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Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) were evaluated on their ability to simulate tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) over its annual cycle. Specifically, we examined these models' ability to simulate the south–north migration of the mean TC genesis location. The results revealed that both types of models realistically captured TC numbers and the south–north migration of TC genesis locations associated with the meridional migration of the WNP subtropical high ridge in response to the annual cycle. However, TC numbers decreased less rapidly in the AGCMs than in both the CGCMs and observed data during the monsoon retreat period (after September). This bias was probably attributed to a low-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over the Philippine Sea in response to La Niña–like sea surface temperature (SST) differences between the AGCMs and the CGCMs. Because of these differences, the TC genesis frequency in the AGCMs over the Philippine Sea was overestimated. The cyclonic anomaly occurred when the northeasterly trade wind arose and was maintained through wind–evaporation–SST feedback. In future climate (2021–50), the main changes occurred during the monsoon retreat period. A more rapid decrease in TC numbers shown in AGCMs was likely attributed to the decrease (increase) of low-level vorticity (vertical wind shear) modulated by enhanced WNP subtropical high and subsidence anomalies. Conversely, a cyclonic circulation and ascending anomalies projected by CGCMs were identified off-equator, which favored TC genesis location shifting northward. Significance Statement: Model performance and future changes in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific are investigated. We found that high-resolution uncoupled and coupled models realistically captured the TC numbers and meridional migration of TC genesis locations associated with the meridional migration of subtropical high ridge. However, TC numbers decreased more gradually in the uncoupled models than in the coupled models after September. This lower skill may stem from differences between the uncoupled and coupled models in simulating a cyclonic anomaly over the Philippine Sea in response to the La Niña–like sea surface temperature difference. In future climate (2021–50), TC numbers are significantly projected to decrease more rapidly during the monsoon retreat period in uncoupled models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater runoff has increased considerably since the 1990s, leading to implications for the ice sheet mass balance and ecosystem dynamics in ice-free areas. Extreme weather events will likely continue to occur in the coming decades. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of extreme melting events is of interest. This study aims to analyze the evolution of extreme melting events across the GrIS and determine the climatic factors that drive them. Specifically, we have analyzed extreme melting events (90th percentile) across the GrIS from 1950 to 2022 and examined their links to the surface energy balance (SEB) and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Extreme melting days account for approximately 35%–40% of the total accumulated melting per season. We found that extreme melting frequency, intensity, and contribution to the total accumulated June–August (summer) melting show a statistically significant upward trend at a 95% confidence level. The largest trends are detected across the northern GrIS. The trends are independent of the extreme melting percentile rank (90th, 97th, or 99th) analyzed and are consistent with average melting trends that exhibit an increase in similar magnitude and spatial configuration. Radiation plays a dominant role in controlling the SEB during extreme melting days. The increase in extreme melting frequency and intensity is driven by the increase in anticyclonic weather types during summer and more energy available for melting. Our results help to enhance the understanding of extreme events in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climatological western North Pacific summer monsoon onset, a so-called convection jump, occurs around the 41st pentad, corresponding to an abrupt northeastward extension of strong convection. This study investigates the process of convection jump from a local perspective. Composite analyses are performed based on the onset dates that are identified in individual years. The results show that the convective inhibition (CIN) decreases dramatically around the onset dates, while the convective available potential energy (CAPE) reaches its maximum long before the onset, suggesting that the CIN, rather than CAPE, plays a dominant role in triggering convection. Further analysis indicates that the reduction of CIN is induced by the increased low-level relative humidity, which is the result of enhanced water vapor convergence. The moisture transportation is primarily contributed by the wind transfer from easterlies to southeasterlies or southerlies along the southern boundary of the convection jump region, in accordance with the monsoon trough establishment. The present observational results may be used to evaluate climate models in simulating the stepwise evolution of summer monsoon. Significance Statement: The convection jump refers to rapid convection extension to the northeastern part of the Philippines Sea in late July and corresponds to the deepening of the monsoon trough and northward shift of the western North Pacific subtropical high. Therefore, the convection jump has important impacts on the East Asian summer monsoon. The crucial role of transient atmospheric adjustment in triggering the convection jump has been shown in previous studies. However, the reason for the temporal preference of convection jump remains unknown. This study further specifies the process of atmospheric adjustments around the convection jump from a local perspective and reveals that the transition from the easterlies to southeasterlies or southerlies decreases convective inhibition and thus favors the convection jump. The present results can be used to diagnose the ability of climate models to simulate the stepwise evolution of Asian–Pacific summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed precipitation changes in the Southeast United States (SEUS) are spatially heterogeneous. Most of the inland SEUS and eastern Gulf Coast become drier, and the East Coast north of Charleston, South Carolina, and southern Florida become wetter from the old 30-yr period of 1961–90 to the recent period of 1991–2020. The observed climate change is examined from the perspective of daily weather types (WTs). A k-means clustering analysis has been conducted using daily 850-hPa circulation for 1948–2021. The obtained 10 WTs peak in different seasons, respectively. The frequencies and precipitation intensity of the WTs have been analyzed. A winter WT characterized by a western Appalachian trough (WAT) and a summer WT featuring North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) have a rising trend of annual frequency from 1948 to 2021. An Appalachian high in the autumn has a decreasing frequency but becomes drier and stronger. Some precipitation intensity change and small location shift have also been observed. The drying up on the eastern Gulf Coast and the inland area of the SEUS is mainly caused by the weakened southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) on the western flank of the NASH that reduces rain in the spring, the less frequent but stronger and drier Appalachian high in the summer and autumn, and the weaker and more western located Plains trough (PT) in the winter, spring, and autumn. The precipitation increase in the East Coast and southern Florida is majorly due to more frequent, stronger, and rainier troughs along the western Appalachian as well as the East Coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been widely used for various applications, especially for solving mesoscale atmospheric dynamics. Its high-order numerical schemes and nesting capability enable high spatial resolution. However, a growing number of applications are demanding more realistic simulations through the incorporation of coupling with new model compartments and an increase in the complexity of the processes considered in the model. (e.g., ocean, surface gravity wave, land-surface, chemistry...). The present paper details the development and the functionalities of the coupling interface we implemented in WRF. It uses the Ocean-Atmosphere-Sea-Ice-Soil – Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT) coupler, which has the advantage of being non-intrusive, efficient, and very flexible to use. OASIS3-MCT has already been implemented in many climate and regional models. This coupling interface is designed with the following baselines: (1) it is structured with a 2-level design through 2 modules: a general coupling module, and a coupler-specific module, allowing to easily add other couplers if required, (2) variables exchange, coupling frequency, and any potential time and grid transformations are controlled through an external text file, offering great flexibility, (3) the concepts of "external domains" and "coupling mask" are introduced to facilitate the exchange of fields to/from multiple sources (different models, fields from different models/grids/zooms...). Finally, two examples of applications of ocean-atmosphere coupling are proposed. The first is related to the impact of ocean surface current feedback to the atmospheric boundary layer, and the second concerns the coupling of surface gravity waves with the atmospheric surface layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake outburst events have been mainly focused on small glacial lakes in the Himalaya, while the historical events from inland large lakes are few and have received less attention. Inland large lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are expanding rapidly, with recent signs of increasing outburst risk, highlighting the need to elucidate the processes, causes and mechanisms to mitigate future impacts. Here, a long-term satellite lake mapping shows that the number and surface area of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 50 years peaked in 2023, accompanied by two notable outburst events: Zonag Lake (~150 km2 in 2023) on 15 September 2011 and Selin Co (~2,465 km2 in 2023, the largest lake in Tibet) on 23 September 2023. The cascading outburst of Zonag Lake caused its area to shrink by ~124 km2 (-45 %), while the downstream Yanhu Lake expanded by ~163 km2 (+347 %). The Selin Co outburst resulted in a water volume loss of ~0.3 Gt, the downstream Bange Co experienced a water level rise of ~2.3 m and an area expansion of ~18 %. Despite its large water storage capacity, Selin Co experienced less water loss due to the flat terrain at the breach and the slow flow (~1 m/s at the damaged road), with an average discharge of ~170 m3/s. Even with the low discharge, the Selin Co flood breached the lowland road within ~12 hours. In contrast, the large breach and steep terrain at Zonag Lake facilitated a rapid discharge of a sustained volume of water, with an average discharge of ~2,191 m3/s. Selin Co resulted in only a short period of drainage reorganization, in contrast to the permanent reorganization caused by Zonag Lake. The underlying mechanisms of the increased precipitation as the main trigger for the two outburst events prior to the occurrence are different. For Zonag Lake, thermodynamic