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Copyright of European Journal of Applied Economics is the property of Singidunum University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

• Cyclicality in aggregate productivity predicts the efficiency of resources reallocation. • Aggregate productivity growth originates from within-plants, allocative efficiency gain, and due to entry and exit. • We exploit the Great Recession to analyse the validity of the 'Cleansing' or 'Scarring' effect of recession and 'Schumpeterian Darwinian Selection' for Indian manufacturing. • The contributions to aggregate productivity growth from within-plant and net-entry effects are procyclical. • Plants in export-oriented industries are crucial in explaining the pro-cyclicality. • The exporting sectors during 2008-09 shifted resources from more productive to less productive plants. • The relatively productive exporters exited the markets following the global crisis, scarring the economy. • The positive contribution from the net-entry exit effect of plants during the economic downturn validates the 'Schumpeterian approach of Darwinian Selection'. Understanding the cyclicality in aggregate productivity helps answer whether the economy allocates resources efficiently or not. The paper analyses the sources of aggregate productivity growth, such as direct efficiency gain within-plants, allocative efficiency gain, and gains due to entry and exit during economic fluctuations. In particular, we exploit the economic shock of the Great Recession to analyse the validity of the 'Cleansing' or 'Scarring' effect of recession and 'Schumpeterian Darwinian Selection' for Indian manufacturing. The rise and fall of within-plant and net-entry effects during the economic fluctuations explains the pro-cyclicality of productivity growth. Plants in export-oriented industries are crucial in explaining the pro-cyclicality. Negative external shock to exporting sectors during 2008–09 shifted resources from more productive to less productive plants. The relatively productive exporters exited the markets following the global crisis, scarring the economy. Nonetheless, the positive effect from the net-entry exit of plants during the economic downturn makes the 'Schumpeterian approach of Darwinian Selection' valid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current economic fluctuations show no signs of cooling down globally not only leaving negative consequences for the macro economy but also creating difficulties for students and pupils as they have limited financial management experiences. This phenomenon happened all over the world, including Vietnam; therefore, this article aims to contribute to the study of the state of financial socialisation in Vietnam through the clarifying of the impact of social sources including Family, Peers, Media, and Education, as well as evaluating how they enhance personal financial management behaviours of students and pupils. Data in the study were collected from 821 observations, using linear structural modelling (PLS-SEM) to test hypotheses, including the relationship of all potential variables. Our findings underscore the mediating role of financial literacy in the relationships between financial socialization from peer, education and personal financial management behaviours. In light of these insights, we propose targeted recommendations aimed at enhancing the financial landscape for the higher student community in Vietnam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of R&S: Research Studies Anatolia Journal is the property of Dr. Arif Yildiz and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Land supply in China is planned by governments, and the supply ratios of various types of land are in relatively rigid administrative control. This paper constructs a DSGE model to study the relationship between land supply marketization in China and economic fluctuations. Moreover, this paper evaluates the social welfare gains from land marketization. We document that the government's land planning constraint impacts consumption and social welfare through the land price and final output, causing resource misallocation losses in aggregate investment and output. Quantitatively, the optimal upper limit of industrial land supply is about 40% to achieve the maximum social welfare. This paper stresses the necessity of revitalizing China's land market, and simultaneously speeding up the marketization of collectively operated construction land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the influence of economic changes on management practices in Pakistan, focusing on key areas, including budgeting, cost management, monitoring, project planning, resource allocation, procurement, and risk management. Surveys were conducted to obtain data from 150 project managers in various sectors in Karachi. The results suggest that economic changes substantially impact management's decision-making process in Pakistan's firms. Managers respond to economic instability by implementing adaptive actions such as modifying budgets, strengthening cost controls, improving monitoring systems, revising project plans, reallocating resources, refining procurement methods, and strengthening risk management frameworks. These insights suggest that organizational resilience can be improved by implementing better planning, enhancing risk management practices, optimizing budgeting and cost management, strengthening monitoring and control mechanisms, refining resource allocation and procurement strategies, and fostering organizational agility.

