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The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ∘C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

Major drivers of gains or losses in soil organic carbon (SOC) include land management, land-use change, and climate change. Thousands of original studies have focused on these drivers of SOC change and are now compiled in a growing number of meta-analyses. To critically assess the research efforts in this domain, we retrieved and characterized 192 meta-analyses of SOC stocks or concentrations. These meta-analyses comprise more than 13,200 original studies conducted from 1910 to 2020 in 150 countries. First, we show that, despite a growing number of studies over time, the geographical coverage of studies is limited. For example, the effect of land management, land-use change, and climate change on SOC has been only occasionally studied in North and Central Africa, and in the Middle East and Central Asia. Second, the meta-analyses investigated a limited number of land management practices, mostly mineral fertilization, organic amendments, and tillage. Third, the meta-analyses demonstrated relatively low quality and transparency. Lastly, we discuss the mismatch between the increasing number of studies and the need for more local, reusable, and diversified knowledge on how to preserve high SOC stocks or restore depleted SOC stocks.

International audience; The Senegalese delta, like many other agricultural territories in the Global South, is experiencing changes in agricultural trajectory. These changes are related to the promotion of competitive and performance-based forms of agriculture. In a context of tense relations between farmers and herders, the quest for equitable access to land, which is a guarantee of peace, stability, and balanced economic and social development, is being called into question by the arrival of capital investors and new actors that are highly supported by the State. This situation raises questions about two important issues: (i) the challenge of the sustainable management of natural resources, especially land; and (ii) the socio-political stakes related to the fact that land is a sensitive resource, both politically and socially. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that dominant discourses are being built around representation of unused and available lands. The aim of this article is to address this controversy by questioning land-use planning processes and tools and underlining the reality depicted. We demonstrate that discourses around land availability are built upon sectoral visions that tend to overshadow the realities of land use. Indeed, livestock farming and particularly its mobile form (i.e., pastoralism) is rendered invisible by not being considered in the majority of land-use and agricultural policies. Through a participatory survey of campsites, we show that gathering basic information on livestock farming should not to be reduced to technical issues. Beyond that, we acknowledge that these land-use issues are rooted in sector-based and neoliberal visions of development. We conclude by discussing the importance of effective decentralization in financial and technical means and the development of systemic proficiency that goes beyond normative sectoral views to acknowledge and act on territorial development.

This paper analyses the policy changes occurring in the forest and palm oil sectors of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, through the lens of the transformational change concept. The aim is to first examine whether Sabah is trans- forming and, if so, to identify the determinants enabling or hindering the change. To determine if Sabah is transforming, we used two criteria: - (i) an ambitious change in the policy framework, that promotes forest conservation and sustainable use, and is moving away from business-as-usual activities; and (ii) the level of implementation of the policies that we identified as supporting transformational change. We found that Sabah very likely did intend to transform. We made this conclusion based on comparing changes in policies occurring in Sabah, and we decided if it is ambitious by primarily comparing Sabah's policies with other Malaysian states, the federal government, and internationally. We showed that: (i) Sabah decided to use voluntary international certification standards (private market instruments) like FSC and RSPO, while the other Malaysian states did not; (ii) they decided to protect more forest compared to national and international targets; and (iii) Sabah is an early mover as the state is one of the first in the world to adopt the RSPO Jurisdictional Approach. But intention needs to be followed by implementation, and this is where the state falls short. The policies in Sabah were not fully implemented because of the patronage system where the more powerful actors used their power to continue with business-as-usual activities, there is frequent political turnover in Sabah, and the state faced difficulty in meeting international standards. Our research shows that local leadership and a local transformational change coalition (civil society actively working in Sabah) mainly prompted the transformational change, although the promises of economic gains and better reputation also played a role. We conclude by emphasising the change must be made more compelling for political leaders, as part of a broader institutional structure, not only through the narrow focus on reducing deforestation but through the development of a more sustainable and equitable national economy, and that consumer countries should play a role in reducing pressures on forest by providing incentives to a state that manages its natural resources sustainably.