effects, i.e. changes in the atmospheric moisture, are the most important, while for Selin Co, dynamical effects, i.e. the vertical motion induced by the changes in atmospheric circulation, dominate the precipitation patterns. Large lake outbursts in the Inner Tibetan Plateau are expected to increase in the near future due to the warmer and wetter climate, and urgent policy planning is needed to mitigate the potential future lake-induced flood damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River basin (YRB) experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season in June–July 2020. This unique long-lasting extreme event and its origin have attracted considerable attention. Previous studies have suggested that the Indian Ocean (IO) SST forcing and soil moisture anomaly over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) were responsible for this unexpected event. However, the relative contributions of IO SST and ICP soil moisture to the 2020 mei-yu rainfall event, especially their linkage with atmospheric circulation changes, remain unclear. By using observations and numerical simulations, this study examines the synergistic impacts of IO SST and ICP soil moisture on the extreme mei-yu in 2020. Results show that the prolonged dry soil moisture led to a warmer surface over the ICP in May under strong IO SST backgrounds. The intensification of the warm condition further magnified the land thermal effects, which in turn facilitated the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in June–July. The intensified WNPSH amplified the water vapor convergence and ascending motion over the YRB, thereby contributing to the 2020 mei-yu. In contrast, the land thermal anomalies diminish during normal IO SST backgrounds due to the limited persistence of soil moisture. The roles of IO SST and ICP soil moisture are verified and quantified using the Community Earth System Model. Their synergistic impacts yield a notable 32% increase in YRB precipitation. Our findings provide evidence for the combined influences of IO SST forcing and ICP soil moisture variability on the occurrence of the 2020 super mei-yu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold surges (CSs) often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development. We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs (PCSs) have rebounded since the 1990s, but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs (SCSs) and extreme CSs (ECSs) changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000. The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends. However, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China. Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China. In addition, the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term (2071–2100), a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific, differences in sea level pressure (SLP) between high- and mid-latitude regions, and a weaker East Asian trough. In terms of ECSs, the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia (60°–90°E) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large part of the variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and thus uncertainty in its estimates on interannual time scales comes from atmospheric synoptic eddies and mesoscale processes. In this study, a suite of experiments with a 1/12° regional configuration of the MITgcm is performed where low-pass filtering is applied to surface wind forcing to investigate the impact of subsynoptic (<2 days) and synoptic (2–10 days) atmospheric processes on the ocean circulation. Changes in the wind magnitude and hence the wind energy input in the region have a significant effect on the strength of the overturning; once this is accounted for, the magnitude of the overturning in all sensitivity experiments is very similar to that of the control run. Synoptic and subsynoptic variability in atmospheric winds reduce the surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea, resulting in anomalous advection of warm and salty waters into the Irminger Sea and lower upper-ocean densities in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Other effects of high-frequency variability in surface winds on the AMOC are associated with changes in Ekman convergence in the midlatitudes. Synoptic and subsynoptic winds also impact the strength of the boundary currents and density structure in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the Labrador Sea, the overturning strength is more sensitive to the changes in density structure, whereas in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic, the role of density is comparable to that of the strength of the East Greenland Current. Significance Statement: A key issue in understanding how well the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is simulated in climate models is determining the impact of synoptic (2–10 days) and subsynoptic (shorter) wind variability on ocean circulation. We find that the greatest impact of wind changes on the strength of the overturning is through changes in energy input from winds to the ocean. Variations in winds have a more modest impact via changes in heat loss over the Labrador Sea, alongside changes in wind-driven surface currents. This study highlights the importance of accurately representing the density in the Labrador Sea, and both the strength and density structure of the East Greenland Current, for the correct representation of overturning circulation in climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled ocean and prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) experiments are performed to investigate the drivers of Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude winter circulation and blocking changes in warmer climates. In coupled experiments, a historical simulation is compared to a simulation following an end of the twenty-first-century shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP5-8.5) emission scenario. The SSP5-8.5 simulation yields poleward-shifted jets and an enhanced stationary wave pattern compared to the historical simulation. In terms of blocking, a reduction is found across North America and over the Pacific Ocean with the suggestion of more blocking over parts of Eurasia. Separately, prescribed SST experiments are performed decomposing the SSP5-8.5 SST response into a uniform warming component plus a spatially dependent change in SST pattern. SSP5-8.5 changes in circulation are primarily driven by a uniform warming of SST. Uniform warming is also found to account for most of the SSP5-8.5 blocking reduction over North America and the Pacific Ocean, but not over Eurasia. El Niño–like changes to the SST pattern also yield less blocking over the Pacific and North America. However, adding the responses of uniform and pattern experiments yields a nonlinear overreduction of blocking compared to the SSP5-8.5 experiment. Regional analyses of block energetics suggest that much of the reductions in blocking in warming simulations are driven by decreased baroclinic conversion in some regions and enhanced dissipation from diabatic sources in others. Significance Statement: Atmospheric blocks are persistent anticyclones that can cause severe weather such as heat waves and cold spells. Climate models generally project that on a warmer Earth, blocking frequency is poised to decrease in the Northern Hemisphere by the end of the twenty-first century. The cause, however, remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the response of mean atmospheric circulation and atmospheric blocking when separately considering the warming of sea surface temperatures (SST) and changing the SST pattern. We find that most of the reduction in blocking can be explained by a uniform warming of SST. Energetics analyses suggest that this reduction is driven by blocks' inhibited extraction of mean flow potential energy in some regions and by enhanced diabatic dissipation in others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) augmented with cross-country atmospheric circulation and uncovers that changes in carbon monoxide (CO) levels are driven by atmospheric flows way more than by any of the traditional SDA components. Applied to a five-region model, our results show, among others, that South Korea has certainly been able to reduce the CO emissions in its own territory by 0.8Tg over 1990–2014 but up to 10.6Tg of CO flowing to its borders came from its upwind neighbor China. That amount was primarily driven by activities satisfying the growth of China's domestic demand, although changes in foreign demand and in the technology effect were not negligible. By quantifying the role of upwind countries in air pollution changes, our methodology allows us to identify more comprehensive global emission abatement policies than the consumer- or producer-focused approaches currently used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, India has witnessed an increase in the intensity, frequency, and spread of extreme weather events. The widespread increase in extreme precipitation over the Western Coast of India is a matter of great concern. The factors contributing to such devastating extreme precipitation remain unclear due to the variability present in meteorological and oceanic variables and associated large‐scale circulations. Using reanalysis and observed datasets, we attempted to identify a combination of dynamic, thermodynamic, and cloud microphysics processes contributing to the anomalous precipitation from August 1 to 10, 2019 against its climatology. Our key findings highlight the crucial role of warm sea surface temperatures (anomaly >1.4°C), outgoing longwave radiation (anomaly <−50 W·m−2), and atmospheric temperature (anomaly over the ocean is >1.6°C) in enhancing the moisture‐holding capacity of the atmosphere by almost 10%. This elevated moisture, propelled by intensified low‐level winds (anomalies exceeding 4 m·s−1), leads to a shift from ocean to land. Notably, we observe that vertical updrafts (anomalies >−0.4 m·s−1) contribute to increased atmospheric instability and moisture convergence. The presence of an ample amount of cloud hydrometeors, with anomalies surpassing 2.5 × 10−4 kg·kg−1, establishes conditions conducive to sustained intense precipitation. Our findings deepen our understanding of the complex relationships between ocean and atmospheric dynamics, and wind patterns, and emphasize their pivotal influence on regional weather patterns and land surface hydrology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 30 years, the Arctic Dipole Anomaly (DA) has repeatedly led to record lows in summer sea ice extent, with cloud radiative effects (CRE) playing a crucial regulatory role. Here, we reveal the CRE variations between positive and negative DA events and elucidate the slowing impacts of CRE on sea ice thickness (SIT) changes. The DA triggers robust meridional winds and transpolar drift, markedly reducing SIT in the Beaufort Sea (BeS), Chukchi Sea (CS), and East Siberian Sea (ESS), while increasing it in the Greenland Sea (GS). CRE significantly slow SIT changes, contributing +14.4, +4.4, +16.4, and −26.7 cm to changes from June to August, against total changes of −55.9, −29.4, −39.8, and +42.8 cm in September over BeS, CS, ESS, and GS, respectively. This study underscores the key impacts of CRE on sea ice variation, emphasizing their significance in the polar climate system. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic Dipole Anomaly is one of the principal atmospheric circulation patterns in the Arctic region, significantly influencing the spatial distribution of sea ice through induced changes in polar wind directions. These wind changes also affect the fraction of Arctic clouds and, by modifying cloud‐surface radiative forcing, alter the surface energy balance. Utilizing 20 years of multi‐source observation data along with reanalysis meteorology, we observed that during the summer, a positive Arctic Dipole Anomaly significantly decreases the thickness of sea ice in the Pacific sector and increases it in the Atlantic sector. During this period, variations in cloud‐surface radiative forcing substantially slow the extent of sea ice thickness reduction/increase. In other words, without considering the impact of cloud radiative forcing, the changes in sea ice thickness would be more severe. Key Points: There is a significant reduction in both the sea ice concentration and thickness across the Pacific sector of the Arctic with Arctic Dipole Anomaly phases in summerThe Arctic Dipole Anomaly induces alterations in the wind and temperature fields, which subsequently influence the spatial distribution of Arctic cloudsVariations in clouds and surface albedo alter the surface energy balance and slow the sea ice changes caused by the Dipole Anomaly [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An obvious long‐term drying trend in recent early springs (February–March–April) is observed over southeastern China (SEC). Here, we attribute this drying to the weakened subtropical westerlies and deflected by the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Climatologically, the low‐level southwesterlies at the southeastern margin of the TP, a branch of the upstream subtropical westerly jet deflected by the TP terrain, bring water vapor to SEC and the southerlies move upward over SEC mainly through isentropic gliding mechanism, inducing persistent precipitation in early spring. However, the subtropical westerlies weakened significantly in recent decades due potentially to the decreased Eurasian snow cover. Consequently, an easterly trend appears along the southern margin of the TP with anomalous northeasterlies over SEC. These northeasterlies suppress both moisture supply and upward motions over SEC, and reduce regional early spring precipitation. Our results highlight the interaction between the TP terrain and the weakened subtropical westerlies that leads to the drying SEC. Plain Language Summary: Spring precipitation in southeastern China (SEC) is a major rainband during the pre‐flood season in East Asia, which is significant for agricultural production and social economy. However, in the recent few decades, a robust long‐term drying trend has occurred over SEC in early spring. In this study, we propose a new mechanism for the decreased SEC precipitation and highlight the important influence of the weakened subtropical westerlies and their interaction with the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Deflected by the TP large terrain, the upstream weakened subtropical westerlies induce weakened westerlies and southwesterlies along the southern and southeastern margins of the TP, respectively. As a result, the weakened southwesterlies at the southeastern TP not only reduce the moisture transport downstream, but also suppress the ascending motions over SEC through the isentropic gliding mechanism. Both the water vapor and atmospheric circulation conditions finally induce the drying SEC in recent early springs. Key Points: An early spring drying trend has occurred in southeastern China (SEC), much of this can be attributed to the weakened subtropical westerliesDeflected by the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the weakened subtropical westerlies decelerate downstream westerlies along the TP's southern marginThe decelerated westerlies at the southeastern TP suppress moisture supply and rising motions over SEC, both processes cause the drying SEC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial factor influencing the mass balance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), a climatological low‐pressure region situated off the West Antarctic coast. However, albeit the deepening of the ASL since the 1950s has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing, the multi‐decadal variability of the ASL remains poorly understood, because of a lack of long observations. Here, we apply a newly developed data assimilation method to reconstruct the ASL over 1870–2000. We study the forced and internal variability of the ASL using our new reconstruction in concert with existing large ensembles of climate model simulations. Our findings robustly demonstrate that an atmospheric teleconnection originating from the tropical Indo‐Pacific is the main driver of ASL variability at the multi‐decadal time scale, with resemblance to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Since the mid‐20th century, anthropogenic forcing has emerged as a dominant contributor to the strengthening of the ASL. Plain Language Summary: Changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance (i.e., the difference between the gain and loss of ice mass) are partly influenced by large‐scale winds, and in particular, a climatological low‐pressure feature located off the West Antarctic coast called the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). Yet, although the long‐term strengthening of the ASL since the mid‐20th century has been demonstrated to be related to anthropogenic forcing, our understanding of the variability of the ASL on time‐scales of decades is poorly known. In this paper, we therefore investigate the origins of this variability since 1870, and quantify the relative contributions of human‐caused climate changes and natural variability of the climate system. For this purpose, we use several ensembles of model simulations as well as new climate reconstructions that combine paleoclimate records with model simulations using a statistical method. Our results indicate that the multi‐decadal variability of the ASL is strongly driven by tropical variability in the Indo‐Pacific through atmospheric connections between this region and the Amundsen Sea. Our reconstruction, when compared with a large ensemble of model simulations, indicates that since 1950, human‐induced climate forcing has become a dominant driver of long‐term ASL variability, contributing equally to tropical variability. Key Points: The large‐scale atmospheric circulation in West Antarctica exhibits a strong multi‐decadal variability superimposed by a 20th‐century trendThe multi‐decadal variability of this large‐scale atmospheric circulation is strongly governed by the Indo‐Pacific tropical variabilitySince 1950, anthropogenic forcing has emerged as a key driver of the long‐term change of this atmospheric circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After days of intense solar activity, active region AR3664 launched seven CMEs toward Earth producing an extreme G5 geomagnetic storm commencing at 17:05 UT on 10 May 2024. The storm impacted power grids, disrupted precision navigational systems used by farming equipment, and generated aurora seen around the globe. The storm produced remarkable effects on composition, temperature, and dynamics in the Earth's thermosphere that were observed by NASA's Global‐scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission and are reported here for the first time. We use synoptic disk images of ΣO/N2 and neutral temperature (at ∼160 km) measured by GOLD to directly link dynamics resulting from the storm with dramatic changes in thermospheric composition and temperature. We observe a heretofore unseen spatial morphology simultaneously in ΣO/N2, neutral temperature, and total electron content. Equator‐to‐pole temperature differences reach 400 K with high latitude peak neutral temperatures near 160 km exceeding 1400 K. Plain Language Summary: On Saturday 10 May 2024, the sun launched a wave of energized plasma toward the Earth. A large disturbance in the Earth's magnetic field associated with the solar wind resulted in an extreme geomagnetic storm. The storm impacted power grids, disrupted navigational systems used by farming equipment, and produced aurora seen around the globe. The storm produced remarkable effects in the Earth's upper atmosphere that were observed by NASA's Global‐scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission. In this letter, we use images measured by GOLD to directly link atmospheric dynamics resulting from the May 10–12 superstorm with dramatic changes in composition, temperature, and global circulation in the Earth's upper atmosphere. We observe previously unseen structure in the upper atmosphere associated with equator‐to‐pole temperature differences exceeding 400 K. Peak neutral temperatures near 160 km exceed 1400 K at high latitudes. Key Points: GOLD disk images of ΣO/N2 and neutral temperature link storm time dynamics with changes in thermospheric composition and temperatureWe observe a previously unseen spatial morphology in ΣO/N2, neutral temperature, and total electron contentPeak equator‐to‐pole temperature differences exceed 400 K but relax to pre‐storm conditions well before ΣO/N2 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the position and intensity changes of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over Asia (50°E−135°E) relative to the preindustrial period annually and seasonally during the Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and mid‐Holocene (MH) using available models from phases 3 and 4 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. The multi‐model mean shows that the June–July–August ITCZ variations generally dominate the annual changes. The Asian ITCZ shifts northward over western Asia and southward over the eastern side in both the LIG and MH, and the opposite occurs in the LGM. Its intensity varies with longitude similarly for the LIG and MH and generally weakens in the LGM. Precipitation changes associated directly with ITCZ indices are primarily caused by the dynamic term in the LIG and MH, while both dynamic and thermodynamic terms play roles in the LGM, with major contributions from the convergence components. Plain Language Summary: As an intense rain belt, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has an important influence on the regional climate, particularly over Asia. However, its future and past behaviors remain unclear. Based on multi‐model experiments, we investigate Asian ITCZ changes in location and intensity during the past three typical periods: the interglacial periods of the Last Interglacial and the mid‐Holocene and the glacial period of the Last Glacial Maximum. The Asian ITCZ overall strengthens and regionally moves northward over the western part and southward over the eastern part during the two interglacial periods relative to its preindustrial state, which are generally opposite to the position and intensity changes in the glacial period. These ITCZ changes are directly caused by uneven precipitation changes, which are dominated by atmospheric circulation changes during interglacial periods and additionally contributed from water vapor content changes during glacial periods, primarily through the vertical motion of air. Key Points: Asian Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts northward over western Asia and southward over the eastern side in Last Interglacial (LIG) and mid‐Holocene (MH), and the opposite occurs in Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)Asian ITCZ intensity varies with longitude similarly for LIG and MH, while it weakens during LGMDynamic