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Previous studies have indicated that the extratropics can influence ENSO via specific processes. However, it is still unclear to what extent ENSO is influenced by the extratropics in observation. Now we assess this issue by applying the regional data assimilation (RDA) approach in an advanced model, the GFDL CM2.1. Our study confirms a strong extratropical impact on observed ENSO. Quantitatively, the extratropical atmospheric variability poleward of 20° explains 56% of the observed variance of ENSO and greatly influences ∼67% of observed El Niño events during 1969–2008. This extratropical impact is still significant even as far as poleward of 30°. Furthermore, the impact from the southern extratropics is slightly stronger than that from the northern extratropics, partly caused by the Pacific ITCZ location north of the equator and different mixed-layer depth along the northern Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) and the southern Pacific meridional mode (SPMM). Our study further shows that all of three super El Niño events, those in 1972/73, 1982/83, and 1997/98, are influenced greatly by both hemispheric extratropics, with NPMM and SPMM interfering constructively, while most weak and moderate El Niño events are triggered by only one hemispheric extratropics, with NPMM and SPMM interfering destructively. Besides the extratropical Pacific influence on ENSO via NPMM/SPMM, the extratropics also has a potential impact on ENSO by influencing other tropical oceans and then by interbasin interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve cloud feedback understanding and simulation, observations have been used to quantify the rate of change of cloud radiative properties as a function of specific environmental metrics (or cloud controlling factors; CCFs). The study focuses on low‐level cloud dominated regions during 2006–2010. For each ocean gridpoint, Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of daily mean observed cloud fraction versus (a) 10‐m wind, (b) sensible heat flux (SHF), (c) sea surface temperature, (d) estimated inversion strength (EIS), (e) 850 hPa vertical velocity, and (f) the M parameter (∆θskin800hPa ${\increment}{\theta }_{\text{skin}}^{800\text{hPa}}$) are sorted to identify the dominant CCFs in both extratropics (30°–60°N/S) and subtropics (30°S–30°N). A novel map for visualizing dominant CCFs for low‐level cloud fraction reveals that: ∆θskin800hPa ${\increment}{\theta }_{\text{skin}}^{800\text{hPa}}$ dominates in the subtropical stratocumulus regions while 10‐m winds dominate in shallow cumulus regions but in the extratropics, a different inversion structure diagnostic (EIS) dominates, while SHF dominates in western boundary current areas. Plain Language Summary: Clouds in the lower levels of the atmosphere cover up to 80% of the oceans in some specific areas within the ±30° latitude band (i.e., the subtropics regions) but also cover a large portion of the mid‐latitude oceans (i.e., the extratropics). In the subtropics, cloud cover has been found to depend principally on sea surface temperature and the stability or thermal structure of the lower levels of the troposphere. Using satellite observations and reanalysis data, we test whether these relationships are found everywhere, and importantly, we find that these dependencies are not uniform across the global oceans. Where cloud cover is large, stability is the strongest driver of cloud cover, but the atmospheric vertical structure of this stability most strongly correlated with the clouds differs between the subtropics and extratropics. Where cloud cover is relatively small, near surface wind speed has the strongest relationship with cloud cover in the subtropics, while at higher latitudes and more specifically in the western boundary current regions, air‐sea energy exchanges (i.e., sensible heat flux) dominate. These regionally varying relationships are depicted with a novel map of dominant cloud controlling factors. This map can help with evaluation and development of climate models. Key Points: A novel map of dominant controlling factors for low‐level oceanic cloud fraction reveals regionally varying patternsSubtropical and extratropical low clouds depend on stability, but the dominant stability metric varies by region, challenging modelsSurface wind speed dominates in cumulus‐dominated regions, sensible heat fluxes dominate in western boundary current regions in winter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract To improve cloud feedback understanding and simulation, observations have been used to quantify the rate of change of cloud radiative properties as a function of specific environmental metrics (or cloud controlling factors; CCFs). The study focuses on low‐level cloud dominated regions during 2006–2010. For each ocean gridpoint, Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of daily mean observed cloud fraction versus (a) 10‐m wind, (b) sensible heat flux (SHF), (c) sea surface temperature, (d) estimated inversion strength (EIS), (e) 850 hPa vertical velocity, and (f) the M parameter (∆θskin800hPa) are sorted to identify the dominant CCFs in both extratropics (30°–60°N/S) and subtropics (30°S–30°N). A novel map for visualizing dominant CCFs for low‐level cloud fraction reveals that: ∆θskin800hPa dominates in the subtropical stratocumulus regions while 10‐m winds dominate in shallow cumulus regions but in the extratropics, a different inversion structure diagnostic (EIS) dominates, while SHF dominates in western boundary current areas.

The influence of mid–high-latitude intraseasonal variability (ISV) on the occurrence frequency of the Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) in early summer was examined through statistical analysis and thermal–dynamic diagnostics. A multivariable empirical orthogonal function (MVEOF) was employed to extract the thermal–pressure coupled ISV mode. Our results show that the geopotential height and air temperature over the NCCV active region exhibit a statistically significant intraseasonal periodicity of 20–60 days. The dominant ISV mode features a westward-propagated zonal dipole pattern, which is generated over the Lake Baikal region and triggered by intraseasonal wave energy accumulation. By dividing the ISV cycle into eight phases, it is found that more NCCVs with a large scope occur in phases 5–8 than those in phases 1–4. The positive (negative) geopotential height and air temperature tendencies in phases 1–4 (5–8) act to suppress (facilitate) the NCCV activity. The thermodynamic tendency budget and scale decomposition reveal that when an anomalous intraseasonal cyclonic circulation propagates westward from Lake Baikal to the Ural Mountains, the anomalous southwesterly transports mean negative vorticity from the north side of the Tibetan Plateau to Northeast Asia and transports mean warm air temperature from low latitudes to high latitudes, leading to the positive geopotential height and air temperature tendencies and thereby restraining the NCCV activity. The opposite is also true for the facilitation of the NCCV modulated by the negative geopotential height and air temperature tendencies. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to better understand the factors controlling the Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) activity in early summer. It is important because influences of the subtropical monsoonal circulation are usually confined to southern China in this season and the anomalous atmospheric circulation from the mid–high latitudes plays a more important role in the generation of the NCCV. Our results provide a guide on how intraseasonal variability at mid–high latitudes controls the occurrence frequency of the NCCV and highlight the process of thermal and dynamical modulation in the NCCV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal summer extratropical intraseasonal oscillation (EISO) is crucial in modulating regional subseasonal variation and particularly causing extreme meteorological events, but it has yet to be well clarified and operationally monitored. This study first objectively sorts out three dominant EISOs trapped along two extratropical westerly jet streams over Eurasia, and then proposes the corresponding real-time metrics. The three dominant EISOs are (i) an 8–25-day eastward-propagating wave along the subtropical westerly jet (EISO-SJE) initiating at the exit of the North America–North Atlantic jet and strengthening over the Black Sea–Caspian Sea–arid central Asia region; (ii) a 10–30-day eastward-traveling wave along the polar front jet (EISO-PJE), starting near Scandinavia and enhancing from the East European Plain to the West Siberian Plain and then decaying over the Okhotsk region; (iii) a 10–40-day westward-migrating wave along the polar front jet (EISO-PJW), which enhances near the Ural Mountains and weakens over Scandinavia. The real-time metrics then, following the three EISOs, have been constructed, and they are able to capture the spatiotemporal features of three EISOs in application. Moreover, the close linkages between these EISOs and the regional extremes/the blocking occurrence have been clearly demonstrated, confirming the importance of real-time EISO metrics. Together with tropical intraseasonal oscillation, this study provides the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) community with a well-portrayed unified picture of extratropical intraseasonal waves and the real-time metrics for monitoring boreal summer intraseasonal signals over Eurasia and facilitate subseasonal predictions. Significance Statement: Boreal summer extratropical intraseasonal oscillation (EISO) has drawn increasing attention owing to its importance in triggering extreme weather events and affecting regional subseasonal prediction. However, despite the urgent need of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) community, a comprehensive delineation of EISO diversity and real-time EISO monitoring remain the gap of knowledge. This study objectively sorts out and comprehensively clarifies three dominant EISOs trapped along two extratropical westerly jet streams over Eurasia. More importantly, the well-portrayed real-time EISO metrics are constructed based on three EISOs, which are applicable for operational real-time monitoring, subseasonal prediction, and model