International audience; Le changement d’usage des terres et l’impact de l’anthropisation sur les milieux forestiers tropicaux sont en progression constante sous les tropiques et en Guyane française. Ces changements sont souvent accompagnés de défriches mécanisées qui favorisent la compaction du sol. Notre objectif était de suivre l’évolution de la compaction du sol d’une parcelle de forêt naturelle exploitée (7 ha) soumise à une défriche mécanisée alternative (itinéraire « chop and mulch », couvert herbacé de Stylosanthes guianensis), puis replantée de quatre espèces forestières commerciales. Sur cet espace présentant finalement diverses couvertures de sol (sol nu, mulch, couvert herbacé), nous avons mesuré la densité apparente jusqu’à 30 cm de profondeur et effectué le test d’infiltration simplifié de Beerkan lors de trois campagnes : avant, juste après et neuf mois après la défriche. Avant la défriche, les sols avaient une très bonne capacité d’infiltration (111 cm/h), étaient peu denses à 0-5 cm de profondeur (0,88) et denses à 5-30 cm (1,19 à 1,40). Juste après la défriche, les sols avaient une capacité d’infiltration très réduite (2 cm/h) et leur couche de surface avait été fortement compactée (1,28) contrairement aux couches plus profondes (1,41 à 1,49). Neuf mois après la défriche, les sols avaient retrouvé une très bonne capacité d’infiltration (149 cm/h), particulièrement sous le couvert herbacé de S. guianensis, et leur couche de surface avait retrouvé une densité proche de l’état initial (1,01), contrairement aux couches plus profondes (1,46 à 1,58). De futures recherches sont nécessaires pour expliquer le retour rapide à l’état initial de la couche de surface et estimer la contribution relative de la macrofaune du sol, des racines et de la fissuration.

Différents mécanismes d’intervention sont proposés pour transformer les paysages agricoles de manière à ce qu’ils remplissent de multiples fonctions, compatibles avec les objectifs du développement durable. Dans le cas de l’atténuation et de l’adaptation au changement climatique, des politiques incitatives et des mécanismes de rémunération des acteurs locaux sont promues dans le cadre des initiatives REDD+. Sur le terrain, ces interventions visent à assurer simultanément la fourniture de services écosystémiques et le maintien, voire l’amélioration, des moyens d’existence locaux. Dans cet article, nous explorons le rôle que peut jouer l’évaluation participative dans la mise en œuvre de paiements pour services environnementaux au sein de communautés rurales d’Indonésie, du Laos, du Vietnam et de Chine. Engagées dans un processus d’intégration rapide à l’économie de marché, ces communautés ont transformé leurs systèmes d’abattis-brûlis traditionnels pour s’orienter vers différentes voies d’intensification agricole au cours des dernières années. L’évaluation positive ou négative de ces évolutions fait nécessairement l’objet de jugements de valeur dans les choix effectués entre différentes options possibles. La formulation de ces options en termes de services écosystémiques rendus permet de comparer les trajectoires paysagères et leur impact sur les conditions de vie locales. Sur ces bases, les communautés peuvent explorer des scénarios de transformation de leurs pratiques agricoles, négocier des compromis entre services écosystémiques et identifier les « gagnants » et les « perdants » potentiels. Ces simulations ont montré l’importance du calendrier de mise en place des programmes REDD+ par rapport aux transformations agraires en cours. Elles pointent le risque de s’éloigner des ambitions initiales d’un impact sur les émissions de carbone pour devenir un instrument supplémentaire de développement durable.

