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Do economic shocks increase labor market inequalities between immigrants and natives? The COVID-19 crisis reduced economic activity for almost all social groups, providing a recent case for answering this question. Research tends to focus on employment levels, overlooking potential inequalities in other job characteristics. Workers in Germany have largely kept their jobs, although their working hours were reduced. Using German high-frequency survey data, we analyze whether there was a difference in the reduction of hours for immigrants and immigrants' descendants (IAD) compared to natives. Since IAD are overrepresented in both heavily affected and essential jobs, we argue that the effects may be heterogeneous across the distribution of the change in hours. As merely comparing averages would ignore this heterogeneity, we employ OLS and quantile treatment effect estimations to analyze working hours changes in the early COVID-19 crisis. Results show that IAD reduced hours more than natives. This effect is particularly pronounced at the lower end of the distribution of the change in working hours. Our findings suggest that IAD experienced economic hardship more often than natives and corroborate earlier findings of increased immigrant-native inequalities in times of crisis. This calls for further investigation of policies aimed at protecting vulnerable groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Firms often assemble digital infrastructures using continuously evolving software applications sourced from a multitude of vendors. Using the theoretical lens of the threat-rigidity thesis, we raise the possibility that during adverse environmental conditions, software-vendor diversification can be a source of organizational rigidity that may dampen firm performance. Empirical analysis using data on 918 large public U.S. firms operating during two severe environmental shocks, the global financial crisis and the burst of the dot-com bubble, lends strong support to our thesis. Results indicate that a variety of firm performance indicators (e.g., stock return and operating income measures) are negatively associated with software-vendor diversification during crisis periods. Mediation analysis highlights the role of IT-related material weakness in firms' internal controls in transmitting threat-rigidity effects that decrease performance. These results underscore the importance of software portfolio optimization for countering the dysfunctional effects of software-vendor diversification during adverse environmental shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the impacts of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 health crisis on U.S. financial indices, exploring the intricate relationship between economic shocks and these indices during downturns. Using Markov switching regression models and control variables, including GDP, consumer sentiment, industrial production, and the ratio of inventories-to-sale, it quantifies the effects of these crises on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from Q1 2000 to Q2 2023, covering crucial moments of both crises and stable periods (dichotomous variables). Results reveal that the 2008 crisis significantly heightened financial volatility and depreciated the valuation of S&P 500 and DJIA indicators, while the COVID-19 crisis had a diverse impact on market dynamics, particularly negatively affecting specific sectors. This study underscores the importance of consumer confidence and inventory management in mitigating financial volatility and emphasises the need for robust policy measures to address economic shocks, enhance financial stability, and alleviate future crises, especially during endogenous crises such as financial downturns. This research sheds light on the nuanced impact of crises on financial markets and the broader economy, revealing the intricate dynamics shaping market behaviour during turbulent times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, the main behavior of fiscal policy is to distribute resources, income, and expenditures, which are interconnected functions of economic stability. Recently, the scope of public sector economics has expanded beyond budgetary components in parallel with the development of public finance. While the budget reached the economic division form of budget items based on program and performance theories, Budget monitoring, and financial risk management are currently challenging, particularly in the face of monetary policy uncertainty. Financial institutions are crucially concerned with the stability of public finance in low-income countries (LICs) as it contributes to improved investor confidence and fiscal decision-making. Hence, economists investigated uncertainty shocks and contributed to managing financial risks with global and energy uncertainty indices. Furthermore, the maturity of digital transformation and artificial intelligence financial applications catalyzed scholars to examine its contributions in the fiscal distress prediction field. Hence, this research aims to integrate artificial intelligence into financial performance analysis to bridge the gap in budget forecasting. The study was aimed at proposing an Economics Division Uncertainty approach (EDUA), which combined (ARIMA) and (LSTM) models for time series analysis of Nuclear Material Authority expenditures over the previous five years divided into quarterly periods, to achieve efficiency in spending. The (ARIMA) model's (ADF) results showed that uncertainty indicators are highly significant. The best (p-value) in the first and second differences in (ARIMA) models is (0.0001) for petroleum items, (0.0001) for solar price rates, (0.001) for the US exchange rate, and (0.003) for electricity price rates, when compared to (EDU_LSTM). Both models have similar accuracy rates, with the best being (EDU_ARIMA) (solar price 97%, USD exchange rate 84%). The second study proposed a composite model of four machine-learning tools to enhance financial performance during financial distress. The study collected (12) indicators from general financial literature and corporate