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Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a class of Bayesian inference algorithms that targets for problems with intractable or {unavailable} likelihood function. It uses synthetic data drawn from the simulation model to approximate the posterior distribution. However, ABC is computationally intensive for complex models in which simulating synthetic data is very expensive. In this article, we propose an early rejection Markov chain Monte Carlo (ejMCMC) sampler based on Gaussian processes to accelerate inference speed. We early reject samples in the first stage of the kernel using a discrepancy model, in which the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is modeled by Gaussian process (GP). Hence, the synthetic data is generated only if the parameter space is worth exploring. We demonstrate from theory, simulation experiments, and real data analysis that the new algorithm significantly improves inference efficiency compared to existing early-rejection MCMC algorithms. In addition, we employ our proposed method within an ABC sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler. In our numerical experiments, we use examples of ordinary differential equations, stochastic differential equations, and delay differential equations to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. We develop an R package that is available at https://github.com/caofff/ejMCMC.

This paper examines an efficient method for quasi-random sampling of copulas in Monte Carlo computations. Traditional methods, like conditional distribution methods (CDM), have limitations when dealing with high-dimensional or implicit copulas, which refer to those that cannot be accurately represented by existing parametric copulas. Instead, this paper proposes the use of generative models, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), to generate quasi-random samples for any copula. GANs are a type of implicit generative models used to learn the distribution of complex data, thus facilitating easy sampling. In our study, GANs are employed to learn the mapping from a uniform distribution to copulas. Once this mapping is learned, obtaining quasi-random samples from the copula only requires inputting quasi-random samples from the uniform distribution. This approach offers a more flexible method for any copula. Additionally, we provide theoretical analysis of quasi-Monte Carlo estimators based on quasi-random samples of copulas. Through simulated and practical applications, particularly in the field of risk management, we validate the proposed method and demonstrate its superiority over various existing methods., Comment: 42 pages, 5 figures

Shapley value is originally a concept in econometrics to fairly distribute both gains and costs to players in a coalition game. In the recent decades, its application has been extended to other areas such as marketing, engineering and machine learning. For example, it produces reasonable solutions for problems in sensitivity analysis, local model explanation towards the interpretable machine learning, node importance in social network, attribution models, etc. However, its heavy computational burden has been long recognized but rarely investigated. Specifically, in a $d$-player coalition game, calculating a Shapley value requires the evaluation of $d!$ or $2^d$ marginal contribution values, depending on whether we are taking the permutation or combination formulation of the Shapley value. Hence it becomes infeasible to calculate the Shapley value when $d$ is reasonably large. A common remedy is to take a random sample of the permutations to surrogate for the complete list of permutations. We find an advanced sampling scheme can be designed to yield much more accurate estimation of the Shapley value than the simple random sampling (SRS). Our sampling scheme is based on combinatorial structures in the field of design of experiments (DOE), particularly the order-of-addition experimental designs for the study of how the orderings of components would affect the output. We show that the obtained estimates are unbiased, and can sometimes deterministically recover the original Shapley value. Both theoretical and simulations results show that our DOE-based sampling scheme outperforms SRS in terms of estimation accuracy. Surprisingly, it is also slightly faster than SRS. Lastly, real data analysis is conducted for the C. elegans nervous system and the 9/11 terrorist network.

Graph classification, aiming at learning the graph-level representations for effective class assignments, has received outstanding achievements, which heavily relies on high-quality datasets that have balanced class distribution. In fact, most real-world graph data naturally presents a long-tailed form, where the head classes occupy much more samples than the tail classes, it thus is essential to study the graph-level classification over long-tailed data while still remaining largely unexplored. However, most existing long-tailed learning methods in visions fail to jointly optimize the representation learning and classifier training, as well as neglect the mining of the hard-to-classify classes. Directly applying existing methods to graphs may lead to sub-optimal performance, since the model trained on graphs would be more sensitive to the long-tailed distribution due to the complex topological characteristics. Hence, in this paper, we propose a novel long-tailed graph-level classification framework via Collaborative Multi-expert Learning (CoMe) to tackle the problem. To equilibrate the contributions of head and tail classes, we first develop balanced contrastive learning from the view of representation learning, and then design an individual-expert classifier training based on hard class mining. In addition, we execute gated fusion and disentangled knowledge distillation among the multiple experts to promote the collaboration in a multi-expert framework. Comprehensive experiments are performed on seven widely-used benchmark datasets to demonstrate the superiority of our method CoMe over state-of-the-art baselines., Comment: Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Big Data (TBD 2024)

