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The present study seeks to examine the interaction among three separate variables. The initial variable relates to the organization's life cycle and financial attributes. The second variable pertains to the procedures of firm management that influence performance and financial condition, as demonstrated by earnings management. Investors manage the impact of the previous two factors by weighing the risks and potential gains, which the corporation terms as "the cost of equity." We utilized these variables to analyze 15 Iraqi commercial banks that have been listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for 10 years, equivalent to 150 observations. Our quantitative assessment of the study variables, conducted using models from the relevant literature, has yielded significant findings. We have uncovered a direct correlation between the life cycle and earnings management, indicating a beneficial association. Moreover, we have revealed that each factor exerts a unique and favourable influence on the cost of equity. The correlation between the life cycle and earnings management has led to an increase in the favourable influence of earnings management on the cost of equity. Conversely, the life cycle now has an inverse impact on the cost of equity, with the cost of equity being mainly influenced by the maturity stage. These findings have important implications for stock market traders, as they guide them to direct their investments towards banks that offer higher returns relative to the level of risk, considering the age group and the administration's approach to managing announced profits. This study's implications for stock market traders are significant, as it provides them with valuable insights for making informed investment decisions. It also serves as a guide for future studies in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study seeks to examine the interaction among three separate variables. The initial variable relates to the organization's life cycle and financial attributes. The second variable pertains to the procedures of firm management that influence performance and financial condition, as demonstrated by earnings management. Investors manage the impact of the previous two factors by weighing the risks and potential gains, which the corporation terms as "the cost of equity." We utilized these variables to analyze 15 Iraqi commercial banks that have been listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for 10 years, equivalent to 150 observations. Our quantitative assessment of the study variables, conducted using models from the relevant literature, has yielded significant findings. We have uncovered a direct correlation between the life cycle and earnings management, indicating a beneficial association. Moreover, we have revealed that each factor exerts a unique and favourable influence on the cost of equity. The correlation between the life cycle and earnings management has led to an increase in the favourable influence of earnings management on the cost of equity. Conversely, the life cycle now has an inverse impact on the cost of equity, with the cost of equity being mainly influenced by the maturity stage. These findings have important implications for stock market traders, as they guide them to direct their investments towards banks that offer higher returns relative to the level of risk, considering the age group and the administration's approach to managing announced profits. This study's implications for stock market traders are significant, as it provides them with valuable insights for making informed investment decisions. It also serves as a guide for future studies in this field.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of behavioral deviations on the pricing of financial assets with the assumption that sentiment is an important and relevant risk factor in the Iranian capital market. This paper also examines the effect of sentiment, momentum, size, value, and market risk premium by estimating the Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Model (APT). In order to perform empirical analysis, the quarterly returns of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2010-2019 in the form of 18 stock exchange groups including 63 listed companies are used. Using two indicators of market turnover sentiment. and sentiment effect. we estimate the sentiment index and by extending the Carhart model and considering two sentiment variables in the form of SAPM model, coefficients estimate by using Hausman-Taylor panel data method. The results of the model show that in the SAPM model, the sentiment variable is very important and significant and have a positive relationship with the average seasonal rate of return of different stock exchange groups.

This study empirically analyzes return data from select energy companies in developed and emerging markets using the Fama-French three- and five-factor asset-pricing models in crisis settings. It researches whether these models are suitable to produce meaningful return data in challenging economic circumstances. We use panel data covering 12 of the largest globally-operating energy companies from Russia, China, the US, the EU, and Saudi Arabia, covering a period between 2000 and 2022. The results undermine the general notion that the usage of available multi-factor asset-pricing models automatically yields meaningful data in all economic situations. The study reiterates the need to reconsider the assumption that the addition of more company-specific factors to regression models automatically yields better results. This study contributes to the existing literature by broadening this research area. It is the first study to specifically analyze the performance of companies from the energy sector in a crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic with the help of the Fama-French three- and five-factor models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to develop an analytical theory of share pricing in a financial market environment. The proposed approach corresponds to an actual auction mechanism in which an electronic stock exchange terminal processes real-time data. The theoretical framework is based on the microeconomic model of an individual investor’s net demand. Equity resources and resources of “free” capital (exchanged for shares) owned by traders and the investors’ perception of the structure of the target portfolio are considered the initial variables of the model. The model differs from the classical theory of asset pricing in its notion of fundamental variables. The relations derived for the aggregated net demand in the stock market describe share pricing as a market exchange that results in the Walrasian equilibrium approximation. The authors offered an appropriate econometric technique for estimating the parameters of instantaneous aggregated net demand. The developed approach was tested using the Walrasian equilibrium concept, which demonstrated that the modeled share price corresponded with the observed share price for the Russian financial market. As an example, the authors presented the results of the investment strategy based on the developed approach for the Russian financial market during the 2008–2009 crash. The authors based their approach on identifying the expectations of the stock market participants through an analysis of high-frequency trading platform information. The microeconomic model describes the motives of traders for placing limit orders in the stock market and associates the price and volume of a particular limit order within the parameters of the capital capacity of the net demand of the trader. The application of the algorithm allows for the monitoring of the financial market situation and reveals the market expectations of traders based on the analysis of information transmitted by an order book of a trading platform.