studies, utilizing the (XGBOOST, Random Forest, KNN, and Naïve Bayes) models. Comparing the accuracy results for each model presented different accuracy results in the deep learning models over five years of data. The best accuracy score was for Random Forest at (69%), XGBOOT at (68%), and KNN at (68%). We recommended explainable AI as future research to interpret the budget deficit during the fiscal year period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of this century, the global economy has been hit by a series of unforeseen shocks, including the Global Financial Crisis, the euro area's sovereign debt crisis, and most recently, the global inflation surge. To motivate this special issue, we provide a brief overview of recent methods that have been proposed to improve the ability of forecast models to predict shocks and to capture their effects once they have occurred. We also propose a method that may allow central banks to respond more quickly to the kind of inflationary surge that occurred from 2020 to 2022 so that those banks would not have misdiagnosed the surge as a temporary phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a 2003 article, Karl Moene (University of Oslo) and Michael Wallerstein (Yale University) demonstrated that wealthier citizens tend to support higher spending in social policies directed at the unemployed, while preferring lower spending in policies aimed at the employed. This paper reveals that these findings hinge on two key assumptions: that citizens have a coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA) greater than one, and that all citizens face an equal probability of job loss—a presumption which is not necessarily realistic. By incorporating the observation that job security tends to correlate positively with income, we demonstrate that affluent individuals may still advocate for reduced spending in unemployment policies, even when their CRRA exceeds one. Moreover, a significant shift in the distribution of job security—such as during an abrupt economic crisis—might engender greater societal support for these policies, contrary to their previous research. Finally, empirical data from recent Brazilian history provide analytical support for the theoretical assertions presented herein. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research investigates the trend of containing the impact of external economic shocks on some of the financial variables in countries exporting primary commodities, especially oil — and Iraq is selected as the sample in this research. The purpose of this research is to predict the role of fiscal policy in the context of the impact of external economic shocks on macroeconomic variables. The research adopts the standard methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model test to find the co-integration of the public spending model. The results of the study reveal that a shock in public spending leads to an increase in money supply, inflation and aggregate consumption. The conclusion indicates that there is an equilibrium relationship between the variables of the model (money supply, inflation rate, total consumption, the dummy variable, and government spending). The research’s main recommendation include the diversification of the base of the Iraqi economy and create an economy characterized by a gradual increase in the contribution to other economic sectors. This contributes to the formation of the gross domestic product and the diversification of the structure of public revenues. It also prepares for the change of the Iraqi economy from the rentier economy into the market economy. The aim of the research is to reach findings that prevent the Iraqi economy and the public budget from sudden fluctuations in oil revenues.

Background: This study seeks to understand the empirical nature of macro-financial factors associated with the worsening of HIV infections and the risks that need to be carefully monitored for a sustainable improvement in HIV outcomes as developing countries seek to achieve the United Nations 95-95-95 targets. Methods: The author used a panel VAR model to study the long-term endogenous relationships between percentage changes in the annual spot price of the most traded commodities, GDP per capita, health spending, and the HIV infection rate of developing countries. Results: The author discovered that shocks of global commodity prices negatively impact GDP per capita, real government health spending, and real private health spending. These shocks have adverse spillover effects characterized by worsening HIV infections. The reactions from price shocks suggest that GDP per capita contract immediately when a commodity price shock hits developing economies. Real government health spending and real private health spending also contract instantly. HIV infections begin worsening three years after the shock in the energy and precious metal blocks of countries. HIV infections also begin to worsen two years after shocks in the agricultural block of counties. These impacts are statistically significant and can potentially reverse the positive HIV infection gains achieved in the previous years. Emergency funds, insurance schemes, and international aid for HIV need to discharge more funds to counter these shocks. Conclusions: There is a significant risk of reversing HIV infection outcomes arising from commodity price shocks. Funding agencies must protect HIV prevention services from global macro-economic shocks as countries move closer to the United Nations 95-95-95 targets.

Religious adherence has been hard to study in part because it is hard to measure. We develop a new measure of religious adherence, which is granular in both time and space, using anonymized mobile phone transaction records. After validating the measure with traditional data, we show how it can shed light on the natureof religious adherence in Islamic societies. Exploiting random variation in climate, we find that as economic conditions in Afghanistan worsen, people become more religiously observant. The effects are most pronounced in areas where droughts have the biggest economic consequences, such as croplands without access to irrigation.

