2,240 results on '"discount rate"'
Search Results
2. Extracting extrapolative beliefs from market prices: An augmented present-value approach
- Author
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Cassella, Stefano, Chen, Te-Feng, Gulen, Huseyin, and Liu, Yan
- Published
- 2025
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Nexus Between Discount Rate and Industrial Performance.
- Author
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Khan, Ajab
- Subjects
DISCOUNT prices ,STOCK price indexes ,MONETARY policy ,CAPITAL market - Abstract
This study investigates the short-run responses and long-run performances of seven industries' stock indices with discount rate changes in the firms listed in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE) between 2009 and 2018. The results indicate that short-run returns react positively to discount rate reduction, excluding the oil industry and vice versa. Therefore, long-term performance responds favourably with a reduction in the discount rate. Discount rate changes affect the apparel industry the most, while the oil industry is the least on the list. This study serves potential investors for their returns against investment among these industries. Furthermore, it works as a guideline for regulators and policymakers to manage fluctuations for a stable capital market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. DIFFERENCES IN INTERTEMPORAL PREFERENCES FOR MONEY AND ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS: THE CASE OF POLAND.
- Author
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BUAA, RafaB
- Subjects
DISCOUNT prices ,INTERTEMPORAL choice ,WILLINGNESS to pay ,CONSTRUCTION cost estimates ,POLISH people - Abstract
Purpose: The main scientific purpose of the paper is twofold. At first, the author aims to determine whether there exist any significant differences between intertemporal preferences of Polish citizens for money and environmental goods as measured by elicited individual discount rates. Additionally, the purpose of the paper is to reveal the socio-economic and demographic factors influencing the abovementioned intertemporal preferences. Design/methodology/approach: The data about individual intertemporal preferences and socio-economic and demographic characteristics were collected via an online survey. To determine the respondents’ willingness to pay and their individual discount rates the stated approach was used – the conditional valuation (CV) method. In the analysis of statistical properties of data collected various statistical methods were used. The differences between estimated discount rates were investigated by employing ANOVA methods, while the influence of socio-economic and demographic factors on their level was assessed by building and estimating a multiple regression model. Findings: The main outcome of the paper is proving that the individual discount rates decline when the time frame considered is lengthened. At the same time, it has been revealed, that there exist significant differences between elicited discount rates for various types of goods analyzed – the lowest one for public environmental goods, while the highest one for private monetary benefits. Research limitations/implications: One of the limitations of the study is the disadvantage of the Multiple Price List method employed resulting in a limited number of possible discount rates elicited. Even though the respondents could have given any other value they wished, this possibility was rarely used. Practical and social implications: The estimated individual discount rates for various types of goods provide information about societal preferences regarding intertemporal choices. The outcomes of the study can be used to evaluate the efficiency of public policies regarding environmental protection, energy transformation, etc Originality/value: The studies analyzing the level of individual discount rates for various types of goods (especially environmental ones) in the case of Poland are quite rare and of limited number of respondents involved. In this study not only their levels for different goods (monetary vs environmental, private vs public) are compared, but also factors influencing them are considered and revealed. Moreover, while analyzing the willingness to pay for the abovementioned types of goods, the fact that the respondent is an inhabitant of the GZM Metropolis or not is also considered to provide information about differences in intertemporal preferences between the residents of mining regions and others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Sustainable management of produced water supply chain system: the validation of model-independent parameters for Kuwait oil company case study.
- Author
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Erfani, Tohid and AlEdan, Afrah
- Subjects
SUPPLY chain management ,WATER supply management ,GAS well drilling ,ECONOMIC impact ,WATER purification - Abstract
A substantial amount of wastewater is generated during the extraction of oil and gas. Wastewater that is generated as a result of oil and gas extraction activities is known as produced water (PW), and managing PW is one of the greatest challenges faced by the oil and gas industry. Effective management of PW requires an understanding of the complex impact it may have on both oil production and water treatment operations. Here, a numerical model has been applied to a real-world case study, that of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC), to examine the relationships among various input and output factors in PW supply chain management. Specifically, the numerical model is a multi-objective optimisation model for the management of PW supply chains that takes into account economic as well as environmental objectives. A global sensitivity analysis has also been performed to assess the economic and operational factors that can influence the management of PW in KOC. The findings of this study show that the operational costs, treatment costs and environmental impacts can be assessed and used to guide the management of the PW supply chain in KOC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Sustainable management of produced water supply chain system: the validation of model-independent parameters for Kuwait oil company case study
- Author
-
Tohid Erfani and Afrah AlEdan
- Subjects
Global sensitivity analysis ,produced water ,supply chain ,discount rate ,multiple linear regression ,Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) ,TA1-2040 - Abstract
ABSTRACTA substantial amount of wastewater is generated during the extraction of oil and gas. Wastewater that is generated as a result of oil and gas extraction activities is known as produced water (PW), and managing PW is one of the greatest challenges faced by the oil and gas industry. Effective management of PW requires an understanding of the complex impact it may have on both oil production and water treatment operations. Here, a numerical model has been applied to a real-world case study, that of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC), to examine the relationships among various input and output factors in PW supply chain management. Specifically, the numerical model is a multi-objective optimisation model for the management of PW supply chains that takes into account economic as well as environmental objectives. A global sensitivity analysis has also been performed to assess the economic and operational factors that can influence the management of PW in KOC. The findings of this study show that the operational costs, treatment costs and environmental impacts can be assessed and used to guide the management of the PW supply chain in KOC.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Sustainably Produced but Unsustainably Destroyed: Effective Price Promotion for the Sustainable Management of Unsold Inventory in Korea.
- Author
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Jung, Sojin, Lee, Stacy H., and Kim, Min Jung
- Abstract
Focusing on sustainable fashion brands' effective price promotion, this experimental study developed two sets of stimuli, 'discount' and 'disclosure' strategies, and tested consumers' evaluations of price fairness, product attractiveness, quality, and brand trust based on each strategy. Subsequently, this study compared consumers' evaluations of the discount and disclosure strategies. An analysis of 961 Korean samples revealed that a high discount rate increased price fairness and product attractiveness, and the highly promotion-focused consumers were more likely to perceive product attractiveness and quality when positive framing was presented. In the disclosure strategy, the reference point effect was prominent; when the conventional markup rate was provided, consumers showed greater price fairness, product attractiveness, and brand trust. Furthermore, it was noteworthy that disclosing conventional markup along with the firm's markup showed the same price fairness perceptions as that of a high markup rate. Built on reference point and regulatory focus fit, this study empirically proved the effectiveness of the price promotions of sustainable fashion brands to whom quality and trustworthiness are greatly important, extending the academic originality of this study. Practically, effective use of price promotion strategies can help fashion management handle inventory problems in a sustainable way without massive investment in technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. A deductive approach method for the determination of the discount rate in the assessment of special properties value [Un approccio deduttivo per la determinazione del discount rate nelle stime di immobili speciali]
- Author
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Marco Locurcio, Francesco Tajani, and Pierluigi Morano
- Subjects
discount rate ,discounted cash flow analysis ,special property ,market value ,regression analysis ,Real estate business ,HD1361-1395.5 - Abstract
With the financialization of the real estate market, the application of the income approach through the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA) for estimating the market value has significantly increased. In this income approach method, the Discount Rate (DR) is one of the factors that decisively affects the result. Despite the several procedures proposed for the estimation of the DR and the numerous parameters considered, the valuer is generally «forced» to the use of the risk premium as a corrective that takes into account the “communis aestimatio” borrowed for the assessment of the DR. Starting from these premises, the present research attempts to replicate the ordinary behavior that leads the valuer to the determination of DR and to outline a methodology that allows estimating a reliable and objective value of DR on the bases of the factors generally taken into consideration.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. The Discount Rate for Investment Analysis Applying Expected Utility.
