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4H-SiC/ SiO 2 interface states play a major role in the performance and reliability of modern 4H-SiC metal–oxide–semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs). To gain new insights into these interface states, we developed a cryogenic measurement technique that uses photon-assisted electron depopulation to probe device performance limiting 4H-SiC/ SiO 2 interface states. This technique enables the characterization of shallow as well as deep states at the 4H-SiC/ SiO 2 interface of fully processed devices using a cryogenic probe station. Our method is performed on n-channel 4H-SiC MOSFET test structures with deposited oxide and postoxidation anneal. We identify conditions under which the electrons remain trapped at 4H-SiC/ SiO 2 interface states and trigger the controlled photon-assisted electron depopulation within a range of photon energies. This allows us to prove the presence of near interface traps, which have previously been found in thermally grown 4H-SiC MOS structures. Our results are supported by device simulations. Additionally, we study the impact of irradiation intensity and light exposure time on the photon-induced processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ultrafast relaxation dynamics of tetracene following UV excitation to the bright singlet state S6 has been studied with time-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy. With the help of high-level ab initio multireference perturbation theory calculations, we assign photoelectron signals to intermediate dark electronic states S3, S4, and S5 as well as to a low-lying electronic state S2. The energetic structure of these dark states has not been determined experimentally previously. The time-dependent photoelectron yields assigned to the states S6, S5, and S4 have been analyzed and reveal the depopulation of S6 within 60 fs, while S5 and S4 are populated with delays of about 50 and 80 fs. The dynamics of the lower-lying states S3 and S2 seem to agree with a delayed population coinciding with the depopulation of the higher-lying states S4–S6 but could not be elucidated in full detail due to the low signal levels of the corresponding two-photon ionization probe processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Production companies are facing increasing production complexity and demographic change. Therefore, with its decreasing physiological and mental performance prerequisites, the aging workforce is often confronted with overload at the workplace leading to fatigue and work errors in the short term and increasing sick days in the long term. Integrating physiological and mental aspects into existing employee scheduling is one way to maintain employees' health and performance. Incorporating these aspects is often very complex due to the need for multiple disciplines and the lack of supporting methods and tools. Therefore, this paper provides a practical-oriented overview for including physiological and mental aspects in existing employee scheduling. The intercorrelation between workload, individual performance prerequisites and strain, their measurement methods, and standardised alternatives are explained to support industrial practitioners in production management, like planners. A four-step method for integrating physiological and mental aspects in employee scheduling is presented. With the help of this method, the interaction between the ergonomics/human factors departments and production management can be improved, resulting in a more human-oriented employee scheduling. A practical example from manual assembly illustrates the application of the presented approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The redfishes (genus Sebastes) are long-lived, commercial species in the North Atlantic. Excessive harvest through decades has led to a decline in the mature population of golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus) in Norwegian waters, which is currently considered severely depleted. Accumulating genetic evidence suggests a more complex structure within this genus in the North Atlantic, which has recently inspired the hypotheses of cryptic species within S. norvegicus. Despite apparent genetic divergence between two types, they have yet to be verified morphologically. The morphology of genetically assigned fishes from Norwegian and Greenland waters was investigated using traditional morphometric methods, applying Linear Discriminant Analysis and Random Forest classification procedures to identify and evaluate the performance of descriptive characters. Combined with non-parametric meristic analysis, the results show that features such as beak length and eye diameter provide sufficient discrimination between the proposed cryptic species as well as separating them from the sympatric species S. mentella and S. viviparus. These findings support the presence of an additional redfish species in the North Atlantic, distinguishable both by morphological and genetic characters. This needs to be taken into consideration in future monitoring and management strategies for North Atlantic redfish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding is a pervasive natural hazard with wide-ranging impacts on society. Using a high-resolution global flood model considering coastal, fluvial, and pluvial hazards, we clarify the role of climate effects versus population growth effects in changing flood exposure. Between 2020 and 2100, the population likely exposed to 1% annual risk (100-year) flood hazard will increase from 1.6 to 1.9 billion people. Of this change from the 2020 exposure, we attribute 21.1% to climate change, 76.8% to population change, and 2.1% to both climate and population change. The largest driver of uncertainty in exposure is population change, while climate change remains a smaller but still important driver. The global increase in exposure between 2020 and 2100 is primarily driven by low-GDP regions, and by 2100 the lowest GDP areas will make up 63% of the exposure both overall and in urban areas. Urban areas are especially vulnerable in nearly all global regions, and urban areas sensitive to extreme events are expected to see a 33% increase in population exposure. This study highlights the vast inequities in flood exposure, and future work should direct resources and strategies toward sustainable risk mitigation in these areas. This study explores how climate change and population growth shape flood exposure. By 2100, exposure could rise from 1.6 to 1.9 billion people, driven 21% by climate change and 77% by population growth, with low-income and urban regions most affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Due to the declining interest among medical students in pursuing a surgical career, the impact of demographic changes and the technical challenges, there is an increasing need to attract medical students to the surgical profession. Against this backdrop, a teaching project was developed to familiarize medical students with minimally invasive surgical techniques early in the preclinical education, thereby increasing the interest in surgery. Material and methods: Within the framework of the