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This paper introduces a complement statistical test for distinguishing between the predictive accuracy of two sets of forecasts. We propose a non-parametric test founded upon the principles of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, referred to as the KS Predictive Accuracy (KSPA) test. The KSPA test is able to serve two distinct purposes. Initially, the test seeks to determine whether there exists a statistically significant difference between the distribution of forecast errors, and secondly it exploits the principles of stochastic dominance to determine whether the forecasts with the lower error also reports a stochastically smaller error than forecasts from a competing model, and thereby enables distinguishing between the predictive accuracy of forecasts. We perform a simulation study for the size and power of the proposed test and report the results for different noise distributions, sample sizes and forecasting horizons. The simulation results indicate that the KSPA test is correctly sized, and robust in the face of varying forecasting horizons and sample sizes along with significant accuracy gains reported especially in the case of small sample sizes. Real world applications are also considered to illustrate the applicability of the proposed KSPA test in practice.

Several graphical methods for testing univariate composite normality from an i.i.d. sample are presented. They are endowed with correct simultaneous error bounds and yield size-correct tests. As all are based on the empirical CDF, they are also consistent for all alternatives. For one test, called the modified stabilized probability test, or MSP, a highly simplified computational method is derived, which delivers the test statistic and also a highly accurate p-value approximation, essentially instantaneously. The MSP test is demonstrated to have higher power against asymmetric alternatives than the well-known and powerful Jarque-Bera test. A further size-correct test, based on combining two test statistics, is shown to have yet higher power. The methodology employed is fully general and can be applied to any i.i.d. univariate continuous distribution setting.

We examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and\ud model selection for autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects. We find that the\ud transformation of fixed effects proposed by Lancaster (2002) does not necessarily lead to\ud consistent estimation of common parameters when some true exogenous regressors are\ud excluded. We propose a data dependent way to specify the prior of the autoregressive\ud coefficient and argue for comparing different model specifications before parameter\ud estimation. Model selection properties of Bayes factors and Bayesian information criterion\ud (BIC) are investigated. When model uncertainty is substantial, we recommend the use\ud of Bayesian Model Averaging to obtain point estimators with lower root mean squared\ud errors (RMSE). We also study the implications of different levels of inclusion probabilities\ud by simulations.

Examinations of the dynamics of daily returns and volatility in stock markets of the U.S., Hong Kong and mainland China (Shanghai and Shenzhen) over 2 January 2001 to 8 February 2013 suggest: (1) evidence of unidirectional return spillovers from the U.S. to the other three markets, but no spillover between Hong Kong and either of the two mainland China markets, (2) evidence of unidirectional ARCH and GARCH effects from the U.S. to the other three markets, (3) correlations of returns vary across markets, with the highest correlation of 93.5% between the two Chinese markets, medium correlation of 30% between mainland China and Hong Kong markets and low correlations of 6.4% and 7.2% between the U.S. and China’s two markets, thus, international investors may benefit by allocating their assets in China’s markets, (4) the patterns of dynamic conditional correlations from the DCC model suggest an increase in correlation between China and other stock markets since the most recent financial crisis of 2007.

The classical Chow test for structural instability requires strictly exogenous regressors and a break-point specified in advance. In this paper, we consider two generalisations, the one-step recursive Chow test (based on the sequence of studentised recursive residuals) and its supremum counterpart, which relaxes these requirements. We use results on the strong consistency of regression estimators to show that the one-step test is appropriate for stationary, unit root or explosive processes modelled in the autoregressive distributed lags (ADL) framework. We then use the results in extreme value theory to develop a new supremum version of the test, suitable for formal testing of structural instability with an unknown break-point. The test assumes the normality of errors and is intended to be used in situations where this can be either assumed nor established empirically. Simulations show that the supremum test has desirable power properties, in particular against level shifts late in the sample and against outliers. An application to U.K. GDP data is given.

As a basis for information recovery in open dynamic microeconomic systems, we emphasize the connection between adaptive intelligent behavior, causal entropy maximization and self-organized equilibrium seeking behavior. This entropy-based causal adaptive behavior framework permits the use of information-theoretic methods as a solution basis for the resulting pure and stochastic inverse economic-econometric problems. We cast the information recovery problem in the form of a binary network and suggest information-theoretic methods to recover estimates of the unknown binary behavioral parameters without explicitly sampling the configuration-arrangement of the sample space.

This paper discusses nonparametric kernel regression with the regressor being a \(d\)-dimensional \(\beta\)-null recurrent process in presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. We show that the mean function estimator is consistent with convergence rate \(\sqrt{n(T)h^{d}}\), where \(n(T)\) is the number of regenerations for a \(\beta\)-null recurrent process and the limiting distribution (with proper normalization) is normal. Furthermore, we show that the two-step estimator for the volatility function is consistent. The finite sample performance of the estimate is quite reasonable when the leave-one-out cross validation method is used for bandwidth selection. We apply the proposed method to study the relationship of Federal funds rate with 3-month and 5-year T-bill rates and discover the existence of nonlinearity of the relationship. Furthermore, the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the nonparametric model is far better than the linear model.

