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LLM developers have imposed technical interventions to prevent fine-tuning misuse attacks, attacks where adversaries evade safeguards by fine-tuning the model using a public API. Previous work has established several successful attacks against specific fine-tuning API defences. In this work, we show that defences of fine-tuning APIs that seek to detect individual harmful training or inference samples ('pointwise' detection) are fundamentally limited in their ability to prevent fine-tuning attacks. We construct 'pointwise-undetectable' attacks that repurpose entropy in benign model outputs (e.g. semantic or syntactic variations) to covertly transmit dangerous knowledge. Our attacks are composed solely of unsuspicious benign samples that can be collected from the model before fine-tuning, meaning training and inference samples are all individually benign and low-perplexity. We test our attacks against the OpenAI fine-tuning API, finding they succeed in eliciting answers to harmful multiple-choice questions, and that they evade an enhanced monitoring system we design that successfully detects other fine-tuning attacks. We encourage the community to develop defences that tackle the fundamental limitations we uncover in pointwise fine-tuning API defences.

The rapid development of advanced AI agents and the imminent deployment of many instances of these agents will give rise to multi-agent systems of unprecedented complexity. These systems pose novel and under-explored risks. In this report, we provide a structured taxonomy of these risks by identifying three key failure modes (miscoordination, conflict, and collusion) based on agents' incentives, as well as seven key risk factors (information asymmetries, network effects, selection pressures, destabilising dynamics, commitment problems, emergent agency, and multi-agent security) that can underpin them. We highlight several important instances of each risk, as well as promising directions to help mitigate them. By anchoring our analysis in a range of real-world examples and experimental evidence, we illustrate the distinct challenges posed by multi-agent systems and their implications for the safety, governance, and ethics of advanced AI., Comment: Cooperative AI Foundation, Technical Report #1

Recent advances in AI-generated steganography highlight its potential for safeguarding the privacy of vulnerable democratic actors, including aid workers, journalists, and whistleblowers operating in oppressive regimes. In this work, we address current limitations and establish the foundations for large-throughput generative steganography. We introduce a novel approach that enables secure and efficient steganography within latent diffusion models. We show empirically that our methods perform well across a variety of open-source latent diffusion models, particularly in generative image and video tasks.

Benchmarks are important tools for tracking the rapid advancements in large language model (LLM) capabilities. However, benchmarks are not keeping pace in difficulty: LLMs now achieve over 90\% accuracy on popular benchmarks like MMLU, limiting informed measurement of state-of-the-art LLM capabilities. In response, we introduce Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a multi-modal benchmark at the frontier of human knowledge, designed to be the final closed-ended academic benchmark of its kind with broad subject coverage. HLE consists of 2,700 questions across dozens of subjects, including mathematics, humanities, and the natural sciences. HLE is developed globally by subject-matter experts and consists of multiple-choice and short-answer questions suitable for automated grading. Each question has a known solution that is unambiguous and easily verifiable, but cannot be quickly answered via internet retrieval. State-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate low accuracy and calibration on HLE, highlighting a significant gap between current LLM capabilities and the expert human frontier on closed-ended academic questions. To inform research and policymaking upon a clear understanding of model capabilities, we publicly release HLE at https://lastexam.ai., Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures

Enabling effective collaboration among LLMs is a crucial step toward developing autonomous systems capable of solving complex problems. While LLMs are typically used as single-model generators, where humans critique and refine their outputs, the potential for jointly-trained collaborative models remains largely unexplored. Despite promising results in multi-agent communication and debate settings, little progress has been made in training models to work together on tasks. In this paper, we present a first step toward "Multi-agent LLM training" (MALT) on reasoning problems. Our approach employs a sequential multi-agent setup with heterogeneous LLMs assigned specialized roles: a generator, verifier, and refinement model iteratively solving problems. We propose a trajectory-expansion-based synthetic data generation process and a credit assignment strategy driven by joint outcome based rewards. This enables our post-training setup to utilize both positive and negative trajectories to autonomously improve each model's specialized capabilities as part of a joint sequential system. We evaluate our approach across MATH, GSM8k, and CQA, where MALT on Llama 3.1 8B models achieves relative improvements of 14.14%, 7.12%, and 9.40% respectively over the same baseline model. This demonstrates an early advance in multi-agent cooperative capabilities for performance on mathematical and common sense reasoning questions. More generally, our work provides a concrete direction for research around multi-agent LLM training approaches., Comment: Preliminary work