regular anatomical dissection course the following modules on laparoscopic surgery were integrated: (1) clinical lecture on the technique and application of laparoscopy, (2) exploratory live laparoscopy on a body donor and (3) practical exercises on laparoscopic trainers. The impact of this teaching project on the interest in a surgical career and on the clinical anatomical understanding was evaluated among 295 participating medical students. Results: The evaluation revealed a pronounced gender-independent interest in learning surgical skills early in the preclinical study phase. The teaching project led to a significantly increased interest in pursuing a surgical career. Moreover, the incorporation of laparoscopic teaching modules into the preclinical anatomy course enhanced the learning motivation and understanding of clinically relevant topographic anatomy. Conclusion: The integration of practical surgical content into preclinical anatomical education can increase the attractiveness of surgical disciplines and simultaneously optimize teaching of anatomy. Longitudinal studies are required to examine the sustainability of these clinical teaching modules in career decisions of medical students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore a number of alternative initiatives emerging in Epirus, Greece. Epirus is a region facing developmental problems, such as remoteness, population ageing, population decline and more. In the last years, a wide range of grassroots initiatives have emerged, unravelling alternative developmental pathways and challenging the traditional growth-driven development objectives. Through our empirical research, we explore how the initiatives in question (a) emerge in the considered ‘underdeveloped’ rural and peripheral areas of Epirus; (b) propose alternative developmental pathways and respond to the local and regional issues with grassroots innovative practices showing post-capitalistic perspectives for post-growth futures; (c) are linked to local and regional governments and policy makers and how they can be supported when those actors are not engaging with their practices and objectives. In the end, we aim to contribute to the existing literature on post-capitalistic alternative futures, showing how seeds from such futures are planted in the ‘here and now’ in places that are mostly needed and can lead to reproducible results for peripheral areas and beyond. As one of our interviewees mentioned ‘If we can make it there, we can make it everywhere’. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In animals, metabolic rates during ontogeny often scale differently from the way they do in cross-species or population comparisons, with near-isometric scaling patterns more often observed during juvenile growth. In multiple social insect taxa, colony metabolic rate scales hypometrically across species or populations at the same developmental stage, but metabolic patterns during ontogeny have not been examined for any social insect species. We performed the first ontogenetic study of social metabolic scaling in harvester ant colonies (Pogonomyrmex californicus) over 3.5 years as they grew from 52 ± 12 to 767 ± 380 workers. Our data reveal iso- and hypermetric metabolic scaling during the first 20 months of growth, transitioning to hypometric scaling (scaling exponent = 0.93) thereafter. We discovered that the fraction of colony as brood has dual effects on colonial metabolic rate. A higher fraction of the colony that is brood decreases colonial metabolic rate because brood has approximately half the mass-specific metabolic rates of adult ants. Conversely, metabolic rate and activity of adult ants increase as this fraction increases. We further developed a nonlinear composition model, which shows that the maximal colony metabolic rate occurs when 29% of the colony mass is brood, suggesting that demographic changes and colony size may interact to drive the metabolic scaling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of rural depopulation, spatial reorganization of settlements is widely recognized as a critical strategy to alleviate the human-land contradiction and enhance land use efficiency in the black-soil region. Using Yushu County as a case study, this paper explores an approach to the spatial optimization of urban–rural settlements in the black soil region. Currently, the urban–rural settlement system exhibits a distorted structure characterized by an excess of small settlements and a scarcity of large and medium-sized settlements, while the rank-size curve illustrates the phenomenon of "raising head, craning neck and drooping tail." Rural development potential displays a pronounced high-high and low-low aggregation pattern. In light of this, the consolidation of settlements should be implemented at two scales: administrative villages and towns. In areas with high potential for rural development, merging natural settlements into the central settlement within an administrative village is recommended. In areas with low potential for rural development, the relocation and consolidation of natural settlements should be guided by the ideal service radius of central settlements within a town. This approach could preserve the original social relations to the greatest extent, thus facilitating the effective implementation of rural restructuring strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses recently released data from the 2020 Census, along with earlier censuses, to document the geographic spread of several signature dimensions of rural demographic change over the past three decades. These include depopulation, deaths, diversity, and deprivation—the 4Ds—which are now reshaping rural America, perhaps as never before. Rural America is at a crossroads. Since 1990, nonmetro counties have diverged along two tracks, one marked by population growth and renewal, the other by stagnation and lagging economic growth. We show that urbanization is a marker of rural demographic success, and that many nonmetro counties have been left behind in today’s metropolitan and global economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the main form of global rural decline, the impact of rural population loss on the overall level and trend of rural multifunction is still unclear. Thus, it is crucial to reveal the characteristics and influencing factors of rural multifunction changes in depopulation areas which is important to actively deal with depopulation and promote sustainable development in rural areas. Based on an evaluation of rural multifunctionality from 2000 to 2020, the spatial statistical analysis method and a geographical model were used to reveal the declining characteristics of rural multifunction in the depopulation area, as well as the effects of the influencing factors in the whole region and under various population size areas. The results show that demographic changes had a significant impact on rural multifunction development. Compared to areas with population growth, the weakening of rural multifunctionality was more likely to occur in counties with depopulation. The negative impact of population shrinkage on rural multifunction development was shown in