Background: This study seeks to understand the empirical nature of macro-financial factors associated with the worsening of HIV infections and the risks that need to be carefully monitored for a sustainable improvement in HIV outcomes as developing countries seek to achieve the United Nations 95-95-95 targets. Methods: The author used a panel VAR model to study the long-term endogenous relationships between percentage changes in the annual spot price of the most traded commodities, GDP per capita, health spending, and the HIV infection rate of developing countries. Results: The author discovered that shocks of global commodity prices negatively impact GDP per capita, real government health spending, and real private health spending. These shocks have adverse spillover effects characterized by worsening HIV infections. The reactions from price shocks suggest that GDP per capita contract immediately when a commodity price shock hits developing economies. Real government health spending and real private health spending also contract instantly. HIV infections begin worsening three years after the shock in the energy and precious metal blocks of countries. HIV infections also begin to worsen two years after shocks in the agricultural block of counties. These impacts are statistically significant and can potentially reverse the positive HIV infection gains achieved in the previous years. Emergency funds, insurance schemes, and international aid for HIV need to discharge more funds to counter these shocks. Conclusions: There is a significant risk of reversing HIV infection outcomes arising from commodity price shocks. Funding agencies must protect HIV prevention services from global macro-economic shocks as countries move closer to the United Nations 95-95-95 targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does austerity influence incumbent support? Existing studies struggle with conceptualizing the evolution of austerity's impact over time, estimating a causal effect, and analysing the reactions of different voters. This study theorizes that the effect of austerity on electoral preferences is not immediate, but gradual, as voters find out about the measures' consequences via the media. It leverages a survey in the field at the time of the austerity announcement in Romania in 2010, additional survey data collected immediately after this event and comprehensive daily media coverage to show that austerity measures do not have an immediate impact on incumbent support, anticipated turnout and expressing a vote preference. Instead, there is a gradual effect that is associated with increased media attention to budgetary cuts. This natural experiment allows the estimation of the immediate causal effect of austerity on electoral intentions. Difference‐in‐differences (DID) models show that the announcement triggered a massive loss of support for the incumbent among those who had voted for the party in power only a few months before. Austerity also led to the demobilization of the governing party's supporters. There is no evidence that those most directly affected by the spending cuts are more likely to punish the incumbent party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a cohort of female sex workers (FSWs) in Senegal to show how large anticipated economic shocks lead to increased risky sexual behavior. Exploiting the exogenous timing of interviews, we study the effect of Tabaski, the most important Islamic festival celebrated in Senegal, in which most households purchase an expensive animal for sacrifice. Condom use, measured robustly via the list experiment, falls by between 27.3 percentage points (pp) (65.5%) and 43.1 pp (22.7%) in the 9 days before Tabaski, or a maximum of 49.5 pp (76%) in the 7 day period preceding Tabaski. The evidence suggests the economic pressures from Tabaski are key to driving the behavior change observed through the price premium for condomless sex. Those most exposed to the economic pressure from Tabaski were unlikely to be using condoms at all in the week before the festival. Our findings show that Tabaski leads to increased risky behaviors for FSWs, a key population at high risk of HIV infection, for at least 1 week every year and has implications for FSWs in all countries celebrating Tabaski or similar festivals. Because of the scale, frequency, and size of the behavioral response to shocks of this type, policy should be carefully designed to protect vulnerable women against anticipated shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of relative changes in policy agenda composition using dynamic compositional models can offer a useful way to lead future studies of policy agenda trade‐offs for sustainability. As a specific empirical case, this study examines changes in the annual composition of legislative attention in the United States congressional hearings on energy as a substantive issue domain. Using the description texts of hearings, this article assesses the compositional energy topic changes of conventional agendas, other general agendas, and unconventional agendas, including environmental and social agendas. By focusing on how economic contextual shocks, along with political factors, shape the energy agenda attention mix, this study discovers that conventional agendas related to energy topics in U.S. congressional hearings are relatively less likely to be discussed when economic conditions are adverse under Democratic legislature controls. It illustrates example conditions under which policy agenda subtopics for sustainability are more likely to be pursued at the expense of which subtopics. Related Articles: Heidbreder, Brianne. 2012. "Agenda Setting in the States: How Politics and Policy Needs Shape Gubernatorial Agendas." Politics & Policy 40(2): 296–319. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00345.x. Morini, Marco, and Marco Cilento. 2020. "New Parties, Fractionalization, and the Increasing Duration of Government Formation Processes in the EU Member States." Politics & Policy 48(6): 1202–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12381. Steger, Wayne P. 2008. "The President's Legislative Program: An Issue of Sincere versus Strategic Behavior." Politics & Policy 33(2): 312–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2005.tb00645.x. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Works on regional resilience have at times borrowed from the engineering and ecological framing of system resilience. In ecological contexts, system resilience is rooted in network structure and its characteristics. Here, we empirically investigate the relationship between regional economic resilience and regional trophic characteristics across regional and national boundaries. We consider 249 NUTS2 regions across 24 countries during the 2000–2010 period. We observe strong links between regional resilience and trophic metrics borrowed from the ecological literature. Our results further highlight regional trophic characteristics as a spatially heterogeneous intermediary for feedback effects between economic structure and output of regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whilst the analysis of the impact of Cohesion Policy funds is well documented, little is known about the short-term consequences of Cohesion Policy during economic crises and its implications for regional resilience. To study these issues, we assemble novel, panel time-series data on Cohesion Policy covering almost four programming periods and different shocks in the European Union. Using heterogeneous coefficients panel models, we find a general positive impact of Cohesion Policy on regional resilience, although with region- and crisis-specific patterns during different shocks. Our results also suggest the presence of regional variation regarding regional labour market resilience over the past three decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID‐19 pandemic resulted in severe income losses, but little is known about its impacts on diets and nutritional adequacy, or the effectiveness of social protection interventions in mitigating dietary and nutritional impacts. We first assess the likely impacts of COVID‐19 shocks in Bangladesh and Myanmar on poverty and food and nutrient consumption gaps. We then analyze the estimated mitigating effects of five hypothetical social protection interventions of a typical monetary value: (1) cash transfers; (2) in‐kind transfers of common rice; (3) in‐kind transfers of fortified rice enriched with multiple essential micronutrients; (4) vouchers for a diversified basket of rice and non‐staple foods; and (5) food vouchers with fortified rice instead of common rice. The simulation results suggest modest effectiveness of the cash transfers for mitigating poverty increases and little effectiveness of all five transfers for preventing increasing food and nutrient consumption gaps among the poorest 40%. Rice fortification is, however, effective at closing key micronutrient consumption gaps and could be a suitable policy instrument for averting "hidden hunger" during economic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research aimed to determine the level of robustness of Polish farms on the example of selected economic and environmental shocks. The current state of knowledge about the concept of resilience is presented, and a research gap regarding the measurement of resilience is identified. Based on the available literature, it was indicated what economic and environmental shocks Polish farms were exposed to in 2010-2019. Then, robustness indicators available in the literature were used to determine the level of resilience of individual groups of farms, divided by type of production. The indicators were calculated based on publicly available data from the FADN database and were related to the dynamics of profitability of economic units. The study showed that the impact of the indicated shocks is noticeable. Moreover, it was found that most of the surveyed farms were able to return to astable state within a year of the shock, indicating that they could be considered resilient. Based on the research conducted, it can be concluded that farms dealing with permanent crops are the most resilient to economic and environmental shocks.

This study delves into the impacts of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 health crisis on U.S. financial indices, exploring the intricate relationship between economic shocks and these indices during downturns. Using Markov switching regression models and control variables, including GDP, consumer sentiment, industrial production, and the ratio of inventories-to-sale, it quantifies the effects of these crises on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from Q1 2000 to Q2 2023, covering crucial moments of both crises and stable periods (dichotomous variables). Results reveal that the 2008 crisis significantly heightened financial volatility and depreciated the valuation of S&P 500 and DJIA indicators, while the COVID-19 crisis had a diverse impact on market dynamics, particularly negatively affecting specific sectors. This study underscores the importance of consumer confidence and inventory management in mitigating financial volatility and emphasises the need for robust policy measures to address economic shocks, enhance financial stability, and alleviate future crises, especially during endogenous crises such as financial downturns. This research sheds light on the nuanced impact of crises on financial markets and the broader economy, revealing the intricate dynamics shaping market behaviour during turbulent times.