AbstractThe aim of this study was to introduce the Magnet Effect Factor (MEF) caused by the range of stock price fluctuations as a risk premium factor in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the multi-factor models of Fama and French. To answer the research questions, the information of 120 firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) during the period of 2010-2019 was used. According to Fama and French research, monthly returns of the portfolios were utilized for analysis. Then, using the panel data regression approach and GRS test, performances of the adjusted models with MEF were compared with those of the conventional models for explaining the stock returns. The results showed that MEF was effective in pricing capital assets and the developments of the research models with this factor and formation of the corresponding adjusted models improved performances of those models in explaining the difference in stock returns. The results also revealed that the adjusted 5-factor model with the MEF had better performance compared to the adjusted 3 and 6-factor models and the adjusted CAPM with the MEF.

Capital productivity concerns the measurement of management power in making optimal use of capital as one of the important and limited company resources. In companies with highly efficient capital productivity, stocks are expected to offer higher returns and the explanatory power of the models proposed to predict stock returns is assumed to increase. The purpose of this study was, thus, to examine the extent to which capital productivity might influence the explanatory power of stock market predictive models and to scrutinize this viable effect at various stages of corporate life cycle. The Operating Profit Ratio (ROIC) was used to operationalize Capital productivity, the Tripartite Factor Model (Fama & Franch, 1993) and the Pentagonal Factor Model (Fama & Franch, 2013) were employed to predict stock returns and corporate life cycle was categorized via the Dickinson Cash Flow (2011). The research sample comprised 110 companies with specific descriptive characteristics selected from among all those listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during a ten-year period from 2005 to 1394. The results of the hypothesis testing analyses demonstrated that capital productivity affects the relationship between market factor and risk-free growth at all stages of the life cycle, but size was found significantly correlated with risk merely at the maturity stage of the life cycle.

This paper aims to develop an analytical theory of share pricing in a financial market environment. The proposed approach corresponds to an actual auction mechanism in which an electronic stock exchange terminal processes real-time data. The theoretical framework is based on the microeconomic model of an individual investor's net demand. Equity resources and resources of "free" capital (exchanged for shares) owned by traders and the investors' perception of the structure of the target portfolio are considered the initial variables of the model. The model differs from the classical theory of asset pricing in its notion of fundamental variables. The relations derived for the aggregated net demand in the stock market describe share pricing as a market exchange that results in the Walrasian equilibrium approximation. The authors offered an appropriate econometric technique for estimating the parameters of instantaneous aggregated net demand. The developed approach was tested using the Walrasian equilibrium concept, which demonstrated that the modeled share price corresponded with the observed share price for the Russian financial market. As an example, the authors presented the results of the investment strategy based on the developed approach for the Russian financial market during the 2008-- 2009 crash. The authors based their approach on identifying the expectations of the stock market participants through an analysis of high-frequency trading platform information. The microeconomic model describes the motives of traders for placing limit orders in the stock market and associates the price and volume of a particular limit order within the parameters of the capital capacity of the net demand of the trader. The application of the algorithm allows for the monitoring of the financial market situation and reveals the market expectations of traders based on the analysis of information transmitted by an order book of a trading platform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically analyzes return data from select energy companies in developed and emerging markets using the Fama-French three- and five-factor asset-pricing models in crisis settings. It researches whether these models are suitable to produce meaningful return data in challenging economic circumstances. We use panel data covering 12 of the largest globally-operating energy companies from Russia, China, the US, the EU, and Saudi Arabia, covering a period between 2000 and 2022. The results undermine the general notion that the usage of available multi-factor asset-pricing models automatically yields meaningful data in all economic situations. The study reiterates the need to reconsider the assumption that the addition of more company-specific factors to regression models automatically yields better results. This study contributes to the existing literature by broadening this research area. It is the first study to specifically analyze the performance of companies from the energy sector in a crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic with the help of the Fama-French three- and five-factor models.

