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We developed several measures to analyze the global financial cycle employing dynamic factor models and data for 25 advanced and emerging countries spanning 1980 to 2019. These measures were assessed using the similarity and synchronicity metrics proposed by Mink et al. (Oxford Economic Papers 64, 217–236, 2012). The findings indicate a strong similarity and synchronization of global cycles in asset prices and capital flows, particularly evident during crisis episodes. Furthermore, we observe significant co‐movement between our financial cycle measures and two literature‐based measures that utilize top‐down and bottom‐up approaches. However, the VIX index shows a lower level of co‐movement with our global financial cycle measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze how reversals of several types of capital flows impact currency crises in emerging market and developing economies. Estimates of logit models show that reversals of (equity and debt) portfolio flows significantly increase the likelihood of currency crises in emerging market economies. In developing economies, reversals of portfolio debt flows and banking flows have a significant positive impact on currency crises. Finally, our results suggest that countries with mature financial systems and fixed exchange rate regimes are less likely to experience a currency crisis after a capital flow shock. The mediating role of capital account liberalization varies by country type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a sample of 7,919 banks from 30 OECD countries over 1995–2019, we examine the impact of low interest rates on banks' net interest margins. Our results confirm a positive relationship between interest rates and interest margins, which is stronger in a low interest rate environment. In more concentrated markets, however, interest margins are less sensitive to the level of interest rates, as interest rate sensitivities of income and expense margins match. But our results also suggest that the effect of market concentration on the link between interest rates and interest margins is weaker when interest rates approach zero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]