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Aim: To examine psychosocial and behavioural impacts of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and lockdown restrictions among adults with type 2 diabetes. Methods: Participants enrolled in the PRogrEssion of DIabetic ComplicaTions (PREDICT) cohort study in Melbourne, Australia (n = 489 with a baseline assessment pre-2020) were invited to complete a phone/online follow-up assessment in mid-2020 (i.e., amidst COVID-19 lockdown restrictions). Repeated assessments that were compared with pre-COVID-19 baseline levels included anxiety symptoms (7-item Generalised Anxiety Disorder scale [GAD-7]), depressive symptoms (8-item Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ-8]), diabetes distress (Problem Areas in Diabetes scale [PAID]), physical activity/sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption and diabetes self-management behaviours. Additional once-off measures at follow-up included COVID-19-specific worry, quality of life (QoL), and healthcare appointment changes (telehealth engagement and appointment cancellations/avoidance). Results: Among 470 respondents (96%; aged 66 ± 9 years, 69% men), at least ‘moderate’ worry about COVID-19 infection was reported by 31%, and 29%–73% reported negative impacts on QoL dimensions (greatest for: leisure activities, feelings about the future, emotional well-being). Younger participants reported more negative impacts (p < 0.05). Overall, anxiety/depressive symptoms were similar at follow-up compared with pre-COVID-19, but diabetes distress reduced (p < 0.001). Worse trajectories of anxiety/depressive symptoms were observed among those who reported COVID-19-specific worry or negative QoL impacts (p < 0.05). Physical activity trended lower (~10%), but sitting time, alcohol consumption and glucose-monitoring frequency remained unchanged. 73% of participants used telehealth, but 43% cancelled a healthcare appointment and 39% avoided new appointments despite perceived need. Conclusions: COVID-19 lockdown restrictions negatively impacted Qo

BACKGROUND: Data on the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle-based diabetes prevention programs are mostly from high-income countries, which cannot be extrapolated to low- and middle-income countries. We performed a trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis of a lifestyle intervention targeted at preventing diabetes in India. METHODS: The Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program was a cluster-randomized controlled trial of 1007 individuals conducted in 60 polling areas (electoral divisions) in Kerala state. Participants (30-60 years) were those with a high diabetes risk score and without diabetes on an oral glucose tolerance test. The intervention group received a 12-month peer-support lifestyle intervention involving 15 group sessions delivered in community settings by trained lay peer leaders. There were also linked community activities to sustain behavior change. The control group received a booklet on lifestyle change. Costs were estimated from the health system and societal perspectives, with 2018 as the reference year. Effectiveness was measured in terms of the number of diabetes cases prevented and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Three times India's gross domestic product per capita (US$6108) was used as the cost-effectiveness threshold. The analyses were conducted with a 2-year time horizon. Costs and effects were discounted at 3% per annum. One-way and multi-way sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were similar in the two study groups. Over 2 years, the intervention resulted in an incremental health system cost of US$2.0 (intervention group: US$303.6; control group: US$301.6), incremental societal cost of US$6.2 (intervention group: US$367.8; control group: US$361.5), absolute risk reduction of 2.1%, and incremental QALYs of 0.04 per person. From a health system perspective, the cost per diabetes case prevented was US$95.2, and the cost per QALY gained was US$50.0. From a societal perspective, the corresponding figures were US$295.

