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The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2023, considering domestic and regional factors. We analyze the real sector by tracking GDP, inflation, and unemployment, linking these to EU processes. Emphasis is placed on labour market adjustments in the context of digitalization and transitioning to a climate-neutral economy. The sustainability of the fiscal sector is explored through financing the green and digital transition with EU funds, and the necessary policies to maintain fiscal stability. We discuss foreign trade prospects, considering the economic conditions and expectations for Bulgaria's main trading partners, the high dependence on euro area performance, and the specifics of foreign trade relations. The banking sector and the capital market analysis focus on the implications of European Central Bank monetary policy, regulatory actions of the Bulgarian National Bank, and risks to sector stability in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. Expectations and forecasts for the Bulgarian economy through 2026 are based on assumptions about global economic processes and local challenges. We make economic policy recommendations aimed at preserving the purchasing power of the population's income and restructuring certain fiscal measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the first time, a self-consistent mathematical approach to describe economic processes with a general form of a memory function is proposed. In this approach, power-type memory is a special case of such general memory. The memory is described by pairs of memory functions that satisfy the Sonin and Luchko conditions. We propose using general fractional calculus (GFC) as a mathematical language that allows us to describe a general form of memory in economic processes. The existence of memory (non-locality in time) means that the process depends on the history of changes to this process in the past. Using GFC, exactly solvable economic models of natural growth with a general form of memory are proposed. Equations of natural growth with general memory are equations with general fractional derivatives and general fractional integrals for which the fundamental theorems of GFC are satisfied. Exact solutions for these equations of models of natural growth with general memory are derived. The properties of dynamic maps with a general form of memory are described in the general form and do not depend on the choice of specific types of memory functions. Examples of these solutions for various types of memory functions are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the agri-food industry, strategic digital branding and digital marketing are essential for maintaining competitiveness. This study examines the economic dynamics and impact of desktop and mobile customer analytics on digital branding strategies within the sector. Through a comprehensive literature review, this research utilizes empirical evidence to validate hypotheses regarding the influence of desktop and mobile analytics metrics on key digital branding metrics and value creation. This study explores various branding indicators by utilizing descriptive statistics, correlation analyses, regression models, and fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM). The findings reveal significant correlations between desktop and mobile analytics and digital branding outcomes, underscoring the critical role of digital analytics and Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in shaping modern branding strategies in the agri-food industry. This study highlights the economic implications of desktop and mobile customer analytics on digital branding, providing insights to enhance market performance and foster sustainable growth in the agri-food sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Public Administration & Civil Service / Memlekettìk Basķaru Ža̋ne Memlekettìk Ķyzmet is the property of Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan / Akademiya Gosun and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article studies evolution of low-carbon economy concept development as a new model of economy and environmental regulation. The analyzed scientific research of Russian and foreign scientists allowed to identify main mechanisms, methods, and key factors of new low-carbon economy development and transformation, to classify energy efficiency indicators, as well as to systematize its current trends. To date, all international experts, politicians, and non-governmental organizations have come to a common opinion that “green” (low-carbon) economy is an important direction to achieve sustainable economic development, social policy, and environmental conservation. The relevance of the study lies in the fact that low-carbon economy development in the conditions of serious transformation of energy and global economic crisis is the main lever of gradual transition to ecological civilization, providing interaction, and coordination of economic, social, and environmental aspects. Based on the study results, conclusions have been drawn that can determine the key directions for forming economic development programs and projects to optimize energy efficiency resources. Considering global climate change, it is necessary to take a number of important measures to eliminate negative impacts on the environmental sphere.