This paper examines the presence of herding on foreign trading at individual stock level and portfolio level in the Colombo Stock Exchange as a response to a long-standing trading belief that investors mimic the trading strategies of foreign investors. The standard CSAD framework of Chang et al (2000) is extended replacing return on market portfolio with return on market foreign portfolio holding in the model specification. The standard CSAD specification is also used to identify the presence of herding towards the market under high market volatility, bullish market condition, high trading and transaction volume, domestic and global market crisis and up and down market conditions. Except for the evidence on herding towards the market under bullish market condition at portfolio level, the regression results under other market conditions do not provide reasonable evidence for the presence of herding on foreign trading or herding towards the market on average. Further, taking CSAD as a proxy for heteroskedastic residuals following the framework of Banz (1981), the capital asset pricing model of Black (1972) is used to test the specification of CSAD. The findings suggest that the form of herding accounted for by CSAD is a manifestation of residual heteroskedasticity.

This study empirically analyzes and compares return data from developed and emerging market data based on the Fama French five-factor model and compares it to previous results from the Fama French three-factor model by Kostin, Runge and Adams (2021). It researches whether the addition of the profitability and investment pattern factors show superior results in the assessment of emerging markets during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to developed markets. We use panel data covering eight indices of developed and emerging countries as well as a selection of eight companies from these markets, covering a period from 2000 to 2020. Our findings suggest that emerging markets do not generally outperform developed markets. The results underscore the need to reconsider the assumption that adding more factors to regression models automatically yields results that are more reliable. Our study contributes to the extant literature by broadening this research area. It is the first study to compare the performance of the Fama French three-factor model and the Fama French five-factor model in the cost of equity calculation for developed and emerging countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and other crisis events of the past two decades.

We test the empirical validity of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) using cross-sectional stock returns on 31 stocks listed on the ZSE between March 2009 and February 2014. We conclude that, although the explanatory power of beta tends to fall rapidly for prediction horizons greater than 6 months, beta significantly explains average monthly stock returns on the ZSE. Tests to validate the CAPM reject its validity for the ZSE however, primarily due to liquidity and skewness anomalies. We nevertheless fail to detect any size effects. There is encouraging evidence to suggest that the CAPM performs reasonably well in predicting average monthly returns over prediction horizons of between 3 and 6 months. We recommend that investors and analysts must exercise extreme caution in applying the CAPM. Furthermore, we discourage strategies based on the existence of a size premium on the ZSE. Instead, investors may consider neglected and negatively skewed stocks, albeit over appropriate horizons. Further research on other African stock markets will help verify if the optimal performance range of the CAPM is indeed 3 to 6 months. Development of standard continental proxy market portfolios will also improve the estimation of betas and enhance results of cross-country tests of the CAPM.

Investment managers have traditionally resorted to the Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) as a means to growing portfolio return. The A-REITs have been popular for yielding some of the best returns until 2007, when the global financial market (GFC) collapse led to major fall in values. Since the GFC, with low interest rates the A-REITs have performed well compared to the broader stock and bond markets. Given low expectations of additional monetary easing, future rising interest rate environment can significantly impact A-REIT performance mainly in industry sectors with greater reliance on debt funding. Thus, this research explores the sensitivity of A-REITs performance to changes in short- and long-term interest rates across five sectors: diversified, industrial, retail, office and specialised (non-core) funds. The analysis covers a 21-year period (1995-2016) using the capital asset pricing model. In doing so, the research allows comparison of A-REITs performance at sub-sector level and over different market cycles. Findings indicate that both the diversified and retail sector exhibit strong relationship to market risk, short- and long-term interest rates. Rising short-term interest rates contribute to positive returns while rising long-term interest rates result in lower returns. However, the impacts of movements in interest rates on industrial, specialised (non-core) and office sectors were not well explained by the asset pricing model. This could be due to the relatively small sample size of these funds. Overall, the results suggests that gearing levels and by extension costs of debt, do play a significant role in the returns generating process. The paper offers a well-defined practical implication by suggesting that investors may hedge against interest rate risk by selecting A-REITs sub-sector funds with less leverage and large market capitalisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the sensitivity of the performance of Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) to changes in short and long term interest rates. Based on the intertemporal capital asset pricing model in Merton (1973), we propose an asset pricing model that consists of market returns, macroeconomic indicators, and short and long term interest rates. The effect of market capitalisation is also explored. High debt funds show greater sensitivity to adverse movements in long term interest