In the midst of global change uncertainties, Indonesian spatial planning authorities are developing 20-year strategies. However, the lack of collaborative engagement of stakeholders and unclear methodology around using futures studies in addressing land management undermine such plans and affect environmental governance. A crucial question is how to link a future-oriented process with governance transformation processes, particularly related to land-use planning and management. To address this issue, we used a co-elaborative scenario-building approach, referred to as participatory prospective analysis (PPA), to facilitate the creation of local multistakeholder platforms considering future-oriented perspectives. The PPA design combines equally the knowledge of local communities, technical experts and decision-makers, and was applied in a series of sequential multistakeholder workshops in two regencies in Indonesia, followed by public consultations on the main results. In both regencies, participants agreed on a common topic related to spatial planning in their jurisdiction to be explored with a 20-year time horizon. They reached consensus on relevant variables, analyzed their dependence/influence, and developed several plausible yet contrasting scenarios for land management and road maps with guidelines for the implementation of desired outcomes. The PPA approach stimulated stakeholder engagement and ensured that more local voices were not only heard but also duly included in the process. It allowed participants to consider strategies that would otherwise have been less readily accepted by their respective organizations. It showed that it is possible to improve existing spatial planning processes in Indonesia by integrating tools for a more inclusive and long-term future-oriented collaborative approach.

Land use change results from top-down drivers, such as policies, trade, and migration. Land use change may also result from community-based responses. In Mexico, rural communities govern most of the country's forests. This study aimed to assess how socio-economic and biophysical factors affected the landscape trajectories of rural communities in southern Mexico. It also aimed at evaluating the role of communities in landscape change. Land use change of 63 rural communities was analyzed for the years 1987 and 2017. Four land uses were distinguished: forest, shrubland, agriculture, and bare soil. Five groups of communities were identified according to their socio-economic and biophysical factors. Two groups located in areas with high slopes and elevated marginalization index values showed deforestation patterns. Two other groups, consisting of more than half of the municipalities assessed, showed reforestation trends. The final group did not reveal major changes in land use. Two municipalities with reforestation trends were selected for an in-depth analysis of how community-based responses impacted natural resource management and conservation. Through local assemblies, the population voted for regulations that increased the forest area and reduced the bare soil. There was no evidence that these regulations affected croplands. These results show how a combination of socio-economic and biophysical factors can affect landscape change, but it also shows the often overlooked role of communities as a relevant bottom-up driver of change.

International audience; Beyond reducing deforestation, the control of forest degradation, the promotion of forest restoration, and the improvement of agricultural practices in the Brazilian Amazon are becoming increasingly important for sustainable development. To enable farmers and authorities to organize their landscapes and optimize both agricultural practices and the provision of ecosystem services, mapping land suitability is essential, but it is lacking in the region. In this paper, we present a method for mapping land suitability at a fine scale (30-m pixels), adapted to the needs of farmers and municipalities, to not only optimize agricultural production but also the ecosystem services provided by forests. We used topographic data from the Brazilian municipality of Paragominas to produce four maps, one each of soil texture, slope, floodplains, and hydrography, that we then combined into a single land suitability map. This map has been incorporated into a spatial database, which also contains information on land use, remoteness, and land tenure. We performed spatial analyses to measure the process of land use change, and to define indicators that enable local stakeholders to organize landscape restoration. We highlight an organic link between agricultural intensification and forest restoration, and provide a spatial tool for landscape design, assessment, and monitoring.

In Latin America, the cultivation of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) plays a critical role in rural livelihoods, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable development. Over the last 20 years, coffee farms and landscapes across the region have undergone rapid and profound biophysical changes in response to low coffee prices, changing climatic conditions, severe plant pathogen outbreaks, and other drivers. Although these biophysical transformations are pervasive and affect millions of rural livelihoods, there is limited information on the types, location, and extent of landscape changes and their socioeconomic and ecological consequences. Here we review the state of knowledge on the ongoing biophysical changes in coffee-growing regions, explore the potential socioeconomic and ecological impacts of these changes, and highlight key research gaps. We identify seven major land-use trends which are affecting the sustainability of coffee-growing regions across Latin America in different ways. These trends include (1) the widespread shift to disease-resistant cultivars, (2) the conventional intensification of coffee management with greater planting densities, greater use of agrochemicals and less shade, (3) the conversion of coffee to other agricultural land uses, (4) the introduction of Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) into areas not previously cultivated with coffee, (5) the expansion of coffee into forested areas, (6) the urbanization of coffee landscapes, and (7) the increase in the area of coffee produced under voluntary sustainability standards. Our review highlights the incomplete and scattered information on the drivers, patterns, and outcomes of biophysical changes in coffee landscapes, and lays out a detailed research agenda to address these research gaps and elucidate the effects of different landscape trajectories on rural livelihoods, biodiversity conservation, and other aspects of sustainable development. A better understanding of the drivers, patterns, and consequences of changes in coffee landscapes is vital for informing the design of policies, programs, and incentives for sustainable coffee production. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-021-00712-0.