Purpose of the study. This article analyzes the contribution of network human capital to economic dynamics and innovation through econometric modeling based on data for 70 countries for 2020–2021. The main goal of the study is to analyze the relationship between network human capital, economic development and innovation activity.Materials and methods. The present study is based on feedback methodology. On the one hand, the development of human capital is a strategic factor in sustainable economic development. On the other hand, economic resources that increase under development conditions are invested in human capital. The authors have developed a two-stage method for assessing the contribution of network human capital to economic dynamics and the development of innovation. At the first stage, the influence of human capital on the factors of innovative development, assessed by the indexes of the Global Innovation Index (GII), was assessed. At the second stage, an assessment of the contribution of these factors to GDP per employee was modeled. The method was implemented through the development of econometric models that allow assessing the contributions of network human capital to economic dynamics based on the profile of the national economy and assessing the dependence of GDP per employee on the employment structure of the national economy.Results. Based on the results of econometric modeling, the impact of human capital accumulation on the innovative development of the economy was assessed. Statistically significant relationships between: an increase in human capital and the acceleration of the pace of development of new technologies and the knowledge economy; development of creative activity; increasing innovative ties have been identified and substantiated. Based on the modeling results, we empirically assessed, firstly, the contribution of network human capital to GDP per employee; secondly, the increasing contribution of new industries to GDP per employee and the decreasing contribution of traditional industries (using the example of agriculture); thirdly, the more significant contribution of those employed in IT compared to the contribution of those employed in education and healthcare to GDP per employee.Conclusion. The results of the modeling proved that network human capital influences economic growth and innovative development through two mechanisms. Firstly, network human capital is directly involved in the production processes of the platform economy as a factor of production. In this sense, the accumulation of network human capital directly increases aggregate output. Secondly, the accumulation of network human capital has a positive effect on classical factors of production and, in particular, contributes to technological progress.

This paper has two purposes. The first is to argue that aggregate investment may be subject to the following paradox. A rise in investment decided by firms to correct overutilization of their production capacity may generate less capacity than demand — and hence cause a paradoxical rise in overutilization. This will in turn lead to even more investment, and so on — the result being the self-sustained rises in output that characterize economic expansions. The second purpose of the paper is to put forward one reason why the above paradox of investment will lose strength as expansions progress, and may eventually disappear leading to their end. That reason may be summarized as follows. As net investment increases along expansions, the effect of investment on production capacity rises relative to its effect on demand — and, as a result, the rise in utilization slows down. Moreover, as net investment eventually grows to a high level, the effect of investment on capacity may become bigger than its effect on demand. If this happens, utilization will stop rising and start falling, and thus the same may happen with investment and output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of predator-prey models in economics has a long history, and the model equations have largely evolved since the original Lotka-Volterra system towards more realistic descriptions of the economic dynamics of predation, competition, and synergy. Seminal examples in this regard are the business cycle model (Goodwin, 1967), chaotic hysteresis (Rosser, 1994), and the models of renewable resources (Clark, 1990). Given this background, this paper aims to analyse the mechanism of economic competition under different conditions, by adopting the unifying framework of niche models. Niche models are dynamic competition models that allow for a richer description of the interacting economic variables than the neoclassical economic theory. We conduct a qualitative study of the dynamic behaviour of firms of different types/sizes in the province di Bologna (Italy), analyzing - in discrete time - their competition through simulation experiments. It emerges that the economic system under analysis is coherent with different (in)stability patterns depending on different configurations of the firms within the market, by confirming the theory of industrial districts in the northeast of Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose. To prove the possibility of improving the procedure for analyzing and forecasting the dynamics of economic systems through the comprehensive use of scientific achievements of chaos theory, namely: checking the trend stability of time series, studying their phase space, attractors, Lyapunov’s chaos indicators, the maximum length of a reliable forecast of the socio-economic system development, etc. Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is the provisions of modern economic theory, in particular, statistics, economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting, economic cybernetics and systems theory, fundamental works of foreign and domestic scientists on the issues of fractal analysis and chaos theory. Findings. The phase and fractal analysis of the dynamics series of chain and basic growth rates of industrial production in Ukraine was carried out, and their fractal dimension was determined. The correlation function was calculated and Lyapunov’s indicators were found to assess the degree of chaotic system, Kolmogorov entropy, and the parameter of evolution in time. The maximum length of a reliable forecast and the future values of the time series were also determined. Originality. The article substantiates the necessity and possibility of applying the methodological apparatus of chaos theory in the process of analyzing and forecasting economic dynamics, including the development of domestic industrial production. Practical value. The value of the work is determined by the applied aspects of reliable forecasts of chain and basic growth rates of industrial production in Ukraine obtained on the basis of the chaos theory tools, the possibility of comparative analysis of the domestic industry development in “potential peacetime” and actual wartime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to discuss left behind places in Brazil in the early 21st century. We conceptually debate the left behind places' approach in dialogue with other contemporary theoretical perspectives. To evaluate regional inequalities in Brazil, we used the coefficient of variation, calculated at two different scales from 2002 to 2019 for GDP per capita, also considering social indicators. The results indicated a slow decline in regional inequalities. We debate the role of recently implemented public policies in this process, as well as the potentiality of these policies to identify left behind places and deal with them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aimed to analyze the behavior of the northeastern municipal economic dynamics explained in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in relation to the volume of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF) destined for each entity, the proportion obtained from the Votes by the Mayor Elected (VPE) in the face of the set of voters participating in the election on the spot and the Mayor-Elect Party Coalition (CPPE) established or not with the state governor, based on per capita variables, in the period of 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016. Methodologically, it was used to measurement of research results the quantile regression model for panel data. The results showed that GDP responded positively to PBF and negatively in most countries. municipalities to the VPE and CPPE did not bring favorable impacts on the northeastern municipal economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, play a pivotal role in various industries due to their unique properties. Palladium is frequently employed in technologies aimed at environmental preservation, such as catalytic converters that reduce harmful emissions from vehicles, and in the production of clean energy, notably in the hydrogen evolution process. Regrettably, the production of this vital metal for our environment is predominantly centered in two countries—Russia and South Africa. This centralization has led to palladium being classified as a critical raw material, emphasizing the importance of establishing a secure and sustainable supply chain, as well as employing the most efficient methods for processing materials containing palladium. This review explores techniques for palladium production from primary sources and innovative recycling methods, providing insights into current technologies and emerging approaches. Furthermore, it investigates the economic aspects of palladium production, including price fluctuations influenced by emission regulations and electric vehicle sales, and establishes connections between palladium prices, imports from major producers, as well as copper and nickel prices, considering their often co-occurrence in ores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the first time, a self-consistent mathematical approach to describe economic processes with a general form of a memory function is proposed. In this approach, power-type memory is a special case of such general memory. The memory is described by pairs of memory functions that satisfy the Sonin and Luchko conditions. We propose using general fractional calculus (GFC) as a mathematical language that allows us to describe a general form of memory in economic processes. The existence of memory (non-locality in time) means that the process depends on the history of changes to this process in the past. Using GFC, exactly solvable economic models of natural growth with a general form of memory are proposed. Equations of natural growth with general memory are equations with general fractional derivatives and general fractional integrals for which the fundamental theorems of GFC are satisfied. Exact solutions for these equations of models of natural growth with general memory are derived. The properties of dynamic maps with a general form of memory are described in the general form and do not depend on the choice of specific types of memory functions. Examples of these solutions for various types of memory functions are suggested.

Import and export commerce is a significant strategy for stimulating national economic growth and realizing foreign exchange. Based on the above, this research work dives into the delicate link between changes in China's peripheral diplomatic relations and their resultant consequences on export commerce in China's quickly developing global environment. It provides a unique combined forecasting model that combines autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series analysis with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to answer the pressing demand for accurate forecasts in this dynamic setting. First, a forecasting model is established for the influencing factors and volume of import and export trade of ASEAN. Second, it establishes the regression equation with the econometrics method by analyzing the specific impact of each influencing factor on the forecasting target. Moreover, it uses data statistics to mathematically process the historical data of ASEAN's import and export volume by determining the correlation between ASEAN's trade volume and some influencing factors. Regression analysis is often used to find relationships between variables. Adding ARIMA time-series modeling improves the model's prediction capabilities, providing a comprehensive insight into China–ASEAN import and export trade volume dynamics. Finally, it compares the performance of the suggested forecasting model to existing approaches, which proves that the correlation rate is enhanced to above 90%. In contrast, other error rates, including the average root, are decreased to the square error. These results show that the prediction model based on the combination of time series and LSTM produces the best short-term forecast of China and ASEAN import and export volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Richard H. Day was a renaissance man and a