term dominates the ITCZ‐related precipitation changes in LIG and MH, while both dynamic and thermodynamic terms play roles in LGM [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At mid‐latitudes, a narrow band of near‐surface wind convergence (NSWC) overlies the western boundary currents in long‐term climatology as a response to steep sea surface temperature gradients. The underlying dynamics shaping mean convergence in the mid‐latitude region have been investigated in detail. In polar regions, surface temperature gradients are intense along the sea ice edges. However, literature concerning NSWC near sea ice edges is limited. This study investigates time‐mean NSWC along sea ice edges and its shaping processes, focusing on the Greenland Sea, based on atmospheric reanalysis. In cold‐season climatology, positive NSWC overlies the sea ice edge, resulting in a localized upward motion reaching the free atmosphere. The mean NSWC was insensitive to sea ice thickness and surface roughness in the regional model. This study suggests that, in addition to local atmospheric boundary processes, extreme NSWC events play a vital role in shaping the mean distribution. Although these features are similar to those along the Gulf Stream, atmospheric fronts appear to play a relatively minor role in the Greenland Sea. Instead, the frequent cyclone generation near the sea ice edge and the anticyclonic circulation over Greenland in conjunction with the transient synoptic circulation seem essential. In the warm season, positive NSWC was virtually missing in the Greenland Sea, unlike in the Gulf Stream region, reflecting the shallow virtual temperature response to the surface thermal forcing. This study contributes to understanding the mechanisms by which sea ice variability affects large‐scale atmospheric circulation in remote regions. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies have argued that sea ice variability in Arctic regions could affect large‐scale atmospheric circulation in remote regions. However, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. A deeper understanding of the impact of sea ice on the local atmosphere will aid in revealing these mechanisms. The present study investigates small‐scale (less than 1,000 km) atmospheric features close to sea‐ice edges, where surface temperature gradients are intense and can exert distinct impacts on the atmosphere. In the winter, the sea‐ice edge distinctly modulates the near‐surface wind, leading to an narrow band of intense upward wind. This upward wind reaches the middle of the atmosphere, suggesting that these features could relate to the effect of sea ice variability on large‐scale atmospheric circulation in remote regions. The physical processes modulating the mean near‐surface winds near the sea‐ice edge are found to be similar to those along the warm currents at the western edge of the basins (such as the Gulf Stream). However, atmospheric fronts appear to play a less important role. Instead, the frequent cyclone generation near the sea‐ice edge and the combination of the clockwise near‐surface wind around Greenland and near‐surface wind blowing from the ocean to sea‐ice regions appear essential. Key Points: A distinct band of mean near‐surface wind convergence overlies the sea ice edge in the Greenland Sea during winterThe mean near‐surface wind convergence along the sea ice edge is insensitive to ice thickness and surface roughness in a numerical modelThe anticyclonic circulation over Greenland and transient synoptic circulation are essential for shaping the time‐mean wind convergence [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Progress in understanding the impact of mesoscale variability, including gravity waves (GWs), on atmospheric circulation is often limited by the availability of global fine-resolution observations and simulated data. This study presents momentum fluxes due to atmospheric GWs extracted from four months of an experimental "nature run", integrated at a 1 km resolution (XNR1K) using the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) model. Helmholtz decomposition is used to compute zonal and meridional flux of vertical momentum from ~1.5 petabytes of data; quantities often emulated by climate model parameterization of GWs. The fluxes are validated using ERA5 reanalysis, both during the first week after initialization and over the boreal winter period from November 2018 to February 2019. The agreement between reanalysis and IFS demonstrates its capability to generate reliable flux distributions and capture mesoscale dynamic variability in the atmosphere. The dataset could be valuable in advancing our understanding of GW-planetary wave interactions, GW evolution around atmospheric extremes, and as high-quality training data for machine learning (ML) simulation of GWs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detecting and interpreting long-term changes in typhoon translation speed in observations remains challenging, contrasting with increased confidence in the poleward migration of typhoons. Here, I show a significant relationship between the basin-wide translation speed and the latitudinal position of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific over 1980–2023. First, because tropical cyclones move faster at higher latitudes, the significant poleward migration (80 km/decade) increases the yearly basin-wide translation speed by 5% over the period. This effect reduces the detectability of a slowing trend. Second, the basin-wide translation speed solely contributed by regional translation speed has slowed by 18%, mostly in the late stage of the cyclone lifecycle. The translation speed slowdown and the poleward migration are likely caused by the same climate drivers through the interconnected large-scale atmospheric circulation between the tropics and subtropics. My findings suggest exacerbated tropical cyclone-related risk in the subtropical regions in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the impact of a disintegrated Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on the global climate through steady-state simulations with the MPI-ESM (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model). This advances our understanding of the intricate feedbacks between the GrIS and the full climate system. Sensitivity experiments enable the quantification of the individual contributions of altered Greenland surface elevation and properties (e.g., land cover) to the atmospheric and oceanic climate response. Removing the GrIS results in reduced mechanical atmospheric blocking, warmer air temperatures over Greenland and thereby changes in the atmospheric circulation. The latter alters the wind stress on the ocean, which controls the ocean-mass transport through the Arctic Gateways. Without the GrIS, the upper Nordic Seas are fresher, attenuating deep-water formation. In the Labrador Sea, deep-water formation is weaker despite a higher upper-ocean salinity, as the inflow of dense overflow from the Denmark Strait is reduced. Our sensitivity experiments show that the atmospheric response is primarily driven by the lower surface elevation, whereas altered Greenland surface properties mostly amplify but also counteract few of the changes. The lower Greenland elevation dominates the ocean response through wind-stress changes. Only in the Labrador Sea, altered Greenland surface properties dominate the ocean response, as this region stores excessive heat from the Greenland warming. The main drivers vary vertically: The elevation effect controls upper-ocean densities, while surface properties are important for the intermediate and deep ocean. Despite the confinement of most responses to the Arctic, a disintegrated GrIS also influences remote climates. The altered climate in response to a GrIS disintegration also constrains a potential ice-sheet regrowth to high-bedrock eastern Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash droughts (FDs) are distinguished by a rapid development associated with strong precipitation deficits and/or increases in atmospheric evaporative demand in the short‐term, but little is known about the atmospheric conditions underlying these events. In this study, we analyse for the first time the atmospheric dynamics involved in the development of FDs in Spain over the period 1961–2018. FDs are related to large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the region, in particular with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is the main atmospheric driver of FDs in winter and autumn, and it is essential in explaining FD development in spring. We also found that FDs are typically linked to strong positive anomalies in 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure over the region during the weeks prior to the onset. At the synoptic scale, the most common weather types (WTs) recorded during the development of FDs are Anticyclonic Western (ANT_W_AD), East (E_AD) and Northeast (NE_AD) advection, and Anticyclonic (ANTICYC). In particular, ANTICYC WT is the main atmospheric driver of FDs in summer. Ridging conditions occur frequently during FDs in all seasons, being the most important factor controlling FD development in spring. Likewise, we noted that some of the FDs recorded in summer are related to and/or exacerbated by Saharan air intrusions associated with pronounced ridges. The results of this research have important implications for the understanding, monitoring and prediction of FDs in Spain, providing a detailed assessment of the main atmospheric dynamics involved in FD triggering at different spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

White dwarfs offer a unique opportunity to search nearby stellar systems for signs of life, but the habitable zone around these stars is still poorly understood. Since white dwarfs are compact stars with low luminosity, any planets in their habitable zone should be tidally locked, like planets around M dwarfs. Unlike planets around M dwarfs, however, habitable white dwarf planets have to rotate very rapidly, with orbital periods ranging from hours to several days. Here we use the ExoCAM global climate model to investigate the inner edge of the habitable zone around white dwarfs. Our simulations show habitable planets with ultrashort orbital periods (P ≲ 1 day) enter a "bat rotation" regime, which differs from typical atmospheric circulation regimes around M dwarfs. Bat rotators feature mean equatorial subrotation and a displacement of the surface's hottest regions from the equator toward the midlatitudes. We qualitatively explain the onset of bat rotation using shallow water theory. The resulting circulation shifts increase the dayside cloud cover and decrease the stratospheric water vapor, expanding the white dwarf habitable zone by ∼50% compared to estimates based on 1D models. The James Webb Space Telescope should be able to quickly characterize bat rotators around nearby white dwarfs thanks to their distinct thermal phase curves. Our work underlines that tidally locked planets on ultrashort orbits may exhibit unique atmospheric dynamics, and guides future habitability studies of white dwarf systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau significantly impacts the climate, hydrology, and ecology of China and East Asia. Current studies mainly use snow cover days to describe its duration, overlooking the snow's discontinuous nature. This study analyzes snow phenology and the spatiotemporal distribution of continuous snow cover events on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2019. The findings indicate