International audience; The ForestAtRisk Python package can be used to model the spatial probability of deforesta-8tion and predict future forest cover in the tropics. The spatial data used to model deforestation9comes from georeferenced raster files which can be very large (several gigabytes). The func-10tions available in theForestAtRiskpackage process large rasters by blocks of data, making11calculations fast and efficient. This allows deforestation to be modeled over large geographic 12 areas (eg. at the country scale) and at high resolution (eg.30 m). TheForestAtRisk13package offers the possibility of using a logistic regression with auto-correlated spatial random14effects to model the deforestation process. The spatial random effects make it possible to15structure the residual spatial variability in the deforestation process which is not explained by16the variables of the model and is often very large. In addition to providing new features, the17ForestAtRiskPython package is open source (GPLv3 license), cross-platform and scriptable18(via Python), user-friendly (functions provided with full documentation and examples), and19easily extendable (with statistical models for example). The Python package ForestAtRisk20was recently used to model deforestation and predict future forest cover by 2100 across the humid tropics

Environmental Research Letters, 15 (12), ISSN:1748-9326, ISSN:1748-9318

Em zonas de colonização antiga da Amazônia, como o Nordeste do Pará, os sistemas de produção agrícola, baseados principalmente em cultivos anuais em sistemas de corte e queima, enfrentam desafios para se manter. Nesse contexto, atores estão promovendo Sistemas Agroflorestais (SAF) para viabilizar a restauração das áreas degradadas, geração de renda e soberania alimentar das famílias agrícolas. Essa transição requer a transformação de todo o sistema agrário. Neste artigo objetiva-se identificar os eventos históricos e as mudanças nos fatores externos ao sistema de produção que condicionaram as transformações para a introdução/modificação dos SAF em Irituia –PA. Utilizou-se a abordagem sistêmica, entrevistas históricas, questionários, análise documental e análise de paisagem. Os incentivos públicos locais foram os principais precursores da consolidação dos SAFs dentro dos sistemas de produção familiares. Com essas iniciativas, que proporcionaram mudanças estruturais multiescalares, a trajetória dos sistemas de produção indica uma perspectiva diferenciada, com incremento de sustentabilidade.

Small reservoirs (SRs) are essential water storage infrastructures for rural populations of Sub-Saharan West Africa. In recent years, rapid population increase has resulted in unprecedented land use and land cover (LULC) changes. Our study documents the impacts of such changes on the water quality of SRs in Burkina Faso. Multi-temporal Landsat images were analyzed to determine LULC evolutions at various scales between 2002 and 2014. Population densities were calculated from downloaded 2014 population data. In situ water samples collected in 2004/5 and 2014 from selected SRs were analyzed for Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) loads, an integrative proxy for water quality. The expansion of crop and artificial areas at the expense of natural covers controlled LULC changes over the period. We found a very significant correlation between SPM loads and population densities calculated at a watershed scale. A general increase between the two sampling dates in the inorganic component of SPM loads, concomitant with a clear expansion of cropland areas at a local scale, was evidenced. Results of the study suggest that two complementary but independent indicators (i.e., LULC changes within 5-km buffer areas around SRs and demographic changes at watershed scale), relevantly reflected the nature and intensity of overall pressures exerted by humans on their environment, and locally on aquatic ecosystems. Recommendations related to the re-greening of peripheral areas around SRs in order to protect water bodies are suggested.