This study aims to review how the Eurozone has been formed and to analyze how it has been formed on weak roots, both in public finance and politics. Contrary to economical ideas, political grounds tested the endeavor of creating a powerful the monetary union. Hence, it was very clean to predict upcoming the debt crisis. According to those assumptions known, pre-crisis problems of the countries has been reviewed. Latter, the crisis’ permanency has been tested via PANKPSS if it’s permanent or not? Mainstream acknowledgement on the literature agrees on the crisis is permanent and might lead to dire consequences. Nevertheless, nexus between those countries which has been forged by political bounds cannot be broken by that crisis; thus, the Eurozone might not be break down.

This paper focuses on finding starting-values for the estimation of Vector STAR models. Based on a Monte Carlo study, different procedures are evaluated. Their performance is assessed with respect to model fit and computational effort. I employ (i) grid search algorithms and (ii) heuristic optimization procedures, namely differential evolution, threshold accepting, and simulated annealing. In the equation-by-equation starting-value search approach the procedures achieve equally good results. Unless the errors are cross-correlated, equation-by-equation search followed by a derivative-based algorithm can handle such an optimization problem sufficiently well. This result holds also for higher-dimensional Vector STAR models with a slight edge for heuristic methods. For more complex Vector STAR models which require a multivariate search approach, simulated annealing and differential evolution outperform threshold accepting and the grid search.

Using the result that under the null hypothesis of no misspecification an asymptotically efficient estimator must have zero asymptotic covariance with its difference from a consistent but asymptotically inefficient estimator, specification tests are devised for a number of model specifications in econometrics. Local power is calculated for small departures from the null hypothesis. An instrumental variable test as well as tests for a time series cross section model and the simultaneous equation model are presented. An empirical model provides evidence that unobserved individual factors are present which are not orthogonal to the included right-hand-side variable in a common econometric specification of an individual wage equation.

In this paper, we develop a new model of a static game of incomplete information with a large number of players. The model has two key distinguishing features. First, the strategies are subject to threshold effects, and can be interpreted as dependent censored random variables. Second, in contrast to most of the existing literature, our inferential theory relies on a large number of players, rather than a large number of independent repetitions of the same game. We establish existence and uniqueness of the pure strategy equilibrium, and prove that the censored equilibrium strategies satisfy a near-epoch dependence property. We then show that the normal maximum likelihood and least squares estimators of this censored model are consistent and asymptotically normal. Our model can be useful in a wide variety of settings, including investment, R&amp, D, labor supply, and social interaction applications.

Many econometric analyses have attempted to model medal winnings as dependent on per capita GDP and population size. This approach ignores the size and composition of the team of athletes, especially the role of female participation and the role of sports culture, and also provides an inadequate explanation of the variability between the outcomes of countries with similar features. This paper proposes a model that offers two substantive advancements, both of which shed light on previously hidden aspects of Olympic success. First, we propose a selection model that treats the process of fielding any winner and the subsequent level of total winnings as two separate, but related, processes. Second, our model takes a more structural angle, in that we view GDP and population size as inputs into the "production" of athletes. After that production process, those athletes then compete to win medals. We use country-level panel data for the seven Summer Olympiads from 1988 to 2012. The size and composition of the country's Olympic team are shown to be highly significant factors, as is also the past performance, which generates a persistence effect.

The present paper aims at describing some key elements of the new classical theory-related model, namely the Real Business Cycle, mainly describing the economy from the perspective of a perfectly competitive market, characterised by price, wage and interest rate flexibility. The rendered impulse-response functions, that help us in revealing the capacity of the model variables to return to their steady state under the impact of a structural shock, be it technology or monetary policy oriented, give points to the neutrality of the monetary entity decisions, therefore confirming the well-known classical dichotomy existing between the nominal and the real factors of the economy.

The Heckman sample selection model relies on the assumption of normal and homoskedastic disturbances. However, before considering more general, alternative semiparametric models that do not need the normality assumption, it seems useful to test this assumption. Following Meijer and Wansbeek (2007), the present contribution derives a GMM-based pseudo-score LM test on whether the third and fourth moments of the disturbances of the outcome equation of the Heckman model conform to those implied by the truncated normal distribution. The test is easy to calculate and in Monte Carlo simulations it shows good performance for sample sizes of 1000 or larger.

The complex datasets cannot be analyzed using only simple regressions. Multilevel models (also known as hierarchical linear models, nested models, mixed models, random coefficient, random-effects models, random parameter models or split-plot designs) are statistical models of parameters that vary at more than one level. Multilevel models can be used on data with many levels, although 2-level models are the most common. Multilevel models, or mixed effects models, can be estimated in R. There are several packages available in CRAN. In this paper we are presenting some common methods to analyze these models.

