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Since the beginning of COVID-19, more than 13,036,550 people have been infected, and 571,574 died because of the disease by July 13, 2020. Developing new methodologies to predict the COVID-19 pandemic will help policymakers plan to contain the spread of the virus. In this research, we develop a Stochastic Fractal Search algorithm combined with a mathematical model to forecast the pandemic. To enhance the algorithm, we employed a design of the experiments approach for tuning.We applied our algorithm to public datasets to model the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada in the upcoming months. Our algorithm predicts the number of symptomatic, asymptomatic, life-threatening, recovered, and death cases. The outcomes reveal that asymptomatic cases play the main role in the transmission of the virus.Wealso show that increasing the testing capacity would enhance the detection of asymptomatic cases and limit community transmission. Moreover, we performed sensitivity analyses to discover the effects of changes in transmission rates on pandemic growth. The sensitivity analyses provide a realistic overview of the future number of cases if the transmission rates change due to the emergence of new variants or change in social measures. Considering the outcomes, we provide several managerial insights to minimize community transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct text-based measures of the primary concerns listed firms associated with the spread of COVID-19 and other epidemic diseases. We identify which firms perceive to lose or gain from a given epidemic and textually decompose the epidemic's effect on the firm's demand and supply. We find that the effects of COVID-19 manifest as a simultaneous shock to demand and supply, with both shocks affecting firms' market valuations in equal measure on average. By contrast, demand-related impacts appear more important in accounting for the observed collapse in firm-level investment during the COVID-19 crisis. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Mother-to-child transmission is the primary cause of HIV cases among children. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) plays a critical role in preventing mother-to-child transmission and reducing HIV progression, morbidity, and mortality among mothers. However, after more than two decades of ART during pregnancy, the comparative effectiveness and safety of ART medications during pregnancy are unclear, and existing evidence is contradictory. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and safety of different ART regimens among pregnant women living with HIV at preconception or during pregnancy. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Web of Science. We included randomized trials that enrolled pregnant women living with HIV and randomized them to receive ART for at least four weeks. Pairs of reviewers independently completed screening for eligible studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Our outcomes of interest included low birth weight, stillbirth, preterm birth, mother-to-child transmission of HIV, neonatal death, and congenital anomalies. Network meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects frequentist model, and the certainty of evidence was evaluated using the GRADE approach. RESULTS: We found 14 eligible randomized trials enrolling 9,561 pregnant women. The median duration of ART uptake ranged from 6.0 to 17.4 weeks. No treatment was statistically better than a placebo in reducing the rate of neonatal mortality, stillbirth, congenital defects, preterm birth, or low birth weight deliveries. Compared to placebo, zidovudine (ZDV)/lamivudine (3TC) and ZDV monotherapy likely reduce mother-to-child transmission (odds ratio (OR): 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.31, high-certainty; and OR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.74, moderate-certainty). Moderate-certainty evidence suggested that ZDV/3TC was associated with decreased odds of stillbirth (OR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.09 to 2.60). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis provides high- to moderate-certainty evidence that ZDV/3TC and ZDV are more effective in reducing the odds of mother-to-child transmission, with ZDV/3TC also demonstrating decreased odds of stillbirth. Notably, our findings suggest an elevated odds of stillbirth and preterm birth associated with all other ART regimens.

BackgroundFollowing a decline in perinatal HIV transmission from 20% to 10% between 2010 and 2017 in Kenya, rates have since plateaued with an estimated 8% transmission rate in 2021. Between October 2016 and September 2021, Family AIDS Care & Education Services (FACES) supported HIV care and treatment services across 61 facilities in Kisumu County, Kenya with an emphasis on service strengthening for pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV to reduce perinatal HIV transmission. This included rigorous implementation of national HIV guidelines and implementation of 3 locally adapted evidence-based interventions targeted to the unique needs of women and their infants. We examined whether these person-centered program enhancements were associated with changes in perinatal HIV transmission at FACES-supported sites over time.Methods and findingsWe conducted a repeated cross-sectional study of annually aggregated routinely collected documentation of perinatal HIV transmission risk through the end of breastfeeding at FACES-supported facilities between October 2016 and September 2021. Data included 12,599 women living with HIV with baseline antenatal care metrics, and, a separate data set of 11,879 mother-infant pairs who were followed from birth through the end of breastfeeding (overlapping with those in antenatal care 2 years prior). FACES implemented 3 interventions for pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV in 2019: (1) high-risk clinics; (2) case management; and (3) a mobile app to support treatment engagement. Our primary outcome was infant HIV acquisition by the end of breastfeeding (18 to 24 months). We compared infant HIV acquisition risk in the final year of the FACES program (2021) to the year before intervention scale-up and following implementation of the "Treat All" policy (2018). Mother-infant pair loss to follow-up was a secondary outcome. Program data were aggregated by year and site, thus in multivariable regression, we adjusted for site-level characteristics, including facility type, urban versus rural, number of women with HIV in antenatal care each year, and the proportion among them under 25 years of age. Between October 2016 and September 2021, 81,172 pregnant women received HIV testing at the initiation of antenatal care, among whom 12,599 (15.5%) were living with HIV, with little variation in HIV prevalence over time. The risk of infant HIV acquisition by 24 months of age declined from 4.9% (101/2,072) in 2018 to 2.2% (48/2,156) in 2021 (adjusted risk difference -2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): -3.7, -1.6]; p < 0.001). Loss to follow-up declined from 9.9% (253/2,556) in 2018 to 2.5% (59/2,393) in 2021 (risk difference -7.5% [95% CI: -8.8, -6.2]; p < 0.001). During the same period, UNAIDS estimated rates of perinatal transmission in the broader Nyanza region and in Kenya as a whole did not decline. The main limitation of this study is that we lacked a comparable control group.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that implementation of person-centered interventions was associated with significant declines in perinatal HIV transmission and loss to follow-up of pregnant and postpartum women.

BACKGROUND: Fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 occurs during infection, particularly in pediatric populations. The gut microbiota are associated with resistance to enteric pathogens. COVID-19 is associated with alterations to the gut microbiome. We hypothesized that the gut microbiome of infants born to SARS-CoV-2+ mothers differs between infants with and without fecal shedding of the virus. METHODS: We enrolled 10 infants born to SARS-CoV-2+ mothers. We used qPCR on fecal RNA to test for SARS-CoV-2 and 16S rRNA gene sequencing of the V4 region to assess the gut microbiome. Infant SARS-CoV-2 status from nasal swabs was abstracted from medical records. RESULTS: Of the 10 included infants, nine were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by nasal swab with 1 testing positive. Four infants, including the nasal swab positive infant, had at least one sample with detectable levels of SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding. Detection of both SARS-CoV-2 genes in feces was associated with increased gut alpha diversity compared to no detection by a linear mixed effects model (p