This paper retraces the main research avenues explored by some Keynesian macroeconomists from the mid-1980s to model aggregate fluctuations with strategic complementarities. Starting from the static coordination failure framework we identify the different devices implemented to deal with dynamics in deterministic or stochastic settings. The text examines how the analysis shifted from a multiplicity of equilibria to a multiplicity of steady states or equilibrium paths. From this standpoint, we confront the properties obtained under perfect foresight and alternative expectation formation schemes focussing on disequilibrium adjustments. The article also includes a tentative exploration of the reasons for the decline of this view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica is the property of Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose: The main purpose of the considerations is to present and analyze the most important morphological features of cyclical fluctuations for the 27 European Union countries as a whole (aggregated indicator – EU27) and for individual EU countries in the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022 based on the gross domestic product dynamics indicator. On the basis of the constructed indicators, which made it possible to isolate business cycle fluctuations, the degree of synchronization of the cycles of individual EU regions with the EU27 reference cycle was assessed. Design/methodology/approach: The methodological foundations of the research process and the empirical assessment of regional business cycles in the EU were preceded by theoretical analyzes regarding the concept, essence and morphological features of regional business cycle fluctuations. The study is based on 92 observations for each studied region. Dynamic indicators were built reflecting changes in general economic activity, i.e. quarterly time series of GDP. The obtained series were decomposed and deseasonalized. Upper and lower turning points were identified, resulting in phases of growth and slump in a given economy. This made it possible to present full business cycles and then assess them (in particular, determine the degree of synchronization between individual countries and the reference cycle). Findings: By assessing the course of fluctuations in business cycles of the entire economy of the European Union as a whole and fluctuations in business cycles of individual regions making up the EU in the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022, it can be concluded that this progression is not uniform. Divergences in business cycles in the European Union are an important feature of the data. This differentiation depends largely on the specific development of each region. Originality/value: The course of cyclical fluctuations was determined for all countries that are members of the European Union, as well as in individual EU regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land supply in China is planned by governments, and the supply ratios of various types of land are in relatively rigid administrative control. This paper constructs a DSGE model to study the relationship between land supply marketization in China and economic fluctuations. Moreover, this paper evaluates the social welfare gains from land marketization. We document that the government’s land planning constraint impacts consumption and social welfare through the land price and final output, causing resource misallocation losses in aggregate investment and output. Quantitatively, the optimal upper limit of industrial land supply is about 40% to achieve the maximum social welfare. This paper stresses the necessity of revitalizing China’s land market, and simultaneously speeding up the marketization of collectively operated construction land.

Copyright of Olsztyn Economic Journal is the property of Olsztyn Economic Journal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Optimum. Economic Studies is the property of University of Bialystok and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This work presents how changes in the economic climate have affected consumer sentiment. Changes in the volume of GDP, industrial production, total consumption, consumption in the household sector and capital accumulation between 2018 and 2022 were analysed on a quarterly basis. The values of the main indicators reflecting consumer sentiment are also presented: the current consumer confidence index and the leading consumer confidence index. The consumer confidence indicators are also presented at the end of the individual quarters from 2018 to 2022. The results show that consumers observe the changing economic reality and do not always assess these changes positively, even if the effect of these changes indicate an increase in GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of the formation of the principles of jurisprudence, the conflict of evidence has been discussed and paid attention to due to its great application and efficiency in the process of deriving rulings and interpreting Islamic regulations, responding to incidents and solving new problems. Among other things, in the current social situation, economic contracts affected by severe economic fluctuations caused by various causes and factors have caused difficulties for the contracting parties in the implementation of the contract and caused one party severe hardship and embarrassment, and on the other hand, non-implementation of the contract also caused The other side is harmed and in this case, a harmless and embarrassing conflict occurs. Therefore, the present article with a descriptive-analytical method, while explaining the basics of these two rules, has reached these results that what is beyond human capacity and in which there is narrowness, hardship, difficulty, and difficulty is the ruling, both obligatory and situational. It is ruled out. On the other hand, jurists and lawyers should consider difficult conditions in contracts and include them in the text of the contract, pay special attention to the conditions of force majeure, and predict what is likely to happen and may affect contractual relations. . Also, until the adoption of a law on the acceptance of the "change of circumstances" theory, the honorable community of judges can issue a verdict based on the following evidence using authentic Islamic sources or authentic fatwas.

