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According to the October issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, warm and dry summer weather followed by a period of abundant, but sometimes excessive rainfall since the end of September, hampered field work in large parts of Europe. These wet conditions at the end of September and October caused delays to the harvesting of summer crops as well as to sowing activities in western and southwestern France, the Benelux, southern Poland, eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. For winter rapeseed, the sowing window has come to an end. For winter cereals, timely completion of the sowing campaign is still possible in the coming weeks. At EU level, the yield forecasts for all summer crops were revised downwards, mostly based on a reanalysis of data since the start of the season, JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the November issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe – favourable weather conditions since mid-October allowed the sowing of winter cereals to catch up in most of Europe. However, sowing activities remain behind in eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Favourable conditions arrived too late for rapeseed sowing in several of the main producing countries, and – at EU level - the area sown is expected to be below last year’s level and the 5-year average., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Yield forecasts for EU summer crops revised further downwards According to the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, at EU level, the yield forecasts for all summer crops were revised downwards, most markedly for Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Overall, the EU-level yield forecast for summer crops is now close to the 5-year average. Severe drought conditions continued in eastern Romania, eastern Bulgaria, and southern Ukraine, with further negative impacts mainly on maize and sunflowers. Drought is now also observed in north-eastern Greece, the country’s main sunflower production region, and a prolonged precipitation deficit has started to impact maize in central Ukraine. In western Europe, the heatwaves reported in August were followed by a drop in temperatures, but a precipitation deficit continued in large parts of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, western Germany and the southern Netherlands, further diminishing the yield expectations for summer crops in these regions (mainly maize, sugar beet and potatoes). In Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom, frequent and abundant precipitation since mid-August negatively affected the ripening and harvesting of spring and winter cereals. Favourable conditions prevailed in central and northern Europe. A surplus of precipitation benefited summer crops in northern Italy, Austria, Slovakia, Czechia, Poland and Belarus., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the March 2020 issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin the 2019/2020 winter was one of the warmest in its records (since 1979). In most regions, mean daily temperature exceeded the long-term-average by 2 °C to 4 °C. Even higher temperature anomalies prevailed in eastern and northern Europe. As a consequence of the mild winter, winter crops in central, eastern and northern Europe are generally in good condition. Warmer-than-usual weather is promoting early spring re-growth,with potential yield benefits. Downsides attached to the mild winter are that increased pest and disease pressure can be expected later in spring, and that early developed crops — and especially fruit trees — might be more vulnerable to spring frost events. Significant lack of precipitation has been observed in the main durum wheat producing regions (southern Italy, large parts of Spain, Greece), as well as in large parts of southern and eastern Romania, northern Bulgaria and in the Maghreb region. However, in most of these regions, sufficient rain is forecast to avoid imminent impact on crop yield potentials. Excessive wetness in north-western Europe In contrast, important grain producing regions in north-western Europe (France, Benelux countries, Germany, United Kingdom) faced excessively wet conditions, especially in February and the beginning of March. In these regions, winter crops often did not yet establish well and necessary field operations were hampered. Spring crops sowings are also delayed in these regions and the more settled weather forecast for the second half of March may not be sufficient to allow field operations to fully catch up. In this issue, a first estimate is also given of crop yield forecasts at national level, which at this early stage of the season are mostly based on an analysis of historical trends., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The July issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe – reports that the recent near-average weather conditions, with well-distributed rainfall and relatively few hot spells, have been favourable to crops in many parts of Europe. However, extreme weather events in much of central Europe, south-western Finland and southern Russia had significant negative impacts, mostly on winter crops. The predominantly favourable weather conditions contributed to an improved yield outlook in several regions. Compared to the yield forecasts presented in the June issue of the Bulletin, the strongest upward revision at EU level was for spring barley (+6.4%), reflecting improved or continued favourable conditions in almost all major producing countries. However, the forecast for winter wheat was slightly revised further downwards. This was mainly due to the sharp downward revisions of the yield forecast in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary associated with a very unfavourable season worsened by heavy rain around ripening which outweighed the slight upward revisions in most other countries. For most other winter crops and summer crops, the balance was slightly positive. The yield forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers remain well above the 5-year average, reflecting a sustained positive