evaluation. This study stimulates an extratropical focus in the S2S community as a complementary component in addition to monitoring the MJO's teleconnection to the mid- to high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical downscaling (SD) of climate change projections is a key piece for impact and adaptation studies due to its low computational expense compared to dynamical downscaling, which allows exploration of uncertainties through the generation of large ensembles. SD has been extensively evaluated and applied in the extratropics, but few examples exist in tropical regions. In this study, several state-of-the-art methods belonging to different families have been evaluated for maximum/minimum daily temperature and daily accumulated precipitation (both from the ERA5 at 0.258) in two regions with very different climates: Spain (midlatitudes) and Central America (tropics). Some key assumptions of SD have been tested: the strength of the predictor–predictand links, the skill of different approaches, and the extrapolation capability of each method. It has been found that relevant predictors are different in both regions, as is the behavior of statistical methods. For temperature, most methods perform significantly better in Spain than in Central America, where transfer function (TF) methods present important extrapolation problems, probably due to the low variability of the training sample (present climate). In both regions, model output statistics (MOS) methods have achieved the best results for temperature. In Central America, TF methods have achieved better results than MOS methods in the evaluation in the present climate, but they do not preserve trends in the future. For precipitation, MOS methods and the extreme gradient boost machine learning method have achieved the best results in both regions. In addition, it has been found that, although the use of humidity indices as predictors improves results for the downscaling of precipitation, future trends given by statistical methods are very sensitive to the use of one or another index. Three indices have been compared: relative humidity, specific humidity, and dewpoint depression. The use of the specific humidity has been found to lead to trends given by the downscaled projections that deviate seriously from those given by raw global climate models in both regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The double–intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias has been an outstanding problem among climate models for two decades. However, it remains unclear how much of this tropical bias is attributed to the extratropics and tropics itself, respectively. Applying the regional data assimilation (RDA) method, we follow up a previous study with a more advanced model of GFDL CM2.1 to quantify the influence of extratropical atmosphere on the double-ITCZ bias. Our study reveals that this tropical bias is influenced to a large extent by the extratropics between 20° and 30°, with little impact from the extratropics poleward of 30°. This vital role of subtropics in the double-ITCZ bias is likely determined by the meridional extent of Hadley circulation from zonal-mean perspective. Besides, the vital role of subtropics is also supported by wind–evaporation–SST feedback in the subtropical southeastern Pacific from a regional perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can remarkably impact tropospheric circulation. Based on the diagnosis of reanalysis data, this study finds that the location shift rather than the strength change dominates the intraseasonal variability of SPV. Further analysis suggests that it couples well with the tropospheric circulation, forming an intraseasonal stratosphere–troposphere oscillation (STO). The STO shows periodic westward propagation throughout its life cycle and has a deep structure extending from the troposphere to the stratosphere. It reflects the movement of the SPV toward North America, then the North Pacific, Eurasia, and the North Atlantic, and causes significant changes in surface air temperature over North America and East Asia. The mechanism of the STO involves Rossby wave propagation between the troposphere and stratosphere and cross-scale interactions in the troposphere. Upward Rossby wave propagation from the troposphere over East Asia maintains the STO's stratospheric component, and the reflection of these waves back to the troposphere contributes substantially to the STO's tropospheric center over North America. Meanwhile, the linear and nonlinear processes explain the STO's westward propagation in the troposphere, which facilities vertical wave propagation changes. The STO unifies the SPV shifts, the retrograding tropospheric disturbances, and the wave coupling processes into one framework and provides a holistic view for a better understanding of the intraseasonal stratosphere–troposphere coupling. Given its oscillating nature, time scale, and widespread surface response, the STO may be a potential source of predictability for the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Significance Statement: Stratospheric circulation plays a vital role in influencing tropospheric weather and climate, but its variability and coupling with the troposphere have not been fully understood for the intraseasonal time scale. This study finds that the Northern Annular Mode is the leading mode of variability in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere stratosphere on time scales longer than 60 days, which reflects the changes in the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex. In contrast, the shift of the stratospheric polar vortex excels as the leading mode on time scales shorter than 60 days and is identified as a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation (STO) phenomenon. In the stratosphere, the STO is characterized by the shift of the polar vortex and rotates clockwise with time. In the troposphere, the STO is manifested as a large-scale westward-propagating circulation in the midlatitudes, with significant near-surface temperature anomalies across the continents. The formation of the STO is further attributed to the vertical and horizontal Rossby wave propagation. As STO is a periodic oscillation, it may serve as a potential predictability source for subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northern and Southern Hemispheres reflect on average almost equal amounts of sunlight due to compensating hemispheric asymmetries in clear-sky and cloud albedo. Recent work indicates that the cloud albedo asymmetry is largely due to clouds in extratropical oceanic regions. Here, we investigate the proximate causes of this extratropical cloud albedo asymmetry using a cloud-controlling factor (CCF) approach. We develop a simple index that measures the skill of CCFs, either individually or in combination, in predicting the asymmetry. The index captures the contribution to the asymmetry due to interhemispheric differences in the probability distribution function of daily CCF values. Cloud albedo is quantified using daily MODIS satellite retrievals, and is related to range of CCFs derived from the ERA5 product. We find that sea surface temperature is the CCF that individually explains the largest fraction of the asymmetry, followed by surface wind. The asymmetry is predominantly due to low clouds, and our results are consistent with prior local-scale modeling work showing that marine boundary layer clouds become thicker and more extensive as surface wind increases and surface temperature cools. The asymmetry is consistent with large-scale control of storm-track intensity and surface winds by meridional temperature gradients: persistently cold and windy conditions in the Southern Hemisphere keep cloud albedo high year-round. Our results have important implications for global-scale cloud feedbacks and contribute to efforts to develop a theory for planetary albedo and its symmetry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reversal of zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial Atlantic is a common bias in climate models. Studies to investigate the origin of this bias mainly focused on the tropics itself. Applying the regional data assimilation method in the GFDL CM2.1 model, we investigate the combined and respective influences of the northern and southern extratropics on this bias. It is found that the reversed zonal SST gradient bias is caused to a considerable extent by the extratropical atmosphere, especially by the northern extratropics. This extratropical impact on the equator occurs mainly through influencing the Hadley circulation. Therefore, the ITCZ position in boreal spring in this model most likely determines the dominant role of northern extratropics in the spring equatorial westerly bias and additionally the zonal SST gradient bias. Due to the cold bias in the extratropical atmosphere, the northward shift of the ITCZ coupled with the increased meridional SST gradient caused by assimilating the northern extratropics strengthens the cross-equatorial southeasterly wind, thus correcting the spring equatorial westerly bias. The strengthened spring equatorial easterlies further steepen the thermocline slope and enhance the eastern upwelling, thus reproducing the summer cold tongue and finally improving the annual-mean zonal SST gradient bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A proposal to characterize seasons based on the annual cycle of daily mean temperature over extratropical regions is presented. Four metrics are computed, based on the dates along the year when the maximum and minimum temperature values and the maximum warming and cooling (when the rate of temperatura change is maximum or minimum) are obtained. These four metrics are computed for 1980–2014 period for ERA‐Interim, JRA‐55 and NCEP2 reanalysis products. Results indicate that these four metrics are able to represent, with geographical coherence over any extratropical region, the start and end of subperiods along the year and that can be seen and used as a consistent procedure to define seasons. The two more extreme metrics (dates for the maximum and minimum temperature) are closely influenced by the variability of the net radiation and near‐surface circulation. Regions with different climatic regimes, defined in terms of land–atmosphere coupling conditions, have different contributing