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Hanine Abbas,1– 3 Mazen Kurdi,1 Frank de Vries,2– 4 Hein AW van Onzenoort,2,5 Johanna HM Driessen,2– 4,6 Myriam Watfa,7 Rita Karam1,7,8 1Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Faculty of Sciences, Lebanese University, Beirut, Lebanon; 2Department of Clinical Pharmacy & Toxicology, Maastricht University Medical Centre+, Maastricht, the Netherlands; 3Cardiovascular Research Institute Maastricht (CARIM), Maastricht University Medical Center+, Maastricht, the Netherlands; 4Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht, the Netherlands; 5Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Amphia Hospital, Breda, the Netherlands; 6NUTRIM School for Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, the Netherlands; 7Quality Assurance of Pharmaceutical Products Department, Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon; 8Pharmacology Department, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Lebanese University, Beirut, LebanonCorrespondence: Rita KaramFaculty of Sciences, Lebanese University, Section 1, Beirut, LebanonTel +961 3 77 5061Email ritakmouawad@hotmail.comBackground: Poor adherence to antihypertensives is associated with negative outcome of the disease as well as loss of health-care resources. Addressing the epidemic of poor adherence requires identifying factors associated with this behaviour. The aim of this study is to describe adherence to antihypertensive medication among Lebanese hypertensive patients and to evaluate the association between socio-economic, patient- and conditions-related factors and non-adherence.Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out on adherence to antihypertensive medications covering all governorates of Lebanon. This study was conducted between February 2018 and January 2019 on a random sample of 1497 hypertensive patients. A face-to-face questionnaire was used to assess adherence to antihypertensive medication and its determinants according to the five World Health Organization (WHO) main categories. Logistic regression analysis was performed to test the adjusted association between the multiple exposure factors, and drug adherence data were collected by trained interviewers.Results: Adherence to antihypertensive medications was reported by 1253 (83.7%) of the patients. After multivariate analysis, patients who tried to control their stress level (OR =  0.77, 95% CI [0.38– 0.95]), those who had normal BP readings (OR =0.49, 95% CI [0.18– 0.97]), and those who believed in the effectiveness of their treatment (OR =  0.31, 95% CI [0.14– 0.76]) had a significantly lower chance to exhibit non-adherence to their treatment. However, older patients (OR= 1.87, 95% CI [1.23– 2.21]), divorced/separated patients (OR= 2.14, 95% CI [1.31– 5.48]), married (OR=1.96, 95% CI [1.27– 3.90]), widowed (OR=2.11, 95% CI [1.62– 6.50]), obese patients (OR = 1.76, 95% CI [1.21– 1.94]), and patients who smoked hookah and cigarettes (OR = 2.62, 95% CI [1.17– 6.76]) were more likely to exhibit non-adherence.Conclusion: Our study highlights the influence of factors such as old age, marital status, BMI and high level of emotional stress on non-adherence to medication in hypertensive patients. These determinants should be incorporated into adherence improving strategies.Keywords: non-adherence, antihypertensive medications, patient-related factors, condition-related factor, Lebanon

Spencer J Keene,1–3 Rachel E Jordan,1 Frits ME Franssen,3,4 Frank de Vries,2,5 James Martin,1 Alice Sitch,1,6 Alice Margaret Turner,1 Andrew P Dickens,1 David Fitzmaurice,7 Peymane Adab1 1Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; 2Department of Clinical Pharmacy & Toxicology, Maastricht University Medical Center+, Maastricht, the Netherlands; 3Ciro, Horn, the Netherlands; 4Department of Respiratory Medicine, NUTRIM School of Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism, Maastricht University Medical Centre+, Maastricht, The Netherlands; 5Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands; 6NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust and University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; 7Clinical Trials Unit, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UKCorrespondence: Rachel E JordanInstitute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UKTel +44 0121 414 6775Email r.e.jordan@bham.ac.ukBackground: Reviews suggest that the ADO score is the most discriminatory prognostic score for predicting mortality among chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, but a full evaluation and external validation within primary care settings is critical before implementation.Objectives: To validate the ADO score in prevalent and screen-detected primary care COPD cases at 3 years and at shorter time periods.Patients and methods: One thousand eight hundred and ninety-two COPD cases were recruited between 2012 and 2014 from 71 United Kingdom general practices as part of the Birmingham COPD Cohort study. Cases were either on the practice COPD register or screen-detected. We validated the ADO score for predicting 3-year mortality with 1-year and 2-year mortality as secondary endpoints using discrimination (area-under-the-curve (AUC)) and calibration plots.Results: One hundred and fifty-four deaths occurred within 3 years. The ADO score was discriminatory for predicting 3-year mortality (AUC= 0.74; 95% CI: 0.69–0.79). Similar performance was found for 1- (AUC= 0.73; 0.66–0.80) and 2-year mortality (0.72; 0.67–0.76). The ADO score showed reasonable calibration for predicting 3-year mortality (calibration slope 0.95; 0.70–1.19) but over-predicted in cases with higher predicted risks of mortality at 1 (0.79; 0.45–1.13) and 2-year (0.79; 0.57–1.01) mortality.Discussion: The ADO score showed promising discrimination in predicting 3-year mortality in a primary care population including screen-detected cases. It may need to be recalibrated if it is used to provide risk predictions for 1- or 2-year mortality since, in these time-periods, over-prediction was evident, especially in cases with higher predicted mortality risks.Keywords: pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive, mortality, prognosis, validation studies

Dionne CW Braeken,1–3 Gernot GU Rohde,2 Frits ME Franssen,1,2 Johanna HM Driessen,3–5 Tjeerd P van Staa,3,6 Patrick C Souverein,3 Emiel FM Wouters,1,2 Frank de Vries3,4,7 1Department of Research and Education, CIRO, Horn, 2Department of Respiratory Medicine, Maastricht University Medical Centre (MUMC+), Maastricht, 3Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht, 4Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Toxicology, Maastricht University Medical Centre (MUMC+), Maastricht, 5Department of Epidemiology, Care and Public Health Research Institute (CAPHRI), Maastricht, the Netherlands; 6Department of Health eResearch, University of Manchester, Manchester, 7MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, Southampton General Hospital, Southampton, UK Background: Smoking increases the risk of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and is associated with the development of COPD. Until now, it is unclear whether CAP in COPD is due to smoking-related effects, or due to COPD pathophysiology itself. Objective: To evaluate the association between COPD and CAP by smoking status. Methods: In total, 62,621 COPD and 191,654 control subjects, matched by year of birth, gender and primary care practice, were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2005–2014). Incidence rates (IRs) were estimated by dividing the total number of CAP cases by the cumulative person-time at risk. Time-varying Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for CAP in COPD patients versus controls. HRs of CAP by smoking status were calculated by stratified analyses in COPD patients versus controls and within both subgroups with never smoking as reference. Results: IRs of CAP in COPD patients (32.00/1,000 person-years) and controls (6.75/1,000 person-years) increased with age and female gender. The risk of CAP in COPD patients was higher than in controls (HR 4.51, 95% CI: 4.27–4.77). Current smoking COPD patients had comparable CAP risk (HR 0.92, 95% CI: 0.82–1.02) as never smoking COPD patients (reference), whereas current smoking controls had a higher risk (HR 1.23, 95% CI: 1.13–1.34) compared to never smoking controls. Conclusion: COPD patients have a fourfold increased risk to develop CAP, independent of smoking status. Identification of factors related with the increased risk of CAP in COPD is warranted, in order to improve the management of patients at risk. Keywords: COPD, respiratory infections, incidence, smoking risk