outlook in all of the main producing countries., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the October issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, farmers in many parts of Europe had trouble harvesting summer crops and sowing the winter crops for next year’s season, either because it was too dry or because it was too wet. Rapeseed sowing activities were particularly affected. Frequent and abundant rainfall hampered the harvesting of summer crops in the British Isles, part of the Benelux countries, northern Germany, Denmark and southern Sweden. In these regions, sugar beet, potatoes and green maize crops are the most affected. The winter sowing campaign also faced delays in these regions. Dry conditions hampered the sowing of winter crops in northern France, Germany, north-eastern Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Spain as well as in western Ukraine. In most of these regions, rain arrived too late to complete the sowing of rapeseed within the optimal window, which is likely to result in a reduced rapeseed area. The sowing window for winter cereals is still open, but more rain will be needed in most of these regions to sustain adequate stand formation. Once again, the yield forecasts for summer crops were revised slightly downward., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to this May issue of the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, the yield forecasts for almost all crops were revised downwards at the EU level, and most markedly for rapeseed, winter barley and winter wheat. In the case of spring barley, an upward revision of the yield forecast in Spain counterbalanced the downward revision in other countries. As the summer crop season has just started, most of the country-level yield forecasts for summer crops are still based on historical trends or average values. In much of western, central and eastern Europe, weather conditions were similar to those reported in the April Bulletin: predominantly above-average temperatures, high radiation levels, and insufficient precipitation to replenish soil moisture levels for the growth of winter and early-sown spring crops. Little or no rain is forecast for the coming days in most of these regions, where winter cereals are approaching the sensitive flowering stage. In the case of rapeseed, the conditions of water stress already experienced partially coincided with the flowering and/or early grain filling stage. In eastern Romania and western Ukraine, crops are stunted and present signs of wilting and early leaf senescence. Rainfall since the end of April facilitated the sowing and emergence of late-planted spring crops and summer crops in these regions, alleviating the difficulties caused by very dry top soils (as mentioned in the April issue of the Bulletin). However, many emerging crops present uneven or patchy stands due to the previous dry conditions, and will require more rainfall to adequately sustain growth. In contrast, a favourable rainfall surplus was observed in western and eastern Mediterranean countries. Favourable weather conditions also prevailed in northern Europe and the Atlantic region. Rainfall in the Maghreb region occurred too late in the season to be beneficial for winter crops., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to this June issue of the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, the yield forecasts for EU winter crops, (mainly wheat, barley and rapeseed) were revised downwards by around 2% compared to May, mainly because of sharp downward revisions for France, Romania and the Benelux countries. The yield outlook for winter crops is now clearly below the 5-year average. A main reason for the poor outlook for winter cereals is a distinct rain deficit that persisted in much of north-western Europe as well as in Hungary and eastern Romania. Recent rains in several of the regions affected arrived too late to improve this negative outlook. Improved outlook for grain maize and sunflowers In contrast, the yield forecasts for EU summer crops such as grain maize and sunflowers were revised upwards, mainly because of the timely arrival of rains in May and June which helped improve the outlook - or to sustain an already positive outlook - for these crops in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Spain. The forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers are currently well above the 5-year average. The yield outlook for spring barley slightly improved at the EU level, due to an upward revision for Spain which outweighed the downward revisions for France, Poland, Germany and several other countries., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the April 2020 issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, western Europe experienced one of the driest starts to spring since 1979, after an exceptionally wet winter. Large parts of Poland, Ukraine and Romania have also faced dry conditions since the end of winter. Winter crops in most of these regions are still in good condition, but more rain is needed to sustain a positive yield outlook. However, the very dry upper soil layers are having a negative impact on the sowing and emergence of spring and summer crops. Cold spells at the end of March and beginning of April challenged sowing and emergence in much of central and south-eastern Europe. A marked rainfall surplus was welcomed in the Iberian Peninsula, Greece, Cyprus and south-eastern Turkey. While labour availability remains a key concern, we have found no evidence that COVID-19 has had any major impact on the sowing of spring and summer crops. So far, the supply of seed, fertiliser and pesticides seems to be adequate and no immediate disruptions are expected. The yield forecast presented in this issue of the MARS bulletin are still mostly based on historical trends. It is acknowledged that they bear a large margin of uncertainty associated with the rain deficit currently faced in large parts of Europe. Increasingly accurate forecasts can be expected as the season unfolds., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The yield forecasts for almost all summer crops in the EU were revised downwards from