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Engagement with misinformation on social media poses unprecedented threats to societal well-being, particularly during health crises when susceptibility to misinformation is heightened in a multi-topic context. This paper focuses on the COVID-19 pandemic and addresses a critical gap in understanding online engagement with multi-topic misinformation at two user levels: news sharers who share source news items on social media and post viewers who engage with online news posts. To this end, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of 7273 fact-checked source news claims related to COVID-19 and their associated posts on X, through the lens of topic diversity and conspiracy theories. We find that false news, particularly when accompanied by conspiracy theories, exhibits higher topic diversity than true news. At the news sharer level, false news has a longer lifetime and receives more posts on X than true news. Additionally, the integration of conspiracy theories is significantly associated with a longer lifetime for COVID-19 misinformation. However, topic diversity has no significant association with news sharer engagement in terms of news lifetime and the number of posts. At the post viewer level, contrary to the news sharer level, news posts characterized by heightened topic diversity receive more reposts, likes, and replies. Notably, post viewers tend to engage more with misinformation containing conspiracy narratives: false news posts that contain conspiracy theories, on average, receive 40.8% more reposts, 45.2% more likes, and 44.1% more replies compared to false news posts without conspiracy theories. Our findings suggest that news sharers and post viewers exhibit different engagement patterns on social media regarding topic diversity and conspiracy theories, offering valuable insights into designing targeted misinformation intervention strategies at both user levels.

Political elites play an important role in the proliferation of online misinformation. However, an understanding of how fact-checking platforms pick up politicized misinformation for fact-checking is still in its infancy. Here, we conduct an empirical analysis of mentions of U.S. political elites within fact-checked statements. For this purpose, we collect a comprehensive dataset consisting of 35,014 true and false statements that have been fact-checked by two major fact-checking organizations (Snopes, PolitiFact) in the U.S. between 2008 and 2023, i.e., within an observation period of 15 years. Subsequently, we perform content analysis and explanatory regression modeling to analyze how veracity is linked to mentions of U.S. political elites in fact-checked statements. Our analysis yields the following main findings: (i) Fact-checked false statements are, on average, 20% more likely to mention political elites than true fact-checked statements. (ii) There is a partisan asymmetry such that fact-checked false statements are 88.1% more likely to mention Democrats, but 26.5% less likely to mention Republicans, compared to fact-checked true statements. (iii) Mentions of political elites in fact-checked false statements reach the highest level during the months preceding elections. (iv) Fact-checked false statements that mention political elites carry stronger other-condemning emotions and are more likely to be pro-Republican, compared to fact-checked true statements. In sum, our study offers new insights into understanding mentions of political elites in false statements on U.S. fact-checking platforms, and bridges important findings at the intersection between misinformation and politicization.

Variable selection is a procedure to attain the truly important predictors from inputs. Complex nonlinear dependencies and strong coupling pose great challenges for variable selection in high-dimensional data. In addition, real-world applications have increased demands for interpretability of the selection process. A pragmatic approach should not only attain the most predictive covariates, but also provide ample and easy-to-understand grounds for removing certain covariates. In view of these requirements, this paper puts forward an approach for transparent and nonlinear variable selection. In order to transparently decouple information within the input predictors, a three-step heuristic search is designed, via which the input predictors are grouped into four subsets: the relevant to be selected, and the uninformative, redundant, and conditionally independent to be removed. A nonlinear partial correlation coefficient is introduced to better identify the predictors which have nonlinear functional dependence with the response. The proposed method is model-free and the selected subset can be competent input for commonly used predictive models. Experiments demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method against the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of prediction accuracy and model interpretability.

Newly arriving nodes in dynamics networks would gradually make the node embedding space drifted and the retraining of node embedding and downstream models indispensable. An exact threshold size of these new nodes, below which the node embedding space will be predicatively maintained, however, is rarely considered in either theory or experiment. From the view of matrix perturbation theory, a threshold of the maximum number of new nodes that keep the node embedding space approximately equivalent is analytically provided and empirically validated. It is therefore theoretically guaranteed that as the size of newly arriving nodes is below this threshold, embeddings of these new nodes can be quickly derived from embeddings of original nodes. A generation framework, Space-Invariant Projection (SIP), is accordingly proposed to enables arbitrary static MF-based embedding schemes to embed new nodes in dynamics networks fast. The time complexity of SIP is linear with the network size. By combining SIP with four state-of-the-art MF-based schemes, we show that SIP exhibits not only wide adaptability but also strong empirical performance in terms of efficiency and efficacy on the node classification task in three real datasets.