- Author
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Baucells, Manel and Bodily, Samuel E.
- Subjects
INVESTMENT analysis ,DISCOUNT prices ,EXPECTED utility ,DISCOUNTED cash flow ,INVESTORS - Abstract
In decision analysis, expected utility of discounted cash flows is the traditional approach to incorporate risk aversion into the evaluation of a project. The choice of discount rate as well as the convergence with the beta-adjusted approach from finance have always been in question. To address this gap, we adopt a risk-sharing setup in which investors have both treasuries and the stock market as alternatives to the project. For a full utility analysis of all the investor's capital, we provide a unique discount rate that allows setting the horizon at the termination of the project. For a traditional analyst who conducts expected utility of discounted cash flows and ignores the capital not allocated to the project, we recommend an adjusted discount rate that compensates for double-counting the systematic risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
10. It Is Time to Reconsider the 3% Discount Rate.
- Author
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Cohen, Joshua T.
- Subjects
- *
DISCOUNT prices , *CONSUMPTION (Economics) , *PRICES , *HIGH-income countries , *TECHNOLOGY assessment , *MEDICAL technology - Abstract
Health technology assessment (HTA) guidance often recommends a 3% real annual discount rate, the appropriateness of which has received limited attention. This article seeks to identify an appropriate rate for high-income countries because it can influence projected cost-effectiveness and hence resource allocation recommendations. The author conducted 2 Pubmed.gov searches. The first sought articles on the theory for selecting a rate. The second sought HTA guidance documents. The first search yielded 21 articles describing 2 approaches. The "Ramsey Equation" sums contributions by 4 factors: pure time preference, catastrophic risk, wealth effect, and macroeconomic risk. The first 3 factors increase the discount rate because they indicate future impacts are less important, whereas the last, suggesting greater future need, decreases the discount rate. A fifth factor—project-specific risk—increases the discount rate but does not appear in the Ramsey Equation. Market interest rates represent a second approach for identifying a discount rate because they represent competing investment returns and hence opportunity costs. The second search identified HTA guidelines for 32 high-income countries. Twenty-two provide no explicit rationale for their recommended rates, 8 appeal to market interest rates, 3 to consistency, and 3 to Ramsey Equation factors. Declining consumption growth and real interest rates imply HTA guidance should reduce recommended discount rates to 1.5 to 2+%. This change will improve projected cost-effectiveness for therapies with long-term benefits and increase the impact of accounting for long-term drug price dynamics, including reduced prices attending loss of market exclusivity. • Health technology assessment guidance often recommends an annual discount rate of 3%, but most guidance provides no supporting rationale. The literature advances 2 approaches to identify an appropriate rate: (1) bottom up (the Ramsey Equation) sums contributing factors, but economists disagree on their values; (2) real interest rates can represent returns available from other investments, but which market rate to use is unclear. • Pragmatically, we can start with the commonly recommended 3% discount rate and consider trends suggesting recent changes to this value. Projected declines in consumption growth and observed declines in real interest rates suggest health technology assessments should now recommend a discount rate of 1.5% to the low 2% range. • Using a lower discount rate will improve projected cost-effectiveness for therapies with long-term (eg, lifetime) benefits and increase the impact of accounting for long-term drug price dynamics, including reduced prices attending loss of market exclusivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Comprehensive renovation of a multi-apartment building in Sweden: techno-economic analysis with respect to different economic scenarios.
- Author
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Boussaa, Youcef, Dodoo, Ambrose, Nguyen, Truong, and Rupar-Gadd, Katarina
- Subjects
BUILDING repair ,EXTERIOR walls ,SPACE heaters ,ENERGY industries ,ENERGY consumption ,RENEWABLE energy sources ,DISCOUNT prices - Abstract
A wider deployment of nearly zero energy buildings (NZEBs) is expected to contribute to the transition to a decarbonized and energy-efficient building sector in Europe. This study proposed an integrated energy-economic analysis to exemplify the feasibility of NZEB renovation in temperate climate. A parametric analysis was performed to identify technical building system configurations that give minimum share of renewable energy systems contributing to NZEB level. Final energy savings, global costs and cost-effectiveness of renovating a building to NZEB level are analysed, considering active and passive energy efficiency measures (EEMs). The active EEMs included efficient water taps and heat recovery ventilation, and the passive EEMs encompassed insulations to roof, exterior walls and ground floor, and improvements of windows and doors. The building had initial final energy use of 133 kWh/m
2 year for space heating, domestic hot water production (DHW) and facility electricity. The results show that NZEB level is achieved with active and passive EEMs, without renewable energy systems for scenarios with low discount rates and high future energy price escalations. The annual final energy use for space heating, DHW and facility electricity is reduced cost-effectively by 37-54%. Furthermore, increasing size of PV-system enhanced cost-effectiveness by lowering total global costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. An Optimal Monetary Policy in a Long- Run Coexistence with COVID-19.
- Author
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Bastanifar, Iman
- Subjects
MONETARY policy ,COVID-19 pandemic ,COVID-19 ,DISCOUNT prices ,DYNAMIC programming ,INFLATION targeting ,CENTRAL banking industry - Abstract
With the advent of COVID-19 health authorities of most Top high GDP countries dominated the economy. A policy response to COVID-19 pandemic, was the lockdown policy. I show that this discretionary biological health policy in a new shopping time model by dynamic programming technique, decrease the value of transaction time saved by holding additional money and increases the real balance of money during COVID-19. An optimal monetary policy rule during COVID-19 is a rule, based on that, the growth rate of banking discount rate equals the variation of case fatality risk (CFR). This rule is computed as an optimal monetary policy rule for each month of the top 15 GDP countries of the world in 2020. The results show that the rate of rapid and hasty reduction of the announced discount rates during the COVID-19 period were not optimal and would be one of the reasons for the occurrence of inflation and the failure of the inflation target policy in recent years. Therefore, I recommend a rule to determine an optimal monetary policy when our world experiences a biological shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
13. Risk Management of Affordable Rental Housing REITs: A Case Study of CICC Xiamen Anju
- Author
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Tian, Zhenbo, Wu, Xianghua, Zhang, Xiaomu, Appolloni, Andrea, Series Editor, Caracciolo, Francesco, Series Editor, Ding, Zhuoqi, Series Editor, Gogas, Periklis, Series Editor, Huang, Gordon, Series Editor, Nartea, Gilbert, Series Editor, Ngo, Thanh, Series Editor, Striełkowski, Wadim, Series Editor, Vasilev, Valentin, editor, Popescu, Cătălin, editor, Guo, Yanhong, editor, and Li, Xiaolin, editor
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
14. Economic Viability Analysis of Rooftop Solar and Vertically Mounted BAPV on a Multi-storied Commercial Building in Kolkata
- Author
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Mukherjee, Arijit, Thakur, Biswajit, Roy, Biswanath, Tatiparti, Sankara Sarma V., editor, and Seethamraju, Srinivas, editor
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
15. Does an Imaginary Trip to the Future Increase the Contribution to Climate Change Mitigation?
- Author
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Qin, Botao, Zhang, Nan, Wang, Yaru, Lee, Soocheol, editor, Zhang, Shiqiu, editor, Hong, Jong Ho, editor, Nabangchang-Srisawalak, Orapan, editor, Akao, Ken-Ichi, editor, and Resosudarmo, Budy Prasetyo, editor
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
16. Project Economics
- Author
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Thapar, Sapan, Kaushik, Brajesh Kumar, Series Editor, Kolhe, Mohan Lal, Series Editor, and Thapar, Sapan
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
17. The National Phenomenon of Profitability of Banks in the Conditions of Wartime
- Author
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Sokolovska Iryna P. and Pieikov Oleksandr V.