This paper constructs a DSGE model to study the relationship between the Chinese local government's land policy, social welfare and economic fluctuations. I find that increasing the supply of residential land by the local government will reduce housing price and increase social welfare, but it crowds out the amount of industrial land and decreases final output and social welfare as well. This trade-off brings out an optimal supply ratio of residential land, 40%, in deterministic steady-state equilibrium. Besides, the local government is able to use dynamic pro-cyclical residential land supply policy to dampen economic fluctuations in China's macroeconomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We modify the standard descriptive growth model to incorporate what Keynes (1936) called the "essence" of his general theory. The essence is that exogenous changes in investment cause changes in employment and unemployment. We implement this idea by assuming the path for the capital growth rate is exogenous, which implicitly indicates that the significant fluctuations in investment do not result from rational calculation but rather result from what Keynes labelled "animal spirits." Testing the Keynes hypothesis using post-WWII U.S. data, we find that changes in investment Granger-cause changes in unemployment but the reverse is not supported by the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – China's economic transition is essentially the process of China's institutional changes. During the changes, the appearance of institutional innovation is not regular; instead, it is intermittent and random. The purpose of this paper is to show that the fitful appearance of institutional innovation is the root of China's economic growth and fluctuations. Design/methodology/approach – This paper constructs a real business cycle (RBC) model introducing the institutional factor expressed in the quantitative form under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework by measuring China's institutional changes quantitatively. Findings – By comparing the characteristics of the actual economic data with those of the simulated economic data, we find that this RBC model can explain 94.44%, 66.07%, 23.46%, 21.03% and 15.45% of the cyclical fluctuations in output, investment, labor, consumption and capital, respectively. Originality/value – The impulse response analysis finds that the institutional shocks have a relatively long duration, lasting about 30 years, and decline slowly over time, while technological shocks decline relatively fast, lasting approximately ten years.