Real estate prices have a significant impact on individuals, families, businesses, and governments. The general objective of real estate price prediction is to identify and exploit socioeconomic patterns arising from real estate transactions over multiple aspects, ranging from the property itself to other contributing factors. However, price prediction is a challenging multidimensional problem that involves estimating many characteristics beyond the property itself. In this paper, we use multiple sources of data to evaluate the economic contribution of different socioeconomic characteristics such as surrounding amenities, traffic conditions and social emotions. Our experiments were conducted on 28,550 houses in Beijing, China and we rank each characteristic by its importance. Since the use of multi-source information improves the accuracy of predictions, the aforementioned characteristics can be an invaluable resource to assess the economic and social value of real estate. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/IndigoPurple/PATE, Comment: Accepted by IEEE DSAA 2022. 10 pages, 3 figures

The study of socioeconomic status has been reformed by the availability of digital records containing data on real estate, points of interest, traffic and social media trends such as micro-blogging. In this paper, we describe a heterogeneous, multi-source, multi-modal, multi-view and multi-distributional dataset named "H4M". The mixed dataset contains data on real estate transactions, points of interest, traffic patterns and micro-blogging trends from Beijing, China. The unique composition of H4M makes it an ideal test bed for methodologies and approaches aimed at studying and solving problems related to real estate, traffic, urban mobility planning, social sentiment analysis etc. The dataset is available at: https://indigopurple.github.io/H4M/index.html, Comment: Accepted by IEEE DSAA 2022. 10 pages, 10 figures

Orthonormality is the foundation of matrix decomposition. For example, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) implements the compression by factoring a matrix with orthonormal parts and is pervasively utilized in various fields. Orthonormality, however, inherently includes constraints that would induce redundant degrees of freedom, preventing SVD from deeper compression and even making it frustrated as the data fidelity is strictly required. In this paper, we theoretically prove that these redundancies resulted by orthonormality can be completely eliminated in a lossless manner. An enhanced version of SVD, namely E-SVD, is accordingly established to losslessly and quickly release constraints and recover the orthonormal parts in SVD by avoiding multiple matrix multiplications. According to the theory, advantages of E-SVD over SVD become increasingly evident with the rising requirement of data fidelity. In particular, E-SVD will reduce 25% storage units as SVD reaches its limitation and fails to compress data. Empirical evidences from typical scenarios of remote sensing and Internet of things further justify our theory and consistently demonstrate the superiority of E-SVD in compression. The presented theory sheds insightful lights on the constraint solution in orthonormal matrices and E-SVD, guaranteed by which will profoundly enhance the SVD-based compression in the context of explosive growth in both data acquisition and fidelity levels., Comment: The code can be accessed through https://github.com/Vicky-Zh/E-SVD

Great research efforts have been devoted to exploiting deep neural networks in stock prediction. While long-range dependencies and chaotic property are still two major issues that lower the performance of state-of-the-art deep learning models in forecasting future price trends. In this study, we propose a novel framework to address both issues. Specifically, in terms of transforming time series into complex networks, we convert market price series into graphs. Then, structural information, referring to associations among temporal points and the node weights, is extracted from the mapped graphs to resolve the problems regarding long-range dependencies and the chaotic property. We take graph embeddings to represent the associations among temporal points as the prediction model inputs. Node weights are used as a priori knowledge to enhance the learning of temporal attention. The effectiveness of our proposed framework is validated using real-world stock data, and our approach obtains the best performance among several state-of-the-art benchmarks. Moreover, in the conducted trading simulations, our framework further obtains the highest cumulative profits. Our results supplement the existing applications of complex network methods in the financial realm and provide insightful implications for investment applications regarding decision support in financial markets., Comment: Code and data can be accessed through https://github.com/BUAA-WJR/PriceGraph