Addressing data integrity challenges, such as unlearning the effects of data poisoning after model training, is necessary for the reliable deployment of machine learning models. State-of-the-art influence functions, such as EK-FAC, often fail to accurately attribute abnormal model behavior to the specific poisoned training data responsible for the data poisoning attack. In addition, traditional unlearning algorithms often struggle to effectively remove the influence of poisoned samples, particularly when only a few affected examples can be identified. To address these challenge, we introduce $\Delta$-Influence, a novel approach that leverages influence functions to trace abnormal model behavior back to the responsible poisoned training data using as little as just one poisoned test example. $\Delta$-Influence applies data transformations that sever the link between poisoned training data and compromised test points without significantly affecting clean data. This allows $\Delta$-Influence to detect large negative shifts in influence scores following data transformations, a phenomenon we term as influence collapse, thereby accurately identifying poisoned training data. Unlearning this subset, e.g. through retraining, effectively eliminates the data poisoning. We validate our method across three vision-based poisoning attacks and three datasets, benchmarking against four detection algorithms and five unlearning strategies. We show that $\Delta$-Influence consistently achieves the best unlearning across all settings, showing the promise of influence functions for corrective unlearning. Our code is publicly available at: \url{https://github.com/andyisokay/delta-influence}, Comment: Accepted at NeurIPS Workshop on Attributing Model Behavior at Scale (ATTRIB @ NeurIPS 2024)

One of the most challenging forms of misinformation involves the out-of-context (OOC) use of images paired with misleading text, creating false narratives. Existing AI-driven detection systems lack explainability and require expensive finetuning. We address these issues with LLM-Consensus, a multi-agent debate system for OOC misinformation detection. LLM-Consensus introduces a novel multi-agent debate framework where multimodal agents collaborate to assess contextual consistency and request external information to enhance cross-context reasoning and decision-making. Our framework enables explainable detection with state-of-the-art accuracy even without domain-specific fine-tuning. Extensive ablation studies confirm that external retrieval significantly improves detection accuracy, and user studies demonstrate that LLM-Consensus boosts performance for both experts and non-experts. These results position LLM-Consensus as a powerful tool for autonomous and citizen intelligence applications.

The Workflows Community Summit gathered 111 participants from 18 countries to discuss emerging trends and challenges in scientific workflows, focusing on six key areas: time-sensitive workflows, AI-HPC convergence, multi-facility workflows, heterogeneous HPC environments, user experience, and FAIR computational workflows. The integration of AI and exascale computing has revolutionized scientific workflows, enabling higher-fidelity models and complex, time-sensitive processes, while introducing challenges in managing heterogeneous environments and multi-facility data dependencies. The rise of large language models is driving computational demands to zettaflop scales, necessitating modular, adaptable systems and cloud-service models to optimize resource utilization and ensure reproducibility. Multi-facility workflows present challenges in data movement, curation, and overcoming institutional silos, while diverse hardware architectures require integrating workflow considerations into early system design and developing standardized resource management tools. The summit emphasized improving user experience in workflow systems and ensuring FAIR workflows to enhance collaboration and accelerate scientific discovery. Key recommendations include developing standardized metrics for time-sensitive workflows, creating frameworks for cloud-HPC integration, implementing distributed-by-design workflow modeling, establishing multi-facility authentication protocols, and accelerating AI integration in HPC workflow management. The summit also called for comprehensive workflow benchmarks, workflow-specific UX principles, and a FAIR workflow maturity model, highlighting the need for continued collaboration in addressing the complex challenges posed by the convergence of AI, HPC, and multi-facility research environments.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are a recent technique for decomposing neural network activations into human-interpretable features. However, in order for SAEs to identify all features represented in frontier models, it will be necessary to scale them up to very high width, posing a computational challenge. In this work, we introduce Switch Sparse Autoencoders, a novel SAE architecture aimed at reducing the compute cost of training SAEs. Inspired by sparse mixture of experts models, Switch SAEs route activation vectors between smaller "expert" SAEs, enabling SAEs to efficiently scale to many more features. We present experiments comparing Switch SAEs with other SAE architectures, and find that Switch SAEs deliver a substantial Pareto improvement in the reconstruction vs. sparsity frontier for a given fixed training compute budget. We also study the geometry of features across experts, analyze features duplicated across experts, and verify that Switch SAE features are as interpretable as features found by other SAE architectures., Comment: Code available at https://github.com/amudide/switch_sae