Objectives: To identify COVID-19 infectious disease models that accounted for social determinants of health (SDH). Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, medRxiv, and the Web of Science from December 2019 to August 2020. We included mathematical modelling studies focused on humans investigating COVID-19 impact and including at least one SDH. We abstracted study characteristics (e.g., country, model type, social determinants of health) and appraised study quality using best practices guidelines. Results: 83 studies were included. Most pertained to multiple countries (n = 15), the United States (n = 12), or China (n = 7). Most models were compartmental (n = 45) and agent-based (n = 7). Age was the most incorporated SDH (n = 74), followed by gender (n = 15), race/ethnicity (n = 7) and remote/rural location (n = 6). Most models reflected the dynamic nature of infectious disease spread (n = 51, 61%) but few reported on internal (n = 10, 12%) or external (n = 31, 37%) model validation. Conclusion: Few models published early in the pandemic accounted for SDH other than age. Neglect of SDH in mathematical models of disease spread may result in foregone opportunities to understand differential impacts of the pandemic and to assess targeted interventions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Daycare centres play a critical role in early childhood development but are high-risk environments for infectious disease transmission due to close physical contact, shared toys, inadequate hygiene, and poor ventilation. These risks are especially concerning in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like Nigeria, where resources for infection control may be limited. This study aimed to identify and characterise virulence genes in bacterial isolates from daycare centres in Ile-Ife, Nigeria, to assess infection risks. Methods: Between November 2017 and July 2019, 233 samples were collected from 76 children, 33 daycare workers, and 124 fomites in 17 daycare centres. The bacterial isolates were analysed using conventional PCR and RAPD analysis to detect the presence of virulence genes. The frequency of crucial virulence genes and the prevalence of each bacterial species were recorded. Results: Key virulence genes were detected, including fimH in Klebsiella species (22.73% of Gram-negative isolates), algD in Pseudomonas aeruginosa (50%), and icaA and cna in Staphylococcus aureus (16.67%). Staphylococcus aureus was the most prevalent species (35%), followed by Klebsiella (28%) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (20%). Conclusion: This study highlights the presence of virulent bacterial pathogens in daycare environments, posing a severe infection risk to children. To mitigate these risks, it is essential to implement enhanced infection control measures, such as regular microbial screening, improved hand hygiene practices, and disinfection protocols for fomites. Training programs for daycare workers on hygiene practices and routine monitoring could also significantly reduce infection transmission. These interventions are vital for safeguarding the health of daycare children in Nigeria and similar settings globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce the holographic air‐quality monitor (HAM) system, uniquely tailored for monitoring large particulate matter (PM) over 10 μm in diameter—particles critical for disease transmission and public health but overlooked by most commercial PM sensors. The HAM system utilizes a lensless digital inline holography (DIH) sensor combined with a deep learning model, enabling real‐time detection of PMs with greater than 97% true positive rate at less than 0.6% false positive rate and analysis of PMs by size and morphology at a sampling rate of 26 L/min for a wide range of particle concentrations up to 4000 particles/L. Such throughput not only significantly outperforms traditional imaging‐based sensors but also rivals some lower‐fidelity, nonimaging sensors. Additionally, the HAM system is equipped with additional sensors for smaller PMs and various air quality conditions, ensuring a comprehensive assessment of indoor air quality. The performance of the DIH sensor within the HAM system was evaluated through comparison with brightfield microscopy, showing high concordance in size and morphology measurements. The efficacy of the DIH sensor was also demonstrated in two 2‐h experiments under different environments simulating practical conditions, with one involving distinct PM‐generating events. These tests highlighted the HAM system's advanced capability to differentiate PM events from background noise and its exceptional sensitivity to irregular, large‐sized PMs of low concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The growth of parkrun between 2004 and 2019 has been heralded as a success story for public health as a result of its physical activity and wellbeing benefits for participants. However, parkrun was not immune from the COVID-19 pandemic - with events in mainland England cancelled from March 2020 to July 2021. This study explores the lasting impact of the pandemic on parkrun participation to February 2023, and its implications across the socioeconomic spectrum. Methods: The study combines aggregated parkrun weekly finisher data from 32,470 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) in England from January 2015 to February 2023 with Office of National Statistics (ONS) data on population and deprivation. Interrupted time series analysis using segmented Poisson regression models was used to estimate the immediate change in parkrun participation and the change in the rate of growth following the pandemic. Models were fitted for each Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile separately to assess whether this effect differed by socioeconomic deprivation. Results: Visualisation and interrupted time series analysis showed a significant and long-term decrease in parkrun participation following the reopening of parkrun events. This was consistent across all IMD quintiles, indicating that the inequalities in parkrun participation according to IMD observed prior to the pandemic remained after the pandemic. Between March 2020 and February 2023, almost 13 million fewer parkrun finishes are estimated to have occurred relative to what would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic. Conclusion: The reduction in parkrun participation during the pandemic and following the reopening of events is likely to have negatively impacted wellbeing in would-be participants. Going forwards, policymakers must make the difficult trade-off between the long-term health and social implications of restricting outdoor physical activity events against the benefits associated with a reduction in infectious disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Smear-positive TB patients greatly contribute to community-level transmission of this disease. Locating hotspots would make it easier to prioritize and target control interventions. This study aimed to assess the spatial distribution of smear-positive index TB cases and their secondary cases and the predictors of clustering of smear-positive TB cases. Methods: This study was conducted in the Silti Zone of Central Ethiopia from 2020 to 2022. The data of smear-positive index TB patients were collected from the unit TB registries of healthcare facilities. Contacts of all index TB patients were screened in the community and tested to identify secondary TB patients. We performed spatial analysis, including Moran's I statistic, the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic and geographically weighted regression (GWR), to assess the global distribution, local clustering and predictors of clustering of smear-positive TB patients, respectively. Additionally, we used inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation to predict the distribution of smear-positive TB cases and develop a continuous raster map for places with no data. Results: Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the distribution of smear-positive TB patients exhibited significant clustering (Moran's I = 0.70029; p value < 0.000). The Getis-Ord Gi* output indicated the presence of statistically significant hotspots as well as cold spots in the study area. Significant hotspots were found in 11 Kebeles of the Silti, Dalocha and Misrak Silti districts. Significant coldspots were also found in five kebeles of the Silti and Misrak districts. GWR analysis revealed that no education, primary education, family size and thatched roof houses were significant predictors of the spatial clustering of smear-positive TB cases. We also found that the majority of the secondary TB cases were found in hotspots identified through spatial analysis. Conclusion: The study revealed a heterogenous distribution of smear positive TB in the study area and it could act as a model that can be replicated in other regions. The identified hotspots of TB could be targeted through location-based interventions such as systematic active screening in the form of outreach programs to improve the performance of TB prevention and control, including reducing the transmission of TB. Educational status, family size and housing type were some of the factors that significantly influenced the spatial distribution of smear-positive TB in the study area. The distribution of secondary TB cases found through household contact screening coincided with the identified hotspots, indicating greater transmission of the disease in these places. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Routes of virus transmission between hosts are key to understanding viral epidemiology. Different routes have large effects on viral ecology, and likelihood and rate of transmission; for example, respiratory and vector-borne viruses together encompass the majority of rapid outbreaks and high-consequence animal and plant epidemics. However, determining the specific transmission route(s) can take months to years, delaying mitigation efforts. Here, we identify the vial features and evolutionary signatures which are predictive of viral transmission routes and use them to predict potential routes for fully-sequenced viruses in silico and rapidly, for both viruses with no observed routes, as well as viruses with missing routes. This was achieved by compiling a dataset of 24,953 virus-host associations with 81 defined transmission routes, constructing a hierarchy of virus transmission encompassing those routes and 42 higher-order modes, and engineering 446 predictive features from three complementary perspectives. We integrated those data and features to train 98 independent ensembles of LightGBM classifiers. We found that all features contributed to the prediction for at least one of the routes and/or modes of transmission, demonstrating the utility of our broad multi-perspective approach. Our framework achieved ROC-AUC = 0.991, and F1-score = 0.855 across all included transmission routes and modes, and was able to achieve high levels of predictive performance for high-consequence respiratory (ROC-AUC = 0.990, and F1-score = 0.864) and vector-borne transmission (ROC-AUC = 0.997, and F1-score = 0.921). Our framework ranks the viral features in order of their contribution to prediction, per transmission route, and hence identifies the genomic evolutionary signatures associated with each route. Together with the more matured field of viral host-range prediction, our predictive framework could: provide early insights into the potential for, and pattern of viral spread; facilitate rapid response with appropriate measures; and significantly triage the time-consuming investigations to confirm the likely routes of transmission. Author summary: Routes of virus transmission–the mechanism(s) by which a virus physically