Search

Since 2010, the Chinese economy has transitioned from a high-speed growth model to a high-quality development model. During this period, the logistics industry has witnessed rapid growth, leading to significant carbon emissions and posing severe threats to the ecological environment. To investigate the spatiotemporal variations in carbon emissions in China's logistics industry, we conducted a correlation analysis using Moran's I index and a bivariate spatial autocorrelation model from 2010 to 2021. Additionally, we employed a geographically and temporally weighted regression model （GTWR） to examine the spatial heterogeneity of factors influencing provincial-level logistics-related carbon emissions. The results indicated that over the study period, there was a shift from insignificant spatial relationships to significant positive spatial correlations among provincial-level logistics carbon emissions in China. Furthermore, varying degrees of spatial clustering were observed. The findings regarding factor heterogeneity revealed that freight turnover volume, per capita GDP of the logistics industry, and infrastructure level exhibited positive spatial correlations with logistics-related carbon emissions, whereas energy intensity showed negative spatial correlations with such emissions. Comparing the results from the geographically weighted regression （GWR） and ordinary least squares regression （OLS）, it was evident that the adjusted R-squared values for the OLS, GWR, and GTWR models were 0.541, 0.567, and 0.838, respectively. This suggests that our adopted GTWR model provided a superior fit and offered better explanations for spatiotemporal heterogeneity between various influencing factors and logistics-related carbon emissions. These research findings can serve as valuable references for formulating province-specific strategies to reduce carbon emissions within China's economy under its high-quality development context.

The rapid development of society and economy has resulted in a substantial increase in energy consumption, consequently exacerbating pollution issues. Current research predominantly focuses on energy-saving and emission reduction in road transportation within individual cities or the three major economic regions of China:the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. However, there is a dearth of studies addressing the southeastern coastal economic region. Located at the heart of China's southeastern coastal economic development, the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang unavoidably face challenges associated with energy consumption and emissions while pursuing economic growth. To address these challenges, this study employed a LEAP model to construct various scenarios for road transportation in the key coastal cities of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang from 2015 to 2035. These scenarios included a baseline scenario (BAU), an existing policy scenario (EPS), and an improved policy scenario (MPS). The MPS and EPS encompassed vehicle structure optimization (VSO), improved fuel economy (IFE), and reduced annual average mileage (RDM). By simulating and evaluating these scenarios, the energy-saving and emission reduction potentials of road transportation in the key coastal cities were assessed. The results indicated that, in the primary scenario, the MPS exhibited the most significant improvements in energy-saving, carbon reduction, and pollutant reduction effects. By 2035, the MPS achieved a remarkable 75% energy-saving rate compared to that in the baseline scenario, accompanied by reductions of 68%, 59%, 66%, 70%, and 64% in CO 2 , CO, NO x , PM 2.5 , and SO 2 emissions, respectively. In the secondary scenario, the improved scenario of enhancing fuel economy achieved a notable 30% reduction in energy consumption. Additionally, the scenarios involving vehicle structure adjustment (yielding reductions of 36%, 30%, 36%, 26%, and 40%) and annual average mileage reduction (resulting in reductions of 37%, 37%, 36%, 37%, and 36%) demonstrated significant reductions in CO 2 , CO, NO x , PM 2.5 , and SO 2 emissions.