rates compared to low debt funds. This suggests that gearing levels play a significant role in the returns generating process. All size based portfolios exhibit strong exposure to market risk with medium size A-REITs displaying greater sensitivity to movements in both short and long term interest rates. Although market risk became a stronger driver of returns during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the impact was less prominent post-GFC possibly due to already low levels of interest which created an environment of cheap credit. The implications for asset allocation strategies are that portfolio managers and other investors can reduce exposure to interest rate risk by selecting funds with less leverage and are large in size. High debt funds benefit more during periods of low interest but this may be offset when there is a corresponding increase in long term interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a new method for measuring market risk called downside accounting beta (DAB). To test the validity of DAB the method is applied to the financial data for 14 food companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during a 6-year period. DAB calculates how changes in the profitability of the whole sector affects the profitability of a given company. The paper concludes that when calculating DAB using Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) there is a positive correlation with market betas. The practical implication of this research is that investors, owners and managers can use DAB to calculate the systematic risk of companies not listed on stock markets and consequently to identify the levels of risk associated with companies within the sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers a wealth heterogeneous multi-agent (MA) financial pricing CCAPM model. It is based on the following observations: (a) A distinction between what agents are willing to pay for consumption and what they actually pay. The former is a function of a number of factors including the agent’s wealth and risk preferences and the latter is a function of all other agents’ aggregate consumption or equivalently, their wealth committed to consumption. (b) Unlike traditional pricing models that define a representative agent underlying the pricing model, this paper assumes that each agent is in fact ‘Cournot-gaming’ a market defined by all other agents. This results in a decomposition of ann-agents game intongames of two agents, one a specific agent and the other a synthetic agent (a proxy for all other agents), on the basis of which an equilibrium consumption price solution is defined. The paper’s essential results are twofold. First, a Martingale pricing model is defined for each individual agent expressing the consumer willingness to pay (his utility price) and the market price—the price that all agents pay for consumption. In this sense, price is unique defined by each agent’s ‘Cournot game’ Agents’ consumption are then adjusted accordingly to meet the market price. Second, the pricing model defined is shown to account for agents wealth distribution pointing out that all agents valuations are a function of their and others’ wealth, the information they have about each other and other factors which are discussed in the text. When an agent has no wealth or cannot affect the market price of consumption, then this pricing model is reduced to the standard CCAPM model while any agent with an appreciable wealth compared to other agents, is shown to value returns (and thus future consumption) less than wealth-poor agents. As a result, this paper will argue that even in a financial market with an infinite number of agents, if there are some agents that are large enough to affect the market price by their decisions, such agents have an arbitrage advantage over the poorer agents. The financial CCAPM MA pricing model has a number of implications, some of which are considered in this paper. Finally, some simple examples are considered to highlight the applicability of this paper to specific financial issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this work is to examine the influence of mutual fund flows on market timing models, thus providing unbiased timing coefficients. However, as this control is motivated by the existing relationship between mutual fund flows and market returns, we first analyse this relationship, considering previous and concurrent market returns. However, unlike existing studies, we do not consider future returns, since investors do not observe them when making investment decisions. Thus, we feel it is more appropriate to consider expected market returns. We construct the expected market returns by running an AR model and considering the available public information about the macro-economy. The relationship is analysed under different conditions, considering a variety of different mutual fund flow measures, and considering (or not) the sensitivity of mutual fund flows to positive and negative market returns. We also propose different controls for the traditional timing models, and we further analyse the reverse-causality problem. The study demonstrates, for a sample of equity mutual funds registered for sale in the USA, that the poor market timing performance found in this and other prior studies can be completely attributed to the perverse effect of the fund managers’ liquidity service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops and estimates an explicit-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model in an endeavor to uncover (a) the systematic risk properties of returns to agricultural assets, (b) the relationship between agricultural returns and returns on comparable-risk nonagricultural assets, and (c) the possible relevance of agriculture-related risks in general capital markets. The article concludes that: (a) farmer-held assets have exhibited significant systematic/ factor risk over the 1963-82 estimation interval, but U.S. farmland has not exhibited such risk; (b) a grain-price index has been a priced factor in general capital markets; and (c) average returns on farmer-held assets have been significantly lower; and average returns on U.S. farmland significantly higher, than those on comparable-risk nonagricultural assets.