factors influencing the interannual variability of the metrics. In humid regions the net surface radiation is critical for the timing of the maximum temperature date, while the variability of the atmospheric circulation is relevant for the minimum temperature metric. In transitional regions, land–atmosphere interaction plays a key role in the timing of the annual cycle, both in summer and winter. Variations in net radiation are relevant for dry regions. Therefore, a robust methodology to establish seasons based on the annual temperature cycle is presented. We also inspect how the metrics timing responds in terms of the interannual variations of different relevant atmospheric variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aircraft flying through areas of high ice water content (HIWC) can experience engine damage and/or failure. HIWC is typically associated with convection and the microphysical properties of tropical oceanic and coastal convection are well documented as a result of several field campaigns in the past decade. HIWC appears to be less common in extratropical convection, but instances of HIWC-related aircraft issues have been recorded in extratropical weather, even during winter. The present study documents the microphysical properties of HIWC between −25° and 0°C and the meteorological and thermodynamic conditions around that HIWC from five flights from the In-Cloud Icing and Large-Drop Experiment (ICICLE) in the midwestern United States in February 2019. All five cases contained elevated convection above a strong low-level temperature inversion. Values for top-of-inversion mixing ratios and total column precipitable water were about 5 g kg−1 and 20 mm, respectively, according to soundings near each case. A maximum ice water content of 2.1 g m−3 was observed over a length scale of about 500 m, and ice particle size distributions had mean volume equivalent diameters around 1000 μm. Supercooled drizzle droplets were also observed in the vicinity of the HIWC, raising questions about the possible role of secondary ice production via the freezing and shattering of supercooled large droplets in HIWC formation. The generalizability of these results is limited by the small number of cases, but they provide some of the first in situ observations of extratropical winter HIWC and highlight the need for continued research on these conditions. Significance Statement: High ice water content (HIWC) conditions can cause engine damage, stall, and failure in aircraft and can cause air data probes to report erroneous values. Most research on HIWC has focused on tropical convection. This paper serves to draw more attention to the aviation hazard posed by extratropical winter HIWC and the need for additional research into these environments. The cases examined also contained supercooled precipitation-sized liquid droplets. Combined with other recent research, these observations may help to motivate laboratory experiments investigating the role of secondary ice production via droplet freezing and shattering in the formation of HIWC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experiments with seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models were used to assess the climate feedback parameter for net historical, historical greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol forcings. The net radiative feedback is found to be more amplifying (higher effective climate sensitivity) for aerosol than GHG forcing, and hence also less amplifying for net historical (GHG + aerosol) than GHG only. We demonstrate that this difference is consistent with their different latitudinal distributions. Historical aerosol forcing is most pronounced in northern extratropics, where the boundary layer is decoupled from the free troposphere, so the consequent temperature change is confined to low altitude and causes low‐level cloud changes. This is caused by change in stability, which also affects upper‐tropospheric clear‐sky emission, affecting both shortwave and longwave radiative feedbacks. This response is a feature of extratropical forcing generally, regardless of its sign or hemisphere. Plain Language Summary: Understanding how the Earth's surface temperatures change in accordance with the anomalous energy flow into the system due to changes in greenhouse gases (GHGs) or anthropogenic aerosols is vital for predicting future temperature change. New data have made it possible to better calculate how efficiently the planet responds to temperature change (so as to return to energy equilibrium) for historical aerosols and GHGs. We find that the Earth requires greater surface temperature changes under aerosol climate forcing than it does for GHGs in order to balance out incoming and outgoing energy into the Earth system. By comparing with experiments that prescribe energy changes only outside the tropics, we find that the lower efficiency of aerosols in damping the radiative imbalance is related to their being mainly located away from the equator, unlike GHGs which are generally well mixed throughout the globe. This forcing away from the equator is tied to the vertical distribution of temperature changes. This distribution affects how efficiently surface temperature change leads to balancing the incoming and outgoing energy into the Earth system. Surface temperature can thus change differently for the same global average forcings. Key Points: Effective climate sensitivity is larger (feedback more amplifying) for historical anthropogenic aerosol than greenhouse‐gas (GHG) forcing in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6The key difference is that GHG forcing is global and aerosols are mainly extratropical (and aerosol hemispheric contrast unimportant)Extratropical forcing causes a shallower temperature response than tropical forcing, hence more amplifying cloud and lapse‐rate feedbacks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics and mechanisms of extreme precipitation events over central Asia are investigated based on daily data and percentile criteria. The composited extreme precipitation events have a life cycle of about 10 days. The precipitation signal is weak but significant from eight to two days before the peak. Then it amplifies rapidly and reaches its peak in two days. The earliest precipitation signal appears over the northwest of central Asia and moves southeastward. It maximizes over northern central Asia and the windward side of the mountainous region, suggesting the role of orography in the precipitation extremes. Diagnosis suggests that the precipitation extremes are closely tied to a quasi-stationary planetary wave train emanating from the North Atlantic and the resultant disturbed Asian subtropical jet. The sharpened and accelerated Atlantic jet 10 days before the precipitation peak feeds a cyclonic anomaly at its exit region, which disperses energy downstream and forms a well-defined barotropic Rossby wave train in the Asian subtropical jet, resulting in an anomalous cyclone to the west of central Asia. On the one hand, the cyclone-induced water vapor transport into central Asia enhances the moisture content and increases the convective instability in the lower troposphere, providing a favorable thermodynamical condition for deep convections. On the other hand, the vorticity and temperature advection induced by this cyclone and the mechanical lifting on the windward side of mountains provide a favorable dynamical condition for ascending motion, which triggers the release of convective instability and the occurrence of precipitation extremes in central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing a multimodel ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea ice loss using a two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, the sensitivity to high-latitude sea ice loss is isolated and contrasted to the sensitivity to low-latitude warming. Despite some differences in experimental design, the Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice loss is found to be robust across models in the cold season; however, a larger intermodel spread is found at the surface in boreal summer, and in the free tropospheric circulation. In contrast, the sensitivity to low-latitude warming is most robust in the free troposphere and in the warm season, with more intermodel spread in the surface ocean and surface heat flux over the Northern Hemisphere. The robust signals associated with sea ice loss include upward turbulent and longwave heat fluxes where sea ice is lost, warming and freshening of the Arctic Ocean, warming of the eastern North Pacific Ocean relative to the western North Pacific with upward turbulent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, and salinification of the shallow shelf seas of the Arctic Ocean alongside freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the robust signals associated with low-latitude warming include intensified ocean warming and upward latent heat fluxes near the western boundary currents, freshening of the Pacific Ocean, salinification of the North Atlantic, and downward sensible and longwave fluxes over the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and cold SST anomalies in the east Pacific, the unusually quiet hurricane season in 2013 was a surprise to the hurricane community. The authors' analyses suggest that the substantially suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in August 2013 can be attributed to frequent breaking of midlatitude Rossby waves, which led to the equatorward intrusion of cold and dry extratropical air. The resultant mid- to upper-tropospheric dryness and strong vertical wind shear hindered TC development. Using the empirical orthogonal function analysis, the active Rossby wave breaking in August 2013 was found to be associated with a recurrent mode of the midlatitude jet stream over the North Atlantic, which represents the variability of the intensity and zonal extent of the jet. This mode is significantly correlated with Atlantic hurricane frequency. The correlation coefficient is comparable to the correlation of Atlantic hurricane frequency with the main development region (MDR) relative SST and higher than that with the Niño-3.4 index. This study highlights the extratropical impacts on Atlantic TC activity, which may have important implications for the seasonal predictability of Atlantic TCs.

With warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and cold SST anomalies in the east Pacific, the unusually quiet hurricane season in 2013 was a surprise to the hurricane community. The authors' analyses suggest that the substantially suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in August 2013 can be attributed to frequent breaking of midlatitude Rossby waves, which led to the equatorward intrusion of cold and dry extratropical air. The resultant mid- to upper-tropospheric dryness and strong vertical wind shear hindered TC development. Using the empirical orthogonal function analysis, the active Rossby wave breaking in August 2013 was found to be associated with a recurrent mode of the midlatitude jet stream over the North Atlantic, which represents the variability of the intensity and zonal extent of the jet. This mode is significantly correlated with Atlantic hurricane frequency. The correlation coefficient is comparable to the correlation of Atlantic hurricane frequency with the main development region (MDR) relative SST and higher than that with the Niño-3.4 index. This study highlights the extratropical impacts on Atlantic TC activity, which may have important implications for the seasonal predictability of Atlantic TCs.

Allometric equations for calculation of tree above‐ground biomass (AGB) form the basis for estimates of forest carbon storage and exchange with the atmosphere. While standard models exist to calculate forest biomass across the tropics, we lack a standardized tool for computing AGB across boreal and temperate regions that comprise the global extratropics.Here we present an integrated R package, allodb, containing systematically selected published allometric equations and proposed functions to compute AGB. The data component of the package is based on 701 woody species identified at 24 large Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO) forest dynamics plots representing a wide diversity of extratropical forests.A total of 570 parsed allometric equations to estimate individual tree biomass were retrieved, checked and combined using a weighting function designed to ensure optimal equation selection over the full tree size range with smooth transitions across equations. The equation dataset can be customized with built‐in functions that subset the original dataset and add new equations.Although equations were curated based on a limited set of forest communities and number of species, this resource is appropriate for large portions of the global extratropics and can easily be expanded to cover novel forest types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the course of his career, Fuqing Zhang drew vital new insights into the dynamics of meteorologically significant mesoscale gravity waves (MGWs), including their generation by unbalanced jet streaks, their interaction with fronts and organized precipitation, and their importance in midlatitude weather and predictability. Zhang was the first to deeply examine "spontaneous balance adjustment"—the process by which MGWs are continuously emitted as baroclinic growth drives the upper-level flow out of balance. Through his pioneering numerical model investigation of the large-amplitude MGW event of 4 January 1994, he additionally demonstrated the critical role of MGW–moist convection interaction in wave amplification. Zhang's curiosity-turned-passion in atmospheric science covered a vast range of topics and led to the birth of new branches of research in mesoscale meteorology and numerical weather prediction. Yet, it was his earliest studies into midlatitude MGWs and their significant impacts on hazardous weather that first inspired him. Such MGWs serve as the focus of this review, wherein we seek to pay tribute to his groundbreaking contributions, review our current understanding, and highlight critical open science issues. Chief among such issues is the nature of MGW amplification through feedback with moist convection, which continues to elude a complete understanding. The pressing nature of this subject is underscored by the continued failure of operational numerical forecast models to adequately predict most large-amplitude MGW events. Further research into such issues therefore presents a valuable opportunity to improve the understanding and forecasting of this high-impact weather phenomenon, and in turn, to preserve the spirit of Zhang's dedication to this subject. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been recently linked with extratropical Pacific Ocean atmospheric variability. The two key mechanisms connecting the atmospheric variability of the extratropical Pacific with ENSO are the heat flux–driven "seasonal footprinting mechanism" (SFM) and the ocean dynamics–driven "trade wind charging" (TWC) mechanism. However, their relative contributions to ENSO are still unknown. Here we present modeling evidence that the positive phase of the SFM generates a weaker, short-lived central Pacific El Niño–like warming pattern in the autumn, whereas the TWC positive phase leads to a wintertime eastern Pacific El Niño–like warming. When both mechanisms are active, a strong, persistent El Niño develops. While both mechanisms can trigger equatorial wind anomalies that generate an El Niño, the strength and persistence of the warming depends on the subsurface heat content buildup by the TWC mechanism. These results suggest that while dynamical coupling associated with extratropical forcing is crucial to maintain an El Niño, thermodynamical coupling is an extratropical source of El Niño diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relation between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and California precipitation has been studied extensively and plays a prominent role in seasonal forecasting. However, a wide range of precipitation outcomes on seasonal time scales are possible, even during extreme ENSO states. Here, we investigate prediction skill and its origins on subseasonal time scales. Model predictions of California precipitation are examined using Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) reforecasts for the period 1999–2016, focusing on those from the Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM). Two potential sources of subseasonal predictability are examined: the tropical Pacific Ocean and upper-level zonal winds near California. In both observations and forecasts, the Niño-3.4 index exhibits a weak and insignificant relationship with daily to monthly averages of California precipitation. Likewise, model tropical sea surface temperature and outgoing longwave radiation show only minimal relations with California precipitation forecasts, providing no evidence that flavors of El Niño or tropical modes substantially contribute to the success or failure of subseasonal forecasts. On the other hand, an index for upper-level zonal winds is strongly correlated with precipitation in observations and forecasts, across averaging windows and lead times. The wind index is related to ENSO, but the correlation between the wind index and precipitation remains even after accounting for ENSO phase. Intriguingly, the Niño-3.4 index and California precipitation show a slight but robust negative statistical relation after accounting for the wind index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow intense moisture transport, account for much of the poleward moisture transport in midlatitudes. While studies have characterized AR features and the associated hydrological impacts in a warming climate in observations and comprehensive climate models, the fundamental dynamics for changes in AR statistics (e.g., frequency, length, width) are not well understood. Here we investigate AR response to global warming with a combination of idealized and comprehensive climate models. To that end, we developed an idealized atmospheric GCM with Earth-like global circulation and hydrological cycle, in which water vapor and clouds are modeled as passive tracers with simple cloud microphysics and precipitation processes. Despite the simplicity of the model physics, it reasonably reproduces observed dynamical structures for individual ARs, statistical characteristics of ARs, and spatial distributions of AR climatology. Under climate warming, the idealized model produces robust AR changes similar to CESM large ensemble simulations under RCP8.5, including AR size expansion, intensified landfall moisture transport, and an increased AR frequency, corroborating previously reported AR changes under global warming by climate models. In addition, the latitude of AR frequency maximum shifts poleward with climate warming. Further analysis suggests that the thermodynamic effect (i.e., an increase in water vapor) dominates the AR statistics and frequency changes while both the dynamic and thermodynamic effects contribute to the AR poleward shift. These results demonstrate that AR changes in a warming climate can be understood as passive water vapor and cloud tracers regulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation, whereas convection and latent heat feedback are of secondary importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A set of 30-day reforecast experiments, focused on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) cool season (November–March), is performed to quantify the remote impacts of tropical forecast errors on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). The approach is to nudge the model toward reanalyses in the tropics and then measure the change in skill at higher latitudes as a function of lead time. In agreement with previous analogous studies, results show that midlatitude predictions tend to be improved in association with reducing tropical forecast errors during weeks 2–4, particularly over the North Pacific and western North America, where gains in subseasonal precipitation anomaly pattern correlations are substantial. It is also found that tropical nudging is more effective at improving NH subseasonal predictions in cases where skill is relatively low in the control reforecast, whereas it tends to improve fewer cases that are already relatively skillful. By testing various tropical nudging configurations, it is shown that tropical circulation errors play a primary role in the remote modulation of predictive skill. A time-dependent analysis suggests a roughly 1-week lag between a decrease in tropical errors and an increase in NH predictive skill. A combined tropical nudging and conditional skill analysis indicates that improved Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) predictions throughout its life cycle could improve weeks 3–4 NH precipitation predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An effective method to understand cloud processes and to assess the fidelity with which they are represented in climate models is the cloud controlling factor framework, in which cloud properties are linked with variations in large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical variables. This study examines how midlatitude cloud radiative effects (CRE) over oceans covary with four cloud controlling factors—midtropospheric vertical velocity, estimated inversion strength (EIS), near-surface temperature advection, and sea surface temperature (SST)—and assesses their representation in CMIP6 models with respect to observations and CMIP5 models. CMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude CRE to perturbations in vertical velocity and underestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude shortwave CRE to perturbations in EIS and temperature advection. The largest improvement in CMIP6 models is a reduced sensitivity of CRE to vertical velocity perturbations. As in CMIP5 models, many CMIP6 models simulate a shortwave cloud radiative warming effect