The construction sector is closely related to the economic situation in the country. The main products of this sector are residences, business structures. Demand for these products is highest when the economic situation in the country is good, but when the economy slows down, the demand for these products also falls. This is because when the economic situation is good the population has spare money, loans are cheaper and the risk of job loss is low. This leads to an increase in the rate of growth of residential construction, as there is more demand for this product. Similarly, businesses are expanding due to increased sales, higher demand, and the resulting increase in non-residential construction. Therefore, in order to maximize the performance of the Lithuanian construction sector, it is important to keep an eye on the macroeconomic environment and to understand when the economy offers opportunities and when it brings threats. To this end, the construction sector and the macroeconomic environment are analyzed, the theory of economic cycles and the impact of macroeconomic factors on the construction sector is analyzed, and an empirical study of the impact of macroeconomic factors on the construction sector is carried out. An analysis of the scientific literature on business cycles and the main macroeconomic factors that affect the performance of the construction sector. Economic cycles are closely linked to construct ion performance. The boom or peak phases of the economy provide opportunities for the construction sector, while the recession and crisis phases bring threats. Understanding potential threats or opportunities maximizes performance, and this understanding requires an analysis of macroeconomic factors. Therefore, the main macroeconomic factors to be taken into account when analyzing both the changes in economic cycles and the factors that directly affect the construction sector are identified. The main factors identified are: aggregate demand, employment levels, corporate profits, import levels, interest rates, gross domestic product. However, it is also very important to analyze the existence of a real estate bubble, especially in the construction sector. An empirical study has been carried out to analyze the relationship between the identified macroeconomic factors and the construction sector in Lithuania. For this purpose, the Eviews software is used to construct a correlation matrix, regression models, find the elasticity coefficient and forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INTRODUCTION: Financing flow needed for production sector is allocated from various markets including stock market, therefore, it is expected, any fluctuations in this market effects on output. For this reason, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between fluctuations in stock market prices and business cycles, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Iran economy. In this structure, along with wage income, the households have financial wealth that is effective on the current and future consumption. Moreover, the households divided into two categories: those households that already have accumulated wealth in financial market and are ready to leave the market and those households that has not any activity and accumulated wealth in this market, yet, and are ready to enter the market. METHODOLOGY: at first, seasonal data are extracted from the time series databases of the Central Bank. Then, using Eviews software, the mentioned data are seasonally adjusted. In the following, in order to extract the cycle of the variables, at first, the long-term trend of the variables is extracted from the deseasonalized variables using the Hedrick- Prescott filter, and in the next step, the cycle of the variables is extracted using the logarithmic difference method. Finally, the cyclical data will be used for the required data. at this stage, the system of linear equations is entered into the Diner software, and then the structural parameters of the model are estimated using the Bayesian method and the data prepared in the previous stage. Finally, using the estimated model and Bayesian inference, we will investigate the role of price bubble on Iran's business cycles and the fluctuation of other macroeconomic variables. FINDINGS: Based on the model estimation results, the replacement rate among households in the capital market is estimated between 6% and 23%, which indicates the effective time horizon of 1.06 to 1.3 years of households' presence in the country's capital market. Also, according to the specified model, the central bank does not react to the fluctuations of the capital market. The estimation results show that a positive stock price shock leads to an increase in production and economic growth, as a result of which the production gap has become somewhat positive. According to the consumption habit hypothesis in the model, the maximum reaction of the production gap to this shock is a few periods after its occurrence. With the increase in economic growth and the improvement of production compared to the potential level, the inflation rate will find a decreasing trend. Therefore, with the occurrence of a positive stock price shock, the inflation rate will have a downward trend and production will have an upward trend, which will increase it compared to the long-term potential level. Therefore, it can be said that the formation of price bubbles in the Iranian stock market has positive effects on business cycles. But it should be kept in mind that although the price bubble can have positive effects on production and economic growth in some periods of time, because these bubbles are considered non-basic factors of the economy, they cannot be considered as a stable and continuous long-term factor. Also, the existence of a bubble in the prices shows that at some point in the future, the prices will break, and in this case, the fear of economic stagnation and a decrease in the level of economic activities is not far from expected. CONCLUSION: The structural parameters of model is estimated using Bayesian method and data during 1383 - 1399, where we derive three important implications: firstly, data meaningfully reveals that stock prices are effective on real sector and business cycles. Secondly, the assumption of no-reaction of central bank to economic volatilities such as stock market, output and inflation is verified. Thirdly, the model endogenously includes a variable related to financial slackness, where is the stock price gap and is used in order to improving measuring model dynamics. This variable is capable to depict volatilities in stock market. At last, the results from simulations show that volatilities in stock market prices have positive effect on output and business cycles in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance is the gross domestic product, the lack of proper economic policy aimed at its stabilization and growth, leads to periods of recession in business cycles with wider effects on economic performance, especially Economic growth, unemployment and inflation. Continuous business cycles will lead to an increase in uncertainty in the level of economic activities, which will have negative effects on investment, consumption, savings and economic performance. It is very important and necessary to know the effects of factors affecting business cycles from the aspect of correctly predicting these cycles and making policies in this field. In this study, the factors affecting the business cycles in Iran were investigated with the quantile regression approach for the period 1360-1400 and the results showed that periods of stagnation in the Iranian economy with the intensification and application of new sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA (Comprehensive Program) joint action) and the emergence of the Corona pandemic in Iran, especially from 2018 to 2020, have become deeper and faster. And the results of applying the ARDL method show the negative effect of labor productivity variables, employment rate and foreign trade on business cycles and the positive effect of final consumption expenditures, oil revenues and sanctions on business cycles (leading to the aggravation of recession have become economic) has been And in general, the effects of these variables on business cycles have been symmetrical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policymakers have been debating for over a decade whether Asia is decoupling from the USA. Increasingly, deepening regional integration is cited as a possible driver of this decoupling. Using large Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions, estimated over different subperiods, we jointly examine bilateral macro-financial interdependencies between Asia Pacific countries and between each Asia Pacific country and the USA. We uncover no evidence of decoupling. Instead, we find that both global and regional interdependencies deepened following the Asian financial crisis, before receding after the Global financial crisis. We also show that while US shocks are important, attention should also be devoted to regional shocks which play a large role in Asia Pacific countries across all subperiods considered. Our results also suggest that there have been shifts in the relative importance of different transmission channels over time. Following the Asian financial crisis, as regional interdependencies deepened, US financial shocks began to play a larger role than US macroeconomic shocks. These results support the view that rising intra-regional trade contributed to a fall in the importance of US macroeconomic shocks. They are also consistent with research suggesting that strong, common global financial linkages increase the synchronization of Asian regional business cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial structure adjustment is an important component of China’s supply-side structural reforms. This study examines the effect and action path of regional industrial structure transformation, through the lens of advancement and rationalization, on the economic fluctuation and quality of the marine fishery industry. The results show that regional industrial structure advancement (rationalization) promotes (reduces) economic fluctuation. Regarding the action paths, regional industrial structure advancement (rationalization) has a U-shaped (inverted U-shaped) relationship with economic quality. The regional industrial structure advancement level is greater than 5.108 in China’s coastal areas and on the right side of the U shape. Thus, the evolution of the industrial structure in these areas is conducive to improving the economic quality of marine fisheries. Meanwhile, The degree of regional industrial structure rationalization has not reached the optimum level, and most areas are far from optimum level. This suggests that the structural dividends from industrial structure rationalization not fully released and need further regulation. In terms of the overall effect, regional industrial structure transformation can cause economic fluctuations in marine fisheries, with the main force originating from industrial structure advancement. The path of regional industrial structure transformation affecting economic quality of marine fisheries is non-linear. At present, the industrial structure advancement transformation can improve economic quality, but the industrial structure rationalization needs to be further adjusted.