Background: The role of chronic kidney disease (CKD) as a risk factor for cognitive impairment independent of their shared antecedents remains controversial. Objective: To determine whether kidney damage (indicated by albuminuria) or kidney dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 ml/min/1.73 m2) predict future (12-year) cognitive function independently of their shared risk factors. Methods: We studied 4,128 individuals from the 1999/00 population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study who returned in 2011/12 for follow-up cognitive function testing. Albuminuria was defined by urinary albumin:creatinine≥3.5 (women) or≥2.5 mg/mmol (men). Kidney dysfunction was indicated by eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Cognitive function domains assessed included memory (California Verbal Learning Test [CVLT]) and processing speed (Symbol Digit Modalities Test [SDMT]). Results: Baseline albuminuria and kidney dysfunction were identified in 142 (3.4%) and 39 (0.9%) individuals, respectively, with minimal overlap (n = 7). Those with albuminuria demonstrated concurrently reduced 12-year SDMT (p = 0.084) and CVLT scores (p = 0.005) following adjustment for age, sex, and education. However, only CVLT performance remained worse (p = 0.027) following additional adjustment for myocardial infarction, stroke, and related risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, BMI, physical activity, and alcohol intake). Indeed, these collective covariates were responsible for 47% of the effect of albuminuria on SDMT, but only 21% of its effect on CVLT. Kidney dysfunction was not associated with either SDMT or CVLT performance (p > 0.10). Conclusions: Albuminuria predicted worse memory function at 12 years follow-up, whereas its effect on processing speed was driven largely by differences in cardiovascular risk. Kidney dysfunction based on eGFR predicted neither cognitive domain.

BACKGROUND: The role of chronic kidney disease (CKD) as a risk factor for cognitive impairment independent of their shared antecedents remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether kidney damage (indicated by albuminuria) or kidney dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 ml/min/1.73 m2) predict future (12-year) cognitive function independently of their shared risk factors. METHODS: We studied 4,128 individuals from the 1999/00 population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study who returned in 2011/12 for follow-up cognitive function testing. Albuminuria was defined by urinary albumin:creatinine≥3.5 (women) or≥2.5 mg/mmol (men). Kidney dysfunction was indicated by eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Cognitive function domains assessed included memory (California Verbal Learning Test [CVLT]) and processing speed (Symbol Digit Modalities Test [SDMT]). RESULTS: Baseline albuminuria and kidney dysfunction were identified in 142 (3.4%) and 39 (0.9%) individuals, respectively, with minimal overlap (n = 7). Those with albuminuria demonstrated concurrently reduced 12-year SDMT (p = 0.084) and CVLT scores (p = 0.005) following adjustment for age, sex, and education. However, only CVLT performance remained worse (p = 0.027) following additional adjustment for myocardial infarction, stroke, and related risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, BMI, physical activity, and alcohol intake). Indeed, these collective covariates were responsible for 47% of the effect of albuminuria on SDMT, but only 21% of its effect on CVLT. Kidney dysfunction was not associated with either SDMT or CVLT performance (p > 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: Albuminuria predicted worse memory function at 12 years follow-up, whereas its effect on processing speed was driven largely by differences in cardiovascular risk. Kidney dysfunction based on eGFR predicted neither cognitive domain.

Background: The major efficacy trials on diabetes prevention have used resource-intensive approaches to identify high-risk individuals and deliver lifestyle interventions. Such strategies are not feasible for wider implementation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a peer-support lifestyle intervention in preventing type 2 diabetes among high-risk individuals identified on the basis of a simple diabetes risk score. Methods and findings: The Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program was a cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in 60 polling areas (clusters) of Neyyattinkara taluk (subdistrict) in Trivandrum district, Kerala state, India. Participants (age 30–60 years) were those with an Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) ≥60 and were free of diabetes on an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). A total of 1,007 participants (47.2% female) were enrolled (507 in the control group and 500 in the intervention group). Participants from intervention clusters participated in a 12-month community-based peer-support program comprising 15 group sessions (12 of which were led by trained lay peer leaders) and a range of community activities to support lifestyle change. Participants from control clusters received an education booklet with lifestyle change advice. The primary outcome was the incidence of diabetes at 24 months, diagnosed by an annual OGTT. Secondary outcomes were behavioral, clinical, and biochemical characteristics and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). A total of 964 (95.7%) participants were followed up at 24 months. Baseline characteristics of clusters and participants were similar between the study groups. After a median follow-up of 24 months, diabetes developed in 17.1% (79/463) of control participants and 14.9% (68/456) of intervention participants (relative risk [RR] 0.88, 95% CI 0.66–1.16, p = 0.36). At 24 months, compared with the control group, intervention participants had a greater red