that continuous snow cover days better capture the temporal discontinuity of snow cover compared to snow cover days. The contribution and continuity are lower than regions like North America, Europe, Northeast and Xinjiang in China, indicating poorer snow cover continuity on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Additionally, we found that temperature and precipitation, especially autumn temperatures and spring and winter precipitation, significantly impact various snow indices. Wind speed also significantly impacts snow cover, particularly in autumn. Atmospheric circulation indirectly affects the snow cover discontinuity by influencing temperature and precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The earliest Asian summer monsoon onset (SMO) occurs in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), heralding the coming of the rainy season. In late April or early May, the strong sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal variation accompanied by ocean surface warming triggers the SMO. However, this observed diurnal cycle intensity cannot be reasonably simulated by state‐of‐the‐art climate models, resulting in a spurious delayed SMO. To address this issue, the SST diurnal cycle parameterized by a diagnostic sublayer scheme was incorporated into a climate model named FIO‐ESM v2.0. The large diurnal amplitude of SST contributes to surface warming and changes atmospheric circulation. Consequently, the high‐pressure anomaly at high levels and an inverted trough at low levels promote more convective activity, triggering an earlier SMO. Our findings improve the ability of climate models in simulating the evolution of the Asian monsoon system. Plain Language Summary: Asian summer monsoon onset (SMO) accompanied by the coming of the rainy season has a significant impact on the lives and livelihoods of more than half of the world's population. However, state‐of‐the‐art climate models struggle to capture the major features of SMO accurately. The simulated diurnal amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller compared with observation, resulting in a cold bias in SST and a delayed SMO in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Here, we incorporated a diagnostic sublayer parameterization into the climate model to account for the effect of a strong diurnal cycle. The SST in the BoB increases, and more convective activities are promoted in response to the warmer underlying surface. Changes in monsoon circulation create favorable environmental conditions for an advanced SMO. Considering the effect of strong diurnal variation provides a solution to reduce common biases of the climate model in simulating SMO. Key Points: The spurious delayed Asian summer monsoon onset (SMO) is improved by including the effect of large sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal amplitude in a climate modelStrong diurnal variation of SST contributes to upper ocean warming in the Bay of Bengal before the Asian SMOLarge‐scale circulation with favorable conditions for convection activity in response to ocean warming triggers an advanced monsoon onset [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate characteristics of remote rainfall events in Taiwan from September to February over 41 years (1980–2020) are studied. These events are induced by the interaction between the northeasterly flow and the typhoon's outer circulation. Our findings reveal that rainfall in northeastern Taiwan becomes more prominent when tropical cyclones move to the remote rainfall‐prone area, located in the north Philippine area to the northern South China Sea, and when the background northeasterly wind speed exceeds 7 m s−1. Under these criteria, the confluence of the typhoon's outer circulation and the northeasterly flow creates a convergence area that enhances rainfall in northeastern Taiwan, increasing the occurrence of moderate to extreme rainfall (ER) events. This leads to an average enhancement in rainfall amount of 80–220 mm per day. Additionally, when typhoons are in the remote rainfall‐prone area, there is a greater than 20% chance for events with maximum rainfall over 200 mm day−1 to occur, particularly in the region of 20°–22°N, 116°−124°E, and north to Luzon Island. In this area, the occurrence rate can exceed more than a 45% chance. The highest risk of ER events occurs between 20°–22°N and 118°−120°E, with a probability of over 90%. Notably, the convergence area for the Taiwan cases does not necessarily coincide with the baroclinic forcing as that associated with remote rainfall events observed in Japan, Korea, and North America. Plain Language Summary: We studied a particular pattern of rainfall in Taiwan that occurs between September and February over a 41‐year period (1980–2020). Our research found that when tropical cyclones (TCs) are far from Taiwan and there is a strong northeasterly wind, it causes more rainfall in northeastern Taiwan. This can lead to moderate to extreme rainfall, with an increase in rainfall of 80–220 mm per day. When tropical storms are in a specific area north of Luzon Island, there is a higher chance of heavy rain, with some places receiving more than 200 mm per day. The highest probability of extreme rain events occurs when TCs are in a specific area between 20°–22°N and 118°−120°E, where the chance of extreme rain in Taiwan is over 90%. It happens because the TC circulation meets with the northeasterly flow and creates a convergence area. It's important to note that the way remote rainfall events happen in Taiwan may not be the same as in Japan, Korea, and North America. Key Points: Northeastern Taiwan experiences heavy rainfall as tropical cyclone (TC) move toward North South China Sea while northeasterly flow >7 m/sTyphoons' outer flow and the northeasterly convergence enhanced remote rainfall events to 80–220 mm/dayAbove 45% of events with max daily rainfall over 200 mm occur when TCs are in the 20°–22°N, 116°–124°E area and north to Luzon Island [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The width of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affects tropical rainfall, Earth's albedo, large-scale circulation, and climate sensitivity. To better understand the ITCZ width and its effects on global climate, we present a protocol to force changes in ITCZ width in climate models. Starting from an aquaplanet configuration with a slab ocean, adding surface heat fluxes in the deep tropics forces the ITCZ to narrow, and subtracting them causes it to widen. The protocol successfully generates changes in ITCZ width in all four climate models used in this study. ITCZ width in each model responds linearly to forcing magnitude and sign. Comparing across the four climate models, a response to varying ITCZ width that is remarkably consistent among models is the ITCZ strength, which is greater the narrower the ITCZ. On the other hand, the effect of varying ITCZ width on climate sensitivity is divergent among our four models, varying even in sign. Results from this pilot study highlight the connections between surface fluxes, ITCZ width, and the wider climate. A comprehensive model intercomparison project (MIP) has the potential to advance understanding of both the physical processes shaping ITCZ width and its influence on remote atmospheric circulations and global climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantitative characterization and prediction of localized severe weather events that emerge as coherences generated by the highly non-linear interacting multivariate dynamics of global weather systems poses a significant challenge whose solution is increasingly important in the face of climate change where weather extremes are on the rise. As weather measurement systems (multiband satellite, radar, etc) continue to dramatically improve, increasingly complex time-dependent multivariate 3D datasets offer the potential to inform such problems but pose an increasingly daunting computational challenge. Here we describe the application to global weather systems of a novel computational method called the Entropy Field Decomposition (EFD) capable of efficiently characterizing coherent spatiotemporal structures in non-linear multivariate interacting physical systems. Using the EFD derived system configurations, we demonstrate the application of a second novel computational method called Space-Time Information Trajectories (STITs) that reveal how spatiotemporal coherences are dynamically connected. The method is demonstrated on the specific phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) which are a prime example of a highly coherent, in both space and time, severe weather phenomenon whose generation and persistence are influenced by weather dynamics on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The EFD reveals how the interacting wind vector field and humidity scalar field couple to produce ARs, while the resulting STITS reveal the linkage between ARs and large-scale planetary circulations. The focus on ARs is also motivated by their devastating social and economic effects that have made them the subject of increasing scientific investigation to which the EFD may offer new insights. The application of EFD and STITs to the broader range of severe weather events is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying seismic CH4 anomalies via remote sensing has been verified as a legitimate method. However, there are still some problems, such as unknown reliability due to the complex characteristics of seismic anomalies. In this study, a multi-dimensional and multi-scale methane seismic anomaly extraction process for remote sensing was constructed with the Robust Satellite Technique (RST) based on the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CH4 data and then applied to the 2023 Türkiye–Syria earthquake. This study obtained the two-dimensional temporal–spatial distribution of methane anomalies and temporal variation in the anomaly index. Based on this, the three-dimensional profile structure of the 8-day methane anomaly was extracted to determine the reliability of the anomaly. Finally, based on the daily methane anomaly, combined with atmospheric circulation and backward trajectory analysis as auxiliary tools, the influence of air mass migration was excluded to enhance the accuracy of CH4 anomaly determination. The results show that the three-dimensional anomalous structure is consistent with the geological characteristics of tectonic activities, and it appears as a "pyramid" or "inverted pyramid" type in a three-dimensional space. The anomalies caused by air mass migration can be eliminated by combining them with synoptic-scale circulation motion. The time series calculated at the epicenter or a certain point in a region may not accurately reflect the influence of regional or specific tectonic activity in the atmosphere. Thus, the optimal determination of the range and magnitude of atmospheric anomalies caused by tectonic activities is a difficult task for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) can strongly modulate middle atmospheric circulation and can be a significant factor for the coupling between the lower atmosphere and the middle atmosphere. GWs are difficult to resolve in global atmospheric models due to their small scale; thus, GW observations play an important role in middle atmospheric studies. The climatology of GW variance and momentum in the low-latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region are revealed using multiple meteor radars, which are located at Kunming (25.6°N, 103.8°E), Sanya (18.4°N, 