the July forecast, but remain above or near the 5-year average. Compared to the figures reported in July, the main downward revisions occurred for summer crops in France, Romania, Bulgaria, Germany, the Benelux countries and Poland. By contrast, the yield forecast for soybeans was revised upwards, as very favourable conditions prevailed in northern Italy and Hungary. Large parts of western and northern central Europe have been affected by a rain deficit since the beginning of July. Temperatures increased in these regions at the end of July, and a heatwave of seven to ten consecutive days occurred in the first half of August. The combination of limited water supply and high temperatures negatively affected summer crops, with expected reductions in yields. In southern Ukraine and eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria, the return of drought conditions negatively impacted summer crops, leading to the early senescence of maize and sunflower crops. In contrast, summer crops benefited from a surplus of precipitation in many other parts of central Europe, eastern Italy, and western Romania., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The yield forecast for grain maize has fallen by almost 2%, but this is still above the 5-year average for the EU as a whole. Forecasts are distinctly below the 5-year average for most western and northern-central European countries; well above-average yields are expected for southern-central and south-eastern Europe, particularly for Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. Yield forecasts for sugar beet, potatoes and green maize, which were already below the 5-year average at EU level, have been revised further downwards. The productivity of pastures in northern, central and western Europe has also been negatively impacted. The yield outlook for sunflowers remains firmly above the 5-year average. Forecasts for winter crops and spring cereals essentially remained the same. The season has closed in most regions, and crops have been harvested under adequate weather conditions., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, hot and regionally dry conditions negatively impacted the final part of the - hitherto very positive - summer crops growing season in south-eastern Europe. This, combined with continued challenging conditions in large parts of central and western Europe, has resulted in an overall mediocre yield outlook for summer crops at EU level. The yield forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers have both fallen by approximately 4%. The grain maize yield forecast is now practically at the 5-year average. Sunflowers are the only summer crop addressed in the Bulletin that still has a positive yield outlook at EU level, above the 5-year average. This issue of the Bulletin features a special section on rice, for which the EU outlook is average., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Winter crops are advanced and in good shape in most of Europe, following a mild winter. Cold spells have been rare and have not caused significant damage. Large parts of southern Europe experienced a precipitation deficit; more rain will be needed there to sustain good crop growth., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The November issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, published today, presents wetter-than-usual conditions in large parts of northern and western Europe for October and early November, while in the south east dry and warm weather persisted. Frequent and abundant rainfall continued to delay field operations in France, Italy, Benelux countries, the British Isles, northern Germany, and southern Sweden over the period of review (1 October to 20 November 2019). Rainfall was particularly intense in southern France and northern and central Italy. While the sowing campaign of winter cereals has been practically completed in central Europe, some obstacles to sowing, emergence, and crop establishment in the field remain in the overly wet regions of western and northern Europe, as well as in Italy. In Spain, Portugal and Greece, sowing has progressed fairly well. By contrast, the central Balkan region, large parts of Turkey and Ukraine, the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula, and western Morocco experienced a lack of rainfall, with less than half the long-term average recorded. Eastern and south-eastern Europe were also affected by extraordinarily warm weather. These conditions hampered sowing and continue to affect crop establishment in southern Romania and northern Bulgaria., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Above-average rainfall in Italy, south-eastern Europe and south-eastern parts of the Iberian Peninsula instigated the replenishment of soil moisture reserves, which in several regions had been critically low, with substantial benefits for winter crops and the early development of spring- and summer crops. Large parts of northern-central Europe experienced a marked rainfall deficit since mid-March. April was particularly dry in these regions. Winter crops are negatively affected in northern Poland, eastern and north-eastern Germany and north-western Czechia, especially those on light sandy soils. Emerging spring and summer crops were also impacted. On balance, the improvements to the yield outlook for winter cereals in southern Europe were largely offset by reduced yield forecasts in northern regions, resulting in a slight upward revision at the EU level. The distinctly colder-than-usual conditions that occurred in large parts of Europe in early May slowed down winter crop development, but frost damage to annual crops (such as flowering rapeseed stands) was limited to local occurrences., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Beneficial rainfall in northern and northern-central Europe contributed to an improved outlook in regions that experienced a dry spell in April. Abundant rainfall in Italy, and southern central and eastern Europe also provided benefits in terms of improved water supply. However, this wet weather combined with below average temperatures, hampering summer crop growth in large parts of these regions. In