Negative reviews, the poor ratings in postpurchase evaluation, play an indispensable role in e-commerce, especially in shaping future sales and firm equities. However, extant studies seldom examine their potential value for sellers and producers in enhancing capabilities of providing better services and products. For those who exploited the helpfulness of reviews in the view of e-commerce keepers, the ranking approaches were developed for customers instead. To fill this gap, in terms of combining description texts and emotion polarities, the aim of the ranking method in this study is to provide the most helpful negative reviews under a certain product attribute for online sellers and producers. By applying a more reasonable evaluating procedure, experts with related backgrounds are hired to vote for the ranking approaches. Our ranking method turns out to be more reliable for ranking negative reviews for sellers and producers, demonstrating a better performance than the baselines like BM25 with a result of 8% higher. In this paper, we also enrich the previous understandings of emotions in valuing reviews. Specifically, it is surprisingly found that positive emotions are more helpful rather than negative emotions in ranking negative reviews. The unexpected strengthening from positive emotions in ranking suggests that less polarized reviews on negative experience in fact offer more rational feedbacks and thus more helpfulness to the sellers and producers. The presented ranking method could provide e-commerce practitioners with an efficient and effective way to leverage negative reviews from online consumers., Comment: Emotion lexicons are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12327680.v1

Increasing evidence suggests that, similar to face-to-face communications, human emotions also spread in online social media. However, the mechanisms underlying this emotion contagion, for example, whether different feelings spread in unlikely ways or how the spread of emotions relates to the social network, is rarely investigated. Indeed, because of high costs and spatio-temporal limitations, explorations of this topic are challenging using conventional questionnaires or controlled experiments. Because they are collection points for natural affective responses of massive individuals, online social media sites offer an ideal proxy for tackling this issue from the perspective of computational social science. In this paper, based on the analysis of millions of tweets in Weibo, surprisingly, we find that anger travels easily along weaker ties than joy, meaning that it can infiltrate different communities and break free of local traps because strangers share such content more often. Through a simple diffusion model, we reveal that weaker ties speed up anger by applying both propagation velocity and coverage metrics. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that quantitative long-term evidence has been presented that reveals a difference in the mechanism by which joy and anger are disseminated. With the extensive proliferation of weak ties in booming social media, our results imply that the contagion of anger could be profoundly strengthened to globalize its negative impact., Comment: This article draws partly from our previous submission arXiv:1608.03656 and is essentially updated with new insights

Negative reviews on e-commerce platforms, mainly in the form of texts, are posted by online consumers to express complaints about unsatisfactory experiences, providing a proxy of big data for sellers to consider improvements. However, the exact knowledge that lies beyond the negative reviewing still remains unknown. Aimed at a systemic understanding of how online consumers post negative reviews, using 1, 450, 000 negative reviews from JD.com, the largest B2C platform in China, the behavioral patterns from temporal, perceptional and emotional perspectives are comprehensively explored in the present study. Massive consumers behind these reviews across four sectors in the most recent 10 years are further split into five levels to reveal group discriminations at a fine resolution. Circadian rhythms of negative reviewing after making purchases were found, and the periodic intervals suggest stable habits in online consumption and that consumers tend to negatively review at the same hour of the purchase. Consumers from lower levels express more intensive negative feelings, especially on product pricing and seller attitudes, while those from upper levels demonstrate a stronger momentum of negative emotion. The value of negative reviews from higher-level consumers is thus unexpectedly highlighted because of less emotionalization and less biased narration, while the longer-lasting characteristic of these consumers' negative responses also stresses the need for more attention from sellers. Our results shed light on implementing distinguished proactive strategies in different buyer groups to help mitigate the negative impact due to negative reviews., Comment: The dataset will be publicly available through a permanent link of Figshare repository later