A key challenge in interpretability is to decompose model activations into meaningful features. Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have emerged as a promising tool for this task. However, a central problem in evaluating the quality of SAEs is the absence of ground truth features to serve as an evaluation gold standard. Current evaluation methods for SAEs are therefore confronted with a significant trade-off: SAEs can either leverage toy models or other proxies with predefined ground truth features; or they use extensive prior knowledge of realistic task circuits. The former limits the generalizability of the evaluation results, while the latter limits the range of models and tasks that can be used for evaluations. We introduce SAGE: Scalable Autoencoder Ground-truth Evaluation, a ground truth evaluation framework for SAEs that scales to large state-of-the-art SAEs and models. We demonstrate that our method can automatically identify task-specific activations and compute ground truth features at these points. Compared to previous methods we reduce the training overhead by introducing a novel reconstruction method that allows to apply residual stream SAEs to sublayer activations. This eliminates the need for SAEs trained on every task-specific activation location. Then we validate the scalability of our framework, by evaluating SAEs on novel tasks on Pythia70M, GPT-2 Small, and Gemma-2-2. Our framework therefore paves the way for generalizable, large-scale evaluations of SAEs in interpretability research.

The rapid proliferation of AI-manipulated or generated audio deepfakes poses serious challenges to media integrity and election security. Current AI-driven detection solutions lack explainability and underperform in real-world settings. In this paper, we introduce novel explainability methods for state-of-the-art transformer-based audio deepfake detectors and open-source a novel benchmark for real-world generalizability. By narrowing the explainability gap between transformer-based audio deepfake detectors and traditional methods, our results not only build trust with human experts, but also pave the way for unlocking the potential of citizen intelligence to overcome the scalability issue in audio deepfake detection.

As a powerful and rapidly advancing dual-use technology, AI offers both immense benefits and worrisome risks. In response, governing bodies around the world are developing a range of regulatory AI laws and policies. This paper compares three distinct approaches taken by the EU, China and the US. Within the US, we explore AI regulation at both the federal and state level, with a focus on California's pending Senate Bill 1047. Each regulatory system reflects distinct cultural, political and economic perspectives. Each also highlights differing regional perspectives on regulatory risk-benefit tradeoffs, with divergent judgments on the balance between safety versus innovation and cooperation versus competition. Finally, differences between regulatory frameworks reflect contrastive stances in regards to trust in centralized authority versus trust in a more decentralized free market of self-interested stakeholders. Taken together, these varied approaches to AI innovation and regulation influence each other, the broader international community, and the future of AI regulation., Comment: 36 pages, 11 figures and tables

The rapid proliferation of frontier model agents promises significant societal advances but also raises concerns about systemic risks arising from unsafe interactions. Collusion to the disadvantage of others has been identified as a central form of undesirable agent cooperation. The use of information hiding (steganography) in agent communications could render collusion practically undetectable. This underscores the need for evaluation frameworks to monitor and mitigate steganographic collusion capabilities. We address a crucial gap in the literature by demonstrating, for the first time, that robust steganographic collusion in LLMs can arise indirectly from optimization pressure. To investigate this problem we design two approaches -- a gradient-based reinforcement learning (GBRL) method and an in-context reinforcement learning (ICRL) method -- for reliably eliciting sophisticated LLM-generated linguistic text steganography. Importantly, we find that emergent steganographic collusion can be robust to both passive steganalytic oversight of model outputs and active mitigation through communication paraphrasing. We contribute a novel model evaluation framework and discuss limitations and future work. Our findings imply that effective risk mitigation from steganographic collusion post-deployment requires innovation in passive and active oversight techniques.