Motivated by the observation that land supplied by the Chinese government is highly counter-cyclical with GDP fluctuations, this paper constructs a DSGE model to study the relationship between China's land supply policy and economic fluctuations, and further evaluate the welfare effects. By way of counterfactual exercises, this paper finds that endogenous land supply policy has "direct effect (production input channel)" and "indirect effect (intermediate goods channel)" on GDP fluctuations, and both tend to dampen economic fluctuations in China's macroeconomy. Specifically, GDP fluctuations increase by 63.35% without the "indirect effect", increase by 66.75% without the "direct effect", and increase by 66.79% without both effects. In addition, endogenous land supply policy can increase social welfare by about 1.38%. Verifying by the stylized facts in China, this paper argues that endogenous land supply is an efficient macro-control policy to smooth the economy and increase social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a dynamic general equilibrium model with an explicit employment period and investigates economic fluctuations to a temporary productivity shock. Numerical experiments indicate oscillatory responses of new hiring and employment to the shock which are not observed in a standard flexible price model. The explicit employment period constructs an overlapping structure of employment which results in the oscillatory response. This study also examines the effects of change in employment period to economic fluctuations and shows that the variations in new hiring are higher when the employment period is long.

The article describes the fiscal stimulus, which used in the world to overcome the negative effects of the recession in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors used historical and static methods, a combination of methods of analysis and synthesis, etc. Based on the statist analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, the authors confirmed that the main development trend of most countries and Ukraine in 2020 is a significant economic decline (falling production, rising public debt, growing fiscal deficit, etc.) caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The article summarizes that in the recession in 2020, countries use measures to fiscally stimulate households and business units through additional government expenditures and lost budget revenues. The size and structure of fiscal stimulus measures vary among different groups of countries. The main fiscal stimulus during this period are: deferrals and reductions in taxes, a moratorium on the payment of certain types of obligations, various forms of cash surcharges and subsidies, partial unemployment, capital injections into enterprises, loans and guarantees. The debt burden is a significant threat to low-income countries, as debt restructuring and public spending cuts will be relevant in the long run to stabilize debt in such countries. This means limited use of fiscal stimulus to exit the recession and stimulate economic development in the country. The results can have practical application within the framework of the formation of the state fiscal policy to overcome the recession and stimulate economic development in the country. In Ukrainian practice, during the pandemic, the main measures of fiscal stimulus were the use of reduced working day schemes and the expansion of unemployment benefits; changes in taxation; financial support for retirees; subsidies; social and economic support of households and enterprises.