our results as an inverted "U" shape. In the process of demographic shrinkage, the dominant factors affecting rural multifunctionality in the whole region tended to be diversified, but the population urbanization rate was always the main factor. Among regions with different population sizes, natural factors played important roles in the development of rural multifunction, and depopulation enhanced the impact of economic factors. The interaction effect of natural, social, and economic factors was stronger than that of a single factor in rural multifunction. In the process of depopulation, the interaction effect was more and more polarized. The interaction effect of economic and natural factors enhanced, but which was the most stable in mid-population-size areas. Thus, to alleviate rural decline and realize rural revitalization, the trend of demographic change should be given attention to keep a moderate population size, as well as we should actively deal with the impact of population shrinkage on rural multifunction according to different stages of population shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nocturnal aye-aye, Daubentonia madagascariensis , is one of the most elusive lemurs on the island of Madagascar. The timing of its activity and arboreal lifestyle has generally made it difficult to obtain accurate assessments of population size using traditional census methods. Therefore, alternative estimates provided by population genetic inference are essential for yielding much needed information for conservation measures and for enabling ecological and evolutionary studies of this species. Here, we utilize genomic data from 17 individuals—including 5 newly sequenced, high-coverage genomes—to estimate this history. Essential to this estimation are recently published annotations of the aye-aye genome which allow for variation at putatively neutral genomic regions to be included in the estimation procedures, and regions subject to selective constraints, or in linkage to such sites, to be excluded owing to the biasing effects of selection on demographic inference. By comparing a variety of demographic estimation tools to develop a well-supported model of population history, we find strong support for two demes, separating northern Madagascar from the rest of the island. Additionally, we find that the aye-aye has experienced two severe reductions in population size. The first occurred rapidly, ∼3,000 to 5,000 years ago, and likely corresponded with the arrival of humans to Madagascar. The second occurred over the past few decades and is likely related to substantial habitat loss, suggesting that the species is still undergoing population decline and remains at great risk for extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns in crocodiles sustainability have long been overlooked, due to humans fear of its ferocity and unresolved human-crocodile conflicts. The siamese crocodile (Crocodylus siamensis) and false gharial (Tomistoma schlegelii) are considered threatened by the IUCN red list because of their limited range and declining populations. In this study we developed habitat suitability model for both species and overlaid with anthropogenic factors to mitigate conflict between crocodiles and human in Mesangat-Suwi Wetland, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. We collected species presence from 2018-2023, measured environmental variables, interviewed 100 respondents, and mapped all information with Maximum Enthropy program (MaxEnt). Results showed that different factors influenced the habitat distribution for each species. Specifically, distance from swamps was affected the most for both crocodiles. Our model found that the potential habitat was much smaller than the non-potential ones due to humans' intrusion. Much of the Mesangat-Suwi area was covered in high-conflict zones between humans and crocodiles, endangering both species even more. Hence, serious actions were urgently needed to resolve the conflict, either by prevention and mitigation actions, to ensure human-crocodile coexistence in East Kalimantan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insects play essential roles in ecosystems, providing services such as pollination and pest regulation. However, global insect populations are in decline due to factors like habitat loss and climate change, raising concerns about ecosystem stability. Traditional insect monitoring methods are limited in scope, but advancements in AI and machine learning enable automated, non-invasive monitoring with camera traps. In this study, we leverage the new Diopsis dataset that contains images from field operations to explore an approach that emphasizes both background extraction from images and the SAHI approach. By creating augmented backgrounds from extracting insects from training images and using these backgrounds as canvases to artificially relocate insects, we can improve detection accuracy, reaching mAP50 72.7% with YOLO10nano, and reduce variability when counting insects on different backgrounds and image sizes, supporting efficient insect monitoring on low-power devices such as Raspberry Pi Zero W 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Genomic projections of (mal)adaptation under future climate change, known as genomic offset, faces limited application due to challenges in validating model predictions. Individuals inhabiting regions with high genomic offset are expected to experience increased levels of physiological stress as a result of climate change, but documenting such stress can be challenging in systems where experimental manipulations are not possible. One increasingly common method for documenting physiological costs associated with stress in individuals is to measure the relative length of telomeres—the repetitive regions on the caps of chromosomes that are known to shorten at faster rates in more adverse conditions. Here we combine models of genomic offsets with measures of telomere shortening in a migratory bird, the yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia), and find a strong correlation between genomic offset, telomere length and population decline. While further research is needed to fully understand these links, our results support the idea that birds in regions where climate change is happening faster are experiencing more stress and that such negative effects may help explain the observed population declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population declines of spotted seatrout Cynoscion nebulosus have reached levels that warrant management action in Louisiana, USA waters. As regulatory adjustments are necessary to recover the stock, we evaluated the viability of recovery options while gathering preference data from respondents through three survey modes. The modes applied were: (1) a series of public scoping meetings, (2) a probability-based sample of fishing license-holders, and (3) an open-access online survey. Among survey modes, significant differences were seen in avidity, typical harvest, and perceptions of the fishery, indicating that we captured responses from three distinct user groups. Despite these differences, several common themes emerged