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between type 2 diabetes and disability in Mauritius and to assess the extent to which the effect of diabetes is explained by diabetes risk factors and concomitant complications. METHODS: Data from a national survey in the multiethnic nation of Mauritius, which comprises South Asians and African Creoles, were analyzed. Disability was measured using the Katz activities of daily living questionnaire in participants aged >50 years. RESULTS: Among 3692 participants, 487 (13.2%) had some level of disability. Diabetes was associated with significantly higher risk of disability (odds ratio [OR] 1.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-2.08). After adjusting for demographic, behavioral, and metabolic factors, as well as comorbidities, disability was significantly associated with diabetes among African Creoles (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.16-3.56), but not South Asians (OR 1.27; 95% CI 0.98-1.66). Obesity explained much of the association between diabetes and disability (excess percentage of risk: 26.3% in South Asians and 12.1% in African Creoles). Obesity, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), asthma-like symptoms, and depression together explained 46.5% and 29.0% of the excess risk in South Asians and African Creoles, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes is associated with a 67% increased risk of disability. Diabetes risk factors and comorbidities explain more of the association between diabetes and disability among South Asians than Africans. Obesity and history of CVD explained the largest percentage of the relationship between diabetes and disability, indicating that weight and CVD management may be helpful in controlling disability related to diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The major efficacy trials on diabetes prevention have used resource-intensive approaches to identify high-risk individuals and deliver lifestyle interventions. Such strategies are not feasible for wider implementation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a peer-support lifestyle intervention in preventing type 2 diabetes among high-risk individuals identified on the basis of a simple diabetes risk score. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program was a cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in 60 polling areas (clusters) of Neyyattinkara taluk (subdistrict) in Trivandrum district, Kerala state, India. Participants (age 30-60 years) were those with an Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) ≥60 and were free of diabetes on an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). A total of 1,007 participants (47.2% female) were enrolled (507 in the control group and 500 in the intervention group). Participants from intervention clusters participated in a 12-month community-based peer-support program comprising 15 group sessions (12 of which were led by trained lay peer leaders) and a range of community activities to support lifestyle change. Participants from control clusters received an education booklet with lifestyle change advice. The primary outcome was the incidence of diabetes at 24 months, diagnosed by an annual OGTT. Secondary outcomes were behavioral, clinical, and biochemical characteristics and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). A total of 964 (95.7%) participants were followed up at 24 months. Baseline characteristics of clusters and participants were similar between the study groups. After a median follow-up of 24 months, diabetes developed in 17.1% (79/463) of control participants and 14.9% (68/456) of intervention participants (relative risk [RR] 0.88, 95% CI 0.66-1.16, p = 0.36). At 24 months, compared with the control group, intervention participants had a greater reduction in IDRS

AIMS: To examine the proportion of people with diabetes in the multi-ethnic country of Mauritius meeting American Diabetes Association targets in 2009 and 2015. METHODS: Data from independent population-based samples of 858 and 656 adults with diagnosed diabetes in 2009 and 2015, respectively, were analysed with regard to recommended American Diabetes Association targets for HbA1c , blood pressure and LDL cholesterol. RESULTS: In 2015 compared with 2009, the proportion of people achieving American Diabetes Association targets for glycaemic control in Mauritius was higher in women (P≤0.01) and in those with only a primary education level (P=0.07), but not in men or people with a higher level of education. Achievement of blood pressure <140/90 mmHg was higher in 2015 compared with 2009 (60% vs 42%) in people of South Asian ethnicity (P<0.001), but not in those of African ethnicity (P=0.16). The percentages of people with LDL cholesterol <2.59 mmol/l were 42.1% and 50.4%, in 2009 and 2015, respectively (P=0.27). Better control of HbA1c and blood pressure was observed in groups in which that control was poorest in 2009. The use of glucose-, blood pressure- and LDL cholesterol-lowering medication was higher in 2015 than in 2009. CONCLUSIONS: In certain subgroups, namely women, those with poorer education and those of South Asian ethnicity, whose target achievement was the poorest in 2009, control of glycaemia and blood pressure was better in 2015 as compared with 2009. While these findings are encouraging, further work is required to improve outcomes.