The agricultural economic development and increasing agricultural productivity is one of the priorities for Iraq because of its relationship to food, people’s lives and food security. The main basis for agricultural economic development and achieving national food security, the problem of cultivating strategic crops lies in the fact that they suffer from low productivity and fluctuations, and that there are determinants and problems that impede increasing the productivity of strategic grains, especially wheat, , and for these reasons the study aimed to know The nature of agricultural economic development and agricultural productivity and a study of what are the determinants that lead to reduced productivity of wheat as a model for strategic crops. In this study, the determinants that hinder the increase in agricultural productivity of the wheat crop in Salah El-Din Governorate were diagnosed, according to their priorities and their relationship with some variables, and the areas affecting agricultural productivity and the most important paragraphs in these areas were also identified, as well as the identification of the most important problems that hinder the process of increasing productivity. The study came out with a number of important results and a number of recommendations, including finding a partnership with international companies to produce various modern irrigation systems and the production of pesticides in Iraq. And to allocate funds for this fund that are deducted directly from the federal state budget.

In the first post-war years, the policy of the Western occupying powers towards Germany was aimed at preventing the economic revival of their former formidable competitor. As a result of these efforts, West Germany rebuilt its economy to the pre-war level later than Great Britain or France. The undoubted shift in the economic development of West Germany began in mid-1948. The impetus for the rapid growth of industrial production was the monetary reform carried out by the Western occupying powers, as well as the inflow of funds under the Marshall Plan. The monetary reform carried out in June 1948 favoured the strengthening of the financial market and was an incentive to invest. The influx of capital under the Marshall Plan had a similar impact on the West Germany’s economy during this period. The western zones of Germany played a special role in this plan. The United States, striving to strengthen its position in these zones as much as possible and use them as a strategic base (aimed, inter alia, against the communist bloc), provided West Germany with a sum of loans and subsidies significantly exceeding the amount of aid provided to other Western European countries. An extremely serious burden for the Western occupation zones was the influx of refugees from neighbouring areas (a total of about 10 million people) and the need to maintain the occupation troops, which directly led to a huge deficit in food resources. Agricultural production fell and ranged only from 66% to 75% of the pre-war production level.

Copyright of Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny (0035-9629) is the property of Adam Mickiewicz University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Muthanna Journal of Administrative & Economics Sciences is the property of Muthanna Journal of Administrative & Economics Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper presents an approach for estimating changes in firms' productivity. We apply the quantile approach, which estimates the changes in the productivity distribution of surviving firms. Using this method, the paper clarifies productivity dynamics in terms of both average change and dispersion in Japan from 1987 to 2014. The main results of the analysis are as follows: During a boom or normal period, the productivity distribution shifts to the right and the productivity dispersion decreases. Conversely, during a recession, the productivity distribution shifts to the left and the productivity dispersion expands. The analysis also gives quantitatively significant results. During the historically rare global financial crisis of 2008, the weighted (simple) average of manufacturing productivity in Japan fell by only 0.2% (5.4%). We identified that this counter-intuitive result was due to a significant change in the shape of the productivity distribution and found that the crisis would reduce productivity by more than 22% if the effects of changing the shape of the distribution were adjusted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proper understanding and monitoring of household savings are crucial to effective macroeconomic policies targeted at balanced and sustainable economic growth. Remittances, as a financial flow of foreign capital, can create a vital part of private savings. This paper is aimed at identifying whether remittances contribute to household savings in the Baltics along with other macroeconomic variables in a post-crisis period, during which the relative smoothing and convergence of economic development of the Baltic countries after the sharp financial distress in 2009 can be observed. The following methods of panel data regression analysis were employed: fixed effects and OLS. The results of the econometric analysis based on both fixed effects and OLS methods reveal that remittances are an essential driver of savings in the Baltics in the long run. Savings in the Baltics are not significantly influenced in the short term by sharp economic fluctuations, but are dependent on demographic factors and foreign capital, which can bring instability in economic development and financial flows of the region. AcknowledgmentThis research was funded by Vega research project no. 1/0037/20: “New challenges and solutions for employment growth in changing socio-economic conditions”, and VEGA research project no. 1/0287/19 “Integration of immigrants in EU countries from the point of view of migration policies”.

