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3. Predictors of disease worsening defined by progression of organ damage in diffuse systemic sclerosis: A European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) analysis

Author

Becker, Mike, Graf, Nicole, Sauter, Rafael, Allanore, Yannick, Curram, John, Denton, Christopher P., Khanna, Dinesh, Matucci-Cerinic, Marco, Pena, Janethe de Oliveira, Pope, Janet E., Distler, Oliver, Guiducci, Serena, Walker, Ulrich, Jaeger, Veronika, Bannert, Bettina, Lapadula, Giovanni, Becvarare, Radim, Cutolo, Maurizio, Valentini, Gabriele, Siegert, Elise, Rednic, Simona, Montecucco, C., Carreira, Patricia E., Novak, Srdan, Czirjak, Laszlo, Varju, Cecilia, Chizzolini, Carlo, Allai, Daniela, Kucharz, Eugene J., Cozzi, Franco, Rozman, Blaz, Mallia, Carmel, Gabrielli, Armando, Bancel, Dominique Farge, Airo, Paolo, Hesselstrand, Roger, Martinovic, Duska, Balbir-Gurman, Alexandra, Braun-Moscovici, Yolanda, Hunzelmann, Nicolas, Pellerito, Raffaele, Caramaschi, Paola, Black, Carol, Damjanov, Nemanja, Henes, Joerg, Ortiz Santamaria, Vera, Heitmann, Stefan, Seidel, Matthias, Pereira Da Silva, Jose Antonio, Stamenkovic, Bojana, Selmi, Carlo Francesco, Tikly, Mohammed, Denisov, Lev N., Mueller-Ladner, Ulf, Engelhart, Merete, Hachulla, Eric, Riccieri, Valeria, Ionescu, Ruxandra Maria, Mihai, Carina, Sunderkoetter, Cord, Kuhn, Annegret, Schett, Georg, Distler, Joerg, Meroni, Pierluigi, Ingegnoli, Francesca, Mouthon, Luc, De Keyser, Filip, Smith, Vanessa, Cantatore, Francesco Paolo, Corrado, Ada, Ullman, Susanne, Iversen, Line, Pozzi, Maria Rosa, Eyerich, Kilian, Hein, Ruediger, Knott, Elisabeth, Wiland, Piotr, Szmyrka-Kaczmarek, Magdalena, Sokolik, Renata, Morgiel, Ewa, Madej, Marta, Jose Alegre-Sancho, Juan, Krummel-Lorenz, Brigitte, Saar, Petra, Aringer, Martin, Guenther, Claudia, Anne, Erler, Westhovens, Rene, De langhe, Ellen, Lenaerts, Jan, Anic, Branimir, Baresic, Marko, Mayer, Miroslav, Uprus, Maria, Otsa, Kati, Yavuz, Sule, Radominski, Sebastiao Cezar, Mueller, Carolina de Souza, Azevedo, Valderilio Feijo, Popa, Sergei, Zenone, Thierry, Stebbings, Simon, Highton, John, Mathieu, Alessandro, Vacca, Alessandra, Stamp, Lisa, Chapman, Peter, O'Donnell, John, Solanki, Kamal, Doube, Alan, Veale, Douglas, O'Rourke, Marie, Loyo, Esthela, Li, Mengtao, Rosato, Edoardo, Amoroso, Antonio, Gigante, Antonietta, Oksel, Fahrettin, Yargucu, Figen, Tanaseanu, Cristina-Mihaela, Popescu, Monica, Dumitrascu, Alina, Tiglea, Isabela, Foti, Rosario, Visalli, Elisa, Benenati, Alessia, Amato, Giorgio, Ancuta, Codrina, Chirieac, Rodica, Villiger, Peter, Adler, Sabine, Dan, Diana, de la Pena Lefebvre, Paloma Garcia, Rodriguez Rubio, Silvia, Valero Exposito, Marta, Sibilia, Jean, Chatelus, Emmanuel, Gottenberg, Jacques Eric, Chifflot, Helene, Litinsky, Ira, Del Galdo, Francesco, Venalis, Algirdas, Saketkoo, Lesley Ann, Lasky, Joseph A., Kerzberg, Eduardo, Montoya, Fabiana, Cosentino, Vanesa, Limonta, Massimiliano, Brucato, Antonio Luca, Lupi, Elide, Spertini, Francois, Ribi, Camillo, Buss, Guillaume, Martin, Thierry, Guffroy, Aurelien, Poindron, Vincent, Chung, Lori, Schmeiser, Tim, Zebryk, Pawel, Riso, Nuno, Riemekasten, Gabriela, Rezus, Elena, Puttini, Piercarlo Sarzi, Ege Üniversitesi, University of Zurich, Distler, Oliver, Chizzolini, Carlo, Allai, Daniela, Becker, M., Graf, N., Sauter, R., Allanore, Y., Curram, J., Denton, C. P., Khanna, D., Matucci-Cerinic, M., de Oliveira Pena, J., Pope, J. E., Distler, O., Guiducci, S., Walker, U., Jaeger, V., Bannert, B., Lapadula, G., Becvarare, R., Cutolo, M., Valentini, G., Siegert, E., Rednic, S., Montecucco, C., Carreira, P. E., Novak, S., Czirjak, L., Varju, C., Chizzolini, C., Allai, D., Kucharz, E. J., Cozzi, F., Rozman, B., Mallia, C., Gabrielli, A., Bancel, D. F., Airo, P., Hesselstrand, R., Martinovic, D., Balbir-Gurman, A., Braun-Moscovici, Y., Hunzelmann, N., Pellerito, R., Caramaschi, P., Black, C., Damjanov, N., Henes, J., Santamaria, V. O., Heitmann, S., Seidel, M., Pereira Da Silva, J. A., Stamenkovic, B., Selmi, C. F., Tikly, M., Denisov, L. N., Muller-Ladner, U., Engelhart, M., Hachulla, E., Riccieri, V., Ionescu, R. M., Mihai, C., Sunderkotter, C., Kuhn, A., Schett, G., Distler, J., Meroni, P., Ingegnoli, F., Mouthon, L., De Keyser, F., Smith, V., Cantatore, F. P., Corrado, A., Ullman, S., Iversen, L., Pozzi, M. R., Eyerich, K., Hein, R., Knott, E., Wiland, P., Szmyrka-Kaczmarek, M., Sokolik, R., Morgiel, E., Madej, M., Alegre-Sancho, J. J., Krummel-Lorenz, B., Saar, P., Aringer, M., Gunther, C., Anne, E., Westhovens, R., De Langhe, E., Lenaerts, J., Anic, B., Baresic, M., Mayer, M., Uprus, M., Otsa, K., Yavuz, S., Radominski, S. C., de Souza Muller, C., Azevedo, V. F., Popa, S., Zenone, T., Stebbings, S., Highton, J., Mathieu, A., Vacca, A., Stamp, L., Chapman, P., O'Donnell, J., Solanki, K., Doube, A., Veale, D., O'Rourke, M., Loyo, E., Li, M., Rosato, E., Amoroso, A., Gigante, A., Oksel, F., Yargucu, F., Tanaseanu, C. -M., Popescu, M., Dumitrascu, A., Tiglea, I., Foti, R., Visalli, E., Benenati, A., Amato, G., Ancuta, C., Chirieac, R., Villiger, P., Adler, S., Dan, D., de la Pena Lefebvre, P. G., Rubio, S. R., Exposito, M. V., Sibilia, J., Chatelus, E., Gottenberg, J. E., Chifflot, H., Litinsky, I., Del Galdo, F., Venalis, A., Saketkoo, L. A., Lasky, J. A., Kerzberg, E., Montoya, F., Cosentino, V., Limonta, M., Brucato, A. L., Lupi, E., Spertini, F., Ribi, C., Buss, G., Martin, T., Guffroy, A., Poindron, V., Chung, L., Schmeiser, T., Zebryk, P., Riso, N., Riemekasten, G., Rezus, E., and Sarzi Puttini, P.

