1. Risk of Dengue for Tourists and Teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil.
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van Panhuis, Willem G., Hyun, Sangwon, Blaney, Kayleigh, Marques Jr, Ernesto T. A., Coelho, Giovanini E., Siqueira Jr, João Bosco, Tibshirani, Ryan, da Silva Jr, Jarbas B., and Rosenfeld, Roni
- Subjects
DENGUE hemorrhagic fever ,DENGUE ,INTERNATIONAL visitors ,TOURISTS - Abstract
Background: This year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001–2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expected symptomatic dengue cases ranged from 26 (PR, 10
th –100th percentile: 5–334 cases) to 59 (EB, 95% credible interval: 30–77 cases) among foreign tourists but none are expected among teams. These numbers will highly depend on actual travel schedules and dengue immunity among visitors. Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively). Conclusion/Significance: The risk of dengue among tourists during the World Cup is expected to be small due to immunity among the Brazil host population provided by last year's epidemic with the same DENV serotypes. Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events. Author Summary: This year the 2014 FIFA World Cup will be hosted by Brazil, a country that has reported a higher number of dengue cases annually than any other country worldwide over the last decade. About 600,000 foreign tourists are expected and may be at risk for this disease. Games will be played in 12 different cities across the country and teams will stay in 27 different basecamp locations. We used weekly dengue surveillance data from previous years (2001–2013) and the first 19 weeks in 2014 to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup in each location and found that the expected incidence rates were relatively low. We also found interesting differences across estimation methods. Based on current ticket allocations, we expect that between 26 and 59 dengue cases will occur among tourists and none among teams. Quantitative risk estimates based on historical data should be made routinely for mass gathering events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2014
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