- Subjects
profitability of banks ,certificates of deposit ,domestic government bonds ,interest margin ,discount rate ,Business ,HF5001-6182 - Abstract
The aim of the article is to study the reasons for the profitability of the banking sector in the conditions of wartime, as well as to assess the effectiveness of the means of the State-based regulation to ensure financial stability. The theoretical approaches to the analysis of instruments of influence on indicators of stability of financial institutions in conditions of permanent external shocks are generalized. It is identified that the main factor in increasing the profitability of the banking sector of Ukraine during the wartime was the placement of excess liquidity in low-risk and high-yield financial assets, among which NBU certificates of deposit predominate. It is substantiated that the high attractiveness of these assets was formed as a result of maintaining a high level of the discount rate for a long period of time and the presence of a high interest margin on transactions with certificates of deposit. The consequences for the financial system and the economy of the phenomenon of increased profitability in conditions of low credit activity are determined. The positive consequences include an increase in the level of capitalization and financial stability of banking institutions. Among the negative ones, the inability to use the resource potential of the banking system for investment recovery of the economy is identified. The consequences of the use of instruments of fiscal redistribution of excess profits in favor of the State budget through an increase in the tax burden for banks are analyzed. Measures to equalize the yield on NBU certificates of deposit and domestic government bonds to accumulate excess liquidity and reduce lending during the wartime are proposed. The need to reorient demand from short-term to long-term government securities to cover the budget deficit in a non-emission way has been determined, which justifies the use of such a model of redistribution of financial resources accumulated by the banking system under the conditions of the wartime economy. It is emphasized that the use of this mechanism at the stage of post-wartime economic recovery will cause negative consequences in the form of the effect of crowding out private investment by the State and the slowed down economic growth.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
18. 基于试验数据的人工用材林最优轮伐期确定的研究进展.
- Author
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刘 林, 孙洪刚, 王宇华, and 张建国
- Abstract
Copyright of Forest Research is the property of Forest Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
19. 'Lying with numbers' in international arbitration against states.
- Author
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Boué, Juan Carlos
- Subjects
- *
INTERNATIONAL arbitration , *DISCOUNTED cash flow , *ARBITRATION & award , *DISPUTE resolution , *MANAGERIAL economics , *AMICI curiae - Abstract
Recent international arbitration cases, especially P&ID v Nigeria , have highlighted how easy it is for claimants—whether in treaty-based Investor–State Dispute Settlement or commercial arbitration—to advance immense claims grounded on essentially no evidence against state respondents. This largely reflects the readiness of many quantum experts to engage in the practice which Martin Wachs called 'lying with numbers' in order to misrepresent the execution risks of speculative unbuilt projects in a manner that is radically at odds with empirical data regarding such execution risks, which is exacerbated by the ignorance of many arbitrators about business economics and discounted cash flow valuation. This situation is unlikely to improve, and overall standards of candour in valuation in international arbitration will keep going down as the system will keep rewarding the act of cloaking advocacy in the guise of scientific or technical rationality in order to 'lie with numbers'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
20. ANALYSIS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF USING MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS IN UKRAINE DURING THE CRISES OF 2008-2009 AND 2019-2020
- Author
-
Alisa S. Mahdich, Oleksandr A. Zadoia, and Bohdan O. Honcharuk
- Subjects
economic crisis ,pandemic ,instruments of foreign exchange regulation ,discount rate ,devaluation ,revaluation ,foreign exchange intervention ,foreign exchange policy ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
The article is devoted to the analysis, comparison and evaluation of the effectiveness of the foreign exchange policy instruments used during the crises of 2008-2009 and 2019-2020 in Ukraine. The main types of instruments of foreign exchange regulation and the priority areas of their application were defined. The authors took under consideration the key features of the construction of the socioeconomic model of Ukraine, the geopolitical situation, and the imposition of cyclical fluctuations during the considered periods. In the course of the study, the exchange rate fluctuations of the national currency against the US dollar were monitored to determine dynamics of the devaluation and revaluation processes within the given time frames. In order to detail the regulatory foreign exchange policy, a separate analysis of the use of NBU tools within the current and long-term strategy was carried out, the differences were identified and the consequences were outlined. The conducted research showed that during both crises the discount policy, namely the change in the discount rate, was most actively used. But the changes were somewhat divergent: more aggressive liberal measures taken to reduce the discount rate during the 2019-2020 crisis appeared to be more effective compared to the crisis of 2008-2009. This is evidenced by data on changes in GDP PPP, indicating the best positive dynamics when exiting the recession during the pandemic. However, in both cases, significant devaluation was observed. In order to determine the causes and consequences of the depreciation of the national currency in relation to the US dollar and other currencies, an analysis of the balance of payments accounts was carried out by individual articles. This made it possible to indicate significant differences in the nature of the origin of these crises. The instruments of motto policy were also used with varying degrees of activity and in the opposite direction. Foreign exchange interventions in 2008-2009, in contrast to the period of 2019-2020, were used very limitedly due to the rather rapid depletion of gold and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign exchange restrictions were strengthened in 2008-2009, and liberalized in 2019-2020. As a result, it allowed to revive investment flows and improve the business climate in the country. It is also noted that against the background of general devaluation during both crises, a period of revaluation of the national currency was also observed in 2019. The analysis showed that in that case it was rather a negative phenomenon, which led to significant losses in the revenue part of the budget due to a decrease in revenues from customs payments, resulted from the inconsistent actions of the NBU and relevant ministries. Other elements of foreign exchange policy were almost not used: the degree of currency convertibility and the exchange rate regime did not change (with the exception of a short period of introduction of the exchange rate band). The same can be said about the instruments of the long-term foreign exchange policy: the order of international settlements was slightly adjusted, but not significantly; the regime of exchange rates and parities remained unchanged; the use of gold and reserve currencies was combined with the diversification of foreign exchange reserves and was mainly related to foreign exchange interventions and the fulfillment of external debt obligations. The conducted analysis allowed to identify the main directions of the foreign exchange policy of Ukraine regarding the stabilization of the economy and the achievement of sustainable economic growth. To solve this problem, it is advisable to gradually introduce foreign exchange liberalization, introduce new reforms and state projects that might improve the investment climate. It is also appropriate to de-dollarize the debts of enterprises through incentives for lending in the national currency. In the long term, it is appropriate to strengthen financial and capital markets to ensure the stability of economic growth.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. INFLUENCE OF MONETARY POLICY ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANKING SYSTEM OF UKRAINE
- Author
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Олена Кузьмак and Юлія Бондар
- Subjects
monetary policy ,banking system ,discount rate ,stability of the banking system ,banking regulations ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 ,Business ,HF5001-6182 - Abstract
The article is dedicated to the current issues of the impact of monetary policy on the development of the banking system of Ukraine in times of war. The main trends in the use of monetary policy instruments, such as changes in the discount rate, are considered, and the dynamics of capital adequacy ratios of domestic banks during wartime are analyzed. The activities and role of the National Bank of Ukraine in stabilizing the banking system during wartime are investigated. In practice, the National Bank of Ukraine has implemented a series of proactive measures to ensure the stability of the banking system. It is determined that there is an acute need to implement additional financing channels or expand credit programs through the use of preferential interest rates, compensatory instruments, guarantee resources to support veterans, relocation, land demining, energy efficiency, exports, and the processing industry.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
22. АНАЛІЗ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ВИКОРИСТАННЯ ІНСТРУМЕНТІВ ВАЛЮТНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ В УКРАЇНІ В ПЕРІОДИ КРИЗ 2008–2009 ТА 2019–2020 РОКІВ.