Fake news that manipulates political elections, strikes financial systems, and even incites riots is more viral than real news online, resulting in unstable societies and buffeted democracy. The easier contagion of fake news online can be causally explained by the greater anger it carries. The same results in Twitter and Weibo indicate that this mechanism is independent of the platform. Moreover, mutations in emotions like increasing anger will progressively speed up the information spread. Specifically, increasing the occupation of anger by 0.1 and reducing that of joy by 0.1 will produce nearly 6 more retweets in the Weibo dataset. Offline questionnaires reveal that anger leads to more incentivized audiences in terms of anxiety management and information sharing and accordingly makes fake news more contagious than real news online. Cures such as tagging anger in social media could be implemented to slow or prevent the contagion of fake news at the source., Comment: All data used in this study can be publicly available through https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12163569.v2

The boom in social media with regard to producing and consuming information simultaneously implies the crucial role of online user influence in determining content popularity. In particular, understanding behavior variations between the influential elites and the mass grassroots is an important issue in communication. However, how their behavior varies across user categories and content domains, and how these differences influence content popularity are rarely addressed. From a novel view of seven content-domains, a detailed picture of behavior variations among five user groups, from both views of elites and mass, is drawn in Weibo, one of the most popular Twitter-like services in China. Interestingly, elites post more diverse contents with video links while the mass possess retweeters of higher loyalty. According to these variations, user-oriented actions of enhancing content popularity are discussed and testified. The most surprising finding is that the diversity of contents do not always bring more retweets, and the mass and elites should promote content popularity by increasing their retweeter counts and loyalty, respectively. Our results for the first time demonstrate the possibility of highly individualized strategies of popularity promotions in social media, instead of a universal principle.

The Chinese stock market experienced an abrupt crash in 2015, and over one-third of its market value evaporated. Given its associations with fear and the fine resolution with respect to frequency, the illiquidity of stocks may offer a promising perspective for understanding and even signaling a market crash. In this study, by connecting stocks with illiquidity comovements, an illiquidity network is established to model the market. Compared to noncrash days, on crash days, the market is more densely connected due to heavier but more homogeneous illiquidity dependencies that facilitate abrupt collapses. Critical stocks in the illiquidity network, particularly those in the finance sector, are targeted for inspection because of their crucial roles in accumulating and passing on illiquidity losses. The cascading failures of stocks in market crashes are profiled as disseminating from small degrees to high degrees that are usually located in the core of the illiquidity network and then back to the periphery. By counting the days with random failures in the previous five days, an early signal is implemented to successfully predict more than half of the crash days, especially consecutive days in the early phase. Additional evidence from both the Granger causality network and the random network further testifies to the robustness of the signal. Our results could help market practitioners such as regulators detect and prevent the risk of crashes in advance.

In complex systems like financial market, risk tolerance of individuals is crucial for system resilience.The single-security price limit, designed as risk tolerance to protect investors by avoiding sharp price fluctuation, is blamed for feeding market panic in times of crash.The relationship between the critical market confidence which stabilizes the whole system and the price limit is therefore an important aspect of system resilience. Using a simplified dynamic model on networks of investors and stocks, an unexpected linear association between price limit and critical market confidence is theoretically derived and empirically verified in this paper. Our results highlight the importance of relatively `small' but critical stocks that drive the system to collapse by passing the failure from periphery to core. These small stocks, largely originating from homogeneous investment strategies across the market, has unintentionally suppressed system resilience with the exclusive increment of individual risk tolerance. Imposing random investment requirements to mitigate herding behavior can thus improve the market resilience., Comment: The datasets analyzed during the current study are available in the figshare.com repository, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8216582.v2

Influenza is an acute respiratory infection caused by a virus. It is highly contagious and rapidly mutative. However, its epidemiological characteristics are conventionally collected in terms of outpatient records. In fact, the subjective bias of the doctor emphasizes exterior signs, and the necessity of face-to-face inquiry results in an inaccurate and time-consuming manner of data collection and aggregation. Accordingly, the inferred spectrum of syndromes can be incomplete and lagged. With a massive number of users being sensors, online social media can indeed provide an alternative approach. Voluntary reports in Twitter and its variants can deliver not only exterior signs but also interior feelings such as emotions. These sophisticated signals can further be efficiently collected and aggregated in a real-time manner, and a comprehensive spectrum of syndromes could thus be inferred. Taking Weibo as an example, it is confirmed that a regional spectrum of symptoms can be credibly sensed. Aside from the differences in symptoms and treatment incentives between northern and southern China, it is also surprising that patients in the south are more optimistic, while those in the north demonstrate more intense emotions. The differences sensed from Weibo can even help improve the performance of regressions in monitoring influenza. Our results suggest that self-reports from social media can be profound supplements to the existing clinic-based systems for influenza surveillance., Comment: All the data in this study can be freely downloaded through https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7545203.v1

