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The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study fills a notable literature gap by exploring the following question: Is it possible to incorporate a nonparametric susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) COVID-19 model into the inverse-problem regularization framework when the transmission coefficient varies over time? Our positive response considers varying degrees of disease severity, vaccination, and other time-dependent parameters. In addition, we demonstrate the continuity, differentiability, and injectivity of the operator that link the transmission parameter to the observed infection numbers. By employing Tikhonov-type regularization to the corresponding inverse problem, we establish the existence and stability of regularized solutions. Numerical examples using both synthetic and real data illustrate the model's estimation accuracy and its ability to fit the data effectively., Comment: 35 pages, 6 figures (with subfigures)

The Black-Scholes framework is crucial in pricing a vast number of financial instruments that permeate the complex dynamics of world markets. Associated with this framework, we consider a second-order differential operator $L(x, {\partial_x}) := v^2(x,t) (\partial_x^2 -\partial_x)$ that carries a variable volatility term $v(x,t)$ and which is dependent on the underlying log-price $x$ and a time parameter $t$ motivated by the celebrated Dupire local volatility model. In this context, we ask and answer the question of whether one can find a non-linear evolution equation derived from a zero-curvature condition for a time-dependent deformation of the operator $L$. The result is a variant of the Harry Dym equation for which we can then find a family of travelling wave solutions. This brings in extensive machinery from soliton theory and integrable systems. As a by-product, it opens up the way to the use of coherent structures in financial-market volatility studies., Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures (with subfigures)

We consider the inverse problem of determining the fragmentation rate from noisy measurements in the growth-fragmentation equation. We use Fourier transform theory on locally compact groups to treat this problem for general fragmentation probabilities. We develop a regularization method based on spectral filtering, which allows us to deal with the inverse problem in weighted ${L}^2$ spaces. %Our approach regularizes the signal generated by differential operators in the frequency domain. As a result, we obtain a regularization method with error of order $O(\varepsilon^{\frac{2m}{2m+1}})$, where $\varepsilon$ is the noise level and $m>0$ is the {\em a priori} regularity order of the fragmentation rate.

We extend the diffusion-map formalism to data sets that are induced by asymmetric kernels. Analytical convergence results of the resulting expansion are proved, and an algorithm is proposed to perform the dimensional reduction. In this work we study data sets in which its geometry structure is induced by an asymmetric kernel. We use a priori coordinate system to represent this geometry and, thus, be able to improve the computational complexity of reducing the dimensionality of data sets. A coordinate system connected to the tensor product of Fourier basis is used to represent the underlying geometric structure obtained by the diffusion-map, thus reducing the dimensionality of the data set and making use of the speedup provided by the two-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform algorithm (2-D FFT). We compare our results with those obtained by other eigenvalue expansions, and verify the efficiency of the algorithms with synthetic data, as well as with real data from applications including climate change studies.

We prove a general result on presentations of finitely-generated algebras and apply it to obtain nice presentations for some noncommutative algebras arising in the matrix bispectral problem. By "nice presentation" we mean a presentation that has as few as possible defining relations. This in turn, has potential applications in computer algebra implementations and examples. Our results can be divided into three parts. In the first two, we consider bispectral algebras with the eigenvalue in the physical equation to be scalar-valued for $2\times 2$ and $3\times 3$ matrix-valued eigenfunctions. In the third part, we assume the eigenvalue in the physical equation to be matrix-valued and draw an important connection with spin Calogero-Moser systems. In all cases, we show that these algebras are finitely presented. As a byproduct, we answer positively a conjecture of F.~A.~Gr\"{u}nbaum about these algebras.

The bispectral problem is motivated by an effort to understand and extend a remarkable phenomenon in Fourier analysis on the real line: the operator of time-and-band limiting is an integral operator admitting a second-order differential operator with a simple spectrum in its commutator. In this article, we discuss a noncommutative version of the bispectral problem, obtained by allowing all objects in the original formulation to be matrix-valued. Deep attention is given to bispectral algebras and their presentations as a tool to get information about bispectral triples.

We study algebraic properties of full rank 1 algebras in a general framework and derive a method to verify if one such matrix polynomial sub-algebra is bispectral. We give two examples illustrating the method. In the first one, we consider the eigenvalue to be scalar-valued, whereas, in the second one, we assume it to be matrix-valued. In the former example, we put forth a Pierce decomposition of that algebra.