- Author
-
МАГДІЧ, А. С., ЗАДОЯ, О. А., and ГОНЧАРУК, Б. О.
- Abstract
The article is devoted to the analysis, comparison and evaluation of the effectiveness of the foreign exchange policy instruments used during the crises of 2008-2009 and 2019-2020 in Ukraine. The main types of instruments of foreign exchange regulation and the priority areas of their application were defined. The authors took under consideration the key features of the construction of the socioeconomic model of Ukraine, the geopolitical situation, and the imposition of cyclical fluctuations during the considered periods. In the course of the study, the exchange rate fluctuations of the national currency against the US dollar were monitored to determine dynamics of the devaluation and revaluation processes within the given time frames. In order to detail the regulatory foreign exchange policy, a separate analysis of the use of NBU tools within the current and long-term strategy was carried out, the differences were identified and the consequences were outlined. The conducted research showed that during both crises the discount policy, namely the change in the discount rate, was most actively used. But the changes were somewhat divergent: more aggressive liberal measures taken to reduce the discount rate during the 2019-2020 crisis appeared to be more effective compared to the crisis of 2008-2009. This is evidenced by data on changes in GDP PPP, indicating the best positive dynamics when exiting the recession during the pandemic. However, in both cases, significant devaluation was observed. In order to determine the causes and consequences of the depreciation of the national currency in relation to the US dollar and other currencies, an analysis of the balance of payments accounts was carried out by individual articles. This made it possible to indicate significant differences in the nature of the origin of these crises. The instruments of motto policy were also used with varying degrees of activity and in the opposite direction. Foreign exchange interventions in 2008-2009, in contrast to the period of 2019- 2020, were used very limitedly due to the rather rapid depletion of gold and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign exchange restrictions were strengthened in 2008-2009, and liberalized in 2019-2020. As a result, it allowed to revive investment flows and improve the business climate in the country. It is also noted that against the background of general devaluation during both crises, a period of revaluation of the national currency was also observed in 2019. The analysis showed that in that case it was rather a negative phenomenon, which led to significant losses in the revenue part of the budget due to a decrease in revenues from customs payments, resulted from the inconsistent actions of the NBU and relevant ministries. Other elements of foreign exchange policy were almost not used: the degree of currency convertibility and the exchange rate regime did not change (with the exception of a short period of introduction of the exchange rate band). The same can be said about the instruments of the long-term foreign exchange policy: the order of international settlements was slightly adjusted, but not significantly; the regime of exchange rates and parities remained unchanged; the use of gold and reserve currencies was combined with the diversification of foreign exchange reserves and was mainly related to foreign exchange interventions and the fulfillment of external debt obligations. The conducted analysis allowed to identify the main directions of the foreign exchange policy of Ukraine regarding the stabilization of the economy and the achievement of sustainable economic growth. To solve this problem, it is advisable to gradually introduce foreign exchange liberalization, introduce new reforms and state projects that might improve the investment climate. It is also appropriate to dedollarize the debts of enterprises through incentives for lending in the national currency. In the long term, it is appropriate to strengthen financial and capital markets to ensure the stability of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
23. A deductive approach method for the determination of the discount rate in the assessment of special properties value.
- Author
-
Locurcio, Marco, Tajani, Francesco, and Morano, Pierluigi
- Subjects
DISCOUNT prices ,REAL estate business ,MARKET value ,DISCOUNTED cash flow ,REGRESSION analysis ,RISK premiums - Abstract
Copyright of Valori e Valutazioni is the property of Societa Italiana di Estimo e Valutazione (SIEV) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
24. Macroeconomic Policies for a Sustainable World.
- Author
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Stewart, Frances
- Subjects
- *
CLIMATE change , *STANDARD of living , *TAX expenditures , *CONSUMPTION tax , *TRANSITION economies , *LOW-income countries , *HIGH-income countries , *SUSTAINABILITY - Abstract
The urgency of the climate crisis is such that it needs to inform most policy-making. It represents a major threat to human development. Yet while the existence of the crisis is generally acknowledged, this has not affected macro-economic policy even though the climate crisis has major effects on the accepted objectives of macro-economic policy, including growth and economic stability. The paper explores changes in macro-economic policy needed for sustainability which should become an intrinsic and overriding objective of policy. Implications of doing so are explored, including replacing the growth objective with green/sustainable growth, altering the measurement of GDP accordingly; greatly increasing the weight given to the well-being of future generations with implications for interest and investment rates; and reforming taxes and expenditures. Ballooning of debt is justified to support a rapid transition to a carbon-free economy. Among high-income countries, the growth objective should be questioned. Low income countries need green growth to attain reasonable living standards. Large-scale resource transfers to low income countries are essential to support green expenditures for mitigation and especially adaptation. High priorities are a change in the approach of the IMF and World Bank, and innovative financial mechanisms to support the required transfers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. XYZ Biotech: A Fictional Business Development Case Utilizing Quantitative Tools to Evaluate a New Antibody-Drug-Conjugate Opportunity for Metastatic Breast Cancer.
