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The use of high‐dimensional fixed‐effects estimation has become customary with the estimation of gravity models of bilateral trade, migration, or commuting as outcome. However, fixed‐effects methods can be used without incidental‐parameter bias in a very small set of stochastic models. Alternatives to fixed‐effects estimation are iterative‐structural model estimation or linearizations of the structural model. Baier and Bergstrand deployed such a linearization. While easy to implement, the approach has drawbacks related to the approximation point and lack of observability of ingredients needed for the linearization. This compromises empirical work. The present paper provides a remedy to this problem by linearizing at the observed trade equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the impact of the EU′s policy to prohibit the import of illegally harvested timber on the trade of tropical timber and sawnwood. The analysis uses a difference-in-differences approach based on gravity models, with panel data from over 193 countries that trade tropical timber and sawnwood. The result of the analysis shows that the European Union Timber Regulation (EUTR) reduces the trade of illegally harvested timber. It further suggests that the EUTR caused a relatively larger reduction in tropical sawnwood (−0.21%) than that of tropical timber (0.07%). In addition, the Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) appeared to cause a significant reduction in tropical sawnwood (−0.07~−0.05%), whereas tropical timber did not appear to have been significantly impacted. In particular, the reduction in timber exports in countries that have signed the VPA, which aims to encourage exports of legally produced timber, has significant implications for both the EU and timber exporters preparing for the VPA, as both parties strive to expand the VPA. The results of this study suggest that the EU needs to make additional efforts to address the decline in exports from countries that signed the VPA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing a two-country oligopoly model with firm heterogeneity, this paper examines the relationship among market size, the Home Market Effect, and the gravity equation. We show that in the long-run with free entry, the Home Market Effect holds, namely, more firms locate in the large-sized country. This leads the large-sized country to be a net exporter of the oligopoly good. In the short-run with restricted entry, the Home Market Effect no longer holds and the large-sized country becomes a net importer of the oligopoly good. These results suggest that the theoretical predictions of Feenstra et al. (Can J Econ 34(2):430–447, 2001) survive firm heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically investigates the impact of recent US export controls on China on South Korea’s semiconductor exports. We analyze South Korean export data to shed light on the repercussions of US export restrictions on a third country. Our findings reveal a significant decline in Korean semiconductor exports following the October 2022 imposition of US controls. This decline was most pronounced in the memory, discrete devices, and discrete device components subsectors of the semiconductor industry. In addition, we observed a decrease in unit prices, especially for memory semiconductors, pointing to downward pressure on South Korea’s high-value-added semiconductor exports. These results provide some evidence of substantial negative impacts of US export controls on South Korea’s semiconductor industry, and particularly with regard to its high-tech products.

The article deals with the problems of measuring spatial multipliers on the basis of multiregional models of economic interactions. Two lines of comparative analysis of multiregional models are distinguished: 1) depending on the choice of trade coefficients specification, 2) depending on the choice of the format of balance equations (input-output tables vs social accounting matrices). Interregional balances of Japan, constructed in accordance with Walter Isard’s model on the basis of officially confirmed statistics on interregional trade, are used as a basis for comparison. The focus is on ‘classical’ multiregional models with a high degree of transparency of assumption systems: the Chenery-Moses model, in which the destination sectors of products imported into the region are unknown, and the Leontief-Strout model, in which the volumes of interregional trade are also unknown. The calculations have shown that compensatory feedback mechanisms operate in multiregional systems, as a result of which there is no obvious proportional relationship between the amount of actual information on interregional trade used in the construction of balances and the accuracy of estimates of spatial multipliers. The specifics of different multiregional models are manifested primarily in the estimates of structural components of spatial multipliers – system effects formed in the markets of different hierarchical levels. The assumption of greater accuracy of multiregional matrices of social accounting (as compared to multiregional input-output tables due to the greater number of compensatory feedback mechanisms) is confirmed only at the level of sectoral average spatial multipliers. These calculations lead to the conclusion that when working with multiregional models (especially in the framework of detailed analysis of spatial multipliers – in the context of different sectors or markets of different hierarchical levels) it is important to take into account the discursive techniques used to derive them