gets from an infected to an uninfected host, are crucial to understanding how viral diseases spread among animals and plants. Here, we uncover the evolutionary signatures which can predict the transmission routes a virus uses to move from one host to another, enabling us to identify any unobserved routes for known viruses and even predict potential routes of newly emerged viruses. We first compile a comprehensive dataset of virus-host associations. Using this dataset, we employ a multi-perspective machine learning approach to achieve high predictive performance. Our framework ranks viral features by their significance in prediction, revealing genomic evolutionary signatures linked to each route. Our approach could provide early insights into viral spread patterns, facilitating prompt response efforts to new outbreaks and epidemics, and streamline laboratory investigations. Overall, our study represents a step forward in our ability to anticipate and mitigate the impact of emerging infectious diseases on human, animal, and plant health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria remains a substantial public health challenge and economic burden globally. Currently, malaria has been declared as endemic in 85 countries. In this study, we developed and analyzed a fractional-order mathematical model for malaria transmission dynamics that incorporates variability of temperature and rainfall using Caputo-type AB operators. The existence and uniqueness of the model's solutions were established using the Banach fixed-point theorem. The model system's equilibria (both disease-free and endemic) were identified, and lemmas and theorems were developed to prove their stability. Furthermore, we used different temperature ranges and rainfall data, validating them against existing literature. Numerical simulations using the Toufik-Atangana schemes with various fractional-order alpha values revealed that as the value of alpha approaches 1, the behavior of the fractional-order model converges to that of the classical model. The numerical results are promising and are expected to be valuable for future research related to fractional-order models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science is recognized as an important tool to engage the public in important scientific and environmental issues that impact them. Mosquito surveillance-based citizen science in college curricula have not received much attention even though its usage has the potential to actively engage students in inquiry and elevate student support for science. FLAGG (Florida Aedes Genome Group) was a course-based internship where college students engaged in mosquito egg collections, learned about disease transmission, and gained an understanding of data collection in scientific research. This paper reports on a study comparing the outcomes of FLAGG participants with students in other college internships and students who had never done an internship. Findings show that participation in the citizen science mosquito control internship not only increased knowledge and skills in mosquito abatement, but also increased confidence and to a certain extent, sense of engagement, when compared to other groups. These results support the inclusion of citizen science methods in college-based curricula, where benefits extend beyond content learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Submicroscopic Plasmodium infections can be a source of persistent malaria transmission. The aim of this study was to assess their frequency, distribution, morbidity and associated factors in a pre-elimination malaria setting in sub-Saharan Africa, Guinea-Bissau, where the Plasmodium falciparum is the predominant Plasmodium species. Methods: Dried fingerprick whole blood samples from 601 participants in the 2017 national, household-based, cross-sectional survey to estimate malaria prevalence were subjected to DNA extraction. The DNA was used in nested end-point PCR assays targeting genus- and species-specific regions of the Plasmodium 18S rRNA genes. Statistical analysis of socio-demographic, clinical and molecular data was carried out using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, version 29. Factors associated with submicroscopic P. falciparum infections and their magnitude were sought using Chi-square test and multiple logistic regression models, respectively. Statistically significant level was considered at P-value < 0.05. Results: Nested PCR assays detected submicroscopic P. falciparum infections in 20.3% (95% CI = 16.8–23.8) of individuals microscopically negative for Plasmodium species in the general population and in 21.4% (95% CI = 9.9–36.5) of microscopically negative pregnant women. Submicroscopic Plasmodium malariae infections were also detected as co-infections in 3.0% individuals who were microscopically positive only for P. falciparum. Infections with other Plasmodium species were not detected. Submicroscopic P. falciparum infections were not associated with age, sex, or the presence of fever. A logistic regression model adjusted for ethnicity and health region showed that individuals from the Balanta and Bijagos ethnic groups, most of whom live in the low malaria-transmission areas of Quinara and Bissau, and the Bijagos archipelago, respectively, were less likely to have submicroscopic P. falciparum infections than individuals from the large Fula ethnic group, most of whom live in the high malaria-transmission area of Gabu. Submicroscopic P. falciparum infections were not associated with anaemia in children under 5 years of age. Conclusion: The results obtained highlight the contribution of asymptomatic and submicroscopic P. falciparum infections to malaria transmission in high malaria-transmission areas and the need for molecular-based tools to detect submicroscopic Plasmodium species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This longitudinal study characterized Salmonella circulating in lymph nodes (LN, n = 800) and beef trimmings (n = 745) from slaughter cattle from a Mexican feedlot. During two years, LN and beef trimming samples were collected 72–96 h post-slaughter, and we obtained 77 isolates of the serovars Anatum (n = 23), Reading (n = 22), Typhimurium (n = 10), London (n = 9), Kentucky (n = 6), Fresno (n = 4), Give, Muenster, and monophasic 1,4,[5],12:i- (n = 1 each). These isolates were subjected to whole genome sequencing, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based phylogenetic analysis, reconstruction of their ancestral isolation sources through evolutionary analysis, and virulence profiling. Although LN and beef trimmings were not mixed, evolutionary analysis estimated that the common ancestor of all study isolates was likely of LN origin. Moreover, isolates from both sources were highly clonal (0–21 SNP distance), highlighting the complexity of Salmonella transmission dynamics. The pathogen persisted across cattle cohorts, as shown by clonality between isolates collected in different years (1–20 SNP distance). Major virulence genes were highly conserved (97–100% identity to the reference sequences) and most isolates carried a conserved version of pathogenicity islands 1–5, 9, 11, and 12. Typhimurium strains carried the Salmonella plasmid virulence operon (spvRABCD), and a Muenster isolate carried the st313td gene, both of which are associated with invasive phenotypes. Most isolates (49/77) were genetically similar (1–43 SNPs) to strains involved in human salmonellosis, highlighting their public health significance. Further research is needed on Salmonella transmission dynamics in cattle and the mechanisms determining subclinical infection and persistence in farm environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the often‐overlooked impact of immature mosquitoes on the dynamics of malaria transmission. By employing a mathematical model, we explore how these aquatic stages of the vector shape the spread of the disease. Our analytical findings are corroborated through numerical simulations conducted using the Runge–Kutta fourth‐order method in MATLAB. Our research highlights a critical factor in malaria epidemiology: the basic reproduction number R0. We demonstrate that when R0 is below unity R0<1, the disease‐free equilibrium exhibits local asymptotic stability. Conversely, when R0 surpasses unity R0>1, the disease‐free equilibrium becomes unstable, potentially resulting in sustained malaria transmission. Furthermore, our analysis covers equilibrium points, stability assessments, bifurcation phenomena, and sensitivity analyses. These insights shed light on essential aspects of malaria control strategies, offering valuable guidance for effective intervention measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatitis C Virus is endemic to many areas of Thailand, whose population structure is tending towards older age groups as birth rate and mortality decrease. With around 790,000 cases in 2019, prevalence is still relatively high, but the World Health Organisation has called for elimination of HCV by 2030. Methods: An age structured compartmental transmission model was used to explore the effectiveness of screening strategies with respect to WHO elimination goals, as well as the effect of changing population structure on the success or failure of such strategies. Results: Population structure did not appear to affect the timeline of elimination targets and screening individuals over the age of 30 at a high (50% per year) coverage could bring forward achievement of the incidence elimination target by four years compared to baseline (approximately 6% per year). Achievement of mortality elimination targets was not reached until after the end of the simulation (2040), and intensive screening strategies did not appear to lead to incidence elimination by 2030. Conclusion: The model suggested that with age-targeted screening programmes incidence elimination could be brought forward by several years. However, WHO elimination goals may not be met by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Illicitly manufactured fentanyl (IMF) increases overdose mortality, but its role in infectious disease transmission is unknown. We examined whether IMF use predicts hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence among a cohort of people who inject drugs (PWID) in San