Credible Granger-causality analysis appears to require post-sample inference, as it is well-known that in-sample fit can be a poor guide to actual forecasting effectiveness. However, post-sample model testing requires an often-consequential a priori partitioning of the data into an “in-sample” period – purportedly utilized only for model specification/estimation – and a “post-sample” period, purportedly utilized (only at the end of the analysis) for model validation/testing purposes. This partitioning is usually infeasible, however, with samples of modest length – e.g., T ≤ 150 – as is common in both quarterly data sets and/or in monthly data sets where institutional arrangements vary over time, simply because there is in such cases insufficient data available to credibly accomplish both purposes separately. A cross-sample validation (CSV) testing procedure is proposed below which both eliminates the aforementioned a priori partitioning and which also substantially ameliorates this power versus credibility predicament – preserving most of the power of in-sample testing (by utilizing all of the sample data in the test), while also retaining most of the credibility of post-sample testing (by always basing model forecasts on data not utilized in estimating that particular model’s coefficients). Simulations show that the price paid, in terms of power relative to the in-sample Granger-causality F test, is manageable. An illustrative application is given, to a re-analysis of the Engel andWest [1] study of the causal relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate; several of their conclusions are changed by our analysis. Published version

This study extends prior research on referee bias and close bias in professional soccer by examining whether Major League Soccer (MLS) referees’ discretion over stoppage time (i.e., extra play beyond regulation) is influenced by end-of-regulation match scores and/or home field advantage. To do so, we employ a grouped-data regression model and a partially adaptive model. Both account for the imprecise measurement in reported stoppage time. For the 2011 season we find no home field advantage. In fact, stoppage time is the same with a one or two goal deficit at the end of regulation, regardless of which team is ahead. However, the 2011 results do point to an increase in stoppage time of 12 to 20 seconds for nationally televised matches. For the 2012 season, the nationally televised effect disappears due to an increase in stoppage time for those matches not nationally televised. However, a home field advantage is present. Facing a one-goal deficit at the end of regulation, the home team receives about 33 seconds more stoppage time than a visiting team facing the same deficit.

The financial distress risk concept has been referred as follow: negative net assets, insolvency, bond default, overdraft, unpaid dividends for the preferred stocks, bankruptcy etc. From all the stakeholders, investors are interested in the financial position and performance of a company and its ability to continue as a going concern, without knowing the appearance of financial distress status. The purpose of this study aims to test the value relevance of the appearance of distress risk on investors’ decisions on the purchase or sale of stock, with impact on stock return, for the Romanian listed companies in RASDAQ section. In order to reach the objective, the study was carried on upon a sample of 70 Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) listed companies, between 2008 and 2014, using statistical methods like analysis of variance (ANOVA), simple linear regression and ANCOVA models. Through the obtained results, it was demonstrated the difference between financial distressed companies and performant companies and the influence of belonging to a company in the high risk category on the stock return.

This paper explores long wave theory, including Kondratieff's theory of cycles in production and relative prices; Kuznets's theory of cycles arising from infrastructure investments; Schumpeter's theory of cycles due to waves of technological innovation; Goodwin's theory of cyclical growth based on employment and wage share dynamics; Keynes–Kaldor–Kalecki's demand and investment-oriented theories of cycles; and Minsky's financial instability hypothesis whereby capitalist economies show a genetic propensity to boom–bust cycles. This literature has been out of favor for many years but recent developments suggest a re-examination is warranted and timely.

The aim of this research is find a model for optimal resource allocation in Banks of iran. So in this study we want to present a mathematical model based on the linear programming models to find the best combination of facilities of resources. For case study in Among the Iranian banks we select The maskan bank. At first look, the banks take action in two fields: one is mobilization of financial resources and the other is resource allocation. Allocation encounters some limitations which affect the model, for example there should be balance between resources and expenditures and the expenditures should not be more than resources, also relative contribution of the sectors should be respected. Here, banks considering credit risk of customers should enforce their facility demands because the loan portfolio management problems, has been the main factor of bank bankruptcy. In the model, facilities are considered as six variables. Using LINDO software can solve the model. At first we have determined the target and then specified the limitations of model and finally wrote the Model. The results of the model were obtained in two forms: with and without into account the resources of Javanan maskan savings fund. The findings showed if mathematical model had been used in the year, the more revenue of facilities was obtained.

We analyze a series of macroeconometric models developed in the years of high theory by Marschak, Frisch and Leontief. These models share an explanation of growth, cycles and fluctuations (“economic change”), based on the analysis of the circulation of capital goods among producers. They disaggregate the macroeconomic production function so as to introduce multiple producers and capital goods. We show that these models offer two main explanations of economic change: one is based on the spread of technological change through the producers’ exchanges network; the other is based on the coordination problems between producers in the capital circulation process.