Global expansion of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) will see the strategic addition of antennas at new geographical locations, transforming the sensitivity and imaging fidelity of the $\lambda \sim 1$\,mm EHT array. A possible South African EHT station would leverage a strong geographical advantage, local infrastructure, and radio astronomy expertise, and have strong synergies with the Africa Millimetre Telescope in Namibia. We assessed three South African candidate millimetre sites using climatological simulations and antenna sensitivity estimates, and found at least two promising sites. These sites are comparable to some existing EHT stations during the typical April EHT observing window and outperform them during most of the year, especially the southern hemisphere winter. The results suggest that a strategically placed South African EHT station will have a sizable, positive impact on next-generation EHT objectives and the resulting black hole imaging science., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in URSI Radio Science Letters

Using the full potential of LLMs in higher education is hindered by challenges with access to LLMs. The two main access modes currently discussed are paying for a cloud-based LLM or providing a locally maintained open LLM. In this paper, we describe the current state of establishing an open LLM infrastructure at FernUniversit\"at in Hagen under the project name FLEXI (FernUni LLM Experimental Infrastructure). FLEXI enables experimentation within teaching and research with the goal of generating strongly needed evidence in favor (or against) the use of locally maintained open LLMs in higher education. The paper will provide some practical guidance for everyone trying to decide whether to run their own LLM server.

AI systems are increasingly pervasive, yet information needed to decide whether and how to engage with them may not exist or be accessible. A user may not be able to verify whether a system has certain safety certifications. An investigator may not know whom to investigate when a system causes an incident. It may not be clear whom to contact to shut down a malfunctioning system. Across a number of domains, IDs address analogous problems by identifying particular entities (e.g., a particular Boeing 747) and providing information about other entities of the same class (e.g., some or all Boeing 747s). We propose a framework in which IDs are ascribed to instances of AI systems (e.g., a particular chat session with Claude 3), and associated information is accessible to parties seeking to interact with that system. We characterize IDs for AI systems, provide concrete examples where IDs could be useful, argue that there could be significant demand for IDs from key actors, analyze how those actors could incentivize ID adoption, explore a potential implementation of our framework for deployers of AI systems, and highlight limitations and risks. IDs seem most warranted in settings where AI systems could have a large impact upon the world, such as in making financial transactions or contacting real humans. With further study, IDs could help to manage a world where AI systems pervade society., Comment: Under review; accepted to RegML workshop at NeurIPS 2024

The rapid proliferation of open-source language models significantly increases the risks of downstream backdoor attacks. These backdoors can introduce dangerous behaviours during model deployment and can evade detection by conventional cybersecurity monitoring systems. In this paper, we introduce a novel class of backdoors in transformer models, that, in contrast to prior art, are unelicitable in nature. Unelicitability prevents the defender from triggering the backdoor, making it impossible to properly evaluate ahead of deployment even if given full white-box access and using automated techniques, such as red-teaming or certain formal verification methods. We show that our novel construction is not only unelicitable thanks to using cryptographic techniques, but also has favourable robustness properties. We confirm these properties in empirical investigations, and provide evidence that our backdoors can withstand state-of-the-art mitigation strategies. Additionally, we expand on previous work by showing that our universal backdoors, while not completely undetectable in white-box settings, can be harder to detect than some existing designs. By demonstrating the feasibility of seamlessly integrating backdoors into transformer models, this paper fundamentally questions the efficacy of pre-deployment detection strategies. This offers new insights into the offence-defence balance in AI safety and security., Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures

Minimum-entropy coupling (MEC) -- the process of finding a joint distribution with minimum entropy for given marginals -- has applications in areas such as causality and steganography. However, existing algorithms are either computationally intractable for large-support distributions or limited to specific distribution types and sensitive to hyperparameter choices. This work addresses these limitations by unifying a prior family of iterative MEC (IMEC) approaches into a generalized partition-based formalism. From this framework, we derive a novel IMEC algorithm called ARIMEC, capable of handling arbitrary discrete distributions, and introduce a method to make IMEC robust to suboptimal hyperparameter settings. These innovations facilitate the application of IMEC to high-throughput steganography with language models, among other settings. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/ssokota/mec .