AIMS: To describe the baseline characteristics of participants in the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program. METHODS: The Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program is a cluster randomized controlled trial of lifestyle intervention for prevention of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in India. Participants in the study were those aged 30-60 years who had an Indian Diabetes Risk Score ≥ 60 and who were without Type 2 diabetes on oral glucose tolerance test. Data on demographic, lifestyle, clinical and biochemical characteristics were collected using standardized tools. RESULTS: A total of 2586 individuals were screened with the Indian Diabetes Risk Score, of these 1529 people (59.1%) had a score ≥ 60, of whom 1209 (79.1%) underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. A total of 202 individuals (16.7%) had undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes and were excluded, and the remaining 1007 individuals were enrolled in the trial (control arm, n = 507; intervention arm, n = 500). The mean participant age was 46.0 ± 7.5 years, and 47.2% were women. The mean Indian Diabetes Risk Score was 67.1 ± 8.4. More than two-thirds (69.0%) had prediabetes and 31.0% had normal glucose tolerance. The prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors was high, including current tobacco use (34.4% in men), current alcohol use (39.3% in men), no leisure time exercise (98.0%), no daily intake of fruit and vegetables (78.7%), family history of diabetes (47.9%), overweight or obesity (68.5%), hypertension (22.3%) and dyslipidemia (85.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program recruited participants using a diabetes risk score. A large proportion of the participants had prediabetes and there were high rates of cardiometabolic risk factors. The trial will evaluate the effectiveness of lifestyle intervention in a population selected on the basis of a diabetes risk score.

To further understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) susceptibility, we aggregated published meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), including 26,488 cases and 83,964 controls of European, east Asian, south Asian and Mexican and Mexican American ancestry. We observed a significant excess in the directional consistency of T2D risk alleles across ancestry groups, even at SNPs demonstrating only weak evidence of association. By following up the strongest signals of association from the trans-ethnic meta-analysis in an additional 21,491 cases and 55,647 controls of European ancestry, we identified seven new T2D susceptibility loci. Furthermore, we observed considerable improvements in the fine-mapping resolution of common variant association signals at several T2D susceptibility loci. These observations highlight the benefits of trans-ethnic GWAS for the discovery and characterization of complex trait loci and emphasize an exciting opportunity to extend insight into the genetic architecture and pathogenesis of human diseases across populations of diverse ancestry.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether glucose-independent differences in HbA1c exist between people of African, South Asian, and Chinese ethnicities. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from 6,701 people aged 19-78 years, without known diabetes, from Mauritius, and participating in the population-based Non-Communicable Disease Surveys of the main island and the island of Rodrigues were included. Participants were African (n = 1,219 from main island, n = 1,505 from Rodrigues), South Asian (n = 3,820), and Chinese (n = 157). Survey data included HbA1c, plasma glucose during oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT), anthropometry, demographics, and medical and lifestyle history. RESULTS: Mean HbA1c, after adjustment for fasting and 2-h plasma glucose and other factors known to influence HbA1c, was higher in Africans from Rodrigues (6.1%) than in South Asians (5.7%, P < 0.001), Chinese (5.7%, P < 0.001), or Africans from the main island of Mauritius (5.7%, P < 0.001). The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes among Africans from Rodrigues differed substantially depending on the diagnostic criteria used [OGTT 7.9% (95% CI 5.8-10.0); HbA1c 17.3% (15.3-19.2)]. Changing diagnostic criteria resulted in no significant change in the prevalence of diabetes within the other ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: People of African ethnicity from Rodrigues have higher HbA1c than those of South Asian or African ethnicity from the main island of Mauritius for reasons not explained by plasma glucose during an OGTT or traditional factors known to affect glycemia. Further research should be directed at determining the mechanism behind this disparity and its relevance to clinical outcomes.