Áttekintő tanulmányunk célja, hogy - a modern panelökonometria történetén és fejlődésén keresztül - bemutassa, milyen általános és módszertani következményekkel járhat a jelenleg zajló közgazdasági adatforradalom. Látni fogjuk, hogy a fejlődés valójában alulról építkezik: a paneltípusú adatok megjelenése különböző problémákat hoz felszínre, amelyekre elméleti és módszertani újításokat adó válaszok születnek, s az újítások aztán visszahatnak újabb és egyre bonyolultabb adatbázisok gyűjtésére. Ez a visszacsatolási mechanizmus a legfontosabb mozgatórugója a jelenleg zajló, úgynevezett big data adatforradalomnak, amelynek eredményeképpen mélyebb s egyszerre átfogóbb és részletesebb képet kaphatunk a gazdaság egészének működéséről. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: A11, B23, N01, O30., The main aim of the survey is to present the data revolution currently underway in economics, through the history and development of panel data econometrics. The authors demonstrate that progress is occurring from the bottom up: the emergence of various panel data sets brings to light various questions and problems, which then inspire and yield new theoretical and methodological results; these in turn may produce new, more informative, more complex data sets. This feedback mechanism provides the main impetus behind the current data revolution, resulting in a deeper, more complex and nuanced picture of the economy.

in the prediction of quantiles of daily Standard&Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) returns we consider how to use high-frequency 5-minute data. We examine methods that incorporate the high frequency information either indirectly, through combining forecasts (using forecasts generated from returns sampled at different intraday interval), or directly, through combining high frequency information into one model. We consider subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging methods for the indirect case, and factor models with principal component approach, for both direct and indirect cases. We show that in forecasting the daily S&P 500 index return quantile (Value-at-Risk or VaR is simply the negative of it), using high-frequency information is beneficial, often substantially and particularly so, in forecasting downside risk. Our empirical results show that the averaging methods (subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging), which serve as different ways of forming the ensemble average from using high-frequency intraday information, provide an excellent forecasting performance compared to using just low-frequency daily information.

This paper focuses on the diagnostic checking of vector ARMA (VARMA) models with multivariate GARCH errors. For a fitted VARMA-GARCH model with Gaussian or Student-t innovations, we derive the asymptotic distributions of autocorrelation matrices of the cross-product vector of standardized residuals. This is different from the traditional approach that employs only the squared series of standardized residuals. We then study two portmanteau statistics, called Q1(M) and Q2(M), for model checking. A residual-based bootstrap method is provided and demonstrated as an effective way to approximate the diagnostic checking statistics. Simulations are used to compare the performance of the proposed statistics with other methods available in the literature. In addition, we also investigate the effect of GARCH shocks on checking a fitted VARMA model. Empirical sizes and powers of the proposed statistics are investigated and the results suggest a procedure of using jointly Q1(M) and Q2(M) in diagnostic checking. The bivariate time series of FTSE 100 and DAX index returns is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed portmanteau statistics. The results show that it is important to consider the cross-product series of standardized residuals and GARCH effects in model checking.

The recent volatile behaviour of U.K. inflation has been officially attributed to a sequence of "unusual" price changes, prompting renewed interest in the construction of measures of "core inflation", from which such unusual price changes may be down- weighted or even excluded. This paper proposes a new approach to constructing core inflation based on detailed analysis of the temporal stochastic structure of the individual prices underlying a particular index. This approach is illustrated using the section structure of the U.K. retail price index (RPI), providing a number of measures of core inflation that can be automatically calculated and updated to provide both a current assessment and forecasts of the underlying inflation rate in the U.K.

This paper develops model selection and averaging methods for moment restriction models. We first propose a focused information criterion based on the generalized empirical likelihood estimator. We address the issue of selecting an optimal model, rather than a correct model, for estimating a specific parameter of interest. Then, this study investigates a generalized empirical likelihood-based model averaging estimator that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error. A simulation study suggests that our averaging estimator can be a useful alternative to existing post-selection estimators.

This paper empirically estimates disaggregated crime categories for Sabah from 1968 to 2006. The criminometric analysis incorporated in a within sample analysis of cointegration and error correction framework and the beyond sample analysis using the decompositions of variance. Our findings suggest that any support for the deterrence hypothesis is sensitive to the inclusion of prison or courts related variables. In the long run we find that only robbery is exogenous in all crime model tested however, the beyond sample estimation proves that in longer time period of approximately 50 years the post-sample dynamic VDCs imply that a substantial portion of the variance of the forecast error of these crime are explained by their explanatory variables. The presence of cointegration between these variables tends to suggest that these economic and deterrent variables, along with alternative types of crime, are bound together by common trends. In other words, it can be said that although these cointegrated variables will have short-run or temporal deviations from their long-run common trends, eventually forces will be set in motion that will bring all the variables into states of equilibrium.

This paper revises the development and present condition of the Input-Output analysis published in Castilian, from a Mexican viewpoint. The paper combines a historical perspective on the earlier publications and presents some contemporary lines of the applied investigation.

The structure of the paper brings together three major sections, following the general approach to the impact of paradoxes in economic theory. The first section describes a necessary investigation in the synthesized universe of paradoxes, to capitalize on Quine’s paradox taxonomy, and to reveal the importance of really paraconsistent paradoxes, defining, in a relative and innovative manner, economic paradoxism in the sense of excess of creative capitalization of paradoxes in the area of science, as initiated by mathematician and logician Florentin Smarandache. The second section turns into an original exposition of economics theory and the third section reveals the concept of meson economics and the principles of that economy, completed with some final remarks, some of which are conclusive, and some others interrogative, aligned to the paradox of knowledge, in keeping with which human beings are looking for answers, and finally find more and more questions.

At the 1927 meetings of the American Economic Association, Paul Douglas presented a paper entitled “A Theory of Production,” which he had coauthored with Charles Cobb. The paper proposed the now familiar Cobb–Douglas function as a mathematical representation of the relationship between capital, labor, and output. The paper's innovation, however, was not the function itself, which had originally been proposed by Knut Wicksell, but the use of the function as the basis of a statistical procedure for estimating the relationship between inputs and output. The paper's least squares regression of the log of the output-to-capital ratio in manufacturing on the log of the labor-to-capital ratio—the first Cobb–Douglas regression—was a realization of Douglas's innovative vision that a stable relationship between empirical measures of inputs and outputs could be discovered through statistical analysis, and that this stable relationship could cast light on important questions of economic theory and policy. This essay provides an account of the introduction of the Cobb–Douglas regression: its roots in Douglas's own work and in trends in economics in the 1920s, its initial application to time series data in the 1927 paper and Douglas's 1934 book The Theory of Wages, and the early reactions of economists to this new empirical tool.

The theorem proving the existence of general equilibrium in a competitive economy, which necessarily involved specifying the conditions under which such an equilibrium would exist, is an extraordinary achievement of twentieth-century economics. The discovery is commonly attributed to a paper by (eventual) Nobel Prize winners Kenneth Arrow and Gerard Debreau: “Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy,” published in the July 1954 issue of Econometrica. However it is less well-known that Lionel McKenzie published a paper in the previous issue of Econometrica, “On Equilibrium in Graham's Model of World Trade and Other Competitive Systems,” that discussed many of the same themes. Both papers established the existence of a competitive equilibrium for suitable general equilibrium models and employed fixed point theorem arguments. McKenzie had priority in publication in 1954 and received credit for simultaneous discovery in prominent sources around that time. But over the years, McKenzie's role in creating the proof of the existence of a general equilibrium seems to have faded from the collective consciousness of the economics profession. Newly available archival material permits a reexamination of the events surrounding the publication of both Econometrica papers in 1954. The story raises general issues concerning “simultaneous discovery,” “priority,” and “credit” in economic research and opens a window into some academic practices of that time.

I examine two competing proposals for reforming and reviving confidence in the international monetary regime. Robert Triffin introduced and championed the proposal for centralized reserves. Fritz Machlup championed the proposal for flexible rates originally introduced by Milton Friedman. Triffin claimed that Fritz Machlup did more than anyone to ensure that floating exchange rates won the policy debate because of his influence on academic economists and policy makers. I examine Machlup’s influence on these opinion molders through his leadership of the Bellagio Group conferences.

Econometricians have from the start considered historical knowledge of their own discipline as reflexive knowledge useful for delineating their discipline, that is, for setting its disciplinary boundaries with respect to its aims, its methods, and its scientific values. As such, the histories written by econometricians reflect the scientific image of their discipline in a given period. Each image of a period is drawn by denominating forerunners and founding fathers and uses the language of the dominant philosophy of science of that day. At the end of the nineteenth century, a scientific theory had to be mathematical; in the interbellum the image of science was that of logical positivism. In the 1970s and 1980s the dominant views were those of Karl Popper, Imre Lakatos, and Thomas Kuhn. Currently the scientific image in econometrics is the one of the Stanford school (Nancy Cartwright, Ian Hacking, and Patrick Suppes).

This paper presents a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for Venezuela that incorporates inter-sectorial relationships. With this model it is possible to assess the impact on the aggregate economic activity generated by productivity shocks or demand shocks to a specific sector and/or how changes at the aggregate level could affect the sectorial activity. The model is used to evaluate the aggregate and sectorial responses to shocks of different nature, under diverse assumptions about the inter-sectorial relationships and expectations formation. The results suggest that the omission of inter-sectorial relations and inadequate treatment of expectations can produce unrealistic results or dynamics. In quantitative terms, the omission of rational expectations seems to be less critical. However, this could change in an environment with more frictions.