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Input–output analysis finds widespread application in estimating the shock effects on production networks within both local and global economies. We are developing a new technology for intersectoral analysis that takes into account the substitution of production factors within a complex supply network triggered by external or internal shocks. This technology is based on the explicit solution of a pair of convex programming problems: the resource allocation problem under the assumption of Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) technologies and the special dual Young problem. Solving these problems, we can ascertain the equilibrium inputs and price indexes of goods within the production network. In this paper, we apply this technology to analyze the economy of Kazakhstan in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our calculations provide us with the means to discuss the macroeconomic responses of the multi-sectoral production network in Kazakhstan to both external and internal shocks stemming from the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study aims at finding evidence of the impacts of economic shocks on the labor markets in Indonesia. Based on the findings, the study would like to revisit the feasibility of the current labor markets policy in the country that is currently moving towards labor market flexibility. To study the topic, this study used a dataset from the 2021 Inter-Regional Input-Output Table for East Java Province, Indonesia. In the analysis, econometric techniques were employed to: (i) identify vulnerable economic sectors to the economic shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, (ii) determine the economic losses resulting from the reduction of outputs, and (iii) determine the impacts on the labor markets that resulted from the reduction in the final demand of the economic sectors. The findings of this study reveal that the sectors that had been most affected by the economic shocks are those that make a significant contribution to the gross domestic product and are heavily dependent on labor. Upon simulating the impacts of economic shocks on the labor markets, the labor-intensive service sectors are the most impacted and succeeded by labor-intensive manufacturing sectors and capital-intensive sectors. Hence, in opposition to the current labor markets policy, the findings suggest policymakers to adopt appropriate labor market policies that promote decent work while sustaining economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A renewed conceptual framework of labour market scarring is developed. Due to economic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, labour market scarring presents an important policy problem. The paper first outlines the theoretical mainstream view on scarring and argues that existing theoretical frame works on labour market scarring are not sufficient to understand the post-COVID labour market for graduates. We identify three areas in which mainstream understanding overlooks and discusses their explanatory value in understanding contextual mediatory factors and non-economic effects of initial scarring. A case is made for qualitative research and career development approaches to understand the processes of scarring as these provide further insight into its socio-psychological manifestations and consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, a common phenomenon in the economy is a global increase in various fluctuations, which are both cyclical and non-cyclical – shock – in nature. The subject of modern discussions is often the discussion of the short-term impact of shocks and the adequacy of the market mechanism to the challenges created by shocks. Overcoming the consequences of the impact of various shocks on the economy, as well as the formation of its shock resistance, is associated by most authors with increased market flexibility, increased government spending and large-scale money emissions – traditional countercyclical tools. At the same time, today exogenous shocks (technological breakthroughs and restrictions, pandemic, sanctions and embargoes) are the most destructive force, which, being outsiders in relation to the economic system, are not sufficiently sensitive to economic countermeasures. Purpose: supplementing the existing methodology for studying economic shocks with new principles and typology, reflecting their connection with structural changes – the key to shock-resistance of the economy. Methods: analysis of the works of Russian and foreign authors in the field of research, generalization of scientific approaches and critical analysis of theoretical positions. The results represent a typology of economic shocks, structured in terms of a number of principles for their study and specification criteria, which form the author's contribution to the development of the methodology for studying non-cyclical phenomena in the economy. Constructive criticism of the existing approaches made it possible to develop a theoretical proposition about the relationship between economic shocks and the structure of the economy, positive changes in which should form the basis of anti-shock regulation. Conclusions. The existing approaches to the analysis of economic shocks adequately describe their impact on economic cycles and are based on the main achievement of the modern market economy – the flexibility of markets and their regulation. At the same time, the strongest exogenous shocks observed today, the impact of which on the transformational Russian economy can become destructive, actualize the search for structural principles to counteract them, which cannot be implemented both without an appropriate theory and methodology, an important part of which is a structurally determined typology of shocks.