associated with a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet stream, an effect not present in observations. This bias arises because most models' shortwave CRE are too sensitive to vertical velocity perturbations and not sensitive enough to EIS perturbations, and because most models overestimate the SST anomalies associated with SH jet shifts. The presence of this bias directly impacts the transient surface temperature response to increasing greenhouse gases over the Southern Ocean, but not the global-mean surface temperature. Instead, the models' climate sensitivity is correlated with their shortwave CRE sensitivity to surface temperature advection perturbations near 40°S, with models with more realistic values of temperature advection sensitivity generally having higher climate sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-impact events such as heat waves and droughts are often associated with persistent positive geopotential height anomalies (PAs). Understanding how PA activity will change in a future warmer climate is therefore fundamental to projecting associated changes in weather and climate extremes. This is a complex problem because the dynamics of PAs and their associated blocking activity are still poorly understood. Furthermore, climate change influences on PA activity may be geographically dependent and encompass competing influences. To expose the salient impacts of climate change, we use an oceanic channel configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model in a bivariate experiment focused on changes in environmental temperature, moisture, and baroclinicity. The 500-hPa wind speed and flow variability are found to increase with increasing temperature and baroclinicity, driven by increases in latent heat release and a stronger virtual temperature gradient. Changes to 500-hPa sinuosity are negligible. PAs are objectively identified at the 500-hPa level using an anomaly threshold method. When using a fixed threshold, PA trends indicate increased activity and strength with warming but decreased activity and strength with Arctic amplification. Use of a climate-relative threshold hides these trends and highlights the importance of accurate characterization of the mean flow. Changes in PA activity mirror corresponding changes in 500-hPa flow variability and are found to be attributable to changes in three distinct dynamical mechanisms: baroclinic wave activity, virtual temperature effects, and latent heat release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropopause-penetrating convection (or “overshooting convection” [OC]) is defined as a meso-to-microscale stratosphere–troposphere exchange process caused by deep convection. OC plays an important role in stratosphere–troposphere exchange and in producing turbulence. Compared with the tropics, the characteristics of OC in the extratropics are poorly understood. To this end, a high-resolution and objective satellite-based OC identification and classification algorithm was developed. In the algorithm, a machine learning method was utilized to derive tropopause height directly from satellite observations to ensure a high level of consistency between tropopause and cloud top height variations. By studying the climatology of OCs, including geographic distribution, vertical extent, and seasonal and diurnal variation, as well as their linkage with turbulence in the extratropics in 2018 based on Fengyun-4A geostationary meteorological satellite data, it was found that most OCs in the extratropics have relatively shallow vertical extents and are more likely to occur over complex topography within the cyclonic curvature side of subtropical jets near the exit region, with a total frequency lower than 0.2%. They showed significant seasonal and diurnal variation. OCs in the Northern Hemisphere occurred most frequently during spring and summer and peak in the afternoon, while those in the Southern Hemisphere were more likely to occur in winter and spring, and with the highest likelihood in the early morning. Typical synoptic conditions for the occurrence of OCs in the mid–high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the summer months included low-level easterly flows, increased moisture symmetric instability, upper cold trough (or cold vortex), and a subtropical westerly jet. Under this large-scale flow pattern, moderate-to-greater turbulence was often found to occur within or about 200 km away from the core convective area. The stronger the penetrating convection, the greater the probability of moderate-to-greater turbulence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropopause‐penetrating convection (or “overshooting convection” [OC]) is defined as a meso‐to‐microscale stratosphere–troposphere exchange process caused by deep convection. OC plays an important role in stratosphere–troposphere exchange and in producing turbulence. Compared with the tropics, the characteristics of OC in the extratropics are poorly understood. To this end, a high‐resolution and objective satellite‐based OC identification and classification algorithm was developed. In the algorithm, a machine learning method was utilized to derive tropopause height directly from satellite observations to ensure a high level of consistency between tropopause and cloud top height variations. By studying the climatology of OCs, including geographic distribution, vertical extent, and seasonal and diurnal variation, as well as their linkage with turbulence in the extratropics in 2018 based on Fengyun‐4A geostationary meteorological satellite data, it was found that most OCs in the extratropics have relatively shallow vertical extents and are more likely to occur over complex topography within the cyclonic curvature side of subtropical jets near the exit region, with a total frequency lower than 0.2%. They showed significant seasonal and diurnal variation. OCs in the Northern Hemisphere occurred most frequently during spring and summer and peak in the afternoon, while those in the Southern Hemisphere were more likely to occur in winter and spring, and with the highest likelihood in the early morning. Typical synoptic conditions for the occurrence of OCs in the mid–high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the summer months included low‐level easterly flows, increased moisture symmetric instability, upper cold trough (or cold vortex), and a subtropical westerly jet. Under this large‐scale flow pattern, moderate‐to‐greater turbulence was often found to occur within or about 200 km away from the core convective area. The stronger the penetrating convection, the greater the probability of moderate‐to‐greater turbulence.A flowchart of Geostationary‐satellite‐based (GEOsat) overshooting convection identification algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modes of low-frequency circulation variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are compared between five reanalyses. Circulation modes are detected by rotated principal component analysis (PCA) of monthly mean 500-hPa geopotential heights between 1957 and 2002, separately for individual seasons. The quantification of differences between reanalyses is based on the percentage of grid points (approximately corresponding to the percentage of area) where the spatial representations of a mode (loadings) significantly differ between reanalyses. The differences between surface-input reanalyses (20CRv2c, ERA-20C) and full-input reanalyses (NCEP-1, ERA-40, JRA-55) are larger than differences within the reanalysis groups in all seasons except for autumn. The causes of the differences are of two kinds. First, the differences may be inherent to PCA: namely, the spatial structure of the modes may be sensitive to the number of components rotated. This concerns only a few modes. Second, the differences may reflect real correlation structures in reanalysis data. We demonstrate that the differences concentrate in three or fewer modes in each season. The reanalysis most different from the rest is 20CRv2c, with the differences concentrating over the southern half of Asia and in the subtropical belt over the Pacific and adjacent southwestern North America. The 20CRv2c reanalysis disagrees from other reanalyses there predominantly before the 1980s, which points to the impact of insufficient amount of assimilated observations. On the contrary, ERA-20C exhibits a higher agreement with full-input reanalyses, which is why we recommend it for studies of atmospheric circulation over the entire twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 17‐year SABER‐observed gravity wave (GW) temperature variances reveal significant responses of GWs to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the middle atmosphere (30–100 km) in tropics and extratropics (45°S to 45°N) for boreal winter. The responses vary significantly with latitude but barely with altitude. From 20°S to 45°N, strong positive anomalies are found for MJO Phases 3–5, while negative anomalies for Phases 7–8. From 45–20°S, these patterns are reversed. The peak‐to‐peak differences (positive‐to‐negative anomalies) are ~6–16% relative to the seasonal mean. Comparison with MJO modulations on tropical convection and polar vortex suggests that GW responses in tropics may result from the modulation of GW source, while responses in northern extratropics may result from the modulation of polar vortex, which in turn modulates GW activities. These results highlight the importance of GWs to imprint the tropical MJO signals vertically to the middle atmosphere and horizontally to extratropical regions. Key Points: The 17‐year SABER‐observed GWs show strong response to MJO phase (6–16% anomaly to seasonal mean) from 30–100 km in tropics and extratropicsResponse has salient latitudinal dependences that reverse signs from Phases 3/4 positive to Phases 7/8 negative anomaly in northern winterResponses in tropics and northern extratropic are consistent with the MJO modulation of convective GW source and polar vortex, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the linkages between leading patterns of interannual sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the extratropical Pacific (20°–60°N) and the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the extratropical SLP anomalies represents variations of the Aleutian low, and the second EOF mode represents the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and is characterized by a meridional SLP anomaly dipole with a nodal point near 50°N. It is shown that a fraction of the first SLP mode can be excited by both the EP and CP types of ENSO. The SLP response to the EP type is stronger and more immediate. The tropical–extratropical teleconnection appears to act more slowly for the CP ENSO. During the decay phase of EP events, the associated extratropical SLP anomalies shift from the first SLP mode to the second SLP mode. As the second SLP mode grows, subtropical SST anomalies are induced beneath via surface heat flux anomalies. The SST anomalies persist after the peak in strength of the second SLP mode, likely because of the seasonal footprinting mechanism, and lead to the development of the CP type of ENSO. This study shows that the CP ENSO is an extratropically excited mode of tropical Pacific variability and also suggests that the decay of an EP type of ENSO can lead to the onset of a CP type of ENSO with the aid of the NPO. This extratropical linking mechanism appears to be at work during the 1972, 1982, and 1997 strong El Niño events, which were all EP events and were all followed by strong CP La Niña events after the NPO was excited in the extratropics. This study concludes that extratropical SLP variations play an important role in exciting the CP type of ENSO and in linking the transitions from the EP to CP events.