We recover the Riemannian gradient of a given function defined on interior points of a Riemannian submanifold in the Euclidean space based on a sample of function evaluations at points in the submanifold. This approach is based on the estimates of the Laplace-Beltrami operator proposed in the diffusion-maps theory. The Riemannian gradient estimates do not involve differential terms. Analytical convergence results of the Riemannian gradient expansion are proved. We apply the Riemannian gradient estimate in a gradient-based algorithm providing a derivative-free optimization method. We test and validate several applications, including tomographic reconstruction from an unknown random angle distribution, and the sphere packing problem in dimensions 2 and 3., Comment: New version with applications in inverse problems

Background: By the beginning of December 2020, some vaccines against COVID-19 already presented efficacy and security, which qualify them to be used in mass vaccination campaigns. Thus, setting up strategies of vaccination became crucial to control the COVID19 pandemic. Methods: We use daily COVID-19 reports from Chicago and NYC from 01-Mar2020 to 28- Nov-2020 to estimate the parameters of an SEIR-like epidemiological model that accounts for different severity levels. To achieve data adherent predictions, we let the model parameters to be time-dependent. The model is used to forecast different vaccination scenarios, where the campaign starts at different dates, from 01-Oct-2020 to 01-Apr-2021. To generate realistic scenarios, disease control strategies are implemented whenever the number of predicted daily hospitalizations reaches a preset threshold. Results: The model reproduces the empirical data with remarkable accuracy. Delaying the vaccination severely affects the mortality, hospitalization, and recovery projections. In Chicago, the disease spread was under control, reducing the mortality increment as the start of the vaccination was postponed. In NYC, the number of cases was increasing, thus, the estimated model predicted a much larger impact, despite the implementation of contention measures. The earlier the vaccination campaign begins, the larger is its potential impact in reducing the COVID-19 cases, as well as in the hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, the rate at which cases, hospitalizations and deaths increase with the delay in the vaccination beginning strongly depends on the shape of the incidence of infection in each city., Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables

We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased (D). We define these compartments for n age and gender groups in m different spatial locations. So, the resulting model has, for each age group, gender, and place, all epidemiological classes. The mixing between them is accomplished by means of time-dependent infection rate matrices. The model is calibrated with the curve of daily new infections in New York City and its boroughs, including census data, and the proportions of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths for each age range. We end up with a model that matches the reported curves and predicts accurately infection information for different places and age classes.

We present a detailed analysis and implementation of a splitting strategy to identify simultaneously the local-volatility surface and the jump-size distribution from quoted European prices. The underlying model consists of a jump-diffusion driven asset with time and price dependent volatility. Our approach uses a forward Dupire-type partial-integro-differential equations for the option prices to produce a parameter-to-solution map. The ill-posed inverse problem for such map is then solved by means of a Tikhonov-type convex regularization. The proofs of convergence and stability of the algorithm are provided together with numerical examples that substantiate the robustness of the method both for synthetic and real data., Comment: 34 pages, 9 figures

This work presents a novel policy iteration algorithm to tackle nonzero-sum stochastic impulse games arising naturally in many applications. Despite the obvious impact of solving such problems, there are no suitable numerical methods available, to the best of our knowledge. Our method relies on the recently introduced characterization of the value functions and Nash equilibrium via a system of quasi-variational inequalities. While our algorithm is heuristic and we do not provide a convergence analysis, numerical tests show that it performs convincingly in a wide range of situations, including the only analytically solvable example available in the literature at the time of writing., Comment: Floats positions corrected. 23 pages, 8 figures

We tackle the calibration of the so-called Stochastic-Local Volatility (SLV) model. This is the class of financial models that combines the local and stochastic volatility features and has been subject of the attention by many researchers recently. More precisely, given a local volatility surface and a choice of stochastic volatility parameters, we calibrate the corresponding leverage function. Our approach makes use of regularization techniques from the inverse-problem theory, respecting the integrity of the data and thus avoiding data interpolation. The result is a stable and robust algorithm which is resilient to instabilities in the regions of low probability density of the spot price and of the instantaneous variance. We substantiate our claims with numerical experiments using simulated as well as real data.

Artificial releases of Wolbachia-infected Aedes mosquitoes have been under study in the past years for fighting vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and zika. Several strains of this bacterium cause cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) and can also affect their host's fecundity or lifespan, while highly reducing vector competence for the main arboviruses .We consider and answer the following questions: 1) what should be the initial condition (i.e. size of the initial mosquito population) to have invasion with one mosquito release source? We note that it is hard to have an invasion in such case. 2) How many release points does one need to have sufficiently high probability of invasion? 3) What happens if one accounts for uncertainty in the release protocol (e.g. unequal spacing among release points)? We build a framework based on existing reaction-diffusion models for the uncertainty quantification in this context, obtain both theoretical and numerical lower bounds for the probability of release success and give new quantitative results on the one dimensional case.

We introduce a local volatility model for the valuation of options on commodity futures by using European vanilla option prices. The corresponding calibration problem is addressed within an online framework, allowing the use of multiple price surfaces. Since uncertainty in the observation of the underlying future prices translates to uncertainty in data locations, we propose a model-based adjustment of such prices that improves reconstructions and smile adherence. In order to tackle the ill-posedness of the calibration problem we incorporate a priori information through a judiciously designed Tikhonov-type regularization. Extensive empirical tests with market as well as synthetic data are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology and algorithms.