among all three survey types. Respondents in all survey types indicated strong levels of support for regulations decreasing allowable harvest relative to regulations at the time of survey execution. Specifically, our study presents a viable recovery scenario while accounting for the preferences of multiple user groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite emigrations' adverse impacts on several EU Member States, especially in Central Eastern Europe, topics like brain drain and depopulation have received relatively little attention at EU level compared to concerns associated with free movement and immigration. This article offers an answer to why this is so. Drawing on agenda-setting theory, it argues that the institutional framework of the EU both inhibits and disincentivises attempts to turn emigration into an EU level topic. Seen through the lens of the EU policy, regulating emigration becomes a matter of cohesion policy, which makes it both difficult and unattractive to lobby. To assess the argument empirically, the article draws on elite interviews with national and EU policymakers and document analysis from 2010 to 2023. The analysis reveals a structural bias of the EU and offers an example of how pertinent political issues fail to become EU topics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text. BACKGROUND: Policy changes to Mohs micrographic surgery board certification eligibility and population shifts in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic have significant implications for the accessibility of Mohs micrographic surgeons across the United States. OBJECTIVE: To examine the geographic distribution of micrographic surgery providers considering recent population trends and assess the impact of certification eligibility changes and population shifts on accessibility. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Medicare claims data were utilized to identify micrographic surgery providers. Surgeon densities were calculated per 100,000 people by county and state. Population changes were analyzed using US census data. RESULTS: Practicing micrographic surgeons were concentrated in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. Overall, 80.4% of counties lacked micrographic surgery providers, with rural areas being the most underserved. Population changes varied among states. CONCLUSION: Shifts in micrographic surgery certification requirements, US population distribution, and micrographic surgeon location emphasize challenges in accessibility, especially in rural areas across the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Plains Spotted Skunk (Spilogale interrupta) historically occurred across parts of the eastern and midwestern United States west of the Mississippi River. Following perceived population declines across much of its range, efforts to assess populations of this species have increased. Here, we report novel records of S. interrupta from this area of south Texas for the first time since 1961. This rediscovery demonstrates the persistence of this species in an underreported portion of its range. This information is useful for better understanding the distribution and population status of S. interrupta in Texas and broadly throughout North America and is crucial for future applied conservation policy efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many species use temperature as a cue to time certain life events. Such phenological events can be particularly sensitive to climate change. In amphibians, seasonal migration events between ponds and winter habitats are crucial to ensure reproduction. Therefore, shifts in phenological events – called phenological shifts – can significantly affect the persistence of amphibian populations, especially when induced by climate change. We used citizen science data collected during the spring migration of the Common Toad (Bufo bufo) from 1981 until 2020 to: (i) estimate the phenological shift, (ii) determine consistency of these changes within the studied region, and (iii) relate its temporal variation with changes in temperature. The results revealed an advancement in the peak migration of 3.1 days per decade. This shift was consistent across all populations in Flanders, indicating a regional effect that is most likely due to climate change. This reasoning is supported by the temperature-based model, which indicates that earlier migration occurs in warmer years. Nonetheless, significant local variations persist in the timing of spring migration. Our results highlight the importance of studying in detail the timing of spring migration and its variability, as it may elucidate mechanisms underlying trends in population decline at both national and international scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, we found that the frequency and intensity of daytime–nighttime compound hot extremes (HEs) in the mid‐high latitudes of Asia (MHA) are expected to increase. The most significant increase is anticipated under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5‐8.5, while the smallest increase is expected under SSP1‐2.6. Notably, unlike the decreasing trends of independent HEs since 2050 under the high emission scenarios, the compound HEs, which comprise the largest proportion, are expected to continuously increase and intensify. To better understand the impact of these changes on human society, we also focused on changes in population exposed to HEs. The findings reveal that population exposure to compound and nighttime HEs is projected to increase most rapidly under SSP3‐7.0, with estimates indicating increases of 10.06 and 3.80 times, respectively, by the end of the century. The most significant increases are expected in the mid‐latitudes, where changes in HEs are most pronounced. Climate change is the primary driver behind the rising population exposure to compound and nighttime HEs, with its impact expected to grow over time. Conversely, exposure to daytime HEs is primarily influenced by population changes, particularly in urban areas. Therefore, effective climate change mitigation and adaptive strategies are crucial to reducing future population exposure to HEs in MHA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wild animals typically organize activity around a 24-h day and daily timing across the year is optimized for both survival and reproductive success. Among-individual variation in chronotype, where individuals differ in when they begin or end their active day relative to a cue such as photoperiod, often exists within a population. Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors contribute to this variation and activity patterns may change across and within different life-history stages as energetic investment changes. Here we describe population level changes in free-living female great tit (Parus major) activity patterns of onset and offset of activity as well as assess variation and repeatability in daily activity both within- and across-breeding stages. We fitted individual females with accelerometers to track activity prior to nest building through chick rearing. Prior to clutch initiation females began their active day before sunrise, however, in the days prior to laying their first egg, activity was delayed until after sunrise. Females ended activity prior to sunset across the monitoring period and earliest during egg laying and incubation. In addition, females exhibited greater among- and within-individual variance in activity during parental care. Female daily activity was moderately repeatable within breeding stages and strongly covaried across several breeding stages. These findings expand our understanding of individual variation in activity patterns during reproduction and the potential fitness implications of chronotype in wild animals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study's relevance lies in understanding how changes in the population composition of Kazakhstan affect the development of Kazakh national identity. The purpose of the work is to cover the problem of the influence of the ethnodemographic situation in post-Soviet Kazakhstan on the process of national building. The study employed a range of analytical techniques, including content analysis of policy documents and media reports, structured interviews, ethnographic fieldwork, and comparative analysis of ethnodemographic data from multiple cities. These methods were supported by a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2021–2022. The article explores Kazakhstan's national building concept, comparing ethnodemographic shifts from the Soviet era to independence. The article is valuable for researchers studying how demographic changes affect Kazakh national identity and domestic politics in a multiethnic context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species ranges are dynamic, experiencing expansions, contractions or shifts in response to habitat changes driven by extrinsic factors such as climate change or human activities. While existing research examines the genetic consequences of spatial processes, few studies integrate species‐specific traits to analyse how habitat changes affect co‐existing species. In this study, we address this gap by investigating how genetic diversity patterns vary among species with different traits (such as generation length, population density and dispersal) experiencing similar habitat changes. Using spatial simulations and a simpler panmictic population model, we investigate the temporal genetic diversity in refugium populations undergoing range expansion of their habitat, followed by stationary and contraction periods. By varying habitat contraction speed and species traits, we identified three distinct temporal dynamics of genetic diversity during contraction: (i) a decrease in genetic diversity, (ii) an initial increase followed by a decrease and (iii) a continuous increase throughout the contraction period. We show that genetic diversity trajectories during population decline can be predicted by comparing sampled population diversity to equilibrium values expected under expanded and contracted habitat ranges. Our study also challenges the belief that high genetic diversity in a refugium population is due to a recent and rapid habitat loss. Instead, we found contrasting effects of contraction speed on genetic diversity depending on the interaction between species‐specific traits and the dynamics of habitat change. Finally, using simulated genetic data, we found that demographic histories inferred from effective population size estimates may vary across species, even when they experience similar habitat changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation successes in Europe have sparked the recovery of apex predators, which may affect the populations of mesopredators. The mesopredator release hypothesis (MRH) predicts that a decline in apex predators triggers a 'release' of mesopredators from suppression.We expanded the MRH to include predictions of inverse responses following increases in apex predator abundance or distribution. We examined European mesopredator responses to changes in apex predator populations and evaluated the extended MRH's explanatory power.We examined the results of 47 studies on European predators for supporting evidence, mixed evidence, no evidence, or contrasting evidence for the extended MRH.Out of 38 apex predator – mesopredator pairings, 10 predominantly supported the extended MRH, while others provided limited or no support. In 23 instances across 17 pairings, mesopredator responses contradicted predictions. Initial findings suggest the extended MRH better predicts mesopredator responses in pairings with intermediate to large body size differences and in pairings where mesopredators primarily hunt.Our results reveal non‐uniform mesopredator responses to changing apex predator populations. This emphasises the complexity of predator interactions, which extends beyond suppression. We suggest the MRH's scope is more restricted than previously thought, cautioning against overreliance on the MRH as a default expectation for European mesopredator responses to apex predator population changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the turn of the twentieth century, the White business community of Gonzales, a small town in central Texas, envisioned a bright future for the town. It imagined Gonzales as an important town, civilized, progressive, and ethno-racially defined, with the White community—mostly Anglo Texans and German Texans—as protagonists, and African Texans and Mexican Texans as extras. At the time, the region was undergoing major economic, technological, and demographic changes, including the influx of European and Mexican immigrants. Together with a more independent African Texan community, these changes challenged the dominant southern narrative and strengthened both an emerging Progress narrative and several counter-narratives related to historical celebrations such as Decoration Day, Juneteenth, and 16 de septiembre. In this article, I study the White community's efforts to strengthen an ethno-racially defined, business-oriented community. These efforts involved not only specific business initiatives, but also violence against and marginalization of minorities, as well as a substantial rewriting of the narrative that defined Gonzales as a place. Zooming in on Gonzales makes apparent the ways in which the White community had to continuously modify itself and its vision of Gonzales to maintain power. The case study offers insights into broader issues relating to uses of history and place, and how narratives shape, and are shaped by, ethno-racial dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Incorporating stochasticity into ecological modeling is vital for understanding the structure and function of ecological systems, but stochasticity has been challenging to consistently introduce into foundational ecological theory. The Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (herein SSA) provides a key method to represent demographic stochasticity, but due to its foundational assumptions is inadequate for problems involving intra‐population variation and extrinsically/environmentally‐driven rapid changes in demographic rates. Two recent extensions to the SSA address these limitations: one augments the SSA with individual‐linked trait