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This paper looks at the transition of workers in the MENA region between formal and informal jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic, and investigates whether trade policy could be adopted as a measure to enhance the transition of workers from the informal to the formal sector. We use the combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey constructed by the Economic Research Forum for 5 MENA countries and 11 sectors. This topic is timely and critical for the MENA region where informal employment is widespread, applied tariffs are still high, and female labor participation is low. Our results show that: first, fewer trade restrictions are associated with an increased probability for the worker to become formal and this effect is more pronounced post-pandemic. Second, fewer trade restrictions are linked to an increase in the probability of becoming formal for blue collars only, with an insignificant effect on white collars. Third, fewer trade restrictions are associated with an increase in the probability of men to become formal, with an insignificant effect on women. Finally, the effect of trade policy on job formality depends on the sectoral occupation of the individual with this effect being more pronounced in agriculture and manufacturing relatively to services sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 outbreak has had severe economic consequences across the globe. The crisis emanating from the pandemic has caused demand and supply side shocks, more far reaching than any crisis in living memory. We use a new data set from the 2020/21 Egyptian Industrial Firm Behavior Survey to examine determinants of firms' resilience during the pandemic. Crisis present the opportunity for what Schumpeter (In Economics of the Recovery Program, McGraw-Hill, 1934) calls creative destruction. Have manufacturing firms been all hit by the crisis equally, or were less efficient firms more likely to exit or downsize their activities thereby 'cleansing' the market? Two sets of factors affect firm dynamics and survival: (1) firms' innate characteristics and; (2) firm behavior, which captures the extent to which good management, innovation, the adoption of advanced technologies and worker training, have provided an opportunity for firms to adapt their business models and show greater resilience in coping with the crisis. We illustrate the vulnerability of private, smaller, informal firms and those that are not located in industrial zones. Second, pre-COVID behavioral characteristics matter for firm dynamics. The food sector and sectors identified as 'COVID sectors' show more resilience. Some behavioral traits vary by sector and are more influential depending on firm size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic saw two sets of policy responses: lockdown to limit spread of the virus, which was a huge demand and supply shock, and government support to firms and individuals to offset the effects of this policy-induced shock. This paper explores the allocation and effectiveness of government support to firms in Egypt. We consider both financial support measures which were by and large already being implemented pre-COVID, as well as tax- and loan-related exemptions and deferments. After controlling for the endogeneity of government support, our main findings show that the latter has helped mitigate the effects of COVID-19, with a significantly larger, favorable impact on smaller, younger and private firms. There is no equity-effectiveness trade-off. However, although these firms apparently make better use of government support, they receive a disproportionately smaller share of it. In line with the emerging 'unsocial' social contract, government support has been chiefly determined by political connections and a captured industrial policy. This 'misallocation' reinforces the 'missing middle' phenomenon which acts as a constraint as SMEs are unable to grow. Nevertheless, the crisis has presented a chance for the pattern of support to slowly shift towards the more vulnerable through the more frequent use of 'exemptions and deferments'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several emerging economies have embarked on structural adjustment reform programs that focused more on short-run-oriented stabilization reforms. Yet, longer-term structural policies that can shift their potential GDP were not fully taken into consideration. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we contrast the effects of stabilization and allocation policies in order to examine to what extent they complement or substitute each other. Second, we analyze how the effects of such policies can differ in the short and long term and with different market structures (perfect vs. imperfect competition). Third, we develop a CGE model for Egypt that was subject to a recent reform program developed with the IMF. Our main findings show that stabilization reforms reduce economic growth by 2.5% in the short run. Yet, they positively affect it over time especially if they are accompanied by structural reforms. Indeed, the latter increase economic growth (of 8.6% in the long run). Furthermore, from a social perspective, stabilization reform deteriorates households' welfare in the short run. Finally, we find that negative effects of stabilization and structural reforms are more pronounced under imperfect competition pointing out the importance of an effective competition policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using bilateral trade and aid for trade (AfT) data for a sample of 155 countries over the period 2002-2019, we implement a gravity analysis to assess whether bilateral aggregate AfT and various AfT categories have stimulated exports of AfT-recipient countries to donors, and to examine if the institutional distance between recipients and donor countries affected the efficacy of AfT in promoting the former's bilateral exports. We show that AfT flows tend to foster exports of recipients, both at the extensive margin and intensive margin. Moreover, the trade-stimulating effect of AfT for trade policy and regulation is more pronounced than that of other AfT flows. Finally, institutional disparities between trading partners dampen the effectiveness of AfT in promoting exports at both margins of trade; and certain regions and income-based groups have managed to benefit more than others from AfT. Increasing the amount of disbursed aid flows is likely to speed-up the insertion of developing countries into world markets; strengthening governance in AfT-beneficiary countries and closing their institutional gap with donors would enhance the effect of AfT on their exports; and tying AfT flows to governance-related reforms in recipients can be an option to consider by donors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the contribution of female labor participation as well female ownership/management to trade margins using firm-level data for 18 manufacturing and services sectors in eight MENA countries for 2013. This topic is innovative, and critical for the MENA region where female participation in the export sector is shy, at a time the region is looking for new sources of competitiveness to boost its exports. Our results show that first, female labor participation has a positive a significant impact on both the probability of export and export volume, with the effect being independent of the size of the firm. Female labor participation matters in traditional sectors where the MENA