This study characterizes the relationship between extratropical precipitation systems to changes in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) temperature and tropopause height within different environments. Precipitation features (PFs) observed by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite are collocated with GPS radio occultation (RO) temperature profiles from 2014 to 2017 and classified as non-deep stratospheric intrusion (non-DSI; related to convective instability) or deep stratospheric intrusion (DSI; related to strong dynamic effects on the tropopause). Non-DSI PFs introduce warming (up to 1 K) in the upper troposphere, transitioning to strong cooling (up to −3.5 K) around the lapse rate tropopause (LRT), and back to warming (up to 2.5 K, particularly over the ocean) in the lower stratosphere. UTLS temperature anomalies for DSI events are driven predominantly by large scale dynamics, with major cooling (up to −6 K) observed from the mid-troposphere to the LRT, which transitions to strong warming (up to 4 K) in the lower stratosphere. Small and deep non-DSI PFs typically result in a lower LRT (up to 0.4 km), whereas large but weaker PFs lead to a higher LRT with similar magnitudes. DSI events are associated with larger LRT height decreases, with anomalies of almost −2 km near the deepest PFs. These results suggest intricate relationships between precipitation systems and the UTLS temperature structure. Importantly, non-DSI PF temperature anomalies show patterns similar to tropical convection, which provides unification of previous tropical research with extratropical barotropic convective impacts to UTLS temperatures.

Several mechanisms originating in the Northern (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) are argued to have the ability to stochastically force ENSO events. In this study, the impact of these extratropical mechanisms on ENSO diversity and predictability are evaluated using linear regression methodologies from information theory and machine learning applied to observational data. Overfitting is often an issue when investigating different extratropical mechanisms, as they are highly correlated in both space and time. The statistical methods in this study are specifically designed to address this issue. Results show that at 1-year lead-times, the extratropics are related to development of Central Pacific (CP), but not Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events. In boreal winter, the SH extratropics contribute to the predictability of CP ENSO, much further in advance than previous studies have indicated. The dominant NH predictor of CP ENSO from one winter to the next is identified as a sea surface temperature dipole in the Western North Pacific. Finally, separation of CP ENSO into its extratropical and tropical related components demonstrates that CP ENSO events with strong forcing from the extratropics start one season earlier than events primarily forced from the Tropics and thus have the potential for longer lead predictability, up to 1-year in advance of a CP ENSO event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question of whether ocean dynamics are relevant for basin-scale North Atlantic decadal temperature variability is the subject of ongoing discussions. Here, we analyze a set of simulations with a single climate model consisting of a 2000-yr preindustrial control experiment, a 100-member historical ensemble, and a 100-member ensemble forced with an incremental CO2 increase by 1% yr−1. Compared to previous approaches, our setup offers the following advantages: First, the large ensemble size allows us to robustly separate internally and externally forced variability and to robustly detect statistical links between different quantities. Second, the availability of different scenarios allows us to investigate the role of the background state for drivers of the variability. We find strong evidence that ocean dynamics, particularly ocean heat transport variations, form an important contribution to generate the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Particularly the northwest North Atlantic is substantially affected by ocean circulation for the historical and preindustrial simulations. Anomalies of the Labrador Sea deep ocean density precede a change of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and heat advection to the region south of Greenland. Under strong CO2 forcing, the AMV–SST regression pattern shows crucial changes: SST variability in the northwestern part of the North Atlantic is strongly reduced, so that the AMV pattern in this scenario is dominated by the low-latitude branch. We found a connection to changes in the deep-water formation that cause a strong reduction of the mean AMOC and its variability. Consequently, ocean heat transport convergence becomes less important for the SST variability south of Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors consider quasi-stationary planetary waves that are excited by localized midlatitude orographic forcing in a three-dimensional primitive-equation model. The waves propagate toward subtropical regions where the background flow is weak and the waves are therefore likely to break. Potential vorticity fields on isentropic surfaces are used to diagnose wave breaking. Nonlinear pseudomomentum conservation relations are used to quantify the absorption–reflection behavior of the wave-breaking regions. Three different three-dimensional flow configurations are represented: (i) a barotropic flow, (ii) a simple baroclinic flow, and (iii) a more realistic baroclinic flow. In order to allow the propagation of large-scale waves to be studied over extended periods for the baroclinic flows, the authors apply a mechanical damping at low levels to delay the onset of baroclinic instability.For basic states (i) and (ii) the forcing excites a localized wave train that propagates into the subtropics and, for large enough wave amplitude, gives rise to a reflected wave train propagating along a great circle route into midlatitudes. It is argued that the reflection is analogous to the nonlinear reflection predicted by Rossby wave critical layer theory. Both the directly forced wave train and the reflected wave train are quite barotropic in character and decay due to the damping. However, the low-level damping does not inhibit the reflection. The authors also consider the effect of thermal damping on the absorption–reflection behavior and find that, for realistic wave amplitudes, reflection is not inhibited by thermal damping with a timescale as low as 5 days.For the third basic state it is found that the small-amplitude response has the character of a longitudinally propagating wave train that slowly decays with distance away from the forcing. The authors argue that part of this decay is due to low-latitude absorption and show that at larger amplitudes the decay is inhibited by nonlinear reflection.The authors also compare for each basic state absorption–reflection behavior for isolated wave trains and for waves forced in a single longitudinal wavenumber.

This paper investigates the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in simulating multiple small-scale precipitation bands (multibands) within the extratropical cyclone comma head using four winter storm cases from 2014 to 2017. Using the model output, some physical processes are explored to investigate band prediction. A 40-member WRF ensemble was constructed down to 2-km grid spacing over the Northeast United States using different physics, stochastic physics perturbations, different initial/boundary conditions from the first five perturbed members of the Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensemble Reforecast (GEFSR), and a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS). It was found that 2-km grid spacing is adequate to resolve most snowbands. A feature-based verification is applied to hourly WRF reflectivity fields from each ensemble member and the WSR-88D radar reflectivity at 2-km height above sea level. The Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) tool is used for identifying multibands, which are defined as two or more bands that are 5–20 km in width and that also exhibit a >2:1 aspect ratio. The WRF underpredicts the number of multibands and has a slight eastward position bias. There is no significant difference in frontogenetical forcing, vertical stability, moisture, and vertical shear between the banded versus nonbanded members. Underpredicted band members tend to have slightly stronger frontogenesis than observed, which may be consolidating the bands, but overall there is no clear linkage in ambient condition errors and band errors, thus leaving the source for the band underprediction motivation for future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy balance, the water cycle, and the global atmospheric circulation. Aerosols, by direct interaction with radiation and by serving as cloud condensation nuclei, may affect clouds and rain formation. This effect can be examined in terms of energetic constraints, that is, any aerosol‐driven diabatic heating/cooling of the atmosphere will have to be balanced by changes in precipitation, radiative fluxes, or divergence of dry static energy. Using an aqua‐planet general circulation model (GCM), we show that tropical and extratropical precipitation have contrasting responses to aerosol perturbations. This behavior can be explained by contrasting ability of the atmosphere to diverge excess dry static energy in the two different regions. It is shown that atmospheric heating in the tropics leads to large‐scale thermally driven circulation and a large increase in precipitation, while the excess energy from heating in the extratropics is constrained due to the effect of the Coriolis force, causing the precipitation to decrease. Plain Language Summary: Precipitation, as the Earth's only natural source of fresh water, is of great importance for society. Climate change, besides changing the mean surface temperature and its distribution, is expected to change the precipitation's temporal and spatial distribution and, to a lesser extent, the global mean precipitation. One important agent in precipitation changes is anthropogenic aerosols. In this paper we study the response of precipitation to aerosol perturbations at different latitudes. Previously, it was proposed that aerosols drive a slowdown of the hydrological cycle. In addition, it was shown that, due to energy budget conservation, absorbing aerosols leads to a reduction in the global mean precipitation. Here we show that the response in the tropics is the opposite of the global mean response and of the extratropical response. Specifically, we show that the same aerosol perturbation generally increases precipitation in the tropics and decreases precipitation in the extratropics. This behavior can be explained by the contrasting ability of the atmosphere to diverge excess dry static energy in the tropics and extratropics. We also show that local aerosol perturbations could affect precipitation in remote regions due to a formation of large‐scale circulation. Key Points: Aerosol effect on precipitation is examined in terms of energetic constraintsAerosol perturbation generally increases precipitation in the tropics and decreases precipitation in the extratropicsThis behavior can be explained by contrasting ability of the atmosphere to diverge excess dry static energy in the two different regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The linear response function (LRF) of an idealized GCM, the dry dynamical core with Held–Suarez physics, is used to accurately compute how eddy momentum and heat fluxes change in response to the zonal wind and temperature anomalies of the annular mode at the quasi-steady limit. Using these results and knowing the parameterizations of surface friction and thermal radiation in Held–Suarez physics, the contribution of each physical process (meridional and vertical eddy fluxes, surface friction, thermal radiation, and meridional advection) to the annular mode dynamics is quantified. Examining the quasigeostrophic potential vorticity balance, it is shown that the eddy feedback is positive and increases the persistence of the annular mode by a factor of more than 2. Furthermore, how eddy fluxes change in response to only the barotropic component of the annular mode, that is, vertically averaged zonal wind (and no temperature) anomaly, is also calculated similarly. The response of eddy fluxes to the barotropic-only component of the annular mode is found to be drastically different from the response to the full (i.e., barotropic + baroclinic) annular mode anomaly. In the former, the eddy generation is significantly suppressed, leading to a negative eddy feedback that decreases the persistence of the annular mode by nearly a factor of 3. These results suggest that the baroclinic component of the annular mode anomaly, that is, the increased low-level baroclinicity, is essential for the persistence of the annular mode, consistent with the baroclinic mechanism but not the barotropic mechanism proposed in the previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations using a dry, idealized general circulation model (GCM) are conducted to systematically investigate the eddy-driven jet's sensitivity to the location of boundary layer drag. Perturbations of boundary layer drag solely within the baroclinic zone reproduce the eddy-driven jet responses to global drag variations. The implications for current theories of eddy-driven jet shifts are discussed. Hemispherically asymmetric drag simulations in equinoctial and solstitial thermal conditions show that perturbations of surface drag in one hemisphere have negligible effects on the strength and latitude of the eddy-driven jet in the opposite hemisphere. Jet speed exhibits larger sensitivities to surface drag in perpetual winter simulations, while sensitivities in jet latitude are larger in perpetual summer simulations. Near-surface drag simulations with an Earthlike continental profile show how surface drag may facilitate tropical–extratropical teleconnections by modifying waveguides through changes in jet latitude. Longitudinally confined drag simulations demonstrate a novel mechanism for localizing storm tracks. A theoretical analysis is used to show that asymmetries in the Bernoulli function within the baroclinic zone are important for the eddy-driven jet latitude responses because they directly modulate the sensitivity of the zonal-mean zonal wind to drag in the boundary layer momentum balance. The simulations contained herein provide a rich array of case studies against which to test current theories of eddy-driven jet and storm-track shifts, and the results affirm the importance of correct, well-constrained locations and intensities of boundary layer drag in order to reduce jet and storm-track biases in climate and forecast models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the subseasonal variability of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) and its impacts on atmospheric circulations and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic in the warm season from 1985 to 2013. Significant anomalies in sea level pressure, tropospheric wind, and humidity fields are found over the tropical–subtropical Atlantic within 8 days of an AWB activity peak. Such anomalies may lead to suppressed TC activity on the subseasonal time scale, but a significant negative correlation between the subseasonal variability of AWB and Atlantic basinwide TC activity does not exist every year, likely due to the modulation of TCs by other factors. It is also found that AWB occurrence may be modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). In particular, AWB occurrence over the tropical–subtropical west Atlantic is reduced in phases 2 and 3 and enhanced in phases 6 and 7 based on the Real-Time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index. The impacts of AWB on the predictive skill of Atlantic TCs are examined using the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) reforecasts with a forecast lead time up to 2 weeks. The hit rate of tropical cyclogenesis during active AWB episodes is lower than the long-term-mean hit rate, and the GEFS is less skillful in capturing the variations of weekly TC activity during the years of enhanced AWB activity. The lower predictability of TCs is consistent with the lower predictability of environmental variables (such as vertical wind shear, moisture, and low-level vorticity) under the extratropical influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Storylines of atmospheric circulation change, or physically self-consistent narratives of plausible future events, have recently been proposed as a non-probabilistic means to represent uncertainties in climate change projections. Here, we apply the storyline approach to 21st century projections of summer air stagnation over Europe and the United States. We use a Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble to generate stagnation storylines based on the forced response of three remote drivers of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude atmospheric circulation: North Atlantic warming, North Pacific warming, and tropical versus Arctic warming. Under a high radiative forcing scenario (SSP5-8.5), models consistently project increases in stagnation over Europe and the U.S., but the magnitude and spatial distribution of changes vary substantially across CMIP6 ensemble members, suggesting that future projections are not well-constrained when using the ensemble mean alone. We find that the diversity of projected stagnation changes depends on the forced response of remote drivers in individual models. This is especially true in Europe, where differences of ∼2 summer stagnant days per degree of global warming are found amongst the different storyline combinations. For example, the greatest projected increase in stagnation for most European regions leads to the smallest increase in stagnation for southwestern Europe; i.e. limited North Atlantic warming combined with near-equitable tropical and Arctic warming. In the U.S., only the atmosphere over the northern Rocky Mountain states demonstrates comparable stagnation projection uncertainty, due to opposite influences of remote drivers on the meteorological conditions that lead to stagnation.