Capital Asset Pricing, as one of the basic theories in finance and investment area, develop a model for estimation of expected rate of return and equity cost of capital. This model has many applications in the field of finance. One of anomalies in the Capital Asset Pricing Model is The Value Premium that its proponents believe this risk premium is compensation for a risk not mentioned in original model. Researchers (such as fama & french) believe that if we ignore the value premium, the expected rate of return estimated by CAPM would be biased. This research is going to evaluate The Value Premium in Tehran Stock Exchange and its role in asset pricing.

We present a model in a competitive market where traders choose between a small and a large firm to acquire costly private information, but they also obtain free public information by observing equilibrium share prices. Our major finding is the existence of a noisy rational expectation competitive equilibrium, in which there are more informed traders of the large firm than those of the small firm. As a result, share prices of the large firm are more informative than those of the small firm. Our empirical study supports the analytical results. By using a bivariate vector autoregressive regression, we are able to conduct a variance decomposition of share prices for different size portfolios. We find that prices of large-size portfolios are more informative because non-value-related price shocks are less important in driving price changes of large-size portfolios than in the case of small-size portfolios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New perspectives on consumption-based asset pricing models have recently been argued to provide powerful insights for explaining the cross-sectional variation of expected returns. In this paper, we employ both Spanish and U.S. capital markets data to present further evidence on these new approaches. Relative to previous papers, we are able to compare among alternative model specifications considering the same time period and testing assets. We discuss different versions of the consumption asset pricing model, including preferences with non-separable durable and non-durable consumption, and different frequencies in data, considering the moment at which consumption is measured and including ultimate consumption risk. The results show the relevance of both durable and non-durable long-run consumption risk factors in explaining the Spanish stock market returns. The importance of long-run risk factors is also confirmed with U.S. data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting default risk is important for firms and banks to operate successfully. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so-called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to predict the default risk of German firms. Our analysis is based on the Creditreform database. In all tests performed in this paper the nonlinear model classified by SVM exceeds the benchmark logit model, based on the same predictors, in terms of the performance metric, AR. The empirical evidence is in favor of the SVM for classification, especially in the linear non-separable case. The sensitivity investigation and a corresponding visualization tool reveal that the classifying ability of SVM appears to be superior over a wide range of SVM parameters. In terms of the empirical results obtained by SVM, the eight most important predictors related to bankruptcy for these German firms belong to the ratios of activity, profitability, liquidity, leverage and the percentage of incremental inventories. Some of the financial ratios selected by the SVM model are new because they have a strong nonlinear dependence on the default risk but a weak linear dependence that therefore cannot be captured by the usual linear models such as the DA and logit models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the size effect in the German stock market and intends to address several unanswered issues on this widely known anomaly. Unlike recent evidence of a reversal of the size anomaly this study documents a conditional relation between size and returns. I also detect strong momentum across size portfolios. The results indicate that the marginal effect of firm size on stock returns is conditional on the firm's past performance. I use an instrumental variable estimation to address Berk's critique of a simultaneity bias in prior studies on the small firm effect and to investigate the economic rationale behind firm size as an explanatory variable for the variation in stock returns. The analysis in this paper indicates that firm size captures firm characteristic components in stock returns and that this regularity cannot be explained by differences in systematic risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper derives a simple theoretical relationship between the degree of loss aversion, the concavity/convexity of the value function, and the equilibrium market price of risk. We show that while the degree of loss aversion is key in determining the market price of risk, the convexity/concavity of the value function is much less important in this respect. The theoretical relationship obtained is tested empirically by using international data from 16 different countries during over 100 years, as documented by Dimson et al. [Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns, 2002 (Princeton University Press)]. The empirical data yield an estimate of λ=2.3 for the loss aversion index. This value is in striking agreement with estimates obtained in the very different methodology of laboratory experiments of individual decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the asymmetric risk-return relationship in a time-varying beta CAPM. A state space model is established and estimated by the Adaptive Least Squares with Kalman foundations proposed by McCulloch. Using S&P 500 daily data from 1987:11-2003:12, we find a positive risk-return relationship in the up market (positive market excess returns) and a negative relationship in the down market (negative market excess returns). This supports the argument of Pettengill et al., who use a constant beta model. However, our model outperforms theirs by eliminating the unexplained returns and improving the accuracy of the estimated risk price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an approach to the estimation of the parameters of stochastic discount factor (SDF) models which is based on the idea that the next period joint distribution