Subjects
INVOLVEMENT, SELECTION, BIOMEDICINE AND HEALTHCARE. Clinical Medical Sciences, diffuse, predictive factors, systemic sclerosis, 2745 Rheumatology, epidemiologic methods, morbidity, Disease, Immunology, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Immunology and Allergy, Rheumatology, INTERSTITIAL LUNG-DISEASE, disease worsening, mortality, predictive factors, systemic sclerosis, predictive factor, disease worsening, DESIGN, middle aged, Medicine and Health Sciences, FIBROSIS, scleroderma, SKIN THICKNESS SCORE, mortality, skin and connective tissue diseases, Prospective cohort study, humans, lung diseases, ddc:616, education.field_of_study, heart diseases, integumentary system, clinical trials as topic, BIOMEDICINA I ZDRAVSTVO. Kliničke medicinske znanosti, 10051 Rheumatology Clinic and Institute of Physical Medicine, Interstitial lung disease, follow-up studies, ddc, female, Cohort, 2723 Immunology and Allergy, europe, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, CLINICAL-TRIALS, survival rate, medicine.medical_specialty, Population, 610 Medicine & health, disease progression, male, 1300 General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Internal medicine, Severity of illness, REGRESSION, medicine, severity of illness index, education, Survival rate, METAANALYSIS, 2403 Immunology, Science & Technology, Scleroderma, Systemic, business.industry, MORTALITY, systemic, medicine.disease, prospective studies, Clinical trial, prognosis, scleroderma, diffuse, scleroderma, systemic, Scleroderma, Diffuse, business
Abstract