Ekonomik aktivitede zaman içerisinde yaşanan inişli çıkışlı hareketler iktisadi dalgalanmalar olarak tanımlanmakta iken çıktı düzeyindeki dalgalanmaların ileriki dönemlerdeki seyri hakkında bilgiler içeren göstergelere ekonomik göstergeler denilmektedir. İktisadi dalgalanmaların kısa dönemli öngörüsü, yaklaşan resesyonların tespiti ve buna yönelik gerekli önlemlerin alınması açısından önemli görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 2002Q1-2016Q3 dönemleri arası aylık ve üç aylık toplam 29 göstergeden yararlanılarak GSYH tahmin modeli oluşturma denemesi yapılmıştır. Bu amaçla, biri bağımlı değişken olarak GSYH, diğeri bağımsız değişken olarak bir ekonomik gösterge olmak üzere iki değişkenli VAR tahmin modelleri tahmin edilmiştir. Sonra, elde edilen gösterge bazlı bireysel tahminlerden aritmetik ortalama ve medyan alma yöntemleriyle tahmin birleştirme teknikleri uygulanmıştır. Son olarak, elde edilen tahminlerin ortalama hataları referans bir AR tahmininden elde edilen hataların ortalamasıyla karşılaştırılarak tahmin performanslarına bakılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, BIST100 endeksi, döviz kuru ve tüketici fiyat endeksi gibi verilerin, GSYH’nin kısa dönemli konjonktürel hareketlerinin tahmininde yararlı bilgiler içerdiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca, tahmin birleştirme yöntemlerinin pek çok göstergeden elde edilen bireysel tahminlerden daha başarılı sonuçlar verdiği de tespit edilmiştir.

The study analyses the unemployment situation of socially vulnerable groups in the Baltic States in the context of the European Union. The analysis of the unemployment rate is based on gender, age and duration of unemployment. Statistical analysis identified the most vulnerable groups in the labour market and those most sensitive to economics fluctuations. The study also evaluated the relationship of economic growth with employment of these groups. The research highlighted that in the Baltic countries, the global financial crisis more significantly affected vulnerable groups, mainly because of the impact of the crisis in 2009–2010. Hence these results differ from the general trend in unemployment rate of the target groups in the countries of the European Union. Unemployment rate at the EU level did not coincide with similar trends observed in the target groups in the Baltic States. In the Baltic States, the unemployment rate of the target groups started to grow earlier and faster than in the EU countries and it started to decrease much earlier than the EU unemployment rate indicators. In addition, in the Baltic countries, the growth of target group unemployment was significantly higher than the EU average. The fast and volatile growth of unemployment within the mentioned target groups shows that they had difficulties adapting to dramatically worsening conditions in the labour market in the Baltic States. The current pandemic situation in comparison to the global financial crisis of 2009–2010 has a less negative effect. The study revealed that unemployment rates in the Baltic States were close to the EU average. The research results also showed that men and the youth are sensitive to economic fluctuations in the Baltic States. On the one hand, unemployed men and the youth tend to more easily enter the labour market during economic upturns. On the other hand, in an economic downturn, these jobseekers face significant integration difficulties into the labour market and become more socially vulnerable. It is important to note that long-term unemployed people belong to the most vulnerable groups. People with low skills or qualifications face multiple barriers to labour market integration. Long-term unemployment leads to a loss of income, an erosion of skills, a higher incidence of health problems and increased household poverty.

The relevance of the present research is conditioned by the increased role of small business in the rapidly changing world. Providing a significant contribution to the country’s gross domestic product and employment indicators, small business is highly flexible and adaptive to changes. World experience shows that a government is able to increase the multiplier effect of private entrepreneurship in the country through a system of measures and strategic programs aimed at its support and development. Such actions of the government should take into account the peculiarities of the territory and unique national advantages. This paper considers the effectiveness of reforms implemented to create a favorable environment for business entities of different levels in Uzbekistan, including small business and private entrepreneurship, based on various economic mechanisms. The study assesses the impact of reforms implemented in different periods on the activity rate and survival rate of business entities. These indicators were calculated on the basis of official statistical information. The methods of mathematical statistics were used to calculate these indicators. The results were evaluated using the methods of comparative and system analysis. In addition, changes in the activity rate and survival rate of small businesses due to economic fluctuations caused by the coronavirus pandemic were investigated.