of the variables in a SDF and asset returns can be well approximated by their joint historical distribution. The estimates of the SDF parameters may therefore be found as the values of the parameters at which the mean of the historical distribution of the product of the SDF with an asset return equals one. Each time period, the estimates are updated using the most recent periods of data and hence can change over time. This method can be viewed as an alternative to the approaches that specify a particular functional form relating the SDF parameters to proxies for the state of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that asset pricing models of return with risk factors that entail either shares or dividends are logically circular simultaneities and thus are fallacious, meaningless, non-interpretable, indeterminate and not valid when tested and estimated by scientific statistical methods. This extends the findings for such models with risk factors that entail price. We also show that stock-split events are not a counter-example. Further we demonstrate that shares-, dividends- and price-entailing asset pricing simultaneities conform to three phases: events, individual risk factors and multifactor return models, and these simultaneities reflect patterns that have a common source which suggests a grand design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the dynamics of an explicit random process of prices and price expectations of finitely many assets in an economy with overlapping generations of heterogeneous consumers. They maximize expected utility with respect to subjective transition probabilities defined by Markov kernels which describe the forecasting behavior of agents. Given such forecasting rules (predictors) and an exogenous process of dividends, the evolution of equilibrium asset prices and expectations is described by a random dynamical system in the sense of. The paper investigates the long-run behavior (stationary solutions) by proving the existence and stability of random fixed points for mean-variance preferences under various predictors, including unbiased predictions, and adaptive, as well as OLS forecasting. An explicit characterization of rational expectations solutions is given, providing a full dynamic characterization of asset price processes for the classical CAPM in the case of stationary OLG economies. Numerical simulations are used to compare the performance of the different predictors under an AR(1) dividend process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically analyzes and compares return data from developed and emerging market data based on the Fama French five-factor model and compares it to previous results from the Fama French three-factor model by Kostin, Runge and Adams (2021). It researches whether the addition of the profitability and investment pattern factors show superior results in the assessment of emerging markets during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to developed markets. We use panel data covering eight indices of developed and emerging countries as well as a selection of eight companies from these markets, covering a period from 2000 to 2020. Our findings suggest that emerging markets do not generally outperform developed markets. The results underscore the need to reconsider the assumption that adding more factors to regression models automatically yields results that are more reliable. Our study contributes to the extant literature by broadening this research area. It is the first study to compare the performance of the Fama French three-factor model and the Fama French five-factor model in the cost of equity calculation for developed and emerging countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and other crisis events of the past two decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops and estimates an explicit-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model in an endeavor to uncover (a) the systematic risk properties of returns to agricultural assets, (b) the relationship between agricultural returns and returns on comparable-risk nonagricultural assets, and (c) the possible relevance of agriculture-related risks in general capital markets. The article concludes that: (a) farmer-held assets have exhibited significant systematic/factor risk over the 1963-82 estimation interval, but U.S. farmland has not exhibited such risk; (b) a grain-price index has been a priced factor in general capital markets; and (c) average returns on farmer-held assets have been significantly lower, and average returns on U.S. farmland significantly higher, than those on comparable-risk nonagricultural assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider an economy in which a set of agents own productive assets which provide commodity dividend streams, and the agents also receive individual commodity income streams, over a finite time horizon. The agents can buy and sell the commodity at a certain spot price and buy and sell their shares of the productive assets. The proceeds can be invested in financial assets whose prices are modelled as semimartingales. Each agent's objective is to choose a commodity consumption process and to manage his portfolio so as to maximize the expected utility of his consumption, subject to having nonnegative wealth at the terminal time. We derive the optimal agent consumption and investment decision processes when the prices of the productive assets and commodity spot prices are specified. We prove the existence and uniqueness of an "equilibrium" commodity spot price process and productive asset prices. When the agents solve their individual optimization problems using the equilibrium prices, all of the commodity is exactly consumed as it is received, all of the productive assets are exactly owned and the financial markets are in zero net supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Idiosyncratic security risks are modelled as following a joint spherical distribution characterized by a mean vector and a generalized covariance matrix. Skewness is generated by a single factor for the whole economy, but upon which different securities have different loadings. This results in three-fund separation--two funds to span the spherical risk and one more fund to span the additional skewness risk. A three-parameter normative portfolio analysis that allows short sales restrictions is developed. In addition, a three-parameter capital asset pricing model is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]