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Energy security is a critical component of national security and a prerequisite for the green and low-carbon transition of the energy system. The concept of energy security has broadened from a traditional focus on fossil fuel supply to include the stable supply and sustainable utilization of energy resources. This study constructs a new energy security assessment framework targeting green and low-carbon transition, analyzing the evolution of energy security in 18 countries worldwide. The findings are as follows: (1) within a diversified evaluation system aligned with green and low-carbon objectives, energy security has significantly improved in countries with limited oil and gas resources, such as the United Kingdom, Japan, and China. Conversely, the dominant position of countries like the United Arab Emirates and Russia in the international energy market has been reduced. Continued development in renewable energy will reinforce this trend. (2) A strong positive correlation exists between energy security and sustainable development levels in the context of a green and low-carbon transition. Countries with higher sustainability levels have greater advantages in the energy transition process. (3) Sensitivity analysis reveals that although fossil fuel supply remains a key factor in energy security, the importance of diversified supply and sustainable utilization has significantly increased. Therefore, it is recommended that China seize the transition opportunity by leveraging China’s resource advantages in renewable energy, enhancing the energy governance system, and focusing on sustainable development. These actions will improve energy security and support China in increasing its influence and proactivity in the international energy market.

The lifestyle changes of China's emerging middle-income group have raised severe concerns about growing carbon emissions while stimulating consumption. Converting qualitative concerns to quantitative understanding provides supporting information for national climate change mitigation and facilitates targeted mitigation measures for distinct consumer groups. This study developed a consumption pattern prediction model based on household micro-survey data and machine learning algorithms. Combining this model with the input-output table disaggregation method, it incorporated the heterogeneity of household consumption choices into the macro-simulation of environmental impact assessment. The study used this tool to assess the carbon emissions brought by the emerging middle-income group and compare the impact differences under various policy scenarios. The results showed that: (J) If the scale of the middle-income group doubled during 2018 - 2030 (i.e., a 24% increase in the share of the national population with an annual income of ¥33 000 _ 80 000 at constant 2018 prices), the consumption upgrade of the emerging middle-income groups would bring an additional carbon emission of 0.27 - 0.36 billion tons in 2030. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, the mitigation rate needed to increase by 8% _ 11% to offset the emission increase. © In the case where only the impacts of income increases were considered, the emerging middle-income group's carbon emissions were significantly lower than those of the original middle-income group (a difference of 0.2 -0.3 t at the per-capita level). The gaps implied the potential to collaboratively achieve income growth and carbon emission control by climbing the income ladder. © Compared with the scenarios of enhancing human capital and improving social security, the impact of carbon emissions brought by the emerging middle-income group under the urbanization scenario was greater. Moreover, the carbon emission increment under policy mix scenarios was not equivalent to the sum of the effects brought about by independent policies. The mix of these policies showed synergetic or counterproductive effects, depending on the policy implementation context. The study suggests that timely seizing the plasticity in the consumption transformation of China's middle-income group and guiding this group to low-carbon lifestyles through improving urban infrastructure and other measures in the process of urbanization are key to collaboratively achieving the goals of common prosperity and carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The compilation of technology lists of addressing climate change has guiding effect on promoting technological research and development, demonstration and popularization. It is also crucial for China to strengthen ecological civilization construction, achieve the carbon emission peak and carbon neutral target, and enhance global climate governance capabilities. This study first proposes the existing classification outline of the technology promotion lists, technology demand lists and future technology lists. Then, different methodologies are integrated on the basis of the existing outline of four technology lists: China's existing technological promotion list for addressing climate change, China's demand list for climate change mitigation technology, China's key technology list for addressing climate change, and China's future technology list for addressing climate change. What's more, core technologies are analyzed in the aspects of technology maturity, carbon reduction cost, carbon reduction potential, economic benefits, social influence, uncertainty, etc. The results show that: key industries and sectors in China already have relatively mature mitigation/adaptation technologies to support the achievement of climate change targets. The multi-sectoral system of promoting climate-friendly technologies has been established, which has played an active role in tackling climate change. Currently, climate technology needs are concentrated in the traditional technology and equipment upgrading, renewable energy technology and management decision-making support technology. The key technologies are concentrated in 3 major areas and 12 technological directions that urgently need a breakthrough. For carbon emmission peak and carbon nentrality, carbon depth reduction/zero carbon emissions and geoengineering technology ( CDR and SRM) have played an important role in forming the structure of global emissions and achieving carbon neutrality in the future. Thus, the uncertainty assessment for the comprehensive technology cost-effectiveness, technology integration direction, technical maturity, ethics and ecological impacts is supportive to the national technology strategy. Finally, the presented study proposes several policy suggestions for medium-and long-term technology deployment, improving technology conversion rate, promoting the research and development of key core technologies, and forming a technology list collaborative update and release mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key climate policy issue and debate is the future trajectory of emissions of carbon dioxide of countries, their peaking dates, and rates of decline after peaking. This article analyses China’s emissions trajectory in terms of global historical trends distinguishing between industry, infrastructure, and urbanization. Growth of emissions from industrialization and infrastructure development has stabilized in 2014 with saturation levels being reached, while the process of urbanization continues with the shift of the economy to the services sector, with reduced energy use, and this is a global trend. The future trajectory of emissions will be shaped largely by growth of transport and building-related services which directly impact on and are shaped by middle-class levels of well-being. These are areas where convergence with levels of services in other urbanized countries is an important element of national policy. This global trend has not been adequately taken into account in modelling and macroeconomic analysis which ignore social processes. The article concludes that China’s 13th Five Year Plan (2016–2020) seeks to achieve a ‘moderately well-off society’ while putting a cap on total energy demand by modifying the drivers of consumption emissions compared with countries that urbanized earlier. The adoption of a public policy priority of dense mixed-use urban form, public transport, energy efficiency to enable energy system reform, and digital economy could be a model for others. Policy relevance The article redefines climate change in terms of social processes as urban form and notions of well-being lock-in increasing levels of future emissions of carbon dioxide. There are implications for research in assessing how best drivers of emissions can be modified without affecting well-being, including renewable and digital technologies and human behaviours that drive patterns of natural resource use as well as the identification of leverage points. There are also broader implications for replacing the development cooperation model of global climate governance to focus on new values recognizing interdependencies for sharing responsibility as well as prosperity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]