distributions that let us track trait changes across individuals and populations and the other introduces a methodological innovation to allow demographic rates to change between events; in four case studies we demonstrate the utility of these advances and highlight that simultaneously integrating both extensions into a single framework allows us to tackle a new class of ecological and evolutionary questions that have typically not been explored in continuous time modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Disturbance events can alter a community's association patterns, which can influence mating tactics. The St. Johns River (SJR) bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops erebennus) community was impacted by the 2013–2015 unusual mortality event (UME), caused by cetacean morbillivirus, through mortality and social network changes. We analyzed male alliance stability and behavior from April 2011 through March 2017 with respect to the UME. During the UME, 12 first‐order alliance dyads ended due to a partner's death or disappearance. Alliance tactics varied: forming second‐order alliances (n = 21 alliances; teams of first‐order alliances), forming first‐order alliances (n = 13 alliances) or remaining unallied after an alliance dissolved (n = 8 individuals). During‐ and post‐UME, fewer allied males formed second‐order alliances (55%) compared to pre‐UME (68%). While the UME likely indirectly influenced alliance behavior through demographic changes, female presence and breeding season consistently influenced alliance associations and consortships (cooperatively flanking a female), indicating a reproductive function for SJR alliances. Increased consortships when a second‐order partner was present suggests second‐order alliances may provide consortship support against rival males. These results enhance our understanding of multilevel alliance reproductive benefits and demonstrate the adaptability of male mating tactics in response to disturbances resulting in demographic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary society faces unprecedented challenges—from rapid technological evolution to climate change and demographic tensions—compelling organisations to anticipate the future for informed decision-making. This case study aimed to design a digital system for end-users called the Time Machine, which enables a generative artificial intelligence (GAI) system to produce prospective future scenarios based on the input information automatically, proposing hypotheses and prioritising trends to streamline and make the formulation of future scenarios more accessible. The system's design, development, and testing progressed through three versions of prompts for the OpenAI GPT-4 LLM, with six trials conducted involving 222 participants. This iterative approach allowed for gradual adjustment of instructions given to the machine and encouraged refinement. Results from the six trials demonstrated that the Time Machine is an effective tool for generating future scenarios that promote debate and stimulate new ideas in multidisciplinary teams. Our trials proved that GAI-generated scenarios could foster discussions on +70% of generated scenarios with appropriate prompting, and more than half included new ideas. In conclusion, large language models (LLMs) of GAI, with suitable prompt engineering and architecture, have the potential to generate useful future scenarios for organisations, transforming future intelligence into a more accessible and operational resource. However, critical use of these scenarios is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security is crucial for national stability and public welfare. Since the 21st century, China's grain production has been significantly influenced by the rapid process of urbanization. In this context, this paper systematically measures the multidimensional coupling patterns and dynamic coupling processes between urbanization and grain production from 2000 to 2022, and preliminarily summarizes the complex coupling mechanisms within the Chinese context. The goal is to provide scientific references for achieving high-quality coordinated development of urbanization and grain production in China. The study reveals the following key findings: (1) The coupling relationship between urbanization and grain production exhibits both regional heterogeneity and temporal variability, demonstrating specific levels of coupling and dynamic processes under distinct spatiotemporal conditions. (2) Between 2000 and 2022, both urbanization and grain production patterns in China underwent significant reconstruction, with the coupling coordination level displaying a long-term spatial pattern of "high in the north, low in the south; high in the east, low in the west." Although there is an overall upward trend in coupling coordination states, spatial imbalances and dimensional heterogeneity persist. (3) Since the beginning of the 21st century, the dynamic coupling processes between provincial urbanization and grain production have primarily manifested as two types: simultaneous increase (with urbanization outpacing grain production) and urban increase accompanied by grain production decrease. Various dynamic coupling types exhibit significant spatial clustering, and the multidimensional dynamic coupling processes reveal notable similarities. (4) The evolution of coupling states demonstrates an overall trend of optimization, with clear bidirectional migration trends observed in coupling dynamics, primarily transitioning from simultaneous increase (urbanization outpacing grain production) to urban increase with grain production decrease, and vice versa. (5) The formation of the complex coupling relationship between urbanization and grain production in the Chinese context is fundamentally influenced by changes in population quantity and structure between urban and rural areas, shifts in land use, economic transformation, regional specialization, technological interactions, and factor mobility. These influences exhibit significant negative effects in the domains of population, land, and economy, while showcasing notable positive effects in terms of technology and factor mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on an analysis of parliamentary debates and party manifestos from 2000 to 2022 in three EU countries of emigration, this article responds to the following question: How emigration is discussed in the political discourse, by whom and why? The research on Poland, Portugal and Romania reveals that parties of the left and right address the societal impacts of emigration whilst simultaneously acknowledging the appreciation of citizens of EU freedoms. Tackling this conundrum, parties call for domestic demarcation for an issue that is partially European. They advocate for state intervention to improve working and living conditions and express concern for the sustainability of the national community responding to demographic changes. The variation amongst the case countries is evident in the dominance of a rightist framing in Central and Eastern Europe, emphasizing state intervention and concerns for the nation, and a leftist framing in Southern