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The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

A new calving algorithm is developed in the glacier model Elmer/Ice that allows unrestricted calving and terminus advance in 3D. The algorithm uses the meshing software Mmg to implement anisotropic remeshing and allow mesh adaptation at each time step. The development of the algorithm, along with the implementation of the crevasse depth law, produces a new full-Stokes calving model capable of simulating calving and terminus advance across an array of complex geometries. Using a synthetic tidewater glacier geometry, the model is tested to highlight the numerical model parameters that can alter calving when using the crevasse depth law. For a system with no clear attractor at a pinning point, the model time step and mesh resolution are shown to alter the simulated calving. In particular, the vertical mesh resolution has a large impact, increasing calving, as the frontal bending stresses are better resolved. However, when the system has a strong attractor, provided by basal pinning points, numerical model parameters have a limited effect on the terminus evolution. Conversely, transient systems with no clear attractors are highly influenced by the choice of numerical model parameters. The new algorithm is capable of implementing unlimited terminus advance and retreat, as well as unrestricted calving geometries, applying any vertically varying melt distribution to the front for use in conjunction with any calving law or potentially advecting variables downstream. In overcoming previous technical hurdles, the algorithm opens up the opportunity to improve both our understanding of the physical processes and our ability to predict calving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Wordie Ice Shelf-Fleming Glacier system in the southern Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a long-term retreat and disintegration of its ice shelf in the past 50 years. Increases in the glacier velocity and dynamic thinning have been observed over the past two decades, especially after 2008 when only a small ice shelf remained at the Fleming Glacier front. It is important to know whether the substantial further speed-up and greater surface draw-down of the glacier since 2008 is a direct response to ocean forcing, or driven by feedbacks within the grounded marine-based glacier system, or both. Recent observational studies have suggested the 2008-2015 velocity change was due to the ungrounding of the Fleming Glacier front. To explore the mechanisms underlying the recent changes, we use a full-Stokes ice sheet model to simulate the basal shear stress distribution of the Fleming system in 2008 and 2015. This study is part of the first high resolution modelling campaign of this system. Comparison of inversions for basal shear stresses for 2008 and 2015 suggests the migration of the grounding line ĝ1/4 9 km upstream by 2015 from the 2008 ice front/grounding line positions, which virtually coincided with the 1996 grounding line position. This migration is consistent with the change in floating area deduced from the calculated height above buoyancy in 2015. The retrograde submarine bed underneath the lowest part of the Fleming Glacier may have promoted retreat of the grounding line. Grounding line retreat may also be enhanced by a feedback mechanism upstream of the grounding line by which increased basal lubrication due to increasing frictional heating enhances sliding and thinning. Improved knowledge of bed topography near the grounding line and further transient simulations with oceanic forcing are required to accurately predict the future movement of the Fleming Glacier system grounding line and better understand its ice dynamics and future contribution to sea level..

Many glaciers in the Antarctic Peninsula are now rapidly losing mass. Understanding of the dynamics of these fast-flowing glaciers, and their potential future behaviour, can be improved through ice sheet modelling studies. Inverse methods are commonly used in ice sheet models to infer the spatial distribution of a basal friction coefficient, which has a large effect on the basal velocity and ice deformation. Here we use the full-Stokes Elmer/Ice model to simulate the Wordie Ice Shelf-Fleming Glacier system in the southern Antarctic Peninsula. With an inverse method, we infer the pattern of the basal friction coefficient from surface velocities observed in 2008. We propose a multi-cycle spin-up scheme to reduce the influence of the assumed initial englacial temperature field on the final inversion. This is particularly important for glaciers like the Fleming Glacier, which have areas of strongly temperature-dependent deformational flow in the fast-flowing regions. Sensitivity tests using various bed elevation datasets, ice front positions and boundary conditions demonstrate the importance of high-accuracy ice thickness/bed geometry data and precise location of the ice front boundary..

Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models able to simulate grounding-line migration. We present results of an intercomparison experiment for plan-view marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no buttressing effects from lateral drag). Perturbation experiments specifying spatial variation in basal sliding parameters permitted the evolution of curved grounding lines, generating buttressing effects. The experiments showed regions of compression and extensional flow across the grounding line, thereby invalidating the boundary layer theory. Steady-state grounding-line positions were found to be dependent on the level of physical model approximation. Resolving grounding lines requires inclusion of membrane stresses, a sufficiently small grid size (

This paper concerns a numerical stabilization method for free-surface ice flow called the free-surface stabilization algorithm (FSSA). In the current study, the FSSA is implemented into the numerical ice-flow software Elmer/Ice and tested on synthetic two-dimensional (2D) glaciers, as well as on the real-world glacier of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard. For the synthetic 2D cases it is found that the FSSA method increases the largest stable time-step size at least by a factor of ten for the case of a gently sloping ice surface (3°), and by at least a factor of five for cases of moderately to steeply inclined surfaces (6° to 12°). Furthermore, the FSSA method increases the overall accuracy for all surface slopes. The largest stable time-step size is found to be smallest for the case of a low sloping surface, despite having overall smaller velocities. For Midtre Lovénbreen the FSSA method doubles the largest stable time-step size, however, the accuracy is in this case slightly lowered in the deeper parts of the glacier, while it increases near edges. The implication is that the non-FSSA method might be more accurate at predicting glacier thinning, while the FSSA method is more suitable for predicting future glacier extent. A possible application of the larger time-step sizes allowed for by the FSSA is for spin-up simulations, where relatively fast changing climate data can be incorporated on short time scales, while the slowly changing velocity field is updated over larger time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]