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Even when controlling for big versus small government philosophies, this paper reports quantitatively significant cleavages in the probabilities of supporting increased federal antipoverty efforts that persist between conservatives and liberals, and Republicans and Democrats. However, predicted conditional probabilities show that support for increased welfare spending or federal responsibility in raising the standard of living of the poor is not overwhelming, even among liberals and Democrats, although support for increased federal assistance to the poor is fairly strong, even among conservatives and Republicans. Hence, we consider assertions that conservatives and Republicans do not care about the poor to be extreme and unsupported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past studies establish that general education and scientific knowledge foster more favorable public attitudes toward scientists and scientific research. They also highlight important attitudinal impacts of group identities, in particular, political ideology, party affiliation, religion, and race. The primary purpose of this paper is to determine whether and how these identities might moderate the effects of general education and scientific knowledge on public attitudes toward scientists and scientific research. Main findings include effects of education and scientific knowledge remain significant to varying degrees but are not uniformly generalizable across different group identities; attitudes toward scientists and scientific research have remained fairly stable since 2006; and to love science and hate scientists is not confined to political conservatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the effects of political ideology and party affiliation on support for more government spending on environmental protection. Pooled‐sample results show that Liberals (Democrats) are more likely to support higher government spending on environmental protection than Moderates (Independents), who, in turn, are more likely to support higher spending levels than Conservatives (Republicans). The results persist even when we control for respondents' opinions concerning whether the federal government, in general, does too little or too much. When stratifying by party, ideological divisions generally narrow, while stratifying by ideology leads to slightly wider divisions between Democrats and Republicans. Together, these results suggest that when Liberals and Conservatives form opinions about government spending on the environment, party affiliation, to some degree, dampens the effects of ideology. Between 2014 and 2018 the probability of supporting more environmental spending increased, albeit slightly, for all ideologies and parties, but more so for Liberals and Democrats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using pooled data from the General Social Surveys, we estimated a bivariate ordered probit model of support for legalized elective- and traumatic- based abortions. Unlike past literature, we treat religiosity (practice and salience), religious orthodoxy, political ideology, and party identification as endogenous regressors. Religious orthodoxy is found to reduce the probability of supporting legalized abortions while religiosity increases it. Increases in political conservatism reduce the probability of supporting legalized abortions by substantial amounts. Surprisingly, movement along the party identification spectrum from strong Democrat to strong Republican increases the likelihood of supporting legalized abortion, likely reflecting the greater importance attached to limited government and the preservation of individual freedoms, after controlling for religious orthodoxy and self-placement along the liberal conservative dimension. Quantitatively, however, the negative impacts of increased political conservatism are dominant [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. The effects of religiosity and sociodemographic characteristics on support for same-sex marriage (SSM) are estimated. Methods. An ordered probability model with ordinal endogenous treatment is estimated. Treatment effects of religiosity and marginal effects of other covariates are calculated. Results. Religiosity reduces the likelihood of SSM support. This impact can be attenuated by educational achievement, Democratic Party affiliation, higher incomes, and greater contact with gays and lesbians. The importance of religion has no differential impact on the marginal effects of other covariates. Conclusions. We expect the litigation of cases in which gay married couples allege victimization from some form of discrimination, which, in turn, will be defended on the grounds of religious freedom. Religious freedom supporters will come from the intrinsically religious, evangelicals, strong Republicans, and African Americans; same-sex couples will draw support from those who are more educated, strongly Democratic, and at the higher end of the income distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper hypothesizes that if day-ahead markets for electricity are efficient, then the day-ahead prices will reflect the processed information and expectations of all market participants regarding the next day's electricity load and thus the prices may be useful in actually predicting the next day's load. We test this hypothesis using data for the PG&E aggregation area in the California ISO. The results provide evidence of a positive and significant relationship between the hourly day-ahead electricity price (relative to the natural gas price) and the subsequent actual hourly load. The reported relationship is sufficiently robust to produce a forecast based on the day-ahead hourly price relative to the price of natural gas, some binary variables, and a number of estimated ARMA disturbances that is considerably more accurate than the ISO's day-ahead forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses data from the 2006 Social Capital Community Survey to examine the impact of social capital, religious capital, human