Europe, advocating solely for state intervention into the economy. Differently structured party systems and strength of cleavages explain this variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amidst global demographic shifts, China's negative population growth since 2022 underscores the urgent need for population-adaptive public service equilibrium. This study assesses the coupling coordination degrees between population and public service (P-PS CCD) across 1733 Chinese counties for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, employing the Geographical Detector Model (GDM) to examine influencing factors. The findings reveal consistently low P-PS CCD levels, indicating a delayed response of public service systems to population trends and significant spatial disparities influenced substantially by administrative factors. This research offers valuable insights for countries and regions experiencing or about to experience similar population changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theory suggests that the meaning of identity categories can vary across populations and change with time. By implication, the analytical usefulness of a given category as a measure of ethnic identity can also change, varying along with its cognitive and social usefulness to the examined population. In a prior study, we claimed that the usefulness of different measures of ethnic identity in Ukraine had changed in response to a revolution and the initiation of violent conflict with Russia in 2014. We now test this theory with new data on a new cataclysm, Russia's 2022 full‐blown invasion of Ukraine. Our analysis confirms that international conflict enhances the usefulness of categories related to external delimitation from foreigners while rendering less useful those pertaining to internal differentiation in Ukrainian society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China is currently at a turning point as its total population has started to decline, and therefore faces issues related to caring for an ageing population, which will require an increase in Total Health Expenditure (THE). Therefore, the ability to forecast China's future THE is essential. Methods: We developed two THE System Dynamics (SD) models using Stella Architect 3.4 to simulate China's THE from 2000 to 2060. The constant prices THE SD model estimates THE under low, medium, and high Total Fertility Rate (TFR) scenarios. The current prices THE SD model serves as a robust calibration check. In addition, we developed a new total Gross Domestic Production (GDP) forecast model to estimate THE/GDP over the same period. Results: Our simulation results reveal a significant upward trend in China's THE from 2000 to 2060. Specifically, under the low TFR scenario, THE is projected to reach approximately $33.4 trillion in 2015 constant USD by 2060. However, with the introduction of efficiency impact factors, THE is expected to fall to around $8.6 trillion by 2060. Additionally, the per capita Health Expenditure is anticipated to rise from $102 in 2000 to roughly $30,800 by 2060, though it could see a decrease to nearly $7,900 with efficiency improvements. Our GDP forecast for 2060 is nearly $87 trillion, with THE to GDP ratio expected to be about 9.7%. In our scenario analysis, as TFR increases, the growing new births and decreased ageing rate are expected to lead to a rise in THE and a decrease in per capita Health Expenditure. Conclusion: The efficiency of THE utilization needs to be improved. Increasing TFR can help alleviate population decline and ageing to some extent. Enhancing workforce productivity and sustained economic growth is needed to counteract the challenges posed by an ageing population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large carnivores such as the lion are declining across Africa, in part because their large herbivore prey is declining. There is consensus that increased protection from prey depletion will be necessary to reverse the decline of lion populations, but few studies have tested whether increased protection is sufficient to reverse the decline, particularly in the large, open ecosystems where most lions remain. Here, we used an integrated population model to test whether lion demography and population dynamics were measurably improved by increased protection. We used data from monitoring of 358 individuals from 2013 to 2021 in the Greater Kafue Ecosystem, where prior research showed that lions were strongly limited by prey depletion, but protection increased in several well‐defined areas beginning in 2018. In some other areas, protection decreased. In areas with high protection, lion fecundity was 29% higher, and mean annual apparent survival (φ) was 8.3% higher (with a minimum difference of 6.0% for prime‐aged adult females and a maximum difference of 11.9% for sub‐adult males). These demographic benefits combined to produce likely population growth in areas with high protection (λ̂$$ \hat{\lambda} $$ = 1.085, 90% CI = 0.97, 1.21), despite likely population decline in areas with low protection (λ̂$$ \hat{\lambda} $$ = 0.970, 90% CI = 0.88, 1.07). For the ecosystem as a whole, population size remained relatively constant at a moderate density of 3.74 (±0.49 SD) to 4.13 (±0.52 SD) lions/100 km2. With the growth observed in areas with high protection, the expected doubling time was 10 years. Despite this, recovery at the scale of the entire ecosystem is likely to be slow without increased protection; the current growth rate would require 50 years to double. Our results demonstrate that increased protection is likely to improve the reproduction and population growth rate of lions at a large scale within an unfenced ecosystem that has been greatly affected by poaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how population change is associated with changes in sociodemographics and economic outcomes across diverse geographic contexts in the United States from 2000 to 2020. Using Census Tract-level data and generalized additive models (GAMs), we found that communities experiencing population growth showed significant improvements in socioeconomic indicators: for example, a 50% population increase in Northeast metropolitan non-coastal areas was associated with a $10,062 rise [95% confidence interval (CI) = $9,181, $10,944] in median household income. Conversely, areas with population decline faced increasing challenges to community composition: communities experiencing a 50% population decline in West coastal metropolitan areas saw their median age increase by 2.556 years (95% CI = 2.23, 2.89 years), indicating an accelerated aging population. We observed a positive relationship between population growth and local economic growth, with areas experiencing population decline or slow growth showing below-average economic growth. While population change alone explained 10.1% of the variance in county-level GDP growth, incorporating sociodemographic shifts alongside population change using a partial least squares regression (PLSR) more than doubled the explanatory power to 21.4%. Overall, we often found the strength of relationships and sometimes the direction varied by geographic context: coastal areas