Diego, California and Tijuana, Mexico. Methods PWID were recruited during 2020–2022, undergoing semi-annual interviewer-administered surveys and HIV and HCV serological rapid tests through 2024. Cox regression was conducted to examine predictors of seroconversion considering self-reported IMF use as a 6-month lagged, time-dependent covariate. Results Of 398 PWID at baseline, 67% resided in San Diego, 70% were male, median age was 43 years, 42% reported receptive needle sharing, and 25% reported using IMF. HCV incidence was 14.26 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.49–17.02), and HIV incidence was 1.29 (95% CI:.49–2.10). IMF was associated with HCV seroconversion, with a univariable hazard ratio (HR) of 1.64 (95% CI: 1.09–2.40), and multivariable HR of 1.57 (95% CI: 1.03–2.40). The direction of the relationship with HIV was similar, albeit not significant (HR 2.39; 95% CI:.66–8.64). Conclusions We document a novel association between IMF and HCV seroconversion among PWID in Tijuana–San Diego. Few HIV seroconversions (n = 10) precluded our ability to assess if a similar relationship held for HIV. IMF's short half-life may destabilize PWID—increasing the need for repeat dosing and sharing smoking materials and syringes. New preventive care approaches may reduce HCV transmission in the fentanyl era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective International guidelines recommend maternal tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) therapy accompanied by infant immunoprophylaxis to prevent hepatitis B virus (HBV) mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) in highly viremic mothers. However, pooled analyses for tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) effects and comparisons between the 2 regimens are lacking. Design In this meta-analysis, pairs of independent reviewers performed multiple database searches from inception to 31 March 2024 and extracted data from cohort studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in highly viremic mothers. The outcomes of interest were the reduction of MTCT and safety in the TDF-treated, TAF-treated, and control groups. Results We included 31 studies with 2588 highly viremic mothers receiving TDF, 280 receiving TAF, and 1600 receiving no treatment. Compared to the control, TDF therapy reduced the MTCT rate in infants aged 6–12 months (risk ratio: 0.10, 95% confidence interval [CI].07–.16). Pairwise meta-analysis between TAF and TDF revealed similar effects on reducing MTCT (risk ratio: 1.09, 95% confidence interval.16–7.61). Network meta-analysis showed equal efficacy of the 2 regimens in reducing MTCT (risk ratio: 1.09, 95% CI.15–7.65). The surface under the cumulative ranking curve revealed TDF as the best regimen compared with TAF (probability ranking:.77 vs.72), while receiving a placebo during pregnancy had the lowest efficacy (probability ranking 0.01). There were no safety concerns for mothers and infants in all regimens. Conclusions Compared to placebo or no treatment, maternal TDF and TAF prophylaxis are equally effective and without safety concerns in reducing MTCT in highly viremic mothers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Quantifying the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in indoor settings is crucial for developing effective non-vaccine prevention strategies and policies. However, summary evidence on the transmission risks in settings other than households, schools, elderly care, and health care facilities is limited. We conducted a systematic review to estimate the secondary attack rates (SARs) of SARS-CoV-2 and the factors modifying transmission risk in community indoor settings. Methods We searched Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, WHO COVID-19 Research Database, MedrXiv, and BiorXiv from 1 January 2020 to 20 February 2023. We included articles with original data for estimating SARS-CoV-2 SARs. We estimated the overall and setting-specific SARs using the inverse variance method for random-effects meta-analyses. Results We included 34 studies with data on 577 index cases, 898 secondary cases, and 9173 contacts. The pooled SAR for community indoor settings was 20.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.0%–32.5%). The setting-specific SARs were highest for singing events (SAR, 44.9%; 95% CI, 14.5%–79.7%), indoor meetings and entertainment venues (SAR, 31.9%; 95% CI, 10.4%–65.3%), and fitness centers (SAR, 28.9%; 95% CI, 9.9%–60.1%). We found no difference in SARs by index case, viral, and setting-specific characteristics. Conclusions The risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was highest in indoor settings where singing and exercising occurred. Effective mitigation measures such as assessing and improving ventilation should be considered to reduce the risk of transmission in high-risk settings. Future studies should systematically assess and report the host, viral, and setting-specific characteristics that may modify the transmission risks of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses in indoor environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates a stochastic SEIAIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and contacting distance to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID‐19. Firstly, we show the global existence of positive solution of the system. Then, using the Lyapunov function method and theory of stochastic analysis, we set out the sufficient conditions of the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution to the stochastic model. Furthermore, we obtain the sufficient condition for extinction of the disease. Finally, we go through some numerical simulations to demonstrate the theoretical results. Our study extends and improves the results of previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The threat of the emergence of potential pandemics in the future has been looming ever since the world witnessed the worst-ever public health catastrophe following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The COVID-19 pandemic affected billions of people killing millions of people throughout the world. Now, we have been noticing an alarming rise in the cases of mpox disease caused by Mpox virus (MPXV). Although discovered in 1958, mpox was largely confined to monkeys before causing the first human infection in 1970. The MPXV is demonstrating a complex transmission behavior as noted by its discovery first in Denmark in monkeys imported from Singapore (Asia) and later spreading to humans causing repeated re-emergence. The virus was confined to the African nations including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) before reemerging in the United States of America in 2003 affecting several people who had a history of contact with animals. Following scattered reports from endemic regions, the virus appears to have remerged after approximately two decades in 2022 involving the United States of America (USA) and European countries. The virus has been spreading across the globe as evidenced by its discovery in 60 countries in 2022 to more than 120 countries in the current year. It is therefore essential to improve the understanding of the MPXV, its epidemiology, pathogenicity and virulence, clinical features, and control and preventive measures and increase preparedness to efficiently tackle any future public health emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (TB; MDR/RR-TB) is a significant public health threat. However, the mechanisms involved in its transmission in Sichuan, China are unclear. To provide a scientific basis for MDR/RR-TB control and prevention, we investigated the drug-resistance characteristics, genetic diversity, and transmission dynamics and analyzed the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients to identify risk factors for the acquisition of MDR/RR-TB in Sichuan, Western China. Methods: Whole-genome sequencing was performed using a sample comprised of all MDR/RR-TB strains isolated from patients with pulmonary TB (≥ 15 years) at the 22 surveillance sites in Sichuan province between January 2019 and December 2021, to analyze genotypic drug resistance and genetic diversity. Moreover, we performed statistical analyses of the epidemiological characteristics and risk factors associated with the transmission dynamics of MDR/RR-TB. Results: The final analysis included 278 MDR/RR TB strains. Lineage 2.2, the major sub-lineage, accounted for 82.01% (228/278) of isolates, followed by lineage 4.5 (9.72%, 27/278), lineage 4.4 (6.83%, 19/278), and lineage 4.2 (1.44%, 4/278). The drug resistance rates, ranging from high to low, were as follows: isoniazid (229 [82.37%]), streptomycin (177 [63.67%]), ethambutol (144 [51.80%]), pyrazinamide (PZA, 119 [42.81%]), fluoroquinolones (FQs, 93 [33.45%]). Further, the clofazimine, bedaquiline, and delamanid resistance rates were 2.88, 2.88, and 1.04%, respectively. The gene composition cluster rate was 32.37% (90/278). In addition, 83.81% (233/278) of MDR/RR-TB cases were determined to be likely caused by transmission. Finally, patients infected with lineage two strains and strains with the KatG S315T amino acid substitution presented a higher risk of MDR/RR-TB transmission. Conclusion: Transmission plays a significant role in the MDR/RR-TB burden in Sichuan province, and lineage 2 strains and strains harboring KatG S315T have a high probability of transmission. Further, high levels of FQ and PZA drug resistance suggest an urgent need for drug susceptibility testing prior to designing therapeutic regimens. New anti-TB drugs need to be used standardly and TB strains should be regularly monitored for resistance to these drugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In COVID-19 management, a variety of pharmaceutical interventions (PI) and non- pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) were adopted to limit the spread of the disease and its associated deaths. We aimed to evaluate the impact of PI and NPI on risks of COVID-19 transmission and deaths. Method: We collected aggregate data from March 2nd, 2020, to December 1, 2022 from the Tunisian Ministry of Health's website and OurWorldInData.org site. NPI Periods (NPIP: March 2020 to March 2021) and PI Periods (PIP) were distributed to NPIP1, 2, 3 and 4 and to