In the next few years, applications of Generative AI are expected to revolutionize a number of different areas, ranging from science & medicine to education. The potential for these seismic changes has triggered a lively debate about potential risks and resulted in calls for tighter regulation, in particular from some of the major tech companies who are leading in AI development. This regulation is likely to put at risk the budding field of open-source Generative AI. We argue for the responsible open sourcing of generative AI models in the near and medium term. To set the stage, we first introduce an AI openness taxonomy system and apply it to 40 current large language models. We then outline differential benefits and risks of open versus closed source AI and present potential risk mitigation, ranging from best practices to calls for technical and scientific contributions. We hope that this report will add a much needed missing voice to the current public discourse on near to mid-term AI safety and other societal impact., Comment: Accepted to ICML'24 as a position paper

This work identifies 18 foundational challenges in assuring the alignment and safety of large language models (LLMs). These challenges are organized into three different categories: scientific understanding of LLMs, development and deployment methods, and sociotechnical challenges. Based on the identified challenges, we pose $200+$ concrete research questions.

While reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have been successfully applied across numerous sequential decision-making problems, their generalization to unforeseen testing environments remains a significant concern. In this paper, we study the problem of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection in RL, which focuses on identifying situations at test time that RL agents have not encountered in their training environments. We first propose a clarification of terminology for OOD detection in RL, which aligns it with the literature from other machine learning domains. We then present new benchmark scenarios for OOD detection, which introduce anomalies with temporal autocorrelation into different components of the agent-environment loop. We argue that such scenarios have been understudied in the current literature, despite their relevance to real-world situations. Confirming our theoretical predictions, our experimental results suggest that state-of-the-art OOD detectors are not able to identify such anomalies. To address this problem, we propose a novel method for OOD detection, which we call DEXTER (Detection via Extraction of Time Series Representations). By treating environment observations as time series data, DEXTER extracts salient time series features, and then leverages an ensemble of isolation forest algorithms to detect anomalies. We find that DEXTER can reliably identify anomalies across benchmark scenarios, exhibiting superior performance compared to both state-of-the-art OOD detectors and high-dimensional changepoint detectors adopted from statistics., Comment: Accepted as a full paper to the 23rd International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2024)

Recent capability increases in large language models (LLMs) open up applications in which groups of communicating generative AI agents solve joint tasks. This poses privacy and security challenges concerning the unauthorised sharing of information, or other unwanted forms of agent coordination. Modern steganographic techniques could render such dynamics hard to detect. In this paper, we comprehensively formalise the problem of secret collusion in systems of generative AI agents by drawing on relevant concepts from both AI and security literature. We study incentives for the use of steganography, and propose a variety of mitigation measures. Our investigations result in a model evaluation framework that systematically tests capabilities required for various forms of secret collusion. We provide extensive empirical results across a range of contemporary LLMs. While the steganographic capabilities of current models remain limited, GPT-4 displays a capability jump suggesting the need for continuous monitoring of steganographic frontier model capabilities. We conclude by laying out a comprehensive research program to mitigate future risks of collusion between generative AI models.

The increasing prevalence of multi-agent learning systems in society necessitates understanding how to learn effective and safe policies in general-sum multi-agent environments against a variety of opponents, including self-play. General-sum learning is difficult because of non-stationary opponents and misaligned incentives. Our first main contribution is to show that many recent approaches to general-sum learning can be derived as approximations to Stackelberg strategies, which suggests a framework for developing new multi-agent learning algorithms. We then define non-coincidental games as games in which the Stackelberg strategy profile is not a Nash Equilibrium. This notably includes several canonical matrix games and provides a normative theory for why existing algorithms fail in self-play in such games. We address this problem by introducing Welfare Equilibria (WE) as a generalisation of Stackelberg Strategies, which can recover desirable Nash Equilibria even in non-coincidental games. Finally, we introduce Welfare Function Search (WelFuSe) as a practical approach to finding desirable WE against unknown opponents, which finds more mutually desirable solutions in self-play, while preserving performance against naive learning opponents., Comment: 31 pages, 23 figures