Background The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain. Methods We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies. Results For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators. Conclusion Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases., Karl Michaëlsson (Department of Surgical Sciences, Orthopaedics, Uppsala University, Sweden) contributed to this study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of area-level socioeconomic status (SES) on the development of abnormal glucose metabolism (AGM) using national, population-based data. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study is a national, population-based, longitudinal study of adults aged ≥25 years. A sample of 4,572 people provided complete baseline (1999 to 2000) and 5-year follow-up (2004 to 2005) data relevant for these analyses. Incident AGM was assessed using fasting plasma glucose and 2-h plasma glucose from oral glucose tolerance tests, and demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data were collected by interview and questionnaire. Area SES was defined using the Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage. Generalized linear mixed models were used to examine the relationship between area SES and incident AGM, with adjustment for covariates and correction for cluster design effects. RESULTS: Area SES predicted the development of AGM, after adjustment for age, sex, and individual SES. People living in areas with the most disadvantage were significantly more likely to develop AGM, compared with those living in the least deprived areas (odds ratio 1.53; 95% CI 1.07–2.18). Health behaviors (in particular, physical activity) and central adiposity appeared to partially mediate this relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that characteristics of the physical, social, and economic aspects of local areas influence diabetes risk. Future research should focus on identifying the aspects of local environment that are associated with diabetes risk and how they might be modified.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies show breaking up prolonged sitting has beneficial associations with cardiometabolic risk markers, but intervention studies are required to investigate causality. We examined the acute effects on postprandial glucose and insulin levels of uninterrupted sitting compared with sitting interrupted by brief bouts of light- or moderate-intensity walking. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Overweight/obese adults (n = 19), aged 45-65 years, were recruited for a randomized three-period, three-treatment acute crossover trial: 1) uninterrupted sitting; 2) seated with 2-min bouts of light-intensity walking every 20 min; and 3) seated with 2-min bouts of moderate-intensity walking every 20 min. A standardized test drink was provided after an initial 2-h period of uninterrupted sitting. The positive incremental area under curves (iAUC) for glucose and insulin (mean [95% CI]) for the 5 h after the test drink (75 g glucose, 50 g fat) were calculated for the respective treatments. RESULTS: The glucose iAUC (mmol/L) · h after both activity-break conditions was reduced (light: 5.2 [4.1-6.6]; moderate: 4.9 [3.8-6.1]; both P < 0.01) compared with uninterrupted sitting (6.9 [5.5-8.7]). Insulin iAUC (pmol/L) · h was also reduced with both activity-break conditions (light: 633.6 [552.4-727.1]; moderate: 637.6 [555.5-731.9], P < 0.0001) compared with uninterrupted sitting (828.6 [722.0-950.9]). CONCLUSIONS: Interrupting sitting time with short bouts of light- or moderate-intensity walking lowers postprandial glucose and insulin levels in overweight/obese adults. This may improve glucose metabolism and potentially be an important public health and clinical intervention strategy for reducing cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND: Higher waist circumference and lower hip circumference are both associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, despite being directly correlated. The real effects of visceral obesity may therefore be underestimated when hip circumference is not fully taken into account. We hypothesized that adding waist and hip circumference to traditional risk factors would significantly improve CVD risk prediction. METHODS: In a population-based survey among South Asian and African Mauritians (n = 7978), 1241 deaths occurred during 15 years of follow-up. In a model that included variables used in previous CVD risk calculations (a Framingham-type model), the association between waist circumference and mortality was examined before and after adjustment for hip circumference. The percentage with an increase in estimated 10-year cumulative mortality of >25% and a decrease of >20% after waist and hip circumference were added to the model was calculated. RESULTS: Waist circumference was strongly related to mortality only after adjustment for hip circumference and vice versa. Adding waist and hip circumference to a Framingham-type model increased estimated 10-year cumulative CVD mortality by >25% for 23.7% of those who died and 15.7% of those censored. Cumulative mortality decreased by >20% for 4.5% of those who died and 14.8% of those censored. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of central obesity on mortality risk is seriously underestimated without adjustment for hip circumference. Adding waist and hip circumference to a Framingham-type model for CVD mortality substantially increased predictive power. Both may be important inclusions in CVD risk prediction models.