PubMed: 31227488, Objectives Mortality and worsening of organ function are desirable endpoints for clinical trials in systemic sclerosis (SSc). The aim of this study was to identify factors that allow enrichment of patients with these endpoints, in a population of patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research group database. Methods Inclusion criteria were diagnosis of diffuse SSc and follow-up over 12±3 months. Disease worsening/organ progression was fulfilled if any of the following events occurred: new renal crisis; decrease of lung or heart function; new echocardiography-suspected pulmonary hypertension or death. In total, 42 clinical parameters were chosen as predictors for the analysis by using (1) imputation of missing data on the basis of multivariate imputation and (2) least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Results Of 1451 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, 706 had complete data on outcome parameters and were included in the analysis. Of the 42 outcome predictors, eight remained in the final regression model. There was substantial evidence for a strong association between disease progression and age, active digital ulcer (DU), lung fibrosis, muscle weakness and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Active DU, CRP elevation, lung fibrosis and muscle weakness were also associated with a significantly shorter time to disease progression. A bootstrap validation step with 10 000 repetitions successfully validated the model. Conclusions The use of the predictive factors presented here could enable cohort enrichment with patients at risk for overall disease worsening in SSc clinical trials. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ., Bayer Bayer, United Kingdom Université Paris Descartes Li Ka Shing Foundation, LKSF University of Michigan, U-M, 1Department of Rheumatology and the Centre of experimental Rheumatology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, switzerland 2Graf Biostatistics, Winterthur, switzerland 3Big Data institute, li Ka shing Centre for Health information and Discovery, nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 4Rheumatology a Department, Paris Descartes University, sorbonne Paris Cité, Cochin Hospital, Paris, France 5Data science and analytics, Bayer plc, Reading, UK 6UCl Division of Medicine, Royal Free Campus, london, UK 7Division of Rheumatology, Department of internal Medicine, University of Michigan scleroderma Program, University of Michigan, ann arbor, Michigan, Usa 8Department of experimental and Clinical Medicine, University of Florence, Florence, italy 9Bayer Us llC, Whippany, new Jersey, Usa 10Department of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology, University of Western Ontario, st. Joseph’s Health Care, london, Ontario, Canada Acknowledgements The R-code for the linear Mi-lassO was received from Qixuan Chen.21 Medical writing assistance was provided by adelphi Communications ltd (Bollington, UK), funded by Bayer aG (Berlin, Germany)., Contributors study conception and design, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation of data and drafting and revising the article: OD and MB; analysis and interpretation of data: OD, MB, Rs and nG. all authors have critically reviewed and approved the final submitted version to be published. Funding This study was supported by a grant from Bayer aG. Bayer employees are coauthors of this paper and supported the study design and interpretation of the data, but otherwise Bayer had no influence on the study., Competing interests MOB declares no conflict of interest. OD has had consultancy relationships with actelion, Bayer, Biogen idec, Boehringer ingelheim, Chemomab, espeRare foundation, Genentech/Roche, GsK, inventiva, italfarmaco, lilly, medac, Medimmune, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, Pharmacyclics, novartis, Pfizer, sanofi, sinoxa and UCB in the area of potential treatments of scleroderma and its complications. OD has received research funding from actelion, Bayer, Boehringer ingelheim, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma and Roche in the area of potential treatments of scleroderma and its complications. OD has a patent for mir-29 licensed for the treatment of systemic sclerosis. DK has consultancy relationships and/or has received grant/research support from Bayer, Bristol-Myers squibb, Boehringer ingelheim, Genentech/Roche, niH, Pfizer, sanofi-aventis Pharmaceuticals, actelion Pharmaceuticals Us, Chemomab, Corbus, Covis, Cytori, eicos, eMD serono, Gilead, GlaxosmithKline, and UCB Pharma. He is a shareholder of eicos. CPD has consultancy relationships with and/or has received speakers’ bureau fees from actelion Pharmaceuticals Us, Bayer aG, GlaxosmithKline, Csl Behring, Merck serono, Roche Pharmaceuticals, Genentech and Biogen iDeC inc., inventiva, sanofi-aventis Pharmaceuticals and Boehringer ingelheim. JeP has consultancy relationships with and/or has received grant/research support from actelion, Bayer aG, Bristol-Myers squibb, Merck, Pfizer inc. and Roche. MM-C has consultancy relationships and/ or has received grant/research support from Pfizer, Bristol-Myers squibb, actelion, UCB Pharma, Bayer, Chemomab, Genentech/Roche, inventiva and lilly. Ya has consultancy relationships with and/or has received grant/research support from actelion, Pharmaceuticals Us, Bayer aG, Bristol-Myers squibb, inventiva, Medac, Pfizer inc., Roche Pharmaceuticals, Genentech and Biogen iDeC inc., sanofi-aventis Pharmaceuticals and servier. JdOP and JC are employees of Bayer. nTG has nothing to disclose.