PIP1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. We calculated the Relative Risks (RR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) by comparing the subsequent period with previous one. Results: The risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission increased progressively from the zero cases period (NPIP2) to the mitigate strategy period (NPIP3) (RR = 14.0; 95% CI: 12.4–15.8) and to the stop-and-go epidemic control period (NPIP4) (RR = 23.1 (95% CI: 22.4–23.9). It was stabilized in the targeted vaccination period (PIP1) (RR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.07–1.08) and reduced during the mass vaccination period (PIP2) (RR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.50–0.51). SARS-CoV-2 transmission, increased during PIP3 concomitant with the Omicron wave (RR = 2.65, 95% CI: 2.64–2.67). It remained at a low level in PIP4 (RR = 0.18; 95% CI: 0.18–0.18). Compared to NPIP2, NPIP3 and NPIP4 were associated with a higher risk of COVID-19 mortality (RR = 3.337; 95% CI: 1.797–6.195) and (RR = 72.63 (95% CI: 54.01–97.68), respectively. Since the start of the immunization program, the risk of COVID-19 death has consistently decreased. In comparison to each previous period, the risk transitioned in PIP1 to RR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.88–0.93, then to RR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83–0.88 in PIP2, to RR = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.45–0.50 in PIP3, and to RR = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.18–0.24 during PIP4. Conclusion: In terms of lowering the risk of transmission and mortality, the NP strategy at the beginning of the epidemic outperformed the IP strategy during the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposure to contagious pathogens can result in behavioural changes, which can alter the spread of infectious diseases. Healthy individuals can express generalized social distancing or avoid the sources of infection, while infected individuals can show passive or active self-isolation. Amphibians are globally threatened by contagious diseases, yet their behavioural responses to infections are scarcely known. We studied behavioural changes in agile frog (Rana dalmatina) juveniles upon exposure to a Ranavirus (Rv) using classic choice tests. We found that both non-infected and Rv-infected focal individuals spatially avoided infected conspecifics, while there were no signs of generalized social distancing, nor self-isolation. Avoidance of infected conspecifics may effectively hinder disease transmission, protecting non-infected individuals as well as preventing secondary infections in already infected individuals. On the other hand, the absence of self-isolation by infected individuals may facilitate it. Since infection status did not affect the time spent near conspecifics, it is unlikely that the pathogen manipulated host behaviour. More research is urgently needed to understand under what circumstances behavioural responses can help amphibians cope with infections, and how that affects disease dynamics in natural populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted an unprecedented global effort to understand and mitigate the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 in Western New York (WNY), integrating individual patient-level genomic sequencing data with a spatially informed agent-based disease Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) computational model. The integration of genomic and spatial data enables a multi-faceted exploration of the factors influencing the transmission patterns of COVID-19, including genetic variations in the viral genomes, population density, and movement dynamics in New York State (NYS). Our genomic analyses provide insights into the genetic heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 within a single lineage, at region-specific resolutions, while our population analyses provide models for SARS-CoV-2 lineage transmission. Together, our findings shed light on localized dynamics of the pandemic, revealing potential cross-county transmission networks. This interdisciplinary approach, bridging genomics and spatial modeling, contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of COVID-19 dynamics. The results of this study have implications for future public health strategies, including guiding targeted interventions and resource allocations to control the spread of similar viruses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The implementation of the WHO's 2015 recommendations in Benin, requires an assessment of the progress made over time in preventing the transmission of the infection to exposed-infants, and the identification of its determinants. Methods: This was a retrospective study of HIV-1 exposed-infants who underwent PCR between the 6th and 8th weeks of life. Early diagnostic tests were performed using the Abbott m2000 RealTime platform. Comparison of proportions tests (analysis of the significance of the difference in prevalence) with an error threshold of 5% were used to assess the determinants of the transmission. Statistical analysis was performed using R statistical software, version 4.1.3.0. Results: A total of 5,312 infants benefited from early diagnosis by PCR between 2016 and 2021. Among them, 52% are males, tritherapy before pregnancy was the majority treatment used by mothers (30.6%) and monotherapy that of newborns (70%). Mixed breastfeeding is the feeding method with the highest prevalence. The overall transmission rate was 3.4% over the six years. The highest prevalence was achieved in 2018 (4.2%) and the lowest in 2021 (2.7%). The prevalence was lower when mothers were on tritherapy before pregnancy. The determinants of transmission were: mixed breastfeeding, lack of treatment in mothers (22.4%), lack of treatment in infants (19.7%), undefined treatments or absence of treatment in the mother-child pair. Conclusion: This study shows the contribution over time of the PMTCT program to reducing HIV transmission among exposed-infants and also underlines the need for proper conduct of treatment in any women of childbearing age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a rapid expansion of Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) sublineage 8.7 over recent years, very little is known about the patterns of virus evolution, dispersal, and the factors influencing this dispersal. Relying on a national PRRSV surveillance project established over 20 years ago, we expand the available genomic data of sublineage 8.7 from China. We perform independent interlineage and intralineage recombination analyses for the entire study period, which showed a heterogeneous recombination pattern. A series of Bayesian phylogeographic analyses uncover the role of Guangdong as an important infection hub within Asia. The spatial spread of PRRSV is highly linked with a composite of human activities and the heterogeneous provincial distribution of the swine industry, largely propelled by the smaller-scale Chinese rural farming systems in the past years. We sequence all four available modified live vaccines (MLVs) and perform genomic analyses with publicly available data, of which our results suggest a key "leaky" period spanning 2011–2017 with two concurrent amino acid mutations in ORF1a 957 and ORF2 250. Overall, our study provides an in-depth overview of the evolution, transmission dynamics, and potential leaky status of HP-PRRS MLVs, providing critical insights into new MLV development. There is limited epidemiological data on PRRSV sublineage 8.7 in Asia. Using national PRRSV surveillance data, the authors compiled a genomic dataset showing a geographically centralized spread, the likely impact of human-related activities on PRRSV spread and regional variability in interlineage recombination likelihood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiological parameters such as the reproduction number, latent period, and infectious period provide crucial information about the spread of infectious diseases and directly inform intervention strategies. These parameters have generally been estimated by mathematical models that involve an unrealistic assumption of history-independent dynamics for simplicity. This assumes that the chance of becoming infectious during the latent period or recovering during the infectious period remains constant, whereas in reality, these chances vary over time. Here, we find that conventional approaches with this assumption cause serious bias in epidemiological parameter estimation. To address this bias, we developed a Bayesian inference method by adopting more realistic history-dependent disease dynamics. Our method more accurately and precisely estimates the reproduction number than the conventional approaches solely from confirmed cases data, which are easy to obtain through testing. It also revealed how the infectious period distribution changed throughout the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 in South Korea. We also provide a user-friendly package, IONISE, that automates this method. In infectious disease models, epidemiological parameters are typically estimated assuming a exponential distributions of latent and infectious periods. Here, the authors show that adapting models to incorporate Gamma distributions produces less biased estimates when applied to the example of the early COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variant calling is fundamental in bacterial genomics, underpinning the identification of disease transmission clusters, the construction of phylogenetic trees, and antimicrobial resistance detection. This study presents a comprehensive benchmarking of variant calling accuracy in bacterial genomes using Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) sequencing data. We evaluated three ONT basecalling models and both simplex (single- strand) and duplex (dual- strand) read types across 14 diverse bacterial species. Our findings reveal that deep learning- based variant callers, particularly Clair3 and DeepVariant, significantly outperform traditional methods and even exceed the accuracy of Illumina sequencing, especially when applied to ONT's super- high accuracy model. ONT's superior performance is attributed to its ability to overcome Illumina's errors, which often arise from difficulties