109.6°E), and Fuke (19.5°N, 109.1°E). The climatology and longitudinal variations in GW momentum fluxes and variance over the low-latitude region are reported. The GWs show strong seasonal variations and can greatly control the mesospheric horizontal winds via modulation of the quasi-geostrophic balance and momentum deposition. The different GW activities between Kunming and Sanya/Fuke are possibly consistent with the unique prevailing surface winds over Kunming and the convective system over the Tibetan Plateau according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. These findings provide insight for better understanding the coupling between the troposphere and mesosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling's influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ∼25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes' relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer drought over northern Asia (NA) seriously threatens the local fragile ecological environment and social economy development. In this study, using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), we first identify the dominant modes of interannual variability in summer drought condition over NA and then explore the atmospheric patterns responsible for the formation of the modes. The results show that the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) mode of summer SPEI over NA exhibits a meridional dipole pattern, which is influenced primarily by the polar–Eurasian teleconnection (POL) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns. Under the influence of negative POL and positive CGT patterns, there is an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over northwestern Siberia (Lake Baikal to Northeast China). Such atmospheric circulations lead to meridional dipole patterns in air temperature, moisture condition, vertical motion, and cloud cover over NA, favoring decreased (increased) precipitation and increased (decreased) potential evapotranspiration over northern (southern) NA, finally contributing to the formation of EOF1. The second EOF (EOF2) shows an approximate zonal dipole pattern, which is influenced by the British–Baikal Corridor (BBC) and Scandinavia (SCA) teleconnection patterns. The positive BBC and SCA patterns can lead to an anomalous anticyclone over the Ural Mountains and a cyclone over Lake Baikal. Such atmospheric circulations result in a zonal dipole pattern in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over NA through changing the local moisture condition, air temperature, and radiation, consequently favoring the formation of EOF2. Fitting analysis indicates that the aforementioned atmospheric factors can explain 76% (55%) of the interannual variability of EOF1 (EOF2). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exhibit large biases in Arctic sea ice climatology that seem related to biases in seasonal atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Using historical runs of 34 CMIP6 models from 1979 to 2014, we investigate the links between the climatological sea ice concentration (SIC) biases in September and atmospheric and oceanic model climatologies. The main intermodel spread of September SIC is well described by two leading EOFs, which together explain ∼65% of its variance. The first EOF represents an underestimation or overestimation of SIC in the whole Arctic, while the second EOF describes opposite SIC biases in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. Regression analysis indicates that the two SIC modes are closely related to departures from the multimodel mean of Arctic surface heat fluxes during summer, primarily shortwave and longwave radiation, with incoming Atlantic Water playing a role in the Atlantic sector. Local and global links with summer cloud cover, low-level humidity, upper or lower troposphere temperature/circulation, and oceanic variables are also found. As illustrated for three climate models, the local relationships with the SIC biases are mostly similar in the Arctic across the models but show varying degrees of Atlantic inflow influence. On a global scale, a strong influence of the summer atmospheric circulation on September SIC is suggested for one of the three models, while the atmospheric influence is primarily via thermodynamics in the other two. Clear links to the North Atlantic oceanic circulation are seen in one of the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study investigates the modulation of the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency (TCF) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) by the southern annular mode (SAM). The analysis reveals that the SAM–TCF relationship during October–November–December has undergone interdecadal changes from significant during 1971–1994 to insignificant during 1995–2021. This contrasting influence of the SAM on the TCF occurrence is also echoed in the large‐scale environmental variables conducive to forming tropical cyclones (TCs). Based on the possible mechanism, we found that the SAM can imprint tripole sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the southern Indian Ocean via altering surface wind speed from 1971 to 1994. The SAM‐related tripole SST pattern induces the surface‐level anticyclone anomaly, which enhances the south easterlies towards the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Such intensified anomalous wind crosses the equator and diverts towards the east to form the cyclone anomaly in the BoB. Meanwhile, at 200 hPa, the anomalous anticyclone over western Australia induces divergent wind flows over the study region. Consequently, the ascending motion in BoB promotes the tropical cyclone generation. During 1995–2021, however, the SAM is associated with the dipole SST pattern in the southern Indian Ocean. Correspondingly, the SAM‐related dipole SST yields anomalous atmospheric circulations confined to the Southern Hemisphere and eventually fails to impact the formation of TCs in the northern Indian Ocean, where the study region is located. The findings of this research can be useful in advancing our knowledge of the interannual variability of TCs activity in the BoB based on the remote climate signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent drought has posed widespread, large-scale and extremely severe impact on the ecological environment under global climate and human activities. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of drought in China. A threshold of -0.5 was chosen to identify drought conditions. A raster was set as the drought state at standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) less than -0.5. The start and end times of drought were varied for each raster within a single event, indicating the dynamic and evolving drought. At the same time, some rasters exited the drought states, while others entering. The contribution rates of drought to rasters were calculated at a given time, in order to capture the dynamic changes in drought. Three perspectives were considered: the extent of drought impact, duration, and severity. The SPEI was then used to assess the drought, in order to introduce the concept of persistent drought rasters. Large-scale and persistent drought events were identified to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution from 1961 to 2020, together with their response mechanisms to the atmospheric circulation. The research findings can be summarized as follows: 1) A total of 47 events occurred between 1961 and 2020. The 1970s witnessed the highest frequency of large-scale persistent drought events, with 10 occurrences, while the 2000s and 2010s each experienced 9 such events. The average duration of these drought events was 7.14 months, with the longest average duration in the 1960s at 11.83 months. The average extent was 28.66%, with the highest average extent index reaching 33.75% in the 2000s.The average severity was -2.86 for the 47 large-scale persistent drought events. Between 1980 and 2010, the average area affected by persistent drought events each decade showed a continuous expanding trend. Between 1970 and 2020, the average duration of persistent drought events each decade was concentrated between 4 to 8 months. 2) Before the 1990s, the lag time of Oceanic Niño Index's impact on spring precipitation was 3 and 9 months. From then on, the ONI's influence on summer and autumn precipitation extended to 6, 9, and 12 months. Once La Niña events occurred, there was the decrease in the spring precipitation, thereby increasing the frequency of spring droughts in China. 3) There was a resonance period of 16-48 months between ONI and SPEI3 during the years 1961-1976, 1980-1988, 1994-2001, and 2006-2020. The ONI index also demonstrated the strongest correlation with SPEI3 in this timeframe. While the WP index exhibited the weakest correlation with SPEI3 during the same periods.The research results help further understand the causes and patterns of drought in China, thereby enhancing the scientific basis and precision of drought prevention and mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radar detection technology has been used to observe meteors since the last century. According to the echoes of electromagnetic waves scattered by meteor trails, the drift velocity of meteors is calculated to research the atmospheric dynamics characteristics in their distribution height. In this paper, complementary code sequences are applied to a Very High Frequency (VHF) ionospheric sounding system. Unlike the common VHF meteor radar, the system parameters can be set with a pulse duty cycle, allowing for flexible adjustment of detection range. At the same time, the detection frequency can also be adjusted within a certain range, breaking through the traditional fixed frequency detection mode. Moreover, by employing a miniaturized antenna array composed of an orthogonal dipole antenna for the VHF receiving, the system takes account of the requirements of the inversion algorithms of meteor radar and the detection need for the irregularities sounding concurrently, achieving the function of detecting multiple targets. Therefore, the system is called the Wuhan VHF Comprehensive Sounding (WHCS) system. This system has the function of integrating transmission and reception, which can be directly detected by a single station or synchronously detected through the separation of transmission and reception. This system has the function of internal channel calibration to compensate for the phase error of meteor echoes. Through further analysis of the detection data, the height distribution of meteors, as well as typical echoes of ionospheric irregularities, were obtained. The experiments verified the availability of the system scheme and its engineering application significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation plays a crucial role in the hydrological cycle and is vital for water resources management, climate change research, and ecosystem conservation. Precipitation stable isotopes serve as the 'fingerprints' of precipitation, which can clearly trace the formation, transport, and subsequent processes of precipitation. However, due to the scarcity of precipitation stable isotope data, we face challenges of temporal discontinuity and spatial heterogeneity when studying it at large to medium scales. Therefore, we compiled precipitation hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope data (δ18O and δ2H) from 2059 global sites spanning from 1961 to 2023, totaling 141,624 records. Our study indicates significant variations of global precipitation