This article analyses the impact of the 'depth' of new-age preferential trade agreements (PTAs) signed by nations on value-added trade as well as trade in final and intermediate goods carried out between them. This objective of this article goes beyond the black-boxing of a PTA through a dummy and aims to focus on the 'depth' of a PTA as measured by its provisions and content. For this purpose, we construct an intensive panel data set. The data set spans across 6 years (3-year intervals across 2000–2015) and is constructed on a dyadic (country pair) level for 61 countries and 110 PTAs across the world, using the Trade in Valued Added (TiVA) Database from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Content of Deep Trade Agreements database from World Bank. Further, we construct two indices for measuring the 'depth' of the PTAs based on their content. Our study uses augmented gravity equation with three-way fixed effects, namely country pair, exporter time and importer time, for estimating the results. Our results indicate that the 'depth' of a PTA significantly affects trade in final goods, intermediate goods and value-added trade, and the impact is highest for trade in value added. We also observe that PTA with greater number of provisions has a higher impact on trade in final goods, intermediate goods as well as trade in value added. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) include, among other chapters, ones concerning sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBT). Drawing on recent literature highlighting the relationship between "deep" RTAs and the global organisation of production, this paper empirically investigates whether these SPS and TBT provisions affect multinational production in the food, beverages and tobacco industry. To this end, we combine two different databases to estimate, in a panel gravity framework, both the intensive and extensive margins of multinational production. Because the extensive margin of multinational production may be persistent, a dynamic probit specification is used. Our results show that legally enforceable SPS sections in RTAs, in particular, influence multinational production, though with a rather differentiated pattern in terms of intensive and extensive margins; further, the impact changes depending on the country of origin and destination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International production networks in machinery industry have formed three large clusters, each of which is in East Asia, North America, and Europe. This paper investigates the recent evolvement of the connection between Factory Asia and Factory North America with highlighting the role of Latin American countries as a mediator. For this purpose, we utilized trade matrices and gravity equations to measure each country's level of commitment to each bilateral machinery trade after controlling the size of the economies, distance, and others. Our major findings are threefold: first, Mexico is the only Latin American country that plays a connecting role between two Factories. Second, in 2010–2019, the linkage of exports to Mexico from not only China but also other East Asian countries is strengthened particularly in machinery parts and components. Third, export linkage of China with Mexico is further intensified in 2019–2021 particularly in machinery parts and components due to the US-China confrontation, the USMCA, and other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the dynamics of mild coffee trade during the term of the International Coffee Agreement, focusing on Costa Rica as a case study. We aimed to verify the influence of the agreement on coffee exports and understand its impact on the exports of high-quality coffee. To compare the influence of the coffee agreement on the trade performance of high-quality coffee producers with that of producers specializing in coffee of similar – or lower – quality, we also included exports of Brazilian coffee (low quality) and Colombian coffee (high quality) in the sample. We focused on analysing commodity trade agreements in the second half of the twentieth century and, simultaneously, on the drivers of coffee exports based on a gravity equation consistent with international trade models. Our findings allowed us to conclude that the International Coffee Agreement gave rise to few benefits for 'Other Milds' countries such as Costa Rica and greater benefits for 'Colombian Milds' countries such as Colombia, at least in its early versions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting with Tinbergen (1962, Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy, The Twentieth Century Fund), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied on the workhorse model of trade— the gravity equation. Over the past 60years, there have been many important developments in the RTA literature, both in terms of better methods to quantify their effects, and in terms of more and higher quality data. The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the methods and data developments in the RTA literature, from Tinbergen's very first exploration until today, and to critically evaluate their significance for our ability to measure the impact of RTAs (and other policies) on international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the backdrop of criticism that the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement has disproportionately favored China, particularly in agricultural trade, there has been a surge in Pakistan's imports, leading to a trade deficit. This study attempts to evaluate the impact of CPFTA 1&2 on the vegetable exports of Pakistan which is an important sector of the agricultural industry. A panel data set of Pakistan's vegetable exports to its trading partners from 2003 to 2021 was analyzed with the extensively used gravity model of trade. The vegetable export data was sourced from the International Trade Centre (ITC) which is based on the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The results suggest that the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA-I) has a positive association with Pakistan's vegetable exports to China. However, trade liberalization with Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia plays a more substantial role in driving Pakistan's vegetable exports. CPFTA-II has not had a measurable or statistically significant impact on the vegetable exports of Pakistan as this period was highly influenced by COVID-19. The results of colonialism variables show that Pakistan is exporting more to countries