The hypothesis that military spending affects economic growth and other aspects of the economy has been under scrutiny over the last decades. However, the macroeconomic impact of defense outlays is still an open question for researchers and policymakers. Aiming to contribute to the existing debate, this paper combines Keynesian with monetary theory and develops a discrete-time model that allows for potential fiscal-monetary coordination for financing the military sector in order to examine the effects of defense outlays on income and inflation. Τhe theoretical analysis suggests that military budget expansions can only have temporary effects on income, as in the long run, their impact on the economy is solely inflationary. However, the empirical findings associated with the economy of Turkey are not fully consistent with the theoretical conclusions of the specified model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the dynamics of consumption distribution and to determine how it is affected by macroeconomic fluctuations based on two different types of household classifications: education level of household heads and consumption deciles. The urban Households Income and Expenditure dataset issued by the Statistical Center of Iran and a Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regressive model are used to assess the goals of this study. In other words, we study the consumption responses of different kinds of families to macroeconomic fluctuations. The following results were obtained from statistical analysis and estimation of the model. First, the standard deviation of the (log) real per capita consumption of the lowest group, families that have a head with the lowest education attainments or the first decile, is higher than that of others implying that the Iranian economic fluctuations impose higher costs on the less educated households. Secondly, each of the four education consumption groups and consumption deciles follow the ups and downs of GDP. Lastly, a positive oil revenue shock has only a significant positive impact on the left-hand side of consumption distribution or the consumption of households with low education levels. Also, the shocks reduce consumption inequality among consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by the observation that land supplied by the Chinese government is highly counter-cyclical with GDP fluctuations, this paper constructs a DSGE model to study the relationship between China’s land supply policy and economic fluctuations, and further evaluate the welfare effects. By way of counterfactual exercises, this paper finds that endogenous land supply policy has “direct effect (production input channel)” and “indirect effect (intermediate goods channel)” on GDP fluctuations, and both tend to dampen economic fluctuations in China’s macroeconomy. Specifically, GDP fluctuations increase by 63.35% without the “indirect effect”, increase by 66.75% without the “direct effect”, and increase by 66.79% without both effects. In addition, endogenous land supply policy can increase social welfare by about 1.38%. Verifying by the stylized facts in China, this paper argues that endogenous land supply is an efficient macro-control policy to smooth the economy and increase social welfare.

John Maynard Keynes's (1936) concept of "animal spirits" or "spontaneous optimism" as a major driving force in business fluctuations was motivated in part by his and his contemporaries' observations of human reactions to ambiguous situations where probabilities couldn't be quantified. We can add that in such ambiguity there is evidence that people let contagious popular narratives and the emotions they generate influence their economic decisions. These narratives are typically remote from factual bases, just contagious. Macroeconomic dynamic models must have a theory that is related to models of the transmission of disease in epidemiology. We need to take the contagion of narratives seriously in economic modeling if we are to improve our understanding of animal spirits and their impact on the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a dynamic general equilibrium model with an explicit employment period and investigates economic fluctuations to a temporary productivity shock. Numerical experiments indicate oscillatory responses of new hiring and employment to the shock which are not observed in a standard flexible price model. The explicit employment period constructs an overlapping structure of employment which results in the oscillatory response. This study also examines the effects of change in employment period to economic fluctuations and shows that the variations in new hiring are higher when the employment period is long. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper uses the mixed frequency vector autoregression model to explore the impact of economic fluctuations on infectious diseases mortality (IDM) from China perspective. We find that quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations have a negative impact on the annual IDM, indicating that the mortality of infectious diseases varies counter-cyclically with the business cycle in China. Specifically, IDM usually increases with deterioration in economic conditions, and vice versa. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis I derived from the theoretical analysis, which highlights that economic fluctuations can negatively affect the mortality of infectious diseases. The findings can offer revelations for the government to consider the role of economic conditions in controlling the epidemic of infectious diseases. Policymakers should adopt appropriate and effective strategies to mitigate the potential negative effects of macroeconomic downturns on the mortality of infectious diseases. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these analyses further emphasize the importance of promoting economic growth, increasing public health expenditure, and preventing and controlling foreign infectious diseases.

Copyright of Historia i Polityka is the property of Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)