- Author
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York, John M., Rodriguez, Jennifer, Sepe, Kayla, and Patel, Shivan
- Subjects
BUSINESS development ,METASTATIC breast cancer ,NET present value ,PRICES ,COMPOUND annual growth rate - Abstract
Multiple considerations must be evaluated with a new acquisition or license in biopharmaceutical business development. This case utilizes a fictional company, XYZ Biotech, to illustrate the quantitative considerations in evaluating an antibody-drug combination product in the metastatic breast cancer (mBC) space. The steps shown in this case also include the development of a market model to define the potential size of the market opportunity, a weighted benefit pricing model to evaluate the present price, and a net present value model to estimate projections from the product. The case also engages multiple qualitative considerations as part of the discussion section. It concludes by offering several nuanced questions at the end to stimulate discussion around the analysis, probe additional considerations needed for a business case, and analyze what other elements or issues would drive a decision. In the appendix is a short case summary of key facts for participants to develop solutions and share in class before reviewing the case narrative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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26. Prudent aggregation of quasi-hyperbolic experts
- Author
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Dong-Xuan, Bach, Bich, Philippe, and Wigniolle, Bertrand
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- 2024
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27. Application of Life Cycle Costing in Building Energy Performance
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Jahangir, Mohammad Hossein, Alimohamadi, Reza, and Muthu, Subramanian Senthilkannan, Series Editor
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- 2023
- Full Text
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28. Cost of Capital
- Author
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Schoenmaker, Dirk, Schramade, Willem, Schoenmaker, Dirk, and Schramade, Willem
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. The Relationships Between Underpricing and Turnover: The Study of Seasoned Equity Offerings
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Chang, Chun-Ping, Tsai, Yung-Shun, Tzang, Shyh-Weir, Liu, Chih-Yun, Xhafa, Fatos, Series Editor, and Barolli, Leonard, editor
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- 2023
- Full Text
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30. Land Market Balance Computation Within the Digital Transformation
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Klymenko, Nataliia, Nehrey, Maryna, Ohorodnyk, Vira, Xhafa, Fatos, Series Editor, Hu, Zhengbing, editor, Wang, Yong, editor, and He, Matthew, editor
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- 2023
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31. Pension discount rate, executive stock-based compensation and investor sentiment
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Sun, Fang and Wei, Xiangjing
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- 2023
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32. Assessment Approaches: The Income Approach (II)
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Elena Valentina ȚILICĂ and Radu CIOBANU
- Subjects
assessment ,income approach ,discount rate ,future cash flows ,updating the cash flow method ,profit capitalization method ,terminal value ,Economic history and conditions ,HC10-1085 ,Finance ,HG1-9999 - Abstract
According to the International Assessment Standards, in order to obtain a certain type of value, the three approaches of the unanimously acknowledged and applied value may be used, that are substantiated on the economic principles of substitution, variable proportions or benefits anticipation: the cost, market and income approach. In the article hereby we present aspects concerning the income approach, which consists of setting the value of the enterprise from the perspective of taking into consideration its capacity to generate profits/earnings for its future functioning. Financially, no investment has sense than by the cash flows likely to be achieved as a result of it. Thus, it is deemed that the amount of any invested capital must be estimated in terms of the earnings brought in the future.
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- 2023
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33. The value recapture of complex urban transformation interventions: a rational procedure for the fair share of public and private benefits [Il value recapture di interventi di trasformazione urbana complessi: una procedura razionale finalizzata all’equa ripartizione dei benefici tra pubblico e privato]
- Author
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Pierluigi Morano, Francesco Tajani, and Debora Anelli
- Subjects
value recapture ,optimization model ,urban transformation feasibility ,extraordinary urbanization contribution ,public-private partnership ,risk ,discount rate ,Real estate business ,HD1361-1395.5 - Abstract
The benefits generated by the urban transformation interventions can often favour the private property owners or developers by increasing their gains (effective or potential) and therefore reducing the acquirable resources for the public city’s construction. However, due to the requirements of achieving the sustainable development targets established by the 2030 Agenda the process of the construction of the public city should appropriately address the implementation of value recapture’s principles in the assessment of the benefits generated by complex urban transformation interventions. For these reasons, tools like the Extraordinary Urbanization Contribution (EUC) – established in 2014 with the art.16, co.4 of the Italian Presidential Decree no.380/2001 – have recently gained renewed importance. Aim of the work is to provide a decision support model for the assessment of the plusvalue generated by complex urban variant intervention, in order to detect the effects that the discount rate used for representing the time and the risk in the application of the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA) for determining the transformation value, can have on the feasibility of the intervention and, consequently, on the public and private benefits. The implementation of a rational procedure based on the application of the mathematical optimization’s principles to a case study in the city of Bari (Italy), allows to highlight how the discount rate may significantly change the urban parameters from which the feasibility of the urban variant depends and the fair share of the public and private benefits. I benefici generati dagli interventi di trasformazione urbana possono spesso favorire i proprietari di immobili privati o gli imprenditori aumentandone i guadagni (effettivi o potenziali) e quindi riducendo le risorse acqui- sibili per la costruzione della città pubblica. Tuttavia, a causa delle esigenze di raggiungimento degli obiettivi di sviluppo sostenibile stabiliti dall’Agenda 2030, il processo di costruzione della città pubblica dovrebbe affrontare adeguatamente l’attuazione dei principi di “value recapture” nella valutazione dei benefici generati da interventi di trasformazione urbana complessi. Per questi motivi, strumenti come il Contributo Straordinario di Urbanizzazione (EUC) – istituito nel 2014 con l’art.16, co.4 del DPR n.380/2001 – hanno recentemente acquisito una rinnovata importanza. L’obiettivo del lavoro consiste nel fornire un modello di supporto alle decisioni per la valutazione del plusvalore generato da un intervento complesso di variante urbanistica, al fine di analizzare gli effetti che il tasso di attualizzazione – utilizzato per rappresentare il tempo e il rischio nell’applicazione della Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA) –, può avere sulla fattibilità dell’intervento e, di conseguenza, sui benefici pubblici e privati. L’implementa- zione di una procedura razionale basata sull’applica- zione dei principi dell’ottimizzazione matematica ad un caso studio nella città di Bari (Italia), consente di evidenziare come il tasso di attualizzazione possa modificare significativamente i parametri urbanistici da cui dipende la fattibilità della variante urbanistica e la corretta ripartizione dei benefici pubblici e privati.
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- 2023
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34. The role of a discount rate in a transmission mechanism and its influence on the deposits market
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O. Maistrenko
- Subjects
discount rate ,transmission mechanism ,monetary policy ,deposits ,Business ,HF5001-6182 ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
The article focuses on the analysis of the dynamics of the discount rate as a key monetary policy tool. It examines how the discount rate, through the transmission mechanism, influences fluctuations in interbank interest rates and the bank deposit market. The study examines the indicators of Ukraine's banking sector over the past 5 years, considering the impact of external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and large-scale armed aggression by Russia. These factors have resulted in inflation and interest rate growth in developed countries, a stronger US dollar, decreased business activity, and negative business expectations, all of which significantly impact Ukraine's small open economy. Consequently, the National Bank of Ukraine has implemented measures to stimulate creditworthiness, support entrepreneurship during lockdowns, and ensure access to profitable long-term financing, while also maintaining stability in the banking system during crises. The study analyzes the effects of the regulator's policy of increasing the discount rate and curtailing anti-crisis measures to curb inflation, which have had positive consequences during the most challenging crisis periods and the initial stages of economic recovery. It also highlights macroeconomic measures and restrictions imposed by the central bank to stabilize the economy in the face of a full-scale Russian military invasion, including state interventions to offset costs in priority areas of the economy. Despite the ongoing impact of tight monetary policy on the domestic market, a potential slowdown in inflation, stabilization of the exchange rate, and the funding market may contribute to the revival of the interbank market, bank lending, and potential revision of the discount rate and/or dollar exchange rate in the long term. The study further conducts a simulation of the balanced level of the discount rate using the classic Taylor equation, indicating the possibility of revising and gradually relaxing tight monetary conditions in 2023. However, it suggests that the rate reduction may be moderate, around 0.5-1.5 percentage points in the short term and 2 to 4 percentage points in the medium term. Overall, the study underscores the importance of the discount rate as a monetary policy tool and its implications for Ukraine's banking sector, given the external shocks and challenges faced by the country.