OBJECTIVE: Secular trends in the epidemiology of diabetes are best described by studying the same population over time, but few such studies exist. Using surveys from Mauritius in 1987 and 2009, we examined 1) the change in the prevalence of diabetes, 2) the extent to which changes in traditional diabetes risk factors explained the increase, and 3) the change in the distribution of plasma glucose levels over time. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Independent population-based surveys were undertaken in Mauritius in 1987 and 2009 using similar methodology in adults aged 20-74 years. Physical measurements and fasting blood samples were taken, and an oral glucose tolerance test was performed at both surveys. RESULTS: The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes in 2009 was 22.3% (95% CI 20.0-24.6) among men and 20.2% (18.3-22.3) among women, representing an increase since 1987 of 64 and 62% among men and women, respectively. Concurrent changes in the distribution of age, ethnicity, waist circumference, BMI, physical activity, smoking, family history of diabetes, and hypertension explained more of the increase in the prevalence of diabetes in men than in women. Increases in plasma glucose (especially fasting glucose) were seen across the population but were greater at the upper levels. CONCLUSIONS: In Mauritius, there has been a marked increase in diabetes prevalence over 22 years. This mainly results from changes in traditional risk factors, leading to population-wide increases in plasma glucose levels. Interventions to control this escalation of diabetes should focus on population-wide strategies.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The Finnish diabetes risk questionnaire is a widely used, simple tool for identification of those at risk for drug-treated type 2 diabetes. We updated the risk questionnaire by using clinically diagnosed and screen-detected type 2 diabetes instead of drug-treated diabetes as an endpoint and by considering additional predictors. METHODS: Data from 18,301 participants in studies of the Evaluation of Screening and Early Detection Strategies for Type 2 Diabetes and Impaired Glucose Tolerance (DETECT-2) project with baseline and follow-up information on oral glucose tolerance status were included. Incidence of type 2 diabetes within 5 years was used as the outcome variable. Improvement in discrimination and classification of the logistic regression model was assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve and by the net reclassification improvement. Internal validation was by bootstrapping techniques. RESULTS: Of the 18,301 participants, 844 developed type 2 diabetes in a period of 5 years (4.6%). The Finnish risk score had an area under the ROC curve of 0.742 (95% CI 0.726-0.758). Re-estimation of the regression coefficients improved the area under the ROC curve to 0.766 (95% CI 0.750-0.783). Additional items such as male sex, smoking and family history of diabetes (parent, sibling or both) improved the area under the ROC curve and net reclassification. Bootstrapping showed good internal validity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The predictive value of the original Finnish risk questionnaire could be improved by adding information on sex, smoking and family history of diabetes. The DETECT-2 update of the Finnish diabetes risk questionnaire is an adequate and robust predictor for future screen-detected and clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes in Europid populations.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate pedometer-measured physical activity (PA) in 2000 and change in PA over 5 years with subsequent risk of dysglycemia by 2005. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study in Tasmania, Australia, analyzed 458 adults with normal glucose tolerance and a mean (SD) age of 49.7 (12.1) years in 2000. Variables assessed in 2000 and 2005 included PA, by pedometer and questionnaire, nutrient intake, and other lifestyle factors. Incident dysglycemia was defined as the development of impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance revealed by oral glucose tolerance testing in 2005, without type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: Incident dysglycemia developed in 26 participants during the 5-year period. Higher daily steps in 2000 were independently associated with a lower 5-year risk of incident dysglycemia (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.87 [95% CI 0.77-0.97] per 1,000-step increment). Higher daily steps in 2005, after controlling for baseline steps in 2000 (thus reflecting change in steps over 5 years), were not associated with incident dysglycemia (AOR 1.02 [0.92-1.14]). Higher daily steps in 2000 were also associated with lower fasting blood glucose, but not 2-h plasma glucose by 2005. Further adjustment for BMI or waist circumference did not remove these associations. CONCLUSIONS: Among community-dwelling adults, a higher rate of daily steps is associated with a reduced risk of incident dysglycemia. This effect appears to be not fully mediated through reduced adiposity.