has been a larger contributor to C sinks than forest growth for planted forests in China (62.2 % vs. 37.8 %). However, for natural forests, forest growth has made a larger contribution than areal expansion (60.4 % vs. 39.6 %). For all forests (planted and natural forests), growth in area and density has contributed equally to the total C sinks of forest biomass in China (50.4 % vs. 49.6 %).The relative contribution of forest growth of planted forests showed an increasing trend from an initial 25.3 % to 61.0 % in the later period of 1998 to 2003, but for natural forests, the relative contributions were variable without clear trends, owing to the drastic changes in forest area and biomass density over the last 30 years. Our findings suggest that afforestation will continue to increase the C sink of China's forests in the future, subject to sustainable forest growth after the establishment of plantations.

The accuracy of forest soil C and N estimates is hampered by forest soils that are rocky, inaccessible, and spatially heterogeneous. A composite coring technique is the standard method used in Forest Inventory and Analysis, but its accuracy has been questioned. Quantitative soil pits provide direct measurement of rock content and soil mass from a larger, more representative volume. In this study, the two sampling methods were used to estimate soil C and N stocks in forested plots in the Delaware River Basin. Mean stocks in the whole soil profile (organic and mineral layers, 0–40 cm, using pits) were 76.6 Mg C ha-1 and 4.45 Mg N ha-1. In the surface mineral layer (0–20 cm), lower bulk density (BD), lower coarse fragment content (CF), and greater C concentration (%C) were measured using the core method compared with the pit method. However, because the three variables are not independent and can be counterbalancing, soil C stocks did not differ between sampling methods. Spatial variation in C stocks was mainly driven by the variance of %C and BD in both methods, while the relative contribution of CF was greater in the soil pit method. Our results suggest that the physical problems associated with the core method and the ability of the core method to capture spatial variation in soil C and N stocks are questionable compared with quantitative soil pits. While variability and covariance among the contributing variables resulted in similar stock estimates from both sampling methods, they might accumulate greater uncertainty in spatial extrapolation to regional estimates of forest soil C and N stocks.

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50–100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming.

Large trees are important and unique organisms in forests, providing ecosystem services including carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere and long-term storage. Some reports have raised concerns about the global decline of large trees. Based on observations from two regions in Finland and three regions in the United States we report that trends of large trees during recent decades have been surprisingly variable among regions. In southern Finland, the growing stock volume of trees larger than 30 cm at breast height increased nearly five-fold during the second half of the 20th century, yet more recently ceased to expand. In the United States, large hardwood trees have become increasingly common in the Northeast since the 1950s, while large softwood trees declined until the mid 1990s as a consequence of harvests in the Pacific region, and then rebounded when harvesting there was reduced. We conclude that in the regions studied, the history of land use and forest management governs changes of the diameter-class distributions of tree populations. Large trees have significant benefits; for example, they can constitute a large proportion of the carbon stock and affect greatly the carbon density of forests. Large trees usually have deeper roots and long lifetimes. They affect forest structure and function and provide habitats for other species. An accumulating stock of large trees in existing forests may have negligible direct biophysical effects on climate through transpiration or forest albedo. Understanding changes in the demography of tree populations makes a contribution to estimating the past impact and future potential of forests in the global carbon budget and to assessing other ecosystem services of forests.

The proper estimation of above-ground biomass (AGB) stocks of managed forests is a prerequisite to quantifying their role in climate change mitigation. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatial variability of AGB and its uncertainty between actively managed pine and unmanaged pine-oak reference forests in central Mexico. To investigate the determinants of AGB, we analyzed variables related to forest management, stand structure, topography, and climate. We developed linear (LM), generalized additive (GAM), and Random Forest (RF) empirical models to derive spatially explicit estimates and their uncertainty, and compared them. AGB was strongly influenced by forest management, as LiDAR-derived stand structure and stand age explained 80.9% to 89.8% of its spatial variability. The spatial heterogeneity of AGB varied positively with stand structural complexity and age in the managed forests. The type of predictive model had an impact on estimates of total AGB in our study site, which varied by as much as 19%. AGB densities varied from 0 to 492 &plusmn, 17 Mg ha&minus, 1 and the highest values were predicted by GAM. Uncertainty was not spatially homogeneously distributed and was higher with higher AGB values. Spatially explicit AGB estimates and their association with management and other variables in the study site can assist forest managers in planning thinning and harvesting schedules that would maximize carbon stocks on the landscape while continuing to provide timber and other ecosystem services. Our study represents an advancement toward the development of efficient strategies to spatially estimate AGB stocks and their uncertainty, as the GAM approach was used for the first time with improved results for such a purpose.