This article examines the impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic on recent UK graduates' initial employment outcomes and how they experience the transition into a challenging labour market context. We draw on longitudinal survey and interview data, collected from recent graduates who had mainly graduated during the onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic in summer 2020 that examines graduate perception of the labour market, impacts on labour market entry impacts and early career progression and effects of periods of unemployment or under‐employment. The article shows some of the main impacts of the recent pandemic‐affected labour market, including: widespread concerns about job opportunities and employer support, the perceived employment impacts of the pandemic and early signs of scarring and labour market disorientation amongst those who were struggling to find employment of their choice. Such experiences are clearly intensified during the specific COVID‐19 context, but the policy implications they raise have wider relevance for supporting graduates during future periods of labour market volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examined the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market volatilities in Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Kenya, Ivory Coast, and Ghana using a structural Vector Autoregressive model. The data used for the study spanned from January 2000 to December 2019. Findings from the study showed homogeneity in the response of stock market volatility to oil shocks for both oil importing and oil exporting countries, with slight variances in the timing of pass-through and speed of adjustment. Supply shocks had no significant impact on stock market volatility in all countries considered. In making stock market-related decisions, investors and even policy makers should consider the source and pass-through mechanism of oil price shock in their specific countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between COVID-19 shocks and GDP loss of different countries worldwide based on the seven scenarios of the epidemiological DSGE/CGE model of [McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2020). The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2): 1-30, MIT Press]. We implemented a panel data approach for 24 cross-sectional units with three periods and a general regression neural network. The economic and financial shocks consist of labor supply, equity risk premium, consumption demand, and government expenditure. The findings show that the consumption demand and equity risk premium shocks on GDP are more influential than the other shocks. Moreover, the results reveal that the most significant GDP loss is associated with Japan, Germany, and the US, respectively, which are industrialized countries with the most prominent automobile manufacturers. The lowest GDP loss is linked to Saudi Arabia, one of the world's biggest oil producer countries.

Mass lay-offs from firms and plant restructuring occur regularly and can have potentially large consequences on places and communities. Policy makers may consider supporting firms, in order to prevent mass lay-offs but at the risk of interfering with economic dynamism, or targeting affected workers, to help them transition to new employment. Which strategy (firms versus workers) is the most appropriate and under which circumstances can be informed by better understanding the nature of the economic impact from mass lay-offs. This paper estimates the impact of mass lay-offs between 2008-18 across small regions (TL3) in Europe on regional employment and productivity. It finds there are persistent negative employment effects of mass lay-offs, and rural regions are more negatively affected on average. In part because of differences in the nature of the firm in the region, its relationship with nearby suppliers and clients, and the broader economic context of the region, productivity effects can be both positive and negative over the longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the authors explored the interaction of macroeconomic variables with some form of vague interrelationships. The relevance of factor analysis has demonstrated an existing association between manifest and latent variables in helping the researchers come out with informed and justified suggestions that are relevant to inform effective policy decisions for the central bank action in Sierra Leone. We examine the relationships among some significant manifest and latent variables in a small open economy (Sierra Leone) using time series data spanning from 2005 to 2020. Both international crude oil prices and the local currency in circulation were found to be loadable under two factors (domestic and external), while the exchange rate was observed to be loaded under the external factor. The outcome also proved that the effects of domestic and international economic shocks (sudden but temporarily disrupted) converged (dissipated) after six to eight months. The paper concludes that innovation and energy diversification are important for domestic and external stability in a small open economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop the nonlinear model of optimal resource allocation in a production network with substitution of inputs. The description of production technologies is based on the separation of domestic and import substitution of inputs. That leads to the nested structure of production function of sectors of the economy. Solutions of the optimal resource allocation problem coupled with the solution of the Fenchel's dual problem gives the competitive equilibrium point in the space of products and price indices. Based on results of research we suggest the technique of solution of model identification and calibration tasks based on the official input-output statistics. For the once calibrated model the shock of the initial scenario conditions shifts the evaluated equilibrium state. That allows to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of shocks within the model. We identify and calibrate the model according to the official available input-output statistics of Russia. We present the results of model scenario evaluations of the macroeconomic responses of the Russia's aggregated production network to the modern foreign trade shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The year 2022 got off to a relatively optimistic start for Indonesia's economic managers. Notwithstanding the