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Objective: To end the AIDS epidemic by 2030, despite the increasing poverty and inequalities, policies should be designed to deal with population heterogeneity and environmental changes. Bottom-up designs, such as the Agent-Based Model (ABM), can model these features, dealing with such complexity. HIV/AIDS has a complex dynamic of structural factors, risk behaviors, biomedical characteristics and interventions. All embedded in unequal, stigmatized and heterogeneous social structure. To understand how ABMs can model this complexity, we performed a scoping review of HIV applications, highlighting their potentialities. Methods: We searched on PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus repositories following the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews. Our inclusion criteria were HIV/AIDS studies with an ABM application. We identified the main articles using a local co-citation analysis and categorized the overall literature aims, (sub)populations, regions, and if the papers declared the use of ODD protocol and limitations. Results: We found 154 articles. We identified eleven main papers, and discussed them using the overall category results. Most studies model Transmission Dynamics (37/154), about Men who have sex with Men (MSM) (41/154), or individuals living in the US or South Africa (84/154). Recent studies applied ABM to model PrEP interventions (17/154) and Racial Disparities (12/154). Only six papers declared the use of ODD Protocol (6/154), and 34/154 didn't mention the study limitations. Conclusions: While ABM is among the most sophisticated techniques available to model HIV/AIDS complexity. Their applications are still restricted to some realities. However, researchers are challenged to think about social structure due model characteristics, the inclusion of these features is still restricted to case-specific. Data and computational power availability can enhance this feature providing insightful results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, it is estimated that 37.6 million people are living with the HIV/AIDS virus worldwide, placing HIV/AIDS among the ten leading causes of death, mostly among low- and lower-middle-income countries. Despite the effective intervention in the prevention and treatment, this reduction did not occur equally among populations, subpopulations and geographic regions. This difference in the occurrence of the disease is associated with the social determinants of health (SDH), which could affect the transmission and maintenance of HIV. With the recognition of the importance of SDH in HIV transmission, the development of mathematical models that incorporate these determinants could increase the accuracy and robustness of the modeling. This article aims to propose a theoretical and conceptual way of including SDH in the mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS. The theoretical mathematical model with the Social Determinants of Health has been developed in stages. For the selection of SDH that were incorporated into the model, a narrative literature review was conducted. Secondly, we proposed an extended model in which the population (N) is divided into Susceptible (S), HIV-positive (I), Individual with AIDS (A) and individual under treatment (T). Each SDH had a different approach to embedding in the model. We performed a calibration and validation of the model. A total of 31 SDH were obtained in the review, divided into four groups: Individual Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Social Participation, and Health Services. In the end, four determinants were selected for incorporation into the model: Education, Poverty, Use of Drugs and Alcohol abuse, and Condoms Use. the section "Numerical simulation" to simulate the influence of the poverty rate on the AIDS incidence and mortality rates. We used a Brazilian dataset of new AIDS cases and deaths, which is publicly available. We calibrated the model using a multiobjective genetic algorithm for the years 2003 to 2019. To forecast from 2020 to 2035, we assumed two lines of poverty rate representing (i) a scenario of increasing and (ii) a scenario of decreasing. To avoid overfitting, we fixed some parameters and estimated the remaining. The equations presented with the chosen SDH exemplify some approaches that we can adopt when thinking about modeling social effects on the occurrence of HIV. The model was able to capture the influence of the employment/poverty on the HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality rates, evidencing the importance of SDOH in the occurrence of diseases. The recognition of the importance of including the SDH in the modeling and studies on HIV/AIDS is evident, due to its complexity and multicausality. Models that do not take into account in their structure, will probably miss a great part of the real trends, especially in periods, as the current on, of economic crisis and strong socioeconomic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated—an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage—evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4–31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12–34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10–25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15–31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The risk factors associated with canine visceral leishmaniosis (CVL) in Brazil are unclear and controversial. The objectives of this systematic review and meta-analysis were to identify the best evidence available in this field and to determine the gaps in existing knowledge. Literature searches were carried out using four databases, the reference lists within articles, and references provided by experts in the field. Theoretical discussions or separate and independent meta-analyses of p-values or of effect sizes were used to pool information about each variable. Thirty-six articles were selected for detailed review, including 31 cross-sectional, two ecological and three cohort studies. The variables showing significant association with CVL were short hair, purebred, peri-domestic restricted (as compared with domestic-restricted dogs), and presence of green areas adjacent to home. The occurrence of CVL was also associated with the presence of domestic fowl in the home environment, with free dogs (as compared with restrained dogs), with male gender and with dogs >1 or 2 years of age, although these associations were not statistically significant. Due to the small number of publications, consistent