Published
2019

4. Progressive skin fibrosis is associated with a decline in lung function and worse survival in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis in the european scleroderma trials and research (eustar) cohort

Author

Wu, Wanlong, Jordan, Suzana, Graf, Nicole, Pena, Janethe de Oliveira, Curram, John, Allanore, Yannick, Matucci-Cerinic, Marco, Pope, Janet E., Denton, Christopher P., Khanna, Dinesh, Distler, Oliver, Guiducci, Serena, Walker, Ulrich, Jaeger, Veronika, Bannert, Bettina, Lapadula, Giovanni, Becvarare, Radim, Cutolo, Maurizio, Valentini, Gabriele, Siegert, Elise, Rednic, Simona, Montecucco, C., Carreira, Patricia E., Novak, Srdan, Czirjak, Laszlo, Varju, Cecilia, Chizzolini, Carlo, Allai, Daniela, Kucharz, Eugene J., Cozzi, Franco, Rozman, Blaz, Mallia, Carmel, Gabrielli, Armando, Bancel, Dominique Farge, Airo, Paolo, Hesselstrand, Roger, Martinovic, Duska, Balbir-Gurman, Alexandra, Braun-Moscovici, Yolanda, Hunzelmann, Nicolas, Pellerito, Raffaele, Caramaschi, Paola, Black, Carol, Damjanov, Nemanja, Henes, Joerg, Ortiz Santamaria, Vera, Heitmann, Stefan, Seidel, Matthias, Pereira Da Silva, Jose Antonio, Stamenkovic, Bojana, Selmi, Carlo Francesco, Tikly, Mohammed, Denisov, Lev N., Mueller-Ladner, Ulf, Engelhart, Merete, Hachulla, Eric, Riccieri, Valeria, Ionescu, Ruxandra Maria, Mihai, Carina, Sunderkoetter, Cord, Kuhn, Annegret, Schett, Georg, Distler, Joerg, Meroni, Pierluigi, Ingegnoli, Francesca, Mouthon, Luc, De Keyser, Filip, Smith, Vanessa, Cantatore, Francesco Paolo, Corrado, Ada, Ullman, Susanne, Iversen, Line, Pozzi, Maria Rosa, Eyerich, Kilian, Hein, Ruediger, Knott, Elisabeth, Wiland, Piotr, Szmyrka-Kaczmarek, Magdalena, Sokolik, Renata, Morgiel, Ewa, Madej, Marta, Jose Alegre-Sancho, Juan, Krummel-Lorenz, Brigitte, Saar, Petra, Aringer, Martin, Guenther, Claudia, Anne, Erler, Westhovens, Rene, De Langhe, Ellen, Lenaerts, Jan, Anic, Branimir, Baresic, Marko, Mayer, Miroslav, Uprus, Maria, Otsa, Kati, Yavuz, Sule, Radominski, Sebastiao Cezar, Mueller, Carolina de Souza, Azevedo, Valderilio Feijo, Popa, Sergei, Zenone, Thierry, Stebbings, Simon, Highton, John, Mathieu, Alessandro, Vacca, Alessandra, Stamp, Lisa, Chapman, Peter, O'Donnell, John, Solanki, Kamal, Doube, Alan, Veale, Douglas, O'Rourke, Marie, Loyo, Esthela, Li, Mengtao, Rosato, Edoardo, Amoroso, Antonio, Gigante, Antonietta, Oksel, Fahrettin, Yargucu, Figen, Tanaseanu, Cristina-Mihaela, Popescu, Monica, Dumitrascu, Alina, Tiglea, Isabela, Foti, Rosario, Visalli, Elisa, Benenati, Alessia, Amato, Giorgio, Ancuta, Codrina, Chirieac, Rodica, Villiger, Peter, Adler, Sabine, Dan, Diana, de la Pena Lefebvre, Paloma Garcia, Rodriguez Rubio, Silvia, Valero Exposito, Marta, Sibilia, Jean, Chatelus, Emmanuel, Gottenberg, Jacques