Online reviews are feedback voluntarily posted by consumers about their consumption experiences. This feedback indicates customer attitudes such as affection, awareness and faith towards a brand or a firm and demonstrates inherent connections with a company's future sales, cash flow and stock pricing. However, the predicting power of online reviews for long-term returns on stocks, especially at the individual level, has received little research attention, making a comprehensive exploration necessary to resolve existing debates. In this paper, which is based exclusively on online reviews, a methodology framework for predicting long-term returns of individual stocks with competent performance is established. Specifically, 6,246 features of 13 categories inferred from more than 18 million product reviews are selected to build the prediction models. With the best classifier selected from cross-validation tests, a satisfactory increase in accuracy, 13.94%, was achieved compared to the cutting-edge solution with 10 technical indicators being features, representing an 18.28% improvement relative to the random value. The robustness of our model is further evaluated and testified in realistic scenarios. It is thus confirmed for the first time that long-term returns of individual stocks can be predicted by online reviews. This study provides new opportunities for investors with respect to long-term investments in individual stocks.

The increasing richness in volume, and especially types of data in the financial domain provides unprecedented opportunities to understand the stock market more comprehensively and makes the price prediction more accurate than before. However, they also bring challenges to classic statistic approaches since those models might be constrained to a certain type of data. Aiming at aggregating differently sourced information and offering type-free capability to existing models, a framework for predicting stock market of scenarios with mixed data, including scalar data, compositional data (pie-like) and functional data (curve-like), is established. The presented framework is model-independent, as it serves like an interface to multiple types of data and can be combined with various prediction models. And it is proved to be effective through numerical simulations. Regarding to price prediction, we incorporate the trading volume (scalar data), intraday return series (functional data), and investors' emotions from social media (compositional data) through the framework to competently forecast whether the market goes up or down at opening in the next day. The strong explanatory power of the framework is further demonstrated. Specifically, it is found that the intraday returns impact the following opening prices differently between bearish market and bullish market. And it is not at the beginning of the bearish market but the subsequent period in which the investors' "fear" comes to be indicative. The framework would help extend existing prediction models easily to scenarios with multiple types of data and shed light on a more systemic understanding of the stock market.

Rumor spreading on online social media is presenting a significant threat to society of post-truth epoch. Extensive efforts have been devoted to rumor identification and debunking, assuming that a specific rumor propagation is a single event network and neglecting possible interdependence between different rumor cascades. Here we study the collective propagation of multiple rumors, and surprisingly find a network of users that repeatedly participate in different rumor cascades. Though these repetitive users demonstrate minor difference at the level of single propagation network, they are found to form a significantly more intensive collaboration network from multiple rumor cascades compared to news propagation. The clique-like cluster formed by repetitive rumor spreaders can serve as a high quality feature for rumor identification and blocking targets for rumor prevention. Our findings can provide a better understanding of rumor spread by viewing multiple rumor propagations as one interacting rumor ecosystem, and suggest novel methods for distinguishing and mitigation based on rumor spreading history., Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures

The workforce remains the most basic element of social production, even in modern societies. Its migration, especially for developing economies such as China, plays a strong role in the reallocation of productive resources and offers a promising proxy for understanding socio-economic issues. Nevertheless, due to long cycle, expensive cost and coarse granularity, conventional surveys face challenges in comprehensively profiling it. With the permeation of smart and mobile devices in recent decades, booming social media has essentially broken spatio-temporal constraints and enabled the continuous sensing of the real-time mobility of massive numbers of individuals. In this study, we demonstrate that similar to a natural shock, the Spring Festival culturally drives workforce travel between workplaces and hometowns, and the trajectory footprints from social media therefore open a window with unparalleled richness and fine granularity to explore laws in national-level workforce migration. To understand the core driving forces of workforce migration flux between cities in China, various indicators reflecting the benefits and costs of migration are introduced into our prediction model. We find that urban GDP (gross domestic product) and travel time are two excellent indicators to help make predictions. Diverse migration patterns are then revealed by clustering the trajectories, which give important clues to help understand the different roles of Chinese cities in their own development and in regional economic development. These patterns are further explained as a joint effect of the subjective will to seek personal benefits and the capacity requirements of local labour markets. Our study implies that the non-negligible entanglement between social media and macroeconomic behaviours can be insightful for policymaking in social-economic issues., Comment: Datasets can be freely downloaded through https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5513620.v2

Social media can be a double-edged sword for society, either as a convenient channel exchanging ideas or as an unexpected conduit circulating fake news through a large population. While existing studies of fake news focus on theoretical modeling of propagation or identification methods based on machine learning, it is important to understand the realistic mechanisms between theoretical models and black-box methods. Here we track large databases of fake news and real news in both, Weibo in China and Twitter in Japan from different culture, which include their complete traces of re-postings. We find in both online social networks that fake news spreads distinctively from real news even at early stages of propagation, e.g. five hours after the first re-postings. Our finding demonstrates collective structural signals that help to understand the different propagation evolution of fake news and real news. Different from earlier studies, identifying the topological properties of the information propagation at early stages may offer novel features for early detection of fake news in social media., Comment: 35pages, 6 groups of figures

The imbalance of buying and selling functions profoundly in the formation of market trends, however, a fine-granularity investigation of the imbalance is still missing. This paper investigates a unique transaction dataset that enables us to inspect the imbalance of buying and selling on the man-times level at high frequency, what we call 'trading polarity', for a large cross-section of stocks from Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The trading polarity measures the market sentiment toward stocks from a view of very essence of trading desire. When using the polarity to examine market crash, we find that trading polarity successfully reflects the changing of market-level behavior in terms of its flipping times, depth, and length. We further investigate the relationship between polarity and return. At market-level, trading polarity is negatively correlated with returns, while at stock-level, this correlation changes according to market conditions, which becomes a good signal of market psychology transition. Also, the significant correlation disclosed by the market polarity and market emotion implies that our presented polarity, which essentially calculated in the context of high-frequency trading data, can real-timely reflect the sentiment of the market. The trading polarity indeed provides a new way to understand and foresee the market behavior., Comment: The data set can be freely downloaded through: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5835936.v1

Homophily, ranging from demographics to sentiments, breeds connections in social networks, either offline or online. However, with the prosperous growth of music streaming service, whether homophily exists in online music listening remains unclear. In this study, two online social networks of a same group of active users are established respectively in Netease Music and Weibo. Through presented multiple similarity measures, it is evidently demonstrated that homophily does exist in music listening of both online social networks. The unexpected music similarity in Weibo also implies that knowledge from generic social networks can be confidently transfered to domain-oriented networks for context enrichment and algorithm enhancement. Comprehensive factors that might function in formation of homophily are further probed and many interesting patterns are profoundly revealed. It is found that female friends are more homogeneous in music listening and positive and energetic songs significantly pull users close. Our methodology and findings would shed lights on realistic applications in online music services.

Recent studies suggest that human emotions diffuse in not only real-world communities but also online social media. More and more mechanisms beyond emotion contagion are revealed, including emotion correlations which indicate their influence and the coupling of emotion diffusion and network structure such as tie strength. Besides, different emotions might even compete in shaping the public opinion. However, a comprehensive model that considers up-to-date findings to replicate the patterns of emotion contagion in online social media is still missing. In this paper, to bridge this vital gap, we propose an agent-based emotion contagion model which combines features of emotion influence and tie strength preference in the dissemination process. The simulation results indicate that anger-dominated users have higher vitality than joy-dominated ones, and anger prefers weaker ties than joy in diffusion, which could make it easier to spread between online groups. Moreover, anger's high influence makes it competitive and easily to dominate the community, especially when negative public events occur. It is also surprisingly revealed that as the ratio of anger approaches joy with a gap less than 10%, angry tweets and users will eventually dominate the online social media and arrives the collective outrage in the cyber space. The critical gap disclosed here can be indeed warning signals at early stages for outrage controlling in online social media. All the parameters of the presented model can be easily estimated from the empirical observations and their values from historical data could help reproduce the emotion contagion of different circumstances. Our model would shed lights on the study of multiple issues like forecasting of emotion contagion in terms of computer simulations., Comment: The data set and the code are both publicly available