in aligning reads in repetitive and variant- dense genomic regions. Moreover, the use of high- performing variant callers with ONT's super- high accuracy data mitigates ONT's traditional errors in homopolymers. We also investigated the impact of read depth on variant calling, demonstrating that 10x depth of ONT super- accuracy data can achieve precision and recall comparable to, or better than, full- depth Illumina sequencing. These results underscore the potential of ONT sequencing, combined with advanced variant calling algorithms, to replace traditional short- read sequencing methods in bacterial genomics, particularly in resource- limited settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variables related to socioeconomic status (SES), including income, ethnicity, and education, shape contact structures and affect the spread of infectious diseases. However, these factors are often overlooked in epidemic models, which typically stratify social contacts by age and interaction contexts. Here, we introduce and study generalized contact matrices that stratify contacts across multiple dimensions. We demonstrate a lower-bound theorem proving that disregarding additional dimensions, besides age and context, might lead to an underestimation of the basic reproductive number. By using SES variables in both synthetic and empirical data, we illustrate how generalized contact matrices enhance epidemic models, capturing variations in behaviors such as heterogeneous levels of adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions among demographic groups. Moreover, we highlight the importance of integrating SES traits into epidemic models, as neglecting them might lead to substantial misrepresentation of epidemic outcomes and dynamics. Our research contributes to the efforts aiming at incorporating socioeconomic and other dimensions into epidemic modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The RTS,S malaria vaccine has been prequalified for use in endemic settings prioritizing areas with moderate to high disease transmission. The impact of a vaccine at the population level may differ from observations during clinical trial due to programmatic, and individual-related factors, among others. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine on uncomplicated malaria among children aged 12–59 months in the Phase IV study districts, Upper East Region, Ghana. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted using routine malaria surveillance data for the period 2020–2022. The burden of uncomplicated malaria was compared between the implementing (Kasena Nankana East and West districts) and comparator areas (Builsa North and South districts). The impact of RTS,S malaria vaccine was assessed by estimating the percentage reduction in uncomplicated malaria and incidence averted in the implementing area, accounting for the effect of confounders. Results: Over 50,000 episodes of uncomplicated malaria among children aged 12–59 months were included in the study. Uncomplicated malaria was reduced by 33% (95%CI 29–36) over the entire study period, but the malaria incidence averted declined from 324/1,000 (95% CI 298–339; p < 0.0001) in 2020 to 287/1000 (95% CI 274–299; p < 0.0001) in 2022. Conclusion: The RTS,S malaria vaccine significantly reduced the burden of uncomplicated malaria among children aged 12–59 months in the implementing area. The sequential marginal declines in malaria incidence averted over the study period might be due to waning of protective immunity and acquisition of natural immunity as children age. Strengthening uptake of the currently recommended vaccines and other malaria control interventions is required to improve public health impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global outbreak of clade II mpox associated with sexual contact, disproportionately affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), has been ongoing since May 2022. Information on types of contact most associated with transmission is limited. This report used data from a multijurisdictional vaccine effectiveness case-control study of sexually active persons aged 18-49 years who identified as MSM or transgender, collected during August 2022--July 2023. Odds of mpox associated with selected types of intimate and nonintimate close contact with a person with mpox were estimated. Among 457 case-patients and 1,030 control patients who met minimum data requirements, 150 (32.8%) case-patients and 57 (5.5%) control patients reported close contact with a person with mpox and were included in this analysis. Adjusted odds of mpox were 5.4 times as high among those who reported having condomless receptive anal sex with a person with mpox, compared with participants who reported close contact with a person with mpox and no condomless receptive anal sex with that person (OR = 5.4; p = 0.031). Although the mpox vaccine is highly effective, vaccination coverage remains low; a multifaceted approach to prevention remains important and should include vaccination promotion, safer sex practices, and increasing awareness that mpox continues to circulate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), characterized by its high fatality rate, poses a significant public health concern in Argentina due to the increasing evidence of person-to-person transmission of Andes virus. Several orthohantaviruses were described in the country, but their phylogenetic relationships were inferred from partial genomic sequences. The objectives of this work were to assess the viral diversity of the most prevalent orthohantaviruses associated with HPS cases in the Central-East (CE) region of Argentina, elucidate the geographic patterns of distribution of each variant and reconstruct comprehensive phylogenetic relationships utilizing complete genomic sequencing. To accomplish this, a detailed analysis was conducted of the geographic distribution of reported cases within the most impacted province of the region. A representative sample of cases was then selected to generate a geographic map illustrating the distribution of viral variants. Complete viral genomes were obtained from HPS cases reported in the region, including some from epidemiologically linked cases. The phylogenetic analysis based on complete genomes defined two separate clades in Argentina: Andes virus in the Southwestern region and Andes-like viruses in other parts of the country. In the CE region, Buenos Aires virus and Lechiguanas virus clearly segregate in two subclades. Complete genomes were useful to distinguish person-to-person transmission from environmental co-exposure to rodent population. This study enhances the understanding of the genetic diversity, geographical spread, and transmission dynamics of orthohantaviruses in Central Argentina and prompt to consider the inclusion of Buenos Aires virus and Lechiguanas virus in the species Orthohantavirus andesense, as named viruses. Author summary: The discovery of hundreds of novel viruses assignable to the order Bunyavirales in recent years led to International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) to impose the requirement of complete or almost complete viral sequences in order to establish a correct taxonomic classification. As a large number of incomplete sequences has confounded the understanding of Hantavirus diversity, many viruses have been recently declassified including several variants circulating in Argentina. In this work, high quality and complete genomic sequences were obtained of Buenos Aires and Lechiguanas viruses, which are responsible for the majority of the HPS cases in the CE region of Argentina. The information provided in this work will help to consider the re-classification of Lechiguanas and the inclusion of Buenos Aires as named viruses within the species Orthohantavirus andesense. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper begins by analyzing the key mathematical properties of diffusive vaccinated models, including existence, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness. Equilibria are identified, and the basic reproductive number is calculated. The Banach contraction mapping principle is applied to rigorously establish the solution existence and uniqueness. In order to understand the disease's time transmission, it is important to examine the global stability of the equilibrium points. Disease‐free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are the two equilibria in this model. Here, we demonstrate that the endemic equilibrium is worldwide asymptotic stable when the basic reproductive number is greater than 1, and the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotic stable whenever the basic reproductive number is less than 1. Moreover, based on the Caputo fractional derivative of order and the implicit Euler's approximation, we offered an unconditionally stable numerical solution for the resultant system. This work explores the solution of some significant population models of noninteger order using an approach known as the iterative Laplace transform. The proposed methodology is developed by effectively combining Laplace transformation with an iterative procedure. A series form solution that exhibits some convergent behavior towards the precise solution can be attained. It is noted that there is a close contact between the obtained and precise solutions. Moreover, the suggested method can handle a variety of fractional order derivative problems because it involves minimal computations. This information will be helpful in further studies to determine the ideal strategy of action for preventing or stopping the spread disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Traveling to meet sexual partners and substance use are associated with increased risk of infectious disease. It is important to understand what factors may increase substances use or increased infection transmission risk (IITR) sexual behaviors among rural LGBTQ+ individuals.Objective: This study investigates substance use and sexual behaviors associated with increased infection transmission risk among rural LGBTQ+ individuals, and how these are associated with relationship type (friends or romantic partners) and travel distance.Methods: Participants (18 years+, identify as LGBTQ+, and provided a $25 gift card) were recruited from Illinois (25 