Eric, Chifflot, Helene, Litinsky, Ira, Del Galdo, Francesco, Venalis, Algirdas, Saketkoo, Lesley Ann, Lasky, Joseph A., Kerzberg, Eduardo, Montoya, Fabiana, Cosentino, Vanesa, Limonta, Massimiliano, Brucato, Antonio Luca, Lupi, Elide, Spertini, Francois, Ribi, Camillo, Buss, Guillaume, Martin, Thierry, Guffroy, Aurelien, Poindron, Vincent, Chung, Lori, Schmeiser, Tim, Zebryk, Pawel, Riso, Nuno, Riemekasten, Gabriela, Rezus, Elena, Puttini, Piercarlo Sarzi, Wu, W., Jordan, S., Graf, N., de Oliveira Pena, J., Curram, J., Allanore, Y., Matucci-Cerinic, M., Pope, J. E., Denton, C. P., Khanna, D., Distler, O., Guiducci, S., Walker, U., Jaeger, V., Bannert, B., Lapadula, G., Becvarare, R., Cutolo, M., Valentini, G., Siegert, E., Rednic, S., Montecucco, C., Carreira, P. E., Novak, S., Czirjak, L., Varju, C., Chizzolini, C., Allai, D., Kucharz, E. J., Cozzi, F., Rozman, B., Mallia, C., Gabrielli, A., Bancel, D. F., Airo, P., Hesselstrand, R., Martinovic, D., Balbir-Gurman, A., Braun-Moscovici, Y., Hunzelmann, N., Pellerito, R., Caramaschi, P., Black, C., Damjanov, N., Henes, J., Santamaria, V. O., Heitmann, S., Seidel, M., Pereira Da Silva, J. A., Stamenkovic, B., Selmi, C. F., Tikly, M., Denisov, L. N., Muller-Ladner, U., Engelhart, M., Hachulla, E., Riccieri, V., Ionescu, R. M., Mihai, C., Sunderkotter, C., Kuhn, A., Schett, G., Distler, J., Meroni, P., Ingegnoli, F., Mouthon, L., De Keyser, F., Smith, V., Cantatore, F. P., Corrado, A., Ullman, S., Iversen, L., Pozzi, M. R., Eyerich, K., Hein, R., Knott, E., Wiland, P., Szmyrka-Kaczmarek, M., Sokolik, R., Morgiel, E., Madej, M., Alegre-Sancho, J. J., Krummel-Lorenz, B., Saar, P., Aringer, M., Gunther, C., Anne, E., Westhovens, R., De Langhe, E., Lenaerts, J., Anic, B., Baresic, M., Mayer, M., Uprus, M., Otsa, K., Yavuz, S., Radominski, S. C., de Souza Muller, C., Azevedo, V. F., Popa, S., Zenone, T., Stebbings, S., Highton, J., Mathieu, A., Vacca, A., Stamp, L., Chapman, P., O'Donnell, J., Solanki, K., Doube, A., Veale, D., O'Rourke, M., Loyo, E., Li, M., Rosato, E., Amoroso, A., Gigante, A., Oksel, F., Yargucu, F., Tanaseanu, C. -M., Popescu, M., Dumitrascu, A., Tiglea, I., Foti, R., Visalli, E., Benenati, A., Amato, G., Ancuta, C., Chirieac, R., Villiger, P., Adler, S., Dan, D., de la Pena Lefebvre, P. G., Rubio, S. R., Exposito, M. V., Sibilia, J., Chatelus, E., Gottenberg, J. E., Chifflot, H., Litinsky, I., Del Galdo, F., Venalis, A., Saketkoo, L. A., Lasky, J. A., Kerzberg, E., Montoya, F., Cosentino, V., Limonta, M., Brucato, A. L., Lupi, E., Spertini, F., Ribi, C., Buss, G., Martin, T., Guffroy, A., Poindron, V., Chung, L., Schmeiser, T., Zebryk, P., Riso, N., Riemekasten, G., Rezus, E., Sarzi Puttini, P., Ege Üniversitesi, Chizzolini, Carlo, Allali, Danièle, University of Zurich, and Distler, Oliver