The crowd panic and its contagion play non-negligible roles at the time of the stock crash, especially for China where inexperienced investors dominate the market. However, existing models rarely consider investors in networking stocks and accordingly miss the exact knowledge of how panic contagion leads to abrupt crash. In this paper, by networking stocks of sharing common mutual funds, a new methodology of investigating the market crash is presented. It is surprisingly revealed that the herding, which origins in the mimic of seeking for high diversity across investment strategies to lower individual risk, will produce too-connected-to-fail stocks and reluctantly boosts the systemic risk of the entire market. Though too-connected stocks might be relatively stable during the crisis, they are so influential that a small downward fluctuation will cascade to trigger severe drops of massive successor stocks, implying that their falls might be unexpectedly amplified by the collective panic and result in the market crash. Our findings suggest that the whole picture of portfolio strategy has to be carefully supervised to reshape the stock network.

How the online social media, like Twitter or its variant Weibo, interacts with the stock market and whether it can be a convincing proxy to predict the stock market have been debated for years, especially for China. As the traditional theory in behavioral finance states, the individual emotions can influence decision-makings of investors, it is reasonable to further explore these controversial topics systematically from the perspective of online emotions, which are richly carried by massive tweets in social media. Through thorough studies on over 10 million stock-relevant tweets and 3 million investors from Weibo, it is revealed that inexperienced investors with high emotional volatility are more sensible to the market fluctuations than the experienced or institutional ones, and their dominant occupation also indicates that the Chinese market might be more emotional as compared to its western counterparts. Then both correlation analysis and causality test demonstrate that five attributes of the stock market in China can be competently predicted by various online emotions, like disgust, joy, sadness and fear. Specifically, the presented prediction model significantly outperforms the baseline model, including the one taking purely financial time series as input features, on predicting five attributes of the stock market under the $K$-means discretization. We also employ this prediction model in the scenario of realistic online application and its performance is further testified., Comment: This an extended version our conference paper titled "Can online emotions predict the stock market in China?" in WISE 2016 [arXiv:1604.07529]

Being dominant factors driving the human actions, personalities can be excellent indicators in predicting the offline and online behavior of different individuals. However, because of the great expense and inevitable subjectivity in questionnaires and surveys, it is challenging for conventional studies to explore the connection between personality and behavior and gain insights in the context of large amount individuals. Considering the more and more important role of the online social media in daily communications, we argue that the footprint of massive individuals, like tweets in Weibo, can be the inspiring proxy to infer the personality and further understand its functions in shaping the online human behavior. In this study, a map from self-reports of personalities to online profiles of 293 active users in Weibo is established to train a competent machine learning model, which then successfully identifies over 7,000 users as extroverts or introverts. Systematical comparisons from perspectives of tempo-spatial patterns, online activities, emotion expressions and attitudes to virtual honor surprisingly disclose that the extrovert indeed behaves differently from the introvert in Weibo. Our findings provide solid evidence to justify the methodology of employing machine learning to objectively study personalities of massive individuals and shed lights on applications of probing personalities and corresponding behaviors solely through online profiles., Comment: Datasets of this study can be freely downloaded through: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4765150.v1