This paper examines issues of data completion and location uncertainty, popular in many practical PDE-based inverse problems, in the context of option calibration via recovery of local volatility surfaces. While real data is usually more accessible for this application than for many others, the data is often given only at a restricted set of locations. We show that attempts to "complete missing data" by approximation or interpolation, proposed in the literature, may produce results that are inferior to treating the data as scarce. Furthermore, model uncertainties may arise which translate to uncertainty in data locations, and we show how a model-based adjustment of the asset price may prove advantageous in such situations. We further compare a carefully calibrated Tikhonov-type regularization approach against a similarly adapted EnKF method, in an attempt to fine-tune the data assimilation process. The EnKF method offers reassurance as a different method for assessing the solution in a problem where information about the true solution is difficult to come by. However, additional advantage in the latter approach turns out to be limited in our context.

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices., Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures

We address the classical issue of appropriate choice of the regularization and discretization level for the Tikhonov regularization of an inverse problem with imperfectly measured data. We focus on the fact that the proper choice of the discretization level in the domain together with the regularization parameter is a key feature in adequate regularization. We propose a discrepancy-based choice for these quantities by applying a relaxed version of Morozov's discrepancy principle. Indeed, we prove the existence of the discretization level and the regularization parameter satisfying such discrepancy. We also prove associated regularizing properties concerning the Tikhonov minimizers., Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures

In this paper we present a new method to compute the first-order approximation of the price of derivatives on futures in the context of multiscale stochastic volatility of Fouque \textit{et al.} (2011, CUP). It provides an alternative method to the singular perturbation technique presented in Hikspoors and Jaimungal (2008). The main features of our method are twofold: firstly, it does not rely on any additional hypothesis on the regularity of the payoff function, and secondly, it allows an effective and straightforward calibration procedure of the model to implied volatilities. These features were not achieved in previous works. Moreover, the central argument of our method could be applied to interest rate derivatives and compound derivatives. The only pre-requisite of our approach is the first-order approximation of the underlying derivative. Furthermore, the model proposed here is well-suited for commodities since it incorporates mean reversion of the spot price and multiscale stochastic volatility. Indeed, the model was validated by calibrating it to options on crude-oil futures, and it displays a very good fit of the implied volatility., Comment: 30 pages and 3 figures

We apply convex regularization techniques to the problem of calibrating the local volatility surface model of Dupire taking into account the practical requirement of discrete grids and noisy data. Such requirements are the consequence of bid and ask spreads, quantization of the quoted prices and lack of liquidity of option prices for strikes far way from the at the money level. We obtain convergence rates and results comparable to those obtained in the idealized continuous setting. Our results allow us to take into account separately the uncertainties due to the price noise and those due to discretization errors. Thus allowing better discretization levels both in the domain and in the image of the parameter to solution operator. We illustrate the results with simulated as well as real market data. We also validate the results by comparing the implied volatility prices of market data with the computed prices of the calibrated model. {10pt} \noindent {\bf Keywords:} Convex regularization, local volatility surfaces, regularization convergence rates, numerical methods for volatility calibration., Comment: 26 pages

We address the inverse problem of local volatility surface calibration from market given option prices. We integrate the ever-increasing flow of option price information into the well-accepted local volatility model of Dupire. This leads to considering both the local volatility surfaces and their corresponding prices as indexed by the observed underlying stock price as time goes by in appropriate function spaces. The resulting parameter to data map is defined in appropriate Bochner-Sobolev spaces. Under this framework, we prove key regularity properties. This enable us to build a calibration technique that combines online methods with convex Tikhonov regularization tools. Such procedure is used to solve the inverse problem of local volatility identification. As a result, we prove convergence rates with respect to noise and a corresponding discrepancy-based choice for the regularization parameter. We conclude by illustrating the theoretical results by means of numerical tests., Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures

We introduce and analyze several aspects of a new model for cell differentiation. It assumes that differentiation of progenitor cells is a continuous process. From the mathematical point of view, it is based on partial differential equations of transport type. Specifically, it consists of a structured population equation with a nonlinear feedback loop. This models the signaling process due to cytokines, which regulate the differentiation and proliferation process. We compare the continuous model to its discrete counterpart, a multi-compartmental model of a discrete collection of cell subpopulations recently proposed by Marciniak-Czochra et al. in 2009 to investigate the dynamics of the hematopoietic system. We obtain uniform bounds for the solutions, characterize steady state solutions, and analyze their linearized stability. We show how persistence or extinction might occur according to values of parameters that characterize the stem cells self-renewal. We also perform numerical simulations and discuss the qualitative behavior of the continuous model vis a vis the discrete one.