serious health and social outcomes inflicted by the Covid pandemic, the government had successfully minimised the economic fallout. It could reasonably contemplate a period of sustained economic recovery and rising prosperity in preparation for the 2024 national elections. However, the outlook began to deteriorate in the face of heightened global economic volatility and uncertainty: the economic and geostrategic ramifications of the Ukraine War, a sudden slowdown in the global economy, rising interest rates, historically high and volatile prices for some key commodities, international trade and transport disruptions, uncertainty about China's current economic trajectory and persistent if (so far) manageable Covid challenges. Nevertheless, the Indonesian economy is continuing its steady post-Covid progress: the return to 5% growth in late 2021 continued through to second quarter 2022, inflation remains moderate and living standards are slowly recovering. However, there are potentially major macroeconomic challenges on the horizon. In fiscal policy, there are many demands on the budget, yet there is limited fiscal space, and much of the increased budget revenue this year is again being allocated to subsidies. In monetary policy, there is concern that, as in many countries, the monetary authorities could be 'behind the curve' of rising inflationary pressures. In his 16 August 2022 speech, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) emphasised the importance of the industrial sector and of 'downstreaming' as a means of accelerating industrial growth. Against this backdrop, and the sector's sluggish growth for much of this century, the paper also surveys recent patterns of industrialisation and prospects for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 pandemic, which has announced to the world from Wuhan in China, has naturally formed economic shocks in air transport. As a result of the COVID-19 crisis, governments closed international borders and almost all airlines have drastically reduced their available seat capacity. The aim of this study is to examine the early and late responses such as financial decisions, managing and recovering flights, human resources management and hygiene measures taken by Turkish air carriers in a crisis environment during pandemics and economic shocks. Turkish Civil Aviation Industry (TCAI) is analyzed pre and during COVID-19 in terms of market overview. Finally, we also present current and future directions, and provide examples of the reactions from Turkish and global carriers. The results show that TCAI is heavily impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic and the market is re-shaping with fewer carriers in the recovery phase. Airline staff faced significant salary decreases in TCAI due to revenue decrease of the airlines. Cargo-only flights are increased crucially in the TCAI, although passenger figures are dropped.

In this study, it is aimed to determine whether the effects of economic shocks on the real production level are persistent for the period of 1990:I-2022:I in the Turkish economy by employing the cumulative effect-response functions. In order to interpret both the theoretical and empirical discussions on the concept of continuity in economic shocks within the scope of the Turkish economy, it has been tested whether economic shocks have a permanent effect on the real production level. Whether the economic shocks have a temporary or permanent effect on the real production level, that is, the continuity of the economic shocks, has been determined with the help of the cumulative impact-response functions applied by Campbell and Mankiw (1987a) for the Turkish economy in the 1990-2022 period. The empirical findings have been that the effects of an economic shock in the Turkish economy for any reason last for a maximum of 3-6 months, and at the end of this period, the effects of the shocks diminish and disappear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we sought to identify some economic shocks that have affected the Ghanaian cocoa industry and the effects of these shocks based on available annual data over the 45-year period from 1975 to 2019. The analysis was conducted using a simple autoregressive model of the cocoa industry. The results of the analysis indicated that the major economic shocks affecting the cocoa industry in Ghana were political instability arising from military coups, producer price shock linked to very high producer prices, the La Cote d’Ivoire civil wars between 2002 to 2007, and 2010 to 2011, which resulted in large-scale smuggling of cocoa beans across the border to Ghana for sale, and the El Nino weather shock characterized by severe droughts and very low amounts of rainfall, which dampened the production of cocoa beans in Ghana. The negative shocks were the El Nino weather phenomenon and political instability. The positive shocks were the very high producer prices and La Cote d’Ivoire civil war. We suggest some recommendations. These include increased resourcing of the Ghana Meteorological Agency to improve its prediction of extreme weather effects whose occurrence affect the production of crops such as cocoa, the establishment of bigger price stabilization funds by the Ghana Cocoa Board to support the cocoa industry, and research studies to analyse the apparent link between dramatic drop in cocoa production and explosive depreciation of the Ghanaian currency, the Ghana cedi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We combine data collected just prior to the unfolding of COVID-19 with follow-up data from July 2020 to document the adverse economic effects of the pandemic and resulting impact on parental and child mental well-being in peri-urban Pakistan. 22% of the households in our sample are affected by job loss, with monthly income down 38% on average. Our difference-in-difference results show that job loss is associated with a 0.88 standard deviation (SD) increase in adult mental distress scores (K10), a 0.43 SD reduction in a Hope index of children's aspirations, agency and future pathways, and a 0.39 SD increase in children's depression symptoms. In addition, we observe higher levels of parental stress and anger reported by children, as well as an increase in reported prevalence of domestic violence. Overall, we document that the pandemic has disproportionately and negatively affected the economic and mental well-being of the most vulnerable households in our sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]