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- 2023
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35. Life cycle cost analysis of sustainable reinforced concrete buildings with treated wastewater, recycled concrete aggregates, and fly ash
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Abdelrahman Abushanab and Wael Alnahhal
- Subjects
Life cycle cost analysis ,Discount rate ,Treated wastewater ,Recycled concrete aggregates ,Fly ash ,Cost savings ,Technology - Abstract
The global excessive demand for concrete has resulted in a significant depletion of concrete natural resources and substantial release of carbon emissions in the environment. To tackle such challenges, treated wastewater (TWW), recycled concrete aggregates (RCA), and fly ash (FA) have recently been proposed as sustainable concrete constituents. From a management perspective, it is necessary to evaluate the cost-saving potential of incorporating TWW, RCA, and FA simultaneously in concrete applications. Accordingly, this study conducted a life cycle cost analysis over 60 years on 12 multi-story buildings with TWW, RCA, and FA. Various parameters were investigated, including the number of floors (20–70 floors), discount rate (0–10%), RCA-to-natural aggregate price ratio (50–200%), and construction-to-material price ratio (50–250%). Test results highlighted that buildings incorporating TWW, RCA, and FA showed 60.18% and 19.21% lower maintenance and life cycle costs compared to conventional buildings, respectively. Furthermore, the study showed that the highest cost savings are achieved with a discount rate of 2% or less. The achieved cost saving reveals the importance of utilizing eco-friendly alternatives to natural concrete ingredients. On the other hand, the number of floors, RCA-to-natural aggregate price ratio, and construction-to-material price ratio have negligible effects on the life cycle cost of the buildings.
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- 2023
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36. Determination of the effects and optimal thresholds of monetary policy instruments: A study of Central Bank Lending system in Kingdom of Eswatini
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Samuel Nkosinathi Dlamini and Dr Pfano Mashau
- Subjects
bank lending ,discount rate ,reserve requirement ,liquidity requirement ,Johansen cointegration approach ,Quadratic model ,Finance ,HG1-9999 ,Economic theory. Demography ,HB1-3840 - Abstract
AbstractThis paper examines the impact of monetary policy instruments such as discount rate, reserve requirement and liquidity requirement on bank credit to the private sector in the Kingdom of Eswatini. Monthly data sourced from the Central Bank of Eswatini and Eswatini Central Statistics Office is used for the period January 2000 to December 2017. Using the Johansen cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model, our results show that: there is one cointegration in the model and the current levels of the discount rate, reserve requirement and liquidity requirement bear a negative and significant effect to bank credit to the private sector. This indicates that the three instruments are not supportive to economic growth and they are not optimal to stimulate credit. Applying the Quadratic approach, findings of this study reveal that the optimal monetary policy mix (thresholds) to stimulate bank credit to the private sector while maintaining inflation within reasonable levels is 5.42% for the discount rate, 4.03% for the reserve requirement, 12.48% for the liquidity requirement. The study recommends that the Central Bank of Eswatini should always take into account the existence of trade-off in monetary policy instruments results in order to stimulate bank lending to the private sector.
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- 2023
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37. Economic valuation of the ecosystem of the high Andean hydrographic basin tributary of the Chumbao River, through multicriteria analysis
- Author
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A. I. Barrial-Lujan, G. Rodríguez, M. L. Huamán-Carrión, F. Espinoza-Montes, D. Barrial-Acosta, M. C. Delgado Laime, J. C. Arevalo-Quijano, W. G. Castro-Paniagua, C. Barrial-Lujan, and D. D. Reynoso-Canicani
- Subjects
environmental assets ,discount rate ,hierarchical analysis ,paired comparison ,ecosystem valuation ,Science ,Biology (General) ,QH301-705.5 ,Zoology ,QL1-991 ,Botany ,QK1-989 - Abstract
Abstract Environmental wealth is the main basis of the social, cultural and economic development of a country, but if there is an absence of the valuation of these natural resources, it can lead to a disproportionate usufruct that causes the deterioration of the ecosystem and even collateral effects of human health. This research aimed to know the total economic value of the ecosystem of the high Andean water basin tributary of the Chumbao River, located between 2000 to 4800 meters above sea level belonging to the province of Andahuaylas, Apurimac region in Perú. The valuation procedure consisted of using the analytical method of multicriteria valuation applying the concept of Total Economic Value, which involved direct and indirect uses related to environmental assets, in which a collective panel of people from different training disciplines (experts) participated, which were made up of researchers, engineers, public officials, farmers and ecologists who had extensive knowledge about the environmental asset. of the geographical area in reference; and once the paired comparison survey was done, the total economic value was quantified up to three amounts, so the respondents were formed into three statistically significant segments (SIG
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- 2023
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38. Technical and Economic Analysis of the Use of Electricity Generated by a BIPV System for an Educational Establishment in Poland.
- Author
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Kurz, Dariusz, Głuchy, Damian, Filipiak, Michał, and Ostrowski, Dawid
- Subjects
- *
ELECTRIC power consumption , *BUILDING-integrated photovoltaic systems , *RENEWABLE energy sources , *ENERGY consumption , *ENVIRONMENTAL protection , *BICYCLE stores , *ELECTRIC power production , *PHOTOVOLTAIC power systems , *SUPERVISORY control & data acquisition systems - Abstract
In the face of ongoing climate changes and the current geopolitical situation, Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are continuously gaining popularity in many countries. Objectives related to environmental protection and the use of RES set by different countries all over the world, as well as by the European Union (EU), are becoming priorities for many. The increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems has been growing steadily for several years, leading to the creation of new systems accompanying PV installations; this phenomenon has also been observed in Poland. This paper presents a photovoltaic system in the form of a bicycle shed next to a school building as an example of building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) without connection to the power grid. It was shown that the energy consumption profile should be properly correlated with the production profile, otherwise significant losses occur. Alternative methods to improve the correlation of production and energy consumption by using SCADA systems or building automation to properly manage the electricity generation and consumption installation were also proposed. Furthermore, it was shown that adopting a fixed discount rate in financial analyses can distort the picture of real profits. An analysis of the changes in the NPV ratio using variable discount rates was carried out when analyzing the entire life of the solar plant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
- Full Text
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39. Temporal discounting in later life.
- Author
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Kulati, Ellam, Myck, Michał, and Pasini, Giacomo
- Subjects
- *
INCOME , *OLDER people , *RATIONAL choice theory , *RETIREMENT age , *MATHEMATICAL ability , *MARITAL status - Abstract
• We use choice tasks responses from Poland to elicit individual time preferences. • The sample is representative of the Polish 50+ population. • Data are collected as part of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe. • Quasi-hyperbolic time discounting model best fits our data. • Numeracy, employment and marital status along with household income correlate with patience. We explore intertemporal decision-making in later life by looking at temporal preference heterogeneity among older individuals. Using choice tasks responses from Poland collected as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we elicit individual time preferences using competing discounting specifications. With the formulation that best fits our data, we examine which individual characteristics drive the estimated heterogeneity in later life time preferences. Individual numerical abilities, labour and marital status, as well as household income turn out to be significant correlates of patience. Our analysis also provides methodological guidance for instrument design with the aim of eliciting time preferences in a general survey setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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- View/download PDF