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and dietary calcium predict incident type 2 diabetes and insulin sensitivity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 6,537 of the 11,247 adults evaluated in 1999-2000 in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, returned for oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in 2004-2005. We studied those without diabetes who had complete data at baseline (n = 5,200; mean age 51 years; 55% were women; 92% were Europids). Serum 25OHD and energy-adjusted calcium intake (food frequency questionnaire) were assessed at baseline. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between serum 25OHD and dietary calcium on 5-year incidence of diabetes (diagnosed by OGTT) and insulin sensitivity (homeostasis model assessment of insulin sensitivity [HOMA-S]), adjusted for multiple potential confounders, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG). RESULTS: During the 5-year follow-up, 199 incident cases of diabetes were diagnosed. Those who developed diabetes had lower serum 25OHD (mean 58 vs. 65 nmol/L; P < 0.001) and calcium intake (mean 881 vs. 923 mg/day; P = 0.03) compared with those who remained free of diabetes. Each 25 nmol/L increment in serum 25OHD was associated with a 24% reduced risk of diabetes (odds ratio 0.76 [95% CI 0.63-0.92]) after adjusting for age, waist circumference, ethnicity, season, latitude, smoking, physical activity, family history of diabetes, dietary magnesium, hypertension, serum triglycerides, and FPG. Dietary calcium intake was not associated with reduced diabetes risk. Only serum 25OHD was positively and independently associated with HOMA-S at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum 25OHD levels, but not higher dietary calcium, were associated with a significantly reduced risk of diabetes in Australian adult men and women.

BACKGROUND: Indigenous Australians have an incidence of end stage kidney disease 8-10 times higher than non-Indigenous Australians. The majority of research studies concerning Indigenous Australians have been performed in rural or remote regions, whilst the majority of Indigenous Australians actually live in urban settings. We studied prevalence and factors associated with markers of kidney disease in an urban Indigenous Australian cohort, and compared results with those for the general Australian population. METHODS: 860 Indigenous adult participants of the Darwin Region Urban Indigenous Diabetes (DRUID) Study were assessed for albuminuria (urine albumin-creatinine ratio≥2.5 mg/mmol males, ≥3.5 mg/mmol females) and low eGFR (estimated glomular filtration rate < 60 mls/min/1.73 m(2)). Associations between risk factors and kidney disease markers were explored. Comparison was made with the AusDiab cohort (n = 8,936 aged 25-64 years), representative of the general Australian adult population. RESULTS: A high prevalence of albuminuria (14.8%) was found in DRUID, whilst prevalence of low eGFR was 2.4%. Older age, higher HbA1c, hypertension, higher C-reactive protein and current smoking were independently associated with albuminuria on multiple regression. Low eGFR was independently associated with older age, hypertension, albuminuria and higher triglycerides. Compared to AusDiab participants, DRUID participants had a 3-fold higher adjusted risk of albuminuria but not of low eGFR. CONCLUSIONS: Given the significant excess of ESKD observed in Indigenous versus non-Indigenous Australians, these findings could suggest either: albuminuria may be a better prognostic marker of kidney disease than low eGFR; that eGFR equations may be inaccurate in the Indigenous population; a less marked differential between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians for ESKD rates in urban compared to remote regions; or that differences in the pathophysiology of chronic kidney disease exist betw

OBJECTIVE: Little information is available on the impact of abnormal glucose tolerance on mortality in South Asian and African populations in the developing world. We explored this issue in a large, multiethnic cohort from the developing nation of Mauritius. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Population-based surveys were undertaken in 1987, 1992, and 1998. The 9,559 participants (20-82 years old) comprised 66% South Asian (Indian), 27% Creole (African), and 7% Chinese descent. Mortality was ascertained in 2007. RESULTS: Over a median 15.1-year follow-up, 1,557 participants died. Compared with those with normal glucose tolerance, the all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HR) for known diabetes, newly diagnosed diabetes, and impaired glucose tolerance were 3.35 (95% CI 2.77-4.04), 2.11 (1.73-2.57), and 1.53 (1.26-1.87) in South Asians and 2.14 (1.65-2.79), 1.41 (1.06-1.88), and 1.08 (0.83-1.40) in Africans, respectively. Those with impaired fasting glucose were not at increased risk in either ethnicity. In the Chinese, only those with known diabetes were at increased risk of mortality with HR 3.68 (1.87-7.25). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study in a developing country of the impact of glucose intolerance on mortality in an African population, and one of the first studies of a South Asian population. It shows that the impact on mortality in these populations in Mauritius is comparable to that seen in developed countries. These results are important in a global context for future health policy in light of the impact of the rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes, especially in developing nations.