Recent decades have witnessed the tremendous development of network science, which indeed brings a new and insightful language to model real systems of different domains. Betweenness, a widely employed centrality in network science, is a decent proxy in investigating network loads and rankings. However, the extremely high computational cost greatly prevents its applying on large networks. Though several parallel algorithms have been presented to reduce its calculation cost on unweighted networks, a fast solution for weighted networks, which are in fact more ubiquitous than unweighted ones in reality, is still missing. In this study, we develop an efficient parallel GPU-based approach to boost the calculation of betweenness centrality on very large and weighted networks. Comprehensive and systematic evaluations on both synthetic and real-world networks demonstrate that our solution can arrive the performance of 30x to 150x speedup over the CPU implementation by integrating the work-efficient and warp-centric strategies. Our algorithm is completely open-sourced and free to the community and it is public available through https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4542405. Considering the pervasive deployment and declining price of GPU on personal computers and servers, our solution will indeed offer unprecedented opportunities for exploring the betweenness related problems in network science., Comment: The source code of the study can be downloaded through https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4542405. Any issues please feel free to contact jichang@buaa.edu.cn

Increasing evidence suggests that, similar to face-to-face communications, human emotions also spread in online social media. However, the mechanisms underlying this emotional contagion, for example, whether different feelings spread in unlikely ways or how the spread of emotions relates to the social network, is rarely investigated. Indeed, because of high costs and spatio-temporal limitations, explorations of this topic are challenging using conventional questionnaires or controlled experiments. Because they are collection points for natural affective responses of massive individuals, online social media sites offer an ideal proxy for tackling this issue from the perspective of computational social science. In this paper, based on the analysis of millions of tweets in Weibo, surprisingly, we find that anger is more contagious than joy, indicating that it can spark more angry follow-up tweets. Moreover, regarding dissemination in social networks, anger travels easily along weaker ties than joy, meaning that it can infiltrate different communities and break free of local traps because strangers share such content more often. Through a simple diffusion model, we reveal that greater contagion and weaker ties function cooperatively to speed up anger's spread. The diffusion of real-world events with different dominant emotions provides further testimony to the findings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that quantitative long-term evidence has been presented that reveals a difference in the mechanism by which joy and anger are disseminated. Our findings shed light on both personal anger management in human communications and on controlling collective outrage in cyberspace., Comment: All the data sets can be public available through https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4311920

A sleeping beauty in diffusion indicates that the information, can be ideas or innovations, will experience a hibernation before a sudden spike of popularity and it is widely found in citation history of scientific publications. However, in this study, we demonstrate that the sleeping beauty is an interesting and unexceptional phenomenon in information diffusion and even more inspiring, there exist two consecutive sleeping beauties in the entire lifetime of propagation, suggesting that the information, including scientific topics, search queries or Wikipedia entries, which we call memes, will go unnoticed for a period and suddenly attracts some attention, and then it falls asleep again and later wakes up with another unexpected popularity peak. Further explorations on this phenomenon show that intervals between two wake ups follow an exponential distribution and the second wake up generally reaches its peak at a higher velocity. In addition, higher volume of the first wake up will lead to even much higher popularity of the second wake up with great odds. Taking these findings into consideration, an upgraded Bass model is presented to well describe the diffusion dynamics of memes on different media. Our results can help understand the common mechanism behind propagation of different memes and are instructive to locate the tipping point in marketing or find innovative publications in science., Comment: Any issues please feel free to contact Jichang Zhao by email jichang@buaa.edu.cn. Datasets and code can be freely downloaded through: https://figshare.com/articles/Meme_popularity_and_diffusion/3187159/1

Whether the online social media, like Twitter or its variant Weibo, can be a convincing proxy to predict the stock market has been debated for years, especially for China. However, as the traditional theory in behavioral finance states, the individual emotions can influence decision-making of investors, so it is reasonable to further explore this controversial topic from the perspective of online emotions, which is richly carried by massive tweets in social media. Surprisingly, through thorough study on over 10 million stock-relevant tweets from Weibo, both correlation analysis and causality test show that five attributes of the stock market in China can be competently predicted by various online emotions, like disgust, joy, sadness and fear. Specifically, the presented model significantly outperforms the baseline solutions on predicting five attributes of the stock market under the $K$-means discretization. We also employ this model in the scenario of realistic online application and its performance is further testified.

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behavior of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the center of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict and mitigate the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems.