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Finansinio stabilumo vertinimas yra svarbus politikos formuotojams ir reguliavimo institucijoms, siekiant užkirsti kelią sisteminei rizikai, kuri gali sukelti finansų krizes. Finansų krizės gali turėti didelį neigiamą poveikį ekonomikai, įskaitant staigų gamybos sumažėjimą, padidėjusį nedarbą ir socialinės gerovės pablogėjimą. Todėl norint išlaikyti stabilią ir tvarią finansų sistemą, būtina nustatyti finansų sistemos pažeidžiamumą ir riziką bei imtis atitinkamų priemonių joms pašalinti. Dažniausiai pagrindinis finansų sistemos dalyvis yra bankai. Šiame darbe bus vertinamas finansinis stabilumas Baltijos šalyse pasitelkiant pagrindinio finansų sistemos dalyvio būsena rinkoje. Siekiant įvertinti Baltijos šalių finansinį stabilumą atliekama mokslinės literatūros analizė, suformuojama tyrimo metodologija ir atliekamas tyrimas pagal pasirinktus metodus. Remiantis mokslinės literatūros analize ir empiriniais tyrimais darbe taikomas rodiklių analizės metodas, rodikliai pasirenkami pagal CAMELS metodiką, suskirstomi į subindeksus ir parinkus subindeksų svorius sudaromas agreguotas finansinio stabilumo rodiklis. Apskaičiavus subindeksus ir agreguotą finansinio stabilumo indeksą taip pat atliekama koreliacinė analizė. Koreliacinės analizės metu nustatomi nereikšmingi subindeksai, esantys FSI sudėtyje. Atlikus tyrimą pateikiami gauti rezultatai. Finansinių rodiklių analizė parodė, jog didžioji dalis rodiklių buvo veikiami panašiai visose Baltijos šalyse. Pagrindiniai skirtumai atsiskleidė Estijoje vertinant kapitalo pakankamumo rodiklius, kadangi Estijos bankai turėjo didesnį apsaugos lygį lyginant kapitalo ir turto santykį bei neveiksnių paskolų ir visų paskolų santykį lyginant su Latvija ir Lietuva. Lietuvos atveju buvo galima įžvelgti tendenciją po krizės laikotarpio, jog bankų sektorius itin didelių svyravimų neturėjo, o paskutiniais metais analizuojamo laikotarpio signalizavo finansinį stabilumą. Latvijos bankai per analizuojamą laikotarpį turėjo įvairių svyravimų, tačiau labiausiai pažymėtina vieta, jog šalies bankai yra jautrūs rinkos pokyčiams, kas signalizuoja tam tikrą nestabilumą. Apskaičiavus finansinio stabilumo indekso reikšmes buvo nustatyta, jog Baltijos šalių bankai paskutiniais 10 metų veikia ganėtinai stabiliai, tačiau rekomenduojamų rėžių intervaluose ilgiausiai buvo Latvijos bankų sektorius. Atlikus koreliacinę analizę paaiškėjo Baltijos šalių subindeksų reikšmingumas bei jog visose Baltijos šalyse finansinio stabilumo indeksui vieningai reikšmingas buvo rinkos jautrumo subindeksas., Assessing financial stability is important for policymakers and regulators to prevent and mitigate systemic risks that could lead to financial crises. A financial crisis can significantly impact the economy, including a sharp drop in output, increased unemployment, and a deterioration of social welfare. Therefore, identifying vulnerabilities and risks in the financial system and taking appropriate measures to address them is essential for maintaining a stable and sustainable financial system. Banks are usually the main participant in the financial system. In this work, the financial stability in the Baltic States will be assessed using the status of the main participant in the financial system in the market. To determine the financial stability of the Baltic countries, the scientific literature is analyzed, a research methodology is formed, and research is carried out according to the selected methods. Based on the study of the scientific literature and empirical research, the indicator analysis method is applied in work, the indicators are selected according to the CAMELS methodology, divided into sub-indices, and after choosing the weights of the sub-indices, an aggregated indicator of financial stability is formed. After calculating the sub-indices and the aggregated financial stability index, a correlation analysis is also performed. The results obtained after the research are presented. The study of financial indicators showed that most of the indicators were affected similarly in all Baltic countries. The main differences were revealed in Estonia when assessing capital adequacy indicators. Estonian banks had a higher level of protection when comparing the ratio of capital to assets and the percentage of non-performing loans to total loans compared to Latvia and Lithuania. In the case of Lithuania, it was possible to see a trend after the crisis period that the banking sector did not have extremely large fluctuations in the last years of the analyzed period, signaling financial stability. Latvian banks had various fluctuations during the analyzed period, but the most noteworthy point is that the country’s banks are sensitive to market changes, which signals a certain instability. After calculating the values of the financial stability index, it was found that the banks of the Baltic countries have been operating relatively stably in the last 10 years. Still, the Latvian banking sector has been in the intervals of the recommended rates for the longest time. The correlation analysis revealed the significance of the sub-indices of the Baltic countries and that the market sensitivity subindex was uniformly significant for the financial stability index in all the Baltic countries.

Financial inclusion is one of strategies to increase inclusive growth in a lot of countries. However it may cause either stability or instability in the financial system and the impact can be different among income group countries. Potential instability in the financial system occurs when financial inclusion causes reduction in credit standard, inceasing risk of bank reputation, and uncoresponding regulation in microfinance. Therefore, this research aimed to measure financial inclusion and financial stability indexes between countries and analyze the impact of financial inclusion on financial stability in 19 countries based on income group from 2004-2014. Data were collected from World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database, and other sources. The methods used Sarma index to calculate financial inclusion, Albulescu and Goyeau index to calculate financial stability, and tobit model to analyze the impact of financial inclusion on financial stability. The results show higher income countries have higher financial inclusion and financial stability index than lower income countries. Financial inclusion only has positive significant effect to financial stability in high income countries. Lower and upper middle income countries have to increase availability of financial services to enhance financial inclusion. Moreover, lower and upper middle income countries have to increase financial development to enhance financial stability.

This study aims to develop a financial stability index for the Pakistani financial sector by using the financial reports for the period of 2001&ndash, 2011. Specifically, we constructed three different classes of indices in this study based on a variance-equal weighted approach, a linear probability approach, and a logistic approach. We also assessed the prediction accuracy of the financial stability index. All indices indicated that profitability, liquid liability to the liquid asset, non-performing loan, uncovered liabilities, interest spread and inter-fund to liquid liabilities variables contribute significantly to the determination of financial stress of commercial banks. We also compared the results of indices computed with different methodologies&mdash, among them was the index constructed by employing coefficients of the logistic model and which performed outstandingly in predicting distressed and non-distressed banks. Moreover, the findings of this study suggest that in regard to return on assets and return on equity, when employed in a stepwise manner for developing the financial stability index, the results are similar in the sense that both profitability indicators have the same behavior. Finally, we conclude that the financial stability indices developed in this study could help decision makers to detect and avoid instability in the future.

Bu çalışma, Türkiye için finansal istikrarın izlenebildiği bir endeks oluşturmak amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaçla, ilk olarak finansal istikrar kavramı tanımlanmış, devamında finansal sistem açıklanmış ve geçmişte gerçekleşen başlıca finansal krizler hakkında bilgi verilmiştir. Literatür taraması sonucunda, finansal istikrar hakkında bilgi vereceği düşünülen değişkenler incelenmiş olup, belirlenen değişkenler temel bileşenler analizi kullanılarak gruplaştırılmış, oluşturulan faktörler lojistik regresyona tabii tutulmuştur. Çalışmada incelenen değişkenler, 2003 yılı ikinci çeyreği ile 2017 yılı ikinci çeyreği dahil olmak üzere, toplam 57 çeyrek dönemi kapsamaktadır. Lojistik regresyon analizinde üç farklı bağımlı değişken kullanılmış olup, her biri bağımsız değişkenlerde meydana gelen kırılmalar dikkate alınarak oluşturulmuştur. Elde edilen sonuçlar ile üç adet finansal istikrar endeksi oluşturulmuş ve bu endeks içerisindeki değişkenlerin finansal istikrara katkısı yorumlanmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Finansal İstikrar, Finansal Sistem, Finansal Krizler, Finansal İstikrar Endeksi, Lojistik Regresyon The aim of this study is to create an index, which will be used for monitoring financial stability for Turkey. For this purpose, firstly the concept of financial stability was defined, then the financial system was explained and information about the financial crisis, which occur in the past was given. After literature review, the variables considered to give information about financial stability were examined and the variables were grouped by principal component analysis. Finally, generated factors were subjected to logistic regression. The variables which were examined in the study includes a total of 57 quarters, which is between of the second quarter of 2003 and the second quarter of 2017. Three different dependent variables were used in the logistic regression analysis, each of which was formed by taking into consideration the `break points` in the independent variable series. Three financial stability indexes were formed with the results obtained by the logistic regression analysis, and then; the contribution of the variables to financial stability was interpreted.Keywords: Financial Stability, Financial System, Financial Crisis, Financial Stability Index, Logistic Regression 124

Straipsnyje analizuojama finansų sistemos stabilumo sąvoka ir pateikiama šios sąvokos apibrėžimų įvairovė, taip pat aptariamos Centrinio banko strategijos palaikant finansų sistemos stabilumą. Tiksliai prognozuoti galimą finansų sistemos nestabilumą yra vis dar sunkiai įgyvendinamas uždavinys. Siekiant įvertinti šalies ekonomikos pažeidžiamumo laipsnį ir laiku numatyti finansų sistemoje kylančius pavojus, Centriniam šalies bankui rekomenduojama vadovautis bendruoju finansų stabilumo indeksu. Pastarasis gali įvertinti šalies finansų sistemos būklę. Per tyrimą nustatyta, kad remiantis bendru finansų stabilumo indeksu, Centrinis bankas gali nustatyti grėsmes šalies finansų sistemai, įvertinti šios sistemos gebėjimą atlaikyti nepalankų vidaus ir išorės sukrėtimų poveikį, numatyti tinkamas reagavimo priemones. The article analyses the notion of stability of the financial system and presents the variety of definitions of this notion. It also discusses the strategies of the central bank when maintaining the stability of the financial system. Accurate forecasting of instability of the financial system still remains a very difficult task. In order to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of the national economy and ensure timely forecasting of perils for the financial system, the central national bank is recommended to follow the general index of financial stability. The latter can evaluate the condition of the national system of finance. During the research it was established that according to the general index of financial stability, the central bank can identify perils for the national financial stability, evaluate the ability of this system to cope with unfavourable effects of inner and outer shocks and provide for proper measures of response.