counties), in 2021. Data included demographics, sexual and drug use behaviors, and assessed how these behaviors varied by relationship type and distance traveled (e.g. when meeting friends out-of-state).Results: The 398 participants were 79.1% White and 12.3% Black. By orientation, 29% heterosexual, 36% gay/lesbian, and 35% bisexual/other. By identity, 43% cisgender male, 51% cisgender female, and 6% genderqueer/other. Alcohol use while visiting out-of-state friends was more frequent among transgender (vs cisgender men; OR = 9.686, 95% confidence interval = 2.123-44.19), and individuals traveling > 1/month (all p < .050). Infection-related sexual behaviors while visiting out-of-state romantic partners was more frequent among prescription medication misuse (all p < .050) and traveling > 1/week (vs < 1/month; OR = 3.399, 95% CI = 1.037-11.144).Conclusion: This study of rural LGBTQ+ identified that alcohol use was associated with travel to visit out-of-state romantic partners, and prescription medication misuse increased infection-related sexual behavior during out-of-state travel. Health professionals can develop substance use and increased infection transmission risk sexual behavior interventions on gender minority groups in rural areas and target those who are traveling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil and Argentina are two of the South American countries that perform the highest number of solid organ transplant procedures globally each year. These procedures are not exempt from risks for the recipient, and there is a risk of donor‐derived infections. Risk mitigation measures for disease transmission from donor to recipient are essential, and biovigilance systems play a crucial role to inform authorities and provide data for the definition of screening procedures and prevention of donor‐derived infections. We herein describe the biovigilance systems in Brazil and Argentina and provide some data regarding potential and effective donors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2022, South Africa (SA) had the second-highest HIV incidence rate among adolescents worldwide. This study's participants were boys living in SA aged 15–19 years old, in a current dating or sexual relationship, and diagnosed with HIV before the age of 10. Despite the launch of campaigns to spread awareness of Undetectable equals Untransmittable (U = U), our findings showed that a significant number of adolescents living with HIV do not demonstrate an understanding of the concept. This highlights the importance of integrating U = U messaging in ongoing conversations with healthcare workers given the potential positive impact on adolescent wellbeing, transmission risk perception, and safer sexual practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Disinfection has a fundamental role in the control of pathogens in the hospital environment. This study was designed to assess the efficacy and functional impact of disinfectants in reducing pathogens related to healthcare associated infections (HAIs) in hospitals. Methods: This observation study was conducted at three university hospitals in Gorgan, Iran, from May to Oct 2023. The data including used disinfectants and microbiological examination were obtained from the infection control unit of each hospital. Results: The results showed that a variety of disinfectants from intermediate to high levels were employed in accordance with the World Health Organization (WHO) protocols. The microbial result revealed that 31.6% (286 out of 906) of the sample had at least one microorganism. Among identified organisms, Bacillus spp. were the predominant species followed by Staphylococcus epidermis, fungus genera, Enterobacter spp., Enterococcus spp., Pseudomonas spp., Escherichia coli, Alcaligenes spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Citrobacter spp., Corynebacterium spp., Klebsiella spp., Acinetobacter spp., Micrococcus spp., Staphylococcus saprophyticus, and Serratias spp. The highest prevalence rates of microorganisms were observed in the wards of ICU, emergency, internal medicine, and women's ward. The chi-square test revealed a significant relationship between the presence of organisms and hospital wards (P < 0.05). Conclusion: The presence of pathogens indicates a defect in the disinfection process, probably due to both little attention to disinfection protocols and multidrug resistance. It is not yet possible to eliminate pathogens from the hospital environment, but it can be minimized by education intervention, standardizing disinfecting processes, and monitoring by the infection control committee. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are effective in mitigating infections during the early stages of an infectious disease outbreak. However, these measures incur significant economic and livelihood costs. To address this, we developed an optimal control framework aimed at identifying strategies that minimize such costs while ensuring full control of a cross-regional outbreak of emerging infectious diseases. Our approach uses a spatial SEIR model with interventions for the epidemic process, and incorporates population flow in a gravity model dependent on gross domestic product (GDP) and geographical distance. We applied this framework to identify an optimal control strategy for the COVID-19 outbreak caused by the Delta variant in Xi'an City, Shaanxi, China, between December 2021 and January 2022. The model was parameterized by fitting it to daily case data from each district of Xi'an City. Our findings indicate that an increase in the basic reproduction number, the latent period or the infectious period leads to a prolonged outbreak and a larger final size. This indicates that diseases with greater transmissibility are more challenging and costly to control, and so it is important for governments to quickly identify cases and implement control strategies. Indeed, the optimal control strategy we identified suggests that more costly control measures should be implemented as soon as they are deemed necessary. Our results demonstrate that optimal control regimes exhibit spatial, economic, and population heterogeneity. More populated and economically developed regions require a robust regular surveillance mechanism to ensure timely detection and control of imported infections. Regions with higher GDP tend to experience larger-scale epidemics and, consequently, require higher control costs. Notably, our proposed optimal strategy significantly reduced costs compared to the actual expenditures for the Xi'an outbreak. Author summary: In the early stage of the outbreak of an emerging infectious disease, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the most effective way to control the spread of the disease given unavailability of effective medicines or vaccines. However, the implementation of NPIs may have a certain negative impact on the society and economy. There are many challenges to designing an effective and economical control regime on the basis of spatial, populate and economical heterogeneity. We developed a modelling framework to couple transmission dynamics, all possible control measures and the spatial mobility, aiming at controlling the outbreak spreading across regions and reducing the economic losses caused by control measures. We applied this framework to identify the optimal control strategy for the COVID-19 outbreak in Xi'an City, China, between December 2021 and January 2022. We analyzed the key factors related to the outbreak size and control cost, and the results showed that the outbreak size and control cost were significantly correlated with the transmissibility of the virus and the demographic and economic conditions of the epidemic area. Our results demonstrate that optimal control regimes exhibit spatial, economic, and population heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an ecosystem, harvesting infected prey can assist in managing and containing the spread of the illness within the prey species. On the other hand, the harvesting of predators can be beneficial as it regulates their numbers, preventing them from over-consuming prey and subsequently preserving existence of the prey population. This study introduces a predator–prey model that encompasses prey infection, predator–prey interactions influenced by fear, switching and harvesting. We derive an analytic expression for the basic reproduction number, a critical determinant of disease spread. We investigate the global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria contingent on the basic reproduction number’s value, highlighting the potential for disease eradication by maintaining it below unity. In-depth analysis of the deterministic model is undertaken, with a focus on Hopf bifurcations that delineate thresholds for disease-free and endemic states. Furthermore, the deterministic model is extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity. We obtain the conditions under which population extinction occurs. Our findings elucidate how the intensity of environmental noise influences population dynamics, providing valuable insights into extinction risks under varying noise levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue is endemic in Vietnam with circulation of all four serotypes (DENV1-4) all year-round. It is hard to estimate the disease's true serotype-specific transmission patterns from cases due to its high asymptomatic rate, low reporting rate and complex immunity and transmission dynamics. Seroprevalence studies have been used to great effect for understanding patterns of dengue transmission. We tested 991 population serum samples (ages 1–30 years, collected 2013 to 2017), 531 from Ho Chi Minh City and 460 from Khanh Hoa in Vietnam, using a flavivirus protein microarray assay. By applying our previously developed inference framework to the antibody profiles from this assay, we can (1) determine proportions of a population that have not been infected or infected, once, or more than once, and (2) infer the infecting serotype in those infected once. With these data, we then use mathematical models to estimate the force of infection (FOI) for all four DENV serotypes in HCMC and KH over 35 years up to 2017. Models with time-varying or serotype-specific DENV FOI assumptions fit the data better than constant FOI. Annual