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Since the 2001 recession, average core inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This deflationary bias is a predictable consequence of a symmetric monetary policy strategy that fails to recognize the risk of encountering the zero-lower-bound. An asymmetric rule according to which the central bank responds less aggressively to above-target inflation corrects the bias, improves welfare, and reduces the risk of deflationary spirals - a pathological situation in which inflation keeps falling indefinitely. This approach does not entail any history dependence or commitment to overshoot the inflation target and can be implemented with an asymmetric target range. A counterfactual simulation shows that a modest level of asymmetry would have removed the deflationary bias observed in the United States.

The paper analyses the evolvement and effects of central bank crisis management since the mid 1980s based on a Hayek-Mises-Wicksell overinvestment framework. It is shown that, given that the traditional transmission mechanism between monetary policy and consumer price inflation has collapsed, asymmetric monetary policy crisis management implies a convergence of interest rates towards zero and a gradual expansion of central bank balance sheets. From a Hayek-Mises-Wicksell perspective asymmetric central bank crisis management has contributed to financial market bubbles, decreasing marginal efficiency of investment, increasing income inequality and declining growth dynamics. The economic policy implication is a slow but decisive exit from ultra-expansionary monetary policies.

The paper analyses adverse investment, growth and distributional effects of ultra-loose monetary policies based on the monetary overinvestment theories of Hayek and Mises. We argue that ultra-loose monetary policies create incentives to substitute real investment by financial investment. When interest rates are expected to fall in the long term, the marginal and average efficiency of investments fall along, dampening GDP growth. We further show that the prolonged period of very low interest rates tends to distribute income towards higher income classes. This helps explain why consumer price inflation in most advanced economies does not pick up despite unprecedented monetary expansions.

This paper provides a dynamic analysis of the responsiveness of asset markets to monetary policy path revisions. In an era of increased transparency and gradualism in policy making, one might expect an increased response to path revisions in asset markets as the policy actions become more predictable over longer horizons. Using federal funds futures contracts to extract near-term path revisions, we find that the responsiveness of Treasury securities to path revisions is significantly asymmetric, increasing during cycles of tightenings and declining during easings. This is consistent with the earlier literature that documents asymmetric effects of monetary policy on output.

The aim of the paper is to analyze the sources of current global economic crisis. The following thesis was presented in this article. The main cause of the financial crises in the United States, which have resulted in global recession in the real economy, should be attributed to very expansive monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The expansionary monetary policy in the reality of ineffectiveness of government in building effective rules of financial market resulted in growing some speculative bubbles in the market of financial assets and real estate market. Bursting of these bubbles has resulted in global recession. Celem opracowania jest analiza przyczyn globalnego kryzysu gospodarczego, który rozwinął się na przełomie 2008 i 2009 r. W opracowaniu postawiono następującą hipotezę badawczą: kluczowym czynnikiem sprawczym kryzysu finansowego w Stanach Zjednoczonych, który później doprowadził do globalnego spowolnienia w sferze realnej w wymiarze międzynarodowym, była zbyt ekspansywna polityka monetarna Rezerwy Federalnej; ekspansja monetarna w warunkach nieefektywności państwa w zakresie kreowania porządku instytucjonalnego rynków finansowych skutkowała narastaniem bąbli spekulacyjnych na rynkach aktywów, których pęknięcie stało się przyczyną globalnej recesji.

This paper provides a dynamic analysis of the responsiveness of asset markets to monetary policy path revisions. In an era of increased transparency and gradualism in policy making, one might expect an increased response to path revisions in asset markets as the policy actions become more predictable over longer horizons. Using federal funds futures contracts to extract near-term path revisions, we find that the responsiveness of Treasury securities to path revisions is significantly asymmetric, increasing during cycles of tightenings and declining during easings. This is consistent with the earlier literature that documents asymmetric effects of monetary policy on output.