Cikkünk arról a paradox jelenségről szól, hogy a fogyasztást explicit módon megjelenítő Neumann-modell egyensúlyi megoldásaiban a munkabért meghatározó létszükségleti termékek ára esetenként nulla lehet, és emiatt a reálbér egyensúlyi értéke is nulla lesz. Ez a jelenség mindig bekövetkezik az olyan dekomponálható gazdaságok esetén, amelyekben eltérő növekedési és profitrátájú, alternatív egyensúlyi megoldások léteznek. A jelenség sokkal áttekinthetőbb formában tárgyalható a modell Leontief-eljárásra épülő egyszerűbb változatában is, amit ki is használunk. Megmutatjuk, hogy a legnagyobbnál alacsonyabb szintű növekedési tényezőjű megoldások közgazdasági szempontból értelmetlenek, és így érdektelenek. Ezzel voltaképpen egyrészt azt mutatjuk meg, hogy Neumann kiváló intuíciója jól működött, amikor ragaszkodott modellje egyértelmű megoldásához, másrészt pedig azt is, hogy ehhez nincs szükség a gazdaság dekomponálhatóságának feltételezésére. A vizsgált téma szorosan kapcsolódik az általános profitráta meghatározásának - Sraffa által modern formába öntött - Ricardo-féle elemzéséhez, illetve a neoklasszikus növekedéselmélet nevezetes bér-profit, illetve felhalmozás-fogyasztás átváltási határgörbéihez, ami jelzi a téma elméleti és elmélettörténeti érdekességét is. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B16, B23, B41, C62, C67, O41., In the Marx-Neumann version of the Neumann model introduced by Morishima, the use of commodities is split between production and consumption, and wages are determined as the cost of necessary consumption. In such a version it may occur that the equilibrium prices of all goods necessary for consumption are zero, so that the equilibrium wage rate becomes zero too. In fact such a paradoxical case will always arise when the economy is decomposable and the equilibrium not unique in terms of growth and interest rate. It can be shown that a zero equilibrium wage rate will appear in all equilibrium solutions where growth and interest rate are less than maximal. This is another proof of Neumanns genius and intuition, for he arrived at the uniqueness of equilibrium via an assumption that implied that the economy was indecomposable, a condition relaxed later by Kemeny, Morgenstern and Thompson. This situation occurs also in similar models based on Leontief technology and such versions of the Marx-Neumann model make the roots of the problem more apparent. Analysis of them also yields an interesting corollary to Ricardos corn rate of profit: the real cause of the awkwardness is bad specification of the model: luxury commodities are introduced without there being a final demand for them, and production of them becomes a waste of resources. Bad model specification shows up as a consumption coefficient incompatible with the given technology in the more general model with joint production and technological choice. For the paradoxical situation implies the level of consumption could be raised and/or the intensity of labour diminished without lowering the equilibrium rate of the growth and interest. This entails wasteful use of resources and indicates again that the equilibrium conditions are improperly specified. It is shown that the conditions for equilibrium can and should be redefined for the Marx-Neumann model without assuming an indecomposable economy, in a way that ensures the existence of an equilibrium unique in terms of the growth and interest rate coupled with a positive value for the wage rate, so confirming Neumanns intuition. The proposed solution relates closely to findings of Bromek in a paper correcting Morishimas generalization of wage/profit and consumption/investment frontiers.

The local development means the existence of several goods and services and their performance, expressed through adequate marketing policies, thus determining the overall development performance. The paper approaches the economic fundamental issues of local development and in this context it determines the basic components of public service marketing, relevant for local development: price, multiplier of revenues/expenditures, respectively the export multiplier. Those elements will express the ratios between resources and outcomes and their balance is based on a Keynesian model in an open economy.

One the most important things to reveal about each economic crisis that can occur is to understand the past and the present and then maybe to try to predict the future. Economic crisis are not new, sooner or later they have common economic phenomenon and common causes and results. What is it not common are not the solutions. If some crisis can be described as crisis of over production or even oil crisis, the current one sis more a consumption crisis. Is it possible to regulate the market? Is it worth? Will it be a solution? Maybe we can try but what we see is that all the countries that have tried a regulated national economy their increase was either small or none at all.

In this paper we develop algorithms to solve macro econometric models with forward-looking variables based on Newton method for nonlinear systems of equations. The most difficult step for New-ton methods represents the resolution of a large linear system for each iteration. Thus, we compare the performances resulted by solving this linear system using two iterative methods and the direct method. We also describe an implementation of the parallel versions of such algorithms using a software package. Our experiments confirm that the iterative methods have a low computational complexity and storage requirements, but the parallel versions of direct methods show a superior speedup."

The aim of this paper work is to conclude a short confirmation for business ethics. A redundant argument for business ethics, should, in our opinion start from the philosophical field. A major problem with business ethics is the foreclosing of philosophy, society and politics from its debate area. Before understanding the common sense for business ethics, we have to know how to act in a moral way. It is important to understand the identity of the human being, its signification and goals. Therefore the first part of this research enclose to philosophy, pointing out three aspects concerted to morality. We consider that only after a proper analyze of the human being, we can argue for business ethics and its implication in different area. Otherwise “business” becomes a problem for “ethics” and “ethics” become a problem for “business”.

As a social science, economics cannot be reduced to simply an a priori science or an ideology. In addition economics cannot be solely an empirical or a historical science. Economics is a research field which studies only one dimension of human behavior, with the four fields of mathematics, econometrics, ethics and history intersecting one another. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the two parts of the proposition above, in connection with the controversies surrounding the method and the scope of economics: economics as an applied mathematics and economics as a predictive/empirical science.

A gazdaság növekedés felgyorsulása hosszú távon először szükségszerűen csak egy rövid helyreállítási perióduson keresztül valósulhat meg, amelynek során a növekedés ütemét a válságok miatt elmaradt vagy más okból elmulasztott növekedés pótlása gyorsítja fel. Ez azonban messze nem jelenti a hosszú távú növekedési ütem felgyorsulását. A jelenséget először Jánossy Ferenc írta le, akinek megállapításai ma is érvényesek: egy jelentős visszaesés, majd stagnálás után a növekedési ütem 2005 után visszaállt az 1980 óta kialakult 1,5 százalékos hosszú távú ütemre. A Jánossy-féle szakmastruktúra-tényező nem más, mint a tudástőke: a munkaképes lakosság személyes tudása, jártassága és motivációja. Ezek az összetevők egy újrafogalmazott termelési függvény emberi elemei számos új és már korábban is ismert tényező mellett. Az emberi erőforrások nyilvántartása nem kompetenciaalapú, és emiatt a hosszú távú növekedési ütem alacsony szintjét sem tudjuk megmagyarázni. A növekedési ütem ingadozásai mögött elsősorban gazdaságpolitikai hibákat, érdemeket keresünk, holott az emberi beruházások elégtelen szintje jelenti a problémát, amely a múlt örökségnek és a jelen terheinek súlya alatt nem oldódik meg automatikusan. A magyar gazdaság egy újabb helyreállítási periódus előtt áll, s a gazdasági átalakítás alapvető feladata a foglalkoztatható lakosság aktivizálása, enélkül minden növekedési gyorsulás csak átmeneti helyreállítási periódus marad. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B23, C22, E01, O11., Acceleration of economic growth in the long term can primarily be achieved only through a short period of consolidation, in which the growth rate of growth by recession or made up for by growth potential neglected for other reasons. But this is far from equivalent to an acceleration of the long-term growth rate. The phenomenon was described first by Ferenc Jánossy, whose conclusions remain valid to this day: after a substantial slump and a period of stagnation, the growth rate recovered after 2005 the long-term rate of 1.5 per cent that had set in after 1980. Jánossy s trade structure factor amounts to capital in knowledge: the personal know-how, expertise and motivation of the able-bodied population. These factors are the human constituents of a newly formulated production function, along with numerous new and previously known factors. The registration of human resources is competence--based and so it cannot explain the low level of the long-term growth rate either. People tend primarily to see failures and achievements of economic policy behind the failures and achievements of economic policy, when the real problem is inadequate human investment, which will not resolve itself automatically under the weight of the past and present burdens. The Hungarian economy is on the brink of a new period of recovery, and the basic task of economic transformation is to activate the employable population, without which any acceleration of growth will amount only to a temporary period of recovery.

A tanulmány a közgazdaságtanban gyakori módszertani törekvést vizsgálja arra, hogy lehetőség szerint minél több összefüggést kvantitatív formában ábrázoljanak. Itt kulcskérdés, hogy a tények tükrözésének a természettudományokban megszokott módszerei milyen feltételekkel állják meg helyüket a társadalomtudományokban. A tanulmány statisztikai, majd kliometriai példákkal szemlélteti e törekvések néhány korlátját, és hangsúlyozza a "kvantitatív" és az "álkvantitatív" megközelítések közötti különbségtétel fontosságát a közgazdasági elemzések megítélésében.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL ) kód: A12, B23, B25, B41, B52, N01., The study assesses some cases of the more or less ubiquitous methodological approach in economics whereby priority is given to quantitative tools of analysis. Economists often borrow techniques for reflecting facts from the natural sciences, but the limits of these need scrutinizing more closely. They are presented here in examples from statistics and cliometrics. The author stresses the importance of distinguishing "quantitative" from "pseudo-quantitative" products of economic research when such products of knowledge creation are assessed by referees for professional journals or by others.

In this paper, the Johansen and Schaumburg method for seasonal cointegration has been tried to be applied for testing an a priori hypothesized cointegrating money demand variable space. We aim to provide a comprehensive discussion of the significance of the variables in the long-run context as stationary relationships for both zero and bi-annual frequencies. For this purpose, several restrictions have been used to impose for identification purposes of the relevant vectors. We also touch upon the possibility that most time series data have been subject to the stochastic seasonality as opposed to the general acceptance in empirical papers. Our results employing data from the Turkish economy show that it is not possible to estimate only a single theory-accepted money demand relationship in the long-run variable space for both zero and bi-annual frequences, but we are able to identify different vectors somewhat consistent with theoretical arguments for the annual frequency.

The main idea of this paper is to find the most suitable approach to the valuation of foreign currency options in the Serbian financial market. Volatility analysis included the application of the GARCH model which resulted in the marginal volatility measure, which was used in the pricing of basic foreign currency options in the local market. The analysis is completed with an overview of the implementation of FX derivatives in the Serbian financial market.

This paper reviews the conceptual-theoretical framework related to the analysis of the savings-investments relationship in an open economy and reveals the main trends of the respective relationship in the consolidated market economies and emerging countries during the second part of the 20-th century and first decade of the 21-st century. In this context, the author proposes some improvements in the savings-investments relationship analysis methodology, emphasizing the role of the foreign trade balance stock on the values of discrepancy between the savings and investments and of the Feldstein-Horioka econometric model estimated parameters. The respective methodological improvements are applied in the case of Romania for the period 1990-2007. At the end of the paper some guidelines for the savings-investments relationship modeling are presented in order to avoid recession and assure the premises for a sustainable economic growth.

