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Background: Many studies have shown that carotenoids are beneficial to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Therefore, we explored potential biomarkers of gut microbiota and fecal and serum metabolites linking the association between serum carotenoids and NAFLD in adults., Methods: This 7.8-year prospective study included 2921 participants with serum carotenoids at baseline and determined NAFLD by ultrasonography (ULS-NAFLD) every 3 years. A total of 828 subjects additionally underwent magnetic resonance imaging to identify NAFLD (MRI-NAFLD). Gut microbiota was analyzed by 16S rRNA sequencing in 1,661 participants, and targeted metabolomics profiling in 893 feces and 896 serum samples was performed by ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) in the middle term., Results: A total of 2,522 participants finished follow-up visits. Of these participants, 770, 301, 474, and 977 were categorized into NAFLD-free, improved, new-onset, and persistent NAFLD groups based on their ULS-NAFLD status changes, respectively, and 342/828 were MRI-verified NALFD. Longitudinal analyses showed an inverse association between carotenoids and NALFD risk/presence (P -trend <0.05). Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs)/hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] of NAFLD for quartile 4 ( vs. quartile 1) of total carotenoids were 0.63 (0.50, 0.80) for incident ULS-NAFLD, 0.20 (0.15, 0.27) for persistent ULS-NAFLD, 1.53 (1.10, 2.12) for improved-NAFLD, and 0.58 (0.39, 0.87) for MRI-NAFLD. The biomarkers in the gut-liver axis significantly associated with both serum carotenoids and NAFLD included sixteen microbial genera mainly in Ruminococcaceae and Veillonellaceae family, nineteen fecal metabolites containing medium-chain fatty acids (MCFAs), bile acids, and carnitines, and sixteen serum metabolites belonging to organic acids and amino acids. The total carotenoids-related scores of significant microbial genera, fecal and serum metabolites mediated the carotenoids-NAFLD association by 8.72%, 12.30%, and 16.83% (all P<0.05) for persistent NAFLD and 9.46%, 8.74%, and 15.7% for incident-NAFLD, respectively., Conclusions: Our study reveals a beneficial association of serum carotenoids and incident and persistent NAFLD. The identified gut-liver axis biomarkers provided mechanistic linkage for the epidemiological association., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://hbsn.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/hbsn-23-526/coif). The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2025 AME Publishing Company. All rights reserved.)