40. Discounted Cash Flow: theoretical and practical aspects of its use.
- Author
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Tibúrcio Silva, César Augusto
- Subjects
DISCOUNTED cash flow ,FREE cash flow ,CAPITAL costs ,VALUE creation ,MARKET value - Abstract
Objective: This text presents an in-depth analysis of the theoretical and practical aspects of the discounted cash flow method and its applicability in evaluation processes. Method: As it is a theoretical article, it draws on extensive literature and knowledge accumulated by the author over the years, much of it in undergraduate and postgraduate disciplines. Results or Discussion: After a thorough exploration of the two pillars of the method - the discount rate and the cash flow - it becomes evident that the main methods widely adopted in the literature offer consistent results, supported by solid theoretical foundations. I bring a critical discussion about three crucial aspects for the practical application of this method. The first aspect highlights the use of multiples, revealing how this approach can, in certain cases, introduce significant distortions in the evaluation results. Next, I address the issue of the capital cost of free cash flow, demonstrating the importance of calculating this metric on the correct basis, using market values, instead of relying on historical values. Finally, I explore how the method can be effectively used in the value creation process, highlighting how this capacity can be perceived through the method's generic expressions. Contributions: It is clear that, despite advances in research, there is still ample space in the literature for a more detailed and specific analysis of the challenges and opportunities associated with the use of discounted cash flow. This text reinforces the continued importance of this approach in the field of financial evaluation and highlights the need for constant improvement to guarantee solid and reliable results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. МОНЕТАРНА ПОЛІТИКА НАЦІОНАЛЬНОГО БАНКУ УКРАЇНИ: ПОТРІБНІ РАДИКАЛЬНІ ЗМІНИ
- Author
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C. C., Пирога
- Abstract
The article analyzes the effectiveness of the NBU's monetary policy. During the period of independence, the National Bank never performed any of the functions stipulated by law. The main instruments of monetary and credit policy at the disposal of the central bank are not used as intended, and therefore do not ensure the performance of the functions entrusted to the National Bank of Ukraine, in particular: they do not ensure the stability of the hryvnia exchange rate, price stability, accelerated socio-economic development of the state and the adopted inflation level. The monetary and credit policy of the National Bank must be radically changed to ensure the implementation provisions of Art. 6 of the Law of Ukraine 'On the National Bank of Ukraine'. The central bank's efforts must be coordinated with the government's efforts, and the central bank's monetary policy must be coordinated with the government's fiscal policy. In the paper, we propose to change the monetary policy instruments of the NBU in order to direct it to the support of the real sector of the economy and the stability of the exchange rate. The proposed changes provide for the establishment of refinancing rates up to 2%, placement of deposit certificates -2% (minus 2%). At the same time, it is necessary to make changes to the Tax Code of Ukraine regarding the introduction of progressive floating rates of taxation of the profit of financial institutions, limitation of the right to deduct losses from the tax base of financial institutions in certain cases... For the actual production of goods with a high added value, provide the reduction of the tax base for the part invested in production, and set the tax rate for the distributed part of the profit at the level of the personal income tax rate. Nontraditional methods of stimulating development are also proposed, in particular the purchase of government securities. The marginal value of government debt securities should be limited to 2-3% of GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
42. Assessment of the discount rate and determination of the fair value of the company in strategic investment analysis
- Author
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V. S. Levin
- Subjects
value-based management ,strategic investment analysis ,discount rate ,fair value ,methods and models ,valuation ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
In the conditions of global uncertainty, the conditions of the external and internal environment of the functioning of companies and sectors of the economy are significantly changing. The emergence of new challenges and threats requires the adjustment of existing development strategies, makes relevant methods and models for assessing the fair value of enterprises in the real sector of the economy. The purpose of this study is to investigate and systematize modern approaches to estimating the discount rate when using them in strategic investment analysis based on the concept of company value management. At the first stage of the study, the following models were used for evaluation: weighted average cost of capital, valuation of financial assets, Gordon’s dividend model, return on equity, the multiplier method and the expert method. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods and models used are revealed. The most preferred option is the discount rate equal to 8.55% and calculated according to the financial asset valuation model. At the second stage, the fair value of shares and capital of PJSC Severstal was assessed in the following sequence: calculating the value of shares based on the Gordon dividend model; using free cash flow indicators, weighted average cost of capital and the cash flow discounting method; analyzing the sensitivity of the company’s share price depending on the growth rate of free cash flow and weighted average cost of capital; comparison of the results of the evaluation of the fair value of the shares of the analyzed company obtained by various methods; preparation of conclusions on the fair value of shares and the investment attractiveness of the company. The main results of the study are the author’s methodology for assessing the discount rate and fair value of public companies, including the identification of advantages, disadvantages and further improvement of the tools used for strategic investment analysis. Unlike the works of other authors, the study established the causal conditionality of the discount rate and the results of the fair value assessment of a public joint-stock company, based on the subjective opinion of a specialist making decisions in the field of investment analysis. The practical significance of the work is represented by the methodological approaches developed by the author to assess the discount rate and fair value of companies in the real sector of the economy. Further research of the author is aimed at improving the methods of modern strategic analysis, developing recommendations for the identification, assessment and analysis of investment risks
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
43. Evaluation of the cost of capital and the discount rate based on the Russian financial statistics
- Author
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Dmitry S. Voronov and Lyudmila A. Ramenskaya
- Subjects
capital asset pricing model (capm) ,weighted average cost of capital (wacc) ,discount rate ,investment project ,risk-free asset ,risk assessment ,Commerce ,HF1-6182 ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
The cost of capital and the discount rate calculated on its basis are the key parameters in the financial modelling and assessment of investment projects’ economic efficiency. Therefore, the method for their evaluation is always a relevant issue for economists and financiers all over the globe. In conditions of unprecedent sanctions pressure this problem has gained special significance for Russian investors, for whom the assets denominated in ‘unfriendly’ currencies have ceased to be risk-free. The study aims to develop an algorithm for evaluating the cost of capital and calculating the discount rate based on ruble-denominated risk-free assets and Russian financial statistics. The methodological basis of the research is the theories of corporate finance and investment project design, as well as the portfolio theory. The statistics of the Russian stock market for 2003–2022 are studied using general scientific (systems analysis and synthesis) and econometric methods, as well as by adopting the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The paper suggests and tests a step-by-step algorithm for collecting and processing the Russian financial statistics to calculate the cost of capital and risk premiums to it. The findings prove that unsystematic risks should be assessed separately, rather than within the weighted average cost of capital, as well as propose a determined mechanism for this. The developed method allows avoiding the prohibitively high values of the cost of capital that arise during the use of foreign sources of information.
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
44. Cost-effectiveness in unstable economies: the case of sacubitril/valsartan in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction in Argentina
- Author
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Mariano A. Giorgi, Carlos P. Boissonnet, Paula Soledad Luque, Jimena Piastrella, Carlos Porley, Fernanda Ditata, and Sergio Volman
- Subjects
Cost-effectiveness ,Heart failure ,Discount rate ,Medicine (General) ,R5-920 - Abstract
Abstract Background Sacubitril/valsartan (an Angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor—ARNI) is one of the cornerstones in the management of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) having demonstrated significant reductions in both mortality and hospitalisations as compared with enalapril. It proved to be a cost-effective treatment in many countries with stable economies. In Argentina, a country with chronic financial instability and a fragmented health care system, the estimation of its cost-effectiveness requires to consider local financial data. Objectives To estimate the cost-effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan in HFrEF in Argentina. Methods We populated an Excel-based cost-effectiveness model, previously validated, using inputs from the pivotal phase-3 PARADIGM-HF trial and from local sources. As the main problem to consider was the financial instability, we adopted a differential approach to cost discounting based on the opportunity cost of capital. Thus, a discount rate for costs were set at 31.6%, using the BADLAR rate published by the Central Bank of Argentina. Discount for effects were set at 5% as is the current practice. Costs were expressed in Argentinian pesos (ARS). We used the perspective for both the social security and private payers at a 30-year horizon. The primary analysis was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) versus enalapril, the previous standard of care. Alternative scenarios performed included a 5% cost discount rate and 3 a 5-year horizon (as is usually used). Results In Argentina the cost-per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril was 391,158 ARS and 376,665 ARS for a social security and a private payer, respectively, at a 30- year horizon. These ICERs were under the cost- effectiveness threshold of 520,405.79 ARS (1 Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita) suggested by Argentinian health technology assessment bodies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed an acceptability of sacubitril/valsartan as a cost-effective alternative of 86.40% and 88.25% for social security and private payers, respectively. Conclusion Sacubitril/valsartan is a cost-effective treatment in HFrEF using local inputs that considered the financial instability. For both payers considered the cost per QALY gained are under the cost-effectiveness threshold considered.