Subjects
INVOLVEMENT, Male, BIOMEDICINE AND HEALTHCARE. Clinical Medical Sciences, diffuse, Time Factors, Databases, Factual, Skin Diseases/etiology/mortality/physiopathology, PREDICTION, Fibrosi, 2745 Rheumatology, Diffuse/complications/mortality/pathology, Immunology, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Immunology and Allergy, Rheumatology, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, ddc:616.07, Severity of Illness Index, Scleroderma, Cohort Studies, PROGNOSTIC-FACTORS, Fibrosis, Medicine and Health Sciences, scleroderma, Lung, Skin, integumentary system, progressive skin fibrosis, Lung function decline, BIOMEDICINA I ZDRAVSTVO. Kliničke medicinske znanosti, 10051 Rheumatology Clinic and Institute of Physical Medicine, DEATH, Middle Aged, ddc, Europe, VARIABILITY, factual, Cohort, Visceral organ progression, 2723 Immunology and Allergy, Disease Progression, Female, Survival Analysi, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Cohort study, Human, Adult, Skin/pathology, medicine.medical_specialty, databases, All-cause death, risk analysis, diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis, 610 Medicine & health, IMPROVEMENT, Systemic Sclerosis, Skin Diseases, THICKNESS SCORE, VALIDATION, Databases, FEV1/FVC ratio, 1300 General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Internal medicine, medicine, Humans, Factual, Survival analysis, 2403 Immunology, Science & Technology, Proportional hazards model, business.industry, Surrogate endpoint, MORTALITY, Skin Disease, fibrosis, Progressive skin fibrosi, Lung/physiopathology, biomarkers, Diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosi, medicine.disease, Survival Analysis, all-cause death, lung function decline, visceral organ progression, adult, cohort studies, databases, factual, disease progression, female, humans, Scleroderma, Diffuse, Cohort Studie, business
Abstract

PubMed: 30852552, Objectives To determine whether progressive skin fibrosis is associated with visceral organ progression and mortality during follow-up in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Methods We evaluated patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research database with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ?7, valid mRSS at 12±3 months after baseline and ?1 annual follow-up visit. Progressive skin fibrosis was defined as an increase in mRSS >5 and ?25% from baseline to 12±3 months. Outcomes were pulmonary, cardiovascular and renal progression, and all-cause death. Associations between skin progression and outcomes were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression. Results Of 1021 included patients, 78 (7.6%) had progressive skin fibrosis (skin progressors). Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Survival analyses indicated that skin progressors had a significantly higher probability of FVC decline ?10% (53.6% vs 34.4%; p, Bayer Bayer, 1Department of Rheumatology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, switzerland 2Graf Biostatistics, Winterthur, switzerland 3Clinical Development Pulmonology, Bayer Us llC, Whippany, new Jersey, Usa 4Data science and analytics, Bayer plc, Reading, UK 5Rheumatology a Department, Paris Descartes University, inseRM U1016, sorbonne, Paris Cité, Cochin Hospital, Paris, France 6Division of Rheumatology, University of Florence, Florence, italy 7Department of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology, University of Western Ontario, st. Joseph’s Health Care, london, Western Ontario, Canada 8Department of Rheumatology, Royal Free Hospital, University College london, london, UK 9scleroderma Program, Department of internal Medicine, Division of Rheumatology, University of Michigan, ann arbor, Michigan, Usa Acknowledgements The authors thank nicole schneider for excellent administration and data entry into the eUsTaR cohort. Medical writing assistance was provided by adelphi Communications ltd (Bollington, UK), funded by Bayer aG (Berlin, Germany)., This study was supported by a grant from Bayer aG.

Published
2019

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