The conversion of native vegetation (NV) into agricultural land by clearing and tillage disrupts the soil structure, and depletes soil organic carbon (SOC) pool. Data on changes in SOC pools are needed to enhance scientific knowledge regarding the effects of land use and Conservation Agriculture (CA) on soil fertility, agronomic productivity, and soil C sink capacity. The objective of this study was to quantify changes in SOC fractions due to conversion of NV to agricultural land, and to assess the rate of recovery of SOC fractions and the resilience index of CA cropping systems under sub-tropical (Ponta Grossa/PR — PG) and tropical (Lucas do Rio Verde/MT — LRV) regions of Brazil.

Land degradation and regeneration are complex processes that greatly impact climate regulation, ecosystem service provision, and population well-being and require an urgent and appropriate response through land use planning and interventions. Spatially explicit land change models can greatly help decision makers, but traditional regression approaches fail to capture the nonlinearity and complex interactions of the underlying drivers. Our objective was to use a machine learning algorithm combined with high-resolution data sets to provide simultaneous and spatial forecasts of deforestation, land degradation, and regeneration for the next two decades. A 17,000-km(2) region in the south of Madagascar was taken as the study area. First, an empirical analysis of drivers of change was conducted, and then, an ensemble model was calibrated to predict and map potential changes based on 12 potential explanatory variables. These potential change maps were used to draw three scenarios of land change while considering past trends in intensity of change and expert knowledge. Historical observations displayed clear patterns of land degradation and relatively low regeneration. Amongst the 12 potential explanatory variables, distance to forest edge and elevation were the most important for the three land transitions studied. Random forest showed slightly better prediction ability compared with maximum entropy and generalized linear model. Business-as-usual scenarios highlighted the large areas under deforestation and degradation threat, and an alternative scenario enabled the location of suitable areas for regeneration. The approach developed herein and the spatial outputs provided can help stakeholders target their interventions or develop large-scale sustainable land management strategies.

International audience; The recent decoupling of deforestation and soybean production has raised optimistic expectations towards enhanced land use sustainability in the SouthEastern Amazon agricultural frontier. Nonetheless , assessing land use sustainability implies not only the consideration of how agricultural activities affect natural ecosystems but also how they impact on society and how society can cope with them. We review some of the forthcoming challenges that the agricultural sector should address to confirm its significant progress towards land use sustainability. Firstly, we assess the recent efforts to adopt environmentally friendly practices with regard to the ongoing intensification process mainly based on double cropping systems. Secondly, while rapid agricultural development has brought major social advances, we evidence a recent trend towards a decoupling of soy production and the Human Development Index at municipality level. We then put this result into perspective considering that the trend towards agricultural intensification based on the use of large amounts of agrochemicals could lead to major health concerns which are still too rarely considered. Finally, we discuss how the recent efficient policies to contain deforestation in the Amazon can cause indirect land use changes in the Brazilian Cerrados and in African Savannas, thus potentially leading to an "illusion of preservation" at global scale. We conclude that new indicators involving social sciences are necessary to better address the complexity of land use sustainability on the still very dynamic agricultural frontier in the SouthEastern Amazon.

International audience; Agricultural landscapes of the Southern Brazilian Amazon are the result of eighty years of governmental policies to install a powerful agricultural sector. Yet, this rapid expansion raised important environmental considerations especially with regard to deforestation. The agricultural frontier is thus now facing a huge challenge: to combine socio-economic development with environmental conservation in a context of frontier expansion. Based on a conceptual model of the agricultural frontier, we review historical changes in environmental and development policies in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso and emphasize their ambivalent trend to both encourage and control the progress of the frontier. We then extend this model with an integration stage where environmental governance and economic development evolve from competing to complementary concepts. At this stage, the efforts to slow down deforestation are accompanied with programs to promote new agricultural practices and support industrialization. Finally, we put into perspective this recent evolution with regards to the underlying reasons for changing the agricultural model, thus considering the agricultural frontier to be at a tipping point where first positive results need to be confirmed in spite of an unstable economic and political situation.