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
45. Physical and Economic Determinants on Forecast Horizon for Long-Term Reservoir Operation.
- Author
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Meng, Weisa, Wan, Wenhua, Wang, Zhongjing, and Zhao, Jianshi
- Subjects
- *
ECONOMIC forecasting , *DISCOUNT prices , *FLOOD control , *DROUGHTS , *WATER supply , *CONCEPTUAL models - Abstract
The forecast horizon (FH) reflects the effective length of future inflow inputs for real-time reservoir operation. Its determination currently still relies on numerical experiments. Using a conceptual model of multistage water supply operation, this paper presents an analytical basis for determining FH, in which physical and economic determinants are explicitly incorporated. The criteria for FH determination are first derived employing the comparative relationship between the marginal benefits among stages. The effects of discount rate, inflow forecast variance, and reservoir storage capacity on FH are then analyzed both theoretically and numerically. The results show that FH responds nonlinearly and sometimes nonmonotonically to these determinants. A higher discount rate tends to consume more water in advance and shortens FH in most cases; however, a prolonged FH can also be observed when an extreme drought is expected and the resulting potential economic loss outweighs the immediate release benefit brought by high discount rate. In contrast, a larger forecast variance results in more water stored for future use and a generally prolonged FH; but a shortened FH also exists. A larger storage capacity enables higher flexibility in flow regulation, and therefore consistently prolongs FH if it changes. The presented analytical framework provides a promising access to analyzing FH in flood control, hydropower generation, and other analogy operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. THE DISCOUNT RATE IN THE ASSESSMENT OF EU-FUNDED INVESTMENT PROJECTS.
- Author
-
Velkova, Dochka and Kirilova, Yana
- Subjects
RISK premiums ,DISCOUNT prices ,CAPITAL assets pricing model ,INTERNAL rate of return ,NET present value ,COST benefit analysis - Abstract
The article presents the effect of the financial discount rate on key financial indicators in the cost-benefit analysis used in the assessment of public investment projects - financial net present value, financial internal rate of return and financial gaps. It then estimates the Weighted Average Cost of Capital as an alternative approach for determining the discount rate. The model builds on the debt/equity ratio in the overall project investment portfolio and Capital Asset Pricing Model based on: (1) the return gained from investment in risk-free instruments; (2) the risk premium for the state (the so-called asymmetric state-related risk); (3) the business risk premium; (4) the project asymmetric risk premium. The model is then applied to an environmental investment project in Bulgaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
47. Thermodynamic Approach to the Discount Rate and Discounted Cash Flow Method.
- Author
-
Dobija, Mieczysław and Renkas, Jurij
- Subjects
DISCOUNTED cash flow ,DISCOUNT prices ,RISK premiums ,BIOPHYSICAL economics - Abstract
Current theories of the discount rate have a theoretical basis focused on risk; risk-free rate and risk premium. The basic component of the discount rate, the risk-free rate as purely empirical has a natural infirmity which consequently weakens the final theory. Similarly, the risk premium category is not theoretically perfect. The fundamental shortcoming is that the theory of the discount rate does not relate to fundamental knowledge of capital and the natural rate of its potential growth. Therefore, the purpose of the discussion is to justify the discount rate structure with the constant of potential growth of capital; a = 0.08 [1/year] as the main component. It is proven that the theory of the discount rate is linked to the essence of time and the pace of its passage and is an essential component of the capital–labor–time triad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Environmental Value Assessment of Plastic Pollution Control: A Study Based on Evidence from a Survey in China.
- Author
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Han, Lingmei, You, Jianqiang, and Meng, Jiening
- Abstract
A scientific environmental management decision is based on the correct assessment of environmental value. Aiming to objectively and accurately assess the environmental value of plastic pollution treatment, in this paper, we design a choice experiment with four item characteristic attributes consisting of source reduction, recycling, cleanup and remediation and price. With the research data of 450 interviewed residents, a choice experiment method (CEM) and numerical simulation were used to comprehensively assess the environmental value of plastic pollution treatment in China, incorporating discount rates and future price changes of environmental products into the study. The results showed that: (1) residents' willingness to pay per capita for source reduction, remediation and recycling was CNY 32.79, CNY 25.27 and CNY 15.78, respectively; (2) from the perspective of compensation surplus, the residents were willing to pay CNY 147.68 per capita for environmental improvement; (3) the dynamic curve of the value of plastic pollution control displayed an increasing, then gradually declining trend, and its total economic value of 100a was CNY 21,259.97 per capita; and (4) the model simulated the possible trajectory of future changes in plastic pollution control (three scenarios of constant, decreasing and increasing rates of development of plastic pollution control services) and found that addressing the plastic pollution problem early is more conducive to improving the overall welfare of society. This study can provide a basis for scientific evaluation of the benefits of plastic pollution management and allocation of pollution management resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Optimizing Pricing, Pre-Sale Incentive, and Inventory Decisions with Advance Sales and Trade Credit under Carbon Tax Policy.
- Author
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Cheng, Mei-Chuan, Lo, Hui-Chiung, and Yang, Chih-Te
- Subjects
- *
CARBON taxes , *FISCAL policy , *PRICES , *CARBON credits , *CARBON emissions - Abstract
This paper aims to propose a comprehensive inventory model including pricing, pre-sale incentives, advance sales, trade credit, and carbon tax policies. The novelty of this study lies in its holistic approach to addressing these relevant and practical issues. The major purpose is to determine the optimal pricing, pre-order discount, and replenishment decisions to maximize the total profit under carbon tax policy. Through theoretical analysis, this study develops several theorems to demonstrate properties of optimal solutions and an easy-to-use algorithm to derive optimal solutions. Further, several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the solution process for different scenarios and the effects of various parameters on optimal alternatives and solutions. This study provides companies management implications to address the challenges posed by the global movement to reduce carbon emissions while maintaining their profitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Valuation uncertainty and analysts' use of DCF models.
- Author
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Huang, Shengzhong, Tan, Hongping, Wang, Xiongyuan, and Yu, Changqiu
- Subjects
FINANCIAL market reaction ,DISCOUNTED cash flow ,VALUATION ,INVESTMENT information ,CONTENT analysis - Abstract
Using textual analysis for a large sample of analyst reports on U.S. firms, we find that analysts are more likely to use a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and to discuss more cash flow and discount rate information for firms with more uncertainty, as measured by earnings quality and firm risks. The market reactions to target price changes based on a DCF model are stronger, particularly for firms with greater valuation uncertainty and when the analysts present more cash flow and discount rate discussions. These results indicate that the analyst valuation process reflects investors' information demand under uncertainty and has a bearing on the informativeness of analyst research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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