region has a comparative advantage. Second, while the effect of female ownership or management is not significant on trade margins, female management/ownership exerts a positive effect on the probability of large firms to export. This positive effect is mainly driven by female ownership and not management, and thus sheds light on the potential importance of female empowerment in international trade. Third, the effect of some regulatory barriers on exports is more pronounced for a female-owned/managed firm, with respect to a men-owned/managed firm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the effect of trade liberalisation on informal employment in Egypt. The effect of trade liberalisation on the informal sector has been widely discussed at both empirical and public policy levels but was never tested empirically in Egypt. Thus, combining a microeconomic data set (the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey) with macroeconomic variables (tariffs), we try to assess to what extent trade reforms affected informal workers in Egypt. Our main findings show that trade liberalisation has reduced informal employment in Egypt. Such results remain unchanged under different robust testings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article evaluates the effect of different aspects of trade facilitation in developed and developing countries on bilateral trade through an augmented gravity model and uses the latter to estimate ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of administrative barriers to trade. The results show that a multitude of trade facilitation variables including internet, bureaucracy, corruption and geography affect the transaction times to import and to export. However, the time to import has a higher negative impact on trade when compared with the time to export. Another important finding is that both facilitation and liberalization of trade are complements rather than substitutes. Finally, when sectoral characteristics are taken into account, some perishable, seasonal and high-value-added products appear to be more sensitive to transaction time than other products. These results are also confirmed by the values of the AVEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to introduce trade facilitation aspects. The contributions are twofold on both the theoretical and empirical levels. First, it attempts to explicitly model trade facilitation in two alternative ways. On the one hand, trade facilitation is considered as a pure deadweight loss and, on the other hand, as a rent-generating process that takes corruption into account. Concerning the empirical side, the tariff equivalent of red tape and related procedures are being estimated, not assumed, at the sectoral level in a companion paper and are introduced in the CGE model. The Exter model is modified and calibrated on the Egyptian social accounting matrix of 2000/2001. The results show that trade facilitation boosts exports, imports and welfare in a significant way. Yet, when the cost and the tariff equivalent effect of trade facilitation are jointly modelled, the impact of such a process is reduced. Moreover, some sectors like processed food, garments, chemicals and high value-added products witness a significant expansion more than others. When the welfare gains coming from corruption are taken into account, the elimination of administrative barriers to trade is associated with lower, though positive, gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We investigate how GVC participation and centrality in the intermediate trade network are associated with firms' productivity in the MENA countries. • Using several measures of GVCs, we show that firms in GVCs are more productive. • Multi-level estimations show that country-sector intermediate trade network centrality is also positively associated with firms' productivity. • Results are confirmed using propensity score matching and shift-share instrumental variable approach. Global Value Chain (GVC) participation is typically associated with a productivity premium, yet similar firms can benefit differently depending on the possibility for creating production linkages offered by their countries' involvement in trade. We show that country-sector intermediate trade network centrality is also positively associated with firms' productivity, suggesting that the connectivity of the business environment may enhance productivity on top of direct firm-level involvement in GVCs. For a large cross-section of MENA countries included in the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES), we find evidence of productivity premia using several firm-level GVC participation measures and network centrality indicators constructed from the EORA input-output tables. Centrality is also positively associated with firms' productivity, adding to the direct effect of GVC participation. Our results are confirmed using OLS, multi-level models, Propensity Score Matching techniques, and a Shift-Share instrumental variable approach which help addressing endogeneity issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a comprehensive assessment of the effect of different trade barriers (tariffs, non-tariff measures and services restrictions) on wage disparities in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We look at wage disparities from three dimensions: industry premia, gender-based and skill-based disparities. We use three Labor Market Surveys for Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia to directly assess the effect of trade policy on wage disparities using the human capital model. To which different trade barriers are added. Our results suggest that, in general, the effect of services restrictions and non-tariff measures is much stronger than that of tariffs on wage premium. When we look at different segments, we found that females are more affected by non-tariff measures than their male counterparts. At the skill level, given the abundancy of blue collars in the MENA region, production workers are less affected by both non-tariff measures and by services restrictions than non-production workers but more affected by tariffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assets managed by sovereign wealth funds (SWF) have grown nine-fold since 2002, reaching USD 8 trillion in 2018. Around 80% of these investments correspond to cross-border investments. SWFs of Arab countries, mainly oil-rich GCC economies, hold a sizable fraction of these funds (40%). Asset allocation, nevertheless, presents a significant anomaly: despite the presence of highly endowed Arab-owned SWFs, cross-border investment in Arab economies is negligible in terms of transactions as well as of value. We study the allocation decisions of SWFs, both in terms of the probability of investing abroad (extensive margin) as well as the level of investment (intensive margin). In particular, we ask whether SWF investment decisions, at both margins, are largely determined by economic factors – e.g. profitability and risk – or are also influenced by strategic considerations, such as geopolitical interests. Our findings show that, while foreign investors have a positive bias for the Arab destination countries at the extensive margin level, there is a negative bias against them at the intensive one. At the sectoral level, results are highly heterogeneous as some sectors are sensitive to institutions (e.g. industry and consumer discretionary), while others are insensitive, such as energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]