with the same colonial history. Moreover, the results of the geographical variable suggest that Pakistan should explore more close markets to expand vegetable exports. Policy implications suggest the need to reduce trade costs, leverage CPEC infrastructure, enrich trade relations with neighboring countries, and involve business professionals in policy negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the backdrop of criticism that the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement has disproportionately favored China, particularly in agricultural trade, there has been a surge in Pakistan’s imports, leading to a trade deficit. This study attempts to evaluate the impact of CPFTA 1&2 on the vegetable exports of Pakistan which is an important sector of the agricultural industry. A panel data set of Pakistan’s vegetable exports to its trading partners from 2003 to 2021 was analyzed with the extensively used gravity model of trade. The vegetable export data was sourced from the International Trade Centre (ITC) which is based on the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The results suggest that the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA-I) has a positive association with Pakistan’s vegetable exports to China. However, trade liberalization with Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia plays a more substantial role in driving Pakistan’s vegetable exports. CPFTA-II has not had a measurable or statistically significant impact on the vegetable exports of Pakistan as this period was highly influenced by COVID-19. The results of colonialism variables show that Pakistan is exporting more to countries with the same colonial history. Moreover, the results of the geographical variable suggest that Pakistan should explore more close markets to expand vegetable exports. Policy implications suggest the need to reduce trade costs, leverage CPEC infrastructure, enrich trade relations with neighboring countries, and involve business professionals in policy negotiations.

This paper analyses the influence of trade on democracy, aiming to understand whether becoming more open to trade also makes a country more democratic. So far, the scientific literature that investigate this topic is scarce, and has not reached any solid consensus: while some papers find a positive effect of trade openness on democracy levels, others find a negative effect, or no effect at all. Moreover, the empirical literature on this topic is also very prone to technical problems of the research design, such as endogeneity, which increases the risk of obtaining biased estimates. This paper uses an instrumental variable approach, this way avoiding any omitted variable bias and reverse causality problems. More precisely, we instrument trade openness with its natural, geography-determined rate, based on the gravity equation of trade; we then use the predicted rate of trade openness to capture its effect on democracy, employing an OLS regression on a panel sample of 27 post-communist countries across a period of 24 years. Democracy is measured using the polity index (from Polity V dataset), and also five other variables that capture different facets of democracy – electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative and egalitarian dimension (from V-Dem dataset). Empirical results suggest that trade openness has a significant, positive effect on democracy. The effect is only marginally higher for the liberal dimension of democracy, and rather similar in magnitude for the rest of four dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper explores the empirical relationship between population age structure and bilateral trade. Design/methodology/approach: The author includes age structure in both log and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) formulations of the gravity equation of trade. The author studies relative age effects, using differences in the demographic structure of each country-pair. Findings: The author finds that a relatively larger share of population in working age increases bilateral exports. This is robust to various estimation models, as well as to changes in the method of specifying the demographic controls. Old-age shares have a negative, but less robustly estimated impact on trade. Estimating instead the balance of trade between trading partners produces similar results, with positive effects of age structure peaking later in working life. Practical implications: Global populations are poised to undergo a massive transition. Trade a crucial way that the demographic deficits of one country may be offset by the dividends of another as comparative advantages shift along with the size and strength of their underlying workforce. Originality/value: The author's work is among the first to quantify the effect of relative age structure between two countries and their bilateral trade flows. Focusing on the aggregate flows, relative age shares and PPML estimates of the trade relationship, this paper provides the most comprehensive picture to date on how age structure affects trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an analysis of trade benefits of regional trade agreements on global agricultural trade flows. The impact of the 2008 Great Recession is examined. Trade creation and diversion effects are evaluated within the framework of dynamic gravity models. The generalized gravity equations and probit models that account for missing export values are estimated by methods that deal with various specification effects. The findings show that the system-GMM is the efficient estimator. The results reveal that the ASEAN, EAC, and EU associations were more effective in generating agricultural trade benefits for members than the rest of the associations. The NAFTA, MERCOSUR, and SADC associations generated little or no benefits for members. The advent of the 2008 Great Recession impaired agricultural trade flows. While the ASEAN, EAC, and EU associations sustained net trade creation during the entire period and sub-periods, all benefits declined uniformly following the 2008 Great Recession.

China's increasing exports have prompted research to examine whether Chinese exports displace those that originate from elsewhere. In this paper we focus on the growth of China's exports to the East African Community (EAC) countries and show how they have affected exports from the European Union (EU). Our methodological contribution to the literature is a set of total and relative displacement estimates based on different specifications of the gravity model where we control for country–year fixed effects so as to avoid the error of not accounting for time‐varying "multilateral resistance." Our empirical findings do not support the hypothesis that Chinese exports have displaced exports from other countries including those from the EU. These results suggest that competition in the EAC market has not been a zero‐sum game among different exporting countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work assesses the impact of terrorism suffered by a country on the capacity to attract foreign greenfield investments. To this end, we estimate a theoretically consistent structural gravity equation which accounts for several well-known estimation biases such as 'home bias', endogeneity and multilateral resistance. This specification makes it possible to identify the effect of a country-specific time-varying characteristic such as terrorism on bilateral foreign direct investment. We exploit a dataset that covers domestic and foreign investment of 182 countries in the period 2006-2016 on both the extensive and intensive margins. Our study finds that foreign investors are reluctant to invest in countries affected by terrorism and also reduce the amount of their investments in such cases. Sensitivity to terrorism is higher for foreign than for domestic investors. Terrorist attacks have a more intense impact on foreign investors' decision-making when they are international or when these violent acts hurt governments. However, our results also evidence that good governance appears to be an effective tool for counterbalancing these damages in the eyes of foreign investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an analysis of trade benefits of regional trade agreements on global agricultural trade flows. The impact of the 2008 Great Recession is examined. Trade creation and diversion effects are evaluated within the framework of dynamic gravity models. The generalized gravity equations and probit models that account for missing export values are estimated by methods that deal with various specification effects. The findings show that the system-GMM is the efficient estimator. The results reveal that the ASEAN, EAC, and EU associations were more effective in generating agricultural trade benefits for members than the rest of the associations. The NAFTA, MERCOSUR, and SADC associations generated little or no benefits for members. The advent of the 2008 Great Recession impaired agricultural trade flows. While the ASEAN, EAC, and EU associations sustained net trade creation during the entire period and sub-periods, all benefits declined uniformly following the 2008 Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultural relations between countries influence the exchange of cultural goods. This study provides novel knowledge of unobserved cultural relations by mea- suring the effect of cultural relations on the trade in recorded music compact discs, using the gravity model of international trade. We consider such relations as unob- served heterogeneity and introduce into the standard model a factor structure (multi- ple interactive fixed effect terms) to extract the features of unobserved relations, in- cluding cultural relations, between trading countries. We also consider the existence of multiple zero-trade country pairs and introduce a selectivity structure to account for zero flows. After the estimation procedure, we derive the implications of cultural relations from the estimated values of interactive terms using multivariate analysis. From the results of post-estimation analysis, the estimated values of our interactive terms could be interpreted as the effect of cultural relations. In addition to the positive effect of cultural proximity on trade, which existing studies have revealed, our inter- active terms could capture (i) the negative effect of cultural proximity on music trade, such as home consumption bias, (ii) the positive effect of modern music consumption trend on music trade, which is unexplained by cultural proximity based on traditional cultural studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been many studies on economic sanctions and the effectiveness of these sanctions. In these studies, the sanction variable treats as one or two dummy variables (binary), to indicate at most four levels (no sanctions-mild sanctions-severe sanctions-comprehensive sanctions). Studying the effectiveness of economic sanctions requires recognizing the extent and severity of sanctions in various sectors, so it is not possible to examine the effectiveness of sanctions and any review of economic sanctions independent of the severity and extent of sanctions. To this end, in this article, we present the severity of sanctions imposed on the energy sector to a variable between zero to five to provide a better indicator to understand the pressure of economic sanctions imposed on the energy sector of Iran. We examine the effectiveness of sanctions by entering the sanctions severity variable on Iran's foreign trade with five major trading partners, including Germany, China, India, United Arab Emirates, and Turkey, based on the gravity equation through an interactive dummy variable method. We tried to present all the sanctions imposed on Iran's energy sector, between 1992 and 2018. The results show a significant and negative effect of the intensity of energy sector sanctions on Iran's foreign trade. China and UAE have the lowest response to sanctions on Iran’s Energy sector. Also, the highest reduction of trade with Iran due to energy sector sanctions is dedicated to India and Germany.

This paper aims to re-examine the effects on trade of the different types of trade agreements. The extant literature highlights the existence of sizeable different effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade along the geographical scope of the member countries, their degree of development, or the nature of the agreements (bilateral, plurilateral...). However, all previous studies investigating these heterogeneous effects suffer from important limitations because they only rely on international trade flows (which is inconsistent with the theory of gravity in international trade), do not control for general globalization trends, and do not properly account for the dynamic adjustment of trade flows. We address all these shortcomings and find that: (i) both PTAs and GATT/WTO have had a positive effect on bilateral trade; (ii) regional PTAs have a significantly larger effect on bilateral trade than interregional PTAs; (iii) South–South PTAs show the biggest trade-enhancing impact; (iv) bilateral agreements do not boost trade; and (v) enlargements of existing PTAs have a larger effect than plurilateral agreements and the agreements between two PTAs or between a PTA and a country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimates for flow data on the dual gravity model in international trade with spatial interactions (dependence). The dual gravity model has a well-established economic foundation, and it takes the form of a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. The dual gravity model originates from Behrens et al., but the spatial weights matrix motivated by their economic theory has a feature that violates existing regularity conditions for asymptotic econometrics analysis. By overcoming the limitations of existing asymptotic theory, we show that QML estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal. The simulation results show the satisfactory finite sample performance of the estimates. We illustrate the usefulness of the model by investigating the McCallum "border puzzle" in the gravity literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an empirical strategy guided by the data to estimate the effects of Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) on trade flows and their transitional dynamics. The strategy uses Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) to guide the choice of lags and leads in the effects without researchers' discretion involved. We show that arbitrarily selected year intervals and starting year can result in non‐robust estimates of transitional dynamics of the effects of EIAs on trade flows. The empirical strategy follows two steps: EBA first sifts lags and leads of EIAs robustly related to trade flows from candidates, then these are included in the gravity equation to estimate the effects of EIAs on trade. We find that various lags and leads are robustly and positively related to trade flows, and the lag and lead structure depends on the level of integration. Our results show that EIAs have a long‐term effect of 63% on trade flows. Under the richer lag and lead structure, deep‐integration agreements beyond the level of free trade agreements have a much higher impact on trade flows than free trade agreements do (132% vs 31%). The estimates of effects of EIAs obtained from EBA‐based estimation have a smaller contemporaneous effect and larger phased‐in effects compared to previous studies relying on the subjective choices of year intervals while similar results are observed with the decomposed EIAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic determinants of economic integration agreements have received ample attention in the economic literature. Political motivations for such agreements have been mostly studied as functions of domestic politics or in the context of conflict. In this paper the author suggests a different narrative. Economic integration may be used as an instrument of foreign policy, where political considerations influence the choice of contracting partners. He sketches a simple model that exhibits the proposed mechanism in which a big country chooses between alternatives for integration in terms of economic and political welfare gains, while a small country is indifferent between possible partners for integration. In the empirical part the author uses a novel dataset on political events to test the predictions of the model and finds evidence for the hypothesis that there is more to economic integration than "just trade". Geopolitical considerations play a determining role in the choice of the contracting partner country and the depth of economic integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the ]9903, East Asia-including Northeast and Southeast Asia-has led the world in adopting a task-by-task international division of labour or international production networks (IPNs), the core of which consists of niachinery industries. In this regard, how far has India integrated with East Asia? Using international trade data for comparison from multiple perspectives, this article gives an overview of the current position of India with respect to machinery IPNs and information and communication technology (ICT) services. The article shows that India has not yet participated in machinery IPNs in the East Asian region. We argue that ICT services are a source of strength for the Indian economy, and its competitiveness could be utilized effectively by combining new technologies with traditional industries such as manufacturing. India still has huge untapped opportunities for utilizing the mechanics of a new international division of labour to accelerate economic growth, innovation and poverty alleviation. And economic integration with East Asia could work as a trigger to redirect India's industrialization strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international expansion of higher education has intensified in recent decades with a rapidly growing number of international branch campuses appearing on the scene. This study investigates the economic, cultural and institutional, and educational determinants of transnational higher education on both the extensive margin (number of international branch campuses), and the intensive margin (the total number of educational programmes offered). Using the gravity equation, we applied fixed-effect empirical methods to a panel dataset that combined and extended the raw data from campuses and master's programmes in 33 source countries and 76 host countries in the period from 1948 to 2016. Estimates reveal that although cultural, economic and institutional ties foster cross-border educational relationships, their effect differs significantly from one margin to another. The study highlights the relevance of globalisation, research activities, and aggregate demand in international higher education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper introduces instrumental‐variable estimators for exponential‐regression models that feature two‐way fixed effects. These techniques allow us to develop a theory‐consistent approach to the estimation of cross‐sectional gravity equations that can accommodate the endogeneity of policy variables. We apply this approach to a dataset in which the policy decision of interest is the engagement in a free‐trade agreement. We explore ways to exploit the transitivity observed in the formation of trade agreements to construct instrumental variables with considerable predictive ability. Within a bilateral model, the use of these instruments has strong theoretical foundations. We obtain point estimates of the partial effect of a preferential‐trade agreement on trade volume that range between 20% and 30% and find no statistical evidence of endogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the importance of product and geographical diversification of exports, the gravity equation was used to predict export diversification for 19 Asian countries from 2004 to 2017 and the System Generalised Method of Moments was used to analyse the dynamic impact of globalisation at the disaggregated level of the diversification of sectoral exports and the goods specialisation on income inequalities. The results show that sectoral diversification of exports is the driving force of inequality. Furthermore, increased diversification of exports in the highly-income countries of Asia increases inequality and has little impact on low-income countries in Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review the contribution of "The Log of Gravity" (Santos Silva and Tenreyro, Rev Econ Stat 88:641–658, 2006), summarize the main results in the ensuing literature, and provide a brief review of the state-of-the-art in the estimation of gravity equations and other constant-elasticity models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the impact of the introduction and design of labor clauses (LCs) in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade flows over the period 1990–2014. While it is not a priori clear if the inclusion of LCs in PTAs will decrease or increase bilateral trade, we expect the direction of trade to matter, that is, we expect to observe the (negative or positive) impact of LCs in the South-North trade configuration. We also expect, in that configuration, stronger LCs to yield stronger (negative or positive) effects on bilateral trade flows. Using a novel dataset on the content of labor provisions in PTAs, we find in line with our first expectation that while the introduction of LCs has on average no impact on bilateral trade flows, it increases exports of low and middle-income countries with weaker labor standards in North–South trade agreements. Consistent with our second expectation, this positive impact is mostly driven by LCs with institutionalized cooperation provisions. In contrast, LCs with strong enforcement mechanisms do not have a statistically significant impact on exports of developing countries in North–South PTAs. The results are inconsistent with the ideas that LCs are set for protectionist reasons or have protectionist effects, casting doubt on the logic for the reluctance of many developing countries to include LCs in their trade agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine factors affecting OECD bilateral Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) stocks over 1995–2016. We emphasize the effect of regional trade agreements, the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). We find that EU membership is a significant determinant of FDI even when we condition on other gravity variables. The importance of robust economic institutions and freedoms is discussed, with implications for countries that are reducing such freedoms. European Integration has raised intra Single Market FDI by over 40%. The UK has no labour market or competitive environment advantage above the rest of the EU in attracting FDI, and it will lose stocks after departure. We show that distance matters, but the effect is declining slowly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is relatively well accepted that costs associated with transfers weigh upon water markets and deter some exchanges. But few studies explicitly address such costs and their impacts on trading behavior. In this article we fill this gap, using a tool from the international trade literature called the gravity equation. We first develop a theoretical model to assess the micro-foundation of this approach in a water market context. The model distinguishes between variable and fixed costs of trade, which allows us to disentangle the decision to enter into the water market (extensive margin) and the decision on the quantity of water to be transferred (intensive margin). We then test the theoretical predictions using water transfer data among California water districts over a 17-year period. We approximate transfer costs by distance and institutional factors. Results validate the theoretical predictions and show the importance of distance and institutional impediments in the decision to trade.

This study examines the role of political risk in deterring China's trade flow with her 132 trading partners with particular attention to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries for 1984-2015 in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) framework. Using twelve political risk indicators from International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), we use factor analysis to retrieve three underlying factors: 'Cultural Rigidity,' 'Governance Failure,' and 'Partners' Adverse Feeling.' After combining these factors into a dynamic system GMM Gravity equation, we examine their impact on China's trade flow. As we control for Gravity variables and these risk factors, BRI has been found effective for China with MENA countries, ASEAN10, and ASEAN10 + 3 (China, Japan, and South Korea) but detrimental to trade flow within the ASEAN10 + 6 (China, India, Japan, S Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) setup. Among the three factors, 'Partners' Adverse Feeling' is the most substantial deterrent, followed by 'Cultural Rigidities.' Most of the traditional Gravity coefficients like domestic and partner country's GDP, domestic and partner country's per capita GDP, distance, GATT membership of China and Partners, take their right sign and significance. 'Governance failure' has been found as a significant deterrent neither in ASEAN nor in MENA setup. Therefore, China should strive to improve cultural bottlenecks with her partner countries and improve upon the existing adverse perception in enhancing her trade flow with these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Without accounting for the period 2008–2009, the evolution of Spanish exports from 2001 to 2015 was marked by constant growth. This period includes an economic recession in Spain from 2008 to 2013, which was accompanied by important credit restrictions to the private sector. This environment pushed Spanish firms abroad for survival, affecting the geographical mapping of exports. With this study, we examined the role played by the degree of financial development in destination countries, and by the export credit guarantees issued by CESCE, the Spanish export credit agency (ECA) in the evolution of such exports. Following previous studies, we proxied the financial development in the destination countries and used CESCE's new business underwritten on exports between Spain and 161 destination countries. We applied a modified gravity model and a System GMM estimator to show that the effects of the financial development in the destination countries on Spanish exports differed by regions and by periods, becoming statistically non-significant during the period of higher financial stress in Spain. Our results also provide evidence that CESCE behaved countercyclically during this period and contributed to the geographical diversification of Spanish exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes whether ongoing liberalization has resulted in more profound trade expansion for Indonesia versus regional partner countries. A gravity model is first employed to find whether regional trade agreements resulted in more significant intra-regional exports or diverted trade. This study applies the generalized method of moment (GMM-sys) and the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator. Four groups of manufactured products are aggregated according to technology intensity, and two nature-based groups of products are estimated in the dynamic panel model. Additionally, revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and a trade balance index (TBI) for 5120 products are used to map goods based on specialization–advantage patterns. The gravity model indicates that regional trade agreements supported trade in manufactured and naturally sourced goods but not in high-tech and primary goods. Additionally, export expansion took place in goods that revealed comparative advantage and export specialization. Competition has increased between Indonesia and four regional trade partners: China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam. Indonesia gained from trading primary materials while losing in some low-cost manufacturing sectors. The potential for trade expansion remains large, as trade patterns differ among regional partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using 6‐digit product‐level data of exports in electronics, this paper finds robust evidence that China's exports adversely affect both the intensive export margin and the extensive export margin of its competitors for the 1992–2018 period. The displacement effects of China's exports on the intensive margin apply especially for the group of intermediate and capital electronic goods and are much more robust and significantly larger in magnitude than the displacement effects found in other studies using aggregated trade data. Finally, we find that China's displacement effect is increasing in China's advantage relative to its competitors in terms of human capital index and internet access of its population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transport connectivity has increasing importance in the global economy. Using a gravity equation model, this paper investigates the effect of liner shipping connectivity on seaborne containerised exports. We use a dataset from the European Comext database that includes information about the transport mode and use of containers for trade flows between EU and non-EU countries. Measuring the dependent variable with the required accuracy and addressing the potential reverse causality between trade flows and shipping connectivity, we document a positive effect of liner shipping connectivity on seaborne containerised exports and a negative effect on seaborne non-containerised ones. The results of this paper support the policy recommendations of international institutions in terms of incentivizing liner shipping connectivity. • We addressed the reverse causality between liner shipping connectivity and trade. • The higher shipping connectivity is, the lower the share of non-containerised flows. • Improving shipping connectivity may be crucial for remote countries. • Reverse causality is an issue when analysing transportation channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of the role played by migrants in supporting host economies, the interest in understanding the impact of migration is growing. However, the literature remains silent on the channels by which migration affects tourism. The present article aims to isolate the effect of migrant networks on tourism by exploring the role of information, travel costs, and demand for visiting friends and relatives. To this end, a theoretical framework that rests upon a structural gravity model is developed. The model allows not only a better understanding of the relationship between tourism and migration but also to overcome several empirical biases like the omission of multilateral resistance in tourism flows or controlling for endogeneity. The empirical analysis considered a sample of 34 OECD countries as destination/home and 157 origin/countries-of-birth for tourist arrivals/migration stock. A positive and robust effect of migration on inbound tourism is estimated and the three channels proposed to drive this nexus become relevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of migrant integration policies set by destination countries on migration from 202 origins to 27 destinations during the period 2010–2018. Employing a structural gravity methodology which features international and domestic (i.e., intra‐national) migration flows, it shows that migrant integration policies, on average, positively affect cross‐border migration relative to domestic migration. Moving from the 25th percentile to the median of the variable summarizing migrant integration policies increases cross‐border relative to domestic migration by one third. Such impact is largely driven by policies on family reunion and permanent residence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gravity equation is a useful tool for trading, but also for financial services as recently found. This paper tries to adapt modern theories of gravity equation for these services to a novel theory on trading, for both bilateral and multilateral trade, and supply and demand sides, finding an explicit expression of demand and supply of trade. This paper also includes an explanation of some Internet-based services by considering less transport costs between both countries. The proposed trading algorithm is key for trading development and for evaluating international trade, but also for finance, taking into account the midpoint between the proposed supply and demand of financial transactions, instead of the midpoint between bid and ask prices. This achieves a good fit for international trade and an alpha for financial trading.

The paper uses recently available data on the core economic provisions of PTAs to identify which (types of) provisions seem to promote bilateral exports and the intensive and extensive margins of exports. Our evidence suggests that measures applied at the border on a preferential basis tend to expand existing trade relationships rather than generate new trade relationships, while measures applied behind the border do the opposite. The effects of measures applied on an MFN basis depend on the threshold used to define the intensive margin. Individual provisions fall into two categories, those that have consistent effects across both margins regardless of the threshold, and those that can have opposing effects on the two margins depending on the threshold. The study finds evidence that PTA effects strengthen through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]