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the associations of sitting time and television (TV) viewing time with continuously measured biomarkers of cardio-metabolic risk in Australian adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Waist circumference, BMI, resting blood pressure, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, fasting and 2-h postload plasma glucose, and fasting insulin were measured in 2,761 women and 2,103 men aged > or =30 years (mean age 54 years) without clinically diagnosed diabetes from the 2004-2005 Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study. Multivariate linear regression analyses examined associations of self-reported sitting time and TV viewing time (hours per day) with these biomarkers, adjusting for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: For both women and men, sitting time was detrimentally associated with waist circumference, BMI, systolic blood pressure, fasting triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, 2-h postload plasma glucose, and fasting insulin (all P < 0.05), but not with fasting plasma glucose and diastolic blood pressure (men only). With the exception of HDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure in women, the associations remained significant after further adjustment for waist circumference. TV viewing time was detrimentally associated with all metabolic measures in women and all except HDL cholesterol and blood pressure in men. Only fasting insulin and glucose (men only) remained deleteriously associated with TV viewing time after adjustment for waist circumference. CONCLUSIONS: In women and men, sitting time and TV viewing time were deleteriously associated with cardio-metabolic risk biomarkers, with sitting time having more consistent associations in both sexes and being independent of central adiposity. Preventive initiatives aimed at reducing sitting time should focus on both nonleisure and leisure-time domains.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the longitudinal association of components of health-related functioning (HRF) with incident impaired glucose metabolism and type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Australian Diabetes Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study is a national, longitudinal study of adults aged > or =25 years from 42 randomly selected areas of Australia. Diabetes status was defined using the World Health Organization criteria, and HRF was assessed using the SF-36 questionnaire in 1999-2000 and 2004-2005. RESULTS: Incident impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes were associated with increased bodily pain at baseline compared with those with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) (IFG P = 0.005, IGT P < 0.004, and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes P = 0.005), after adjustment. In addition, those with incident IGT and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes had significantly reduced physical functioning, general health, mental health, and vitality at baseline compared with those with NGT. After we controlled for factors associated with incident diabetes, those in the lowest quartile of the physical component summary scale at baseline had at least a 50% higher risk of progression to impaired glucose metabolism and diabetes 5 years later. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that incident IFG, IGT, and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes are associated with reduced HRF independent of cardiovascular disease and that this is evident before the onset of these conditions. If future health promotion campaigns are to effectively target those at high risk of developing diabetes, an understanding of the process of declining health before onset of the disease is essential.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how fitness in both childhood and adulthood is associated with adult obesity and insulin resistance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study set in Australia in 2004-2006 followed up a cohort of 647 adults who had participated in the Australian Schools Health and Fitness Survey in 1985 and who had undergone anthropometry and cardiorespiratory fitness assessment during the survey. Outcome measures were insulin resistance and obesity, defined as a homeostasis model assessment index above the 75th sex-specific percentile and BMI >or=30 kg/m(2), respectively. RESULTS: Lower levels of child cardiorespiratory fitness were associated with increased odds of adult obesity (adjusted odds ratio [OR] per unit decrease 3.0 [95% CI 1.6-5.6]) and insulin resistance (1.7 [1.1-2.6]). A decline in fitness level between childhood and adulthood was associated with increased obesity (4.5 [2.6-7.7]) and insulin resistance (2.1 [1.5-2.9]) per unit decline. CONCLUSIONS: A decline in fitness from childhood to adulthood, and by inference a decline in physical activity, is associated with obesity and insulin resistance in adulthood. Programs aimed at maintaining high childhood physical activity levels into adulthood may have potential for reducing the burden of obesity and type 2 diabetes in adults.