stable isotopes both spatially and temporally. Spatially, the isotopic composition of precipitation in different regions varies significantly due to factors such as geographical location, underlying surface conditions, and atmospheric circulation. Temporally, δ18O and δ2H show decreasing trends, while d-excess shows an increasing trend, with the impact of global temperature rise being very apparent. This precipitation stable isotope dataset provides robust support for our understanding of global precipitation changes and climate change. Through further investigation of precipitation stable isotope data, we hope to uncover more mechanisms and influencing factors of precipitation processes, providing a more accurate basis for the assessment and prediction of climate and water resource changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale meteorological events (e.g. cyclones), referred to as synoptic events, strongly influence weather predictability but still cannot be fully characterised in the Arctic region because of the sparse coverage of measurements. Due to the fact that atmospheric dynamics in the lower stratosphere and troposphere influence the ozone field, one approach to analyse these events further is the use of space-borne measurements of ozone vertical distributions and total columns in addition to conventional parameters such as pressure or wind speed. In this study we investigate the link between cyclones and changes in stratospheric ozone by using a combination of unique measurements during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) ship expedition, ozone profile and total column observations by satellite instruments (OMPS-LP, TROPOMI), and ERA5 reanalysis data. The final goal of the study is to assess whether the satellite ozone data can be used to obtain information about cyclones and provide herewith an additional value in the assimilation by numerical weather prediction models. Three special cases during the MOSAiC expedition were selected and classified for the analysis. They are one "normal" cyclone, where a low surface pressure coincides with a minimum in tropopause height, and two "untypical" cyclones, where this is not observed. The influence of cyclone events on ozone in the upper-troposphere lower-stratosphere (UTLS) region was investigated, using the fact that both are correlated with tropopause height changes. The negative correlation between tropopause height from ERA5 and ozone columns was investigated in the Arctic region for the 3-month period from June to August 2020. This was done using total ozone columns and sub-columns from TROPOMI, OMPS-LP, and MOSAiC ozonesonde data. The greatest influence of tropopause height changes on ozone contour levels occurs at an altitude between 10 and 20 km. Moreover, the lowering of the 250 ppb ozonopause (at about 11 km altitude) below 9 km was used to detect cyclones using OMPS-LP ozone observations. The potential of this approach was demonstrated in two case studies where the boundaries of cyclones could be determined using ozone observations. The results of this study can help improve our understanding of the relationship between cyclones, tropopause height, and ozone in the Arctic and demonstrate the usability of satellite ozone data in addition to the conventional parameters for investigating cyclones in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistent winter aerosol pollution frequently occurs in the Sichuan Basin (SCB) due to its unfavourable weather conditions, such as low wind, wetness, and cloudiness. Based on long-term observational data analyses from 2015–2021, it has been found that the four representative stations in the SCB often simultaneously experience PM2.5 pollution accompanied by variations in meteorological conditions above 850 hPa , which indicates a connection between regional winter air pollution in the SCB and large-scale synoptic patterns. The dominant 850 hPa synoptic patterns of winter in the SCB were classified into six patterns using T-model principal component analysis: (1) strong high pressure in the north, (2) east high–west low (EHWL) pressure, (3) weak high pressure in the north, (4) a weak ridge of high pressure after the trough, (5) a low trough (LT), and (6) strong high pressure. Pattern 2 characterized by the EHWL pressure system, and Pattern 5, featured with LT, was identified as having key synoptic patterns for the beginning and accumulation of pollution processes. Pattern 1, characterized by a strong high pressure in the north, was the cleanest pattern associated with reduced PM2.5 concentrations. The EHWL and LT patterns were associated with a remarkably high cloud liquid content attributed to upper southerly winds introducing humid air. Clouds reduce solar radiation through reflection and scattering, resulting in more stable stratification and aerosol accumulation. This cloud radiation interaction (CRI) was more pronounced in the LT pattern due to denser isobaric lines and stronger southerly winds than in the EHWL pattern. Numerical simulation experiments utilizing WRF-Chem indicated that there is an upper-level heating during afternoon and surface cooling in the morning forced by the aerosol radiation interaction (ARI) under the EHWL and LT patterns. Additionally, strong surface cooling in the evening influenced by valley winds could be found. With wet and cloudy synoptic forcing, ARI directly affects the stability of the boundary layer and is modulated through CRI inhibition. For example, Chongqing exhibited lower PM2.5 concentrations and stronger ARI compared to the western and southern SCB due to lower cloud liquid content and weaker CRI inhibition on the ARI. The CRI inhibition caused a 50 % reduction in solar radiation and boundary layer height during the daytime under the LT pattern, which was larger than that under the EHWL pattern. This study comprehensively analysed the spatial disparities in cloud inhibition on the ARIs, their impacts on the boundary layer structure, and the discrepancies of these interactions under different synoptic patterns during pollution processes. The findings have important implications for the effective management of pollution processes in cloudy and foggy weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean circulation plays an important role in the formation and occurrence of extreme climate events. The study shows that the periodic variation of ocean circulation under strong wind stress is closely related to climate oscillation. Ocean circulation is a nonlinear dynamic system, which shows complex nonlinear characteristics, so the essence behind ocean circulation has not been clearly explained. Therefore, the response and evolution of the circulation system to wind stress are studied based on the bifurcation and catastrophe theories in nonlinear dynamics. First, the quasi-geostrophic gyre equation and the normalized gravity model are introduced and developed to study ocean circulation driven by wind stress, and solved using the Galerkin method. Then, the bifurcation and catastrophe behaviors of the system governed by the low-order ocean circulation model during the change in wind stress intensity and the coexistence of multiple equilibria in the circulation system are studied in detail. The results show that saddle and unstable nodes appear in the system after a cusp catastrophe. With the change in model parameters, the unstable node becomes the unstable focus, and then the subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurs. The system forms a bistable interval when the system undergoes a catastrophe twice, and the system shows hysteresis. In addition, multiple equilibrium states are coexisting in the circulating system, and the unstable equilibrium state always changes into a stable equilibrium state through vortex movement. Therefore, there is a route for the system to induce short-term climate oscillation, that is, in the multi-stable equilibrium state of the system, the vortex oscillates after being subject to small disturbances, and then triggers climate oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the dry season, river flow gradually diminishes, and surface water flow dries up. Therefore, the investigation of runoff during the dry season is of great practical significance for rational water allocation and water resource management. Based on hydrological station data from the Xijiang River Basin (XRB) from 1961 to 2020, this study examines the trend and periodic characteristics of dry-season runoff, identifies fluctuation and variability in dry-season runoff, and investigates the main circulation factor combinations influencing dynamic changes in dry-season runoff. The results indicate the following: (1) the characteristics of dry-season runoff variations are basically consistent across sub-basins in the XRB during the study period, with the minimum (21.96 × 108 m3) and maximum (54.67 × 108 m3) average monthly runoff occurring in February and October, respectively; (2) interannual-scale dry-season runoff exhibits periodicity of 3.53 years and 7.5 years; (3) using the Bayesian estimator of abrupt seasonal and trend change algorithm (BEAST), a seasonal abrupt point with a probability of 20.5% occurs in 1983, and the confidence interval for this abrupt point is from 1980 to 1986; (4) based on the cross wavelet approach, solar sunspots are identified as the primary circulation factor contributing to dry-season runoff in the XRB, exhibiting a significant 8–14 years resonance cycle of negative correlation with runoff during the high-energy phase from 1972 to 2006. These findings offer a new perspective on understanding the evolution of dry-season runoff and circulation factor variations, which are crucial for accurate prediction, early warning, and rational allocation of water resources during the dry season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are anomalously warm events that profoundly affect climate change and local ecosystem. During the summer of 2012 (June-September), intense MHWs occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) concurrently with an unseasonable positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) event. The MHW metrics (duration, frequency, cumulative intensity and maximum intensity) were characterized by northwestward-slanted patterns from west Australia to the Somalia coast. The analysis confirmed that these MHWs were closely associated with the unseasonable pIOD 2012. The weakening of Western North Pacific Subtropical High and strengthening of Australian High in spring induced an interhemispheric pressure gradient that drove two anticyclonic circulation patterns over the eastern TIO. The first anticyclonic circulation featured cross-equatorial wind anomalies from south of Java to the South China Sea/Philippine Sea, which led to strong upwelling off Sumatra-Java during the subsequent summer. The second anticyclonic circulation excited downwelling Rossby waves that propagated from the southeastern TIO to the western TIO. Thus, downwelling in the western pole and upwelling in the eastern pole led to a strong pIOD event peaking in summer, namely, the unseasonable pIOD 2012. These downwelling Rossby waves deepened the thermocline by more than 60 m and caused anomalous surface warming, thereby contributing to the occurrences of MHWs. With the development and peak of the unseasonable pIOD 2012, anomalous atmospheric circulation transported moisture from the TIO to the subtropical Western North Pacific (WNP), favoring a strong cyclonic anomaly that profoundly affected the summer monsoon rainfall over the subtropical WNP. This study provides some perspectives on the role of pIOD events in summer climate over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heat storage capacity of Southern Ocean (SO) buffers future atmospheric warming but differs vastly across climate models. Reducing its projection uncertainty is vital for understanding and evaluating future global sustainability. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we show that the present-day SO high-latitude easterly wind anomalies induced by El Niño is an effective constraint for the projected increase in SO heat content. Models simulating weaker El Niño-induced easterlies generate more equatorward atmospheric teleconnection in the present day. Under global warming, these models have greater capacity in the poleward shift of atmospheric circulation, thus generate stronger future increase in El Niño-induced high-latitude easterlies, slowing the SO heat storage by weakening the northward Ekman transport that underpins the dynamical process for SO heat storage. However, most models overestimate the present-day El Niño-induced easterlies, implying that alleviating this bias would reduce future SO heat storage, thus exacerbating atmospheric warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humid heat extreme (HHE) is a type of compound extreme weather event that poses severe risks to human health. Skillful forecasts of HHE months in advance are crucial for developing strategies to enhance community resilience to extreme events1,2. This study demonstrates that the frequency of summertime HHE in the southeastern United States (SEUS) can be skillfully predicted 0–1 months in advance using the SPEAR (Seamless system for Prediction and EArth system Research) seasonal forecast system. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) basin are identified as the primary driver of this prediction skill. The responses of large-scale atmospheric circulation and winds to anomalous warm SSTs in the TNA favor the transport of heat and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to the SEUS. This research underscores the role of slowly varying sea surface conditions in modifying large-scale environments, thereby contributing to the skillful prediction of HHE in the SEUS. The results of this study have potential applications in the development of early warning systems for HHE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The features of large-scale atmospheric circulations, storm tracks, and the mean flow–eddy interaction during winter Pacific–North American (PNA) events are investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis data at subseasonal time scales from 1979 to 2022. The day-to-day variations of storm-track activity and streamfunction reveal that storm-track activity varies along the evolution of mean flow. To better understand storm-track variability with the mean flow–eddy interaction, further exploration is made by analyzing local energy energetics. The changes in horizontal and vertical baroclinic energy conversions from background flow correspond to the storm-track anomalies over the North Pacific, indicating that the anomalies in storm tracks are due to the anomalous mean flow associated with PNA patterns impacting energy conversion through mean flow–eddy interaction. Eddy feedback driven by vorticity and heat fluxes is analyzed. This provides a concrete illustration of how eddy feedback serves as a positive factor for the upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies associated with the PNA pattern. Significance Statement: The background flow plays a crucial role in governing storm-track dynamics. Our emphasis is on the Pacific storm tracks (PST) and their relation to Pacific–North American (PNA) patterns at subseasonal time scales. We unveil the relationship between anomalies of PST and PNA patterns using local energetics and eddy feedback on a day-by-day basis. It is noteworthy that the evolution of anomalous storm tracks during PNA events is the manifestation of mean flow–eddy interaction. Additionally, we provide detailed confirmation of the impact of anomalous storm tracks on large-scale anomalies associated with the PNA pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is characterized by a desert climate, with rainfall mainly occurring during the cooler months (November–April) and sometimes in conjunction with intense extratropical systems that can cause serious damage and casualties. Given the vast size of KSA, there are gaps in understanding the association between large‐scale atmospheric circulations and local organized rainfall events, and in characterizing the diversity of this association. To address these gaps, we analyse an in‐house 5‐km horizontal grid spacing regional atmospheric reanalysis that has been specifically generated for the Arabian Peninsula to explore the mechanisms behind the organized rainfall events over KSA. Nine major regions with distinct climate regimes were objectively selected to represent KSA rainfall climatology. The results demonstrate that organized thunderstorms over KSA only occur under sufficient moisture and environmental instabilities. Mesoscale convective systems responsible for organized rainfall generally develop and propagate with low‐level moisture flow from the nearby seas (the Red Sea to the west and Arabian Gulf to the east) toward the desert. In the central part of KSA, the most frequent physical mechanism responsible for rainfall is winter extratropical influence, followed by spring extratropical–tropical interactions, and spring tropical influence. The east coast is characterized by two rainfall modes: a continuous southwest–northeast rain corridor and concentrated southwestern rain. Large‐scale organized convection following three physically distinct mechanisms (extratropical, transition and tropical) is revealed along the west coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the physical mechanism behind the formation of summer heat-drought weather (HDW) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) holds significant importance for predicting summer precipitation and temperature patterns in the region as well as disaster mitigation and prevention. This study focuses on spatiotemporal patterns of July–August (JA) HDW in the YRB from 1979 to 2022, which is linked partially to the preceding May–June (MJ) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Key findings are summarized as follows: (1) The MJ AAO displays a marked positive correlation with the JA HDW index (HDWI) in the southern part of upper YRB (UYRB), while showing a negative correlation in the area extending from the Han River to the western lower reaches of the YRB (LYRB); (2) The signal of MJ AAO persists into late JA through a specific pattern of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the Southern Ocean (SOSST). This, in turn, modulates the atmospheric circulation over East Asia; (3) The SST anomalies in the South Atlantic initiate Rossby waves that cross the equator, splitting into two branches. One branch propagates from the Somali-Tropical Indian Ocean, maintaining a negative-phased East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern. This enhances the moisture flow from the Pacific towards the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MYRB-LYRB). The other branch propagates northward, crossing the Somali region, and induces a positive geopotential height anomaly over Urals-West Asia. This reduces the southwesterlies towards the UYRB, thereby contributing to HDW variabilities in the region. (4) Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) demonstrated predictive capability for JA HDW in the YRB for 2022, based on Southern Ocean SST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report on a novel fluid dynamics experiment configuration based on a modified version of the differentially heated rotating annulus, a widely used laboratory model of the large-scale mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. Through applying an azimuthally (zonally) inhomogeneous, dipole-like thermal boundary condition—imitating a permanent "day side" and "night side" in the rotating setting—we explore the character of the flow patterns emerging at different values of the zonal temperature contrast and rotation rate. This configuration may prove to be a useful minimal model of the large-scale atmospheric circulation of tidally locked exoplanets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the current environment of climate change, the precipitation situation of marine islands is particularly valued. So, this study explores precipitation characteristics and mechanisms over Sri Lanka in the background of the western Indian Ocean using satellite and reanalysis datasets based on 40 years (from 1981 to 2020). The results show that the highest precipitation occurs between October and December, accounting for 46.3% of the entire year. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature warming after 2002 significantly influences precipitation patterns. Particularly during the Second Inter-Monsoon, the western Indian Ocean warming induces an east–west zonal sea surface temperature gradient, leading to low-level circulation and westerly wind anomalies. This, in turn, results in increased precipitation in Sri Lanka between October and December. This study used the Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator to study nine extreme precipitation indices, identifying a significant upward trend in extreme precipitation events in the Jaffna, arid northern Sri Lanka, peaking on 9 November 2021. This extreme event is due to the influence of weather systems like the Siberian High and intense convective activities, transporting substantial moisture to Jaffna from the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal during winter. The findings highlight the impact of sea surface temperature warming anomalies in the western Indian Ocean and extreme precipitation events, anticipated to be more accentuated during Sri Lanka's monsoon season. This research provides valuable insights into the variability of tropical precipitation, offering a scientific basis for the sustainable development of marine islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its high short-term global warming potential (GWP) compared to carbon dioxide, methane (CH4) is a considerable agent of climate change. This research is aimed at analyzing data on methane gathered at the GAW (Global Atmosphere Watch) station of Lamezia Terme (Calabria, Southern Italy) spanning seven years of continuous measurements (2016–2022) and integrating the results with key meteorological data. Compared to previous studies on detected methane mole fractions at the same station, daily-to-yearly patterns have become more prominent thanks to the analysis of a much larger dataset. Overall, the yearly increase of methane at the Lamezia Terme station is in general agreement with global measurements by NOAA, though local peaks are present, and an increase linked to COVID-19 is identified. Seasonal changes and trends have proved to be fully cyclic, with the daily cycles being largely driven by local wind circulation patterns and synoptic features. Outbreak events have been statistically evaluated depending on their weekday of occurrence to test possible correlations with anthropogenic activities. A cross analysis between methane peaks and specific wind directions has also proved that local sources may be deemed responsible for the highest mole fractions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]