showed distinct patterns from inland regions, and metropolitan areas responded differently than rural ones. For instance, the percentage of owner-occupied housing was negatively associated with population growth in metropolitan areas, but positively associated in non-metropolitan areas. Our research provides valuable insights for policymakers and planners working to address community changes, particularly in the context of anticipated climate-induced migration. The results suggest that strategies for maintaining economic vitality need to consider not just population retention, but also demographic profiles and socioeconomic opportunities across different geographic contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The increased severity of extreme weather and anticipated climate change has intensified heat stress-related mortality worldwide. This study examines the historical short-term effects of heat on mortality in Alentejo, Portugal's warmest region, and projects it up to the end of the century. Methods: Using data from 1980 to 2015 during warm seasons (May-September), the association between daily mortality by all-causes and mean temperature was examined following a case time series design, applied at both regional and subregional scales. Projections for daily temperatures were obtained from regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). We also examined temporal shifts in mortality considering potential long-term and seasonal adaptative responses to heat. We then quantified the yearly effects of heat by calculating absolute and relative excess mortality from 1980 to 2015, specifically during the heatwave of 2003 (July 27 to August 15), and in future projections at 20-year intervals through 2100. Results: The analysis revealed a significant rise in mortality risk at temperatures exceeding a minimum mortality temperature (MMT) of 19.0 °C, with an exponential trend and delayed effects lasting up to 5 days. The risk increased by 413% at the maximum extreme temperature of 36.6 °C. From 1980 to 2015, 2.32% of total deaths, equating to over 5,296 deaths, were heat-associated. No significant shifts over time were noted in the population's response to heat. Future projections, without adaptation and demographic changes, show a potential increase in mortality by 15.88% under a "no mitigation policy" scenario by 2100, while mitigation measures could limit the rise to 6.61%. Conclusion: Results underscore the urgent need for protective health policies to reduce regional population vulnerability and prevent premature heat-related deaths across the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deciphering how natural selection emerges from demographic differences among genotypes, and reciprocally how evolution affects population dynamics, is key to understanding population responses to environmental stress. This is especially true in non-trivial ecological scenarios, such as programmed cell death (PCD) in unicellular organisms, which can lead to massive population decline in response to stress. To understand how selection may operate on this trait, we exposed monocultures and mixtures of two closely related strains of the microalga Dunalliela salina, one of which induces PCD, to multiple cycles of hyper-osmotic shocks, and tracked demography and selection throughout. Population dynamics were consistent between mixtures and monocultures, suggesting that selection on PCD does not involve strong ecological interactions. The PCD-inducing strain was maintained throughout the experiment despite an initial decline, by a combination of fast population rebound following each decline, and density-dependent competition dynamics near the stationary phase that were independent of these initial population fluctuations. As a result of PCD maintenance, population decline in response to environmental stress was not counter-selected in our experiment, but persisted over 13 cycles of salinity. Our results highlight how analysing the demographic underpinnings of fitness and competition can shed light on the mechanisms underlying selection and eco-evolutionary dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Neurological disorders are a major global health concern, especially in BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), where demographic and socio-economic changes have amplified their impact. This study evaluates trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) associated with neurological diseases in these countries from 1990 to 2021, focusing on sex disparities and key risk factors. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Join point regression and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) analyses were used to assess trends in neurological disease burden. Age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, and mortality were calculated, along with DALYs, and key risk factors were analyzed. Results: China showed the largest increase in incidence (7541.89 to 8031.37 per 100,000) and prevalence (26494.85 to 28534.79 per 100,000). Mortality increased in India (21.01 to 24.27 per 100,000) and South Africa (27.66 to 30.65 per 100,000), while China showed a decline (39.59 to 37.30 per 100,000). Brazil experienced a substantial rise in DALYs (1610.65 to 42024.59). Sex disparities showed higher DALY rates for females across all nations. Conclusion: The research highlights the rising burden of neurological disorders in BRICS nations, especially in China and Brazil due to aging populations and metabolic risks. It emphasizes the need for targeted interventions in India and South Africa, where increasing mortality rates and DALYs are concerning. Effective health policies should focus on early detection, managing metabolic risks, and implementing sex-specific strategies to address these issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly altered socio-economic activities, human behaviors, and crime patterns. However, less is known about how the pandemic and associated restrictions affected cyber-enabled and traditional fraud. Here, we conducted a retrospective analysis using police-recorded crime data in the UK to examine the impact of COVID-19 restrictions and changes in human activity on fraud. Results indicate that following the onset of the lockdown, the number of recorded fraud cases increased by 28.5%, contrasting with traditional property crimes, which dropped by 28.1%. However, the lockdown did not have a significant impact on the long-term trend of fraud. With the lifting of restrictions, fraud gradually regressed to levels approaching those before the pandemic. By inspecting the effects of different government responses and changes in population mobility on various types of fraud, we found that more stringent restrictions were associated with larger increases in most types of cyber-enabled fraud, except for those that rely on offline activities, whereas the impact on traditional fraud was mixed and contingent upon specific opportunity structures. These findings overall align with the assumptions of routine activity theory and provide clear support for its applicability in fraud and cybercrime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]