difference maker. This essay honors the life and scholarly work of Dick Day, expressed mostly through those who knew him as colleagues and students. It also provides an introduction to this special issue, which honors Professor Day with papers of the type he founded this journal to publish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structural change tests aim to identify evidence of a structural break or change in the underlying generating process of a time series. The BDS test has its origins in chaos theory and seeks to test, using the correlation integral, the hypothesis that a time series is generated by an identically and independently distributed (IID) stochastic process over time. The BDS test is already widely used as a powerful tool for testing the hypothesis of white noise in the residuals of time series models. In this paper, we illustrate how the BDS test can be implemented also in a recursive manner to evaluate the hypothesis of structural change in a time series, taking advantage of its ability to test the IID hypothesis. We apply the BDS test repeatedly, starting with a sub-sample of the original time series and incrementally increasing the number of observations until it is applied to the full sample time series. A structural change in the unknown underlying generator model is detected when a change in the trend shown by this recursively computed BDS statistic is detected. The strength of this recursive BDS test lies in the fact that it does not require making any assumptions about the underlying time series generator model. We ilustrate the power and potential of this recursive BDS test through an application to real economic data. In this sense, we apply the test to assess the structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in international financial markets. Using daily data from the world's top stock indices, we have detected strong and statistically significant evidence of two major structural changes during the period from June 2018 to June 2022. The first occurred in March 2020, coinciding with the onset of economic restrictions in the main Western countries as a result of the pandemic. The second occurred towards the end of August 2020, with the end of the main economic restrictions and the beginning of a new post-pandemic economic scenario. This methodology to test for structural changes in a time series is easy to implement and can detect changes in any system or process behind the time series even when this generating system is not known, and without the need to specify or estimate any a priori generating model. In this sense, the recursive BDS test could be incorporated as an initial preliminary step to any exercise of time series modeling. If a structural change is detected in a time series, rather than estimating a single predictive model for the full-sample time series, efforts should be made to estimate different predictive models, one for the time before and one for the time after the detected structural change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 considering domestically determined and regional factors and processes. We analyse the real sector of the Bulgarian economy by tracing the dynamics of economic activity (GDP, inflation, and unemployment) considering internal and external factors affecting inflation dynamics and labour market processes. The sustainability of the fiscal sector is viewed through the possibilities of financing the green and digital transition using EU funds and programmes, and the policies needed to preserve the fiscal stability. Prospects for foreign trade are discussed in terms of the economic situation and expectations of Bulgaria's main trading partners, considering the high connectivity with the euro area and the structural specificities of foreign trade relations. The analysis of the financial sector (banking sector and capital market) focuses on the implications of the monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank and the regulatory actions of the Bulgarian National Bank, as well as on the risks for the stable functioning of the sector in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. Expectations and forecasts for the Bulgarian economy to 2025 are based on key assumptions about the global economic processes and locally determined challenges. Recommendations are made to the national economic policy aimed at preserving the purchasing power of the population's income and the need to restructure certain fiscal measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revue d'Économie Régionale & urbaine is the property of Librairie Armand Colin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

There are no common methods of the search for optimal solutions to problems of economic dynamics. Application of variational methods is possible for a quite narrow class of problems. In this paper, we discuss application of the Pontryagin maximum principle, which significantly expands the class of problems considered and allows one to obtain numerical solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previously, the authors proposed two mathematical models that describe the dynamics of economic development rates and forecasting inflation rates. The events that took place after February 2022 introduced an element of significant turbulence into the processes of macroeconomic dynamics in Russia, which required some correction of the previous models. This is reflected in this article. The processes simulated on the basis of new models show that a significant reduction in the interest rate and a steady increase in the money supply are required to restore economic growth and reduce inflation in the medium term. It is shown that, in the current era of geopolitical changes and the collapse of many liberal market dogmas, the role of the state and planning in managing economic processes is increasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theory of value aims to explain the way prices function as a coordination mechanism of market societies. A coherent approach to the theory of value must be monetary and, in addition, it must analyze the dynamics of the economy in a disaggregated manner, considering the interdependent relations between the different individual economic activities. Here, we review the main monetary models of theories of value, both neoclassical and classical-Marxian. We analyze their scope and limits and conclude by highlighting a dilemma they face between their results’ generality and specificity.

In this paper, we review the theories of business cycles in the 20th century after the work of John Maynard Keynes. Fluctuations in economic activity have been observed with considerable regularity since the beginning of the last century, motivating empirical efforts to, identify, measure, and understand business cycles, contributing to the identification of stylized facts on business cycles, facts the business cycle theories should try to explain. Theories however have been very distinct through the years. Despite the different explanations for the sources of cycles, in mainstream economics, there was the underlying hypothesis of stability and equilibrium as a main characteristic of the economic system. The heterodox view on business cycles, in contrast, starts with Keynes pre-dynamic theory, considering the intrinsic instability of the system and extends through several other authors and theories. In this paper, we use the concepts of equilibrium and instability as a demarcating guide to separate theories in two groups: the mainstream view and the heterodox view. We notice however that, even though different authors and theories might share similar views on the self-equilibrating property of the economic system, there is no coherent integration between similar theories. We conclude the paper with some methodological insights that might lead to a coherent and integrated approach to explain business cycles in the heterodox view, requiring new and complex methods and tools. • Equilibrium and instability as demarcating guide to Business Cycles theories. • Empirical stylized facts on Cycles are to be explained by theories. • In mainstream, cycles are external shocks damped by internal response mechanisms. • The heterodox view instead assumes endogenous instability. • Despite common assumptions, cycle theories have been very distinct. • We propose an integrated heterodox approach under some guiding principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the problems of the organization of research of the sustainability of economic systems by analyzing their dynamic properties and investigating the potential of improvement of economic and mathematical modeling of such research. This problematics is investigated in a case study of the economy of modern Russia; in particular such methodology may serve as an instrument of the controlled transition of the country's economic dynamics to the sustained trajectories of growth. Results of the study are intended for use by individuals and entities that make economic decisions both at the regional and country levels. We emphasize the critical importance of individuals making economic decisions in the control loop, the necessity of rhythmic and timely development of the base «input-output» tables and dynamic input-output models. In the case of the realities of modern Russia, only one methodology surfaces as the optimal solution: the Keynesian methodology approach-with its gradual change of the economic structure applied to the management of the country's economics it is bound to enhance the country's economic dynamics and growth. On the contrary, lack of implementation of "non- market" management practices in the economy of Russia will be detrimental and without prospects for an extended period of time.

The IS-LM model for economy of Ukraine in 2000-2008 has been created in the paper by econometric methods. There were algorithms of creating the curves showing equilibrium of goods and money markets under consideration, some conclusions about the Ukrainian macrosystem’s current state and dynamics have been drawn for the considered period.

Structural change tests aim to identify evidence of a structural break or change in the underlying generating process of a time series. The BDS test has its origins in chaos theory and seeks to test, using the correlation integral, the hypothesis that a time series is generated by an identically and independently distributed (IID) stochastic process over time. The BDS test is already widely used as a powerful tool for testing the hypothesis of white noise in the residuals of time series models. In this paper, we illustrate how the BDS test can be implemented also in a recursive manner to evaluate the hypothesis of structural change in a time series, taking advantage of its ability to test the IID hypothesis. We apply the BDS test repeatedly, starting with a sub-sample of the original time series and incrementally increasing the number of observations until it is applied to the full sample time series. A structural change in the unknown underlying generator model is detected when a change in the trend shown by this recursively computed BDS statistic is detected. The strength of this recursive BDS test lies in the fact that it does not require making any assumptions about the underlying time series generator model. We ilustrate the power and potential of this recursive BDS test through an application to real economic data. In this sense, we apply the test to assess the structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in international financial markets. Using daily data from the world’s top stock indices, we have detected strong and statistically significant evidence of two major structural changes during the period from June 2018 to June 2022. The first occurred in March 2020, coinciding with the onset of economic restrictions in the main Western countries as a result of the pandemic. The second occurred towards the end of August 2020, with the end of the main economic restrictions and the beginning of a new post-pandemic economic scenario. This methodology to test for structural changes in a time series is easy to implement and can detect changes in any system or process behind the time series even when this generating system is not known, and without the need to specify or estimate any a priori generating model. In this sense, the recursive BDS test could be incorporated as an initial preliminary step to any exercise of time series modeling. If a structural change is detected in a time series, rather than estimating a single predictive model for the full-sample time series, efforts should be made to estimate different predictive models, one for the time before and one for the time after the detected structural change.

Although the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) advocate, through SDG 4 and SDG 10, equitable quality education and the reduction of inequalities within and between countries, respectively, few studies have examined how inequalities in regional sustainability influence higher education. Therefore, this study aims to examine the relationship between regional sustainability and higher education in China using fixed-effects panel modelling. A systematic force framework showing how regional sustainability drives higher education was constructed from economic, social, and environmental perspectives, and the endogeneity in the process of how regional sustainability affects higher education was explored by introducing one-year lagged values as instrumental variables. Our results show that regional sustainability has a significant impact on higher educational attainment in China, with differing effects in the eastern, central, and western regions, respectively. In central China, economic sustainability plays a significant positive role in higher educational attainment; in the western region, economic and social sustainability have stronger positive effects, while environmental sustainability has significantly negative effects. In terms of policy implications, our findings can be used to support regional development policies to promote regional higher education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of the study of relevant mathematical methods and models of long-term development of the national industry is substantiated. It has been proven that causal econometric models of production are relatively simple and convenient to use in practice, as well as the most common tools for researching the long-term economic future. It was defined that the production functions, adapted to individual circumstances, proved their ability to solve the assigned tasks. However, the problem of more accurate adjustment to the features of the simulated object of research is particularly relevant in the current conditions of development of Ukraine, in the conditions of concentration of attention on certain sectors, on particular branch of industry, and in connection with the revolutionary transformations of production forces and relations, in accordance with the spread of cyber-physical technologies of the Fourth Industrial revolution. In such specific circumstances, it makes sense to ask for more sophisticated models. On the one hand, they are better, as they allow more accurate tuning of the modeled object, including by adding important factors that are outside the production system. On the other hand, they are worse because they complicate the analysis and significantly increase the number of variables needed to describe the dynamics of economic growth. In this connection, expert research methods cannot be neglected. Choosing the type of model, the range of influencing factors, possible development scenarios, etc., usually requires expert assessments (often implicit). Therefore, when analyzing longterm factors and development trends, it is important to adhere to the main methodological message of expert approaches in the construction of foresights: for long time horizons in conditions of significant uncertainty, it is appropriate to ask questions not about the calculation of the "correct future", but about the assessment of the spectrum of probable scenarios of development, expansion and rethinking its new opportunities and challenges, in particular - to avoid potentially harmful ideas and expectations, embedded in the current policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to a description of the modeling of economics and in particular, of business processes. More specifically, it describes the process and the conditions of creating a user-friendly and correct models, as well as the advantages, disadvantages and problems in applying the method of business process simulation. The process of simulation in the field of queueing systems and stock management, which are two of the most basic decision-making areas for all enterprises, is described in more detail. Nowadays, technology offers many solutions for every researcher with hi-end simulation tools, like simulation languages and other software packages. Simple examples are given and commented from computational and economical points of view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss the issue arising from the stalling of the new economic policy implemented in the Russian Far East in the context of the dichotomy between economic development and economic growth. We consider the actual difference in the economic content of these two components of the objective function of regional economic dynamics. It is demonstrated that the difference in the internal content of these two components determines, in turn, the difference in economic policy itself and determines the fact that such economic policy itself is internally contradictory. We argue that the order of ‘steps’, through which the regional economic policy is implemented, plays the key role and the final result is determined directly and clearly by the way the order of objectives set in the objective function: ‘growth and development’ or ‘development and growth’. Three waves of economic dynamics of the Far East over a 150-year period are demonstrated, and a question of whether it is possible to move on to the fourth wave is raised. We also assess the most likely outcomes of the current policy which are exaggerated development of the resource sector, stalling of the growth of endogenous aggregate demand and the inability to switch to endogenous growth, the dominance of the parameters of external and national growth over the parameters of economic growth in the region, and stagnation of the parameters of economic development in the region. We determine the main reason for the discussed outcomes: the gap between the resources that should generate development and growth, and the demand that should accumulate these resources and transform them into development results that must eventually become the basis of economic growth

Firms in the U.S. spend over $200 billion each year advertising their products to consumers, around one percent of the country's gross domestic product. It is of great interest to understand how that aggregate expenditure affects prices, market efficiency, and overall welfare. Here, we present a mathematical model for the dynamics of competition through advertising and find a surprising prediction: when advertising is relatively cheap compared to the maximum benefit advertising offers, rational firms split into two groups, one with significantly less advertising (a ``generic"" group) and one with significantly more advertising (a ``name-brand"" group). Our model predicts that this segmentation will also be reflected in price distributions; we use large consumer data sets to test this prediction and find good qualitative agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main channels of influence of the new coronavirus infection pandemic on the economy are analyzed. The key features of the economic crisis caused by the pandemic are emphasized, the scale and depth of the economic decline largely depending on the actions of the authorities to restrict economic activity. It has been stated that as the pandemic crisis developed, the governments of the largest countries of the world adapted to its negative consequences for the economy, which was reflected in a decrease in the dependence of economic activity on the incidence of COVID-19. The effectiveness of economic support measures implemented in Russia and key countries of the world during the crisis is assessed. The failures of market self-regulation during the crisis, which led to a significant imbalance of supply and demand in world markets, are considered. Along with the success of the Russian government in reducing the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy, attention is drawn to the serious social and demographic damage that our country has suffered as a result of the pandemic. The main trends for compensating for losses are formed, and the medium- and long-term potential for the development of the Russian economy after the pandemic crisis is assessed. This article is an amended and updated version of the author's report at the Scientific Session of the RAS General Meeting on December 15, 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of digitalization on the industry of Russian economy. The results of an analytical study of the impact of digitalization on the dynamics of manufacturing enterprises are presented. The target setting is focused on the analysis of industrial dynamics in the context of the digitalization of the economy and the identification of prerequisites for the formation of an intelligent infrastructure for technological development in industry. The relevance of the study is due to the need to modernize industrial enterprises in the digital economy by updating fixed assets and putting into operation new equipment and software products (Compass-3D, SolidWorks, Mathcad, etc.) in accordance with the pace of modern technologization

The modern economy with all the variety of its structural elements, which every year is increasingly immersed in a hyper-connected digital space, new conditions of institutional functioning caused by both a change in technological patterns and innovative forms of thinking, needs to adjust the basic, established principles and models of economic growth. If earlier the material productive factors was played a key role, today their importance is to some extent offset by the increasing role of non-material factors of production, the most important of which should include reputation capital. The purpose of the article is to comprehend and theoretically support this scientific problem. The need to revise some principles of building models of economic dynamics and strategic management of the region based on the use and revision of structural, logical and evolutionary views on the construction of this process is substantiated in the article. Based on the results of systematization of the evolution of methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of regional socio-economic development of territories / regions, the position is substantiated, according to which, in modern economic conditions, the effectiveness of territorial development should be based on research and strengthening of reputation capital.

• We consider the requirement of taking climate action for authorities in urban mobility planning. • Three alternative small-scale projects that the city planners can develop and implement are used. • Twelve societal dynamics criteria are grouped as technical, environmental, economic, and political. • We propose an improvement of WASPAS by Einstein norms in a fuzzy environment over triangular fuzzy numbers. • The results show that the best plan should be inclusive, equitable and economically efficient. The twin challenges posed by biodiversity loss and climate change compel public authorities to transform their traditional policies to take climate action via urban mobility planning. However, the interests of the stakeholders may differ so that the development and the implementation of the required action become challenging. In this study, we trace how an optimal action plan should take the societal dynamics into account and how the actions taken can reshape the societal dynamics. To illustrate and analyze the complex forces that drive the decision-making process in urban mobility planning, we develop a scenario, which bunches three small-scale urban mobility planning alternatives that are frequently proposed in the literature and practiced in cities. Alternatives are assessed under twelve criteria reflecting economic, environmental, technical, and political dimensions of the decision problem. In solving the problem, we propose an improvement of the Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) approach by applying Einstein norms in a fuzzy environment over triangular fuzzy numbers to evaluate and rank the prioritization of climate change mitigation strategies. The proposed method comprises two stages. In the first stage, the weight coefficients of the criteria are calculated. In the second stage, the fuzzy Einstein WASPAS approach is applied to select the most suitable alternative among the three alternatives. Testing and validation of the model are done through a comparison with existing decision making methods in the literature. The results show that the best plan should be inclusive and equitable as well as economically efficient. Although the economic dimension is highly significant to the decision-making process, choosing the most suitable urban mobility planning option requires the consideration of other societal dynamics, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Introduces a novel morphogenetic framework for understanding economic dynamics • Presents a unified approach to study the interplay between economic structures and their dynamics • Highlights the role of coupling, diffusion and symmetry-breaking in studying structural change • Synthesises interdisciplinary insights from three different disciplines, and develops prospective links with economic theorising Economic systems are characterised by constant change and evolution, and explanations concerning the properties of economic structures have received sustained interest. The structure of a system and its dynamics can influence each other through feedback effects. In this paper we offer a brief survey of how structure plays a role in dynamic economic theory – in particular, growth and business cycles. We propose a morphogenetic framework, inspired from the creation of forms in developmental biology, as a potential unifying approach for studying economic structures and their dynamics. We synthesise insights from three different strands of research, focusing on the role of coupling, diffusion and symmetry-breaking. We highlight their existing and prospective links with economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is a supplemented and updated version of the report at the meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the participation of the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development on September 21, 2021. The authors analyze the main opportunities and risks of implementing the Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050. The key role of the global climate agenda, determined by the leading countries of the world, primarily the European Union, in shaping the institutional environment that influences decision making in the field of national economic policy, is emphasized. It is argued that there is no automatic positive relationship between the race for so-called carbon neutrality of the economy by 2050, prescribed by the global climate agenda, and the achievement of the sustainable development goals set by the United Nations. Principles and approaches to reduce the risks of decarbonization of the economy are formulated. These provide for the integration of a set of measures to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions with those to adapt communities and economic systems to climate change, and harmonize the measures above with the national goals of long-term sustainable development. Estimates of the economic effects of implementation of various scenarios of the decarbonization of the national economy and the associated risks of the global energy transition for Russia are introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to the study of the issues of correlation between macroeconomic dynamics and the GDP accumulation rate. The statistical estimates using data for a large number of countries within the framework of a long retrospective indicate a certain presence of this connection. However, one cannot speak of a decisive influence of the accumulation rate on economic growth. The article specifically evaluates the influence of the factors of the accumulation rate and the incremental capital intensity on the GDP growth rate in the groups of developed and developing countries, in each of which the countries are in similar starting conditions. It has been shown that in the group of developing countries, characterized in the base year by approximately the same level of development, the influence of the accumulation rate and incremental capital intensity on macroeconomic dynamics is comparable and significant. In the group of developed countries (under the same conditions), the accumulation rate, if it has a positive impact, is extremely insignificant; the dominant factor here is the return on capital, not its (relative) volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have studied a discrete time dynamical model with four variables and delays, describing the interaction between a three-sector real economy and a financial market with four assets. Investors and financial intermediaries have heterogeneous beliefs. We show that complexity related to the evolution of state variables emerges and we investigate interdependence among economic fluctuations and assets volatility. By means of stability analysis we have found that real economy influences the existence of equilibrium prices in financial markets and that risky asset prices as well as capital per capita reach zero only when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is low enough. Bifurcation analysis shows that an increase of bond return would decrease the price of all the assets, conversely when the bond return decreases fluctuations and complex dynamics may arise. Due to the complexity of the model, computational tools are used to investigate long run dynamics, thus showing that for sufficiently high values of the interest rate bifurcations with repetitive structure emerge. In addition, we show how the total number of shares in each sector influences its price volatility. Finally, when fluctuations appear, economic policy intended to increase employment could stabilise the model only in sufficiently developed economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robert Lucas' ([1972b] 1981a) article on the neutrality of money represented the first effective challenge to Samuelson's neoclassical synthesis methodological separation between static microeconomic optimisation and macroeconomic dynamics. Lucas rejected disequilibrium price dynamics, as expressed by the Walrasian tâtonnement and auctioneer mechanisms. Lucas' new treatment of equilibrium as an expectational concept, determined by the rational behaviour of information processing agents, was not restricted to market clearing competitive economies. Lucas' effort to compare alternative rational expectations models of price stickiness (including his 1972 original formulation) led him to stress the notion of descriptive realism of the models' main assumptions, which played an important role in his original discussion of model robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates medical devices (MD), which are predicated on a concoction of economic and policy forces (e.g., supply/demand, crises, patents), under primarily two administrative circuits: premarketing notifications (PMN) and Approvals (PMAs). This work considers the dynamics of FDA PMNs and PMAs applications as an proxy metric for the evolution of the MD industry, and specifically seeks to test the existence [and, if so, identify the length scale(s)] of economic/business cycles. Beyond summary statistics, the monthly (May, 1976 to December, 2020) number of observed FDA MD Applications are investigated via an assortment of time series techniques (including: discrete wavelet transform, running moving average filter, complete ensemble empirical mode with adaptive noise decomposition, and Seasonal Trend Loess decomposition) to exhaustively seek and find such periodicities. This work finds that from 1976 to 2020, the dynamics of MD applications are (1) non-normal, non-stationary (fractional order of integration < 1), non-linear, and strongly persistent (Hurst > 0.5); (2) regular (non-variance), with latent periodicities following seasonal, 1-year (short-term), 5–6 year (Juglar; mid-term), and a single 24-year (Kuznets; medium-term) period (when considering the total number of MD applications); (3) evolving independently of any specific exogenous factor (such as the COVID-19 crisis); (4) comprised of two inversely opposing processes (PMNs and PMAs) suggesting an intrinsic structural industrial transformation occurring within the MD industry; and, (6) predicted to continue its decline (as a totality) into the mid-2020s until recovery. Ramifications of these findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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