results could not be obtained concerning the role of other factors. Most studies did not describe the criteria of eligibility and the process of selection of participants in sufficient detail and employed only one diagnostic test as proof of infection. Few studies controlled for confounding variables. No statistical evidence of publication bias was detected, but a great deal of information contained in the primary articles was lost because the results were not adequately described. The results of this review contribute to a better understanding of CVL and should assist in optimizing the development and implementation of control policies. Continuous actions, prioritizing dogs at higher risk and areas with higher abundance of green vegetation, together with policies to promote responsible dog ownership are mandatory. Problems concerning study design and data analysis described in the present study need to be taken into consideration in future studies. These must follow clear procedures to select participants and utilize standardized, valid and reliable diagnostic methods. The development of multivariate models and the use of the STROBE statement for description of the results should also be encouraged. Further research should investigate the patterns identified and prioritize CVL-related factors that have not been fully recognized or elucidated. Finally, ecological and cohort studies of CVL and investigations in other countries of Latin America are urgently required. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Dengue is a reportable disease in Brazil; however, pregnancy has been included in the application form of the Brazilian notification information system only after 2006. To estimate the severity of maternal dengue infection, the available data that were compiled from January 2007 to December 2008 by the official surveillance information system of the city of Rio de Janeiro were reviewed. Methods and Principal Findings: During the study period, 151,604 cases of suspected dengue infection were reported. Five hundred sixty-one women in their reproductive age (15–49 years) presented with dengue infection; 99 (18.1%) pregnant and 447 (81.9%) non-pregnant women were analyzed. Dengue cases were categorized using the 1997 WHO classification system, and DHF/DSS were considered severe disease. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare maternal age, according to gestational period, and severity of disease. A chi-square test was utilized to evaluate the differences in the proportion of dengue severity between pregnant and non-pregnant women. Univariate analysis was performed to compare outcome variables (severe dengue and non-severe dengue) and explanatory variables (pregnancy, gestational age and trimester) using the Wald test. A multivariate analysis was performed to assess the independence of statistically significant variables in the univariate analysis. A p-value<0.05 was considered statistically significant. A higher percentage of severe dengue infection among pregnant women was found, p = 0.0001. Final analysis demonstrated that pregnant women are 3.4 times more prone to developing severe dengue (OR: 3.38; CI: 2.10–5.42). Mortality among pregnant women was superior to non-pregnant women. Conclusion: Pregnant women have an increased risk of developing severe dengue infection and dying of dengue. Author Summary: Dengue represents a major worldwide public health problem. According to the WHO, up to 50 million dengue infections occur each year. The occurrence of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever has increased in Brazil, in part due to the simultaneous circulation of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3. Although a primary infection with one serotype confers a partial or transient immunity against other serotypes, any subsequent infections harbor the risk of increased morbidity/mortality. Several case reports have been published regarding maternal and fetal outcomes from dengue infection, but it is still inconclusive if pregnancy is associated with severity. To estimate the severity of maternal dengue infection, available data that were compiled from 2007 to 2008 by the official surveillance information system of the city of Rio de Janeiro were reviewed. The cases of dengue were analyzed using the 1997 WHO classification. Pregnant women were 3.4 times more prone to developing severe dengue than non-pregnant women. Mortality among pregnant women was superior to non-pregnant women. The increased risk of severe outcomes in pregnant women merits further attention to effective public health and medical interventions that will aid in avoiding morbidity/fatalities within this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue is a reportable disease in Brazil; however, pregnancy has been included in the application form of the Brazilian notification information system only after 2006. To estimate the severity of maternal dengue infection, the available data that were compiled from January 2007 to December 2008 by the official surveillance information system of the city of Rio de Janeiro were reviewed. Methods and Principal Findings: During the study period, 151,604 cases of suspected dengue infection were reported. Five hundred sixty-one women in their reproductive age (15–49 years) presented with dengue infection; 99 (18.1%) pregnant and 447 (81.9%) non-pregnant women were analyzed. Dengue cases were categorized using the 1997 WHO classification system, and DHF/DSS were considered severe disease. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare maternal age, according to gestational period, and severity of disease. A chi-square test was utilized to evaluate the differences in the proportion of dengue severity between pregnant and non-pregnant women. Univariate analysis was performed to compare outcome variables (severe dengue and non-severe dengue) and explanatory variables (pregnancy, gestational age and trimester) using the Wald test. A multivariate analysis was performed to assess the independence of statistically significant variables in the univariate analysis. A p-value<0.05 was considered statistically significant. A higher percentage of severe dengue infection among pregnant women was found, p = 0.0001. Final analysis demonstrated that pregnant women are 3.4 times more prone to developing severe dengue (OR: 3.38; CI: 2.10–5.42). Mortality among pregnant women was superior to non-pregnant women. Conclusion: Pregnant women have an increased risk of developing severe dengue infection and dying of dengue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]