Lapse rate tropopause (LRT) heights in the extratropics have been shown to display a bimodal distribution, with one modal maxima above 15 km (typical of the tropical tropopause) and the other below 13 km (typical of the extratropical tropopause). The climatology of the tropopause is studied by characterizing tropopause bimodality and how it relates to the occurrence of double tropopauses (DTs). LRT heights are derived from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) GPS Radio Occultation temperature profiles from 2006 to 2017. Tropopause bimodality occurs most frequently within a subtropical band (20°–40°) in both hemispheres. A distinct seasonality is observed as bimodality occurs most frequently in winter except for another local maximum along the northern edge of the Asian summer monsoon. The regions with a bimodal height distribution nearly overlap the regions that experience a high frequency of DTs. DTs occur most frequently in winter (50%–70% of the time) along the poleward edge of the bimodal band, and most LRT heights are within the extratropical mode (>80%), whereas DT occurrence decreases quickly toward the equatorward edge (

Between April 1925 and June 1927, the research vessel Meteor cruised the tropical and southern Atlantic Ocean in the framework of the German Atlantic Expedition. One purpose was to systematically explore the vertical structure of the atmosphere. To this end, the ocean was crossed in 14 profiles across parallels of latitude. 801 pilot balloons and 217 kites were launched. The resulting data have been digitised in the framework of the European project ERA-CLIM. Here, they are compared to the Twentieth Century (20CR) and ERA-20C reanalyses, independent datasets based on the assimilation of synoptic pressure and hurricane pressure records, and marine surface winds for the latter, using monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice as boundary conditions. Both reanalyses display similar patterns of systematic differences relative to the observations for temperature, specific humidity, and wind. Furthermore, 20CR and ERA-20C show generally comparable anomaly correlations for all parameters, with the highest values found for pressure and temperature. In the southern extratropics, high (>0.75$> 0.75$) anomaly correlations are found for pressure in both 20CR and ERA-20C, and for temperature in 20CR. Medium (>0.5$> 0.5$) anomaly correlations are found for specific humidity in 20CR. Moderate anomaly correlations (>0.44$> 0.44$) are found for meridional wind in both 20CR and ERA-20C, and for temperature in ERA-20C. In contrast, low anomaly correlations (

The role of extratropical ocean warming in the coupled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss is investigated using coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and uncoupled atmospheric-only (AGCM) experiments. Coupled AOGCM experiments driven by sea ice albedo reduction and greenhouse gas–dominated radiative forcing are used to diagnose the extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to sea ice loss. Sea ice loss is then imposed in AGCM experiments both with and without these extratropical SST changes, which are found to extend beyond the regions where sea ice is lost. Sea ice loss in isolation drives warming that is confined to the Arctic lower troposphere and only a weak atmospheric circulation response. When the extratropical SST response caused by sea ice loss is also included in the forcing, the warming extends into the Arctic midtroposphere during winter. This coincides with a stronger atmospheric circulation response, including an equatorward shift in the eddy-driven jet, a deepening of the Aleutian low, and an expansion of the Siberian high. Similar results are found whether the extratropical SST forcing is taken directly from the AOGCM driven by sea ice loss, or whether they are diagnosed using a two-parameter pattern scaling technique where tropical adjustment to sea ice loss is removed. These results suggest that AGCM experiments that are driven by sea ice loss and only local SST increases will underestimate the Arctic midtroposphere warming and atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss, compared to AOGCM simulations and the real world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The link between cross-equatorial energy transport, the double-intertropical convergence zone (DI) problem and biases in tropical and extratropical albedo and energy budgets in climate models have been investigated in multiple studies, though DI biases persist in many models. Here, a coupled climate model, HadGEM2-ES, is used to investigate the response to idealised energy perturbations in the tropics and extratropics, in both the northern and southern hemispheres, through the imposition of stratospheric aerosols that reflect incoming radiation. The impact on the tropical climate of high and low latitude forcing strongly contrasts, with large changes in tropical precipitation and modulation of the DI bias when the tropics are cooled as precipitation moves away from the cooled hemisphere. These responses are muted when the extratropics are cooled, as the meridional energy transport anomalies that are excited by these energy budget anomalies are partitioned between the atmosphere and ocean. The results here highlight the persistence of the DI bias in HadGEM2-ES, indicating why little progress has been made in rectifying these problems through many generations of climate models. A highly linear relationship between cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport, tropical precipitation asymmetry and tropical sea surface temperature biases is also demonstrated, giving some suggestion as to where improvements in these large scale, persistent biases may be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how aerosol absorption affects the extratropical circulation by analyzing the response to a globally uniform increase in black carbon (BC) simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model forced by prescribed sea surface temperatures. The model includes aerosol direct and semidirect effects, but not indirect or cloud-absorption effects. BC-induced heating in the free troposphere stabilizes the midlatitude atmospheric column, which results in less energetic baroclinic eddies and thus reduced meridional energy transport at midlatitudes. Upper-tropospheric BC also decreases the meridional temperature gradient on the equatorward flank of the tropospheric jet and yields a weakening and poleward shift of the jet, while boundary layer BC has no significant influence on the large-scale circulation since most of the heating is diffused by turbulence in the boundary layer. The effectiveness of BC in altering circulation generally increases with height. Dry baroclinic eddy theories can explain most of the extratropical response to free-tropospheric BC. Specifically, the decrease in vertical eddy heat flux related to a more stable atmosphere is the main mechanism for reestablishing atmospheric energy balance in the presence of BC-induced heating. Similar temperature responses are found in a dry idealized model, which further confirms the dominant role of baroclinic eddies in driving the extratropical circulation changes. The strong atmospheric-only response to BC suggests that absorbing aerosols are capable of altering synoptic-scale weather patterns. Its height dependence highlights the importance of better constraining model-simulated aerosol vertical distributions with satellite and field measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiscale asymptotic methods are used to derive wave activity equations for planetary- and synoptic-scale eddies and their interactions with a zonal mean flow. The eddies are assumed to be of small amplitude, and the synoptic-scale zonal and meridional length scales are taken to be equal. Under these assumptions, the zonal-mean and planetary-scale dynamics are planetary geostrophic (i.e., dominated by vortex stretching), and the interaction between planetary- and synoptic-scale eddies occurs only through the zonal mean flow or through diabatic processes. Planetary-scale heat fluxes are shown to enter the angular momentum budget through meridional mass redistribution. After averaging over synoptic length and time scales, momentum fluxes disappear from the synoptic-scale wave activity equation while synoptic-scale heat fluxes disappear from the baroclinicity equation, leaving planetary-scale heat fluxes as the only adiabatic term coupling the baroclinic and barotropic components of the zonal mean flow. In the special case of weak planetary waves, the decoupling between the baroclinic and barotropic parts of the flow is complete with momentum fluxes driving the barotropic zonal mean flow, heat fluxes driving the wave activity, and diabatic processes driving baroclinicity. These results help explain the apparent decoupling between the baroclinic and barotropic components of flow variability recently identified in observations and may provide a means of better understanding the link between thermodynamic and dynamic aspects of climate variability and change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Thames basin experienced 12 major Atlantic depressions in winter 2013/14, leading to extensive and prolonged fluvial and groundwater flooding. This exceptional weather coincided with highly anomalous meteorological conditions across the globe. Atmospheric relaxation experiments, whereby conditions within specified regions are relaxed toward a reanalysis, have been used to investigate teleconnection patterns. However, no studies have examined whether improvements to seasonal meteorological forecasts translate into more skillful seasonal hydrological forecasts. This study applied relaxation experiments to reforecast the 2013/14 floods for three Thames basin catchments with different hydrogeological characteristics. The tropics played an important role in the development of extreme conditions over the Thames basin. The greatest hydrological forecasting skill was associated with the tropical Atlantic and less with the tropical Pacific, although both captured seasonal meteorological flow anomalies. Relaxation applied over the northeastern Atlantic produced confident ensemble forecasts, but hydrological extremes were underpredicted; this was unexpected with relaxation applied so close to the United Kingdom. Streamflow was most skillfully forecast for the catchment representing a large drainage area with high peak flow. Permeable lithology and antecedent conditions were important for skillfully forecasting groundwater levels. Atmospheric relaxation experiments can improve our understanding of extratropical anomalies and the potential predictability of extreme events such as the Thames 2013/14 floods. Seasonal hydrological forecasts differed from what was expected from the meteorology alone, and thus knowledge is gained by considering both components. In the densely populated Thames basin, considering the local hydrogeological context can provide an effective early alert of potential high-impact events, allowing for better preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]