contrast, hot and dry conditions in the Iberian Peninsula, reduced yield expectations for the main winter crops and spring barley. Moreover, water reservoirs are at below-average fill levels, which could possibly lead to restrictions on water use for irrigation of summer crops later in the season. At EU level, the overall yield outlook for cereals slightly improved comparing to our previous forecast in May. Grain maize and sunflower yield expectations are distinctly above the five-year average, reflecting the favourable conditions in large parts of south-eastern Europe., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The overall yield outlook for cereals at EU level slightly decreased due to the impact of the June heatwave that affected large parts of Europe, resulting in a limited downward revision of forecasts for soft wheat, spring barley, rye, and triticale. Forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers were revised upwards due to the favourable conditions in southern-central and south-eastern Europe continuing. This positive outlook for summer crops in south-eastern Europe contrasts with the unfavourable conditions faced in large parts of Austria, Germany, Czechia, the Benelux countries, and France. Soil moisture levels in these regions are low and the rise in temperature and absence of rain forecast for the coming days will aggravate this situation., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Frost damage remains limited despite end-of-winter cold spell, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Harvesting of root and tuber crops also affected In large parts of central Europe, persistently dry soil conditions, complicated field preparations and sowing operations, and limited plant emergence and early crop development. Rapeseed areas in Germany, eastern Poland and northern Czechia are expected to be significantly reduced. Soft wheat can still be (re)sown in some countries. Favourable conditions for the sowing and emergence of winter crops prevailed in most parts of western and northern Europe., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Rapeseed sowing and emergence seriously impacted, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Rapeseed outlook revised downwards, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Water stress, associated with exceptionally dry and warmer-than-usual conditions, affected the flowering and/or grain filling of winter crops and spring cereals in large regions of northern-central and northern Europe. Grain maize and sunflower crops benefited from abundant rain in southern Europe., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Grain maize still positive due to good performance in south-eastern Europe, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Partial pasture recovery in northern Europe, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Exceptionally warm in the north and east; wet in the south, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Winter crops generally faring well, JRC.D.5-Food Security

170 Simulations with the LISFLOOD water resources for 30-year periods with various combinations of land use change and climate change have been evaluated for their impact on the water-food-energy-environment nexus in the Sava river basin. For the Sava river basin, we found in this study that more intense irrigated agriculture does have the potential to increase crop yields considerably, but there are not sufficient water resources available to realise this. Also, if irrigation would be increased drastically, other sectors would be negatively influenced, such as the energy sector (reduced cooling water availability, potentially less water at times produce hydropower), navigation (more frequent and lower low-flows), and the environment (breaches of environmental or minimum flow conditions). Effects on water resources would be more significant with increased irrigation to increase the crop yield of e.g maize. This would lead to an increase in water demand from 2216 Mm3/year to 3337 Mm3/year. Overall water demand in the Sava basin would further increase to around 6000 Mm3/year if we combine both increased irrigation and climate projections until 2100. The average simulated maize yield could increase from 5.7 tons/ha at present conditions to 9.9 tons/ha in case of increased and optimum irrigation. These substantial increases in irrigation, which would lead to substantial crop yield increases as well, would lead to water scarcity in parts of the Sava basin. Also, there just is not sufficient water to irrigate all areas which are water-limited for crop growth. Existing irrigation plans and irrigating the areas which were previously equipped for irrigation (according to FAO) seems more feasible from a water resources perspective. Flood peaks are projected to remain unchanged as a consequence of projected land use changes until 2050 for the Sava basin. However, with climate change projections we do simulate an overall increase in the flood peaks with 13% for the 2011-2040 period and a 23% increase for the 2071-2100 period. River low-flows decrease moderately for the 2011-2040 scenarios. For the end of the century 2071-2100, lowflow values are projected to moderately increase as compared to the control 1981-2010 climate. Excessive irrigation would result in a severe decrease of the lowflow discharges with 50-60%. As for ecological flows, similar observations can be made. Navigation in the main Sava river may be affected by these trends. Water availability for energy production - hydropower and cooling water for thermal and nuclear power stations – is projected to decrease by an average of 3.3% for 2030 under RCP4.5, whereas RCP8.5 would result in a 1.3% increase. End of the century simulations yield a 17.6% higher Q50 for RCP4.5 and 23.1% higher for RCP8.5. Excessive irrigation could affect the water availability for power production, especially for cooling thermal power stations. Hydropower reservoirs could be turned into multi-functional reservoirs, also serving downstream irrigation needs and flood control, and thus serve multiple purposes., JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resources