The aim of this work is twofold. First, we survey the techniques developed in (Perthame, Zubelli, 2007) and (Doumic, Perthame, Zubelli, 2008) to reconstruct the division (birth) rate from the cell volume distribution data in certain structured population models. Secondly, we implement such techniques on experimental cell volume distributions available in the literature so as to validate the theoretical and numerical results. As a proof of concept, we use the data reported in the classical work of Kubitschek [3] concerning Escherichia coli in vitro experiments measured by means of a Coulter transducer-multichannel analyzer system (Coulter Electronics, Inc., Hialeah, Fla, USA.) Despite the rather old measurement technology, the reconstructed division rates still display potentially useful biological features.

We study the global stability of a class of models for in-vivo virus dynamics, that take into account the CTL immune response and display antigenic variation. This class includes a number of models that have been extensively used to model HIV dynamics. We show that models in this class are globally asymptotically stable, under mild hypothesis, by using appropriate Lyapunov functions. We also characterise the stable equilibrium points for the entire biologically relevant parameter range. As a byproduct, we are able to determine what is the diversity of the persistent strains., Comment: 15 pages

We consider a size-structured model for cell division and address the question of determining the division (birth) rate from the measured stable size distribution of the population. We propose a new regularization technique based on a filtering approach. We prove convergence of the algorithm and validate the theoretical results by implementing numerical simulations, based on classical techniques. We compare the results for direct and inverse problems, for the filtering method and for the quasi-reversibility method proposed in [Perthame-Zubelli].

We study the Harry Dym hierarchy of nonlinear evolution equations from the bi-Hamiltonian view point. This is done by using the concept of an S-hierarchy. It allows us to define a matrix Harry Dym hierarchy of commuting Hamiltonian flows in two fields that projects onto the scalar Harry Dym hierarchy. We also show that the conserved densities of the matrix Harry Dym equation can be found by means of a Riccati-type equation., Comment: Revised version, 22 pages; a section on reciprocal transformations added. To appear in J. Math. Phys.

We consider a size-structured model for cell division and address the question of determining the division (birth) rate from the measured stable size distribution of the population. We formulate such question as an inverse problem for an integro-differential equation posed on the half line. We develop firstly a regular dependency theory for the solution in terms of the coefficients and, secondly, a novel regularization technique for tackling this inverse problem which takes into account the specific nature of the equation. Our results rely also on generalized relative entropy estimates and related Poincar\'e inequalities.

We describe how the Harry Dym equation fits into the the bi-Hamiltonian formalism for the Korteweg-de Vries equation and other soliton equations. This is achieved by means of a certain Poisson pencil constructed from two compatible Poisson structures. We obtain an analogue of the Kadomtsev-Petviashivili hierarchy whose reduction leads to the Harry Dym hierarchy. We call such system the HD-KP hierarchy. Then, we construct an infinite system of ordinary differential equations (in infinitely many variables) that is equivalent to the HD-KP hierarchy. Its role is analogous to the one played by the Central System for the Kadomtsev-Petviashivili hierarchy.

We present a fairly new and comprehensive approach to the study of stationary flows of the Korteweg-de Vries hierarchy. They are obtained by means of a double restriction process from a dynamical system in an infinite number of variables. This process naturally provides us with a Lax representation of the flows, which is used to find their bi-Hamiltonian formulation. Then we prove the separability of these flows making use of their bi-Hamiltonian structure, and we show that the variables of separation are supplied by the Poisson pair., Comment: Latex, 21 pages. To appear in Regular and Chaotic Dynamics

A new version of the Graeffe algorithm for finding all the roots of univariate complex polynomials is proposed. It is obtained from the classical algorithm by a process analogous to renormalization of dynamical systems. This iteration is called Renormalized Graeffe Iteration. It is globally convergent, with probability 1. All quantities involved in the computation are bounded, once the initial polynomial is given (with probability 1). This implies remarkable stability properties for the new algorithm, thus overcoming known limitations of the classical Graeffe algorithm. If we start with a degree-$d$ polynomial, each renormalized Graeffe iteration costs $O(d^2)$ arithmetic operations, with memory $O(d)$. A probabilistic global complexity bound is given. The case of univariate real polynomials is briefly discussed. A numerical implementation of the algorithm presented herein allowed us to solve random polynomials of degree up to 1000.

Graeffe iteration was the choice algorithm for solving univariate polynomials in the XIX-th and early XX-th century. In this paper, a new variation of Graeffe iteration is given, suitable to IEEE floating-point arithmetics of modern digital computers. We prove that under a certain generic assumption the proposed algorithm converges. We also estimate the error after N iterations and the running cost. The main ideas from which this algorithm is built are: classical Graeffe iteration and Newton Diagrams, changes of scale (renormalization), and replacement of a difference technique by a differentiation one. The algorithm was implemented successfully and a number of numerical experiments are displayed.