Background Forest biodiversity is the foundation of many ecosystem services, and the effect of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning and processes (BEF) has been a central issue in biodiversity studies. Although many hypotheses have been developed to interpret global gradients of biodiversity, there has not been complete agreement on mechanisms controlling biodiversity patterns and distributions. Differences may be due to limited observation data and inconsistencies of spatial scales in analysis. Methods In this study, we take advantage of USDA Forest Service forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data for exploring regional forest biodiversity and BEF in New England forests. The FIA data provide detailed information of sampled plots and trees for the region, including 6000 FIA plots and more than 33,000 individual trees. Biodiversity models were used to analyze the data. Results Tree species diversity increases from the north to the south at a rate about 2–3 species per latitudinal degree. Tree species diversity is better predicted by tree height than forest age or biomass. Very different distribution patterns of two common maple species, sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and red maple (Acer rubrum), highlight the vulnerability of sugar maple and its potential replacement by red maple on New England landscapes. Red maple generally already outperforms sugar maple, and will likely and continuously benefit from a changing climate in New England. Conclusions We conclude that forest structure (height) and resources (biomass) are more likely foundational characteristics supporting biodiversity rather than biodiversity determining forest productivity and/or biomass. The potential replacement of red maple for sugar maple in the New England areas could affect biodiversity and stability of forest ecosystem functioning because sugar maple plays important ecological roles distinct from red maple that are beneficial to other tree species in northern hardwood forests. Such a change may not affect forest resilience in terms of forest productivity and biomass as these are similar in red maple and sugar maple, however, it would almost certainly alter forest structure across the landscape.

Global forests are increasingly affected by land-use change, fragmentation, changing management objectives, and degradation. In this paper we broadly characterize trends in global forest area by intensity of management, and provide an overview of changes in global carbon stocks associated with managed forests. We discuss different interpretations of “management” and highlight some important accounting and analysis issues. The area of global forests has declined by 3% since 1990 but the area of planted forest has increased in all regions of the world and now accounts for almost 7% of global forest land. The area of primary forest, which is typically defined as lacking direct human influence, is about 34% of all forest land according to country reports, but the area is declining especially in South America and Africa because of human-caused habitat fragmentation and degradation. Concurrently, the area of naturally regenerated forest that is not classified as primary forest has declined. As a result of increasing management intensity, the area of unmanaged forest, typically defined as land lacking protected status or a management plan, dropped significantly since 1990 and now comprises only 21% of global forests. There have been significant increases in areas of forest used for non-wood forest products such as protection of soil and water, conservation of biodiversity, and provision of social services. Globally, timber production has been relatively stable since 1990, but increasing areas of forest used for non-wood forest products indicates that harvesting is taking place on a smaller proportion of the total forest area. Based on trends in the area of managed forest and regional studies, it is clear that historical and current forest management has been a very significant determining factor of current carbon stocks. Established forests currently offset about 30% of global emissions of CO 2 from fossil fuel use, and there are mitigation opportunities involving forests that could increase the gross terrestrial C uptake from roughly 4.0 to 6.2 Pg C annually. However, our results suggest that a diversifying use of forest land may have significant consequences for maintaining or increasing the current rate of terrestrial carbon sequestration. In the future, indirect human influences such as increasing atmospheric CO 2 and climate change, along with the direct effects of land management and projected increasing demand for wood biofuel, are likely to become increasingly important elements that influence land management strategies and the role of forests in the global carbon cycle.

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects - bark beetles and defoliators - which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree-insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