Subsampling or subdata selection is a useful approach in large-scale statistical learning. Most existing studies focus on model-based subsampling methods which significantly depend on the model assumption. In this paper, we consider the model-free subsampling strategy for generating subdata from the original full data. In order to measure the goodness of representation of a subdata with respect to the original data, we propose a criterion, generalized empirical F-discrepancy (GEFD), and study its theoretical properties in connection with the classical generalized L2-discrepancy in the theory of uniform designs. These properties allow us to develop a kind of low-GEFD data-driven subsampling method based on the existing uniform designs. By simulation examples and a real case study, we show that the proposed subsampling method is superior to the random sampling method. Moreover, our method keeps robust under diverse model specifications while other popular subsampling methods are under-performing. In practice, such a model-free property is more appealing than the model-based subsampling methods, where the latter may have poor performance when the model is misspecified, as demonstrated in our simulation studies.

Computer experiments with both qualitative and quantitative input variables occur frequently in many scientific and engineering applications. How to choose input settings for such experiments is an important issue for accurate statistical analysis, uncertainty quantification and decision making. Sliced Latin hypercube designs are the first systematic approach to address this issue. However, it comes with the increasing cost associated with an increasing large number of level combinations of the qualitative factors. For the reason of run size economy, marginally coupled designs were proposed in which the design for the quantitative factors is a sliced Latin hypercube design with respect to each qualitative factor. The drawback of such designs is that the corresponding data may not be able to capture the effects between any two (and more) qualitative factors and quantitative factors. To balance the run size and design efficiency, we propose a new type of designs, doubly coupled designs, where the design points for the quantitative factors form a sliced Latin hypercube design with respect to the levels of any qualitative factor and with respect to the level combinations of any two qualitative factors, respectively. The proposed designs have the better stratification property between the qualitative and quantitative factors compared with marginally coupled designs. The existence of the proposed designs is established. Several construction methods are introduced, and the properties of the resulting designs are also studied., Comment: Statistica Sinica (2021)

The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously diagnosed cases, which provides a priori information about the true numbers of infections. This motivates us to develop a new, two-stage sampling method in this paper, which utilises the information about the distributions of both population and diagnosed cases, to investigate the prevalence more efficiently. The global likelihood sampling, a robust and efficient sampler to draw samples from any probability density function, is used in our sampling strategy, and thus, our new method can automatically adapt to the complicated distributions of population and cases. Moreover, the corresponding estimating method is simple, which facilitates the practical implementation. Some recommendations for practical implementation are given. Finally, several simulations and a practical example verified its efficiency.

Experiments with both qualitative and quantitative factors occur frequently in practical applications. Many construction methods for this kind of designs, such as marginally coupled designs, were proposed to pursue some good space-filling structures. However, few criteria can be adapted to quantify the space-filling property of designs involving both qualitative and quantitative factors. As the uniformity is an important space-filling property of a design, in this paper, a new uniformity criterion, qualitative-quantitative discrepancy (QQD), is proposed for assessing the uniformity of designs with both types of factors. The closed form and lower bounds of the QQD are presented to calculate the exact QQD values of designs and recognize the uniform designs directly. In addition, a connection between the QQD and the balance pattern is derived, which not only helps to obtain a new lower bound but also provides a statistical justification of the QQD. Several examples show that the proposed criterion is reasonable and useful since it can distinguish distinct designs very well.