Benchmarks are crucial in the development of machine learning algorithms, with available environments significantly influencing reinforcement learning (RL) research. Traditionally, RL environments run on the CPU, which limits their scalability with typical academic compute. However, recent advancements in JAX have enabled the wider use of hardware acceleration, enabling massively parallel RL training pipelines and environments. While this has been successfully applied to single-agent RL, it has not yet been widely adopted for multi-agent scenarios. In this paper, we present JaxMARL, the first open-source, Python-based library that combines GPU-enabled efficiency with support for a large number of commonly used MARL environments and popular baseline algorithms. Our experiments show that, in terms of wall clock time, our JAX-based training pipeline is around 14 times faster than existing approaches, and up to 12500x when multiple training runs are vectorized. This enables efficient and thorough evaluations, potentially alleviating the evaluation crisis in the field. We also introduce and benchmark SMAX, a JAX-based approximate reimplementation of the popular StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge, which removes the need to run the StarCraft II game engine. This not only enables GPU acceleration, but also provides a more flexible MARL environment, unlocking the potential for self-play, meta-learning, and other future applications in MARL. The code is available at https://github.com/flairox/jaxmarl.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) offers a principled and elegant approach for sequential decision making under uncertainty. Most notably, Bayesian agents do not face an exploration/exploitation dilemma, a major pathology of frequentist methods. However theoretical understanding of model-free approaches is lacking. In this paper, we introduce a novel Bayesian model-free formulation and the first analysis showing that model-free approaches can yield Bayes-optimal policies. We show all existing model-free approaches make approximations that yield policies that can be arbitrarily Bayes-suboptimal. As a first step towards model-free Bayes optimality, we introduce the Bayesian exploration network (BEN) which uses normalising flows to model both the aleatoric uncertainty (via density estimation) and epistemic uncertainty (via variational inference) in the Bellman operator. In the limit of complete optimisation, BEN learns true Bayes-optimal policies, but like in variational expectation-maximisation, partial optimisation renders our approach tractable. Empirical results demonstrate that BEN can learn true Bayes-optimal policies in tasks where existing model-free approaches fail., Comment: Typos fixed and provided clearer proof of Theorem 3.2

The third realization of the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF3) was adopted in August 2018 and includes positions of extragalactic objects at three frequencies: 8.4 GHz, 24 GHz, and 32 GHz. In this paper, we present celestial reference frames estimated from Very Long Baseline Interferometry measurements at K-band (24 GHz) including data until June 2022. The data set starts in May 2002 and currently consists of more than 120 24h observing sessions performed over the past 20 years. Since the publication of ICRF3, the additional observations of the sources during the last four years allow maintenance of the celestial reference frame and more than 200 additional radio sources ensure an expansion of the frame. A study of the presented solutions is carried out helping us to understand systematic differences between the astrometric catalogs and moving us towards a better next ICRF solution. We compare K-band solutions (VIE-K-2022b and USNO-K-2022July05) computed by two analysts with two independent software packages (VieVS and Calc/Solve) and describe the differences in the solution strategy. We assess the systematic differences using vector spherical harmonics and describe the reasons for the most prominent ones., Comment: accepted for publication in International Association of Geodesy Symposia, peer-reviewed

The International VLBI Service for Geodesy & Astrometry (IVS) regularly provides high-quality data to produce Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP), and for the maintenance and realization of the International Terrestrial and Celestial Reference Frames, ITRF and ICRF. The first iteration of the celestial reference frame (CRF) at radio wavelengths, the ICRF1, was adopted by the International Astronomical Union (IAU) in 1997 to replace the FK5 optical frame. Soon after, the IVS began official operations and in 2009 there was a significant increase in data sufficient to warrant a second iteration of the CRF, ICRF2. The most recent ICRF3, was adopted by the IAU in 2018. However, due to the geographic distribution of observing stations being concentrated in the Northern hemisphere, CRFs are generally weaker in the South due to there being fewer Southern Hemisphere observations. To increase the Southern Hemisphere observations, and the density, precision of the sources, a series of deep South observing sessions was initiated in 1995. This initiative in 2004 became the IVS Celestial Reference Frame Deep South (IVS-CRDS) observing program. This paper covers the evolution of the CRDS observing program for the period 1995 to 2021, details the data products and results, and concludes with a summary of upcoming improvements to this ongoing project., Comment: 25 pages, 16 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in PASA 2nd June 2023. Resubmit as a co-author was missed in the arXiv metadata, paper is the same