Stand age and disturbance data have become more available in recent years and can facilitate modeling studies that integrate and quantify effects of disturbance and nondisturbance factors on carbon dynamics. Since high-quality disturbance and forest age data to support forest dynamic modeling are lacking before 1950, we assumed dynamic equilibrium (carbon neutrality) for the starting conditions of forests with unknown historical disturbance and forest age information. The impacts of this assumption on forest carbon cycle estimation for recent decades have not been systematically examined. In this study, we tested an assumption of disequilibrium conditions for forests with unknown disturbance and age data by randomly assigning ages to them in the model initial year (1900) and analyzed uncertainties for 1951–2010 carbon dynamic simulations compared with the equilibrium assumption. Results show that with the dynamic equilibrium assumption, the total net biome productivity (NBP) of conterminous U.S. forests was 188 ± 60 Tg C yr−1 with 185 ± 56 Tg C yr−1 in living biomass and 3 ± 23 Tg C yr−1 in soil. The C release due to disturbance on average was about 68 ± 55 Tg C yr−1. The disequilibrium assumption causes annual NBP from 1951 to 2010 in conterminous U.S. forests to vary by an average of 13% with the largest impact on the soil carbon component. Uncertainties related to nondisturbance factors have relatively small impacts on NBP estimation (within 10%), while uncertainties related to disturbances cause biases in NBP of 4 to 28%. We conclude that the dynamic equilibrium assumption for the model initialization in 1900 is acceptable for simulating 1951–2010 forest carbon dynamics as long as disturbance and age data are reliable for this later period, although caution should be taken regarding the prior-1950 simulation results because of their greater uncertainties.

Process-based models are a powerful approach to test our understanding of biogeochemical processes, to extrapolate ground survey data from limited plots to the landscape scale, and to simulate the effects of climate change, nitrogen deposition, elevated atmospheric CO2, increasing natural disturbances, and land-use change on ecological processes. However, in most studies, the models are calibrated using ground measurements from only a few sites, though they may be extrapolated to much larger areas. Estimation accuracy can be improved if the models are parameterized using long-term carbon (C) stock data from multiple sites representative of the simulated region. In this study, forest biomass C stocks measured in 61 forested plots located in three research sites in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) were used to modify the PnET-CN model in three ways: (1) Field-measured mortality rates in each forest type were used to parameterize the wood turnover rate; (2) a numerical approach was used to calibrate the relationship between foliage N and maximum photosynthesis rate; and (3) stand age was incorporated into the model as an input variable, which determines the year of the last disturbance. The results showed that these model modifications improved model performance in capturing the spatial variation of forest C dynamics in the DRB forests. The spatial distribution of forest C pools and fluxes in the three sites was mapped using the modified model. The modified model was also used in experimental scenarios, which predicted that 39% of forest C sequestered over the past decade could be attributed to the combined effects of elevated CO2 and N deposition. This study demonstrated an effective method for using long-term biometric measurements of forest biomass C stocks to constrain and improve a process-based ecosystem model at a regional scale. Further research should target improving model parameters that are sensitive to the spatial variation of forest C dynamics.

Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO

The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (ELUCc) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and ELUCc. This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of ELUCc range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901–2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155 ± 50 PgC (1σ Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained ELUCc is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.

The exchange of carbon dioxide is a key measure of ecosystem metabolism and a critical intersection between the terrestrial biosphere and the Earth's climate. Despite the general agreement that the terrestrial ecosystems in North America provide a sizeable carbon sink, the size and distribution of the sink remain uncertain. We use a data-driven approach to upscale eddy covariance flux observations from towers to the continental scale by integrating flux observations, meteorology, stand age, aboveground biomass, and a proxy for canopy nitrogen concentrations from AmeriFlux and Fluxnet-Canada Research Network as well as a variety of satellite data streams from the MODIS sensors. We then use the resulting gridded flux estimates from March 2000 to December 2012 to assess the magnitude, distribution, and interannual variability of carbon fluxes for the U.S. and Canada. The mean annual gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of the U.S. over the period 2001–2012 were 6.84, 5.31, and 1.10 Pg C yr−1, respectively; the mean annual GPP, ER, and NEP of Canada over the same 12-year period were 3.91, 3.26, and 0.60 Pg C yr−1, respectively. The mean nationwide annual NEP of natural ecosystems over the period 2001–2012 was 0.53 Pg C yr−1 for the U.S. and 0.49 Pg C yr−1 for the conterminous U.S. Our estimate of the carbon sink for the conterminous U.S. was almost identical with the estimate of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR). The carbon fluxes exhibited relatively large interannual variability over the study period. The main sources of the interannual variability in carbon fluxes included drought and disturbance. The annual GPP and NEP were strongly related to annual evapotranspiration (ET) for both the U.S. and Canada, showing that the carbon and water cycles were closely coupled. Our gridded flux estimates provided an independent, alternative perspective on ecosystem carbon exchange over North America.