dengue FOI ranged from 0.005 (95%CI: 0.003–0.008) to 0.201 (95%CI: 0.174–0.228). FOI varied across serotypes, higher for DENV1 (95%CI: 0.033–0.048) and DENV2 (95%CI: 0.018–0.039) than DENV3 (95%CI: 0.007–0.010) and DENV4 (95%CI: 0.010–0.016). The use of the PMA on serial age-stratified cross-sectional samples increases the amount of information on transmission and population immunity, and should be considered for future dengue serological surveys, particularly to understand population immunity given vaccines with differential efficacy against serotypes, however, there remains limits to what can be inferred even using this assay. Author summary: Dengue is endemic in Vietnam and this virus consists of four serotypes (DENV1-4) that circulate- all year-round. It has complex transmission and immunity dynamics, which makes serotype-specific transmission patterns difficult to estimate. Moreover, high asymptomatic rates which leads to under reporting and little serotype testing of cases adds to this issue. Many studies have shown that seroprevalence studies are useful to understanding dengue transmission patterns, hence, we undertook a seroprevalence studies in Ho Chi Minh City and Khanh Hoa, Vietnam. We tested samples using a flavivirus protein microarray (PMA) serological assay and used previously developed frameworks to estimate past infection exposures for each individual. With these past exposure histories, we estimated the transmission intensity for all four dengue serotypes. We found this method provided substantial information on past serotype transmission. We estimated the annual dengue force of infection (FOI) ranged from 0.005 (95%CI: 0.003–0.008) to 0.201 (95%CI: 0.174–0.228). FOI varied across serotypes, higher for DENV1 (95%CI: 0.033–0.048) and DENV2 (95%CI: 0.018–0.039) than DENV3 (95%CI: 0.007–0.010) and DENV4 (95%CI: 0.010–0.016). This method can be used for planning future control measures, especially vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, a two‐sex deterministic model for human papillomavirus (HPV) is developed to assess the impact of screening awareness and vaccination on the transmission dynamics. We provide a detailed analysis of the HPV model and established results for boundedness of the solutions and existence of a positively invariant and attracting set. The basic reproduction number R0$$ {R}_0 $$ is characterized, and it is shown that the disease‐free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R0<1$$ {R}_0<1 $$ and the system is uniformly persistent if R0>1$$ {R}_0>1 $$. Sensitivity analysis of R0$$ {R}_0 $$ reveals that HPV vaccination can mitigate HPV transmission, and HPV vaccination along with screening can further reduce the spread of HPV infection. Numerical simulations showed that the public awareness of screening after being vaccinated is contributing to reduce the spread of epidemic, and the role of screening awareness in controlling the disease was significantly greater among men than women. Besides, the numerical simulations reveal that increasing vaccination rates for male is effective in controlling HPV transmission. Hence, it is necessary to enhance the screening for men. Moreover, increasing vaccination rates is more effective than increasing screening awareness in eliminating the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Places of worship serve as a venue for both mass and routine gathering around the world, and therefore are associated with risk of large-scale SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, such routine gatherings also offer an opportunity to distribute self-tests to members of the community to potentially help mitigate transmission and reduce broader community spread of SARS-CoV-2. Over the past four years, self-testing strategies have been an impactful tool for countries' response to the COVID-19 pandemic, especially early on to mitigate the spread when vaccination and treatment options were limited. We used an agent-based mathematical model to estimate the impact of various strategies of symptomatic and asymptomatic self-testing for a fixed percentage of weekly routine gatherings at places of worship on community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil, Georgia, and Zambia. Testing strategies assessed included weekly and bi-weekly self-testing across varying levels of vaccine effectiveness, vaccine coverage, and reproductive numbers to simulate developing stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Self-testing symptomatic people attending routine gatherings can cost-effectively reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within places of worship and the community, resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $69-$303 USD. This trend is especially true in contexts where population level attendance at such gatherings is high, demonstrating that a distribution approach is more impactful when a greater proportion of the population is reached. Asymptomatic self-testing of attendees at 100% of places of worship in a country results in the greatest percent of infections averted and is consistently cost-effective but remains costly. Budgetary needs for asymptomatic testing are expensive and likely unaffordable for lower-middle income countries (520-1550x greater than that of symptomatic testing alone), promoting that strategies to strengthen symptomatic testing should remain a higher priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Plasmodium knowlesi, identified as the fifth human malaria parasite, has rapidly spread across various Southeast Asian countries, yet uncertainties persist regarding its human-mosquito-human transmission. Therefore, this study aims to explore the transmission potential of P. knowlesi from human blood to mosquitoes. Methods: A direct membrane-feeding assay was conducted by infecting laboratory-reared female Anopheles dirus mosquitoes with P. knowlesi-infected human blood from a single patient presenting with febrile malaria. Mosquitoes were dissected 7 days post-infection under a stereomicroscope to detect oocysts in the midgut, stained with mercurochrome. Salivary glands were examined 14 days post-infection for the presence of sporozoites. Malaria diagnosis employed microscopy by expert microscopists and nested PCR assays. Results: Upon dissecting 745 out of 1439 blood-fed An. dirus mosquitoes on day 7 post-infection, two oocysts were identified in the midguts of two mosquitoes (0.27%). An additional 694 mosquitoes were dissected for salivary glands on day 14 post-infection, with three mosquitoes (0.43%) exhibiting sporozoites. Further confirmation by nested-PCR assay verified these sporozoites as belonging to the P. knowlesi species. Conclusions: The findings underscore the potential transmission of P. knowlesi from human blood to mosquitoes. The significance of these findings necessitates further investigation, such as repeating similar experiments among natural vectors, to gain deeper insights into the transmission dynamics of P. knowlesi in Southeast Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surveillance and detection of zoonotic pathogens in animals is essential for predicting disease transmission pathways and the risks of spillover, but challenges include the costs, ethics and technical expertise required for vertebrate trapping, serum sampling and antibody or virus screening. Surveillance using haematophagous arthropods as a sampling tool offers a unique opportunity to obtain blood samples from a wide range of vertebrate species, allowing the study of host-mosquito associations, and host exposure to pathogens. We explored vertebrate diversity and potential Ross River virus (RRV) transmission pathways by analysing blood-fed mosquitoes collected in Brisbane, Australia. Host origins were identified using barcode sequencing, and host exposure to RRV was assessed using a modified plaque reduction neutralisation test. In total, 480 blood-fed mosquitoes were collected between February 2021 and May 2022. The host origins of 346 (72%) bloodmeals were identified, with humans (73%) and cattle (9%) comprising the dominant hosts. RRV seroprevalence was high in both vertebrate species with evidence of RRV exposure in 70% (21/30) of cattle and 52% (132/253) of humans. This is a novel, non-invasive method of estimating seroprevalence in vertebrate host populations. Our results highlight the potential of blood-fed mosquitoes to provide species-specific insights into pathogen transmission dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prisons, due to various risk factors, are environments that are conducive to infectious disease transmission, with significantly higher prevalence of infectious diseases within prisons compared to the general population. This underscores the importance of preventive measures, particularly vaccination. As part of the international project "Reaching the hard-to-reach: Increasing access and vaccine uptake among the prison population in Europe" (RISE-Vac), this study aimed to map the availability and delivery framework of vaccination services in prisons across Europe and beyond. A questionnaire designed to collect data on the availability and delivery model of vaccination services in prisons was validated and uploaded in SurveyMonkey in July 2023. Then, it was submitted to potential participants, with at least one representative from each European country. Potential participants emailed an invitation letter by the RISE-Vac partners and by the European Organization of Prison and Correctional Services (EUROPRIS). Twenty European countries responded. Vaccines are available in European countries, although their availability differs by country and type of vaccine. The first dose is offered to people living in prisons (PLP), mostly within one month, COVID-19 is the most widely offered vaccine. In all countries, vaccines are actively offered by healthcare workers; in most countries, there is no evaluation of vaccination status among people who work in prison. The survey shows variance in vaccine availability for PLP and staff across countries and vaccine types. Quality healthcare in prisons is not only a matter of the right to health but also a critical public health investment: enhancing vaccine uptake consistently among PLP and staff should be prioritized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]