capital, and attitudes on volunteerism. Five alternative structural models are estimated. Tests reveal unambiguously the inferiority of the Tobit model and point to a double-hurdle model with independent errors as the best alternative. Major findings are that more diversity in friendships and more education increase the likelihood of volunteering, greater intensity of religious belief increases the level of volunteerism, and more informal social networking and formal group involvement along with greater religious participation increase both the likelihood and level of volunteering. Study results suggest strongly that the nonprofit voluntary sector has a vested interest in promoting policies that expand educational opportunities and foster civil engagement, social interaction, and religious participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the question of whether differences in four structural models of charitable behavior make any difference to the findings regarding the major determinants of philanthropic contributions is addressed. Using data from Independent Sector’s Giving and Volunteering Survey, giving and volunteering equations using the standard Tobit model, the “Heckit” model, the Cragg model with uncorrelated errors, and the Cragg model with correlated errors are estimated. Results indicate that the generalized two-stage approaches are far superior to the standard Tobit model for both monetary donations and volunteer time. For monetary giving, parameter estimates of the second-stage contribution equations are similar across the three alternative two-stage methods and there is no evidence of correlation between the first- and second-stage error terms. Second-stage estimates for volunteering from the Heckit and Cragg models with correlated errors are also similar and offer compelling evidence of correlated error terms. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The extent to which future United States demand for natural gas is satisfied by imports of LNG is contingent on the adequacy and cost competitiveness of North American supplies. One of the cheaper and more important sources of natural gas supply is accounted for by reserve appreciation, i.e., reserve growth, in known fields. Based on an extensively applied methodology developed by Arrington (1960), the increase in proved ultimate recovery is presumed to increase at a diminishing rate with the age of the field. In this paper, a single equation model of natural gas reserve growth in the Gulf of Mexico is developed and estimated. The results strongly suggest that the annual growth rate in the reserves of afield is significantly affected by initial discovery size, price, water depth, and unobserved field-specific effects. Hence, estimating oil and gas reserve growth using an Arrington based approach may underestimate the response of reserve growth to changes in economic fundamentals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last 20 years, the offshore exploratory success rate has more than doubled for a group of large producers which includes Exxon, Shell, Mobil, and Texaco, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). It is tempting to conclude that this increase can be attributed to the many advances in seismic and drilling technologies that have occurred over the same period. However, such a conclusion may be premature given that much of the increase in the success rate occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, well before the major advancements in seismic technology. The conclusion may also be premature in that it ignores the relationship between price and the success rate. Increases in the price may positively (negatively) affect the success rate. Given this, and the decline in price over the past decade, one would expect the success rate to have declined (increased) in the absence of technological change. This paper develops an econometric model that attempts to disentangle and quantify the effects of the major factors hypothesized to affect the offshore exploratory success rate. The analysis relies on company level data from the EIA's Financial Reporting System over the period 1978 through 1995. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy. • The wind forecast error as a percent is calculated differently than the error metrics for other applications. • The calculated metric is different from what would be reported if the method utilized in other applications was employed. • There may be assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. • A method is presented to improve short-run forecast accuracy is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An econometric analysis indicates that the higher is wind energy''s share of forecasted demand, the more likely it is that the system operator will find it prudent to undertake non-traditional measures to maintain reliability. This should serve as a reminder that policies developed without affording due consideration to important technical issues are apt to run afoul of the law of unintended consequences. Each second, the amount of electricity generated must correspond to the quantity of electricity needed. It is not (yet) possible to store large quantities of electricity. Continuously maintaining the balance between production and consumption is one of our key tasks. The growing share of renewable energies and dynamic developments on the market pose ever greater challenges in day-to-day operations. Particularly the growing share of highly volatile volumes of renewable energies that are difficult to forecast… –50Hertz, 2010 Annual Report [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Based on the concept of a “capacity weighted error,” previous researchers have concluded that wind energy is moderately predictable. However, using data from nine electricity control areas as evidence, our analyses reveal that the wind energy forecast errors measured relative to mean wind energy production are very large. Wind energy forecasting errors have implications for action undertaken to ensure reliability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]