Trees outside forests (TOF) play important roles in national economies, ecosystem services, and international efforts for mitigating climate warming. Detailed assessment of the dynamics of carbon (C) stocks in China's TOF is necessary for fully evaluating the role of the country's trees in the national C cycle. This study is the first to explore the changes in biomass C stocks of China's TOF over the last three decades, using the national forest inventory data in six periods from 1977 to 2008. According to the definition of the forest inventory, China's TOF could be categorized into three groups: woodlands, shrubberies, and trees on non-forest land (including four-side greening trees, defined in the article, and scattered trees). We estimated biomass C stocks of woodlands and trees on non-forest land by using the provincial biomass-volume conversion equations derived from the data of low-canopy forests, and estimated the biomass C stocks of shrubberies using the provincial mean biomass density. Total TOF biomass C stock increased by 62.7% from 823 Tg C (1 Tg = 1012 g) in the initial period of 1977–1981 to 1339 Tg C in the last period of 2004–2008. As a result, China's TOF have accumulated biomass C of 516 Tg during the study period, with 12, 270, and 234 Tg in woodlands, shrubberies, and trees on non-forest land, respectively. The annual biomass C sink of China's TOF averaged 19.1 Tg C yr−1, offsetting 2.1% of the contemporary fossil-fuel CO2 emissions in the country. These estimates are equal to 16.5–20.7% of the contemporary total forest biomass C stock and 27.2% of the total forest biomass C sink in the country, suggesting that TOF are substantial components in China's tree C budget.

Forests are the dominant terrestrial ecosystem on Earth. We review the environmental factors controlling their structure and global distribution and evaluate their current and future trajectory. Adaptations of trees to climate and resource gradients, coupled with disturbances and forest dynamics, create complex geographical patterns in forest assemblages and structures. These patterns are increasingly discernible through new satellite and airborne observation systems, improved forest inventories, and global ecosystem models. Forest biomass is a complex property affected by forest distribution, structure, and ecological processes. Since at least 1990, biomass density has consistently increased in global established forests, despite increasing mortality in some regions, suggesting that a global driver such as elevated CO2 may be enhancing biomass gains. Global forests have also apparently become more dynamic. Advanced information about the structure, distribution, and biomass of the world's forests provides critical ecological insights and opportunities for sustainable forest management and enhancing forest conservation and ecosystem services.

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus improving forest-management (REDD+) is a mechanism to facilitate tropical countries’ participation in climate change mitigation. In this review we focus on the current state of monitoring systems to support implementing REDD+. The main elements of current monitoring systems – Landsat satellites and traditional forest inventories – will continue to be the backbone of many forest-monitoring systems around the world, but new remote-sensing and analytical approaches are addressing monitoring problems specific to the tropics and implementing REDD+. There is increasing recognition of the utility of combining remote sensing with field data using models that integrate information from many sources, which will continue to evolve as new sensors are deployed and as the availability of field data increases.

Atmospheric inversions have become an important tool in quantifying carbon dioxide (CO2) sinks and sources at a variety of spatiotemporal scales, but associated large uncertainties restrain the inversion research community from reaching agreement on many important subjects. We enhanced an atmospheric inversion of the CO2 flux for North America by introducing spatially explicit information on forest stand age for US and Canada as an additional constraint, since forest carbon dynamics are closely related to time since disturbance. To use stand age information in the inversion, we converted stand age into an age factor, and included the covariances between subcontinental regions in the inversion based on the similarity of the age factors. Our inversion results show that, considering age factors, regions with recently disturbed or old forests are often nudged towards carbon sources, while regions with middle-aged productive forests are shifted towards sinks. This conforms to stand age effects observed in flux networks. At the subcontinental level, our inverted carbon fluxes agree well with continuous estimates of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) upscaled from eddy covariance flux data based on MODIS data. Inverted fluxes with the age constraint exhibit stronger correlation to these upscaled NEE estimates than those inverted without the age constraint. While the carbon flux at the continental and subcontinental scales is predominantly determined by atmospheric CO2 observations, the age constraint is shown to have potential to improve the inversion of the carbon flux distribution among subcontinental regions, especially for regions lacking atmospheric CO2 observations.