Extent of resection after surgery is one of the main prognostic factors for patients diagnosed with glioblastoma. To achieve this, accurate segmentation and classification of residual tumor from post-operative MR images is essential. The current standard method for estimating it is subject to high inter- and intra-rater variability, and an automated method for segmentation of residual tumor in early post-operative MRI could lead to a more accurate estimation of extent of resection. In this study, two state-of-the-art neural network architectures for pre-operative segmentation were trained for the task. The models were extensively validated on a multicenter dataset with nearly 1000 patients, from 12 hospitals in Europe and the United States. The best performance achieved was a 61\% Dice score, and the best classification performance was about 80\% balanced accuracy, with a demonstrated ability to generalize across hospitals. In addition, the segmentation performance of the best models was on par with human expert raters. The predicted segmentations can be used to accurately classify the patients into those with residual tumor, and those with gross total resection., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables

We show that the total monoids totnM_{k,1} introduced by Birget(and their multi-rooted generalisations), which extend the Brin-Higman-Thompson groups, can be realised as the endomorphism monoids of higher dimensional J\'onnson-Tarski algebras. We use this representation to show that they are finitely presented., Comment: 18 pages

By enabling agents to communicate, recent cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) methods have demonstrated better task performance and more coordinated behavior. Most existing approaches facilitate inter-agent communication by allowing agents to send messages to each other through free communication channels, i.e., cheap talk channels. Current methods require these channels to be constantly accessible and known to the agents a priori. In this work, we lift these requirements such that the agents must discover the cheap talk channels and learn how to use them. Hence, the problem has two main parts: cheap talk discovery (CTD) and cheap talk utilization (CTU). We introduce a novel conceptual framework for both parts and develop a new algorithm based on mutual information maximization that outperforms existing algorithms in CTD/CTU settings. We also release a novel benchmark suite to stimulate future research in CTD/CTU., Comment: The 11th International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)

Radio-loud quasars at high redshift (z > 4) are rare objects in the Universe and rarely observed with Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). But some of them have flux density sufficiently high for monitoring of their apparent position. The instability of the astrometric positions could be linked to the astrophysical process in the jetted active galactic nuclei in the early Universe. Regular observations of the high-redshift quasars are used for estimating their apparent proper motion over several years. We have undertaken regular VLBI observations of several high-redshift quasars at 2.3 GHz (S band) and 8.4 GHz (X band) with a network of five radio telescopes: 40-m Yebes (Spain), 25-m Sheshan (China), and three 32-m telescopes of the Quasar VLBI Network (Russia) -- Svetloe, Zelenchukskaya, and Badary. Additional facilities joined this network occasionally. The sources have also been observed in three sessions with the European VLBI Network (EVN) in 2018--2019 and one Long Baseline Array (LBA) experiment in 2018. In addition, several experiments conducted with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) in 2017--2018were used to improve the time sampling and the statistics. Based on these 37 astrometric VLBI experiments between 2017 and 2021, we estimated the apparent proper motions of four quasars: 0901+697, 1428+422, 1508+572, and 2101+600.

Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) is a strong, compact radio source believed to be powered by a super-massive black hole at the galactic center. Extinction by dust and gas in the galactic plane prevents observing it optically, but its position and proper motion have previously been estimated using radio interferometry. We present new VLBI absolute astrometry measurements of its precise position and proper motion in the frame of the third realization of the International Celestial Reference Frame, ICRF3. The observations used were made at 52 epochs on the VLBA at K-band (24 GHz) between June 2006 and August 2022. We find the proper motion of Sgr A* to be -3.128 $\pm$ 0.042 mas/yr in right ascension and -5.584 $\pm$ 0.075 mas/yr in declination, or 6.400 $\pm$ 0.073 mas/yr at a position angle of 209.26 $\pm$ 0.51 degrees. We also find its J2000 ICRF3 coordinates at the 2015.0 proper motion epoch to be 17$^h$45$^m$40.034047$^s$ $\pm$ 0.000018$^s$, -29$^o$00'28.21601'' $\pm$ 0.00044''. In galactic coordinates, Sgr A* shows proper motion of -6.396 $\pm$ 0.071 mas/yr in galactic longitude and -0.239 $\pm$ 0.045 mas/yr in galactic latitude, indicating solar motion of 248.0 $\pm$ 2.8 km/sec in the galactic plane and 9.3 $\pm$ 1.9 km/sec towards the north galactic pole., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal

The energy transition potentially poses an existential risk for major international oil companies (IOCs) if they fail to adapt to low-carbon business models. Projections of energy futures, however, are met with diverging assumptions on its scale and pace, causing disagreement among IOC decision-makers and their stakeholders over what the business model of an incumbent fossil fuel company should be. In this work, we used deep multi-agent reinforcement learning to solve an energy systems wargame wherein players simulate IOC decision-making, including hydrocarbon and low-carbon investments decisions, dividend policies, and capital structure measures, through an uncertain energy transition to explore critical and non-linear governance questions, from leveraged transitions to reserve replacements. Adversarial play facilitated by state-of-the-art algorithms revealed decision-making strategies robust to energy transition uncertainty and against multiple IOCs. In all games, robust strategies emerged in the form of low-carbon business models as a result of early transition-oriented movement. IOCs adopting such strategies outperformed business-as-usual and delayed transition strategies regardless of hydrocarbon demand projections. In addition to maximizing value, these strategies benefit greater society by contributing substantial amounts of capital necessary to accelerate the global low-carbon energy transition. Our findings point towards the need for lenders and investors to effectively mobilize transition-oriented finance and engage with IOCs to ensure responsible reallocation of capital towards low-carbon business models that would enable the emergence of fossil fuel incumbents as future low-carbon leaders.

Steganography is the practice of encoding secret information into innocuous content in such a manner that an adversarial third party would not realize that there is hidden meaning. While this problem has classically been studied in security literature, recent advances in generative models have led to a shared interest among security and machine learning researchers in developing scalable steganography techniques. In this work, we show that a steganography procedure is perfectly secure under Cachin (1998)'s information-theoretic model of steganography if and only if it is induced by a coupling. Furthermore, we show that, among perfectly secure procedures, a procedure maximizes information throughput if and only if it is induced by a minimum entropy coupling. These insights yield what are, to the best of our knowledge, the first steganography algorithms to achieve perfect security guarantees for arbitrary covertext distributions. To provide empirical validation, we compare a minimum entropy coupling-based approach to three modern baselines -- arithmetic coding, Meteor, and adaptive dynamic grouping -- using GPT-2, WaveRNN, and Image Transformer as communication channels. We find that the minimum entropy coupling-based approach achieves superior encoding efficiency, despite its stronger security constraints. In aggregate, these results suggest that it may be natural to view information-theoretic steganography through the lens of minimum entropy coupling.

Successful coordination in Dec-POMDPs requires agents to adopt robust strategies and interpretable styles of play for their partner. A common failure mode is symmetry breaking, when agents arbitrarily converge on one out of many equivalent but mutually incompatible policies. Commonly these examples include partial observability, e.g. waving your right hand vs. left hand to convey a covert message. In this paper, we present a novel equivariant network architecture for use in Dec-POMDPs that effectively leverages environmental symmetry for improving zero-shot coordination, doing so more effectively than prior methods. Our method also acts as a ``coordination-improvement operator'' for generic, pre-trained policies, and thus may be applied at test-time in conjunction with any self-play algorithm. We provide theoretical guarantees of our work and test on the AI benchmark task of Hanabi, where we demonstrate our methods outperforming other symmetry-aware baselines in zero-shot coordination, as well as able to improve the coordination ability of a variety of pre-trained policies. In particular, we show our method can be used to improve on the state of the art for zero-shot coordination on the Hanabi benchmark.

Tremendous progress has been made in reinforcement learning (RL) over the past decade. Most of these advancements came through the continual development of new algorithms, which were designed using a combination of mathematical derivations, intuitions, and experimentation. Such an approach of creating algorithms manually is limited by human understanding and ingenuity. In contrast, meta-learning provides a toolkit for automatic machine learning method optimisation, potentially addressing this flaw. However, black-box approaches which attempt to discover RL algorithms with minimal prior structure have thus far not outperformed existing hand-crafted algorithms. Mirror Learning, which includes RL algorithms, such as PPO, offers a potential middle-ground starting point: while every method in this framework comes with theoretical guarantees, components that differentiate them are subject to design. In this paper we explore the Mirror Learning space by meta-learning a "drift" function. We refer to the immediate result as Learnt Policy Optimisation (LPO). By analysing LPO we gain original insights into policy optimisation which we use to formulate a novel, closed-form RL algorithm, Discovered Policy Optimisation (DPO). Our experiments in Brax environments confirm state-of-the-art performance of LPO and DPO, as well as their transfer to unseen settings., Comment: NeurIPS 2022