Hahn’s (1982) influential critique of Sraffa (1960) crucially rests on his conclusion that "the only falsifiable entailment of the Sraffa equations is the postulate of a uniform rate of profit". This paper argues that the uniformity of the rates of profit in Sraffa’s system is not an assumption but rather a logical necessity of a system that determines its prices internally. It also shows that Hahn incorrectly identifies Sraffa’s sectoral rates of profit with commodities’ ‘own rates of profit’ of the intertemporal general equilibrium theory. This mistake lies at the heart of Hahn’s claim that Sraffa’s theory is a special case of the general equilibrium theory.Classification JEL: B21, B23, B24, B51

The purpose of this paper is to report estimates of capital input index classified by industries in China from 1981 to 2000. We estimate capital stock based on the perpetual inventory method, and then estimate the flow of capital service and capital service price consistently with the capital compensation in input-output table. In our study, we discuss various assumptions and adjustments made on the data and estimation implementation.

Koopmans gyakorlati problémák megoldása során szerzett tapasztalatait általánosítva fogott hozzá a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell kidolgozásához. Meglepődve tapasztalta, hogy a korabeli közgazdaságtan nem rendelkezett egységes, kellően egzakt termeléselmélettel és fogalomrendszerrel. Úttörő dolgozatában ezért - mintegy a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell elméleti kereteként - lerakta a technológiai halmazok fogalmán nyugvó axiomatikus termeléselmélet alapjait is. Nevéhez fűződik a termelési hatékonyság és a hatékonysági árak fogalmának egzakt definíciója, s az egymást kölcsönösen feltételező viszonyuk igazolása a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell keretében. A hatékonyság manapság használatos, pusztán műszaki szempontból értelmezett definícióját Koopmans csak sajátos esetként tárgyalta, célja a gazdasági hatékonyság fogalmának a bevezetése és elemzése volt. Dolgozatunkban a lineáris programozás dualitási tételei segítségével rekonstruáljuk ez utóbbira vonatkozó eredményeit. Megmutatjuk, hogy egyrészt bizonyításai egyenértékűek a lineáris programozás dualitási tételeinek igazolásával, másrészt a gazdasági hatékonysági árak voltaképpen a mai értelemben vett árnyékárak. Rámutatunk arra is, hogy a gazdasági hatékonyság értelmezéséhez megfogalmazott modellje az Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie-féle általános egyensúlyelméleti modellek közvetlen előzményének tekinthető, tartalmazta azok szinte minden lényeges elemét és fogalmát - az egyensúlyi árak nem mások, mint a Koopmans-féle hatékonysági árak. Végezetül újraértelmezzük Koopmans modelljét a vállalati technológiai mikroökonómiai leírásának lehetséges eszközeként. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B23, B41, C61, D20, D50., Generalizing from his experience in solving practical problems, Koopmans set about devising a linear model for analysing activity. Surprisingly, he found that economics at that time possessed no uniform, sufficiently exact theory of production or system of concepts for it. He set out in a pioneering study to provide a theoretical framework for a linear model for analysing activity by expressing first the axiomatic bases of production theory, which rest on the concept of technological sets. He is associated with exact definition of the concept of production efficiency and efficiency prices, and confirmation of their relation as mutual postulates within the linear model of activity analysis. Koopmans saw the present, purely technical definition of efficiency as a special case; he aimed to introduce and analyse the concept of economic efficiency. The study uses the duality precepts of linear programming to reconstruct the results for the latter. It is shown first that evidence confirming the duality precepts of linear programming is equal in value, and secondly that efficiency prices are really shadow prices in today s sense. Furthermore, the model for the interpretation of economic efficiency can be seen as a direct predecessor of the Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie models of general equilibrium theory, as it contained almost every essential element and concept of them equilibrium prices are nothing other than Koopmans efficiency prices. Finally Koopmans model is reinterpreted as a necessary tool for microeconomic description of enterprise technology.

This text examines the monetary market economy model developed by Benetti and Cartelier (2001). The authors construct a pure exchange monetary economy within a general equilibrium framework. Money is crucial in determining market prices and in coordinating transactions. This monetary approach of markets exhibits an essential feature of a market economy: the decentralization of actions and thus disequilibrium analysis. Individual disequilibria are caused by mistaken expectations. We emphasize the properties of this monetary economy and discuss the approach retained. The model is original and relevant, despite two shortcomings: the formation of expectations and its generalization to more complex market economies.

The purpose of this Opinion article is to discuss some ideas that might lead to papers that are suitable for publication in the Journal of Informatics and Data Mining. The suggestions include the analysis of citations databases, PI-BETA (Papers Ignored – By Even The Authors), model specification and testing, pre-test bias and data mining, international rankings of academic journals based on citations, international rankings of academic institutions based on citations and other factors, and case studies in numerous disciplines in the sciences and social sciences.