We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using inventory-based information over North America (NA) for a recent 7-year period (ca. 2000–2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non-fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO2, while accounting for lateral transfers of forest and crop products as well as their eventual emissions. The total NEE estimate of a � 327 ± 252 TgC yr � 1 sink for NA was driven primarily by CO2 uptake in the Forest Lands sector (� 248 TgC yr � 1 ), largely in the Northwest and Southeast regions of the US, and in the Crop Lands sector (� 297 TgC yr � 1 ), predominantly in the Midwest US states. These sinks are counteracted by the carbon source estimated for the Other Lands sector (+218 TgC yr � 1 ), where much of the forest and crop products are assumed to be returned to the atmosphere (through livestock and human consumption). The ecosystems of Mexico are estimated to be a small net source (+18 TgC yr � 1 ) due to land use change between 1993 and 2002. We compare these inventorybased estimates with results from a suite of terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric inversion models, where the mean continental-scale NEE estimate for each ensemble is � 511 TgC yr � 1 and � 931 TgC yr � 1 , respectively. In the modeling approaches, all sectors, including Other Lands, were generally estimated to be a carbon sink, driven in part by assumed CO2 fertilization and/or lack of consideration of carbon sources from disturbances and product emissions. Additional fluxes not measured by the inventories, although highly uncertain, could add an additional � 239 TgC yr � 1 to the inventory-based NA sink estimate, thus suggesting some convergence with the modeling approaches.

International audience; The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4±0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year-1) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3±0.7 Pg C year-1 from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9±0.5 Pg C year-1 partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6±0.5 Pg C year-1. Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1±0.8 Pg C year-1, with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.

Forest disturbances such as harvesting, wildfire and insect infestation are critical ecosystem processes affecting the carbon cycle. Because carbon dynamics are related to time since disturbance, forest stand age that can be used as a surrogate for major clear-cut/fire disturbance information has recently been recognized as an important input to forest carbon cycle models for improving prediction accuracy. In this study, forest disturbances in the USA for the period of ~1990-2000 were mapped using 400+ pairs of re-sampled Landsat TM/ETM scenes in 500m resolution, which were provided by the Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System project. The detected disturbances were then separated into two five-year age groups, facilitated by Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, which was used to calculate the area of forest regeneration for each county in the USA. In this study, a disturbance index (DI) was defined as the ratio of the short wave infrared (SWIR, band 5) to near-infrared (NIR, band 4) reflectance. Forest disturbances were identified through the Normalized Difference of Disturbance Index (NDDI) between circa 2000 and 1990, where a positive NDDI means disturbance and a negative NDDI means regrowth. Axis rotation was performed on the plot between DIs of the two matched Landsat scenes in order to reduce any difference of DIs caused by non-disturbance factors. The threshold of NDDI for each TM/ETM pair was determined by analysis of FIA data. Minor disturbances affecting small areas may be omitted due to the coarse resolution of the aggregated Landsat data, but the major stand-clearing disturbances (clear-cut harvest, fire) are captured. The spatial distribution of the detected disturbed areas was validated by Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire data in four States of the western USA (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and California). Results indicate omission errors of 66.9%. An important application of this remote sensing-based disturbance map is to associate with FIA forest age data for developing a US forest age map. The US forest age map was also combined with the Canadian forest age map to produce a continent-wide forest map, which becomes a remarkable data layer for North America carbon cycle modeling.

Several studies have reported different estimates for forest biomass carbon (C) stocks in China. The discrepancy among these estimates may be largely attributed to the methods used. In this study, we used three methods [mean biomass density method (MBM), mean ratio method (MRM), and continuous biomass expansion factor (BEF) method (abbreviated as CBM)] applied to forest inventory data to estimate China's forest biomass C stocks and their changes from 1984 to 2003. The three methods generated various estimates of the biomass C stocks: the lowest (4.0–5.9 Pg C) from CBM and the highest (5.7–7.7 Pg C) from MBM, with an intermediate estimate (4.2–6.2 Pg C) from MRM. Forest age class is a major factor responsible for these method-induced differences. MBM overestimates biomass for young-aged forests, but underestimates biomass for old-aged forests; while the reverse is true for MRM. Further, the three methods resulted in different estimates of biomass C stocks for different forest types. For temperate/subtropical mixed forests, MBM generated a 92% higher estimate than CBM and MRM generated a 14% lower than CBM. The degree of the overestimates is closely related with the proportion of young-aged forest within total area of each forest type.

