Search

Scenario analysis combined with system and market modelling is a well-established method to evaluate technological and societal developments and their impacts on future energy pathways. This paper presents a process-oriented method for developing consistent energy scenarios using multiple energy system models. Its added value is that the developed energy scenarios are consistent in a multi-model environment and practicable for a broader target group from scientists to practitioners. The scenarios consist of comprehensive storylines and systematically defined quantitative parameters. Following a step-by-step process, a condensed set of overlapping descriptors is generated and used to define the scenarios in a consistent parameter matrix. The set of descriptors allow consistent and comparable outputs independent of model-specific characteristics. The corresponding quantitative parameters can be used by diverse energy system tools. Using multiple models, a team of researchers can explore questions from differing points of view. In an example study, we apply the method to develop scenarios in the context of a cellular energy system. This approach enables the development of scenarios that provide a consistent basis for both stakeholder discourse and multi-model system analysis.

Background The authors, as internists, registered significant difference in the long lasting actions of surgical and chemical (atropine treatment) vagotomy in patients with peptic ulcer during second half of the last century (efficency, gastric acid secretion, gastrointestinal side effects, briefly benefical and harmful actions were examined). Aims 1. Since the authors participated in the establishing of human clinical pharmacology in this field, they wanted to know more and more facts of the acute and chronic effects of surgical and chemical (atropine treatment) on the gastrointestinal mucosal biochemisms and their actions altered by bioactive compounds and scavengers regarding the development of gastric mucosal damage and protection. Methods The observations were carried out in animals under various experimental conditions (in intact, pylorus-ligated rats, in different experimental ulcer models, together with application of various mucosal protecting compounds) without and with surgical vagotomy and chemical vagotomy produced by atropine treatment. Results 1. No changes were obtained in the cellular energy systems (ATP, ADP, AMP, cAMP, "adenylate pool", "energy charge" [(ATP+0.5 ADP)/ (ATP+ADP+AMP)] of stomach (glandular part, forestomach) in pylorus ligated rats after surgical vagotomy in contrast to those produced by only chemical vagotomy; 2. The effects of the gastric mucosal protective compounds [atropine, cimetidine, prostaglandins, scavengers (like vitamin A, β-carotene), capsaicin] disappeared after surgical vagotomy; 3. The extents of different chemical agents induced mucosal damaging effects were enhanced by surgical vagotomy and was not altered by chemical vagotomy; 4. The existence of feedback mechanisms of pharmacological (cellular and intracellular) regulatory mechanisms between the membrane-bound ATPdependent energy systems exists in the gastric mucosa of intact animals, and after chemical vagotomy, but not after surgical vagotomy. Conclusions 1. Increased vagal nerve activity takes place in the gastric mucosal damage; 2 both surgical and chemical vagotomy result mucosal protective affect on the gastric mucosal in different damaging experimental models; 3. The capsaicin-induced gastric mucosal damage depends on the applied doses, presence of anatomically intact vagal nerve (but independent from the chemical vagotomy), 4. The central and pheripheral neural regulations differ during gastric mucosal damage and protection induced by drugs, bioactive compounds, scavengers.

Accelerated local deployments of renewable energy sources and energy storage units, as well as increased overall flexibility in local demand and supply through active user involvement and smart energy solutions, open up new opportunities (e.g., self-sufficiency and CO2 neutrality through local renewables) and yet pose new challenges (e.g., how to maintain the security of supply and get the best yield) to market players in the lower parts of the energy system (including prosumers, energy communities, aggregators, and distribution system operators (DSOs)). One way to cope with the challenges requires "logical" reorganization of the energy system bottom-up as a number of nested (maximally) self-sufficient and interacting cells with their own local (i.e. within a cell) energy management and trading capabilities. This change necessitates effective IT-based solutions. Towards this goal, we propose a unified Flexibility Modeling, Management, and Trading System (FMTS) that generalizes flexibility modeling, management, and intra-cell trading in such cellular energy systems. Our system offers different flexibility provisioning options (Machine Learning based, and Model Predictive Control based), activation mechanisms (indirect and direct device-control), and trading schemes (e.g. flexibility contracts, market-based trading) and suits different cellular system use-cases. In this paper, we introduce the FMTS, overview its core functionality and components, and explain how it practically manages, prices, and trades flexibility from a diverse variety of loads. We then introduce the real-world FMTS instances developed in the GOFLEX project1 and present experimental results that demonstrate significantly increased flexibility capacities, user gains, and balance between demand and supply when an FMTS instance is used in the simulated cellular energy system setting.