The long-term response of total soil organic carbon pools (‘total SOC’, i.e. soil and dead wood) to different harvesting scenarios in even-aged northern hardwood forest stands was evaluated using two soil carbon models, CENTURY and YASSO, that were calibrated with forest plot empirical data in the Green Mountains of Vermont. Overall, 13 different harvesting scenarios that included four levels of aboveground biomass removal (20%, 40%, 60% and 90%) and four different rotation lengths (60 year, 90 year, 120 year, and No Rotation (NR)) were simulated for a 360 year period. Simulations indicate that following an initial post-harvest increase, total SOC decreases for several decades until carbon inputs into the soil pool from the re-growth are greater than losses due to decomposition. At this point total SOC begins to gradually increase until the next harvest. One consequence of this recovery pattern is that between harvests, the size of the SOC pool in a stand may change from −7 to 18% of the pre-harvest pool, depending on the soil pool considered. Over 360 years, the average annual decrease in total SOC depends on the amount of biomass removed, the rotation length, and the soil pool considered. After 360 years a stand undergoing the 90yr-40% scenario will have 15% less total SOC than a non-harvested stand. Long-term declines in total SOC greater than 10% were observed in the 60yr-60%, 60yr-90%, and 90yr-90% scenarios. Long-term declines less than 5% were observed in scenarios with 120 year rotations that remove 60% or less of the aboveground biomass. The long-term decreases simulated here for common management scenarios in this region would require intensive sampling procedures to be detectable.

Terrestrial carbon dynamics have been vastly modified because of changes in atmospheric composition, climate, and land-use. However, few studies provide a complete analysis of the factors and interactions that affect carbon dynamics over a large landscape. This study examines how changes in atmospheric composition (CO2 ,O 3 and N deposition), climate and land-use affected carbon dynamics and sequestration in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests during the 20th century. We modified and applied the PnET-CN model, a well established process-based ecosystem model with a strong foundation of ecosystem knowledge from experimental studies. We validated the model results using the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. Our results suggest that chronic changes in atmospheric chemistry over the past century markedly affected carbon dynamics and sequestration in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests, while climate change only had a minor impact although inter-annual climatic variability had a far more substantial effect. The NPP response to a century of chronic change in atmospheric composition at the regional scale was an increase of 29%, of which, 14% was from elevated CO2, 17% from N deposition, 6% from the interaction between CO2 and N deposition, and minus 8% from tropospheric ozone. Climate change increased NPP by only 4%. Disturbed forests had 6% lower NPP than undisturbed forests after seven decades. Regrowing forests after harvesting and natural disturbances had much greater capacity for sequestering carbon than undisturbed old-growth forests even though the newer forests had slightly lower net primary production (NPP). The modeling results indicated that N deposition was a stronger force than elevated CO2 for increasing NPP and fast turnover tissues, while elevated CO2 favored more sustainable carbon storage and sequestration. The model results are consistent with various experiments and observations and demonstrate a powerful approach to integrate and expand our knowledge of complex interactive effects of multiple environmental changes on forest carbon dynamics.

Forest soils can act as both sinks and sources for atmospheric CO 2 and therefore have an important role in the global carbon cycle. Yet the controls on forest soil organic matter content (SOM) distribution at the scale of operational land management scales within forest types are rarely quantified in detail. To identify factors that influence the spatial distribution and accumulation of SOM in forests, soils and stand composition data from 42 even-aged northern hardwood forest plots were analyzed using multiple linear regression and non-parametric statistical approaches. The analysis included three layers of SOM pools (forest floor, 0–20 cm mineral soil, and 20+ cm mineral soil) over three spatial scales (point, plot and regional). The largest amounts of total SOM (mean = 289, std dev = 70 Mg ha − 1 ) occurred in deep and well drained soils located on gently grading slopes. When soil layers were analyzed separately, the following relationships were observed: 1) highest forest floor SOM occurred under mixed species composition as opposed to stands dominated by sugar maple, 2) highest 0–20 cm mineral SOM occurred at high elevations (greater than 450 m) in moderately well drained soils, and 3) highest 20+ cm mineral SOM also occurred at high elevations and when soils were deeper. Further analysis of 0–20 cm mineral layer revealed that lower rock volume and finer soil texture resulted in higher SOM at a single point. When SOM that was predicted from models based on plot-specific attributes (soils series, slope and aspect) were compared to soil survey SOM estimates, the mean SOM values for both approaches were similar (253 and 269 Mg ha − 1 respectively). Easily identifiable characteristics such as mixed stand composition, the presence of forest floor and E horizon thickness may be used as field indicators of SOM storage. The variety of controls identified in this study should be considered when assessing soil carbon response to management options and future changes in climate.

This study investigated spatial patterns and environmental controls of aboveground biomass (AGB) in alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau by integrating AGB data collected from 135 sites during 2001– 2004 and concurrent enhanced vegetation index derived from MODIS data sets. The AGB was estimated at 68.8 g m �2 , with a larger value (90.8 g m �2 ) in alpine meadow than in alpine steppe (50.1 g m �2 ). It increased with growing season precipitation (GSP), but did not show a significant overall trend with growing season temperature (GST) although it was negatively correlated with GST at dry environments (

Forests play a leading role in regional and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycles. Changes in C sequestration within forests can be attributed to areal expansion (increase in forest area) and forest growth (increase in biomass density). Detailed assessment of the relative contributions of areal expansion and forest growth to C sinks is crucial to reveal the mechanisms that control forest C sinks and is helpful for developing sustainable forest management policies in the face of climate change. Using the Forest Identity concept and forest inventory data, this study quantified the spatial and temporal changes in the relative contributions of forest areal expansion and increased biomass growth to China's forest C sinks from 1977 to 2008. Over the last 30 years, the areal expansion of forests was a larger contributor to C sinks than forest growth for all forests and planted forests in China (74.6 vs. 25.4 % for all forests, and 62.4 vs. 37.8 % for plantations). However, for natural forests, forest growth made a larger contribution than areal expansion (60.4 vs. 39.6 %). The relative contribution of forest growth of planted forests showed an increasing trend from an initial 25.3 to 61.0 % in the later period of 1998 to 2003, but for natural forests, the relative contributions were variable without clear trends owing to the drastic changes in forest area and biomass density over the last 30 years. Our findings suggest that afforestation can continue to increase the C sink of China's forests in the future subject to persistently-increasing forest growth after establishment of plantation.

Much uncertainty in estimating root biomass density (RBD, root mass per unit area) of all roots regionally exists because of methodological difficulties and little knowledge about the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the magnitude and distribution pattern of RBD. In this study, we collected field data of RBD from 22 sites along the Tibetan Alpine Vegetation Transects executed with the same sampling method that covered a relatively undisturbed vegetation gradient from subtropical forests to alpine vegetation. Our field data indicated that RBD significantly decreased with increasing altitudes (r² = 0.60, P < 0.001) but had low or non-robust correlations with aboveground biomass density (r² = 0.10-0.34), suggesting that RBD can be predicted without reference to shoot biomass. The transect data further revealed that temperature and/or precipitation were likely the major limiting factors for geographical distribution patterns of RBD. The relationships could be expressed as logistic function with a maximum RBD of 200 Mg/ha (r² = 0.59-0.65, P < 0.001). A simple empirical model was developed from the logistic regressions and then globally tested against data for 295 field plots of undisurbed to semi-disturbed vegetation ranging from the boreal zone to the tropics. In general, the model explained 80% of the RBD variation for 30 field plots along the North-South Transect of Eastern China (r² = 0.80, P < 0.0001) and less than half of the variation in the global dataset (r² = 0.45, P < 0.0001). The model predictions were strong for temperate evergreen forests, temperate/alpine shrubs and grasslands, boreal tundra, and Mediterranean deserts. Such a global scaling exercise revealed the global distribution pattern of RBD broadly over a range of major biomes, suggesting the possibility to develop a new method for large-scale estimation of root biomass.

We developed a volume-to-biomass method based on age groups representative of forest development stages to estimate live tree biomass, C, and biomass and C accumulation rates of China’s forests between 1973 and 1993. The data were from plot-level forest inventory, national-level inventory statistics, and ecological site studies specified to estimate biomass in different tree components. Our results indicate that carbon storage in China’s forests was 4.34 Pg C in the early 1990s, an increase of 13% since the early 1970s. The annual forest C sequestration rate from the late 1980s to early 1990s was 0.068 Pg C/yr and approximately four- to five-times higher than in the 1970s and 1980s. The large C sink in China’s forests in the early 1990s was likely related to age structure changes that had developed to more productive stages, a consequence of reforestation and afforestation programs from the 1960s. The results were compared with other C store estimates, which were based on the same inventory data. Various methods can produce estimates that differ in the direction of C flux as well as its magnitude. Separating age groups with the volume–biomass method could cause a 27% difference in estimated carbon pools but an 89% difference in C sequestration rates whereas the biomass density method would provide an estimate that differs by 65% in the C pools.